The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread

[Captainant 28380]

3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I seem to have wandered into a place I do not belong, I was unaware the world was crumbling around our feet. I will bow out since you all seem to be bringing a much different level of energy to this discussion than me. It was great chatting today. I stand by my statement though "This is probably one of the least consequential elections of our lifetime. Both candidates are ineffective and both parties are determined to not let the other side legislate." So hopefully that can calm some of the nerves in here. Or maybe I am completely out of touch. Whichever it is, I wish you all well. Goodbye for now. 

So in summary, you didn't actually want to discuss - you wanted to propagandize and took your ball and went home when it didn't find an audience.

 

Try texags, you'll probably find more your speed there

[The Royal We 3090]

3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Dude holy shit that’s out of touch. Your life has changed very little. My trans friends lives have changed dramatically. Women’s lives have changed dramatically. Our schools have changed dramatically. Minorities lives have changed dramatically. 
You say you want a more secure border but don’t believe we should round up people. Well that’s what is going to happen. 
You haven’t seen LGBTQ people treated badly in your small town, well we have all seen them demonized and treated badly by our fucking govt. 
There’s no agree to disagree here. You’re plainly wrong but seem to not care because it doesn’t directly effect you.

Seriously. Hornsby is being Pollyanna af. If it doesn't effect me and I don't see it with my own eyes then it must not be a real thing.

I think there is a bit of boy-cried-wolf effect going on with the notion that this is the most important election in our lives, but I don't know if our Democracy ever recovers from Project 2025 and whatever other authoritarian BS comes out of 2nd Trump term. The tariffs and deportation of 10-12 million people alone will be devastating to our economy. With a cabinet of nothing but yes men and grifters around this time there will be nothing to hold back the worst impulses. 

I don't know what the best path is towards avoiding it, but I'm pretty despondent this morning after seeing just how old and feeble Biden looked last night. He is just not equipped to confront the jetstream of BS coming out of Trump's mouth. The team that prepared him with a bunch of data instead of nailing down the best zingers to attack Trump should be tarred and feathered today. Fuck everything.

[troph 25088]

6 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

One of my best friends for about 10 years just had to move because of worries about access to their needed drugs for transition. This whole “I don’t see it” thing is just bullshit

i had to go to planned parenthood for mine this year. very few GPs out there will see us. I'm without a GP and have been for almost 18 months (I'm almost 49, I'm at the age where I need routine screenings yearly). The list of confirmed trans friendly GPs in the greater austin area is under 10.

Edited June 28 by troph

[wildcat09 29555]

1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Most of the country is moderate. I am in the majority. The majority of people I know don't think the world is crumbling. We just have different views. It's okay. I am actually bowing out now though. Good day. 

This is a meaningless statement.

[closetohumping 17776]

12 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Dude holy shit that’s out of touch. Your life has changed very little. My trans friends lives have changed dramatically. Women’s lives have changed dramatically. Our schools have changed dramatically. Minorities lives have changed dramatically. 
You say you want a more secure border but don’t believe we should round up people. Well that’s what is going to happen. 
You haven’t seen LGBTQ people treated badly in your small town, well we have all seen them demonized and treated badly by our fucking govt. 
There’s no agree to disagree here. You’re plainly wrong but seem to not care because it doesn’t directly effect you.

Definitely some ugly moments for minorities when Don won in 2020. 

[hobbes2702 13350]

Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Most of the country is moderate. I am in the majority. The majority of people I know don't think the world is crumbling. We just have different views. It's okay. I am actually bowing out now though. Good day. 

Again, it’s not about what the people you know think. It’s about what’s actually happening to people. Honestly what are you even talking about?

Do you think LGBTQ folks are not dealing with truly life altering issues that are caused by our govt?

Do you think immigrant families weren’t actually separated?

Do you think we aren’t actually rolling back environmental protections?

 

[linux 1760]

10 minutes ago, Goredho said:

If the Democratic Party insists on giving voters “you are just gonna have to trust us as to who is really going to be running the country for the next four years” as the option to Felonious Trump they will lose and deserve being burned to the ground.

This is stupid, a backroom deal is exactly this is, Biden won multiple primaries and elections, you people might as well be working for Donny.

[TexArcher 38816]

22 minutes ago, troph said:

This is still an easily winnable election. The only thing that matters is calling Trump a convicted felon, rapist, liar, cheater, racist, grifter over, and over, and OVER again. He has to debate him one more time, that's Biden's answer every time.

I agree with this, but when thinking of the middle, the undecideds, I can't help but think that this might get a lot of them not to vote for Trump, without motivating them to go vote for a guy who should be in a nursing home.

I feel like there's a lot of wishful thinking going on here with all this, "it's not THAT bad."  Not you, personally, but like half this board.

Yeah, it really is that bad.  It's a fucking disaster.

This country has to choose between a guy who isn't fit to run a lemonade stand and a wannabe fascist.  And a lot of people are gonna just stay home.  And that plays into Trump's hands, because his base is a lot more fanatical than Biden's.

Edited June 28 by TexArcher

[linux 1760]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

Again, it’s not about what the people you know think. It’s about what’s actually happening to people. Honestly what are you even talking about?

Do you think LGBTQ folks are not dealing with truly life altering issues that are caused by our govt?

Do you think immigrant families weren’t actually separated?

Do you think we aren’t actually rolling back environmental protections?

 

In 1940 the Chamberlain Tories thought they were moderates, they were not they were in bed with Hitler. 20 years ago I argued in hornfans that they were just buying time, nope was wrong they were actually fascists.

[closetohumping 17776]

8 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

One of my best friends for about 10 years just had to move because of worries about access to their needed drugs for transition. This whole “I don’t see it” thing is just bullshit

I definitely know of gays leaving Austin because of Abbott 

[956 Worldwide 35516]

Most of the country is moderate and yet the person likely to win uses the most apocalyptic language and calls for the most drastic and norm-shattering actions.

Those statements don’t line up.  We’ve just accepted the unacceptable as normal for the right side of the aisle.  
 

The likely winner tried to avoid leaving office, denied he lost, and egged on the violent attack on his own VP.  IF YOU ARE OK WITH THAT YOU ARE NOT A MODERATE. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

And a lot of people are gonna just stay home.  And that plays into Trump's hands, because his base is a lot more fanatical than Biden's.

This is our concern, dude. 

[immamac 44197]

2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Most of the country is moderate. I am in the majority. The majority of people I know don't think the world is crumbling. We just have different views. It's okay. I am actually bowing out now though. Good day. 

You are delusional. You think everything is going fine and that there isn't significant erosion all around you to the point where major infrastructure is failing or in free fall collapse with no real fix?

You don't see the massive problems happening in public education in a large contingent of states?

You don't see a significant and ongoing national security and international relations crisis happening in which the current administration is balancing and the potential administration will completely fuck up? Caused by the erosion they caused?

You can say all you want about being a moderate and not feeling like the world is crumbling but that's just putting your head in the sand and your fingers in your ears saying lalallalalalala I can't hear you. 

It's actually absurd when there is so many demonstrable and provable things happening as a direct connection to the prior trump administration and the amount of work to repair those things has been immense. 

Do yourself a favor and pull your head out of your ass man. 

[956 Worldwide 35516]

“I don’t want this competent and ethical but feeble guy. Bring on the vigorous authoritarian criminal.”

That’s truly a wild take. 

[wildcat09 29555]

5 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I agree with this, but when thinking of the middle, the undecideds, I can't help but think that this might get a lot of them not to vote for Trump, without motivating them to go vote for a guy who should be a nursing home.

I feel like there's a lot of wishful thinking going on here with all this, "it's not THAT bad."  Not you, personally, but like half this board.

Yeah, it really is that bad.  It's a fucking disaster.

This country has to choose between a guy who isn't fit to run a lemonade stand and a wannabe fascist.  And a lot of people are gonna just stay home.  And that plays into Trump's hands, because his base is a lot more fanatical than Biden's.

It's been this bad for awhile. It's not like Biden was polling at 60% before last night. A bunch of people just didn't want to admit that it's going to be close and Trump has a good chance of winning. 

[Poester 108]

9 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Most of the country is moderate. I am in the majority. The majority of people I know don't think the world is crumbling. We just have different views. It's okay. I am actually bowing out now though. Good day. 

Come home my friend, you know you want to. We’re here with open arms. 

[closetohumping 17776]

2 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

“I don’t want this competent and ethical but feeble guy. Bring on the vigorous authoritarian criminal.”

That’s truly a wild take. 

How can you watch Biden last night and still say “oh I’ll definitely vote for him?”   That was a disaster.  Yes I understand it may not be a vote for Joe but a vote against Don.   But that was awful

[YGIFS 19456]

Beating a dead horse as Lobo is wont to do.  Just gotta get a few million of Trump's middle 25mm voter bloc to sit this out in a few states that don't have any high profile races down-ballot (Gov, Sen., et. al.).  Last night didn't help at all, it made them think "Hey, he's a convicted asshole but he sounded like the bold guy I liked in 2016 & 2020.  Honey, get out my voter registration card.  We're gonna vote for him after all."  

Meanwhile the DNC is worried about how the 9 college kids who actually vote in Michigan feel about Biden's stance on Gaza.  

[hobbes2702 13350]

Just now, Poester said:

Come home my friend, you know you want to. We’re here with open arms. 

@The_Great_Hornsby this is what calling yourself a moderate and denying what’s happening looks like. 
When these are the people on your side, it’s time to reevaluate your position

[TexArcher 38816]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It's been this bad for awhile. It's not like Biden was polling at 60% before last night. A bunch of people just didn't want to admit that it's going to be close and Trump has a good chance of winning. 

Agreed.  I watched people on this board tell me that Donald Trump had no chance while he was ahead multiple percentage points in the polls.  Before this fiasco.

[956 Worldwide 35516]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

How can you watch Biden last night and still say “oh I’ll definitely vote for him?”   That was a disaster.  Yes I understand it may not be a vote for Joe but a vote against Don.   But that was awful

I didn’t watch. I will definitely vote for Joe Biden because it is the only meaningful vote for a democratic and constitutional order. 

[hobbes2702 13350]

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Agreed.  I watched people on this board tell me that Donald Trump had no chance while he was ahead multiple percentage points in the polls.  Before this fiasco.

Don def has a chance, but I don’t think any of those polls matter at all.

I still think he has a hard path to victory. At some point he needs to gain some new voters and that just isn’t happening.

[Incredulity 11859]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

“Democracy dies in the darkness.”

this is too important for that/moral highground leftists

[Red Five 41593]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

At some point he needs to gain some new voters

Oh I think we watched that happen last night.

[hobbes2702 13350]

Just now, Red Five said:

Oh I think we watched that happen last night.

No we didn’t. Joe I’m sure lost some voters, which is the issue, but Donald isn’t gaining anyone.

[babysdaddy 2731]

9 hours ago, chainsaw said:

 

After the right wing media universe invested months building a caricature with deceptively-cropped video and misleading soundbites, Biden's performance breathed life into that narrative and it will hound him for the remainder of the race if he does not wisely step aside.

 

Buddy, it may be time to realize the caricature with deceptively-cropped video and misleading soundbites was actually the caricature of a competent and vigorous man.

Biden is going to get rolled. And this isn't the West Wing, Michelle Obama and/or The fucking Rock ain't walking through that door. 

[closetohumping 17776]

The rock is losing popularity.   Bring on governor newsome

[linux 1760]

4 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Don def has a chance, but I don’t think any of those polls matter at all.

I still think he has a hard path to victory. At some point he needs to gain some new voters and that just isn’t happening.

https://www.newsweek.com/election-results-gop-democrats-ohio-kentucky-1841832
 

Quote

 

The Democratic incumbent managed to win another term in the governor's mansion in Kentucky, beating Cameron by 52.5 points to 47.5 as of early Wednesday morning.

 

Polls showed 47-47 dead heat on election night... 8 months ago, polls have been extremely wrong since the orange clown, remember how 2022 was going to be a bloodbath? My guess is that Gen Z has not been easy to track.

You only lose if you give up the fight. That said people need to put their money where their mouth is and volunteer. We are at the endgame now.

[closetohumping 17776]

19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This is our concern, dude. 

Yes.  This is a tight race

[Red Five 41593]

I think there's a legit chance Biden gets the Nixon treatment. Where a group of prominent dems, intervention style, tell him it's time to step aside for the good of the country. Because I think it's political suicide right now, up and down the ballot.

That wasn't a one time thing, IMO. The POD guys said last night (that sure was a fun listen) that they were at an event with him a couple of weeks ago, and he was the same then as he was last night. He just does not have those verbal skills anymore. I'm trying to imagine my grandfather at that age running for president. It would look about the same.

[Woodrow Call 494]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

We are totally fucked. Totes fucked.

A succinct but thorough analysis. 

[gsoda3 3358]

11 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

Seems like he’s not planning to step aside.

 

he looks and sounds better here than at any point during the debate.  the lack of a studio audience might've been a big factor, he seems to draw energy from them.  like a dementor.

[C-Man 27684]

1 hour ago, YGIFS said:

Trump was old and fat, but happened to capture lightning in a bottle in 2016 between his ego, the politically sidelined white stupids, Obama leaving office, etc.  

Biden was already old, but was so juiced in by the Clinton/Obama Democratic machine, he was picked to end the madness of Trump.  

The Republicans fell completely in lock-step with Trump from 2021 to 2024.  The Democrats had that same span of time to let Joe surround himself with very capable people to take care of some very serious issues, and they did just that.  They also had that same timespan to groom and introduce a new candidate for 2024 that wouldn't undermine Joe's efforts on important goals.  There is a way to do that, and they fucked it up at every turn.  So this is what we get.  Obviously not as significant as POTUS, but there are very substantial institutions, corporations, lower elected offices, etc. that have someone take the reins while a younger person is prepped for taking over in the intermediate-term timeline.  It's a delicate balance but there are tens of thousands of examples of how it can be done effectively.  But nope, the Democratic party said, "Yeah, we're 50/50 with a convicted felon and rapist...we could plan ahead...or we could just take the coin toss."  

"They were glorious and they changed the world -- and then we fucked up the end game."

 

1 hour ago, immamac said:

You haven't seen him ramble on unintelligibly like a lost dementia patient in a nursing home and turn an answer from abortion to immigrants killing women? Did you just conveniently miss that one? 

What about the one where no one even knew what he said and trump felt so bad for him he kinda just left it alone and said "I have no idea what he just said and I don't he did either" 

Last night wasn't an old man. Last night was unacceptable for any public appearance for the President of the United States of America. He can't be seen as a completely weak and incompetent leader and old man with dementia to the rest of the world, let alone in his own country for an election. It was very very bad, there is no conspiracy here. He was fucking lost for nearly half the debate and the other half he was seemingly exhausted and confused. 

I agree that he looked absolutely terrible but as long as Joe Biden can fog a mirror, he's a better choice than Trump.

 

53 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

4 more years of trump is just 4 more years of split government and nothing getting accomplished, and then we get fresh young candidates in 2028. Some of yall are very dramatic. Life will go on and 2028 will be a chance for America to emerge from this period of time with a much better future. Just sucks that this cycle is basically washed, because nothing I saw on stage was inspiring last night. 

Oh, you sweet summer child.

 

33 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I seem to have wandered into a place I do not belong, I was unaware the world was crumbling around our feet. I will bow out since you all seem to be bringing a much different level of energy to this discussion than me. It was great chatting today. I stand by my statement though "This is probably one of the least consequential elections of our lifetime. Both candidates are ineffective and both parties are determined to not let the other side legislate." So hopefully that can calm some of the nerves in here. Or maybe I am completely out of touch. Whichever it is, I wish you all well. Goodbye for now. 

What color is the sky in your world?

 

29 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Most of the country is moderate. I am in the majority. The majority of people I know don't think the world is crumbling. We just have different views. It's okay. I am actually bowing out now though. Good day. 

A lot of those "moderates" will hold their nose and vote for Donald because there's an "R" next to his name and he's going to maybe cut some of their taxes.

 

11 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

No we didn’t. Joe I’m sure lost some voters, which is the issue, but Donald isn’t gaining anyone.

If Joe loses "some voters" in the wrong places, Baron Von Shittsinpants doesn't have to gain any to win the election and then we're turbo-fucked.

[Brisketexan 106611]

he looks and sounds better here than at any point during the debate.  the lack of a studio audience might've been a big factor, he seems to draw energy from them.  like a dementor.

I do love how people are all about “it’s the OBLIGATION of the DNC to pressure Biden to step aside because he’s old and feeble”….but put ZERO burden on the GQP to “maybe don’t unify behind an avowed, pathologically lying, criminal, rapist, narcissist fascist.”
Breathtaking. The bar for Dems is “be perfect.” The bar for the GQP is…”there is no bar.”

[Macklemore 2945]

1 hour ago, linux said:

Funny I remember a pandemic, I remember unemployment reaching an all time high, I remember an economy that was saved by the greatest deficit spending of all time, I also remember him egging on Putin to start WWIII.

Funnily enough a second term would be worse.

Trump egging Putin to start WWIII. That’s fucking rich. We’re closer to war with Russia now than we’ve ever been since 1962. Your President has been the one itching for a war. Not a single American life is worth dying for Ukraine.

[linux 1760]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I do love how people are all about “it’s the OBLIGATION of the DNC to pressure Biden to step aside because he’s old and feeble”….but put ZERO burden on the GQP to “maybe don’t unify behind an avowed, pathologically lying, criminal, rapist, narcissist fascist.”
Breathtaking. The bar for Dems is “be perfect.” The bar for the GQP is…”there is no bar.”

I mean we all know this is true, but the same thing was true in 2020, do any of you think Biden was ever a good candidate? he still crushed Donny in 2020, I thought he sucked but he kept winning primaries and elections. Throw it all away for a democrat civil war? real smart there guys.

[956 Worldwide 35516]

I would trade the entire Freedom Caucus for one Ukrainian NCO so that statement is not entirely accurate. 

[linux 1760]

2 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Trump egging Putin to start WWIII. That’s fucking rich. We’re closer to war with Russia now than we’ve ever been since 1962. Your President has been the one itching for a war. Not a single American life is worth dying for Ukraine.

Funny none of them have died.

Anyhow I am not debating dishonest actors, for lurkers this was his plan, aka Putin take what you want.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/

Inside Donald Trump’s secret, long-shot plan to end the war in Ukraine

Foreign policy experts and some Republicans warned that pressuring Ukraine to cede land would reward Putin

[YGIFS 19456]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I would trade the entire Freedom Caucus for one Ukrainian NCO so that statement is not entirely accurate. 

I would trade the entire Freedom Caucus (plus Boebert's ex-husband) for one dishonorably discharged Ukrainian E-1 and some packing tape.  

[Biff Tannen 46060]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

We are totally fucked. Totes fucked.

Well, I'm not.  A lot of people are.  But I'll be fine.  I'll vote against fascism, but if the rest of America is too stupid to do so, well, good luck everyone.

[Brisketexan 106611]

I would trade the entire Freedom Caucus (plus Boebert's ex-husband) for one dishonorably discharged Ukrainian E-1 and some packing tape.  

….and this paddle game.

[Neonmoon 38130]

If Trump wins

Ukraine loses. They either surrender more land in a "peace deal" because without US support, they know it's futile to keep fighting, or they keep going with EU support, which could lead to EU troops on the ground, and Trump withdrawing from NATO and us watching our allies die while we watch like cowards and traitors. Taiwan is also fucked. 

Civil War is more likely. Not now, or even in the near future, but more institutions will be eroded and shut down. Department of Education is shut down. Trump appoints more Supreme Court judges, more insane opinions. More laws based on teh bible. More "other" people will flee red states to blue states. Creating more division. If Red/Blue states have different fundamental rights for its citizens, are they the same country?

It's just all so sad and predictable. 

[Captainant 28380]

8 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Trump egging Putin to start WWIII. That’s fucking rich. We’re closer to war with Russia now than we’ve ever been since 1962. Your President has been the one itching for a war. Not a single American life is worth dying for Ukraine.

Yeah I wonder why america was closer to russia while trump had the con....

[troph 25088]

40 minutes ago, Poester said:

Come home my friend, you know you want to. We’re here with open arms. *

* for white, cisgender, straight property owning men.

[Dahobbs 18182]

12 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Trump egging Putin to start WWIII. That’s fucking rich. We’re closer to war with Russia now than we’ve ever been since 1962. Your President has been the one itching for a war. Not a single American life is worth dying for Ukraine.

I disagree. I can think of a couple we could trade with easily. 

Edited June 28 by Dahobbs

[Vegas64 705]

All this consternation goes away if you replace Kamala with Newsome as the VP nod.

• You get assurance and comfort that if Biden croaks, you get the guy who was talked out of running against an incumbant in 2024 and who is the 2028 odds on favorite anyways.
• You get assurance and comfort that you have a strong politician as "the hand" of the feeble old Biden, and best case scenario in the later years-- say 2026-2027 at his stage of seemingly rapid slowing down-- you are comfortable that the VP is running things.
• You get Newsome with "experience" by being a shadow president, potentially, for 2028 and get a gray-area of an incumbancy bump you can use
• You get to avoid any blowback from the Dem base who would be upset about "yet another white, straight man of priv" getting the nomination

It just makes too much political engineering sense.

The downside is you do have to deal with the blowback in the short term for sidelining Kamala and puting her out to pasture for Newsome which could come across horribly to some of the base who thinks its race-based, gender-based discrimination, lack of representation, and otherwise. But I think, fair or unfair, Kamala doesn't have the personal brand as super competent and accomplished in her limited time (unlike, say Mayor Pete who did a great job of actually tackling issues and communicating his wins on TV for everyone to know he's actually doing stuff), that you can for sure say she's a better politician than Newsome.

[wildcat09 29555]

13 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Trump egging Putin to start WWIII. That’s fucking rich. We’re closer to war with Russia now than we’ve ever been since 1962. Your President has been the one itching for a war. Not a single American life is worth dying for Ukraine.

I’d gladly trade you for some hot Ukrainian women.

[closetohumping 17776]

18 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I do love how people are all about “it’s the OBLIGATION of the DNC to pressure Biden to step aside because he’s old and feeble”….but put ZERO burden on the GQP to “maybe don’t unify behind an avowed, pathologically lying, criminal, rapist, narcissist fascist.”
Breathtaking. The bar for Dems is “be perfect.” The bar for the GQP is…”there is no bar.”

That cake 🎂 is baked.  We cant change that.  We have to make the best of this situation and that may involve the Biden’s swallowing their pride

[Goredho 17627]

43 minutes ago, linux said:

This is stupid, a backroom deal is exactly this is, Biden won multiple primaries and elections, you people might as well be working for Donny.

And you might as well be this guy.  He was pretty adamant that all was well and success was assured if people just maintained faith, too.  Bottom line, it’s ridiculous that the only viable opposition to Trump’s bid for an American Apartheid was the D candidate that limped onto the debate stage last night.  I can’t blame anyone for staying home on Election Day.

[Red Five 41593]

3 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

All this consternation goes away if you replace Kamala with Newsome as the VP nod.

• You get assurance and comfort that if Biden croaks, you get the guy who was talked out of running against an incumbant in 2024 and who is the 2028 odds on favorite anyways.
• You get assurance and comfort that you have a strong politician as "the hand" of the feeble old Biden, and best case scenario in the later years-- say 2026-2027 at his stage of seemingly rapid slowing down-- you are comfortable that the VP is running things.
• You get Newsome with "experience" by being a shadow president, potentially, for 2028 and get a gray-area of an incumbancy bump you can use
• You get to avoid any blowback from the Dem base who would be upset about "yet another white, straight man of priv" getting the nomination

It just makes too much political engineering sense.

The downside is you do have to deal with the blowback in the short term for sidelining Kamala and puting her out to pasture for Newsome which could come across horribly to some of the base who thinks its race-based, gender-based discrimination, lack of representation, and otherwise. But I think, fair or unfair, Kamala doesn't have the personal brand as super competent and accomplished in her limited time (unlike, say Mayor Pete who did a great job of actually tackling issues and communicating his wins on TV for everyone to know he's actually doing stuff), that you can for sure say she's a better politician than Newsome.

aka the "fire some coordinators" stage, about six months before the head coach is fired.