The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread

[elfenix 34658]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

They know marketing. Dems are policy wonk dorks who don't know fuck all about it.

years ago i read an article that boiled down to: republicans go to business school and learn how to sell things.  democrats go to government school and learn how to be wonks.

[hobbes2702 13350]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Biden stepping aside ices the election for Trump.  100%.  Zero chance Trump loses.

Biden staying in, with all the issues, maybe puts his chances of winning at 30%-40%.  That's the play.  It sucks, but the Dems need to message things better than ever, and I have little hope of that.

30-40% is not even close. Look at the map and tell me what states Trump turns to win the election 

[Chuckie Finster 22978]

I love Joe. He makes the very shortlist of best presidents in my lifetime.

Anyone trying to wave this off as just a “lost debate” is whistling past the graveyard. His core vulnerability is his age, and his performance validated and accentuated any and all criticisms in this arena. This is not an issue he can improve on or get coached up: he’s just old as fuck.

There is a zero percent chance that the man on that stage tonight will win the election. I hate typing that sentence, but I am as certain of it as I have been of anything in politics. The American people are stupid but simple, and “too old to lead” is about as simple as it gets and takes minimal effort to reach this conclusion.

I understand the arguments against replacing him, I’ve made them myself on this very site. But not doing anything will guarantee MAGA 2.0.

[wildcat09 29556]

Just now, softlynow said:

Which leads me to ask again, why the fuck did we have a June debate?

Because Biden has some comms strategists he needs to fire tomorrow. They didn't tank this, he genuinely did badly. But it's recoverable.

[David Dennison 19441]

1 minute ago, softlynow said:

Which leads me to ask again, why the fuck did we have a June debate? I saw somewhere this was at the Dems urging.

If true, was it because they wanted a possible first run bomb to be buried 4.5 months before the election, with the nomination serving as a scripted bounce back?

I think that's a pretty good guess. Get it over with and see what you need to work on for the next one.

[jimmyjazz 46972]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

30-40% is not even close. Look at the map and tell me what states Trump turns to win the election 

I'm not saying Trump "won" the debate.  I'm saying Biden's performance is likely to keep some voters home.  I think the breakdowns are going to be different this year than they were 4 years ago.  I hope I'm wrong.

[wildcat09 29556]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

30-40% is not even close. Look at the map and tell me what states Trump turns to win the election 

Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia. 

Man, I'm the optimist on the board tonight but "SHOW ME WHERE TRUMP FLIPS?!" has been and is still very silly. He is more likely than not to flip all three of those right now. 

[David Dennison 19441]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I love Joe. He makes the very shortlist of best presidents in my lifetime.

Anyone trying to wave this off as just a “lost debate” is whistling past the graveyard. His core vulnerability is his age, and his performance validated and accentuated any and all criticisms in this arena. This is not an issue he can improve on or get coached up: he’s just old as fuck.

There is a zero percent chance that the man on that stage tonight will win the election. I hate typing that sentence, but I am as certain of it as I have been of anything in politics. The American people are stupid but simple, and “too old to lead” is about as simple as it gets and takes minimal effort to reach this conclusion.

I understand the arguments against replacing him, I’ve made them myself on this very site. But not doing anything will guarantee MAGA 2.0.

You're silly. I like you.

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia. 

Man, I'm the optimist on the board tonight but "SHOW ME WHERE TRUMP FLIPS?!" has been and is still very silly. He is more likely than not to flip all three of those right now. 

Good thing it's June 27.

 

[Hornius Emeritus 12780]

 

 

 

[linux 1760]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not saying Trump "won" the debate.  I'm saying Biden's performance is likely to keep some voters home.  I think the breakdowns are going to be different this year than they were 4 years ago.  I hope I'm wrong.

Only if they lose sight of the prize, "a vote for RFK jr or staying home" is a vote for Trump.

I find it hillarious that the people panicking are the people that would never consider Trump, had he swayed independents then yeah be worried but indies are not jumping off windows.

 

[DixonHur 11940]

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia. 

Man, I'm the optimist on the board tonight but "SHOW ME WHERE TRUMP FLIPS?!" has been and is still very silly. He is more likely than not to flip all three of those right now. 

Don't count out PA

[hobbes2702 13350]

3 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia. 

Man, I'm the optimist on the board tonight but "SHOW ME WHERE TRUMP FLIPS?!" has been and is still very silly. He is more likely than not to flip all three of those right now. 

That doesn’t get him to 270. And I dunno that he’s more likely to flip those. Nothing in the elections those states have had other than Georgia would lean toward Trump turning them.

[troph 25089]

16 minutes ago, softlynow said:

Nah. That's old news. Stories are new stuff. Hawk tuah, not Scottie Scheffler's arrest. Everyone who may actually watch CNN knows Trump is a liar. That's ancient history by their standards.

New drives clicks, sells ads. Run old shit, and you just lost someone to the Stanley Cup or to their TikTok feed.

If the Biden campaign is savvy, they'll break the news cycle with something new. Who knows, maybe they needed this to allow some ignored jr. staffer to run with some risky, but high upside stunt?

Well it’s an early start to the next debate. He’s a liar a convicted felon, he’s going on trial for 60 more felony counts in at least three other jurisdictions and we cannot trust him or afford to elect him needs to be stated 100 times on the stage. 
 

might as well start with tonight. 

[softlynow 1893]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I love Joe. He makes the very shortlist of best presidents in my lifetime.

Anyone trying to wave this off as just a “lost debate” is whistling past the graveyard. His core vulnerability is his age, and his performance validated and accentuated any and all criticisms in this arena. This is not an issue he can improve on or get coached up: he’s just old as fuck.

There is a zero percent chance that the man on that stage tonight will win the election. I hate typing that sentence, but I am as certain of it as I have been of anything in politics. The American people are stupid but simple, and “too old to lead” is about as simple as it gets and takes minimal effort to reach this conclusion.

I understand the arguments against replacing him, I’ve made them myself on this very site. But not doing anything will guarantee MAGA 2.0.

Let's see where things are in a few months, but the bolded seems like a gut shot reaction.

I have a couple aggy friends who texted me after learning the Schloss news, and you'd have thought I personally shot their dog, cut off their testicles fed them to their mother and burned down their church. By this evening, they remembered that they barely cared about college baseball, and our conversations normalized.

I didn't watch the debate, and haven't bothered with low or highlights yet. I can imagine that those of y'all who did are feeling like aggy upon learning that we played Lucy with the football to their Charlie Brown, yet again. That feeling will fade.

If this had been an October debate, different story. It's fucking June. 

[DixonHur 11940]

1 minute ago, linux said:

Only if they lose sight of the prize, "a vote for RFK jr or staying home" is a vote for Trump.

I find it hillarious that the people panicking are the people that would never consider Trump, had he swayed independents then yeah be worried but indies are not jumping off windows.

 

Who else would it be?

[David Dennison 19441]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

That doesn’t get him to 270. And I dunno that he’s more likely to flip those. Nothing in the elections those states have had other than Georgia would lean toward Trump turning them.

But the old man had a bad debate in June and . . . SQUIRREL!!!!

[wildcat09 29556]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

That doesn’t get him to 270. And I dunno that he’s more likely to flip those. Nothing in the elections those states have had other than Georgia would lean toward Trump turning them.

Assuming he holds everything else he won in 2020, that'd give him 272.

[softlynow 1893]

3 minutes ago, linux said:

Only if they lose sight of the prize, "a vote for RFK jr or staying home" is a vote for Trump.

I find it hillarious that the people panicking are the people that would never consider Trump, had he swayed independents then yeah be worried but indies are not jumping off windows.

 

To that point, they're usually independent because they don't pay attention until the end. 

[linux 1760]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Who else would it be?

If independents were panicking about Joe Biden being a senile old fuck, yeah that is who I would be worried about.

They would be panicking had they just found out today that he is old as fuck, except everybody knew that already.

[hobbes2702 13350]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

Assuming he holds everything else he won in 2020, that'd give him 272.

I was looking at 269 but that was old counts I think. Touché. Either way his path to victory is not easy. 

[troph 25089]

Biden didn’t just have a bad debate he made people question his fundamental ability to function. Can he overcome it? Maybe, but he didn’t just lose.

anti Trump, pro abortion votes are probably what carries the day if Biden wins 

[softlynow 1893]

Well, it looks like the cooler heads are now prevailing in this thread.

Fun while it lasted.

[Sawbonz 28081]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

You're silly. I like you.

Good thing it's June 27.

 

Did you see the John Stewart clips? Unless you tell me they were spliced or otherwise altered, it’s bad. And not the kind of bad that improves over the coming months. If adrenochrome and or baby’s blood is a real thing they need to get him on some stat

[Pancho 46053]

The one positive i have coming out of this is the American public has a.) already made up their mind b.) has a short term memory and there will be something else that comes along that causes them to forget this by next Tuesday 

[linux 1760]

Just now, softlynow said:

To that point, they're usually independent because they don't pay attention until the end. 

Its tough to say, some voters are independent like Bernie (or me) but are clearly on the left wing and would never vote for Trump

Some are hardcore fascist neo nazi oh wait they already vote for Trump.

What are left are the centrist independents the ones that think they are smart and fair, they already forgot this stupid June circus debate when they fall asleep.

[staboner 5067]

26 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

In all seriousness they shouldn't bother trying to prep Biden with a bunch of data none of the viewers give a shit about. He's clearly most comfortable attacking Trump. Just let him do that 100% of the time.  The fact that the Dem campaigners and consulting class still thinks they need to prep for a debate on the issues is a huge part of the fucking problem with the party.

exactly. just watch him when the coke kicks in and run with that. if anyone is filling his marbles with data marbles they are the problem (and not Joe's few remaining brain cells) 

[David Dennison 19441]

I posted this in the other thread, but remember, kids . . .

And that was one month before the election.

Breathe.

[troph 25089]

14 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

30-40% is not even close. Look at the map and tell me what states Trump turns to win the election 

The swing states are close enough - under 100,000 votes TOTAL that they can all flip. 

[softlynow 1893]

1 minute ago, linux said:

Its tough to say, some voters are independent like Bernie (or me) but are clearly on the left wing and would never vote for Trump

Some are hardcore fascist neo nazi oh wait they already vote for Trump.

What are left are the centrist independents the ones that think they are smart and fair, they already forgot this stupid June circus debate when they fall asleep.

Let me clarify. Undecideds. Like you say, there are lots of indys that are already decided. They aren't likely changing their vote after tonight.

[troph 25089]

2 minutes ago, linux said:

Its tough to say, some voters are independent like Bernie (or me) but are clearly on the left wing and would never vote for Trump

Some are hardcore fascist neo nazi oh wait they already vote for Trump.

What are left are the centrist independents the ones that think they are smart and fair, they already forgot this stupid June circus debate when they fall asleep.

I think it’s less about that and more about voter motivation in key states. That’s really it. Is an anti Trump pro abortion without enthusiasm for Biden vote enough to defeat Trump? I dunno. 

[DixonHur 11940]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

But the old man had a bad debate in June and . . . SQUIRREL!!!!

It's more like the old man had one job... don't seem like an old man, and not only did he fail, but he looked way worse than expected.

I'm certainly not a geriatric doctor, but I don't see him all the sudden getting peppier and more coherent between now and November.

I mean even his post debate speach was cringe.  He talked about an old John Wayne movie, were John was "a military guy from the North tasked with getting the Apaches back on the reservation"... one, referencing John Wayne movies is not a great way to seem younger, and two, talking about getting Apaches back on the reservation probably isn't great either.

[linux 1760]

1 minute ago, troph said:

The swing states are close enough - under 100,000 votes TOTAL that they can all flip. 

Honestly I think Biden is more likely to flip NC than that he can lose  Michigan, remember they have mail in voting now, making it easier to vote means under represented democrats voting.

[DixonHur 11940]

8 minutes ago, linux said:

If independents were panicking about Joe Biden being a senile old fuck, yeah that is who I would be worried about.

They would be panicking had they just found out today that he is old as fuck, except everybody knew that already.

I'm an Independent... and I'm worried as fuck.  I knew he was old, and had low expectations, but got damn... 

But I also live in Texas so my vote really doesn't matter.

Edited June 28 by DixonHur

[David Dennison 19441]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

It's more like the old man had one job... don't seem like an old man, and not only did he fail, but he looked way worse than expected.

I'm certainly not a geriatric doctor, but I don't see him all the sudden getting peppier and more coherent between now and November.

I mean even his post debate speach was cringe.  He talked about an old John Wayne movie, were John was "a military guy from the North tasked with getting the Apaches back on the reservation"... one, referencing John Wayne movies is not a great way to seem younger, and two, talking about getting Apaches back on the reservation probably isn't great either.

Yeah, he's an elderly man. That's not a secret. The campaign and Democratic Party are going to have to work with what they have. 

[troph 25089]

I’ll go back to this:

[David Dennison 19441]

1 minute ago, troph said:

I’ll go back to this:

Agreed, but it's done and now you have to have at least one more.

[troph 25089]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Agreed, but it's done and now you have to have at least one more.

Yep

[linux 1760]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Yeah, he's an elderly man. That's not a secret. The campaign and Democratic Party are going to have to work with what they have. 

It was not a secret in 2020 either, it was a campaign strategy as well. Its like I am taking crazy pills I would love a repeat of 2020.

[Sawbonz 28081]

6 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Breathe

Hopefully someone is reminding Joe to do that 

[DixonHur 11940]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

I’ll go back to this:

Great point, but that toothpaste is out of the tube.

Anyway, off to sleep.  Can't wait to wake up to the "hot takes" from the Russian and Chinese bots.

[Red Five 41594]

1) There was no winner tonight. Those were the two worst debate performances I’ve ever seen.

2) There is a difference between being able to do the job, and winning an election. I think Biden can do the job, right now, but I don’t think he can win the election. And beating this convicted felon rapist who most of the country fucking hates should be a layup.

3) If a situation occurs where Biden steps down, which dem candidate would have the best chance of beating Trump? Because that’s all that matters now.

[David Dennison 19441]

Just now, linux said:

It was not a secret in 2020 either, it was a campaign strategy as well. Its like I am taking crazy pills I would love a repeat of 2020.

Unfortunately he acts and sounds much older in 2024 than he did in 2020.

[linux 1760]

Just now, David Dennison said:

Unfortunately he acts and sounds much older in 2024 than he did in 2020.

The exact same shit, Biden in 2020 was just as senile as he is now, hell it is Donny who is sounding senile when he did not in 2020.

[David Dennison 19441]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

1) There was no winner tonight. Those were the two worst debate performances I’ve ever seen.

2) There is a difference between being able to do the job, and winning an election. I think Biden can do the job, right now, but I don’t think he can win the election. And beating this convicted felon rapist who most of the country fucking hates should be a layup.

3) If a situation occurs where Biden steps down, which dem candidate would have the best chance of beating Trump? Because that’s all that matters now.

The Democrat with the best chance of beating Donald Trump is Joe Biden. Anyone as politically astute as he is knows that, which is why he won't step down unless his health dictates it.

[linux 1760]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

1) There was no winner tonight. Those were the two worst debate performances I’ve ever seen.

2) There is a difference between being able to do the job, and winning an election. I think Biden can do the job, right now, but I don’t think he can win the election. And beating this convicted felon rapist who most of the country fucking hates should be a layup.

3) If a situation occurs where Biden steps down, which dem candidate would have the best chance of beating Trump? Because that’s all that matters now.

#3 is a civil war, never entertain this idea if you want Trump to lose.

[David Dennison 19441]

Just now, linux said:

The exact same shit, Biden in 2020 was just as senile as he is now, hell it is Donny who is sounding senile when he did not in 2020.

I don't think he's senile at all. He's just old.

[linux 1760]

Just now, David Dennison said:

I don't think he's senile at all. He's just old.

Then you are clearly not paying attention he is confusing people (Obama vs Biden) that is a clear sign of senility. MAGA does not give a shit so that is not an exposure, but Biden was stuttering and confusing people in 2020.

[MrBig 5602]

 

[chainsaw 10243]

I'm having Mack Brown, Charlie Strong, Tom Herman deja vu here.

It's not that he lost, it's how he lost.

This did not feel like Obama/Romney Round One. Not by a longshot.

Backing out at the last minute would have been less damaging than this, for Joe Biden.

I saw on MSNBC they were saying "He had to do one thing and he didn't do it."

True, but an understatement.

It's more accurate to say he had to avoid doing one thing, and he did precisely that one thing he needed -- and WE needed -- him not to do.

After the right wing media universe invested months building a caricature with deceptively-cropped video and misleading soundbites, Biden's performance breathed life into that narrative and it will hound him for the remainder of the race if he does not wisely step aside.

If he had any other opponent, this would be a situation completely beyond recovery.

He can still turn the season around, but heads need to roll.

[linux 1760]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm having Mack Brown, Charlie Strong, Tom Herman deja vu here.

It's not that he lost, it's how he lost.

This did not feel like Obama/Romney Round One. Not by a longshot.

Backing out at the last minute would have been less damaging than this, for Joe Biden.

I saw on MSNBC they were saying "He had to do one thing and he didn't do it."

True, but an understatement.

It's more accurate to say he had to avoid doing one thing, and he did precisely that one thing he needed -- and WE needed -- him not to do.

After the right wing media universe invested months building a caricature with deceptively-cropped video and misleading soundbites, Biden's performance breathed life into that narrative and it will hound him for the remainder of the race if he does not wisely step aside.

If he had any other opponent, this would be a situation completely beyond recovery.

He can still turn the season around, but heads need to roll.

I don't understand this statement, he does have that opponent, its like I am taking crazy pills, if Trump croaks the other guy stands a chance of winning but nobody really fucking cares about that?