Russia and American elections, now featuring radical republicans as co-stars

[Gap03 3304]

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Brezhnev had the eyebrows. 
 

 

80's Brezhnev tho ...

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Bet they did nazi that coming... I’ll see myself out. 

Edited December 22, 2021 by Hugo Stiglitz

[JimmyJames 12271]

22 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bet they did nazi that coming... I’ll see myself out. 

Can we do that to Fox here? 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Wait, so we shouldn’t allow foreign owned propaganda on our tv? 
 

[babysdaddy 2721]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Bet they did nazi that coming... I’ll see myself out. 

Sorry that happened to you Hugo.  

Anyone see any of the snippets from Poots speech?  Didn't feel like typical saber rattling and really seems to be setting the stage for war.  Also saw that Russian intelligence 'warned' about US setting the stage for using chemical weapons.  Assume this is just them planting a story so when they use them, they can just point back at their 'intelligence' warning about the Americans getting ready to use them.

[babysdaddy 2721]

 

 

[babysdaddy 2721]

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25912]

27 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

 

 

This is a very good thread. Saw it when it came out. Reminds me of something a friend told me right before we went into Iraq. You don't ship that much gear and people to the front if the decision has not already been made. So when becomes the question. 

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Check the supply chain of blood, and plasma shipments, and where are they going...  That's a real clue to a countries intent for military incursions against neighbors...

 

 

[Sawbonz 27548]

On 12/22/2021 at 8:32 AM, Neonmoon said:

Wait, so we shouldn’t allow foreign owned propaganda on our tv? 
 

Does Germany have something equivalent to our 1st amendment?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33869]

 

[NAVY 6740]

I don’t spend a lot of time on twitter but the preceding post has me down the rabbit hole. Surprising (or maybe not) amount of GOP support for Putin. Just weird as fuck to see GOP mentioned at all in a Eastern European conflict topic. Guess the Russian troll farms are on war footing. Not sure any of it can should be believed. Flood the zone with shit said that one asshole. 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

6 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

This is a very good thread. Saw it when it came out. Reminds me of something a friend told me right before we went into Iraq. You don't ship that much gear and people to the front if the decision has not already been made. So when becomes the question. 

 

 

The difference here is that it’s all internal movements.  Russia can easily move these units back “home” and climb down if they decide to.  The Kremlin power brokers only understand strength and so much be convinced that the cost of invasion will be higher than the loss of face they take by returning to their barracks.  The Russian population is not where it was in 2014 in terms of satisfaction with Uncle Vova.  Ukraine is not the basket case pushover it was in 2014 and taking the fight beyond the LOC- while an inevitable victory, would also result in casualties that might be higher than the Kremlin is willing to accept. 
 

A few facts about the formidable Russian Bear. Russia is about one Mexico City larger than Mexico (145 million people). GDP per capita is about 1.5 k more than Mexico. Many of them are ethnic minorities of questionable loyalty and this is a serious factor in Russian military planning. Russia’s armed forces are staffed by conscripts at the enlisted level, and anyone who has money or brains bribes their way out of service. 
 

It is amazing that Europe remains weak in relation to this country. Germany, France, and Poland alone should easily outclass Russia on a conventional battlefield and Europe should be the neighborhood bully pushing Russia around.  Europe is weak because it chooses to be.
 

That said, Russia is at a disadvantage even with a self-neutered Europe. There are still off ramps and now Biden needs to force Putin to take them instead of encouraging him to believe he can pass a few more mile markers. 

[Cacti 191]

54 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

It is amazing that Europe remains weak in relation to this country. Germany, France, and Poland alone should easily outclass Russia on a conventional battlefield and Europe should be the neighborhood bully pushing Russia around. Europe is weak because it chooses to be.

A united Europe—or even a semi-united Europe—could indeed bully Russia. But that’s like saying that UT would be an annual football powerhouse if only they could build a consensus among the majority of Texas high school talent to play for the Horns.

The latter is more likely to happen than the former.

[InkaUtexas 25912]

8 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

The difference here is that it’s all internal movements.  Russia can easily move these units back “home” and climb down if they decide to.  The Kremlin power brokers only understand strength and so much be convinced that the cost of invasion will be higher than the loss of face they take by returning to their barracks.  The Russian population is not where it was in 2014 in terms of satisfaction with Uncle Vova.  Ukraine is not the basket case pushover it was in 2014 and taking the fight beyond the LOC- while an inevitable victory, would also result in casualties that might be higher than the Kremlin is willing to accept. 
 

A few facts about the formidable Russian Bear. Russia is about one Mexico City larger than Mexico (145 million people). GDP per capita is about 1.5 k more than Mexico. Many of them are ethnic minorities of questionable loyalty and this is a serious factor in Russian military planning. Russia’s armed forces are staffed by conscripts at the enlisted level, and anyone who has money or brains bribes their way out of service. 
 

It is amazing that Europe remains weak in relation to this country. Germany, France, and Poland alone should easily outclass Russia on a conventional battlefield and Europe should be the neighborhood bully pushing Russia around.  Europe is weak because it chooses to be.
 

That said, Russia is at a disadvantage even with a self-neutered Europe. There are still off ramps and now Biden needs to force Putin to take them instead of encouraging him to believe he can pass a few more mile markers. 

People can be moved easily. Not equipment. I just spent the evening with my dad, retired SF. he was telling me when his team called the 1980 Afghan invasion it was not about humans, it was about the equipment. Tanks, sure, but once you see Dining units moving, etc, then you pay attention. 

Putin can pull back, and he is playing chess. The Question is will he? I don't think so. I think he takes Donbas and pressures Kiev from the north. I hope I am wrong. 

And yeah, the EU nations could be a massive force on a defensive posture. Will they defend Ukraine? Not sure they will. 

Either way, great post. 

[Shady Ray 1633]

34 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Putin can pull back, and he is playing chess. The Question is will he? I don't think so. I think he takes Donbas and pressures Kiev from the north. I hope I am wrong. 

And yeah, the EU nations could be a massive force on a defensive posture. Will they defend Ukraine? Not sure they will. 

Either way, great post. 

I have been thinking about this, as well, and I am not sure that he takes or occupies anything, as Russians have zero appetite for absorbing Donbas, as opposed to their overwhelming support of the annexation of Crimea. Hell, taking Crimea was so popular internally that even Navalny said he wouldn't return it. But bodybags coming home from a worthless area of fuckin' Ukraine would quickly erode his position. But I do think that he is fully prepared to fuck Ukraine's shit up something fierce and leave it a condition where it essentially breaks the country sending it into full-blown intra-Ukrainian meltdown, which I believe it would. People look at the strength and structural reslillience in Ukraine through rose-colored lenses in the West. It is not in good shape by any metric and it would not take much to send it from its current awful state to complete collapse and chaos internally. The country is not particularly cohesive and does suffer from decades and decades of corruption and ethnic strife. Putin knows this and I would not be surprised if his secondary objective if he doesn't gain concessions from the US as to European security structure is just to say, "fuck it...destroy it then and let Europe deal with the fallout". To me, that makes much more sense than the risk/expenditure of political capital required to invade and annex. At the end, he knows that a failed Ukrainian state has no chance of entering the EU or NATO anytime soon and he would have at least bought himself years before dealing with the issue again. Not married to this idea, but its as good as my spitballing can get at the moment.

 

As to whether the EU will defend Ukraine...not a snowball's chance. IMO, most EU nationals - at least in Western Europe would support shit going hot with Russia if Russia touched a NATO member, because they value the idea of NATO...but they would not for Ukraine. Basically, Berlin and Paris would risk an attack by Moscow on behalf of defending Warsaw...they won't for Kiev, and every politician knows that stepping in militarily against Russia may very easily result in a situation where they have to address their electorate from a smoldering pile of rubble and defend their entry into what is seen by many - rightly or wrongly - as an intra-slavic historical conflict having nothing to do with us. 

 

And while it may be unpopular to state in public or in diplomatic statements, but this position against military interventiion in France and Germany is not just about Russia…it is also about a general indifference (and for many here, a distaste - even within the urban, professional pro-EU/Atlanticist class) for the current Ukrainian state itself. Ukraine is portrayed in the US media as a promising democracy full of democratic politicians with some semblance of the structural elements required to efficiently integrate into the “European fold” with just a little TLC from Brussels…as though it is analogous to Czechia or Poland or Slovenia at the time of their respective entries into the EU/NATO. Unfortunately, that is a very naive and oversimplified portrayal. In my opinion, Ukraine makes the pre-accession conditions of Romania and Bulgaria, which were (and remain) very difficult for the EU for years, look like integrating Luxembourg by comparison to what we would face with Ukraine.

 

"Ukraine-Fatigue" is a very real-thing here in Germany (and in France), where the country is seen essentially as a borderline-failed state with all of the same problems that Russia has, only with volatile internal politics which produce puppets/corrupted/incompetent heads of state instead of a fixed autocrat like Putin. It is completely dysfunctional even outside of its issues with Russia, burdened with xenophobic attitudes by some powerful people on all respective sides(which are endlessly exploited and exagerrated by Putin, but neverthless seen and reported on as a real concern here). It is thoroughly corrupted by shady oligarchs, chronically insolvent despite billions of EU direct-cash infusions, and completely mismanaged with infrastructure decrepitness that rivals even their eternal-basketcase neighbor, Moldova. It is filled with less-than desirable elements in positions of influence - and that goes for both sides of the Dnieper. And as I mentioned on a previous post in this thread, the desire of German Industry/Politicians to move ahead with NS2 is not only about securing a steady and affordable fuel supply (which it is, of course), it is also about reducing the endless headaches that come along with dealing with Ukraine as a transit state. Decrepit pipeline infrastructure and unreliable supply through Ukraine have been a long-held irritation by German Industry and no amount of contributed funds (even when specifically earmarked for such purposes year after year) or pressure has helped to resolve this. Ukraine is a black-hole with respect to EU direct aid and even the EU technocrats are tired of the games over there. In short, Ukraine is the child that only Uncle Sam loves. It's support elsewhere in Europe is directly proportionate to the self-interests of a given nation at a given time.

 

So, while pure economic interests should not necessarily determine Europe's willingness to defend Ukraine militarily, the truth of the matter is that they do, and I just can't see the average Western European government backing sending troops to defend it given the baggage that it has. Any military defense would immediately open the door to nationalist politicians making political hay over what would be an ugly, ugly situation. Macron couldn't afford it given his upcoming election next year, which is already proving to be an election fought on the right, and the declining AfD would immediately start to tick back up again here in Germany. So I just don't see it happening. Way too much downside defending a place that isn't particularly sympathetic behind closed boardroom and residential doors.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Shady Ray said:

I have been thinking about this, as well, and I am not sure that he takes or occupies anything, as Russians have zero appetite for absorbing Donbas, as opposed to their overwhelming support of the annexation of Crimea. Hell, taking Crimea was so popular internally that even Navalny said he wouldn't return it. But bodybags coming home from a worthless area of fuckin' Ukraine would quickly erode his position. But I do think that he is fully prepared to fuck Ukraine's shit up something fierce and leave it a condition where it essentially breaks the country sending it into full-blown intra-Ukrainian meltdown, which I believe it would. People look at the strength and structural reslillience in Ukraine through rose-colored lenses in the West. It is not in good shape by any metric and it would not take much to send it from its current awful state to complete collapse and chaos internally. The country is not particularly cohesive and does suffer from decades and decades of corruption and ethnic strife. Putin knows this and I would not be surprised if his secondary objective if he doesn't gain concessions from the US as to European security structure is just to say, "fuck it...destroy it then and let Europe deal with the fallout". To me, that makes much more sense than the risk/expenditure of political capital required to invade and annex. At the end, he knows that a failed Ukrainian state has no chance of entering the EU or NATO anytime soon and he would have at least bought himself years before dealing with the issue again. Not married to this idea, but its as good as my spitballing can get at the moment.

 

As to whether the EU will defend Ukraine...not a snowball's chance. IMO, most EU nationals - at least in Western Europe would support shit going hot with Russia if Russia touched a NATO member, because they value the idea of NATO...but they would not for Ukraine. Basically, Berlin and Paris would risk an attack by Moscow on behalf of defending Warsaw...they won't for Kiev, and every politician knows that stepping in militarily against Russia may very easily result in a situation where they have to address their electorate from a smoldering pile of rubble and defend their entry into what is seen by many - rightly or wrongly - as an intra-slavic historical conflict having nothing to do with us. 

 

And while it may be unpopular to state in public or in diplomatic statements, but this position against military interventiion in France and Germany is not just about Russia…it is also about a general indifference (and for many here, a distaste - even within the urban, professional pro-EU/Atlanticist class) for the current Ukrainian state itself. Ukraine is portrayed in the US media as a promising democracy full of democratic politicians with some semblance of the structural elements required to efficiently integrate into the “European fold” with just a little TLC from Brussels…as though it is analogous to Czechia or Poland or Slovenia at the time of their respective entries into the EU/NATO. Unfortunately, that is a very naive and oversimplified portrayal. In my opinion, Ukraine makes the pre-accession conditions of Romania and Bulgaria, which were (and remain) very difficult for the EU for years, look like integrating Luxembourg by comparison to what we would face with Ukraine.

 

"Ukraine-Fatigue" is a very real-thing here in Germany (and in France), where the country is seen essentially as a borderline-failed state with all of the same problems that Russia has, only with volatile internal politics which produce puppets/corrupted/incompetent heads of state instead of a fixed autocrat like Putin. It is completely dysfunctional even outside of its issues with Russia, burdened with xenophobic attitudes by some powerful people on all respective sides(which are endlessly exploited and exagerrated by Putin, but neverthless seen and reported on as a real concern here). It is thoroughly corrupted by shady oligarchs, chronically insolvent despite billions of EU direct-cash infusions, and completely mismanaged with infrastructure decrepitness that rivals even their eternal-basketcase neighbor, Moldova. It is filled with less-than desirable elements in positions of influence - and that goes for both sides of the Dnieper. And as I mentioned on a previous post in this thread, the desire of German Industry/Politicians to move ahead with NS2 is not only about securing a steady and affordable fuel supply (which it is, of course), it is also about reducing the endless headaches that come along with dealing with Ukraine as a transit state. Decrepit pipeline infrastructure and unreliable supply through Ukraine have been a long-held irritation by German Industry and no amount of contributed funds (even when specifically earmarked for such purposes year after year) or pressure has helped to resolve this. Ukraine is a black-hole with respect to EU direct aid and even the EU technocrats are tired of the games over there. In short, Ukraine is the child that only Uncle Sam loves. It's support elsewhere in Europe is directly proportionate to the self-interests of a given nation at a given time.

 

So, while pure economic interests should not necessarily determine Europe's willingness to defend Ukraine militarily, the truth of the matter is that they do, and I just can't see the average Western European government backing sending troops to defend it given the baggage that it has. Any military defense would immediately open the door to nationalist politicians making political hay over what would be an ugly, ugly situation. Macron couldn't afford it given his upcoming election next year, which is already proving to be an election fought on the right, and the declining AfD would immediately start to tick back up again here in Germany. So I just don't see it happening. Way too much downside defending a place that isn't particularly sympathetic behind closed boardroom and residential doors.

So …….  yer saying there’s a chance ??

[Neonmoon 38129]

18 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Does Germany have something equivalent to our 1st amendment?

Is the 1st amendment absolute? 

[Sawbonz 27548]

21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Is the 1st amendment absolute? 

Of course not but 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

The fairness doctrine was not prior restraint 

[Sawbonz 27548]

I don’t think the fairness doctrine would make it illegal for Fox to push their bs. They would just find some guys like Combs to fulfill the equal time requirement 

[DDD Dad 14336]

[Shady Ray 1633]

The Establishment has spoken:

Quote

 

Draghi says Europe lacks means to deter Russia over Ukraine

Former ECB president hints that time as Italian premier might be coming to an end

Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi has admitted that Europe has few tools to deter Russia from a military confrontation with Ukraine, as tension mounts over Moscow’s intentions towards Kyiv. Speaking at an end-of-year press conference in Rome, Draghi drew attention to the EU’s lack of its own military force and also pointed to weaknesses in any sanctions that might be directed at the Kremlin. “Do we have missiles, ships, cannons, armies? At the moment we don’t and at the moment Nato has different strategic priorities.” Draghi said economic sanctions would be the only possible means of “deterrence” but Europe was not in a position to give up Russian gas supplies. “It would not be the right moment,” he said.

...

The EU is already feeling the pinch from a surge in energy prices, partly caused by unusually low supplies of Russian gas ahead of the winter. Moscow has about 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine, sparking western fears that Russia is planning a possible invasion. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has spoken of “serious concern” at Nato’s own deployments and warned of “appropriate” military action if the western military alliance continues to expand toward his country’s borders This month Russia published security demands, including a call for Nato to rule out membership for Ukraine and seek Moscow’s permission for deployments in former Soviet countries that are now members. The US has said some of the demands are unacceptable but plans bilateral talks in January with Moscow. Draghi said Europe needed to maintain engagement with Putin, who talked this week to Emmanuel Macron, president of France, and to Olaf Scholz, German’s new chancellor.

https://www.ft.com/content/dd808ad2-585c-488d-a62b-8f963b1a4bb7

 

 

Edited December 25, 2021 by Shady Ray

[Shady Ray 1633]

You know what would really serve Ukraine well right about now...internal political prosecutions of other pro-Western opposition party leaders, that's what.

Frow WaPo:

-----

"KYIV, Ukraine — With an estimated 100,000 Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s eastern border, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has chosen this moment to pick internal battles — an approach that risks dividing the country amid what Western officials warn could be a full-scale military attack by Moscow.

Zelensky is focusing on two of Ukraine’s most powerful men: Rinat Akhmetov, a metals and media mogul whose total wealth Forbes Magazine estimates to be around $7 billion, and Petro Poroshenko, the billionaire former president whom Zelensky defeated in 2019.

Analysts say Zelensky, whose popularity has slumped since he swept to commanding victory in Ukraine’s presidential election two years ago, could be making a populist play. But he risks presenting a disorganized image of Ukraine to an international community contemplating aid for the country to counter this latest escalation with Russia.

Western officials are privately expressing bafflement that the Ukrainian public has largely shrugged off the threat of an invasion from Russia — in contrast to the alarm expressed by the United States and Europe.

...

“Unfortunately, this is a really dangerous step,” said Yevhen Magda, an analyst at the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv. “Given the real threat of Russian invasion, looking for enemies inside the country is not the best way. Russia can only applaud any destabilization.”

-----

I am not saying Poroshenko is innocent here or not - and as a Ukrainian politician in general, he is thoroughly corrupt -  but what I am saying is that he was a post-Maidan, legitimately-elected, former head of state, who ran on a pro-western/pro-EU platform, who is also currently Zelensky's biggest electoral competition. Zelensky filed charges while he was out of the country visiting that, uh, "hotbed of pro-Russian activity", Warsaw.

 

However, I am sure it has noooooothing to do with Zelensky's current polling in relation to Poroshenko. Zelensky is green (SN), Poroshenko is royal blue (ES):

 

 

 

As I said earlier, the leadership in Ukraine is a fucking joke. 

Paywalled, so full article below.

 

Quote

 

With Russian troops massing on the border, Ukraine’s Zelensky focuses instead on internal foes

KYIV, Ukraine — With an estimated 100,000 Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s eastern border, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has chosen this moment to pick internal battles — an approach that risks dividing the country amid what Western officials warn could be a full-scale military attack by Moscow.

Zelensky is focusing on two of Ukraine’s most powerful men: Rinat Akhmetov, a metals and media mogul whose total wealth Forbes Magazine estimates to be around $7 billion, and Petro Poroshenko, the billionaire former president whom Zelensky defeated in 2019.

 

Analysts say Zelensky, whose popularity has slumped since he swept to commanding victory in Ukraine’s presidential election two years ago, could be making a populist play. But he risks presenting a disorganized image of Ukraine to an international community contemplating aid for the country to counter this latest escalation with Russia.

Western officials are privately expressing bafflement that the Ukrainian public has largely shrugged off the threat of an invasion from Russia — in contrast to the alarm expressed by the United States and Europe.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to reiterate what the Kremlin considers a “red line” regarding NATO expansion into Ukraine during his marathon annual news conference on Thursday. Moscow has demanded the alliance guarantee it will not carry out any military activity outside its territory in Ukraine and other former Soviet states.

Putin told senior officers at the Russian Defense Ministry on Tuesday that Russia will “take adequate military-technical response measures and react harshly to unfriendly steps.”

Zelensky campaigned on ending what he said were the two greatest threats to the country: The war with Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine and oligarchs’ political and economic domination of the country. But choosing to tackle both at the same time could lead to not delivering on either promise.

“Unfortunately, this is a really dangerous step,” said Yevhen Magda, an analyst at the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv. “Given the real threat of Russian invasion, looking for enemies inside the country is not the best way. Russia can only applaud any destabilization.”

Ukrainian authorities said this week they were placing Poroshenko under formal investigation for alleged state treason and “facilitating the activity of terrorist organizations.”

The charges stem from coal purchases by the government for state enterprises six years ago, when Poroshenko was president. The coal allegedly came from mines controlled by Moscow-backed militants in eastern Ukraine; its sale would have helped finance their battle against the Kyiv government.

 

Officials in Poroshenko’s political party reject the accusations. The government bodies involved in the investigation, such as the prosecutor general’s office, say they work independently of any influence from the president.

Zelensky claimed last month that Akhmetov was being recruited to take part in a coup against the Ukrainian government. He didn’t provide evidence or further details.

Zelensky did not say Akhmetov was planning the coup himself. Still, the billionaire was outraged.

“The very idea of my involvement” was “utterly absurd,” Akhmetov said in a statement to The Washington Post, and “came out of the blue for me completely.”

Among Ukrainians, “de-oligarchization,” as it’s referred to here, is a political slam dunk: Billionaires and multimillionaires are widely seen to have built their fortunes through insider connections or illegal means and now finance political parties and manipulate the gears of government.

In a recent poll conducted by a Ukrainian research consortium, nearly half of those surveyed said they thought that oligarchs are “the greatest danger to the country.”

The de-oligarchization drive is a centerpiece of Zelensky’s anti-corruption agenda. That agenda is backed by the U.S. government and the International Monetary Fund, which have linked support for Ukraine to its fight against graft. In June, President Biden said Ukraine needed to clean up corruption before it could be a candidate for NATO ascension.

 

What’s less clear is whether Ukrainians trust Zelensky to get the job done, or support him right now, as Ukraine faces a military threat from Russia.

In March, Zelensky, a former comedian who played an oligarch-battling president in a popular television series before he was elected, released a video in which he addressed the oligarchs directly.

“Are you ready to work legally and transparently, or do you want to continue to create monopolies, control the media, influence deputies and other civil servants?” he said.

At the time, only one member of the country’s super rich was directly affected by Zelensky’s crackdown on oligarchs: Viktor Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin’s and leader of one of the country’s main opposition parties.

Ukrainian officials froze his assets and blocked transmission of three television stations connected to him for allegedly disseminating pro-Russian propaganda. Medvedchuk denies the stations are his.

In October, prosecutors accused Medvedchuk of treason in the same coal-purchase case that swept up Poroshenko.

Zelensky’s new “anti-oligarch” legislation, which goes into effect next year, sets out four key areas that define an “oligarch”: influence in politics, media holdings, economic monopolies and minimum total assets of around $100 million. An oligarch is defined as possessing at least three of these.

Those who meet the criteria will be required to declare all their assets and are barred from taking part in privatizations or financing political parties. Government officials also must report interactions they have with oligarchs or their representatives.

Opinion polls at the beginning of the summer showed that more than one-third of Ukrainians thought the anti-oligarch law was driven by “populism” aimed at boosting Zelensky’s ratings. Only around 20 percent thought it reflected a “sincere desire for justice.”

Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, which Zelensky heads, will make the final decision on who qualifies as an oligarch. The names of those designated oligarchs will be listed on a national register.

Some political observers see a risk that the oligarch law could be used as a “club,” in Magda’s words, to limit funding for Zelensky’s political opponents.

Akhmetov insists he is an investor, not an oligarch, and said he’s ready to defend himself in Ukrainian and international courts. He said he doesn’t oppose the law per se but is “against violations of human rights and the suppression of freedom of speech.”

 

“I support the move to combat corruption in Ukraine,” he said. “But this problem will not be solved by adopting controversial laws and making lists of ‘enemies of the people.’”

In recent weeks, Akhmetov’s television channels have become a platform for some of Zelensky’s sharpest critics, which appears to have fueled the animosity between them.

Akhmetov says that he does not interfere with the channels’ editorial policy and that it’s the “guests who come to the channels” and not the channels themselves that criticize Zelensky.

Daria Kaleniuk, the director of Kyiv’s Anti-Corruption Action Center, said she thinks “people are now supporting Zelensky more” than Akhmetov in their feud. But Akhmetov’s control over “the most popular national TV channel” can influence the public’s perception.

In his annual state-of-the-nation address to parliament this month, Zelensky said the government would prevail in its “battle with the oligarchs.”

 

“Ukraine will put an end to this,” he said.

The next day, Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Iryna Venediktova, announced in a Facebook post that her office was investigating around 200 cases that involved the businesses of an unnamed oligarch. Ukrainian media identified the person as Akhmetov.

 

Meanwhile, Poroshenko on Tuesday released a video from Warsaw vowing to return to Ukraine in early January. He could face a prison sentence of up to 15 years.

“I want to emphasize that placing a head of state under suspicion for high treason and financing terrorism is crossing a red line,” he said in the video. “This is no longer a joke. The joke is over. And one has to answer for this. But later. Now, we have to unite and save the country.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/22/ukraine-zelensky-akhmetov-poroshenko/

 

 

Edited December 25, 2021 by Shady Ray

[Willfully Horn 8014]

10 minutes ago, Shady Ray said:

You know what would really serve Ukraine well right about now...internal political prosecutions of other pro-Western opposition party leaders, that's what.

Frow WaPo:

-----

"KYIV, Ukraine — With an estimated 100,000 Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s eastern border, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has chosen this moment to pick internal battles — an approach that risks dividing the country amid what Western officials warn could be a full-scale military attack by Moscow.

Zelensky is focusing on two of Ukraine’s most powerful men: Rinat Akhmetov, a metals and media mogul whose total wealth Forbes Magazine estimates to be around $7 billion, and Petro Poroshenko, the billionaire former president whom Zelensky defeated in 2019.

Analysts say Zelensky, whose popularity has slumped since he swept to commanding victory in Ukraine’s presidential election two years ago, could be making a populist play. But he risks presenting a disorganized image of Ukraine to an international community contemplating aid for the country to counter this latest escalation with Russia.

Western officials are privately expressing bafflement that the Ukrainian public has largely shrugged off the threat of an invasion from Russia — in contrast to the alarm expressed by the United States and Europe.

...

“Unfortunately, this is a really dangerous step,” said Yevhen Magda, an analyst at the Institute of World Policy in Kyiv. “Given the real threat of Russian invasion, looking for enemies inside the country is not the best way. Russia can only applaud any destabilization.”

-----

I am not saying Poroshenko is innocent here or not - and as a Ukrainian politician in general, he is thoroughly corrupt -  but what I am saying is that he was a post-Maidan, legitimately-elected, former head of state, who ran on a pro-western/pro-EU platform, who is also currently Zelensky's biggest electoral competition. Zelensky filed charges while he was out of the country visiting that, uh, "hotbed of pro-Russian activity", Warsaw.

 

However, I am sure it has noooooothing to do with Zelensky's current polling in relation to Poroshenko. Zelensky is green (SN), Poroshenko is royal blue (ES):

 

 

 

As I said earlier, the leadership in Ukraine is a fucking joke. 

Paywalled, so full article below.

 

 

Merry Christmas! Taking a break while the wife wraps more gifts. Procrastinating, really.

Since I know squat about these issues, I thought I’d offer a completely uninformed opinion. Fuck Putin. And, I hear often enough how ALL politicians are corrupt. Believed it myself, once.

But not everyone is corrupt. I’m not talking unicorns, either. Maybe Ukraine runs counter to human nature, but I doubt it.

 

[Shady Ray 1633]

2 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Merry Christmas! Taking a break while the wife wraps more gifts. Procrastinating, really.

Since I know squat about these issues, I thought I’d offer a completely uninformed opinion. Fuck Putin. And, I hear often enough how ALL politicians are corrupt. Believed it myself, once.

But not everyone is corrupt. I’m not talking unicorns, either. Maybe Ukraine runs counter to human nature, but I doubt it.

 

Waiting for the wife to get her ass moving for the day so we can get this Christmas goose going, so I figured there was no better way to spend a rainy Christmas morning in Munich than to bitch about Ukrainian leadership :- ). Was a hell of a time getting a bird this year...not sure what the deal was, but it took about 5 trips around town to find one. 6 KG bird was all we could find, so its going to be goose for days.

 

Merry Christmas to you, as well. And same to the rest of the thread...enjoyed all the insights on this one over the year and I have a feeling this will be an active thread come 2022.

[deac_tracy 516]

30 years ago today.

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Froliches weinachten

[Shady Ray 1633]

While the foreign-policy chatterati in the English-speaking world wonders aloud why the Western Europeans have no desire to fully support the leadership in Ukraine in a militarized conflict, the NY Times finally publishes what the Europeans have known for quite some time about the competency of potential war-time leadership in Ukraine.

 

I can only imagine that Zelensky has pissed off the American foreign policy establishment off something fierce, as this has been about the fifth article in highly-connected English-language media in the last two days calling into question his competency and seriousness:

 

Just some highlights from the NYT, but the whole thing calls into question his competency to undertake such a sensitive endeavor:

———

Quote

 

As Russian Threat Looms, Ukraine’s Government Is No Laughing Matter

President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor, has surrounded himself with advisers from his old comedy troupe. No kidding.

…

Before turning to politics, President Volodymyr Zelensky was a television actor and comic, and he has placed allies with similar histories in key positions throughout the government, including top advisers, legislators, administrators and even an intelligence chief.

At a time when Russia has built up forces on Ukraine’s border and fear of an invasion is running high, Mr. Zelensky has surrounded himself with people drawn from his comedy studio, Kvartal 95. Few have any experience in diplomacy or warfare.

“There is that risk of people not having the gravitas, and not having experience,” Orysia Lutsevych, the director of the Ukraine studies program at Chatham House in London, said in an interview. “I wouldn’t want to be in the room when there are just a couple of guys who know how to produce videos. This is not a peaceful time. This is a time of war.”

Mr. Zelensky was elected as an outsider to Ukraine’s dysfunctional, often corrupt politics two years ago, and, trying to bypass its bitter feuds and opaque motives, he ushered in a government as unorthodox as he was. He appointed fellow comedy industry veterans, relying on personal loyalty rather than expertise or building coalitions in Ukraine’s fractious democracy, political analysts say.

Bihus, a Ukrainian investigative news site, has counted three dozen people with ties to Mr. Zelensky’s comedy studio and his family who are now in government, including in national security positions at the defense intelligence agency, which is tasked with monitoring the Russian buildup.

…

It is hardly a lighthearted moment, and yet comedy was integral to Mr. Zelensky’s political ascent and persona, and his supporters defend its relevance in crisis.

On television, he played a schoolteacher whose tirade against corruption is filmed by his students, winds up online and goes viral, propelling him to the presidency.

In a campaign of life mimicking art, Mr. Zelensky named his political party after his television show, “Servant of the People.” Actors, filmmakers and media executives led the party and followed him into power.

The chief of the presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, was a media lawyer and movie producer. The head of the domestic intelligence agency, Ivan Bakanov, had been the director of the Kvartal 95 studio. A chief presidential adviser, Serhiy Shefir, was a screenwriter and producer whose major credits included a hit romantic comedy film, “Eight First Dates,” and a television series, “The In-laws.”

…

“Humor is a sign of intellect,” he said in an interview. “A sense of humor is a gift.”

In Ukraine’s international relations, “it’s really an advantage,” he added. “In diplomacy, humor is always an instrument. You can set the right tone with a joke.”

…

Serhiy Prytula, a comedian and host of the television show “Ukraine’s Got Talent,” said the problem was not comedy, per se, but Mr. Zelensky’s reliance on loyalists.

“We all worked somewhere,” said Mr. Prytula, who has announced plans to found his own comedian-led political party to compete with Mr. Zelensky. “The question is: Are you, as a politician, willing to surround yourself with people who are not just loyal but have expertise?”

Beyond the general sense that Mr. Zelensky’s aides are out of their depth, critics have pointed to what they call worrying blunders in national security.

Mr. Yermak, the former media lawyer, ordered an ill-considered delay in a sensitive intelligence operation in 2020 that might have captured dozens of Russian mercenaries, according to Bellingcat, an open source investigation group. The delay scuttled the operation.

And critics point to a decision this year to earmark money raised through government borrowing not for military spending but for Mr. Zelensky’s signature domestic policy project, a road-building initiative called Big Construction overseen by Kirill Tymoshenko, a former director of a video production company, Good Media.

Volodymyr Ariev, a member of the opposition European Solidarity party, joked that this allocation would now serve “to make the ride to Kyiv more comfortable for Russian tanks.”

…

As Ukraine braces for possible war with Russia, worry has mounted that the inexperience of Mr. Zelensky’s circle could have dire consequences, and not only for their own country. An amateurish misstep could become a pretext for war, which would significantly worsen the friction between Russia and the United States.

Dmytro Razumkov, who was ousted in October as the speaker of Parliament — and replaced by a former comedian, Ruslan Stefanchuk — said Mr. Zelensky’s appointment of show business figures betrayed a campaign promise to balance his government with technical experts. Mr. Stefanchuk is also a lawyer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/25/world/europe/ukraine-russia.html

 

Also, Germany going it alone directly with Russia, with new Chancellor Scholz pulling a "Merkel" and running foreign policy direct from the Chancellry, bypassing the Foreign Ministry, thus cutting out previously-mentioned new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who has had a hell of a few weeks pissing off half of Europe, most noticably the French:

 

Quote

 

Berlin and Kremlin envoys to meet over Ukraine, says source

BERLIN, Dec 25 (Reuters) - Senior German and Russian government officials have agreed to a rare in-person meeting next month in an effort to ease political tensions over Ukraine, a German government source said on Saturday.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's foreign policy adviser Jens Ploetner and Russia's Ukraine negotiator Dmitry Kozak agreed to meet after a lengthy phone conversation on Thursday, the source said on condition of anonymity.

The German government has not made any official comment. A spokesman for Kozak declined to comment.

There have been a flurry of phone calls between western leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent months over Russia's military build-up on the Ukrainian border and resulting fears of an invasion.

In-person meetings between senior Western and Russian government officials have been few and far between, though U.S. President Joe Biden held talks with President Putin in Geneva last June.

Since taking office this month, Scholz has emphasised the need for dialogue with Russia over its military build-up on the Ukrainian border while joining western allies in backing sanctions should Moscow invade.

Berlin doubts more than Washington whether Russia actually wants to attack Ukraine and is keen to de-escalate tensions, two government sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Critics accuse Germany of being beholden to Putin because of its need for Russian gas, attacking construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between the countries, bypassing Ukraine. Berlin says Nordstream 2 is not political and would be only one of several pipelines transporting Russian gas to Europe.

"The German side's goal remains to achieve a swift reactivation of the Normandy format," the German government source said, referring to multilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.

SPD parliamentary leader Rolf Mutzenich told Reuters the party was not "naive" and knew who it was dealing with, adding that it still believes that engagement could help to de-escalate the Ukraine situation.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/berlin-kremlin-envoys-meet-over-ukraine-says-source-2021-12-25/

 

Edited December 26, 2021 by Shady Ray

[Brisketexan 105100]

While the foreign-policy chatterati in the English-speaking world wonders aloud why the Western Europeans have no desire to fully support the leadership in Ukraine in a militarized conflict, the NY Times finally publishes what the Europeans have known for quite some time about the competency of potential war-time leadership in Ukraine.
 
I can only imagine that Zelensky has pissed off the American foreign policy establishment off something fierce, as this has been about the fifth article in highly-connected English-language media in the last two days calling into question his competency and seriousness:
 
Just some highlights from the NYT, but the whole thing calls into question his competency to undertake such a sensitive endeavor:
———

 
As Russian Threat Looms, Ukraine’s Government Is No Laughing Matter
President Volodymyr Zelensky, a former actor, has surrounded himself with advisers from his old comedy troupe. No kidding.
…
Before turning to politics, President Volodymyr Zelensky was a television actor and comic, and he has placed allies with similar histories in key positions throughout the government, including top advisers, legislators, administrators and even an intelligence chief.
At a time when Russia has built up forces on Ukraine’s border and fear of an invasion is running high, Mr. Zelensky has surrounded himself with people drawn from his comedy studio, Kvartal 95. Few have any experience in diplomacy or warfare.
“There is that risk of people not having the gravitas, and not having experience,” Orysia Lutsevych, the director of the Ukraine studies program at Chatham House in London, said in an interview. “I wouldn’t want to be in the room when there are just a couple of guys who know how to produce videos. This is not a peaceful time. This is a time of war.”
Mr. Zelensky was elected as an outsider to Ukraine’s dysfunctional, often corrupt politics two years ago, and, trying to bypass its bitter feuds and opaque motives, he ushered in a government as unorthodox as he was. He appointed fellow comedy industry veterans, relying on personal loyalty rather than expertise or building coalitions in Ukraine’s fractious democracy, political analysts say.
Bihus, a Ukrainian investigative news site, has counted three dozen people with ties to Mr. Zelensky’s comedy studio and his family who are now in government, including in national security positions at the defense intelligence agency, which is tasked with monitoring the Russian buildup.
…
It is hardly a lighthearted moment, and yet comedy was integral to Mr. Zelensky’s political ascent and persona, and his supporters defend its relevance in crisis.
On television, he played a schoolteacher whose tirade against corruption is filmed by his students, winds up online and goes viral, propelling him to the presidency.

In a campaign of life mimicking art, Mr. Zelensky named his political party after his television show, “Servant of the People.” Actors, filmmakers and media executives led the party and followed him into power.
The chief of the presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, was a media lawyer and movie producer. The head of the domestic intelligence agency, Ivan Bakanov, had been the director of the Kvartal 95 studio. A chief presidential adviser, Serhiy Shefir, was a screenwriter and producer whose major credits included a hit romantic comedy film, “Eight First Dates,” and a television series, “The In-laws.”
…
“Humor is a sign of intellect,” he said in an interview. “A sense of humor is a gift.”
In Ukraine’s international relations, “it’s really an advantage,” he added. “In diplomacy, humor is always an instrument. You can set the right tone with a joke.”
…
Serhiy Prytula, a comedian and host of the television show “Ukraine’s Got Talent,” said the problem was not comedy, per se, but Mr. Zelensky’s reliance on loyalists.
“We all worked somewhere,” said Mr. Prytula, who has announced plans to found his own comedian-led political party to compete with Mr. Zelensky. “The question is: Are you, as a politician, willing to surround yourself with people who are not just loyal but have expertise?”
Beyond the general sense that Mr. Zelensky’s aides are out of their depth, critics have pointed to what they call worrying blunders in national security.
Mr. Yermak, the former media lawyer, ordered an ill-considered delay in a sensitive intelligence operation in 2020 that might have captured dozens of Russian mercenaries, according to Bellingcat, an open source investigation group. The delay scuttled the operation.
And critics point to a decision this year to earmark money raised through government borrowing not for military spending but for Mr. Zelensky’s signature domestic policy project, a road-building initiative called Big Construction overseen by Kirill Tymoshenko, a former director of a video production company, Good Media.
Volodymyr Ariev, a member of the opposition European Solidarity party, joked that this allocation would now serve “to make the ride to Kyiv more comfortable for Russian tanks.”

…
As Ukraine braces for possible war with Russia, worry has mounted that the inexperience of Mr. Zelensky’s circle could have dire consequences, and not only for their own country. An amateurish misstep could become a pretext for war, which would significantly worsen the friction between Russia and the United States.

Dmytro Razumkov, who was ousted in October as the speaker of Parliament — and replaced by a former comedian, Ruslan Stefanchuk — said Mr. Zelensky’s appointment of show business figures betrayed a campaign promise to balance his government with technical experts. Mr. Stefanchuk is also a lawyer.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/25/world/europe/ukraine-russia.html

 
Also, Germany going it alone directly with Russia, with new Chancellor Scholz pulling a "Merkel" and running foreign policy direct from the Chancellry, bypassing the Foreign Ministry, thus cutting out previously-mentioned new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who has had a hell of a few weeks pissing off half of Europe, most noticably the French:

 

 
Berlin and Kremlin envoys to meet over Ukraine, says source
BERLIN, Dec 25 (Reuters) - Senior German and Russian government officials have agreed to a rare in-person meeting next month in an effort to ease political tensions over Ukraine, a German government source said on Saturday.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's foreign policy adviser Jens Ploetner and Russia's Ukraine negotiator Dmitry Kozak agreed to meet after a lengthy phone conversation on Thursday, the source said on condition of anonymity.
The German government has not made any official comment. A spokesman for Kozak declined to comment.
There have been a flurry of phone calls between western leaders and Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent months over Russia's military build-up on the Ukrainian border and resulting fears of an invasion.
In-person meetings between senior Western and Russian government officials have been few and far between, though U.S. President Joe Biden held talks with President Putin in Geneva last June.
Since taking office this month, Scholz has emphasised the need for dialogue with Russia over its military build-up on the Ukrainian border while joining western allies in backing sanctions should Moscow invade.
Berlin doubts more than Washington whether Russia actually wants to attack Ukraine and is keen to de-escalate tensions, two government sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity.
Critics accuse Germany of being beholden to Putin because of its need for Russian gas, attacking construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between the countries, bypassing Ukraine. Berlin says Nordstream 2 is not political and would be only one of several pipelines transporting Russian gas to Europe.
"The German side's goal remains to achieve a swift reactivation of the Normandy format," the German government source said, referring to multilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.
SPD parliamentary leader Rolf Mutzenich told Reuters the party was not "naive" and knew who it was dealing with, adding that it still believes that engagement could help to de-escalate the Ukraine situation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/berlin-kremlin-envoys-meet-over-ukraine-says-source-2021-12-25/
 

Counterpoint 1: Baerbock is sexy, and would like to make sexy time with me.

Counterpoint 2: the anti-nuke stance isn’t just her position, or the Greens’ position, it’s Germany’s. They are stridently anti-nuke. I don’t agree with it, but it’s not a secret.

3: I ain’t gots no idear what the ultimate play by Putin is here.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 
Also, Germany going it alone directly with Russia, with new Chancellor Scholz pulling a "Merkel" and running foreign policy direct from the Chancellry, bypassing the Foreign Ministry, thus cutting out previously-mentioned new Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who has had a hell of a few weeks pissing off half of Europe, most noticably the French:

 


Counterpoint 1: Baerbock is sexy, and would like to make sexy time with me.

Counterpoint 2: the anti-nuke stance isn’t just her position, or the Greens’ position, it’s Germany’s. They are stridently anti-nuke. I don’t agree with it, but it’s not a secret.

3: I ain’t gots no idear what the ultimate play by Putin is here.

* got's

[Underdog 28616]

Zelensky?  The auto parts King of Chicago?  

[Sawbonz 27548]

What a shitshow

[Shady Ray 1633]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Counterpoint 1: Baerbock is sexy, and would like to make sexy time with me.

Counterpoint 2: the anti-nuke stance isn’t just her position, or the Greens’ position, it’s Germany’s. They are stridently anti-nuke. I don’t agree with it, but it’s not a secret.

3: I ain’t gots no idear what the ultimate play by Putin is here.

That is a good point. Both 1 and 2, of course.

 

I honestly think Merkel got out over here skis on that and just never figured out how to walk it back. However, the SPD is not (at least not publicly) supporting the Green's push to extend the anti-nuke delusion Europe-wide and politics being what they are, the Greens are being set up to be the ones left holding the bag on this optically. I heard about it all day with family over yesterday and today's Christmas festivities - well-educated mix of traditional SPD and Bavarian CSU voters - "well, the damn Greens are gonna fuck us on this energy issue." 

 

So, that said, be prepared...Annalena may come to you looking for comfort soon if Olaf and Lindner follow through on scapegoating her.

[Biff Tannen 45678]

4 hours ago, Underdog said:

Zelensky?  The auto parts King of Chicago?  

Mmm, he seems like a nice guy. 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

On 12/25/2021 at 12:44 PM, deac_tracy said:

30 years ago today.

The farther away we can get from Putin and his generation, the better.  Not that the next generation(s) won't be any less corrupt, but they won't have such a hard-on for reunited the Soviet Union.

[Brisketexan 105100]

The farther away we can get from Putin and his generation, the better.  Not that the next generation(s) won't be any less corrupt, but they won't have such a hard-on for reunited the Soviet Union.

Farther away? We’re one election away from renouncing NATO and entering into a formal alliance with him.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

On 12/23/2021 at 6:47 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

It is amazing that Europe remains weak in relation to this country. Germany, France, and Poland alone should easily outclass Russia on a conventional battlefield and Europe should be the neighborhood bully pushing Russia around.  Europe is weak because it chooses to be.

Germany, France, and Poland wouldn't be dealing with the logistics nightmare that Russia would be (hostile territory) and would best Russia in numbers (and training, and airspace) on a conventional battlefield.  And Russia, France, Poland, and most other European/NATO nations have had years of testing out weapons and tactics in Afghanistan to boot.

It's that "conventional" part that's the problem.  Nobody in Europe wants a major shooting match with Russia, because nobody knows how many Russian losses it will take before the Russians drag out the tactical nukes.

On 12/23/2021 at 6:47 PM, 956 Worldwide said:

That said, Russia is at a disadvantage even with a self-neutered Europe. 

With multiple NATO partners next door to Ukraine, and with lots of NATO experience with insurgents, you can bet that training and equipment flows into Ukraine to make the Russians pay a heavy price.  It looks like Russia could field around 300,000 troops to support an invasion, but many of those would be tied up in support roles and/or guarding some tenuous supply lines in places (and they'd be pulling from border units in other parts of Russia, which could be a problem with certain republics).  Doing a deep-dive on various sites/etc., looks like the Russians could in theory field 75,000 - 100,000 fighting soldiers in an invasion army, which would be a powerful force (since they'd have armor and heavy air support), but if the supply lines get dicey, that number drops really fast as those frontline troops get sucked into keeping supply chains open, and as casualties build up.

Which all goes back to Putin doing something extremely limited and/or just fucking around and not invading.  Too many ways for things to go poorly for him.

But the Russians are moving units that are not easy to move, and are expensive to move.

 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

On 12/23/2021 at 6:05 PM, NAVY said:

I don’t spend a lot of time on twitter but the preceding post has me down the rabbit hole. Surprising (or maybe not) amount of GOP support for Putin. Just weird as fuck to see GOP mentioned at all in a Eastern European conflict topic. Guess the Russian troll farms are on war footing. Not sure any of it can should be believed. Flood the zone with shit said that one asshole. 

The Republican love of Russia is weird as fuck (even before those Congressional members went to Russia on July 4th).  It's easy to say that Putin is what they wish Trump would have been, but no, there's something else there that's odd.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Farther away? We’re one election away from renouncing NATO and entering into a formal alliance with him.

Lord have mercy, a week in Christmas land you're already ledge sitting ?  

[956 Worldwide 34705]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Germany, France, and Poland wouldn't be dealing with the logistics nightmare that Russia would be (hostile territory) and would best Russia in numbers (and training, and airspace) on a conventional battlefield.  And Russia, France, Poland, and most other European/NATO nations have had years of testing out weapons and tactics in Afghanistan to boot.

It's that "conventional" part that's the problem.  Nobody in Europe wants a major shooting match with Russia, because nobody knows how many Russian losses it will take before the Russians drag out the tactical nukes.

With multiple NATO partners next door to Ukraine, and with lots of NATO experience with insurgents, you can bet that training and equipment flows into Ukraine to make the Russians pay a heavy price.  It looks like Russia could field around 300,000 troops to support an invasion, but many of those would be tied up in support roles and/or guarding some tenuous supply lines in places (and they'd be pulling from border units in other parts of Russia, which could be a problem with certain republics).  Doing a deep-dive on various sites/etc., looks like the Russians could in theory field 75,000 - 100,000 fighting soldiers in an invasion army, which would be a powerful force (since they'd have armor and heavy air support), but if the supply lines get dicey, that number drops really fast as those frontline troops get sucked into keeping supply chains open, and as casualties build up.

Which all goes back to Putin doing something extremely limited and/or just fucking around and not invading.  Too many ways for things to go poorly for him.

But the Russians are moving units that are not easy to move, and are expensive to move.

 

This is one of the best threads out there on how to interact effectively with Russia. Most important is (4) and (10), which are— don’t get distracted by bravado and bluff and don’t make the mistake of believing you can choose to be at war with Russia or not. 
 

Western Europeans, especially, are driven to distraction by both Russian threats and the belief that if Russia receives what it wants, it will be somehow more amenable. But as the author points out, Russia will never be “at peace” with its neighbors and especially its European neighbors in the broadest sense. Having a “normal” relationship with Russia means dealing with and fending off lots of hostile behavior. Caving to bravado and hostility encourages more of same from Russian leadership.
 

Russia cannot feel secure without a Europe weak and pliant. Russia views any concessions as evidence of that weakness and pliancy and will push even further. 
 

This mindset also reveals the absurdity of the Russian argument “what if we stationed Russian troops and missiles in Canada or Mexico?” A better question is, why have generations of modern Canadian and Mexican leaders gone to bed each night with every problem in the world on their mind EXCEPT the possibility of a U.S. invasion. It’s too ridiculous to even think about, which is why it’s equally ridiculous to imagine them begging to join the Warsaw Pact or seeking out security guarantees.
 

The United States legitimately wants its neighbors to be wealthy, capable, and stable— our biggest concerns with Mexico are a lack of these things. By contrast, Russia prefers its neighbors impoverished and chaotic.

But back to what’s at hand— Putin is no fool and he understands he cannot bully and bluff his way into concessions without making his threats appear real. Which is why I’d expect any staged “invasion” to look exactly like preparation for a real one, expenses and logistics movements and all. It’s in for a penny, in for a pound on this for Uncle Vladimir.

 

[956 Worldwide 34705]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Republican love of Russia is weird as fuck (even before those Congressional members went to Russia on July 4th).  It's easy to say that Putin is what they wish Trump would have been, but no, there's something else there that's odd.

I am unsurprised. I’ve lurked around reading “thoughtful” conservatism for a while and Russia and its proxies have done a bang-up job cultivating certain types of thoughtful conservatives as well as the unthoughtful, racist fringe. They have cultivated a Russia that is everything to every type. For the traditionalists, Russia projects an image of a confident, socially conservative, independent nation where Christianity has a seat at the public table. For the racists, Russia frames itself as the last bastion of European civilization against the migrant welcoming West. For the anti-globalists, Russia preaches “restraint” in foreign policy and a multipolar world. It’s been a long-term, sophisticated influence operation leveraging state actors, academics, religious figures, and all sorts of roundabout ways of subtle steering of elite thought, which trickles down. A remarkable about face for the former darling of the far-left. And even more remarkable given that actual Russian reality and behavior is the opposite of the image it has crafted. 

 

[BrickHorn 18221]

I like this @956 Worldwide cat. He’s the Antistatis. 

 

Edited December 26, 2021 by BrickHorn

[staboner 4969]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Republican love of Russia is weird as fuck (even before those Congressional members went to Russia on July 4th).  It's easy to say that Putin is what they wish Trump would have been, but no, there's something else there that's odd.

17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am unsurprised. I’ve lurked around reading “thoughtful” conservatism for a while and Russia and its proxies have done a bang-up job cultivating certain types of thoughtful conservatives as well as the unthoughtful, racist fringe. They have cultivated a Russia that is everything to every type. For the traditionalists, Russia projects an image of a confident, socially conservative, independent nation where Christianity has a seat at the public table. For the racists, Russia frames itself as the last bastion of European civilization against the migrant welcoming West. For the anti-globalists, Russia preaches “restraint” in foreign policy and a multipolar world. It’s been a long-term, sophisticated influence operation leveraging state actors, academics, religious figures, and all sorts of roundabout ways of subtle steering of elite thought, which trickles down. A remarkable about face for the former darling of the far-left. And even more remarkable given that actual Russian reality and behavior is the opposite of the image it has crafted. 

 

all that shit is fine and happening, but I would add to not overthink this too much now with Rs. its fatalism or fuck you-ism there. what better way to do that then look up to the previous enemy. 

[NAVY 6740]

8 minutes ago, staboner said:

all that shit is fine and happening, but I would add to not overthink this too much now with Rs. its fatalism or fuck you-ism there. what better way to do that then look up to the previous enemy. 

Shouldn’t you be checking the koala traps right now? 

[kevwun 15776]

It is contrarianism.  They can’t agree with dirty libs and no position is untenable as long as they can fight over it.

[Anastasis 23469]

2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

I like this @956 Worldwide cat. He’s the Antistatis. 

 

Lol. He’s a really good poster and has an interesting perspective. Would have been interesting to hear some real time takes back when y’all were huffing server and bounty fumes. 

[DDD Dad 14336]

Lol. He’s a really good poster and has an interesting perspective. Would have been interesting to hear some real time takes back when y’all were huffing server and bounty fumes. 

Tell us more about The FISA court.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, DDD Dad said:

Tell us more about The FISA court.

It should offend all Americans. And particularly those that are professionally charged with effecting justice and the rule of law. 

[BrickHorn 18221]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Lol. He’s a really good poster and has an interesting perspective. Would have been interesting to hear some real time takes back when y’all were huffing server and bounty fumes. 

Define “y’all.”