[Harris+Walz] The 2024 DNC: TURN DOWN FOR WHAT?!

[Hawndoh 2409]

I'm more concerned with his school voucher stuff than the middle east.

[Michael Knight 13217]

"fixing the middle east" is not something I expect from a VP candidate 

[Brian Fantana 6862]

11 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

I'm more concerned with his school voucher stuff than the middle east.

Yeah his support for that shit is incredibly worrying to me.

[kevwun 16437]

I have a feeling the school voucher stance is because he's also taken money from that jackass that gave a bunch to Abbott, which would be very bad.

Edited August 5 by kevwun

[Js1 87171]

Just now, kevwun said:

I have a feeling it's because he's also taken money from that jackass that gave a bunch to Abbott.

$100k apparently 

[kevwun 16437]

Someone with this many red flags has some even worse ones we still don't know about.  He seems like a walking scandal.

Edited August 5 by kevwun

[Red Five 41703]

Considering the number of excellent candidates available to choose from, Shapiro feels like a monster unforced error waiting to happen. 

[Brian Fantana 6862]

Gonna need to hear more from that one guy about how great a candidate Shapiro is.

[Js1 87171]

 

 

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

19 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Im not sure it's as much his views as it is the obvious attacks it will draw from the right, and the distraction of answering them. 

When and where will those attacks come? How will they land when the right’s position on Israel is much more extreme than Shapiro’s? (And Shapiro’s isn’t particularly extreme compared to the other VP candidates.) Shapiro has been very critical of Netanyahu, calling him “one of the worst leaders of all time” and “a dangerous and destructive force.” He’s in favor of a two state solution. Trump is not and will let Netanyahu run rampant both in Gaza and the West Bank. So how will the right attack Shapiro on his Israel policy when the attacks from the left are that he’s too pro-Israel?

Also, let’s remember that the Harris administration‘s policy in Israel will be set by Harris, not by her VP. Just like Kamala changed some of her positions when she joined the Biden administration in support of Biden’s policies, the same will happen with whomever her VP is. If Shapiro is the pick, his positions on Israel, school vouchers, gun control, etc. will be whatever Kamala determines they should be.

[Chuckie Finster 23036]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

What percentage of Dems do you think have the war in the Middle East as their SINGLE biggest issue?

I think I've made my views on that topic pretty clear around here in a pretty strong way but wouldn't place it anywhere near the top of my concerns. Does it factor into the calculus? Sure, but like most Americans, it's pretty far down my list. According to Gallup, only 1% of Americans see it as the biggest problem right now. Back in the spring: March (2%), April (2%), and at its peak in May (3%).

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx

 

Are there niche constituencies like the Muslims in Michigan or young radical progressives that could be turned off by Kamala selecting Shapiro? Absolutely. But I think both of those groups are vanishingly small and will come "home" at the end of the day. As much as we all like to talk about the Michigan Muslims, they still only account for 1% of the state's population (the same percentage of Jews), about the same as the US. In Wayne County, where there's the highest concentration, they still only comprise 4% of the population.

https://www.prri.org/spotlight/inside-michigan-understanding-partisanship-religious-affiliation-and-religious-diversity-across-the-state/

Let's look at 10 states where the margin was closest in 2020:

• Michigan (margin +2.78%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Nevada (+2.39%):
  •  Jews: 2%
  • Muslims: <1%
• Pennsylvania (+1.16%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Wisconsin (+0.63%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Arizona (+0.31%)
  • Jews: 2%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Georgia (+0.24%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: <1%
• North Carolina (-1.35%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: <1%
• Florida (-3.36%):
  • Jews: 3%
  • Muslims: <1%
• Texas (-5.58%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims:1%

In every single close-ish state, the Jewish population exceeds or is at least as big as the Muslim one. And while Muslims have voted more Democratic than Jews over the last four elections, I would bet that they already vote at lower rates and could, therefore, be seen as a little less reliable constituency.

https://religioninpublic.blog/2021/03/31/the-2020-vote-for-president-by-religious-groups-other-faith/

 

NOW, let's look at college students. According to a Generation Lab poll at the height of the protests, only 8% of all college students participated on either side of the protests, and college students ranked the issue LAST on their list of concerns that is most important to them. Moreover, young voters are about the least reliable bloc that Democrats can count on.

 

I strongly suspect that a lot of the concerns about picking Shapiro related to his stance on the war are way overblown, and I do think that liberals/progressives/Palestinian supporters will be far more rational about their votes in the coming election than people are giving them credit for.

+rep, this is a phenomenal post.  Thanks.

[Hank Kingsley 21728]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

Insider trading going on in the VP betting markets. 

[Mo Horn 8937]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

And if you believe that I've got a bridge for sale. 

[kevwun 16437]

9 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

When and where will those attacks come? How will they land when the right’s position on Israel is much more extreme than Shapiro’s? (And Shapiro’s isn’t particularly extreme compared to the other VP candidates.) Shapiro has been very critical of Netanyahu, calling him “one of the worst leaders of all time” and “a dangerous and destructive force.” He’s in favor of a two state solution. Trump is not and will let Netanyahu run rampant both in Gaza and the West Bank. So how will the right attack Shapiro on his Israel policy when the attacks from the left are that he’s too pro-Israel?

Also, let’s remember that the Harris administration‘s policy in Israel will be set by Harris, not by her VP. Just like Kamala changed some of her positions when she joined the Biden administration in support of Biden’s policies, the same will happen with whomever her VP is. If Shapiro is the pick, his positions on Israel, school vouchers, gun control, etc. will be whatever Kamala determines they should be.

The problem is that he would be VP, one heartbeat away from being President.  Honestly, I don't even give a shit about his stance on Israel.  It's a unsolvable quagmire and there is no right side.  His willingness to accept the school voucher scam is a tremendous warning about his morals and decision making process though.  That dude doesn't need to be within sniffing distance of the Presidency. 

Edited August 5 by kevwun

[immamac 44290]

Just now, kevwun said:

The problem is that he would be VP, one heartbeat away from being President.  Honestly, I don't even give a shit about his stance on Israel.  It's a unsolvable quagmire and there is no right side.  His willingness to accept the school voucher scam is a tremendous warning about his morals and decision making process though.  That dude doesn't need to be within sniffing distance of the Presidency.

This is where I keep landing. It's less about everything else and more that I just couldn't see this guy as president. 

[mdmost 43920]

I just feel things have been going about as perfect as they can that we're bound to get some form of disappointment. Whereas Walz or Beshear make so much sense to keep the momentum going, Shapiro feels like it will shift the narrative to more of a defensive posture. You have to stay on the offensive and crush Trump now. The media is going to pick Shapiro apart. 

[Brisketexan 106872]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is where I keep landing. It's less about everything else and more that I just couldn't see this guy as president. 

We're still more likely to see the double-jackoff-dancing, habitually lying, rapist, convicted felon, failed businessman game show host as president, so.....the bar is not merely low.  It is buried at a depth not reachable by current drilling technology.

[Saint Austin 776]

Hi, conservative Never-Trumper here. Doesn't Shapiro make the most sense to get Kamala to 270 with Pennsylvania the most important battleground state out there this election? Do the lesser potential issues surrounding him really make much of a difference?

[Js1 87171]

Just now, Saint Austin said:

Hi, conservative Never-Trumper here. Doesn't Shapiro make the most sense to get Kamala to 270 with Pennsylvania the most important battleground state out there this election? Do the lesser potential issues surrounding him really make much of a difference?

No, she can and should win PA without him.  Every Democrat from Bill to Biden, except for Hillary, has won PA.  

[Saint Austin 776]

Yeah, and that one blemish was against this same dude, who currently leads in PA.

[Firemans4Horn 18528]

5 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Hi, conservative Never-Trumper here. Doesn't Shapiro make the most sense to get Kamala to 270 with Pennsylvania the most important battleground state out there this election? Do the lesser potential issues surrounding him really make much of a difference?

Plenty of smart strategists see it your way. 

[Js1 87171]

3 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Yeah, and that one blemish was against this same dude, who currently leads in PA.

Hillary was a poor candidate who didn't campaign worth a shit in swing states. 2024 is not 2016.

Shapiro might win you PA, but he's a walking red flag with his issues.

Edited August 5 by Js1

[Red Five 41703]

9 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Hi, conservative Never-Trumper here. Doesn't Shapiro make the most sense to get Kamala to 270 with Pennsylvania the most important battleground state out there this election? Do the lesser potential issues surrounding him really make much of a difference?

Counter argument is that he doesn't need to be on the ticket to help in PA. And someone like Walz would help more in those Big 10 states by Minnesota.

[mdmost 43920]

Or Walz could help with PA and Shapiro also becomes a surrogate who tours with them in PA. One thing I feel we're getting this cycle is a almost wholly united Democratic Party. Beating Trump is all that matters.

Edited August 5 by mdmost

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

The old 2020 plan

 

the new 2032  plan:

Spoiler

 

 

[TexEx15 17927]

 

[Js1 87171]

Woah thats a big jump 

[Planet Houston 4950]

5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Or Walz could help with PA and Shapiro also becomes a surrogate who tours with them in PA. One thing I feel we're getting this cycle is a almost wholly united Democratic Party. Beating Trump is all that matters.

This is my hope - that Walz is the choice and she is meeting with Shapiro to ensure he will stay on message, join them on stage tomorrow despite not being the pick, and still be a vocal advocate for her presidency.

[Hank Kingsley 21728]

I just saw Dem Rep. Auchincloss (Massachusetts) said that the Shapiro criticism has an "undercurrent of Anti-Semitism". Fucking dumbass. And of course this is exactly what Republicans are saying. 

 

 

[bolverk 30313]

7 minutes ago, Saint Austin said:

Hi, conservative Never-Trumper here. Doesn't Shapiro make the most sense to get Kamala to 270 with Pennsylvania the most important battleground state out there this election? Do the lesser potential issues surrounding him really make much of a difference?

Conventional wisdom would say Shapiro is the safer choice by bringing PA's electoral votes, but most posters around here are of the belief that Walz could be more useful in:

1. Raising enthusiasm among the Democratic base with his relentless positivity,
2. Attracting moderate fence-sitters and never-Trumpers like yourself and
3. Reaching out to rural voters across the country, especially across the Midwest.

Besides that, many question Shapiro's ability to bring votes outside of Pennsylvania, and a lot of us believe Harris can get PA without him.

It basically comes down to whether the Harris camp wants to play it safe and possibly be on defense, then they'll go with Shapiro. If they want to shoot for the moon and get aggressive, then they should go with Walz.

I'm not entirely certain I agree with that, but it sums up the current collective CR consensus fairly well.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I just saw Dem Rep. Auchincloss (Massachusetts) said that the Shapiro criticism has an "undercurrent of Anti-Semitism". Fucking dumbass. And of course this is exactly what Republicans are saying. 

 

 

Anschluss?  Yeah, more than an undercurrent. 

[TexEx15 17927]

Hmm…

[swraith 348]

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

Hmm…

Why not put that tweet out two weeks ago?

[Bozo_Casanova 26823]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

What percentage of Dems do you think have the war in the Middle East as their SINGLE biggest issue?

I think I've made my views on that topic pretty clear around here in a pretty strong way but wouldn't place it anywhere near the top of my concerns. Does it factor into the calculus? Sure, but like most Americans, it's pretty far down my list. According to Gallup, only 1% of Americans see it as the biggest problem right now. Back in the spring: March (2%), April (2%), and at its peak in May (3%).

https://news.gallup.com/poll/1675/most-important-problem.aspx

 

Are there niche constituencies like the Muslims in Michigan or young radical progressives that could be turned off by Kamala selecting Shapiro? Absolutely. But I think both of those groups are vanishingly small and will come "home" at the end of the day. As much as we all like to talk about the Michigan Muslims, they still only account for 1% of the state's population (the same percentage of Jews), about the same as the US. In Wayne County, where there's the highest concentration, they still only comprise 4% of the population.

https://www.prri.org/spotlight/inside-michigan-understanding-partisanship-religious-affiliation-and-religious-diversity-across-the-state/

Let's look at 10 states where the margin was closest in 2020:

• Michigan (margin +2.78%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Nevada (+2.39%):
  •  Jews: 2%
  • Muslims: <1%
• Pennsylvania (+1.16%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Wisconsin (+0.63%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Arizona (+0.31%)
  • Jews: 2%
  • Muslims: 1%
• Georgia (+0.24%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: <1%
• North Carolina (-1.35%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims: <1%
• Florida (-3.36%):
  • Jews: 3%
  • Muslims: <1%
• Texas (-5.58%):
  • Jews: 1%
  • Muslims:1%

In every single close-ish state, the Jewish population exceeds or is at least as big as the Muslim one. And while Muslims have voted more Democratic than Jews over the last four elections, I would bet that they already vote at lower rates and could, therefore, be seen as a little less reliable constituency.

https://religioninpublic.blog/2021/03/31/the-2020-vote-for-president-by-religious-groups-other-faith/

 

NOW, let's look at college students. According to a Generation Lab poll at the height of the protests, only 8% of all college students participated on either side of the protests, and college students ranked the issue LAST on their list of concerns that is most important to them. Moreover, young voters are about the least reliable bloc that Democrats can count on.

 

I strongly suspect that a lot of the concerns about picking Shapiro related to his stance on the war are way overblown, and I do think that liberals/progressives/Palestinian supporters will be far more rational about their votes in the coming election than people are giving them credit for.

Well done

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

3 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

From The Bulwark:

 

 

“For days there has been chatter on the progressive interwebs about how Josh Shapiro would “divide” the party. Extremely online politicos upset about his views on Israel or school vouchers or his Kosher Obama speaking style have asserted this dispositively.

[…]

“If you are involved in these online meme wars, I grant that it might feel as if things are very contentious. You might see yourself as being on one side of a battle that must be won, and that your activism is the tip of the spear that represents a broader coalition behind you out in the world.”

It seems like we have something akin to that going on here. I don’t know if he’ll be the pick but if he is then I hope all of the Chicken Littles around here who’ve been acting like it will be the end of the world if Shapiro gets the nod can get over it in a hurry. He was the front runner from the start and we shouldn’t be surprised if he’s the choice for Kamala’s running mate. 

[Pancho 46253]

This is as of 30 seconds ago:

 

[Brian Fantana 6862]

16 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

This is my hope - that Walz is the choice and she is meeting with Shapiro to ensure he will stay on message, join them on stage tomorrow despite not being the pick, and still be a vocal advocate for her presidency.

This is my hope as well.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2888]

I think Kelly would have given the Dems the best shot in turning all of the battleground states. But whoever is picked will be a o k.

[Brian Fantana 6862]

2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

“For days there has been chatter on the progressive interwebs about how Josh Shapiro would “divide” the party. Extremely online politicos upset about his views on Israel or school vouchers or his Kosher Obama speaking style have asserted this dispositively.

[…]

“If you are involved in these online meme wars, I grant that it might feel as if things are very contentious. You might see yourself as being on one side of a battle that must be won, and that your activism is the tip of the spear that represents a broader coalition behind you out in the world.”

It seems like we have something akin to that going on here. I don’t know if he’ll be the pick but if he is then I hope all of the Chicken Littles around here who’ve been acting like it will be the end of the world if Shapiro gets the nod can get over it in a hurry. He was the front runner from the start and we shouldn’t be surprised if he’s the choice for Kamala’s running mate. 

Please. It's not the end of the world, he's just a candidate that's much easier for the GOP to message against, and there's no guarantee he would move the needle at all as the VP pick vs. just staying PA governor and showing his support there.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2888]

Does anyone think it's a little weird that Kamala's husband hasn't challenged Trump to a boxing/cage match just for calling his wife stupid?

If I am going to give Ted Cruz shit about not defending his wife, then why not go there?

 

[Hank Kingsley 21728]

 

1 minute ago, WhatTheBuck said:

“For days there has been chatter on the progressive interwebs about how Josh Shapiro would “divide” the party. Extremely online politicos upset about his views on Israel or school vouchers or his Kosher Obama speaking style have asserted this dispositively.

[…]

“If you are involved in these online meme wars, I grant that it might feel as if things are very contentious. You might see yourself as being on one side of a battle that must be won, and that your activism is the tip of the spear that represents a broader coalition behind you out in the world.”

It seems like we have something akin to that going on here. I don’t know if he’ll be the pick but if he is then I hope all of the Chicken Littles around here who’ve been acting like it will be the end of the world if Shapiro gets the nod can get over it in a hurry. He was the front runner from the start and we shouldn’t be surprised if he’s the choice for Kamala’s running mate. 

Kamala already has my vote guaranteed. This VP decision will determine how excited I am to go out and try to convert any undecideds and past Trump voters in my circle. I also do not consider myself part of the left, though we may agree on a lot of stuff. 

Side note: The people at Bulwark do a good job, but they are all former Republicans. They are gaining way too much trust in the Dem world because of their anti-Trump stance. 

 

 

[Js1 87171]

3 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I think Kelly would have given the Dems the best shot in turning all of the battleground states. But whoever is picked will be a o k.

Kelly’s big issue was that he was against the PRO Act until he was a VP contender. You need those unions to go out and canvass. Culinary in NV, hospitality has pledged to knock on 3.3 million doors 

[wildcat09 29577]

19 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Conventional wisdom would say Shapiro is the safer choice by bringing PA's electoral votes, but most posters around here are of the belief that Walz could be more useful in:

1. Raising enthusiasm among the Democratic base with his relentless positivity,
2. Attracting moderate fence-sitters and never-Trumpers like yourself and
3. Reaching out to rural voters across the country, especially across the Midwest.

Besides that, many question Shapiro's ability to bring votes outside of Pennsylvania, and a lot of us believe Harris can get PA without him.

It basically comes down to whether the Harris camp wants to play it safe and possibly be on defense, then they'll go with Shapiro. If they want to shoot for the moon and get aggressive, then they should go with Walz.

I'm not entirely certain I agree with that, but it sums up the current collective CR consensus fairly well.

Mostly agree with this, though because of his baggage (which isn't terrible but we want as little talk about Israel/Gaza in this election as possible) I don't even see Shapiro as the "safe" pick. I think those that do believe he's the "safe" pick not because he can guarantee Pennsylvania (he can't) but because he excites a few big donors more.  I think that's bad calculus and I also don't give a shit what excites a few big donors.

[Gatorubet 30710]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Well, I can assure you it was insightful yet empathetic. 

And I, for one, both appreciated and downloaded the coupons.

[Chuckie Finster 23036]

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

Someone with this many red flags has some even worse ones we still don't know about.  He seems like a walking scandal.

I guess my counter to this is that Shapiro has been widely considered as a future star of the party for years, and competed in a high visibility, competitive election for Governor.  His oppo file was constructed a while ago and his shit is known, for better or worse.  Meanwhile, none of us knew who Walz was a month ago, and just TODAY I'm seeing information about a DUI and a photo of him with Netanyahu make it's way across social media. 

Walz is being made into a folk hero.  He's likable as hell and he very well might be one, but I also think there's a bit of willful ignorance involved in putting him on this pedestal. 

[Gatorubet 30710]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Mostly agree with this, though because of his baggage (which isn't terrible but we want as little talk about Israel/Gaza in this election as possible) I don't even see Shapiro as the "safe" pick. I think those that do believe he's the "safe" pick not because he can guarantee Pennsylvania (he can't) but because he excites a few big donors more.  I think that's bad calculus and I also don't give a shit what excites a few big donors.

Governor Shapiro can campaign like a maniac for Harris in Pennsylvania without being the veep pic.  It’s not like Pennsylvanians will ignore Shapiro unless he is a member of the ticket.

[yoladu 4187]

once you hear it, you cant unhear it.

 

[WhatTheBuck 28928]

2 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I think Kelly would have given the Dems the best shot in turning all of the battleground states. But whoever is picked will be a o k.

Kelly, who attended Netanyahu’s address to Congress and applauded when Bibi referred to pro-Palestinian protesters as “Iran’s useful idiots.” His Israel policy is no different from Shapiro’s but for some reason he doesn’t get called out in it. Can’t imagine why.

But that position aside, I would’ve liked him as a VP candidate also. He’s not a great orator but he’d be good on the border issue, on gun control, and as an astronaut he’d be a representative for science. We could use more of that In government. He’s also got experience winning competitive elections. 

[Hank Kingsley 21728]

1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

Governor Shapiro can campaign like a maniac for Harris in Pennsylvania without being the veep pic.  It’s not like Pennsylvanians will ignore Shapiro unless he is a member of the ticket.

Yes, by not being on the ticket he can spend MORE time in Pennsylvania helping, instead of sending him all over the country.