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Manafort Trial

Grandioso

By Grandioso
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Hugo Stiglitz
Hugo Stiglitz
Chooky
Chooky

If Mueller completes this investigation leaving no doubt of criminal activity from this administration while at the same time paying for %80 of it with seized cash from Russian money laundering scheme

Ted Lange

Ted Lange 16144

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, woohorn said:

Worried about his family?

Wasn't Manafort the one who had Craigslist BBCs running trains on his wife?

Those Craig’s List ads aren’t going to post themselves.   Although considering where he is headed, he will have access to some fresh new meat for his wife. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46190

Posted
Posted

I don't see how anything other than keeping his mouth shut protects his family. 

Life in prison:  he's presumably either protected by or at least left alone by Russian mob agents. 

Flips to Mueller:  he earns either a pardon or a shorter sentence, and he and his family are all looking over their shoulders forever.

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33900

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't see how anything other than keeping his mouth shut protects his family. 

Life in prison:  he's presumably either protected by or at least left alone by Russian mob agents. 

Flips to Mueller:  he earns either a pardon or a shorter sentence, and he and his family are all looking over their shoulders forever.

fuck em

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pyrohornIII

pyrohornIII 4823

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Chooky said:

If Mueller completes this investigation leaving no doubt of criminal activity from this administration while at the same time paying for %80 of it with seized cash from Russian money laundering schemes, he should be anointed as King to a newly formed department called the Pimpingest Pimps Who Have Ever Pimped So Fucking Hard.

Quote

The forfeiture in this plea is both criminal and civil, meaning DOJ will be able to get Manafort’s $46 million even with a pardon.

So, what does this mean?  what can he do to forfeit the plea, like refuse to cooperate?   And if he doesn't forfeit, does he keep the 46 mil or part of it? 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46190

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

Fuck Paul, but I don't know enough about his fam to wish them ill.

I know what I've heard about how he treated his wife, and that's enough for me to have great empathy for her.  Maybe the stories aren't true but until I know otherwise, I'm Team Family.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89810

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I know what I've heard about how he treated his wife, and that's enough for me to have great empathy for her.  Maybe the stories aren't true but until I know otherwise, I'm Team Family.

I feel sorry for his wife, and his daughter is trying to change her surname so that he doesn't come up.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89810

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I don't see how anything other than keeping his mouth shut protects his family. 

Life in prison:  he's presumably either protected by or at least left alone by Russian mob agents. 

Flips to Mueller:  he earns either a pardon or a shorter sentence, and he and his family are all looking over their shoulders forever.

I've watched too many mob and intelligence-type of movies, so based on that:

  • Manafort knows as long as he is alive, he knows far too much for some people's liking.
  • None of his former business partners will ever trust him again, and there is no way he will be able to find a decent job.
  • There is no guarantee that Trump will pardon or protect him at all.
  • Even in ADX Florence, the SuperMax in Colorado, outsiders still manage to pull off hits using prisoners.
  • If pardoned, and miraculously doesn't go up on state charges, there's always a chance he will still be killed in a car "accident".
  • Even if Trump pardoned him, there's no guarantee a state won't throw him in prison for the rest of his life.

 

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Jograves

Jograves 357

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

An obvious, yet surprising admission: 

 

Any way to interpret this as anything other than “Manafort has personal knowledge of the President’s crimes”?

Do the networks call Dershowitz when they need a legal opinion or does he call each one and offer his opinion unsolicited? 

Seems like they could find other lawyers to offer their legal expertise but somehow it's always him. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105383

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Some comfort:

 

In my limited experience in the field, this is true.

The FBI wants to sit down with your client and have him spill the beans.  If the beans are viewed as 1) legitimately truthful, and 2) at all useful, then you get credit on your sentence for cooperation, which DEPENDS on you then repeating that information when they need you to before a grand jury, trial court, etc., with respect to some other defendant.

In multi-party cases (usually drug cases), defendants often refuse to spill the beans at all because it will get them and/or their family killed.  so, they just plead guilty, and pass up the additional sentence reduction.

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lemonlime

lemonlime 5503

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Jograves said:

Do the networks call Dershowitz when they need a legal opinion or does he call each one and offer his opinion unsolicited? 

Seems like they could find other lawyers to offer their legal expertise but somehow it's always him. 

Not many, if any, lawyers who didn't get their degrees at Cooley who are willing to make the batshit legal arguments Dershowitz and Giuliani make on behalf of Dotus.  

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8349

Posted
Posted (edited)

My understanding is that Russians only assassinate other Russians on foreign soil. Because Manafort is not Russian, what he might do to them is not regarded as treason, and since he is in America, that's a double no-no. And as for going after his wife and kids in America: a triple. (They probably don't understand why we won't one day have him taken to some dingy basement in northern Virginia. Under their rules, there he would take a quick pistol shot to the back of the head. And then his family would be banished to North Dakota forever and ever.)   

 

Even the KGB / GRU has a Code. 

Edited by MaybeACoordinator
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retread

retread 2951

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, lemonlime said:

Not many, if any, lawyers who didn't get their degrees at Cooley who are willing to make the batshit legal arguments Dershowitz and Giuliani make on behalf of Dotus.  

^ yep. Ratings. Pander to the Trumpkins, and make the rest mad with their defense of DOTUS.

Edited by retread
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13524

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Taking Hugo's review as essentially correct, I don't think the focused nature of the plea is a big deal.  Manafort is cooperating.  Most likely, that means he's cooperating on everything.  Not having Trump Tower meetings, etc. laid bare in court is of little consequence.

I can't believe that Mueller would agree to allowing Manafort to be uncooperative with certain subjects.   And if Manafort starts to be uncooperative, I assume the plea agreement is tossed.  Which is always an option for Manafort if he prefers to go back on trial.

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SuingToGetAMessageBoard?

SuingToGetAMessageBoard? 3861

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Please completely disregard the midterms, Mr Mueller.  Fear of influencing an election with real information the public needs to know is part of what got us into this mess.

No.  Men not following the law got us into this.  Mueller has a clear directive.  It seems he is following it without any hidden agenda.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
Just now, MaybeACoordinator said:

My understanding is that Russians only assassinate other Russians on foreign soil. Because Manafort is not Russian, what he might do to them is not regarded as treason, and since he is in America, that's a double no-no. And as for going after his wife and kids in America: a triple.

 

Even the KGB / GRU has a Code. 

All of the above is true. However, I think they view Manafort flipping as an egregious breach of contract and not so much treason.

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AUinHsv

AUinHsv 579

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The following info is truly amazing.  Seriously, step out of the fact that we are experiencing this in real-time, and imagine reading this about an administration in the history books.  The following people have either pleaded guilty to crimes, are presently cooperating witnesses, or both:

Manafort - campaign chair

Gates - campaign adviser

Cohen - the POTUS's long-time personal attorney

Flynn - National Security Adviser

Trump Org CFO - CFO of the President's personal business

National Enquirer - Media entity working in partnership with the POTUS

 

You're reading that in a history book -- what do you think of that administration?  Imagine if this was true about, say, Obama, or W, or Clinton.  We'd be referring to that admin as a criminal enterprise, not a political entity of any repute or authority.

The White House is presently being occupied and run by a criminal enterprise.  That matter has now been placed beyond debate.

Not going to argue the enterprise portion but looking back at history - Nixon's White House gives it a run for the money (no pun intended)

Mitchell - Attorney general - jail

Erlichman - chief counsel - jail

Haldeman - chief of staff - jail

Kleindeinst - Deputy Attorney General - jail (very little time)

McGruder - head of Committee to Re Elect President (CREEP - a great name) - jail

Kahlmback, Colson, Stans - all part of White House - jail

Nixon - unindicted co conspirator

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105383

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, AUinHsv said:

Not going to argue the enterprise portion but looking back at history - Nixon's White House gives it a run for the money (no pun intended)

Mitchell - Attorney general - jail

Erlichman - chief counsel - jail

Haldeman - chief of staff - jail

Kleindeinst - Deputy Attorney General - jail (very little time)

McGruder - head of Committee to Re Elect President (CREEP - a great name) - jail

Kahlmback, Colson, Stans - all part of White House - jail

Nixon - unindicted co conspirator

Oh, I don't disagree -- and understand, history generally judges the Nixon admin as a criminal enterprise.

And let's top it off....Mueller is just getting started.  Seriously, what's happened thus far are just appetizers and amuse-bouche.  

But, as always, I'm here to bring you down....none of it will matter, because GOP Senate and party over country.

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retread

retread 2951

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Time to keep an eye out for Russians falling from the roof and dying of natural causes. 

Seems like Putin's big concerns are political pressure from within that might topple him in the future. Externally, he has taken Crimea, hacked into the DNC/State Dept/WH/2016 elections, and more, and he basically says, "What are you gonna do about it?" So far, the answer is that we're not going to do anything of substance.

He probably thinks he's safe as long as he maintains power and order at home. If that involves some accidental defenestrations, so be it.

Are there potentially things that Mueller's investigation would reveal that would threaten Putin's power?

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13076

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, retread said:

Seems like Putin's big concerns are political pressure from within that might topple him in the future. Externally, he has taken Crimea, hacked into the DNC/State Dept/WH/2016 elections, and more, and he basically says, "What are you gonna do about it?" So far, the answer is that we're not going to do anything of substance.

He probably thinks he's safe as long as he maintains power and order at home. If that involves some accidental defenestrations, so be it.

Are there potentially things that Mueller's investigation would reveal that would threaten Putin's power?

Putin will have trouble maintaining power if the Oligarchs are unable to get their money out of Russia.

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Longhorn94

Longhorn94 2458

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Putin will have trouble maintaining power if the Oligarchs are unable to get their money out of Russia.

exactly. if Mueller is able to prove that Russia did this and a new Congress and President are in place, the sanctions could be so severe it will force Putin from power. The only person that should be more concerned about Manafort flipping than Trump is Putin. 

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hobbes2702

hobbes2702 13076

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

exactly. if Mueller is able to prove that Russia did this and a new Congress and President are in place, the sanctions could be so severe it will force Putin from power. The only person that should be more concerned about Manafort flipping than Trump is Putin. 

There is a reason he wants to Magnitsky Act overturned. The Oligarchs stay in line right now because of fear and wealth. Take their wealth, or at least their ability to spend, and they will be a lot less fearful of Vlad. He only controls the oligarchs while the money flows. It stops and they look for someone else to steal with.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

Putin will have trouble maintaining power if the Oligarchs are unable to get their money out of Russia.

Putin’s biggest threat isn’t the oligarchs, it’s the people of Russia.

All the oligarchs’ money is their money because Putin has allowed them to keep it.  

The oligarchs are like the GOP leaders to Trump.  No matter how much Putin fucks up, the oligarchs aren’t going to turn on him.  He owns them completely and he’s made damn sure of it over the years.

 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45745

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Putin’s biggest threat isn’t the oligarchs, it’s the people of Russia.

All the oligarchs’ money is their money because Putin has allowed them to keep it.  

The oligarchs are like the GOP leaders to Trump.  No matter how much Putin fucks up, the oligarchs aren’t going to turn on him.  He owns them completely and he’s made damn sure of it over the years.

 

This is something I've always wondered about.  Sure the "polls" show his approval rating or whatever at like 75%, but what do the Russian people really feel like?  Do they just accept that they have been conquered and are trying to live their lives?  Or is there a faction that is building against him and the Kremlin?  Maybe a stupid question, but I honestly have no idea.

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kevwun

kevwun 15925

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is something I've always wondered about.  Sure the "polls" show his approval rating or whatever at like 75%, but what do the Russian people really feel like?  Do they just accept that they have been conquered and are trying to live their lives?  Or is there a faction that is building against him and the Kremlin?  Maybe a stupid question, but I honestly have no idea.

The Russian people have never been free.  When they briefly threw the czar's boot off their throat they quickly let the communist party take it's place.  Putin might as well call himself czar, the people won't stop him.  If he is overthrown, they'll just let someone else do the same thing.

Edited by kevwun
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horncyclist

horncyclist 1391

Posted
Posted
This is something I've always wondered about.  Sure the "polls" show his approval rating or whatever at like 75%, but what do the Russian people really feel like?  Do they just accept that they have been conquered and are trying to live their lives?  Or is there a faction that is building against him and the Kremlin?  Maybe a stupid question, but I honestly have no idea.
Poll numbers stay high when you kill people that disapprove of you.
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is something I've always wondered about.  Sure the "polls" show his approval rating or whatever at like 75%, but what do the Russian people really feel like?  Do they just accept that they have been conquered and are trying to live their lives?  Or is there a faction that is building against him and the Kremlin?  Maybe a stupid question, but I honestly have no idea.

The way Putin prioritizes his information warfare operations are always geared towards his domestic audiences first, way before foreign audiences.  He does this to maintain control over his population.

Paraphrasing Russian expert Masha Gessen here, “The Russian people do not have political opinions, they don’t exist.  If you go on the streets of St Petersburg or Moscow and ask 10 people to give their opinion on a political topic, 9 out of 10 of them will tell you the exact same thing.  They will tell you exactly what they last heard on the television, which is State run.  In any totalitarian regime the views of the people must echo the State’s position coming from above.” 

It’s a difficult stranglehold to break free from. 

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SmokeyTheBear

SmokeyTheBear 5566

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is something I've always wondered about.  Sure the "polls" show his approval rating or whatever at like 75%, but what do the Russian people really feel like?  Do they just accept that they have been conquered and are trying to live their lives?  Or is there a faction that is building against him and the Kremlin?  Maybe a stupid question, but I honestly have no idea.

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/05/world/europe/russians-prefer-a-strong-leader-to-democracy.html

"Two-thirds of Russians see a strong leader, and not democratic government, as best for their country, and an overwhelming majority see a strong economy as more important than a good democracy, according to the results of a survey that were released Thursday by the Pew Research Center."

also

https://blog.oup.com/2012/05/russia-putin-elections-power/

This is all part of a well-established historical pattern. There are good reasons for Russians’ attachment to strong leaders. They fear both external invasion and internal subversion. A glance at their history reveals why. Their frontiers are very long and open, and over the centuries they have suffered invasion many times. In 1237 the Mongol onslaught brought devastation of towns and mass murder or enslavement of citizens. In Suzdal, for example, according to the Chronicle, “They plundered the Church of the Holy Virgin and burned down the prince’s court and burned down the Monastery of St Dmitrii, and the others they plundered. The old monks and nuns and priests and the blind, lame, hunchbacked and sick they killed, and the young monks and nuns and priests and priests’ wives and deacons and deacons’ wives, and their daughters and sons – all were led away into captivity.”

Edited by SmokeyTheBear
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bolverk

bolverk 29727

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, retread said:

Seems like Putin's big concerns are political pressure from within that might topple him in the future. Externally, he has taken Crimea, hacked into the DNC/State Dept/WH/2016 elections, and more, and he basically says, "What are you gonna do about it?" So far, the answer is that we're not going to do anything of substance.

He probably thinks he's safe as long as he maintains power and order at home. If that involves some accidental defenestrations, so be it.

Are there potentially things that Mueller's investigation would reveal that would threaten Putin's power?

Well, there have been some significant political protests in Russia during this last week:

Quote

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-45463883

Russian police have broken up protests across the country against a planned increase in the retirement age.

More than 800 protesters were detained and some beaten with batons, the rights monitoring group OVD-info says.

The rallies were called by the jailed opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who has capitalised on widespread anger against the reforms.

Concessions by President Putin, whose popularity has suffered as a result, have failed to stem the discontent.

The protests coincide with elections for 26 heads of Russia's 85 regions, including in Moscow, which are being held on Sunday.

OVD-Info says 839 people were detained in 19 cities. The largest number was in St Petersburg, where 354 were held, the group said.

Another 129 were detained in the city of Yekaterinburg in the Urals, while Moscow saw 36 arrests.

 

1

And it appears he's still not completely immune to public sentiment against him and his domestic policies:

Quote

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45342721

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has softened planned pension changes following angry protests and a slump in his approval rating.

He said the retirement age for women would be increased from 55 to 60 instead of to 63. But a five-year increase for men, to 65, would stay.

In a rare TV address, Mr Putin said the country's working-age population was shrinking, making change essential.

Unions have warned that many will not live long enough to claim a pension.

Russian men have a life expectancy of 66 while for women it is 77, the World Health Organization says.

The issue has seen support for Mr Putin fall to 64% from 80%, according to VTsIOM state pollster.

 

2

 

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