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Manafort Trial

Grandioso

By Grandioso
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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47239

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My gut tells me that Mueller isn't going to compromise the main charter of his investigation just to get dirt in front of the voters prior to the midterms.  He is likely focused on one thing -- links between Trump, his campaign, and Russian election interference.  The makeup of Congress is immaterial.

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Hugo Stiglitz
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If Mueller completes this investigation leaving no doubt of criminal activity from this administration while at the same time paying for %80 of it with seized cash from Russian money laundering scheme

Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that a Manafort plea is definitely a net positive for the GOP and Trump. Keeps it off the front page in the weeks and months leading up to the election. I am assuming that Manafort is cooperating with OSC and is posturing for a pardon.  

I don’t think Manafort is cooperating.  I think he’s straight up going to admit he committed the crimes he’s charged with, avoid the trial, and bank on a pardon before January 20, 2021

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23723

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12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My gut tells me that Mueller isn't going to compromise the main charter of his investigation just to get dirt in front of the voters prior to the midterms.  He is likely focused on one thing -- links between Trump, his campaign, and Russian election interference.  The makeup of Congress is immaterial.

Mueller knows that this is not true. 

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And once he's pardoned, he has to talk. No more Fifth.

Prior to that, before a Judge would accept a guilty plea, Manafort would have to admit under oath and for the public record what he did and provide a factual basis that substantiates the crimes that he admits committing.  So it has value for the Mueller investigation and further substantiates that this is in no way a witch hunt.  

It does pull it from the day to day news cycle, which is invaluable for those trying to dim the lights, but the public record detailing his crimes will be out in the open. 

Edited by triplehorn
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23723

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Just now, jimmyjazz said:

What are you saying?  You think he's being swayed by political machinations?

I think that the makeup of Congress is not immaterial, and I think that Mueller recognizes this political reality.  I am not saying that he is acting politically or swayed by election timelines.  There is no evidence of that (unless something changes in the next few weeks).  I just think that he isn't naive and understands the political dynamics around the end game here. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47239

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2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that the makeup of Congress is not immaterial, and I think that Mueller recognizes this political reality.  I am not saying that he is acting politically or swayed by election timelines.  There is no evidence of that (unless something changes in the next few weeks).  I just think that he isn't naive and understands the political dynamics around the end game here. 

Context.  I'm not of the opinion the makeup of Congress is immaterial, nor do I think Mueller believes that's true.  I was referring to the unlikelihood of him letting it drive his investigation.

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Js1

Js1 87217

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(((Obama Jews)))

Tymoshenko was the original “lock her up” candidate Manafort then used successfully in the US against Hillary. Luckily we aren’t an Eastern Europe shithole (successfully) run by a (competent) Putin puppet 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32087

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39 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

76 pages 

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4883087/Manafort-DC-Superseding-Criminal-Information.pdf

18 USC 371 CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD THE UNITED STATES 

Fascinating.  Cut all the money laundering and FARA shit down into one count.  No clue what the sentencing ramifications are.

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

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22 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

 

VVV There's always a tweet

^^^ I think that tweet got edited as I recall it originally mockingly using a reference to "what a great ROI" or something.  Careful what you wish for, you dip.  The profit from asset forfeiture in this and related investigations is just getting started.

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11402

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31 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I saw commentary to look for a sign that the Joint Defense Agreement (JDA) between Manafort's attys and Trump's attys has been terminated.  That could be a clear sign Manafort is pleading guilty with cooperation.

 

10 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

He flipped.

just got an AP notification that said just this. it's a cooperation plea deal.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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I read through the 76 pages and a few conclusions:

1.  The information is describing old school style active measures.  Hired agents of influence working through plausibly deniable NGOs and other world leaders to shape US policy and public perception.

2.  Manafort was a professional at this shit.  Reading his update memos and reports at the end showed whoever was paying him really got their money’s worth.

3. What isn’t in the report is also telling.  Nothing about Manafort’s place in Trump Tower or his work on the 2016 campaign.  Very little about the digital influence operations he helped fund/run in Ukraine.  There isn’t much connecting him to the Russian Federation in the report either which could be for his own protection if he is a cooperating witness.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

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1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m betting Manafort didn’t want to gamble on Trump’s loyalty to prevent him from dying in prison. 

Roger Stone must be shitting himself 

He knows they would try to get him in prison and pressure the family, he really can’t win or come out even 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32087

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4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I read through the 76 pages and a few conclusions:

1.  The information is describing old school style active measures.  Hired agents of influence working through plausibly deniable NGOs and other world leaders to shape US policy and public perception.

2.  Manafort was a professional at this shit.  Reading his update memos and reports at the end showed whoever was paying him really got their money’s worth.

3. What isn’t in the report is also telling.  Nothing about Manafort’s place in Trump Tower or his work on the 2016 campaign.  Very little about the digital influence operations he helped fund/run in Ukraine.  There isn’t much connecting him to the Russian Federation in the report either which could be for his own protection if he is a cooperating witness.

In that sense, it isn't much different from the prior indictments and that is why I say that the DC trial probably wouldn't have been all that interesting for you.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

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11 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

In that sense, it isn't much different from the prior indictments and that is why I say that the DC trial probably wouldn't have been all that interesting for you.

Sigh, the first trial was fascinating and that was about taxes and bank fraud.  Manafort clearly wanted to avoid the second trial at all costs.  Moreover, it was Manafort’s bizarre decision to separate the trials. Why? We will never know but looking at the evidence list for the second trial indicated a lot of shit was going to come out.  

I wasn’t looking for a smoking gun to emerge from the second trial but a shitload of context, background, and methods were certain to be made public in trial two and it would have driven Trump nuts.

That alone would have been satisfying.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47239

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Taking Hugo's review as essentially correct, I don't think the focused nature of the plea is a big deal.  Manafort is cooperating.  Most likely, that means he's cooperating on everything.  Not having Trump Tower meetings, etc. laid bare in court is of little consequence.

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