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Pre-Season AP Poll

TrashMaster G

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 17388

Posted
Posted (edited)

The writers weigh in today: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll

 

  1. Georgia (46)
  2. Ohio State (15)
  3. Oregon (1)
  4. Texas
  5. Alabama
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Penn State
  9. Michigan
  10. Florida State
  11. Missouri
  12. Utah
  13. LSU
  14. Clemson
  15. Tennessee
  16. Oklahoma
  17. Oklahoma State
  18. Kansas State
  19. Miami
  20. Texas A&M
  21. Arizona
  22. Kansas
  23. USC
  24. NC State
  25. Iowa

 

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BigOrange1

BigOrange1 6422

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

playing that out, the college football playoff would be:

1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Florida State, 4. Utah

5. Oregon vs. 12. Boise State

6. Texas vs. Michigan

7. Alabama vs. Penn State

8. Ole Miss vs. Notre Dame

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62246

Posted
Posted

The pollsters have particularly lazy and uncreative this year. I'm guessing the realignment has created some level of uncertainty, so voters just gravitate towards big brands. Unless you're Washington, then you can fuck off. 

There are several schools that should absolutely be ranked and aren't:

Auburn - everyone hates the QB and remembers the NMSU loss to a level that merits them hardly getting any votes? They had one of the worst WR corps in the country last year. Freeze has recruited well and stocked well from the portal. Irrespective of his issues, the guy can fucking coach. This is year 2. They have Bama and Georgia, but the schedule is otherwise either favorable or manageable depending upon your view of the SEC as a conference this year. ULM, Vandy, Alabama A&M, New Mexico - that's 4 automatic wins (NMSU jokes aside). They can and should beat Cal, Arkansas and ATM at home. Between OU, @Mizzou, @ Kentucky, you don't have to squint too hard to get to 8-4/9-3, which would either be well inside the top 25.

Memphis - they return basically their entire offense and 6 of their starting front 7. They catch FSU at a good time and otherwise should have 10 or 11 wins. They could be 12-0 with the right breaks.

Boise State - Outside of a road game to Oregon, their schedule is favorable, they have a ton back, and the new regime allegedly knows what they're doing well enough for everyone to be excited.

Virginia Tech - This one actually baffles me. They have a standout QB, a soft non-con, avoid FSU, UNC, SMU, ND, NC State, and Louisville in conference. They return 20 of 22 starters on the two deep. That's a team that should be solidly in anyone's top 25. 

Other thoughts:

-Georgia Tech returns a bunch from a solid team and they don't even get a single vote. 

-Utah basically has like 2 games on their schedule that present a challenge. They're an old team that is tough and talented. They should be well inside the top 10.

-FSU is a lazy, lazy pick. They lost a ton of talent, the QB has been a fucking joke his whole career, and their schedule is brutal. I don't expect them to be ranked by season's end.

-ATM is an even lazier pick. They lost way more talent to the portal than they gained, they're razor thin with depth across the board and they have a ton of unknowns with a new regime. Everyone is giving those idiots the benefit of the doubt with a turnaround for no actual, discernible reason. Because of the 247 transfer rankings? Liucci blowing harder than ever? That The Elk is talking tough about cultural turnaround? They're staring down the barrel of 6-6.

-Everything I just said about ATM outside of regime change is applicable to Miami and USC, except both play tougher schedules than ATM. Terrible voting. 

 

 

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The pollsters have particularly lazy and uncreative this year. I'm guessing the realignment has created some level of uncertainty, so voters just gravitate towards big brands. Unless you're Washington, then you can fuck off. 

There are several schools that should absolutely be ranked and aren't:

Auburn - everyone hates the QB and remembers the NMSU loss to a level that merits them hardly getting any votes? They had one of the worst WR corps in the country last year. Freeze has recruited well and stocked well from the portal. Irrespective of his issues, the guy can fucking coach. This is year 2. They have Bama and Georgia, but the schedule is otherwise either favorable or manageable depending upon your view of the SEC as a conference this year. ULM, Vandy, Alabama A&M, New Mexico - that's 4 automatic wins (NMSU jokes aside). They can and should beat Cal, Arkansas and ATM at home. Between OU, @Mizzou, @ Kentucky, you don't have to squint too hard to get to 8-4/9-3, which would either be well inside the top 25.

Memphis - they return basically their entire offense and 6 of their starting front 7. They catch FSU at a good time and otherwise should have 10 or 11 wins. They could be 12-0 with the right breaks.

Boise State - Outside of a road game to Oregon, their schedule is favorable, they have a ton back, and the new regime allegedly knows what they're doing well enough for everyone to be excited.

Virginia Tech - This one actually baffles me. They have a standout QB, a soft non-con, avoid FSU, UNC, SMU, ND, NC State, and Louisville in conference. They return 20 of 22 starters on the two deep. That's a team that should be solidly in anyone's top 25. 

Other thoughts:

-Georgia Tech returns a bunch from a solid team and they don't even get a single vote. 

-Utah basically has like 2 games on their schedule that present a challenge. They're an old team that is tough and talented. They should be well inside the top 10.

-FSU is a lazy, lazy pick. They lost a ton of talent, the QB has been a fucking joke his whole career, and their schedule is brutal. I don't expect them to be ranked by season's end.

-ATM is an even lazier pick. They lost way more talent to the portal than they gained, they're razor thin with depth across the board and they have a ton of unknowns with a new regime. Everyone is giving those idiots the benefit of the doubt with a turnaround for no actual, discernible reason. Because of the 247 transfer rankings? Liucci blowing harder than ever? That The Elk is talking tough about cultural turnaround? They're staring down the barrel of 6-6.

-Everything I just said about ATM outside of regime change is applicable to Miami and USC, except both play tougher schedules than ATM. Terrible voting. 

 

 

I’m not sure favorability of schedule is the ideal way to rank teams, though. Of course, a lot of times voters do seem to rely overly, imo, on record, unless someone is parsing who gets a playoff spot or the like. 

That said, I really like your view on A&M as a potential 6-6, especially entering the Texas game at 6-5, so I’m going to assume that everything else is aces, as well. 

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 18998

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Explain Oregon to me. Also please explain why Gabriel is the betting favorite to win the Heisman. 

It's pretty obvious. They were the #1 team in FEI last year with the #1 offense and #11 defense. They only had 2 guys drafted in the top 100 and replaced their biggest loss, Nix, with Gabriel who isn't that much of a downgrade.  So they didn't lose nearly as much talent as most of the other top teams last year, like UT, MIch, or UW, and they also brought in some big time transfers like Jamaree Caldwell and Jabbar Muhammad. On top of that, their schedule is pretty soft, only playing 2 top 25 teams all season. 

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hornbri

hornbri 1375

Posted
Posted

Florida might have the toughest pre-season schedule of all time. They play preseason - 1, 4, 6, 10, 13, 15, 19, and 20.

3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That's crazy. So it's basically the first time ever because the last time was when the last batch of WWII enrollees left Army. 

Yeah but they lost 20 starters and their HC, life of the transfer portal. 

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BachelorTrek

BachelorTrek 2937

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

Of course Oregon has to one up us…

What the HELL is this BS?

WHO THE FUCK did the Quacks beat on the road last year?

WHERE is the big road win against a Top-10 opponent?

Oh, that's right! There AIN'T ANY!

04161adb-706a-443a-8d1d-743d668744e4_text.gif.9c0dda7e90a18f319d83f87e3b124f5c.gif

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JBJ

JBJ 3649

Posted
Posted

I am just gonna dump from my model here.

Full disclosure: there are always random misfits in the preseason.  Also, transfers out are easy to quantify, but I have no idea what I'm doing with transfers in.  Preseason ranking isn't really my focus, these mostly help my model not be completely random the first 5 weeks, take this as a list of potentially good teams and some are more reliable than others.

image.png.c789fccbfe5ad7ace812ddbb16e6ab27.png

Top resumes are listed as if teams end up undefeated.  Next column is the same rank but with 1-loss resumes.  It's basically two measures of SoS right now.  Kentucky is the hardest schedule to go undefeated with, but Florida/Michigan/Sparty are tough to even end with 1-loss.

image.png.c0029e8c8f35859ecbb3df34c7848152.png

If you are betting, my model likes Mizzou against Vegas to make CCG.

Ole Miss is probably underrated due to transfers.  Texas might fall into that category, also, but the model liked what we returned so it's less so.

 

For Texas:

image.png.6b0a33d0572c7a5101b88ed1d188125b.png

image.png.c11364ddbf373449bfa3a891ca54ce93.png

Simple is the simple ranking.  There is no complex ranking in the preseason, so just accept it for now.  Reliability is what it means.  For now, it's how predictable you are based on last year and roster churn.  Good offenses are not usually low on this metric because it easier to predict teams that are unable to score (Iowa is #1).  This is also why the top 25 above favors defense.

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DanTheHorn

DanTheHorn 4901

Posted
Posted

Ohio State likes its' chances

Here are the preseason AP poll rankings for each eventual national champion over the last 25 years ¹ ² ³:
  • 1999: Florida State - No. 1
  • 2000: Oklahoma - No. 15
  • 2001: Miami - No. 2
  • 2002: Ohio State - No. 4
  • 2003: LSU - No. 2
  • 2004: USC - No. 2
  • 2005: Texas - No. 2
  • 2006: Florida - No. 4
  • 2007: LSU - No. 15
  • 2008: Florida - No. 2
  • 2009: Alabama - No. 2
  • 2010: Auburn - No. 23
  • 2011: LSU - No. 2
  • 2012: Alabama - No. 1
  • 2013: Florida State - No. 3
  • 2014: Ohio State - No. 7
  • 2015: Alabama - No. 2
  • 2016: Clemson - No. 2
  • 2017: Alabama - No. 1
  • 2018: Clemson - No. 2
  • 2019: LSU - No. 8
  • 2020: Alabama - No. 2
  • 2021: Georgia - No. 2
  • 2022: Georgia - No. 2
  • 2023: Michigan - No. 9
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48977

Posted
Posted
On 8/12/2024 at 1:57 PM, Machinator said:

For just the AP Poll:

 

DeBoer built last year's roster to maximize the final year with Penix. I really doubt DeBoer expected to return this year at Washington based on the terrible roster he left behind.

If Bama had not hired DeBoer, I fully expected him to take another job this season -- some expected him to end up at Michigan.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45495

Posted
Posted
56 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

Ohio State likes its' chances

Here are the preseason AP poll rankings for each eventual national champion over the last 25 years ¹ ² ³:
  • 1999: Florida State - No. 1
  • 2000: Oklahoma - No. 15
  • 2001: Miami - No. 2
  • 2002: Ohio State - No. 4
  • 2003: LSU - No. 2
  • 2004: USC - No. 2
  • 2005: Texas - No. 2
  • 2006: Florida - No. 4
  • 2007: LSU - No. 15
  • 2008: Florida - No. 2
  • 2009: Alabama - No. 2
  • 2010: Auburn - No. 23
  • 2011: LSU - No. 2
  • 2012: Alabama - No. 1
  • 2013: Florida State - No. 3
  • 2014: Ohio State - No. 7
  • 2015: Alabama - No. 2
  • 2016: Clemson - No. 2
  • 2017: Alabama - No. 1
  • 2018: Clemson - No. 2
  • 2019: LSU - No. 8
  • 2020: Alabama - No. 2
  • 2021: Georgia - No. 2
  • 2022: Georgia - No. 2
  • 2023: Michigan - No. 9

Fun, but mostly irrelevant with a 12 team playoff now.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 48977

Posted
Posted

So ctj listed some teams left out that should not be overlooked:  Auburn, Memphis, Boise State, Virginia Tech and maybe even Georgia Tech.

I'm wondering what other teams might also deserve to be in the Top 25 that were left out?

Smu?  W Va?  Louisville?   Rutgers?  UNC?  Iowa St?   CORN?   UCF?   Whisky?   Tcu?   Kentucky?   Gators?

image.thumb.png.16e40091769329708077d947ae5c0550.png

 

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satyanash

satyanash 14281

Posted
Posted
On 8/21/2024 at 7:55 PM, Funk Doctor Spock said:

Oregon ahead of us is an egregious mistake. They haven't won shit. Not a conference title under Lanning. It's one spot, but they should still be behind us. You know, a team that actually made the playoffs and has a returning QB. 

Sportswriters are stubborn.

 

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satyanash

satyanash 14281

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

McMurphy doesn't even have Texas making the playoffs as of yesterday. He's got 5 Big10 teams and 3 SEC teams, but no Texas.

Lol you weren't kidding. He has us in the Cheez-It Bowl against Nebraska

Capture.thumb.PNG.cf93eadc0b2985d0ce427efd2069c48c.PNG

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