Manafort Trial

[jimmyjazz 45,896]

My gut tells me that Mueller isn't going to compromise the main charter of his investigation just to get dirt in front of the voters prior to the midterms.  He is likely focused on one thing -- links between Trump, his campaign, and Russian election interference.  The makeup of Congress is immaterial.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that a Manafort plea is definitely a net positive for the GOP and Trump. Keeps it off the front page in the weeks and months leading up to the election. I am assuming that Manafort is cooperating with OSC and is posturing for a pardon.  

I don’t think Manafort is cooperating.  I think he’s straight up going to admit he committed the crimes he’s charged with, avoid the trial, and bank on a pardon before January 20, 2021

[David Dennison 18,852]

7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I don’t think Manafort is cooperating.  I think he’s straight up going to admit he committed the crimes he’s charged with, avoid the trial, and bank on a pardon before January 20, 2021

And once he's pardoned, he has to talk. No more Fifth.

[Anastasis 23,466]

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My gut tells me that Mueller isn't going to compromise the main charter of his investigation just to get dirt in front of the voters prior to the midterms.  He is likely focused on one thing -- links between Trump, his campaign, and Russian election interference.  The makeup of Congress is immaterial.

Mueller knows that this is not true. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

And once he's pardoned, he has to talk. No more Fifth.

And once he’s pardoned, it’s a one way ticket to Moscow.

[Anastasis 23,466]

Just now, David Dennison said:

And once he's pardoned, he has to talk. No more Fifth.

:shakeshead:

[David Dennison 18,852]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

And once he’s pardoned, it’s a one way ticket to Moscow.

I doubt it.

[jimmyjazz 45,896]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Mueller knows that this is not true. 

What are you saying?  You think he's being swayed by political machinations?

[triplehorn 2,664]

11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And once he's pardoned, he has to talk. No more Fifth.

Prior to that, before a Judge would accept a guilty plea, Manafort would have to admit under oath and for the public record what he did and provide a factual basis that substantiates the crimes that he admits committing.  So it has value for the Mueller investigation and further substantiates that this is in no way a witch hunt.  

It does pull it from the day to day news cycle, which is invaluable for those trying to dim the lights, but the public record detailing his crimes will be out in the open. 

Edited September 14, 2018 by triplehorn

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I doubt it.

Why? Manafort would absolutely flee if given the opportunity.  He’s already experienced prison, he’s experiencing it right now.

[Anastasis 23,466]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

What are you saying?  You think he's being swayed by political machinations?

I think that the makeup of Congress is not immaterial, and I think that Mueller recognizes this political reality.  I am not saying that he is acting politically or swayed by election timelines.  There is no evidence of that (unless something changes in the next few weeks).  I just think that he isn't naive and understands the political dynamics around the end game here. 

[jimmyjazz 45,896]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that the makeup of Congress is not immaterial, and I think that Mueller recognizes this political reality.  I am not saying that he is acting politically or swayed by election timelines.  There is no evidence of that (unless something changes in the next few weeks).  I just think that he isn't naive and understands the political dynamics around the end game here. 

Context.  I'm not of the opinion the makeup of Congress is immaterial, nor do I think Mueller believes that's true.  I was referring to the unlikelihood of him letting it drive his investigation.

[David Dennison 18,852]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Why? Manafort would absolutely flee if given the opportunity.  He’s already experienced prison, he’s experiencing it right now.

I don't think he'll have the opportunity. I think any pardon from the president will open the door to state charges. I think he's stuck.

[Washpark 176]

manafort plead guilty deal per bloomberg

[WhatTheBuck 28,776]

14 minutes ago, Washpark said:

manafort plead guilty deal per bloomberg

What? You couldn't find a way to say that with an embedded tweet? (j/k)

But seriously, at least post a link.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-14/manafort-agrees-to-plead-guilty-to-avoid-new-washington-trial

[Biff Tannen 45,671]

womp womp

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

76 pages 

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4883087/Manafort-DC-Superseding-Criminal-Information.pdf

18 USC 371 CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD THE UNITED STATES 

[Js1 85,301]

(((Obama Jews)))

Tymoshenko was the original “lock her up” candidate Manafort then used successfully in the US against Hillary. Luckily we aren’t an Eastern Europe shithole (successfully) run by a (competent) Putin puppet 

[SimonBolivar 10,957]

 

 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

 

 

A tweet for every occasion 

[Gengs1 2,583]

3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

 

 

 

There it is, committing crimes, nah just s poor man getting hit by the man 

[Gengs1 2,583]

https://twitter.com/emptywheel/status/1040598856780734465

 

Edited September 14, 2018 by Gengs1

[TwiceHorn 31,444]

39 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

76 pages 

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/4883087/Manafort-DC-Superseding-Criminal-Information.pdf

18 USC 371 CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD THE UNITED STATES 

Fascinating.  Cut all the money laundering and FARA shit down into one count.  No clue what the sentencing ramifications are.

[triplehorn 2,664]

22 minutes ago, Gengs1 said:

 

VVV There's always a tweet

^^^ I think that tweet got edited as I recall it originally mockingly using a reference to "what a great ROI" or something.  Careful what you wish for, you dip.  The profit from asset forfeiture in this and related investigations is just getting started.

[triplehorn 2,664]

I saw commentary to look for a sign that the Joint Defense Agreement (JDA) between Manafort's attys and Trump's attys has been terminated.  That could be a clear sign Manafort is pleading guilty with cooperation.

[conVINCEd 21,469]

He flipped.

[Biff Tannen 45,671]

dotus twitter should be interesting today.  popcorn.gif

 

[hayden_horn 11,362]

 

31 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

I saw commentary to look for a sign that the Joint Defense Agreement (JDA) between Manafort's attys and Trump's attys has been terminated.  That could be a clear sign Manafort is pleading guilty with cooperation.

 

10 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

He flipped.

just got an AP notification that said just this. it's a cooperation plea deal.

[Mojo Hand 4,580]

Woah. Was not expecting that. 

[kevwun 15,772]

Oh, that stings I bet.

[David Dennison 18,852]

I wonder if this means we get to find out why the Republican Party platform language was changed at the national convention.

NO COLLUSION! NO RUSSIA!

[Gengs1 2,583]

Over or under 7 Hilary tweets because of this?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[Radical Larry 28,567]

He's getting his ostrich jacket back as part of the deal. 

[Biff Tannen 45,671]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

[kevwun 15,772]

This witch hunt was all so Mueller could get his grimy hands on that sweet M-shaped flower bed.

[Pig Bellmont 8,712]

 

[retread 2,951]

13 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

just got an AP notification that said just this. it's a cooperation plea deal.

[Chad Fuck 17,665]

[Pig Bellmont 8,712]

I’m betting Manafort didn’t want to gamble on Trump’s loyalty to prevent him from dying in prison. 

Roger Stone must be shitting himself 

[Biff Tannen 45,671]

I fully expect when the Stone indictment comes down that he pulls of his face and is a toon underneath like Who Framed Roger Rabbit.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

I read through the 76 pages and a few conclusions:

1.  The information is describing old school style active measures.  Hired agents of influence working through plausibly deniable NGOs and other world leaders to shape US policy and public perception.

2.  Manafort was a professional at this shit.  Reading his update memos and reports at the end showed whoever was paying him really got their money’s worth.

3. What isn’t in the report is also telling.  Nothing about Manafort’s place in Trump Tower or his work on the 2016 campaign.  Very little about the digital influence operations he helped fund/run in Ukraine.  There isn’t much connecting him to the Russian Federation in the report either which could be for his own protection if he is a cooperating witness.

Edited September 14, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Gengs1 2,583]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m betting Manafort didn’t want to gamble on Trump’s loyalty to prevent him from dying in prison. 

Roger Stone must be shitting himself 

He knows they would try to get him in prison and pressure the family, he really can’t win or come out even 

[TwiceHorn 31,444]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I read through the 76 pages and a few conclusions:

1.  The information is describing old school style active measures.  Hired agents of influence working through plausibly deniable NGOs and other world leaders to shape US policy and public perception.

2.  Manafort was a professional at this shit.  Reading his update memos and reports at the end showed whoever was paying him really got their money’s worth.

3. What isn’t in the report is also telling.  Nothing about Manafort’s place in Trump Tower or his work on the 2016 campaign.  Very little about the digital influence operations he helped fund/run in Ukraine.  There isn’t much connecting him to the Russian Federation in the report either which could be for his own protection if he is a cooperating witness.

In that sense, it isn't much different from the prior indictments and that is why I say that the DC trial probably wouldn't have been all that interesting for you.

[yaqdum 182]

26 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

 

 

just got an AP notification that said just this. it's a cooperation plea deal.

yeah, but didn't we do this tango once before?  i just don't see trusting that fudge-mustache goon.

[Js1 85,301]

 

[HenryJames 66,038]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

11 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

In that sense, it isn't much different from the prior indictments and that is why I say that the DC trial probably wouldn't have been all that interesting for you.

Sigh, the first trial was fascinating and that was about taxes and bank fraud.  Manafort clearly wanted to avoid the second trial at all costs.  Moreover, it was Manafort’s bizarre decision to separate the trials. Why? We will never know but looking at the evidence list for the second trial indicated a lot of shit was going to come out.  

I wasn’t looking for a smoking gun to emerge from the second trial but a shitload of context, background, and methods were certain to be made public in trial two and it would have driven Trump nuts.

That alone would have been satisfying.

Edited September 14, 2018 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Pig Bellmont 8,712]

 

[jimmyjazz 45,896]

Taking Hugo's review as essentially correct, I don't think the focused nature of the plea is a big deal.  Manafort is cooperating.  Most likely, that means he's cooperating on everything.  Not having Trump Tower meetings, etc. laid bare in court is of little consequence.