Russia and American elections, now featuring radical republicans as co-stars

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Thanks to @956 Worldwide and @Shady Ray for this discussion.  I've found it very interesting.

It is isn't it? One bit that @Shady Ray mentioned regarding Nuland and her spouse reminded me how much I miss Muckety, the former website founded by  journalists Laurie Bennett and John Decker. (I don't know if there were others involved). It was an interesting way to map relationships between people and entities. One pundit coined it as 'conspiracy theory catnip' which later made the wiki article, but I used to use the site about a decade ago for Texas politics as well as international business relationships. Sometimes to see just how intertwined through governance, boards both corporate and philanthropic, and other types of relationships people in power can be is quite illuminating. Muckety was taken down in 2017, rumor was that they may have been threatened through legal means, although Bennett later claimed funding issues. I'm more inclined to believe the former, but that would be conspiracy theory catnip so I shouldn't partake in that.

Anyway, I would be looking at say, Rick Perry, and see a name and then dig up more traditional sources and then refer back to Muckety and having that digital map was quite useful and helps when then looking at the media and their slant as both posters discuss in their posts.

[956 Worldwide 34222]

8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Thanks to @956 Worldwide and @Shady Ray for this discussion.  I've found it very interesting.

Second my appreciation for @Shady Ray's perspective.  It's really good to hear from people who clearly know their stuff and are good at cogently presenting diverse viewpoints.  It makes me think through my own preconceptions more. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Second my appreciation for @Shady Ray's perspective.  It's really good to hear from people who clearly know their stuff and are good at cogently presenting diverse viewpoints.  It makes me think through my own preconceptions more. 

Likewise @956 Worldwide. I definitely appreciate your position and see it as valid and well-reasoned…lots of great stuff there.

 

On that note, I am curious to your thoughts on the current situation in Ukraine.

 

I think that regardless of whether one views NATO expansion along with the subsequent skirmishes along the Russian frontier such as Ukraine and Georgia as protecting citizenry or expanding an empire, we are where we are, and my concern is if Russia truly believe “NATO as aggressor” version of things, this Ukrainian situation could potentially be much larger than we have the stomach for.

 

I’ll tell a little story of a young Shady Ray. Back in 2003 when I was fresh out of school and running about Vilnius, I ended up striking up a friendship with a retired high ranking officer in the US Navy. Let’s call him Bob. Bob is also an absolutely brilliant maritime lawyer and to this day is considered one of the leading experts on the UN Convention for the Law of the Sea. Bob was doing some advising in the Baltics at the time. I don’t want get into any more details on Bob, as even now in his older years is still active in very senior “informal” advisory roles, but let’s just say his title, positions held, the individuals he has personally advised in official capacities, and the academic works he has published on strategy re naval operations would conclusively prove that this dude knows the score. Definitely one of the smartest people I have ever met. Anyway, over a period of about a year, I would regularly meet up with Bob and his wife (she was over 60 at the time, so no pics) for beers at this great little Lithuanian cellar pub to shoot the shit. Well, at the time, NATO accession was in the cards for the Baltics and they were set to join the following year. The Russians, of course, were pitching a fit and rattling their (much weaker at the time) sabres about their security interests re the Baltics … blah blah blah. Typical Russian shit. Well, over drinks one night, I asked Bob about their bellicosity re the Baltics and he dismissed it outright saying, “Meh. It ain’t the Black Sea, so they’ll just bitch and moan about it, but nothing more.”

 

In differentiating the two regions, Bob went on to talk about the existential nature of not only access to the Black Sea with respect to the Russian Navy, which is well known…access to the med, seapower projection, “Sevastopol as Annapolis”, etc…but also the Russian view that it lead to THE absolute spot of vulnerability inland on which their entire national security depends. His opinion was that the Russians would sacrifice everything to secure what they view as “The Eastern Gateway” of their southwest and that the battles throughout history had engrained into the psyche of Russian leadership that maintaining absolute control of this specific area - either directly or via friendly proxy in Kiev - was absolutely, 100% non-negotiable and ANY violation of that would result in a hot war. Of course, he went on to discuss the situation in Chechnya, which was ongoing and of course was proving to be a pivotal moment in Putin’s early consolidation of power internally, and he again differentiated saying, “The Russians are now completely inwardly-focused and will continue to be so. Talking heads may say they are tied up in Chechnya to deter further piecemeal erosion of their country, but that is a secondary issue...the real issue to them is complete and total fortification …buffer zones…and they will fight to keep control that natural barrier of the Caucasus. But even so, absolutely nothing geographically is as vital as their control over access to the steppe in their Southwest. If that falls, it’s a highway to the centers of political and industrial power and they’ll go hot to ensure it doesn't.”

 

I often think about how definitively he spoke in his analysis here, even when Russia was a shell of what they are now militarily, and I think subsequent events have shown that ol’ Bob was right. In 2008 in Georgia, and 2014 in Ukraine, Russian behavior at their frontiers have been entirely consistent with this. Maintain proxy control via compliant governments over the areas they can’t control directly, and if that proxy becomes compromised - or more specifically, if that proxy starts receiving NATO weaponry and NATO advisors start showing up on the ground - then use the local Russian populace as pretext to show aggression, carve out a buffer and beyond, freeze the conflict, back off "the beyond" into the buffer. Rinse, repeat. And specifically with respect to 2014, their behavior in a full-blown annexation of Crimea - even by Russian standards - was blatant and highly, highly risky. They knew full well the potential fallout and pariah status that this would result in, but they did it nevertheless.

 

So to us, viewing this from the West, this may justifiably be about Ukraine’s self-determination, ally selection, access to economic betterment, right vs. wrong, etc. But to Moscow, if this is truly is existential in their mentality, I think that they very well may approach this entire conflict with a “Fuck around and find out” mentality.

 

Think about it…as is typical with Russia, the news coverage in the anglosphere is dumbed-down and it tends to start with the movement of Russian troops…which proved to be the case here. But what is not covered is the internal situation in Kiev at the moment. Zelensky’s numbers are in the shitter at the moment along with the general Ukrainian economy. And a huge portion of his parliamentary/popular support is drawn upon by the Ukrainian nationalist element of the spectrum. So, back on March 11th his government announced that they were passing “The Ukrainian Strategy for De-Occupation and Reintegration of Crimea”, which occurred formally in parliament on the 24th. That measure explicitly called for re-taking Crimea by force, if necessary. Which certainly constituted a re-focus over what had been the frozen state of affairs in the Donbas over the past few years. And then NATO advisors show up, Biden goes on TV calling Putin a killer, meetings start occurring between Zelensky and Western leaders in Europe, western weapon shipments start arriving, and troop movements start on the Ukrainian side of the Donbas that week. The Russians strategically escalate and start moving troops very, very publicly to the border. Big show…cameras, statements, etc. And to date, it is an overwhelming amount that have amassed. And what I found very telling was Lavrov’s explicit statement that if an offensive occurred in the Donbas, Ukraine as a whole would then be destroyed. Say what you will about the Russians…and particularly Lavrov, but he is a smart, deliberate mother-fucker who tends not to deal in inflammatory language as a matter of PR policy. This was a statement for Ukraine..not for us, and I think they may actually mean it.

 

Now is this all a show by Zelensky to rally support internally with the right wing showing his willingness to be tough with Russia? It could very well be. Or is it an actual prelude to initial actions in the Donbas as a precursor to moving on Crimea, as per their recent legislative act? I think that is unlikely, but nevertheless, I guess it is still a possibility. Or is it simply a move designed to gauge Russian response under a new administration? Could be.

 

But to Moscow when viewed from the lens of their rightly or wrongly held view of “NATO the Aggressor” - this very well could be the next step in what they see as continued probing of their soft underbelly, and, therefore, is existential. My feeling is that this has actually blown over during the last 48 hours, particularly given that Western Europe, specifically Merkel and Macron, has been very reluctant to engage with Zelensky but each have been willing to speak directly to Putin multiple times reiterating their support for a solution within the parameters of Minsk 2. Nevertheless, when countries with the capability to go big legitimately feel threatened, shit can go sideways.

 

I guess to wind it down, in my opinion, Crimea is gone unless we decide to intervene. Ukrainian forces aren’t going to do sweet fuck all to a determined Russia, so the statement of returning it by all means, including military operations, is either purely political for domestic consumption, or it is dependent on intervention by the West. They know that when push comes to shove, the American people have no desire to open up a NATO conflict over Ukraine. God knows Western Europe doesn’t. But it wouldn’t be the first time powder kegs get inadvertently lit by poor leadership and/or unexpected events on the ground.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

2 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Likewise @956 Worldwide. I definitely appreciate your position and see it as valid and well-reasoned…lots of great stuff there.

 

On that note, I am curious to your thoughts on the current situation in Ukraine.

 

I think that regardless of whether one views NATO expansion along with the subsequent skirmishes along the Russian frontier such as Ukraine and Georgia as protecting citizenry or expanding an empire, we are where we are, and my concern is if Russia truly believe “NATO as aggressor” version of things, this Ukrainian situation could potentially be much larger than we have the stomach for.

 

I’ll tell a little story of a young Shady Ray. Back in 2003 when I was fresh out of school and running about Vilnius, I ended up striking up a friendship with a retired high ranking officer in the US Navy. Let’s call him Bob. Bob is also an absolutely brilliant maritime lawyer and to this day is considered one of the leading experts on the UN Convention for the Law of the Sea. Bob was doing some advising in the Baltics at the time. I don’t want get into any more details on Bob, as even now in his older years is still active in very senior “informal” advisory roles, but let’s just say his title, positions held, the individuals he has personally advised in official capacities, and the academic works he has published on strategy re naval operations would conclusively prove that this dude knows the score. Definitely one of the smartest people I have ever met. Anyway, over a period of about a year, I would regularly meet up with Bob and his wife (she was over 60 at the time, so no pics) for beers at this great little Lithuanian cellar pub to shoot the shit. Well, at the time, NATO accession was in the cards for the Baltics and they were set to join the following year. The Russians, of course, were pitching a fit and rattling their (much weaker at the time) sabres about their security interests re the Baltics … blah blah blah. Typical Russian shit. Well, over drinks one night, I asked Bob about their bellicosity re the Baltics and he dismissed it outright saying, “Meh. It ain’t the Black Sea, so they’ll just bitch and moan about it, but nothing more.”

 

In differentiating the two regions, Bob went on to talk about the existential nature of not only access to the Black Sea with respect to the Russian Navy, which is well known…access to the med, seapower projection, “Sevastopol as Annapolis”, etc…but also the Russian view that it lead to THE absolute spot of vulnerability inland on which their entire national security depends. His opinion was that the Russians would sacrifice everything to secure what they view as “The Eastern Gateway” of their southwest and that the battles throughout history had engrained into the psyche of Russian leadership that maintaining absolute control of this specific area - either directly or via friendly proxy in Kiev - was absolutely, 100% non-negotiable and ANY violation of that would result in a hot war. Of course, he went on to discuss the situation in Chechnya, which was ongoing and of course was proving to be a pivotal moment in Putin’s early consolidation of power internally, and he again differentiated saying, “The Russians are now completely inwardly-focused and will continue to be so. Talking heads may say they are tied up in Chechnya to deter further piecemeal erosion of their country, but that is a secondary issue...the real issue to them is complete and total fortification …buffer zones…and they will fight to keep control that natural barrier of the Caucasus. But even so, absolutely nothing geographically is as vital as their control over access to the steppe in their Southwest. If that falls, it’s a highway to the centers of political and industrial power and they’ll go hot to ensure it doesn't.”

 

I often think about how definitively he spoke in his analysis here, even when Russia was a shell of what they are now militarily, and I think subsequent events have shown that ol’ Bob was right. In 2008 in Georgia, and 2014 in Ukraine, Russian behavior at their frontiers have been entirely consistent with this. Maintain proxy control via compliant governments over the areas they can’t control directly, and if that proxy becomes compromised - or more specifically, if that proxy starts receiving NATO weaponry and NATO advisors start showing up on the ground - then use the local Russian populace as pretext to show aggression, carve out a buffer and beyond, freeze the conflict, back off "the beyond" into the buffer. Rinse, repeat. And specifically with respect to 2014, their behavior in a full-blown annexation of Crimea - even by Russian standards - was blatant and highly, highly risky. They knew full well the potential fallout and pariah status that this would result in, but they did it nevertheless.

 

So to us, viewing this from the West, this may justifiably be about Ukraine’s self-determination, ally selection, access to economic betterment, right vs. wrong, etc. But to Moscow, if this is truly is existential in their mentality, I think that they very well may approach this entire conflict with a “Fuck around and find out” mentality.

 

Think about it…as is typical with Russia, the news coverage in the anglosphere is dumbed-down and it tends to start with the movement of Russian troops…which proved to be the case here. But what is not covered is the internal situation in Kiev at the moment. Zelensky’s numbers are in the shitter at the moment along with the general Ukrainian economy. And a huge portion of his parliamentary/popular support is drawn upon by the Ukrainian nationalist element of the spectrum. So, back on March 11th his government announced that they were passing “The Ukrainian Strategy for De-Occupation and Reintegration of Crimea”, which occurred formally in parliament on the 24th. That measure explicitly called for re-taking Crimea by force, if necessary. Which certainly constituted a re-focus over what had been the frozen state of affairs in the Donbas over the past few years. And then NATO advisors show up, Biden goes on TV calling Putin a killer, meetings start occurring between Zelensky and Western leaders in Europe, western weapon shipments start arriving, and troop movements start on the Ukrainian side of the Donbas that week. The Russians strategically escalate and start moving troops very, very publicly to the border. Big show…cameras, statements, etc. And to date, it is an overwhelming amount that have amassed. And what I found very telling was Lavrov’s explicit statement that if an offensive occurred in the Donbas, Ukraine as a whole would then be destroyed. Say what you will about the Russians…and particularly Lavrov, but he is a smart, deliberate mother-fucker who tends not to deal in inflammatory language as a matter of PR policy. This was a statement for Ukraine..not for us, and I think they may actually mean it.

 

Now is this all a show by Zelensky to rally support internally with the right wing showing his willingness to be tough with Russia? It could very well be. Or is it an actual prelude to initial actions in the Donbas as a precursor to moving on Crimea, as per their recent legislative act? I think that is unlikely, but nevertheless, I guess it is still a possibility. Or is it simply a move designed to gauge Russian response under a new administration? Could be.

 

But to Moscow when viewed from the lens of their rightly or wrongly held view of “NATO the Aggressor” - this very well could be the next step in what they see as continued probing of their soft underbelly, and, therefore, is existential. My feeling is that this has actually blown over during the last 48 hours, particularly given that Western Europe, specifically Merkel and Macron, has been very reluctant to engage with Zelensky but each have been willing to speak directly to Putin multiple times reiterating their support for a solution within the parameters of Minsk 2. Nevertheless, when countries with the capability to go big legitimately feel threatened, shit can go sideways.

 

I guess to wind it down, in my opinion, Crimea is gone unless we decide to intervene. Ukrainian forces aren’t going to do sweet fuck all to a determined Russia, so the statement of returning it by all means, including military operations, is either purely political for domestic consumption, or it is dependent on intervention by the West. They know that when push comes to shove, the American people have no desire to open up a NATO conflict over Ukraine. God knows Western Europe doesn’t. But it wouldn’t be the first time powder kegs get inadvertently lit by poor leadership and/or unexpected events on the ground.

Do you consider Belarus to be included as 'Baltic?' They seem to be aligned that way. They're landlocked and Russia seems heavily involved there given Lukashenko, if I understand properly, is their guy, and he's a mean one at that. They've got some opponents of Lukashenko asking the US for help. Seems like a landmine though. What are your thoughts?

[956 Worldwide 34222]

@Shady Ray , I think in addition to what you’ve pointed out, there is the emotional and historical context. Russia without Ukraine is a big important country. Russia with Ukraine is an empire.  When Russia thinks of its place in the world, it’s very hard for them to do so without Ukraine. It’s emotionally difficult to ponder a a Ukraine that is better off than they are and oriented to the West.  And that is very different than how they ever conceptualize the Baltics.  I can say, that it deeply offends Russia to have watched how a place like Estonia left their orbit and became a first-world, tech powerhouse that lives in Europe like it always belonged there.
 

For Russia, a Ukrainian offensive that successfully ended the ersatz DPR and LPR would be a tremendous blow to their prestige and would strip them of their most important tool to exercise leverage over Ukraine.  Once they illegally invaded Ukraine and once they turned eastern Ukraine hot, they irrevocably broke with any chance of a charm offensive that could succeed or any hope to install a truly pro-Russian government in the rest of the country for the foreseeable future. In a way, an admission of defeat and not proof of strength. Their sole option is to turn the volume up or down these fake “internal conflicts” as a show of displeasure and they can’t do that if Ukraine wins. By massing troops, they want to make sure Ukraine believes they can’t.

On the other side, the goal from the West is to provide Ukraine with enough of a deterrent that Russia would incur an unacceptable cost by moving from “support” to “direct involvement” in the conflict. That’s what the sale of Javelins were all about, and the Ukrainian military of today is much more lethal, capable, and committed of 2014.  In defense of their territory, they are ready to pay a higher cost than Putin likely can, he does not have a free hand and this is not 1941....Russians don’t have the public tolerance or manpower to steamroll an enemy that is outmatched but at least as deadly pound for pound, 

NATO almost certainly doesn’t have an appetite for direct involvement in Ukraine which is why the U.S. and Allies worked so hard to improve Ukrainian capabilities. They’ve been very careful publicly about what they can say.  Deploying destroyers to the Black Sea is less about the threat of using them and more about denying the Russians options. You can’t turn the Black Sea into a Russian lake if there are two U.S. destroyers already cruising in it, nor is an attempt to blockade Ukrainian ports nearly as feasible. 
 

@Mrs Whiggins, Belarus is not the Baltics, not even close. Lukashenka  is a wily operator and at this point, the longest tenured post-Soviet leader.  He is not nearly as tight with Putin as many believe and in recent years was running as fast as he could from attempts to further integrate the two economies and security structures.  Russian aggression in Ukraine scarred that relationship deeply.  But, the lingering effects of the protests left him with few options to continue what had been a charm offensive to Western powers and forced a return to the uneasy status quo with Russia.  But there is a lot of mutual distrust.  Russia, for its part, views Belarus as far closer to its core interests than maybe any other country save Ukraine— but they have successfully kept Belarus from flirting too much with other suitors.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

I think Psaki mentioned in the noon brief today that Secretary Austin and Blinken are in discussions in Brussels this week regarding Ukraine.

[Shady Ray 1633]

17 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

@Mrs Whiggins, Belarus is not the Baltics, not even close. Lukashenka  is a wily operator and at this point, the longest tenured post-Soviet leader.  He is not nearly as tight with Putin as many believe and in recent years was running as fast as he could from attempts to further integrate the two economies and security structures.  Russian aggression in Ukraine scarred that relationship deeply.  But, the lingering effects of the protests left him with few options to continue what had been a charm offensive to Western powers and forced a return to the uneasy status quo with Russia.  But there is a lot of mutual distrust.  Russia, for its part, views Belarus as far closer to its core interests than maybe any other country save Ukraine— but they have successfully kept Belarus from flirting too much with other suitors.

Although all of this is true, don't kid yourself, pal...he's got the only option he needs.

 

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45420]

On 4/10/2021 at 6:38 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

 Step three often involves a lot of backseat driving and sniping from the sidelines. 

So pretty much what I do in the cloak room. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

With Biden calling Putin yesterday and publicly offering a summit to discuss the gamut of issues between the US and Russia, plus (as is being reported here) the USS Roosevelt and USS Donald Cook now cancelling their entry into the Black Sea, it looks like this flare up in Ukraine may have peaked.

 

Russian media will paint this as a climb-down by the West and Western media will paint this as skillful diplomacy averting a crisis, I imagine. 

[Anastasis 23306]

53 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

With Biden calling Putin yesterday and publicly offering a summit to discuss the gamut of issues between the US and Russia, plus (as is being reported here) the USS Roosevelt and USS Donald Cook now cancelling their entry into the Black Sea, it looks like this flare up in Ukraine may have peaked.

 

Russian media will paint this as a climb-down by the West and Western media will paint this as skillful diplomacy averting a crisis, I imagine. 

Whatever they want to call it’s good news,imo. 

[Satchel 6908]

The United States on Thursday imposed a broad array of sanctions on Russia, including curbs to its sovereign debt market, to punish it for interfering in last year's U.S. election, cyber-hacking, bullying Ukraine and other alleged "malign" actions.

The U.S. government blacklisted Russian companies, expelled Russian diplomats and barred U.S. banks from buying sovereign bonds from Russia's central bank, national wealth fund and finance ministry. The United States warned Russia that more penalties were possible but said it did not want to escalate.

The Russian foreign ministry reacted angrily, summoning the U.S. ambassador for a diplomatic dressing-down to tell him "a series of retaliatory measures will follow soon." A ministry spokeswoman also said a possible summit could be imperiled.

Russia denies meddling in U.S. elections, orchestrating a cyber hack that used U.S. tech company SolarWinds Corp (SWI.N) to penetrate U.S. government networks and using a nerve agent to poison Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-imposes-wide-array-sanctions-russia-malign-actions-2021-04-15/

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

And here we go....

 

[Underdog 28372]

Does that mean the Moscow Circus isn't coming? 

[InkaUtexas 25259]

Fuck em, we have Titos. 

[bolverk 29239]

A little bit more on the old bounty story.

tl;dr: US intel agencies have low to moderate confidence, depending on which one you ask. They are in conflict. Biden admin decides not to impose sanctions the issue. A key person for determining veracity has fled to Russia on a passport suspected to be linked to Russian spooks.

 

White House Warns Russia on Bounties, but Stops Short of Sanctions
The available evidence supporting a stunning C.I.A. assessment — which President Donald J. Trump’s inaction on prompted bipartisan uproar — remains less than definitive proof.

WASHINGTON — The Biden administration warned the Kremlin on Thursday over the C.I.A.’s conclusion that Russia had covertly offered payments to militants to encourage more killings of American and coalition troops in Afghanistan, delivering the diplomatic admonition as it imposed sanctions on Moscow over its hacking and election interference.

But the administration stopped short of inflicting sanctions on any Russian officials over the suspected bounties, making clear that the available evidence about what happened — primarily what Afghan detainees told interrogators — continues to fall short of definitively proving the C.I.A.’s assessment that Russia likely paid money to reward attacks.

The intelligence community, a senior administration official told reporters, “assesses with low to moderate confidence that Russian intelligence officers sought to encourage Taliban attacks against U.S. and coalition personnel in Afghanistan in 2019, and perhaps earlier, including through financial incentives and compensation.”

The New York Times first reported last summer the existence of the C.I.A.’s assessment and that the National Security Council had led an interagency process to develop a range of response options — but that months had passed and the Trump White House had failed to authorize any response, not even a diplomatic protest.

The Times also reported that the available evidence behind that assessment centered on what detainees who were believed to be part of a criminal-militant network linked to the Taliban had told interrogators, along with suspicious travel patterns and financial transfers, and that the C.I.A. placed medium confidence in its conclusion.

But, it also reported, the National Security Agency — which is focused on electronic surveillance — placed lower confidence in the assessment, citing the lack of smoking-gun electronic intercepts. Analysts at two other agencies that were consulted, the National Counterterrorism Center and the Defense Intelligence Agency, were also said to split, with the former backing the C.I.A. and the latter the National Security Agency.

Former intelligence officials, including in testimony about the issue before Congress, have noted that it is rare in the murky world of intelligence to have courtroom levels of proof beyond a reasonable doubt about what an adversary is covertly doing.

The re-scrub of available evidence by President Biden’s administration had not uncovered anything new and significant enough to bring greater clarity to that muddied intelligence portrait, so the disagreement over confidence levels remained, an official familiar with internal deliberations said.

The Biden official’s explanation to reporters dovetailed with that account.

Intelligence agencies, the official explained, “have low to moderate confidence in this judgment in part because it relies on detainee reporting, and due to the challenging operating environment, in Afghanistan.”

“Our conclusion,” the official continued, “is based on information and evidence of connections between criminal agents in Afghanistan and elements of the Russian government.”

The official did not explain further. But one problem with the available evidence, The Times also reported last year, was that the leader of the suspected criminal-militant network who was believed to have interacted directly with Russian intelligence officials, Rahmatullah Azizi, had fled to Russia — possibly while using a passport linked to a Russian spy agency.

[Shady Ray 1633]

Interesting. One of the guys arrested is a dual US Citizen who had been in Poland prior to heading into Moscow, so will be interesting to see how this plays out in the US.

And will be interesting to see if Russia releases the recordings which they claim to have.

Quote

 

Belarus: Two men accused of planning coup arrested in Moscow

The Russian government said it had arrested two men who were planning to attempt a coup in Belarus and intended to assassinate President Alexander Lukashenko.

Russian authorities on Saturday announced they had arrested two men in Moscow for allegedly planning a coup in Belarus. The two Belarusian men, Yuri Zyankovich and Alexander Feduta, were allegedly planning to carry out the coup attempt in Minsk on May 9, a day when Belarus celebrates victory over the Nazis.

Russia's principal security agency, the FSB, said the men sought to carry out an assassination of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The Russian agency said the two men have been handed over to Belarus. 

The FSB claimed the two men were in Moscow to meet with anti-Lukashenko Belarusian generals to discuss the plot. 

Who were the suspects?

Lukashenko confirmed the arrests and said he believes the US government is behind the alleged operation. One of the suspects, Zyankovich, also holds American citizenship.

Feduta had gone missing in Moscow earlier this month. He had reportedly arrived in Russia in late March. He previously served as Lukashenko's first press secretary in 1994, before falling out with him the following year. He has since become one of the leading opposition figures to the Belarusian president.

Lukashenko, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has served as the country's president for the past 27 years. In September, Lukashenko was accused of rigging the presidential election against opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, a claim he denies.

Could the coup allegations be made up by Russia and Belarus?

Tsikhanouskaya's senior advisor, Franak Viacorka, said on Twitter he believes the arrests of the two men are a "provocation" organized by the secret services of Russia and Belarus. 

"There is a high probability that Lukashenko's regime will use this provocation to intensify repressions, isolate the country and make deals that threaten the national interests of Belarus," Viacorka added.

Belarusians have taken to the streets in recent months to protest Lukashenko's government since the September election, with the government in turn cracking down on demonstrators, opposition figures and critical media. 

https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-two-men-accused-of-planning-coup-arrested-in-moscow/a-57241861

 

 

And from TASS, which is of course Russian state media...

Quote

 

Russian FSB detains two individuals plotting coup in Belarus, assassination of Lukashenko

The coup was scheduled for May 9 during the Victory Day Parade in Minsk, Russia’s Federal Security Service said

MOSCOW, April 17. /TASS/. Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has detained two individuals who plotted a military coup in Belarus and an assassination attack on President Alexander Lukashenko, the FSB Public Relations Center said on Saturday.

"In a special operation conducted by the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation alongside the State Security Committee of the Republic of Belarus (KGB), the illegal activities of Yuri Leonidovich Zyankovich, a dual citizen of the United States and the Republic of Belarus, and Belarusian citizen Alexander Feduta were prevented, as those had been scheming to stage a military coup in Belarus in accordance with the tried and tested ‘color revolution’ scenario with the involvement of local and Ukrainian nationalists, as well as the physical removal of President Alexander Lukashenko," the FSB said.

The FSB said, "according to proactive information received from the Belarusian partners, in private chats of an internet messenger the ideologists of radical opposition Zyankovich and Feduta organized discussion of a plan of armed uprising in Belarus and decided to hold an in-person meeting in Moscow, using available measures of secrecy, with the opposition-minded generals of the republic’s Armed Forces."

The FSB Public Relations Center continued that upon Zyankovich’s arrival in Moscow after his consultations in the US and Poland, such a meeting took place in a private room of a restaurant in Moscow.

 

"At the meeting, the conspirators told the ‘Belarusian generals’ that to succeed in implementing their plan, it was necessary to physically remove nearly all the top figures of the republic. They described in detail the plan of a military coup, including the seizure of radio and television centers to broadcast their address to the nation and the blocking of internal troops and OMON (riot police) loyal to the authorities in the capital," it noted.

"They were preparing a blackout of the Belarusian power grid to hamper the actions of the army and law enforcement agencies. Some armed groups (guerillas) located at hidden bases were supposed to launch an active phase," the FSB reported adding that the ultimate goal was the upheaval of Belarus’ constitutional system, to eliminate the position of presidency and to vest political power in the National Reconciliation Committee.

The coup was scheduled for May 9 during the Victory Day Parade in Minsk, the FSB said.

"After the above mentioned meeting had been recorded, the conspirators were apprehended by the Russian security services and handed over to the Belarusian counterparts," the FSB said.

https://tass.com/world/1279447

 

 

Edited April 18, 2021 by Shady Ray

[956 Worldwide 34222]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/czechs-expel-18-russians-over-huge-depot-explosion-in-2014/2021/04/17/8d44f2dc-9fa9-11eb-b2f5-7d2f0182750d_story.html

 

Czechs rocking the boat.  They accuse the GRU— and specifically the Skripal poisoners— of blowing up a munitions site several years ago and killing two Czechs.  And they kicked out more Russians than we did from the U.S.
 

Spoiler

PRAGUE — The Czech Republic announced Saturday that it was expelling 18 Russian diplomats who it has identified as spies in a case related to a huge ammunition depot explosion in 2014.

Prime Minister Andrej Babis said the move is based on “unequivocal evidence” provided by the Czech intelligence and security services that points to the involvement of Russian military agents in the massive explosion in an eastern town that killed “two innocent fathers.”

Support our journalism. Subscribe today.

“The Czech Republic is a sovereign state and must adequately react to those unprecedented findings,” Babis said.

Interior Minister Jan Hamacek, who is also serving as the country’s foreign minister, said the 18 Russian embassy staffers were clearly identified as spies from the Russian intelligence services known as GRU and SVR and were ordered to leave the country within 48 hours.

Spoiler

The explosion, which took place on Oct. 16, 2014 in a depot in the town of Vrbetice where 50 metric tons of ammunition was stored, claimed two victims. Another explosion of 13 tons of ammunition occurred in the depot on Dec. 3 of that same year.

Hundreds had to be evacuated from nearby villages after those explosions.

“The United States stands with its steadfast ally, the Czech Republic,” Jennifer Bachus, chargé d’affaires at the U.S. embassy in Prague, said. “We appreciate their significant action to impose costs on Russia for its dangerous actions on Czech soil.”

The Czech announcement came two days after the U.S. said it was expelling 10 Russian diplomats and imposing sanctions against several dozen people and companies, holding the Kremlin accountable for interference in last year’s presidential election and the hacking of federal agencies.

Spoiler

Babis said President Milos Zeman, who is known for his pro-Russian views, has been informed about the development and has “expressed absolute support for us.”

He said the investigation into the case has not yet been completed but thanked the country’s security forces for their “professional job.”

The announcement sent a shockwave across the country, with the politicians from the government parties and opposition united in condemning the Russian move.

“It’s an act of state terrorism,” said Petr Fiala, the head of the opposition Civic Democratic Party.

Jiri Sedivy, former chief the Czech military’s general staff, said the Czechs have to response “resolutely” to the Russian action.

Spoiler

Britain expelled dozens of Russian diplomats after Russian agents used a Soviet-era nerve agent to poison a former Russian spy and his daughter who were living in the English city of Salisbury.

At the same time, the Czech police’s organized crime unit on Saturday published photos of two foreign citizens who visited the country, including the Zlin region where Vrbetice is located, between Oct. 11 and Oct. 16 in 2014 and asked the public for any information about them.

The two were using Russian passports and were identified as Alexander Petrov, 41, and Ruslan Boshirov, 43. Petrov and Boshirov were charged in absentia by Britain in 2018 for trying to kill former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Yulia, with the Soviet nerve agent Novichok.

The Czech police said the two men were also using passports issued by Moldova for Nicolai Popa and a passport issued by Tajikistan for Ruslan Tabarov.

They said the two also visited the capital of Prague and another northeastern Czech region.

 

[956 Worldwide 34222]

4 hours ago, Shady Ray said:

Interesting. One of the guys arrested is a dual US Citizen who had been in Poland prior to heading into Moscow, so will be interesting to see how this plays out in the US.

And will be interesting to see if Russia releases the recordings which they claim to have.

 

And from TASS, which is of course Russian state media...

 

There’s a lot of eye rolling going on in European capitals. Clearly, this is designed to deflect and provide some “both sides” ammunition at a time when Russia is getting hammered for their dangerous intelligence operations on foreign soil.  And this hits the mark in two ways: First, they can can allege that the “U.S. intervenes in Russian allies’ affairs”....Just like Russia actually does in U.S. Allied nations. Second, it’s catnip to domestic audiences...”they planned to mess up our sacred May 9 parade”’is kind of like shitting on July 4 and Memorial Day all in one. It’s almost certainly 98 percent bullshit, I would believe these guys are somehow tied to the opposition but beyond that we’re talking Russian Tom Clancy type shit. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

4 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s a lot of eye rolling going on in European capitals. Clearly, this is designed to deflect and provide some “both sides” ammunition at a time when Russia is getting hammered for their dangerous intelligence operations on foreign soil.  And this hits the mark in two ways: First, they can can allege that the “U.S. intervenes in Russian allies’ affairs”....Just like Russia actually does in U.S. Allied nations. Second, it’s catnip to domestic audiences...”they planned to mess up our sacred May 9 parade”’is kind of like shitting on July 4 and Memorial Day all in one. It’s almost certainly 98 percent bullshit, I would believe these guys are somehow tied to the opposition but beyond that we’re talking Russian Tom Clancy type shit. 

I don't know anything about the American lawyer, but Alexander Feduta is a fairly outspoken critic (and used to be a part) of Lukashenko's inner circle until they had some type of falling out years ago. He's featured on Deutsche Welle from time to time here and comments frequently in international publications re Lukashenko. Not sure beyond that, given that it involves the journalistic black hole that is fucking Belarus.

 

Either way, not a particularly bright idea to be strolling around Moscow with that pedigree in the current climate.

[F250 28611]

 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Speaking of intel, apparently Richard Grennel has been having a little meltdown on social media. Whether it is in regards to the recent news regarding Manafort et al, I cannot say. Rumor is that he may be a little concerned because VP Harris was on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and would have been aware of certain info perhaps not released. He is following around and replying to every little tweet someone makes. He was not necessarily in a position (at the time) to have been involved IIRC, but he was also responsible for moving election security to the ODNI (prior with the FBI) and prior to Kash Patel being named to a position. In addition, the reorganization at the National Counterterrorism Center happened on his watch. How convenient prior to an election and subsequent insurrection. Former director, methinks, protests doth much.

It is also rumored that he is considering running for governor of California, so putting out fires would be to his advantage, and may explain the anxiety.

Is he guilty of bad things, no clue. Just being present in an administration does not mean someone has broken the law or betrayed the country. Nothing will happen regardless.

[bolverk 29239]

I think it's pretty apparent we're in the midst of Cold War 2.0 at this point. In some ways, this one is a little more tricky to wrap our heads around and was certainly more "controllable." For forty years, we had two military forces led by indisputable "Super Powers" staring down rifle their barrels at one another, but there was a clear chain of command with constant high-level communication from both sides.

This one seems much more murky with lots of state and private actors from various factions getting involved and dabbling with foreign policy and engagement in small level conflicts on an ad hoc basis. I don't either the White House or the Kremlin have full control of the various groups with conflicting motives this time around, which theoretically could actually make this one more dangerous.

One story I came across last week that I haven't seen mentioned here was one about former US military with far-right views joining up with Ukraine's quasi-military/mercenary forces in their eastern provinces to fight Russians and separatists. A few of them were so out-of-bounds in their brutality that they've been expelled from Ukraine.

There's some real potential here for rekindling the cloak and dagger film genre.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I think it's pretty apparent we're in the midst of Cold War 2.0 at this point. In some ways, this one is a little more tricky to wrap our heads around and was certainly more "controllable." For forty years, we had two military forces led by indisputable "Super Powers" staring down rifle their barrels at one another, but there was a clear chain of command with constant high-level communication from both sides.

This one seems much more murky with lots of state and private actors from various factions getting involved and dabbling with foreign policy and engagement in small level conflicts on an ad hoc basis. I don't either the White House or the Kremlin have full control of the various groups with conflicting motives this time around, which theoretically could actually make this one more dangerous.

One story I came across last week that I haven't seen mentioned here was one about former US military with far-right views joining up with Ukraine's quasi-military/mercenary forces in their eastern provinces to fight Russians and separatists. A few of them were so out-of-bounds in their brutality that they've been expelled from Ukraine.

There's some real potential here for rekindling the cloak and dagger film genre.

Do you happen to remember the source, or have a link?

Way before Impeachment the First happened, I was reading quite a bit because I had and still do, a gap in my knowledge of the area over there and I recall reading about some of the nationalist groups that seemed a little sketch/fringe. Wouldn't mind reading a little more because it did seem rather dangerous.

[bolverk 29239]

21 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Do you happen to remember the source, or have a link?

Way before Impeachment the First happened, I was reading quite a bit because I had and still do, a gap in my knowledge of the area over there and I recall reading about some of the nationalist groups that seemed a little sketch/fringe. Wouldn't mind reading a little more because it did seem rather dangerous.

Almost embarrassed to say it was Buzzfeed, but it came across my Google News feed.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/craig-lang-ukraine-far-right-extremists-true-crime

When I was just googling for the source, I came across a couple of other fairly recent articles that seem to be of the same vein. I haven't read them for content but here are those links:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-right-wing-rmilitias.html

https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

On 4/12/2021 at 9:15 AM, 956 Worldwide said:

I think the most charitable read you can give the NATO debate for the Russian side is that some seriously savvy late Soviet operators were taken like babes in the woods and conceded a vital strategic interest in exchange for the diplomatic version of a pinkie promise.  
 

But on a deeper level what you have going on with Russian behavior is two things.  First, a seriously unhealthy victimhood complex that even if partially justified, is not helpful and manipulated.  I spent over a year in Russia around the same time you did, but farther East (Nizhni Novgorod) and that victim hood complex is powerful. Second—- even if  you concede (and I don’t) all the worst about the U.S. and the West— Russia is STILL the asshole. (I’m restricting myself here to Europe and Russia’s Near Abroad). 

NATO Expansion:  Russia’s real complaint here is that it’s no longer possible to meddle and destabilize their now-NATO neighbors, and that’s not fair because it’s their traditional hood. But even if NATO is nothing more than American power politics, it’s unarguable that said politics brought first world status, democratic elections, human rights, and unprecedented prosperity to the region.  A Russian sphere of influence brought poverty, show trials, and the odd military invasion. (For all the whining about how Russia doesn’t meddle and respects sovereignty, it has been the Russians and Soviets— and no one else— who have intervened militarily in the territory of the former Warsaw Pact. Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia 1968, Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014.  Add to that Poland in 1980 when Jaruzelski got the ultimatum to crush Solidarity himself or let Soviet tanks do it for him).  So even if someone “stole” your wife, you were still an abusive drunk.

Ukraine:  Again, if you accept Russia’s narrative (I don’t) it boils down to “how dare you Americans meddle after we rigged their election fair and square!” If you are Ivan in Lviv, what meddling do you prefer?  And while of course there are no angels and pure hearted Democrats in Ukraine, much the same could have been said about Czechoslovakia, or the Baltics, or Croatia. The one sure bet is that things will never get better for Ukraine from within the Russian sphere of influence, because Russia’s policy is strength through others’ weakness. 
 

And all this plays into a specifically Russian interpretation of sovereignty and respect—- that allowing Russia’s neighbors to pick their own friends and chart their own course constitutes an intolerable affront to Russian dignity.  They give the game away in the process, other nations don’t really matter, they are just chess pieces for the big players to squabble over. 
 

So when “respecting Russia” requires the West to abandon millions of people to cruel and inept Russian domination, the proper response is to firmly tell Russia to get bent; not to tell the battered spouse to “just stop provoking him.”  Russia can play a productive and vigorous role in the world, but they’ve got to clean themselves up first and offer something attractive to the world instead of simply threats and corruption.  Victim complexes, even when partially justified, are a dangerous thing when indulged, whether domestically (see Trump, Donald and the alt-right) or internationally. Like Germany and Japan, Russia lost a (cold) war. Unlike them, they also chose to lose the peace that followed. 

In other news water is wet. It's always been Russia trying to create problems. They still harbor visions of world domination, as do the Chinese. It's baked into their DNA. Russia can't compete when it comes to the monetary requirements of war, and geo political expansion, but the use of back door espionage, fucking with our grid, or elections is relatively cheap, and potentially devastating.

NOTHING has changed in post Soviet era Russia except the profit motive of pseudo capitalism is being used by the oligarchs via Putins permission, and generous tithing to his retirement fund. As long as Putin is in control nothing will change within Russia.  

Ironical, but we'll be in Russia this Sumer at a wedding of a close family friends son.  The bride is the daughter of one of Putins oligarch boys.  Apparently we'll be hanging in a czars palace, the fathers home for the duration of the wedding, along with all the other American wedding guests.

[bolverk 29239]

31 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

In other news water is wet. It's always been Russia trying to create problems. They still harbor visions of world domination, as do the Chinese. It's baked into their DNA. Russia can't compete when it comes to the monetary requirements of war, and geo political expansion, but the use of back door espionage, fucking with our grid, or elections is relatively cheap, and potentially devastating.

NOTHING has changed in post Soviet era Russia except the profit motive of pseudo capitalism is being used by the oligarchs via Putins permission, and generous tithing to his retirement fund. As long as Putin is in control nothing will change within Russia.  

Ironical, but we'll be in Russia this Sumer at a wedding of a close family friends son.  The bride is the daughter of one of Putins oligarch boys.  Apparently we'll be hanging in a czars palace, the fathers home for the duration of the wedding, along with all the other American wedding guests.

I wouldn't use the palace's wifi if I were you. Also, take tons of pics and post 'em up. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

50 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

In other news water is wet. It's always been Russia trying to create problems. They still harbor visions of world domination, as do the Chinese. It's baked into their DNA. Russia can't compete when it comes to the monetary requirements of war, and geo political expansion, but the use of back door espionage, fucking with our grid, or elections is relatively cheap, and potentially devastating.

NOTHING has changed in post Soviet era Russia except the profit motive of pseudo capitalism is being used by the oligarchs via Putins permission, and generous tithing to his retirement fund. As long as Putin is in control nothing will change within Russia.  

Ironical, but we'll be in Russia this Sumer at a wedding of a close family friends son.  The bride is the daughter of one of Putins oligarch boys.  Apparently we'll be hanging in a czars palace, the fathers home for the duration of the wedding, along with all the other American wedding guests.

Denzel Washington or Liam Neeson. Call them. One or the other should probably be part of your entourage just to make sure you return safely...

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Denzel Washington or Liam Neeson. Call them. One or the other should probably be part of your entourage just to make sure you return safely...

Heheheheheheh As much as I love travel, architecture, and vodka, I can't say I'm that excited about this one.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

Almost embarrassed to say it was Buzzfeed, but it came across my Google News feed.

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/christopherm51/craig-lang-ukraine-far-right-extremists-true-crime

When I was just googling for the source, I came across a couple of other fairly recent articles that seem to be of the same vein. I haven't read them for content but here are those links:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-right-wing-rmilitias.html

https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/

Just from your link, without clicking I see 'azov' and that was one of the groups that sounds familiar. Thanks for the links, I'll read them as they appear more current and up to date.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

I wouldn't use the palace's wifi if I were you. Also, take tons of pics and post 'em up. 

I have visions of James Bond time two way mirrors in front of the bed going thru my head.  Yeah, if we end up pulling the trigger I'll be all over that place as much as possible.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Russia is apparently expelling (if that's the right word) ten American diplomats, so a little tit for tat.

Also some news in advance of events preceding the Russia State of the Union address; if @Shady Rayand @956 Worldwide have heard anything else, chime in....

I was seeing video of protests in Moscow and supposed detentions, but I cannot confirm the sources, so I'll just stop with the tweet above and hope it gets verified. I don't think he's correct about Putin panicking, however. The man is a deliberate methodical planner from my very far away observation.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Molly's take on the address:

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

8 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Molly's take on the address:

 

Russia has no friends they're all vassals, serfs, and chess pieces if you will.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Onboard 2.0

[SydneyCarton 47808]

15 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Russia is apparently expelling (if that's the right word) ten American diplomats, so a little tit for tat.

Also some news in advance of events preceding the Russia State of the Union address; if @Shady Rayand @956 Worldwide have heard anything else, chime in....

I was seeing video of protests in Moscow and supposed detentions, but I cannot confirm the sources, so I'll just stop with the tweet above and hope it gets verified. I don't think he's correct about Putin panicking, however. The man is a deliberate methodical planner from my very far away observation.

 

Yeah. I'm sure Putin is just quivering with fear. 

[956 Worldwide 34222]

Spoiler

PRAGUE — Russia’s unraveling relations with the West took a dramatic turn for the worse on Thursday when the Czech Republic, furious over what it said were Moscow’s fingerprints on a military-style sabotage attack on a Czech weapons warehouse in 2014, ordered the expulsion of as many as 60 Russian diplomats.

The Czech move, announced a day after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia warned that the West risked a “fast and tough” response if it interfered with his country, escalated not only a diplomatic crisis between Prague and Moscow but a wider showdown between Russia and NATO, of which the Czech Republic is a member.

After Putin gives a fiery speech, his defense minister announced that the “exercises” near the Ukrainian border were done and all the units will start returning to home bases. Meanwhile, Russia’s relationship with Central Europe crashes to the lowest point since 1968.  The Poles kicked out three diplomats last week.  This week, Czech-Russia ties imploded as the Czechs say that over 60 Russians have to go home.  Their friends the Slovaks also booted a contingent. 
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/22/world/europe/russia-czech-republic-spies-ammunition-depot-2014.html
 

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by 956 Worldwide

[Neonmoon 38127]

Mafia gas station gonna mafia gas station 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Russian intrigue is so Russian:

 

[Anastasis 23306]

Putin must have Biden pee pee tapes.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2021 by Anastasis

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Not happy about that. 

[GRHorn 105]

29 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Putin must have Biden pee pee tapes.

 

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

41 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Putin must have Biden pee pee tapes.

 

 

Look dammit...... his son isn't just going to get a job on his own.......

[LABEVO 928]

42 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not happy about that. 

i think Biden is trying deescalate and only make it about the political interference not economic.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Donald’s best friend doesn’t like critics. 

 

[Satchel 6908]

On 5/18/2021 at 1:52 PM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Not happy about that. 

What would you have him do?

[Shady Ray 1633]

Biden really doesn’t have another option at the moment but to shift the US position on NS2. Germany has refused to abandon the project despite massive U.S. pressure both behind-the-scenes and in public for years under Trump and continuing early on in the Biden Administration by Blinken. Continuing to escalate the issue via rhetorical threats, or by pushing Germany to buy US LNG as an alternative, or by increasing sanctions on companies working on NS2, etc. was not going to succeed and was only going to increase the likelihood of an even higher-profile falling-out between the U.S. and Europe’s most economically powerful member-state, which ultimately only benefits Putin in the long-run. Plus, you now have Macron openly stating that sanctions aren’t working against Russia, which supports the premise that a unified front on Russia is at risk of crumbling if things aren't recalibrated to accept domestic political realities on the ground here. And it is very much political, given that both France and Germany have huge federal elections over the next 10 months in which energy policy and Russian relations are extremely important.

 

The modus operandi of center-left to center-right German politicians is to pay lip-service to the US...but only so long as it doesn’t cost them electorally by allowing them to be portrayed by opponents as deferring to the US at the expense of Germany, or by allowing Germany to blatantly appear as an American vassal state. There is a sensitivity here to being used as a US puppet that multiple ex-administrations have failed to grasp. See Bush Jr re Iraq and Trump re, well, everything he ever said.  By giving in to such overt pressure from Washington, both of these narratives would absolutely take hold and could prove costly for a whole bunch of ambitious (yet ultimately talentless) politicians across the spectrum. Recent polls have shown over 75% of the German people want the pipeline finished, with 17% against, so it is a political loser and there are Bundestag elections which will determine Merkel's successor in the Fall. While I think support could theoretically be as low as 65% approval in actuality, it isn't less than that. No politician is going to play games politically with energy policy initiative with 2/3rds-plus popular support during election season.

 

"Three-Quarters Majority for Nord Stream 2"

"Are you for completing NS2 in spite of USA opposition?"

 

 

 

Roughly that same number extrapolates to the corresponding political parties in the most recent electoral polling for the upcoming Bundestag elections. And even within those parties who do officially oppose completing NS2 on paper (the Greens and the Free Democratic Party), the rank-and-file of those parties still overwhelmingly support the completion of the pipeline.

 

"Greens Also Strongly Support the Pipeline"

"Are you for completing NS2 in spite of USA opposition? According to Party Preference in Percent"

 

 

Night after night on German political shows like Annie Will and Maybrit Illner, guests from the far right to the far left, and the SPD and CDU in the middle, harp on the fact that (at least as of a few months ago) the US still imports over 550k barrels of Russian oil every day, providing billions to Putin’s government annually, which makes it really easy to hang the label of "self-interested hypocrites" on the US govt and their arguments. Voters are regularly referred to the dumpster fire known as Ukrainian domestic politics, as well as the legitimate energy challenges that a non-coal-fueled/non-nuclear-fueled Germany is going to face in the very near future. With those arguments taken together -rightly or wrongly - allowing construction of NS2 to be squashed by external US pressure is a losing political argument domestically and no amount of U.S. pressure was going to change that at the voter level. 

 

I think the Biden Administration rightly realized the realpolitik of the situation and has now opted to find a way to preserve at least a public image of Transatlantic unity in pursuit of greater issues down the road, while trying to now contain the negative economic fallout to Ukraine, which Germany seems willing to assist with to some degree. Just last week the German govt floated the idea of contributing euros/environmental infrastructure upgrades to make Ukraine whole with respect to the amount of lost transit fees and (at least nominally) suggested that Russia must continue to use Ukrainian pipelines for gas transport as per the current Russian-Ukraine transit agreement. Now, I highly doubt that Germany is going to insist on the renewal of that provision come the agreement’s expiration in 2024, as part of the domestic appeal of NS2 (albeit unspoken) is to limit Germany's exposure to the continued instability of Ukraine and the unreliability of its leadership. However, I do think they will at least contribute somewhat in order to keep Ukraine’s economy from cratering even deeper than its abysmal state until things settle down, albeit solely in effort to throw a bone to the US for backing off.

[Neonmoon 38127]

@Shady Ray thanks for the local perspective. We rarely get to see that here, sadly. It is always framed in how it affects the US, or unfortunately these days, gotcha tweets between red and blue echo chambers. 

This might be a thread derail, and I'm willing to move to another thread to continue, but I am curious about the news media in Germany. Specifically, does Germany have any controls in regards to misinformation? Do they have the equivalent of dog whistle stations like Fox News and Newsmax? Just guessing, I would think their history allowed them to install strict guardrails to that kind of information fuckery, but I could be wrong. Thanks in advance. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

@Shady Ray thanks for the local perspective. We rarely get to see that here, sadly. It is always framed in how it affects the US, or unfortunately these days, gotcha tweets between red and blue echo chambers. 

This might be a thread derail, and I'm willing to move to another thread to continue, but I am curious about the news media in Germany. Specifically, does Germany have any controls in regards to misinformation? Do they have the equivalent of dog whistle stations like Fox News and Newsmax? Just guessing, I would think their history allowed them to install strict guardrails to that kind of information fuckery, but I could be wrong. Thanks in advance. 

This is one of my favorite things about living here...no 24-hour news cycle whatsoever. No Fox News type shit and "no talking heads" outside of three or four long-serving evening chat show hosts that are along the lines of old school US political interview shows. A presenter and a politician or a few politicians, all asked questions about some random issues of the day. No split screens, no hucksters talking over each other. No name calling. Nothing. None of the tension that turns neighbors into dueling yard-sign vigilantes or causes people to see themselves entirely through the lens of their political team.

 

We have two main TV stations, "Das Erste" and "Das Zweite". Literally, "The First" and "The Second". Creative Germans, I know. They are public media outlets somewhat along the lines of PBS and our TV news comes from here. There is hardly any advertising outside of sports programming and we all pay 17.50 euros a month to fund these stations via a license fee, and they don't fuck around when it comes to collecting this. Fail to pay it after six months, they'll send your file to court...fail to pay after a year, and they'll seize property of the amount owed with a knock on the door at 8 AM. No excuses.

 

We get our TV news at 8:15 PM via a program on The First called Taggesschau (Daily Show) and almost all adults in the country watch it religiously. Every night, the Taggeschau bell comes on, and the country watches the news together. There is one presenter, out of a total of 15 possible presenters, who constantly rotate, and no one really even knows their names or who will be presenting on a given night. They are plain, well-kept, pleasant. etc. but otherwise, they have no personality and, as such, no cult of personality. They have no following, and thus, no power to influence. They present no opinions and they use standard, non-loaded wording in high German. They simply read the news starting with international, then domestic, then national weather. Done. No culture war shit. Nothing designed to rile up the viewers. They are highly regulated and expected to remain completely neutral when they cover politics. 

 

Here is a link to last night's Taggeschau. In German, of course, but you can get the idea. This is essentially the extent of our TV news media.

 

https://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/sendung/ts-43359.html

 

 

Local news is done purely by state, so there is for example Bavarian Rundfunk, or Southwest Rundfunk, or Berlin Rundfunk that covers state and local topics and they have their own channels, also with an evening show that is the same way. No personalities, highly regulated, etc.

 

There is an ombudsman for the two stations who occasionally critiques the news formally, the most recent being findings of being too one-sided in the 2008 financial crisis and re the 2014 Russian-Ukraine war. And you are right, given the history here, government involvement with the press is very, very sensitive. I would say that there is a slight bend towards Merkel-style-centrism with occasional hostility towards the Alternative fur Deutschland, as they are seen as too far to the right for polite company, but otherwise it is pretty neutral. A communist Chancellor candidate from Die Linke party is going to be treated just as fairly/aggressively/probingly as someone from the Center parties, both in the Taggeschau or in one of the interview programs. Merkel has gotten some softballs as of late, but I think it is because it is a seismic shift coming with her departure and no one wants to see her battered on the way out. But they are pretty tough on all pols, for the most part. I don't know if it is a chicken and egg situation when compared to the US, but the population genuinely doesn't like seeing their politicians railroaded with gotchas or sleazy edits, and they don't like seeing the media targeted for criticism by politicians. They just want to hear a conversation and they want it done quietly.  

 

Radio media is also subject to this system of oversight and license fees. 

 

Print news isn't regulated and it is still very big here (as in "paper delivered to your newspaper box" print news), and there is more variety here across partisan perspectives. The two German Papers of Record, the Süddeutsche Zeitung here in Munich, and Frankfurt Allegemeine Zeitung in Frankfurt, are center-right and center-left, respectively, and everyone knows the slight bent and filters accordingly. The other three big ones, Die Zeit, Die Welt, and Der Spiegel are all center right and left, also. But there is absolutely nothing like a hyper-partisan widely-viewed news outlet here. We have tabloids like "Bild", which is actually the most read paper in Germany, but when page 1 has some big political gossip and page 6 has an article asking Germans who should be Mrs. November with an image of a bunch of German women flashing their tits, it isn't really an outlet people turn to for actual news.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Sounds reasonable and responsible. I’m jealous

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

SIAP elsewhere; she just went right to the point.

 

[staboner 4955]

hope she lives to ask more questions like this