The WAY too early June Presidential Debate thread

[David Dennison 18661]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

There is great answer by Newsom to the “stand down” media shit. Someone with Twitter post the clip

I'm beginning to think having this debate in June was genius.

Just now, Js1 said:

The party apparatus has. The bed wetters have not. 

Well said.

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

7 minutes ago, linux said:

You are all playing into Donald Trump's hand

In all sincerity, anyone watching last night via a translator likely had a severely different experience than the rest of us.

[Captainant 27472]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

What the fuck happened to him last night?

 

 

being an 80+ year old with a cold is gonna do a fuckin doozie on you

[Red Five 40675]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

In all sincerity, anyone watching last night via a translator likely had a severely different experience than the rest of us.

Is there one for English too?

[chainsaw 9838]

We're prone to overreact. But it's crucial for the party not to underreact. I'm gruntled that at the very least the right people have acknowledged that there's a problem. I would be apoplectic if MSNBC and Morning Joe were trying to sell a fantasy that last night wasn't a 66-3 moment.

That's a huge step considering how stubborn the Democratic party's powers that be are. If Joe Biden had surviving children who were worth a shit, they would be pleading with him to do the right thing.

[closetohumping 17406]

31 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

Do we have polling data of Newsom v baboon, and if it exists, do you trust it?

Irrelevant.  Looks like it’s ride or die with Biden time

[immamac 42537]

27 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

This thread remind me of an early loss in season football thread. 

Those teams rarely win championships. 

[retread 2951]

11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

There is great answer by Newsom to the “stand down” media shit. Someone with Twitter post the clip

 

[linux 1659]

8 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

In all sincerity, anyone watching last night via a translator likely had a severely different experience than the rest of us.

Lol I don't fucking care I will take it, that said you are wrong, you can't fix stammering and blank stares through translation.

BTW I saw the highlights of the 2020 debate you linked and Biden had that lame open mouth incredulity. Honestly I think it is a positive for him despite what Jon Stewart thinks.

['stache 21777]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

Those teams rarely win championships. 

More like losing Game 1, probably a better analogy. Especially when the opponent is pure aggy.

[linux 1659]

Once again we are not fans we are the players, we decide if we let nervous Tom on the sidelines make us choke a handoff.

Getting rid of Biden is impossible, get it through your heads and even if a divine character of bible fame, united the tribes it was still going to be close result (relatively speaking I think 2020 was a dominant loss for Trump)

[LTbear 4161]

3 minutes ago, linux said:

Once again we are not fans we are the players, we decide if we let nervous Tom on the sidelines make us choke a handoff.

Getting rid of Biden is impossible, get it through your heads and even if a divine character of bible fame, united the tribes it was still going to be close result (relatively speaking I think 2020 was a dominant loss for Trump)

Look my man, I mostly agree with what you're saying but you also need to stop the hyperbole. It's difficult, and risky, and arduous, and awkward. But it absolutely is not "impossible" to replace Biden, and people are free to have that discussion. 

Edited June 28 by LTbear

[linux 1659]

1 minute ago, LTbear said:

Look my man, I mostly agree with what you're saying but you also need to stop the hyperbole. It's difficult, and risky, and arduous, and awkward. But it absolutely is not "impossible" to replace Biden, and people are free to have that discussion. 

Sure like people need to have the discussion that he is a lizzard person from mars, not. at the end of the day panic crying about plan B only depresses the vote.

I know it is still 4 months away, but if every little gaffe from now until then brings the doom brigade we are fulfilling prophecy.

Polls did not move, survey groups moved for Biden, stop panicking.

[Dbeasy 14971]

28 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I'm beginning to think having this debate in June was genius.

Well said.

I disagree with you guys a lot, but you might be right here. I just wish it wouldn’t have gotten to this. 

[MrBig 5290]

9 minutes ago, linux said:

Once again we are not fans we are the players, we decide if we let nervous Tom on the sidelines make us choke a handoff.

Getting rid of Biden is impossible, get it through your heads and even if a divine character of bible fame, united the tribes it was still going to be close result (relatively speaking I think 2020 was a dominant loss for Trump)

We dumped Turtle Tom when it was obvious the product sucked and the donors were unhappy. But we’re at the stage where if we dump Biden now, the new candidate has a strong change of going 5-7 before turning things around in a year or two. 

[MissingInAction 24828]

45 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

This thread remind me of an early loss in season football thread. 

The sharts are similar.

[linux 1659]

Sad thing is based on early polling it was not even a loss but a tie.

[gmr548 16519]

44 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

This thread remind me of an early loss in season football thread. 

Anyway, I didn't watch last night because I don't hate myself. It sounds like the only thing that could have happened to move the needle - Biden looking old, tired, etc. - happened. This will mostly fade away and people will revert to their baseline stances as typically happens with these debates; but the 1-2 point bump Biden got from Trump's conviction is likely gone. And in an election this close that could be decisive.

The replace Biden conversation should have been had a year ago if anyone was serious about it. Now it's just handwringing. Regardless of how anyone feels, we're past the point of no return.

[LTbear 4161]

Just now, linux said:

Sure like people need to have the discussion that he is a lizzard person from mars, not. at the end of the day panic crying about plan B only depresses the vote.

I know it is still 4 months away, but if every little gaffe from now until then brings the doom brigade we are fulfilling prophecy.

Polls did not move, survey groups moved for Biden, stop panicking.

I'll take your response as admitting your last statement was incorrect. Of course, if you're equating last night with a "little gaffe," that's just as ridiculous a statement. Moreover, you know full well that polls about last night are meaningless for at least a few days, so that enough data can be gathered and enough time has passed to let people catch up via the social media snippets, which is how most will consume it. 

[Ghost of LL 15494]

27 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Irrelevant.  Looks like it’s ride or die with Biden time

Then we shall die.  Because that horse isn't carrying anyone.

16 minutes ago, linux said:

Once again we are not fans we are the players, we decide if we let nervous Tom on the sidelines make us choke a handoff.

Getting rid of Biden is impossible, get it through your heads and even if a divine character of bible fame, united the tribes it was still going to be close result (relatively speaking I think 2020 was a dominant loss for Trump)

It is not impossible, and it's disingenuous to say otherwise.

And to completely ignore the possibility in light of that performance last night is asinine. 

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

13 minutes ago, linux said:

Sure like people need to have the discussion that he is a lizzard person from mars, not. at the end of the day panic crying about plan B only depresses the vote.

I know it is still 4 months away, but if every little gaffe from now until then brings the doom brigade we are fulfilling prophecy.

Polls did not move, survey groups moved for Biden, stop panicking.

I mean, it's way too early to be making any claims like this.

 

 

[chainsaw 9838]

This would have been a much different debate if it was held around 5PM Eastern.

I've been around a lot of unretired old folks, who are sharp as hell, can follow along complex ideas, and are incredibly comfortable with modern technology. Guys (and gals) who work with their minds more than their hands, like engineers, accountants, psychiatrists, and even some bankers.

All of them without fail, after about age 70, their stamina runs off a cliff a few hours before their bedtimes. Biden's body language reminded me of theirs, after they've hit "the wall."

Once I realized this about them, I learned to work around and accommodate their limitations. During their peak hours, they are absolutely crushing it, cognitively speaking as well as in their productivity, and they are able to hang with people 50 years their junior.

That is the clearest explanation for the different versions of Biden we're seeing.

I also strongly suspect Trump has had episodes as bad or worse.

[linux 1659]

2 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I'll take your response as admitting your last statement was incorrect. Of course, if you're equating last night with a "little gaffe," that's just as ridiculous a statement. Moreover, you know full well that polls about last night are meaningless for at least a few days, so that enough data can be gathered and enough time has passed to let people catch up via the social media snippets, which is how most will consume it. 

Oh so the 66% that said Trump won should be thrown out then? you are contradicting yourself.

For the record consuming social media is not the same as a presidential debate, the eyeballs were the point of these debates and it was down like 33% in ratings. From last time.

 

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean, it's way too early to be making any claims like this.

 

 

I will take 538 over who the fuck knows is this.

[immamac 42537]

@linux I agree with what you are saying. 

This isn't a game, we aren't fans. 

This is a duty, we are citizens. 

[LTbear 4161]

3 minutes ago, linux said:

Oh so the 66% that said Trump won should be thrown out then? you are contradicting yourself.

For the record consuming social media is not the same as a presidential debate, the eyeballs were the point of these debates and it was down like 33% in ratings. From last time.

 

I'm not contradicting shit; my worry stems from what I saw. I haven't looked at a single poll on the damn thing, because they're completely meaningless this early.

More people are going to watch themis via social media snippets than watched the whole thing. No shit the ratings are down, of course they are. Do you not remember the circumstances last time?

Edited June 28 by LTbear

[ChiTownDoc 21102]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

What can the Democrats do about it?

He’s not the nominee yet.  Crazier shit has happened.  Like 40% of the country falling in love with the most vile fuck anyone could dream up.  

['stache 21777]

18 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean, it's way too early to be making any claims like this.

 

 

I don't know what the swing might have been, but it sure as shit wasn't this, pure bullshit.

[chainsaw 9838]

25 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Now it's just handwringing.

I disagree here, because there's no way MSNBC would have been even entertaining the discussion unless some DNC powers gave it the green light on text messages

[chainsaw 9838]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't know what the swing might have been, but it sure as shit wasn't this, pure bullshit.

This is the Jonathan Brooks torn ACL of politics

[linux 1659]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I don't know what the swing might have been, but it sure as shit wasn't this, pure bullshit.

After some research it is a New York Post poller. The biggest bullshit is 50% Trump has never had those numbers, like ever. There is always always a hard ceiling of 46% or so. Biden can be trailing or leading based on where he polls but 46% is always around the ballpark of Trump's ceiling.

[gmr548 16519]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I disagree here, because there's no way MSNBC would have been even entertaining the discussion unless some DNC powers gave it the green light on text messages

Accepting this assumption for aske of argument, am I supposed to think the DNC is not prone to handwringing?

[MrBig 5290]

9 minutes ago, linux said:

I will take 538 over who the fuck knows is this.

One week before the election in 2016, 538 predicted a Clinton win at 66.9% (down from 85% the week before).

In 2020 they predicted a Biden victory at 90% and the election ended up being a close Electoral College race. 538 also predicted a 97% chance of Democrats winning the House and said they might expand their majority by a few seats.

Everyone relying on polls is in for a rude awakening if they think Biden has this in the bag. People like me were saying this in 2016 and got laughed out of the room for thinking Hilary could lose to a piece of shit like Trump.

[chainsaw 9838]

15 minutes ago, MrBig said:

One week before the election in 2016, 538 predicted a Clinton win at 66.9% (down from 85% the week before).

In 2020 they predicted a Biden victory at 90% and the election ended up being a close Electoral College race. 538 also predicted a 97% chance of Democrats winning the House and said they might expand their majority by a few seats.

Everyone relying on polls is in for a rude awakening if they think Biden has this in the bag. People like me were saying this in 2016 and got laughed out of the room for thinking Hilary could lose to a piece of shit like Trump.

1/3 chance of losing is still fucking huge.

Imagine a doctor telling you 1/3 of their patients don't survive the experimental treatment you want to try. Do you like those odds?

[TexArcher 37531]

54 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean, it's way too early to be making any claims like this.

 

 

 

I'm as negative on what happened last night as anyone, but this smells like bullshit.

I could see Biden's number dropping significantly, and Trump's staying more or less the same, or maybe jumping a point or two.

But I'm supposed to believe that Biden's support stayed the same and Trump picked up a bunch of undecideds last night?  No damned way.

Edited June 28 by TexArcher

[Bozo_Casanova 26298]

Sigh.

 

[Don Johnson 4745]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Sigh.

 

2012-2020 large dropoff

2020-2024 even larger

2024-2028 maybe he’ll get better?

[troph 24575]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Sigh.

 

His stump speech today was closer to this than last night. He’s not as quick, he’s not a forceful, in both today and this clip you can see his stutter.  I don’t know what all went into yesterday but he was 10x better on the stump. Attack mode too.

[McCroskey 1493]

Biden needs to step aside (voluntarily or by force) and Trump sucks and shouldn’t win.

Both need to be considered the sole goal because Biden winning and/or Trump winning means we all lose. Some will say Biden winning isn’t as bad but it’s really not. We need a functional president and not a barely warm body being controlled by handlers.

[C-Man 27069]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

This would have been a much different debate if it was held around 5PM Eastern.

I've been around a lot of unretired old folks, who are sharp as hell, can follow along complex ideas, and are incredibly comfortable with modern technology. Guys (and gals) who work with their minds more than their hands, like engineers, accountants, psychiatrists, and even some bankers.

All of them without fail, after about age 70, their stamina runs off a cliff a few hours before their bedtimes. Biden's body language reminded me of theirs, after they've hit "the wall."

Once I realized this about them, I learned to work around and accommodate their limitations. During their peak hours, they are absolutely crushing it, cognitively speaking as well as in their productivity, and they are able to hang with people 50 years their junior.

That is the clearest explanation for the different versions of Biden we're seeing.

I also strongly suspect Trump has had episodes as bad or worse.

Well, there will never be a national debate any earlier than 7PM eastern time so they'd better figure out a way to get Biden "fresh" for the next one.

 

9 minutes ago, troph said:

His stump speech today was closer to this than last night. He’s not as quick, he’s not a forceful, in both today and this clip you can see his stutter.  I don’t know what all went into yesterday but he was 10x better on the stump. Attack mode too.

Lends further credence to what Michael Steele said last night that it looked like they filled his head full of facts and he got confused and lost. They should just tell him to get in a verbal streetfight with Donald next go-round. Forget policy, hit a few of your admin high points and then work in the body blows by calling him a felon, a cheating husband, grifter, bankrupter of businesses, rapist, etc.

[Bozo_Casanova 26298]

17 minutes ago, troph said:

His stump speech today was closer to this than last night. He’s not as quick, he’s not a forceful, in both today and this clip you can see his stutter.  I don’t know what all went into yesterday but he was 10x better on the stump. Attack mode too.

48mm people watched the debate last night, including probably 7mm in swing states who aren’t actually sure about pulling for Trump or Biden or staying home. 
How many will see any of the speech today? 3-5, maybe? Almost 100% fully committed Biden voters.
I don’t like the points of infection but they are what they are. Biden can give a good speech and Trump can give a speech and say airplanes will fall from the sky if the sun is covered by clouds, and that doesn’t matter. Speeches don’t matter. Debates matter. Biden sounded like shit the debate, he lost to Trump face to face and as a result Biden will lose votes he can’t afford to lose and can’t get back because there is no venue for recovery.

Edited June 28 by Bozo_Casanova

[linux 1659]

53 minutes ago, MrBig said:

One week before the election in 2016, 538 predicted a Clinton win at 66.9% (down from 85% the week before).

In 2020 they predicted a Biden victory at 90% and the election ended up being a close Electoral College race. 538 also predicted a 97% chance of Democrats winning the House and said they might expand their majority by a few seats.

Everyone relying on polls is in for a rude awakening if they think Biden has this in the bag. People like me were saying this in 2016 and got laughed out of the room for thinking Hilary could lose to a piece of shit like Trump.

Electoral college result was correctly predicted by 538 with perfect accuracy in 2020.

 

Correction it was the 2022 midterms

Edited June 28 by linux

[David Dennison 18661]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

He’s not the nominee yet.  Crazier shit has happened.  Like 40% of the country falling in love with the most vile fuck anyone could dream up.  

He will be after the first ballot. The delegates are his.

[linux 1659]

I still can't believe that stupid NYT oped, hey Biden please resign and Kamala Too, surrender the country now to whoever the chump is speaker today ok bye!

I think Trump panic is hurting us now, we have the worst fucking voter base.

[chainsaw 9838]

22 minutes ago, C-Man said:

they'd better figure out a way to get Biden "fresh" for the next one.

He needs to change his bedtime and active hours

[MrBig 5290]

12 minutes ago, linux said:

Electoral college result was correctly predicted by 538 with perfect accuracy in 2020.

Perfect accuracy? They were predicting 348 to 190.
 

[linux 1659]

15 minutes ago, linux said:

Electoral college result was correctly predicted by 538 with perfect accuracy in 2020.

 

Correction it was the 2022 midterms

 

[gmr548 16519]

1 hour ago, MrBig said:

One week before the election in 2016, 538 predicted a Clinton win at 66.9% (down from 85% the week before).

In 2020 they predicted a Biden victory at 90% and the election ended up being a close Electoral College race. 538 also predicted a 97% chance of Democrats winning the House and said they might expand their majority by a few seats.

Everyone relying on polls is in for a rude awakening if they think Biden has this in the bag. People like me were saying this in 2016 and got laughed out of the room for thinking Hilary could lose to a piece of shit like Trump.

Failed statistics, eh?

[Neonmoon 38127]

[linux 1659]

Sadly it is counterproductive, we got to this point because all the inferiority complex babies moved to MAGA. This is not Putin's Russia yet, get out the vote.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3195]

Republicans like Lt. Dan being mad about Biden looking like shit because they realized maybe the early debate was a trap and they fell straight into it is quite funny