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2024 CFB Schedules - Coelenterates & Consequences


closetojumping

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Michigan shut Iowa out in the Big 10 CCG.  I think they'd have been fine in the regular season.

But your greater point stands, and with the massive conferences we're going to see some seriously imbalanced schedules.  Hell, we already are.  Just look at Florida and Missouri.  Same conference, wildly different difficulty of schedule.  The committee has the ability to address some of this nonsense with their selections, but I doubt they'll let SOS and imbalanced schedules get in the way of picking match ups with better ratings.

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6 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Michigan shut Iowa out in the Big 10 CCG.  I think they'd have been fine in the regular season.

But your greater point stands, and with the massive conferences we're going to see some seriously imbalanced schedules.  Hell, we already are.  Just look at Florida and Missouri.  Same conference, wildly different difficulty of schedule.  The committee has the ability to address some of this nonsense with their selections, but I doubt they'll let SOS and imbalanced schedules get in the way of picking match ups with better ratings.

I have no doubt that Michigan would have beaten Iowa during the regular season. My point was more about, well, do they beat PSU the following week? That was a tough game on the road in the first place. Just a what-if? given the nonsense of what they actually faced.

I am encouraged to hear that the SEC is likely going to a 9th game by 2026. I don't see how the ACC doesn't follow suit, especially since I'd think that inventory is worth money than the FCS games are. I think the biggest thing that probably gets the ACC off the button, if money can't, is watching the Big 12 get 3 teams in a couple of times while they're getting their ACC champion in and begging that the runner-up also get a consideration. Better be Clemson, FSU or Miami in that 2 spot at 11-2, I'm hoping.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I have no doubt that Michigan would have beaten Iowa during the regular season. My point was more about, well, do they beat PSU the following week? That was a tough game on the road in the first place. Just a what-if? given the nonsense of what they actually faced.

I am encouraged to hear that the SEC is likely going to a 9th game by 2026. I don't see how the ACC doesn't follow suit, especially since I'd think that inventory is worth money than the FCS games are. I think the biggest thing that probably gets the ACC off the button, if money can't, is watching the Big 12 get 3 teams in a couple of times while they're getting their ACC champion in and begging that the runner-up also get a consideration. Better be Clemson, FSU or Miami in that 2 spot at 11-2, I'm hoping.

I think you have underestimated the importance the FCS schedule plays as conveyed by the renown philanthropist, Jimbo Fisher:

“I don’t mind playing 8 or 9 conference games, I do believe this: we need to play a (FCS) game,” Fisher said. “I came from that league, (former Florida State head coach) Bobby Bowden came from that league. How do those schools make budget (w/out a big payday game vs. Power 5)?  I think you have to trickle the wealth down to those programs, so they can make budget.”

This kind of responsible leadership can lead to surprisingly strong fan support, as shown by the 12th man against UMass:

Crowd for Texas A&M against UMass was embarrassing

 

Edited by TheAuditor
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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Further, neither conference has an argument for a bubble playoff team over a high quality alternative from the Big 12 or Big 10 getting in instead. Fucking joke. 

I agree with your general premise, but let's not let give the Big 12 a pass here on scheduling. Every Big 12 team lost games against OU, Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon or UCLA and replaced them with games against the other leftovers and dogshit non-conference games. The only Big 12 nonconference games that even sniff the top tier of college football are Houston v. OU, Penn State v. West Virginia, Pitt v. West Virginia, Florida v. UCF, Iowa v. Iowa State, and Colorado v. Nebraska, Arkansas v. Okie State. And defining most of those as "top tier" is a stretch. 

I agree with you about the SEC and ACC 8 game schedule being bullshit, but it's going to be really interesting to see how this shakes out when the playoff teams are decided.

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It’s absolutely fine to flip the games from home to road next year in the SEC schedule but if we don’t go to permanent 9 games with 3 rivals by 2026 I think we should burn shit down. Or at least get a billboard near the conference office in Birmingham or Atlanta or wherever the hell the hayseeds and yokels congregate. 

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Notre Dame's schedule is really pathetic because you can't even give them credit for scheduling USC (not that they'll be any good this year). So, you have two teams in the top 20 of pre-season SP+, FSU and A&M (lol), Louisville at #28, then the next highest ranked team is Miami Ohio. You couldn't even schedule a few Maryland, West Virginia, Iowa State types? They've got 8 bona fide cupcakes and then 4 fringe top 25 teams, depending on your feelings about DJ Ukulelele 

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12 minutes ago, Jimmy Two Times said:

Notre Dame's schedule is really pathetic because you can't even give them credit for scheduling USC (not that they'll be any good this year). So, you have two teams in the top 20 of pre-season SP+, FSU and A&M (lol), Louisville at #28, then the next highest ranked team is Miami Ohio. You couldn't even schedule a few Maryland, West Virginia, Iowa State types? They've got 8 bona fide cupcakes and then 4 fringe top 25 teams, depending on your feelings about DJ Ukulelele 

They better fucking beat aggy. 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They better fucking beat aggy. 

Both teams probably boast better defenses than offenses (especially true for aggy). However, I think ND's defense will be better than aggy's offense, especially with a new offensive system and question marks at both QB and OL for the ags. While ND's offense is rather meh, I think Leonard and Love are decent enough to win that game. If it were in South Bend, it wouldn't even be a question in my mind. Here's to hoping Freeman doesn't fuck this one up like OSU last year.

If aggy does pull it out, the roller coaster is going to be mighty high up the initial lift early in the season.

Edited by MuellerHorn
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Of all those, Liberty and ND bother me the most. 

Liberty has been pulling those bullshit shenanigans for a while. Everyone hates them for it.

ND is definitely turning the page to the Liberty play book. If ND wins 9 games, their gonna be in the playoffs because they'll be in the top 15 for sure.

It's bullshit, but I'm pretty confident that's how the bullshit will play out.

IMO, if you're not in power conference, you should be completely excluded from consideration for the playoffs. No exceptions.

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24 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Of all those, Liberty and ND bother me the most. 

Liberty has been pulling those bullshit shenanigans for a while. Everyone hates them for it.

ND is definitely turning the page to the Liberty play book. If ND wins 9 games, their gonna be in the playoffs because they'll be in the top 15 for sure.

It's bullshit, but I'm pretty confident that's how the bullshit will play out.

IMO, if you're not in power conference, you should be completely excluded from consideration for the playoffs. No exceptions.

Isn't part of Liberty's issue that most real schools refuse to schedule them because they're a giant grift that turns well-meaning Evangelical kids' tuition payments into yachts for the Falwell failson and his corrupt buddies?

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1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Isn't part of Liberty's issue that most real schools refuse to schedule them because they're a giant grift that turns well-meaning Evangelical kids' tuition payments into yachts for the Falwell failson and his corrupt buddies?

Nah. There’s no upside for anyone to play them. They aren’t great or anything but it’s no upside if you win and it’s a lose able game with downside. 
I’m not saying that what you said doesn’t happen, I’m saying nobody gives a shit about that in a scheduling context. 

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1 hour ago, texifornia said:

Isn't part of Liberty's issue that most real schools refuse to schedule them because they're a giant grift that turns well-meaning Evangelical kids' tuition payments into yachts for the Falwell failson and his corrupt buddies?

 

28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Nah. There’s no upside for anyone to play them. They aren’t great or anything but it’s no upside if you win and it’s a lose able game with downside. 
I’m not saying that what you said doesn’t happen, I’m saying nobody gives a shit about that in a scheduling context. 

All of this is their bullshit and y’all are perpetuating it. They are choosing their course. This is what they want. If they wanted to play P4 teams, they’d be playing them. They’re not unique. 

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On the other side of the coin, there is Florida.  Their month of November is straight up diabolical - vs. Georgia (neutral), @ Texas, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, @ Florida State.  They also play Miami, aggy, UCF, and @ Tennessee.

I agree that with the emergence of super conferences we are going to see some seriously imbalanced schedules throughout a conference.  It will be super interesting to see how the committee handles a 10-2 team with a weaker schedule vs a 9-3 team with a tougher schedule and both teams are in the same conference.

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11 minutes ago, BigOrange1 said:

On the other side of the coin, there is Florida.  Their month of November is straight up diabolical - vs. Georgia (neutral), @ Texas, vs. LSU, vs. Ole Miss, @ Florida State.  They also play Miami, aggy, UCF, and @ Tennessee.

I agree that with the emergence of super conferences we are going to see some seriously imbalanced schedules throughout a conference.  It will be super interesting to see how the committee handles a 10-2 team with a weaker schedule vs a 9-3 team with a tougher schedule and both teams are in the same conference.

I don’t think they are going to but if Florida goes 8-4 they absolutely should be in the playoffs. 

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8 minutes ago, ousux said:
6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:
They better fucking beat aggy. 

They're breaking in a new QB, don't bet the house on domer beating gomer.

Riley Leonard is made of glass but he can play. And he's seen Elko's defense up close every week. We want this one early.

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12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t think they are going to but if Florida goes 8-4 they absolutely should be in the playoffs. 

Really?

So, if they lose to Georgia, Texas, Florida State and LSU, what in their resume would scream playoff to you? A home win against an Ole Miss team that is going to feast on a weak-ass schedule? A home win against an 8-4 or 7-5 aggy squad?

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14 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

Really?

So, if they lose to Georgia, Texas, Florida State and LSU, what in their resume would scream playoff to you? A home win against an Ole Miss team that is going to feast on a weak-ass schedule? A home win against an 8-4 or 7-5 aggy squad?

Those losses would all be to playoff teams (except maybe LSU- but that will be very borderline).  Their wins would be Miami, Texas A&M UCF, Tennessee, Kentucky and Old Miss. 

I will bet at the end of the year very very very few teams will have all losses be to playoff teams and also have 6 wins over P4 teams.  That's a fucking awesome resume whether or not dumb dumbs can get past 8-4 bro.  If they get pantsed in all 4 losses maybe not- but if they look half way competitive they ought to be in.  

BTW- they aren't going 8-4 because they aren't that good and that schedule is insane. but if they did they would be worthy.  

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One team to mention- Memphis is a more talented Liberty this year and they play Florida State. If they go 11-1 I hope they get in over Liberty with that schedule. We do not need to penalize teams for playing quality opponents. 

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, texifornia said:

Isn't part of Liberty's issue that most real schools refuse to schedule them because they're a giant grift that turns well-meaning Evangelical kids' tuition payments into yachts for the Falwell failson and his corrupt buddies?


I doubt this has anything to do with it. Plenty of schools will play them. This is by choice. 

Edited by Newy25
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Can't see a team with four losses in the regular season making the top-12 playoff. Final AP rankings last season (after bowls) had no teams with four losses in the top 15.  Only four teams in the last decade have been included in the post-bowl top 12 with four losses, including 2018 Texas at 9-4 (ranked No. 9 after the Georgia Sugar Bowl). Human judges are rarely impressed when there are that many losses.

https://maaw.info/GadgetsandGames/APFinalFootballRankings.htm#google_vignette

Florida making it is conceivable if the other teams on their schedule -- the likely wins listed by Wulaw -- overperform as a group. But that seems unlikely.

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I think Florida would have to go 9-3 to get in, and the losses would need to be of the quality variety. They're not putting an 8-4 team into the playoffs in year 1, particularly from the SEC. The optics on that would be horrendous. 

24 minutes ago, Newy25 said:

One team to mention- Memphis is a more talented Liberty this year and they play Florida State. If they go 11-1 I hope they get in over Liberty with that schedule. We do not need to penalize teams for playing quality opponents. 

Good point about Memphis. FSU's schedule is getting little notice, but it's something of a beast in its own right if you look at it. 

FSU goes: 

-8/24 (Week Zero) - vs. Ga Tech in Dublin - this is a bear of a trip for both teams and Norvell publicly complained about it at ACC Media Days. 

-9/2 (Monday of Week One) - vs Boston College in Tallahassee. This is the second week to open the season in which FSU plays a talented QB against their new defense. 

-9/14 - Memphis - one of the better G5 programs this season according to projections.

-9/21 - Cal - Cal projects as a bowl team, has a stud TB and will have an excellent defense. 

-9/28 - @SMU - SMU is a dark horse beloved in the media to win the ACC. They should be tough and solid at home. 

-10/5 - Clemson - I don't see Clemson competing for the national title, but they're going to be very good and gunning for FSU. 

-10/19 - @ Duke - Should be the first layup of the FSU season, although I am biased about Manny Diaz and Murphy and think Duke will be shit this year because of them.

-10/26 - @ Miami - Rivalry game and the second straight roadie. If Cristobal is as big of a dumbass as I think he is, FSU should win here. If somehow that brickhead has Miami rolling with all of their talent, this could be a crazy game.

-11/2 - North Carolina - UNC has talent, but FSU has more. The transfers should have gelled by now and FSU should be favored to win. The wildcard here is if Mack Brown goes into labor on the field during the game. That kind of distraction could really fire up the tarheels.

-11/9 - @ Notre Dame - At this point, FSU has faced a legitimately brutal schedule with no true patsies. It's another opportunity to face off against a real dumbass at the head coaching position. Notre Dame is playing the cupcake schedule already alluded to, and this should be a key game they need to bolster their resume. I expect ND to win convincingly but, let's face it, it's August and who the fuck knows what will happen this season?

-11/23 - Charleston Southern - This season's only true gimme for FSU.

-11/30 - Florida - Another team that will beaten up by a brutal schedule, the rival gators come to town for what might be their battle for bowl eligibility. 

FSU faces that schedule with a true mediocrity at QB in DJ Ungaleieleieleilalluelei. That initial 6 game stretch includes just one bye week. Grim.

FSU and USC are two teams with schedules in the range of difficulty of Florida and no one is giving either any credit for it. It's interesting in terms overall media bias and talking points at this stage. They're not going to give Riley any quarter and no one is giving the whiners at FSU much credit or thought right now.

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Florida State’s schedule reminds me a lot of Duke’s schedule last year. Starting off with conference games, playing Notre Dame and generally not having any real breaks in the schedule. It’s not that any one game is impossible it’s the lack of breaks and little room to deal with a key injury. Memphis is going to be a tougher out than most people realize. They have  a stacked offense. 

I actually think Virginia Tech or NC State could surprise and challenge for that conference as well. 

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1 minute ago, Newy25 said:

I actually think Virginia Tech or NC State could surprise and challenge for that conference as well. 

I don't know how surprising that would be. Bill Connolly has been beating the drum that at least one of them will be good. 

Then again State will probably do what they always do under Doeren and be a very solid 8-4 or 9-3 kind of squad that beats up UNC to end the season. I'm excited to see what Grayson McCall can do in a P4 conference after Brennan Armstrong was pretty much a bust last year, and KC Concepcion is really fun to watch.

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I like NC State to beat Tennessee. I think Iamaleava is severely overrated heading into this season, as are the Tenn WRs. 

Va Tech absolutely has the schedule to win the conference or play for it in the championship. They also have a QB to boot. Should be interesting watching them. They don't face an FCS opponent, but they face a really weak non-con with: @ Vandy, Marshall, @ Old Dominion, Rutgers. They miss FSU, SMU, NC State, UNC, and Louisville with their only real underdog games looking like @ Miami and Clemson. 

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18 hours ago, MuellerHorn said:

Both teams probably boast better defenses than offenses (especially true for aggy). However, I think ND's defense will be better than aggy's offense, especially with a new offensive system and question marks at both QB and OL for the ags. While ND's offense is rather meh, I think Leonard and Love are decent enough to win that game. If it were in South Bend, it wouldn't even be a question in my mind. Here's to hoping Freeman doesn't fuck this one up like OSU last year.

If aggy does pull it out, the roller coaster is going to be mighty high up the initial lift early in the season.

STOOPID SIP!! THE ONLY QUESTIN THE MIGHTY TEXUM BULLDOGS HAVE ABIUT QB IS HOW MANY SINGLE SEASON NCAA RECORDS IS WIGGY GOING TO BREAK ON HIS WAY TO A HIGHSMEN AND A SHIP AND THE NUMBER 1 OVERALL PIC IN THE DRAFT! WHHOOOOOPPPPPP!!!!

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Really really hoping App State saves us from another year of Liberty’s bullshit, it’s insane they got rewarded for that bush league schedule last year and they seem intent on doing that till someone trips them up or the CFB committee tells them to GTFO here with it.

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18 hours ago, texifornia said:

Isn't part of Liberty's issue that most real schools refuse to schedule them because they're a giant grift that turns well-meaning Evangelical kids' tuition payments into yachts for the Falwell failson and his corrupt buddies?

It’s like you’ve never heard of Baylor

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The big argument for the SEC to go to a nine game schedule is that, if they (we? Gotta get used to this) did, the networks might close the revenue gap the SEC has with the B1G. 
 
Argument against- the middling and less SEC programs are afraid to surrender a gimme win. 
 
Oh, well. I can’t imagine any eight game schedule format where Texas plays OU, TAMU and Arkansas every year. It’s understood that the RRS is the game we’re not giving up. The league wants us to play the Ags, and the Hogs are dying for regular games against Texas. If they refuse to go to nine games, we’ll just have to get by without playing g the Ags or Hogs. 

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23 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I agree with your general premise, but let's not let give the Big 12 a pass here on scheduling. Every Big 12 team lost games against OU, Texas, USC, Washington, Oregon or UCLA and replaced them with games against the other leftovers and dogshit non-conference games. The only Big 12 nonconference games that even sniff the top tier of college football are Houston v. OU, Penn State v. West Virginia, Pitt v. West Virginia, Florida v. UCF, Iowa v. Iowa State, and Colorado v. Nebraska, Arkansas v. Okie State. And defining most of those as "top tier" is a stretch. 

I agree with you about the SEC and ACC 8 game schedule being bullshit, but it's going to be really interesting to see how this shakes out when the playoff teams are decided.

I look at the non-conf games you list and would stop on most of them if I was flipping channels as they are generally good regional matchups.  Used to be the bread and butter of CFB. 

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17 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Bruins with the #3 hardest schedule.  A little comeuppance after a couple of softer years (blame Michigan for cancelling a home and home). 

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I burned a whole tank of gas yesterday driving to East Louisiana so I listen to a lot of Channel 84.  I think it was Hest and E.J. discussing Liberty's schedule this coming season.  Once again they have the easiest schedule and playing a single P4 team.  They thought that after last year, they will probably take this in to consideration.  I sure hope so. 

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Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, Jimmy Two Times said:

They've got 8 bona fide cupcakes and then 4 fringe top 25 teams, depending on your feelings about DJ Ukulelele 

Listen, you daft sonofabitch: his rendition of "Tiptoe through the Tulips" is the best I have ever heard!

Edited by Tex Pete
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44 minutes ago, markstanco said:

I burned a whole tank of gas yesterday driving to East Louisiana so I listened to a lot of Channel 84.  I think it was Hester and E.J. discussing Liberty's schedule this coming season.  Once again they have the easiest schedule and not playing a single P4 team.  They thought that after last year, they will probably take this in to consideration.  I sure hope so. 

 

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7 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I think Florida would have to go 9-3 to get in, and the losses would need to be of the quality variety. They're not putting an 8-4 team into the playoffs in year 1, particularly from the SEC. The optics on that would be horrendous. 

Good point about Memphis. FSU's schedule is getting little notice, but it's something of a beast in its own right if you look at it. 

FSU goes: 

-8/24 (Week Zero) - vs. Ga Tech in Dublin - this is a bear of a trip for both teams and Norvell publicly complained about it at ACC Media Days. 

-9/2 (Monday of Week One) - vs Boston College in Tallahassee. This is the second week to open the season in which FSU plays a talented QB against their new defense. 

-9/14 - Memphis - one of the better G5 programs this season according to projections.

-9/21 - Cal - Cal projects as a bowl team, has a stud TB and will have an excellent defense. 

-9/28 - @SMU - SMU is a dark horse beloved in the media to win the ACC. They should be tough and solid at home. 

-10/5 - Clemson - I don't see Clemson competing for the national title, but they're going to be very good and gunning for FSU. 

-10/19 - @ Duke - Should be the first layup of the FSU season, although I am biased about Manny Diaz and Murphy and think Duke will be shit this year because of them.

-10/26 - @ Miami - Rivalry game and the second straight roadie. If Cristobal is as big of a dumbass as I think he is, FSU should win here. If somehow that brickhead has Miami rolling with all of their talent, this could be a crazy game.

-11/2 - North Carolina - UNC has talent, but FSU has more. The transfers should have gelled by now and FSU should be favored to win. The wildcard here is if Mack Brown goes into labor on the field during the game. That kind of distraction could really fire up the tarheels.

-11/9 - @ Notre Dame - At this point, FSU has faced a legitimately brutal schedule with no true patsies. It's another opportunity to face off against a real dumbass at the head coaching position. Notre Dame is playing the cupcake schedule already alluded to, and this should be a key game they need to bolster their resume. I expect ND to win convincingly but, let's face it, it's August and who the fuck knows what will happen this season?

-11/23 - Charleston Southern - This season's only true gimme for FSU.

-11/30 - Florida - Another team that will beaten up by a brutal schedule, the rival gators come to town for what might be their battle for bowl eligibility. 

FSU faces that schedule with a true mediocrity at QB in DJ Ungaleieleieleilalluelei. That initial 6 game stretch includes just one bye week. Grim.

FSU and USC are two teams with schedules in the range of difficulty of Florida and no one is giving either any credit for it. It's interesting in terms overall media bias and talking points at this stage. They're not going to give Riley any quarter and no one is giving the whiners at FSU much credit or thought right now.

Agreed on Florida but I said should not would.  The sooner the 9-3 or 8-4 bandaid is ripped off the better for us imo. 

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On 8/1/2024 at 4:55 PM, texifornia said:

Isn't part of Liberty's issue that most real schools refuse to schedule them because they're a giant grift that turns well-meaning Evangelical kids' tuition payments into yachts for the Falwell failson and his corrupt buddies?

20 year old Cuban cabana boys don't come cheap.   

 

And it's not just "Evangelical kids", they suck up more V.A. money than anybody else. 

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Both teams probably boast better defenses than offenses (especially true for aggy). However, I think ND's defense will be better than aggy's offense, especially with a new offensive system and question marks at both QB and OL for the ags. While ND's offense is rather meh, I think Leonard and Love are decent enough to win that game. If it were in South Bend, it wouldn't even be a question in my mind. Here's to hoping Freeman doesn't fuck this one up like OSU last year.
If aggy does pull it out, the roller coaster is going to be mighty high up the initial lift early in the season.

Yes - Golden Domers are our hope to start the aggy roller coaster in week one. I don’t care what ND does the rest of the season, as long as the beat aggy week 1 in Pyle!

Hook’em!!!
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CBS SPORTS:  "SEC strength of schedule rankings 2024: Florida faces brutal slate, Texas has clear path to playoff"

Here's how each SEC school's respective strength of schedule stacked up, ranked from most difficult to least. 

Screenshot_20240803-063005_kindlephoto-3722685.thumb.png.ccf18214beec97efd32a91ff4e3c5daa.png

Screenshot_20240803-063142_kindlephoto-3818887.thumb.png.71277c5a98d344f5b7bca2bc6f03478b.png

Screenshot_20240803-063233_kindlephoto-3870727.thumb.png.c46466aadb00f94d289ec190fb66d55a.png

Screenshot_20240803-063423_kindlephoto-3978518.thumb.png.422fbd74e1798618ac022fa71b5853a7.png

Screenshot_20240803-063507_kindlephoto-4022322.thumb.png.ae5603bba0711dfaf514551e62d39bbd.png

Screenshot_20240803-063559_kindlephoto-4074400.thumb.png.5a781a9eb9de1528fd85157005454ce6.png

Screenshot_20240803-063740_kindlephoto-4176718.thumb.png.9a2082ab6d3540fea274294e606758c8.png

Screenshot_20240803-064004_kindlephoto-4320385.thumb.png.168db27b656b94b334bb9efb139183a5.png

 

Screenshot_20240803-064119_kindlephoto-4395477.png.22571ebd11cf9e056bf8b2cf77359bbd.png

 

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/sec-strength-of-schedule-rankings-2024-florida-faces-brutal-slate-texas-has-clear-path-to-playoff/

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