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Manafort Trial


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7 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So if he's already on the hook for basically life, why would he take a plea here?

Safety in prison from the Russians.  Trump promised him a pardon.  He's already on the hook for the rest of his life as a result of the first trial, so why go through the motions on a second trial and have to pay his attorneys for their time on the second trial.

 

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I doubt he's doing this for any reason other than saving the legal fees associated with the trial.  He'll be pardoned, it's essentially been overtly promised through twitter.

Question about proffer and pardons:

If he doesn't include the details of Trump Tower meeting and Trump pardons him for the crimes the government has currently brought, can Mueller still indict on conspiracy charges related to Trump Tower meeting as they are unrelated to crimes for which he would get a pardon?

 

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3 minutes ago, Yuk said:

I doubt he's doing this for any reason other than saving the legal fees associated with the trial.  He'll be pardoned, it's essentially been overtly promised through twitter.

Question about proffer and pardons:

If he doesn't include the details of Trump Tower meeting and Trump pardons him for the crimes the government has currently brought, can Mueller still indict on conspiracy charges related to Trump Tower meeting as they are unrelated to crimes for which he would get a pardon?

 

He can be pardoned for crimes he hasn't even been charged with, I believe (not positive, though).

BUT.....if pardoned, he CANNOT refuse to testify, because the 5th amendment is no longer in play (but, exception: if parallel state charges could be brought, he can still invoke the 5th).  If the 5th isn't in play, then a refusal to testify would be contempt, and he can go to jail for that.

But, yes, Trump is going to pardon him in order to obstruct justice and the revelation of the truth, and the GOP Senate is 100% going to let him get away with it.  Have you not subscribed to my newsletter?  Your issue of "We're fucked, and nobody is going to save us" should have been sent by now.

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So it would make sense for Trump to leave him in some legal jeopardy.  The actual pardon (the language) will be very interesting to look at as I'm sure it will be drafted by teams of attorneys from white house and his personal law firm(s).  And that pardon will also be a clear signal to anyone else that is being pressured to cooperate.

Side note: We need to amend the fuck out of the constitution to reign in presidential power.

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24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

He can be pardoned for crimes he hasn't even been charged with, I believe (not positive, though).

Yes.  Ford pardoned Nixon for crimes that were uncharged.

 

Quote

BUT.....if pardoned, he CANNOT refuse to testify, because the 5th amendment is no longer in play (but, exception: if parallel state charges could be brought, he can still invoke the 5th).  If the 5th isn't in play, then a refusal to testify would be contempt, and he can go to jail for that.

But, yes, Trump is going to pardon him in order to obstruct justice and the revelation of the truth, and the GOP Senate is 100% going to let him get away with it.  Have you not subscribed to my newsletter?  Your issue of "We're fucked, and nobody is going to save us" should have been sent by now.

In the "we're fucked" newsletter, no one is going to enforce the theoretical contempt charges.  Trump'll just pardon him for contempt.  But it won't even come to that, because who or what would he be in contempt of?  Contempt of Congress?  Like the Congress who let Trump staffers invoke nonexistent privileges and lie repeatedly would ever charge him with that.   Assuming they ever even hold a real hearing.  Contempt of court in a prosecution of other Trump associates?  Trump would just pardon everyone.

Rule of law is gone in this country. 

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4 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

In the "we're fucked" newsletter, no one is going to enforce the theoretical contempt charges.  Trump'll just pardon him for contempt.  But it won't even come to that, because who or what would he be in contempt of?  Contempt of Congress?  Like the Congress who let Trump staffers invoke nonexistent privileges and lie repeatedly would ever charge him with that.   Assuming they ever even hold a real hearing.  Contempt of court in a prosecution of other Trump associates?  Trump would just pardon everyone.

Rule of law is gone in this country. 

Well, YOU get it.  Other folks are coming around to it, too.  We're being run by a criminal syndicate.  There's a gaping loophole in the Rule of Law - the President can exhibit utter contempt for the law, and only the Senate can stop him.  BUT, if the Senate is in on it with him.....game over.

We might as well change our national anthem to the Price is Right loser horn.

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Well, YOU get it.  Other folks are coming around to it, too.  We're being run by a criminal syndicate.  There's a gaping loophole in the Rule of Law - the President can exhibit utter contempt for the law, and only the Senate can stop him.  BUT, if the Senate is in on it with him.....game over.
We might as well change our national anthem to the Price is Right loser horn.
This is an incredibly frightening articulation of our current predicament. The drafters of the constitution never forsaw the level of party over country we see today.
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5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It would be colossally unwise for Trump to pardon Manafort before the midterms.

Again, like the Mueller firing, Trump isn’t going to pardon Manafort anytime soon. IMO

He'll do it all AFTER the midterms.

Even under the best-case scenario, there's no way to get 2/3 of the Senate to vote to convict, because (R).  The cold and brutal truth is that Trump can do anything he wants -- I mean it, ANYTHING -- and he is completely immune from consequences, or removal from office.

We are Marsellus Wallace, just a short while into this scene:

Marcellus-Wallace.jpg

Except there is no Butch to save us.  We're gonna be in that back room with Zed and the boys until AT LEAST 2020.  He'll do WHATEVER HE WANTS to us....and thee's nothing you, I, or anyone else can do about it.  Because the only hope we have -- the Senate -- will let him.

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While I think there’s a chance you’re correct, I don’t think it’s that simple.  

These Republican Senators are not Trump cult members, they’re not even loyal to their own ideology or country.  They are autonomous actors that operate with self interest as their top priority.  

If Trump is impeached in the House, the Republicans in the Senate will have the leverage and political self interest to force Trump to resign.  Trump isn’t doing it for them anymore.  His poll numbers are weapons grade dogshit. 

Hail Pence! 

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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

While I think there’s a chance you’re correct, I don’t think it’s that simple.  

These Republican Senators are not Trump cult members, they’re not even loyal to their own ideology or country.  They are autonomous actors that operate with self interest as their top priority.  

If Trump is impeached in the House, the Republicans in the Senate will have the leverage and political self interest to force Trump to resign.  Trump isn’t doing it for them anymore.  His poll numbers are weapons grade dogshit. 

Hail Pence! 

You repeatedly ignore the elephant in the room.  GOP officials are beholden to GOP primary voters and GOP voters in the general election.  Without them, they cannot win, period.

And the GOP is the Party of Trump.  It is literally nothing else these days -- if you are less than 100% loyal to Trump, you are out.  To keep their GOP voters/base, they must remain 100% loyal to Trump.  And betrayal of Trump will be punished.  They are all-in on Trumpism, and there's no going back.

Yes, they MIGHT lose a general election because more Dem voters show up, are angrier, etc.  But they WILL lose an election if their base doesn't support them.  That certainty keeps them in line.  The GOP is Trump's plaything, to do with, and command, as he wishes.  The GOP Senators will not vote to convict.  Never.  Ever.  Because to do so means they WILL lose re-election.  To not do so means they MIGHT lose re-election.  They'll choose an uncertain win over a certain loss all day long. 

It's over.

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You are giving Trump way too much credit.  He’s an ignorant bitch that will tuck tail and run when pressed.  And the GOP Senators are beholden to the big money donors more than the mouth breather Trumpkin voters.

Hear me now believe later, there will be no Trump trial in the Senate if he’s impeached.  He couldn’t handle the public humiliation.  He will resign with a full pardon for himself and his family.

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

You are giving Trump way too much credit.  He’s an ignorant bitch that will tuck tail and run when pressed.  And the GOP Senators are beholden to the big money donors more than the mouth breather Trumpkin voters.

Hear me now believe later, there will be no Trump trial in the Senate if he’s impeached.  He couldn’t handle the public humiliation.  He will resign with a full pardon for himself and his family.

Nope.

He WAS that man.  But now, he has absolutely overdosed on power and hubris.  He will not abandon his destiny, to be the most powerful and important man in the world.  You really don't understand "total depravity," do you?  Seriously.  Imagine how bad it can be.  Then imagine it being 1,000X that bad.  And you'll be getting close to reality.

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Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He backed down on the family separation policy when pressed.  Just saying, he’s not invincible.

Did he?  Have you looked at the numbers of separated minors in custody?  And the admin's stated defiance of court orders?

He hasn't backed down from shit.

He is untouchable.  The GOP Senate has made it so, and he knows it.

Nobody.  NOBODY.  Is going to save the Republic.  Instead, they will happily sacrifice it on the altar of their political ambition.  I will never forgive the GOP for what they've done, but then, I won't live in a country where it really matters anymore.  The damage, once done, can never be undone.  This is how it ends.

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Just now, TwiceHorn said:

I think Hugo makes excellent points.  The GOP has no clue who votes for them.  They glommed onto Trump because people voted for him and (R).

Once Trump's popularity numbers dive below a certain level, they'll dump him fast.

Nope.  Can a GOP Senator win re-election without a good 75% of his base voting for him?  Because that's where it stands.  75% (more, actually) of GOP voters are full members of Cult 45.  Betray Trump, and they will not support you.  

Trump's overall popularity numbers are completely irrelevant.  Trump's popularity numbers among the GOP base is what matters.  That approval number is over 75%.  Betray Trump, lose the base.  Lose the base, lose your seat.

Total depravity.  Criminal syndicate.  Y'all know humanity's dark side.  You have read enough history books.  This is how shit like this goes down.  The failsafe has failed.  There's no going back.  

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He stopped separating families. While his border policy is still an atrocity, he did backpedal on kidnapping kids.

I know it’s a raindrop in an ocean of evil shit but he’s still contained for some part.

He hasn’t fired Sessions, Rosenstein, or Mueller even though everyone knows he wants to.  His military leaders are ignoring his stupid orders.  

While he’s still politically influential, I’d say he’s become less powerful as time has gone on in his presidency.

He rants about the Russia investigation every day but does nothing about it.

 

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8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

He backed down on the family separation policy when pressed.  Just saying, he’s not invincible.

No.  He pretended to not have a family separation policy and then had some ridiculous executive order signing ceremony in which he lied about ending Obama's policy of family separations.  And then his administration proceeded to ignore court orders on reunification.  And Congress and his base either is stupid enough to believe he ended family separations or doesn't give a fuck.  

And he has not suffered any consequences for ignoring the court order.  No one is in jail for contempt.  No one is making a move to reunite the families.  There is no pending legislation.  There are no scheduled hearings.  Nothing.

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1 hour ago, Yuk said:

So it would make sense for Trump to leave him in some legal jeopardy.  The actual pardon (the language) will be very interesting to look at as I'm sure it will be drafted by teams of attorneys from white house and his personal law firm(s).  And that pardon will also be a clear signal to anyone else that is being pressured to cooperate.

Side note: We need to amend the fuck out of the constitution to reign in presidential power.

Rein.

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He stopped separating families. While his border policy is still an atrocity, he did backpedal on kidnapping kids.
I know it’s a raindrop in an ocean of evil shit but he’s still contained for some part.
He hasn’t fired Sessions, Rosenstein, or Mueller even though everyone knows he wants to.  His military leaders are ignoring his stupid orders.  
While he’s still politically influential, I’d say he’s become less powerful as time has gone on in his presidency.
He rants about the Russia investigation every day but does nothing about it.
 
Did he?:
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22 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I think Hugo makes excellent points.  The GOP has no clue who votes for them.  They glommed onto Trump because people voted for him and (R).

Once Trump's popularity numbers dive below a certain level, they'll dump him fast.

His GOP numbers are at like 90%.   Pretty much every R primary candidate he supported won, and pretty much every one of them who wasn't viewed as a true believer lost.  I don't see how he's even close to losing the support of Republicans.  And if he isn't now, what could ever make that change? 

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1 hour ago, lemonlime said:

No.  He pretended to not have a family separation policy and then had some ridiculous executive order signing ceremony in which he lied about ending Obama's policy of family separations.  And then his administration proceeded to ignore court orders on reunification.  And Congress and his base either is stupid enough to believe he ended family separations or doesn't give a fuck.  

And he has not suffered any consequences for ignoring the court order.  No one is in jail for contempt.  No one is making a move to reunite the families.  There is no pending legislation.  There are no scheduled hearings.  Nothing.

 

1 hour ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Did he?:

Again, as far as we know, the Trump Administration has halted the practice of kidnapping kids from their parents arms and sending them across country in the middle of the night.

Yall think I’m giving him credit or something, I’m not.  My point was he reacted to intense political pressure.  Yes, they are still detaining kids that cross the border unaccompanied.  Yes, no one has been held accountable for this awful policy.

Lots of work left to be done on this and it starts with flipping the House in 57 days.

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1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

His GOP numbers are at like 90%.   Pretty much every R primary candidate he supported won, and pretty much every one of them who wasn't viewed as a true believer lost.  I don't see how he's even close to losing the support of Republicans.  And if he isn't now, what could ever make that change? 

A blue wave and a shitload of public hearings where Trump people plead the 5th.

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2 hours ago, Mojo Hand said:

His GOP numbers are at like 90%.   Pretty much every R primary candidate he supported won, and pretty much every one of them who wasn't viewed as a true believer lost.  I don't see how he's even close to losing the support of Republicans.  And if he isn't now, what could ever make that change? 

He can't win with only Republican support.

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11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


But all the GOP officeholders WILL LOSE without it. And they will lose that support if they turn on Trump.

Y’all keep talking around that truth and pretending it doesn’t matter. But it’s the ONLY thing that matters.

 

15 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Did he?  Have you looked at the numbers of separated minors in custody?  And the admin's stated defiance of court orders?

He hasn't backed down from shit.

He is untouchable.  The GOP Senate has made it so, and he knows it.

Nobody.  NOBODY.  Is going to save the Republic.  Instead, they will happily sacrifice it on the altar of their political ambition.  I will never forgive the GOP for what they've done, but then, I won't live in a country where it really matters anymore.  The damage, once done, can never be undone.  This is how it ends.

And you pretend the world is static.  Who is coming to save us?  The neutering process of the November vote.  D's will be in.  The number of investigations will go plaid.  Trump will get 0 done from 2019 through 2020.  There is no wall.  There is no more tax shenanigans.  It doesn't matter if Trumpists in Congress stay full Trumpists.  They'll have no power.  You won't get an impeachment/conviction, and the Trump related criminals will be walking free when this is all said and done, but that is it.  That isn't the republic.  That's just an embarrassing phase.

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And you pretend the world is static.  Who is coming to save us?  The neutering process of the November vote.  D's will be in.  The number of investigations will go plaid.  Trump will get 0 done from 2019 through 2020.  There is no wall.  There is no more tax shenanigans.  It doesn't matter if Trumpists in Congress stay full Trumpists.  They'll have no power.  You won't get an impeachment/conviction, and the Trump related criminals will be walking free when this is all said and done, but that is it.  That isn't the republic.  That's just an embarrassing phase.

Who’s going to stop the executive orders on any number of insane things? Who’s going to stop him when he openly defies the courts (as he’s doing right now)? Who’s going to stop the first strike on the DPRK, or Portugal, or whoever our petulant commander in chief decides to attack?

I don’t think y’all grasp how close we were to war with a nuclear power last year. Seriously. My friend got a call from insiders (people who were plugged in to the WH meetings) who told him that if he has anyone in Seoul, get them out NOW, as in today.

They’ve given a madman the keys to the Republic, and they will not stop him. Counting on one or two staffers to hide the keys now and then isn’t a strategy, it’s a cop out that’s doomed to fail eventually.

Sure, the Republic MIGHT survive. But it’d be just dumb luck.

We have given in to the worst of human impulses, and the stoutest republic in the world can crumble in an instant. We are barreling towards that precipice, with our foot on the gas, and the GOP won’t take it off.
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Who’s going to stop the first strike on the DPRK, or Portugal, or whoever our petulant commander in chief decides to attack?
If this is where you're going, fine.  You're just an insane person. 
 

Read the stories from Fear by Woodward. I’m not making up how close we were to war. I know its comforting to pretend it didn’t happen, but it did.
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8 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

If this is where you're going, fine.  You're just an insane person. 

 

Now, now.  There is at least a kernel of truth, usually something larger, in everything brisket posts, even his semi-deranged ones like this.  That's the trouble, it's nigh impossible to dismiss him out of hand.

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Now, now.  There is at least a kernel of truth, usually something larger, in everything brisket posts, even his semi-deranged ones like this.  That's the trouble, it's nigh impossible to dismiss him out of hand.

I related the story from my contact on Korea about how close we were to war.

Woodward’s book confirms it.

The odds of two independent sources making up the same story are quite low.

He’s an impetuous insane fuckstick who - on any given day - can stumblefuck our way into a catastrophic war. A responsible political party would rein him in. But we don’t have a responsible party in power.
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26 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Nope.  Can a GOP Senator win re-election without a good 75% of his base voting for him?  Because that's where it stands.  75% (more, actually) of GOP voters are full members of Cult 45.  Betray Trump, and they will not support you.  

We've already seen several of Trump's hand-picked candidates go down, either in primaries, or in general elections, including in states that should have been easy layups for the Trip candidate.  

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3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


I related the story from my contact on Korea about how close we were to war.

Woodward’s book confirms it.

The odds of two independent sources making up the same story are quite low.

He’s an impetuous insane fuckstick who - on any given day - can stumblefuck our way into a catastrophic war. A responsible political party would rein him in. But we don’t have a responsible party in power.

If Trump legitimately wanted to be impeached before the midterms, what could he possibly do to make that happen?

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20 hours ago, Yuk said:

So it would make sense for Trump to leave him in some legal jeopardy.  The actual pardon (the language) will be very interesting to look at as I'm sure it will be drafted by teams of attorneys from white house and his personal law firm(s).  And that pardon will also be a clear signal to anyone else that is being pressured to cooperate.

Side note: We need to amend the fuck out of the constitution to reign in presidential power.

Amend it to say what exactly?  We already have two checks on presidential power.  One of them has abandoned their post.  The Constitution is fine as long as Congress does its job.

You could have an amendment right now that made the President completely ornamental, and Congress would defer to whatever Trump wanted to do because they shit their britches when he riles up the rubes in their states and districts.

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19 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Amend it to say what exactly?  We already have two checks on presidential power.  One of them has abandoned their post.  The Constitution is fine as long as Congress does its job.

You could have an amendment right now that made the President completely ornamental, and Congress would defer to whatever Trump wanted to do because they shit their britches when he riles up the rubes in their states and districts.

Eliminate the pardon and commutation power or check it with another branch.  I know that this in itself a check, but it has been abused by Clinton and Trump (about to be used to obstruct justice).  The constitution also needs to explicitly state that the president is not immune to prosecution. There also needs to be a constitutional vehicle for severing criminal investigations of the executive branch from the executive branch. 

As it currently stands the president can murder every democratic senator in full view of Congress, serve out his term, and pardon himself before he leaves office.

These conversations should have been had with Nixon, but here we  are again.

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38 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If Trump legitimately wanted to be impeached before the midterms, what could he possibly do to make that happen?

My keyboard seems to have been malfunctioning all of these months.  So I'll put it out there again.  Phonetically.  And then in two languages.

ˈnəTHiNG

NOTHING.

NADA.

 

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Damn.  I knew that second trial was too good to be true.

Hopefully a lot of shit comes out in the plea agreement.

I doubt that it will.  The factual resume portion of it just has to support the conviction.  Any dirt will come behind the scenes.  And I think you probably would have been disappointed by the trial.

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3 hours ago, Yuk said:

Eliminate the pardon and commutation power or check it with another branch.  I know that this in itself a check, but it has been abused by Clinton and Trump (about to be used to obstruct justice).  The constitution also needs to explicitly state that the president is not immune to prosecution. There also needs to be a constitutional vehicle for severing criminal investigations of the executive branch from the executive branch. 

As it currently stands the president can murder every democratic senator in full view of Congress, serve out his term, and pardon himself before he leaves office.

These conversations should have been had with Nixon, but here we  are again.

This is why you don't make law in exigent circumstances.

Also pardons don't have interesting language.  They are all about the same:

 

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/file/993661/download

 

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/file/993586/download

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1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

I doubt that it will.  The factual resume portion of it just has to support the conviction.  Any dirt will come behind the scenes.  And I think you probably would have been disappointed by the trial.

Impossible for me to be disappointed by the trial.  

It’s pretty clear Trump and the GOP did not want this trial to happen because in a way, it was them on trial too, in the court of public opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Impossible for me to be disappointed by the trial.  

It’s pretty clear Trump and the GOP did not want this trial to happen because in a way, it was them on trial too, in the court of public opinion. 

I mean if you were expecting Trump's entire MO of Russian money-laundering to be exposed in the trial, I think you would have been disappointed.  It would probably have provided examples of how Russian money is laundered, similar to the way it has been laundered in transactions with Trump, but not involving Trump directly.

While Ellis couched his rulings in stern, anti-government language, the actual rulings were about what you'd expect from most judges as far as keeping unindicted third parties and extraneous information (no matter how juicy), out of the trial.  Most judges have a pretty keen interest in keeping trials pretty narrowly on the tracks that lead to conviction or acquittal.

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Impossible for me to be disappointed by the trial.  

It’s pretty clear Trump and the GOP did not want this trial to happen because in a way, it was them on trial too, in the court of public opinion. 

I think that a Manafort plea is definitely a net positive for the GOP and Trump. Keeps it off the front page in the weeks and months leading up to the election. I am assuming that Manafort is cooperating with OSC and is posturing for a pardon.  

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