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Russia and American elections, now featuring radical republicans as co-stars

Pancho

By Pancho
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brakeman
brakeman

If I were Putin, I'd be a little worried that Trump thinks my invasion plan is "genius."

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

I think most people you call “left” on this board would agree with you. In fact, I would say the majority of the “liberals” on this board gripe often about Democrats being pussies that never get shit

Creasy Bear
Creasy Bear

My question is simple.  Why is Biden against domestic oil & gas production but is for increased oil & gas production overseas?

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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At first I was considering that perhaps Putin was fomenting the protests to have an excuse to go in and crack heads. And maybe he is. But the 'nationalism' movement that has grown in Europe and was celebrated (and encouraged for America/Americans to participate in on our shores as it advantaged Putin) may be causing him some headaches. What do you all think? The Russian far east is not all that different from rural America: large in land mass and low in population. Physically close to China, far from Moscow but opposed to either and historically (my history for Europe is very vague and spotty so if any of you have a background I would love to hear your thoughts) the Siberian identity was separate and later subsumed into the large Soviet Union. Our world is angry.

 

The protests center around a popular nationalist leader who was jailed on charges of murder.

 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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On 10/10/2020 at 7:35 AM, Mrs Whiggins said:

At first I was considering that perhaps Putin was fomenting the protests to have an excuse to go in and crack heads. And maybe he is. But the 'nationalism' movement that has grown in Europe and was celebrated (and encouraged for America/Americans to participate in on our shores as it advantaged Putin) may be causing him some headaches. What do you all think? The Russian far east is not all that different from rural America: large in land mass and low in population. Physically close to China, far from Moscow but opposed to either and historically (my history for Europe is very vague and spotty so if any of you have a background I would love to hear your thoughts) the Siberian identity was separate and later subsumed into the large Soviet Union. Our world is angry.

 

The protests center around a popular nationalist leader who was jailed on charges of murder.

 

Ideological warfare is like biological warfare.  It's impossible to control, and it has a way of boomeranging.

It's like in 1917, when German intelligence arranged for Lenin and his coterie to be transported from Switzerland, across Germany, to St. Petersburg.  It was a great move.  It helped lead to the overthrow of the Russian emperor and the collapse of the Russian war effort.

The trouble was when, after the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, the German soldiers went deep into Russia on occupation duty.  And then they got to hear all these ideas about socialism and bolshevism.  The German High Command couldn't rotate them out fast enough.  They were corrupted by these ideas.  And then when they got rotated out to the western front, they spread that ideological corruption to their comrades 1,500 miles away.  And before you knew it, the German military collapsed under a series of mutinies and revolutions, much like the Russian one had a year earlier.

One would think the Russians, of all people, would have a firmer grasp of that lesson.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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A  new day, and before the sun sets and the optimism with it, I'm distracting myself this morning before working by checking in on Olga--she doesn't have a blue check mark but she's a fave of mine. She also thinks that Putin's disinfo this go around was underwhelming quality-wise so I'm biased.

I think she is correct that Putin is getting aggressive while he can (we're a little preoccupied with our own unrest at this point to get some things in place) She has a little more in depth at her account, but Putin may move quickly to install in Ukraine; he's still aiding the squatter in Belarus, he's moving troops to the Georgian border due to the Armenian conflict. Lots of money and land and arms sales and gas and while we are busy and our Secretary of State is focused on China, Turkey, and his own perfidy this will not make headlines here I suspect. Oh, the funny (not really) line out of Russia in their media is that we are instigating the unrest in Belarus. How odd  would it be if those protesting in Belarus were finally successful in the removal of Lukashenko and we had to ask them for pointers?

 

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
Adding: the ceasefire violations in Ukraine/Russia have lessened somewhat according to the OCCE. Pessimistically, I wonder if it's the calm before the storm (see tweet above)
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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So, if there was a specific topic outside of the DT for the Russian hacking, I didn't happen to see it in a desultory search, but the hacking is being overshadowed by everything else going on and it really needs some attention in light of difficulties with Biden's transition, obstruction, and just general dumbfuckery.

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45711

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7 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

So, if there was a specific topic outside of the DT for the Russian hacking, I didn't happen to see it in a desultory search, but the hacking is being overshadowed by everything else going on and it really needs some attention in light of difficulties with Biden's transition, obstruction, and just general dumbfuckery.

 

I'm shocked that a government that at best, didn't believe the Russians were our enemy, and at worst actively left the doors open, somehow "missed" the hacking.  I mean, what did we think was going to happen?  

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Degenerate Gardner

Degenerate Gardner 4085

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17 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Remember early on in the Trump admin when we collaborated with Russia on some joint cyber security program?  What’s the worst that could happen?

Do you mean before or after Rudy of the Buttdials was named Cybersecurity Advisor?

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4817

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2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm shocked that a government that at best, didn't believe the Russians were our enemy, and at worst actively left the doors open, somehow "missed" the hacking.  I mean, what did we think was going to happen?  

Trump owes money to the mob boss.  Leaves back door unlocked so boss can send in thieves.  Trump's place is ransacked.  Insurance company pays off.  No one ever questions why security cams were not on.   

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5984

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Just now, Mrs Whiggins said:

That's probably an 'if' more than a 'when.'

They've had individual meetings with Russians where they flew to Russia.  This should damn well get investigated to find out what their stakes were.  This wasn't an investigation conducted by individual congressmen.  There's not such a thing--the US has agencies for this.    

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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12 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Situation there is FUBAR. Teachers, profs, and school principals are being instructed to report students who might be protestors or have opposition leanings. Parents getting jailed if their kids get picked up.

Putin needs to go, I hope these kids can do something.

They've taken their inspiration from the brave protestors of Belarus. It's why Putin sent his 'people' into Belarus to help Lukashenko; he's smart enough to know that it could be a domino effect. Arresting Navalny was a catalyst and they are out there in the bitter cold and snow, day and night.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

In Yakutsk they’re protesting outside at -55 degrees. 
 

Shit, I wish our “Freedom Warriors” paid attention to what it really means to fight for democracy.

There are several prisoners on starvation regimens, and another protestor set himself alight recently. I had a conversation recently and the person was discussing elections. They seemed convinced that holding elections means that a place like Russia is no longer communist or 'bad.' I can only shake my head. The gaslighting of Russia the last four years combined with the concerted blowback against the 'Russia Hoax' has made any mention of the country bring up defenses like you wouldn't believe. I don't know if some folks cannot comprehend a two-fronted attack (China AND Russia) or if it is the ethnicity of Russians that makes them sympathetic to Putin and his nationalists. Whatever the cause, the GOP seems rather intent on having us 'look! over here!' at China and not get out the magnifying glass with Russia, even though THEY HACKED INTO 200 PLUS GOVERNMENT AGENCIES AND CORPORATIONS and perhaps have a possibility of shutting down our grids and such.

They arrest you in Belarus for wearing red and white. They arrest you for standing and protesting. They put you in unmarked vans. They beat you with truncheons. They kick you in the stomach. They stick you in overcrowded prisons and then sometimes you don't come out alive. Ditto for Russia. They want democracy.

 

That is what the protestors are risking when they stand in the cold and the snow in the day and into the night.

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Shady Ray

Shady Ray 1633

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The significance of this latest protest is going to be whether it changes anything outside of St. Petersburg, Moscow and to some degree Novosibirsk. 

 

What the American media - with its obsessive tendency to paint everything as "good vs. bad" or "freedom vs. tyranny" - doesn't report on is how unpopular Navalny as an individual is with the majority of Russians and how closely he has aligned himself with the Russian far-right until the last couple of years. I will be very curious to see how this whole poisoning ordeal impacts his numbers, as the latest reputable polling in late 2020 showed him with around 18% favorability and very high unfavorables, particularly in the provinces.

 

His anti-corruption stance is certainly his strongest and most admirable position, and could mobilize some new voters in theory, but the political views he espouses to the domestic Russian audience with respect to Russian ethnic-nationalism, Ukraine/Crimea, NATO, war on Georgia, Russia's right to intervene in the affairs of its neighbors, etc. are much more aligned with Putinism than The NY Times and Washington Post tend to report, so he is not the savior the American media has been looking for, albeit certainly better than Putin.

 

Reputable media outlets here in Germany at regularly least acknowledge his early ties to neo-Nazi parties and rabble-rousing at neo-Nazi marches, his referring to muslim Russians from the caucuses as "beasts" and "cockroaches" (Navalny actually was even one of the founders of the "Starve the Caucasus" movement which advocated ending social support/food subsidies for the Muslims in the Caucasus), and continued flirtation with the Russian far-right. Yet I very rarely see this referenced in the US media, which is a bit concerning, particularly as within Russia he is frequently in direct conflict with the actual reformist movements within Russia at the local level.

 

And unfortunately, the limited electoral success he has had at the municipal level out in Siberia has only come when his candidates punched Putin from the right on all matters outside of corruption.

 

Decent article from the Middle German Rundfunk, which is the public-service broadcaster out of Dresden which is really good on Russian analysis given the whole former East Germany thing...

 

Quote

Navalny hits the nerve of the Russian population

First published on 06/19/2017

As of 20. August 2020, 2:28 pm

 

A conversation with political scientist Sarah Pagung about Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who is best known in Germany as an opponent of Putin and fighter against corruption. But he also has other sides, explains Pagung in her interview with Today in the East.

What does Nawanly stand for?

Navalny is best known in Russia for his anti-corruption campaigns. At his core, he tries to uncover and denounce the profound and systemic corruption in Russia. A documentary film published on Youtube from 2017 about the questionable property ownership of Prime Minister Medvedev reached a large audience with almost 23 million views. He hits a nerve in the Russian population with it, but nevertheless remains a controversial figure for many Russians. Navalny is the best-known representative and the "face" of the Russian opposition, which is traditionally divided.

What positions does he hold?

Both parts of the liberal opposition in Russia as well as Western media and politicians criticize his nationalist and sometimes racist statements. For example, in 2007 he compared Caucasians to cockroaches.

Alexey Navalny at Russia March
Navalny at demonstrations by ultranationalists in 2011PICTURE RIGHTS: IMAGO

He also appears repeatedly at events of extreme right-wing groups. Navalny tries to relativize these statements and draw attention to his core topic, the fight against corruption. However, the program for his candidacy for mayor in Moscow in 2013 included an extremely restrictive immigration policy as well as numerous statements and frequent lies about the alleged extreme violence of migrants.

How do you assess this from a German perspective?

In the sum of his statements, he must ultimately be seen as having a questionable understanding of society, which is difficult to reconcile with European standards, especially with regard to values such as tolerance or equality of different population groups. This shows Europe's dilemma: The only possible competitor with Putin, who also calls for real democratic elections, does not share our fundamental European values.

Where does he distinguish himself from Putin, but where do both have similar positions?

Interestingly, not only Navalny but also Putin presents himself as a fighter against corruption and both accuse each other of corrupt behavior. Both also play with exaggerated patriotism as well as nationalism and xenophobia to catch votes, although this is more pronounced with Navalny. Navalny, however, initially rejected the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2013, but now calls for the annexation to be recognized.

However, the main difference is the evaluation of the current system in Russia. While Putin is trying to assert his power with an authoritarian system disguised as a democracy, Navalny insists on respect for political competition under the Russian constitution.

How do his positions reach the Russian population?

His statements fall on fertile ground in Russia, which has experienced an increase in xenophobia, racism and nationalism in society and politics in recent years, and thus bring votes. However, they are not a special feature or unique selling proposition in Russian discourse. Russian hegemony, also in cultural and linguistic terms, was never really worked up in the multi-ethnic state of Russia and before in the Soviet Union. Nationalist and xenophobic positions are therefore much more widespread and accepted in Russia.

Navalny is by far the best-known and most popular face of the Russian opposition in Russia. Since the financial crisis in 2008, the Russian economy has not fully recovered. The mutual sanctions, but above all the oil price and the backlog of reforms, are a challenge for the country, which ordinary citizens also feel. The systemic and above all unscrupulous corruption and enrichment of the elites therefore strikes many people considerably. Navalny hits a nerve here, especially with well-produced videos and professional campaigns. Nevertheless, he as an individual remains controversial. Putin supporters in particular, but also other groups, see him as a threat to Russia's stability, which is either driven by greed for power or controlled by the West or even under one roof with the Kremlin elites.

How do you assess his chances for the 2018 elections?

Navalny was already found guilty of corruption and sentenced by a regional court in 2013. He received a suspended sentence, which was confirmed by the judiciary in 2017. Navalny had obtained a renegotiation before the European Court of Human Rights, which, like European states, had expressed doubts about the procedure. According to Russian law, however, he is no longer allowed to compete in the presidential elections. His chances are therefore more than bad, unless he can still prevent the guilty verdict from becoming final. Navalny, however, tries to use the numerous protests he initiates as a means of exerting pressure to force the Kremlin to still allow his candidacy. However, it currently seems unlikely that the Kremlin will allow this. Ultimately, the fear of Navalny's success or at least a respectful success is too great, which would put pressure on those in power and could undermine the stability of the system. Navalny had received 27% of the votes from the state in the mayoral elections in Moscow in 2013, despite unfair conditions - his popularity has grown since then.

How much "old" Navalny rhetoric is still in him today?

The harsh failures against migrants and minorities have indeed become fewer. However, his political plans, for example his proposals on migration policy during the mayoral elections in 2013, show that nationalist and also xenophobic thinking is still anchored in him. In addition, he has never distanced himself from these statements.

However, his role as Putin's opponent stands for a path to more political competition in Russia, which Europe should support. However, this should not be equated with support for the Navalny as an individual or for the majority of his political ideas. The goal for Europe is to democratize Russia and respect the common European treaties, not the support of an individual.

 

About the person: Sarah Pagung is a political scientist at the Robert Bosch Center for Central and Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia of the German Society for Foreign Policy. She deals, among other things, with German-Russian relations and holds her doctorate on Russian influence in Germany.

https://www.mdr.de/nachrichten/osteuropa/politik/nawalny-politiker-sarah-pagung-100.html

 

Edited by Shady Ray
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13050

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5 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

The significance of this latest protest is going to be whether it changes anything outside of St. Petersburg, Moscow and to some degree Novosibirsk. 

 

What the American media - with its obsessive tendency to paint everything as "good vs. bad" or "freedom vs. tyranny" - doesn't report on is how unpopular Navalny as an individual is with the majority of Russians and how closely he has aligned himself with the Russian far-right until the last couple of years. I will be very curious to see how this whole poisoning ordeal impacts his numbers, as the latest reputable polling in late 2020 showed him with around 18% favorability and very high unfavorables, particularly in the provinces.

 

His anti-corruption stance is certainly his strongest and most admirable position, and could mobilize some new voters in theory, but the political views he espouses to the domestic Russian audience with respect to Russian ethnic-nationalism, Ukraine/Crimea, NATO, war on Georgia, Russia's right to intervene in the affairs of its neighbors, etc. are much more aligned with Putinism than The NY Times and Washington Post tend to report, so he is not the savior the American media has been looking for, albeit certainly better than Putin.

 

Reputable media outlets here in Germany at regularly least acknowledge his early ties to neo-Nazi parties and rabble-rousing at neo-Nazi marches, his referring to muslim Russians from the caucuses as "beasts" and "cockroaches" (Navalny actually was even one of the founders of the "Starve the Caucasus" movement which advocated ending social support/food subsidies for the Muslims in the Caucasus), and continued flirtation with the Russian far-right. Yet I very rarely see this referenced in the US media, which is a bit concerning, particularly as within Russia he is frequently in direct conflict with the actual reformist movements within Russia at the local level.

 

And unfortunately, the limited electoral success he has had at the municipal level out in Siberia has only come when his candidates punched Putin from the right on all matters outside of corruption.

 

Decent article from the Middle German Rundfunk, which is the public-service broadcaster out of Dresden which is really good on Russian analysis given the whole former East Germany thing...

 

 

Thank you very much for chiming in here; I've been mostly following the protests in Belarus, the ongoing rise in nationalism in Europe, and such from a few sources so my perspective on Navalny is cursory. Will read the article you posted above today. I can understand the populace wanting Putin out, but trading one thug for an isolationist (haven't read the article yet) ultra right populist would not necessarily help the country either. The anti-corruption talk was all of which I was aware. Thanks again.

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