Game Week Thread Week 2, 2024: Texas at Michigan

[Fico 1778]

4 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

This Michigan D has better athletes and better position coaching than 2022 Alabama. It will by far be the hardest D Ewers and Sark have had to read. 

Am I taking crazy pills? Better athletes than 2022 Alabama?

You guys are fucking cooking this morning.

If I’m Michigan I maintain a high shell and run a variety of zone pressures which have historically given our OL trouble and try to force Texas to put together drives to be you. We won’t be able to run on their interior and with zone pressure all eyes will be in the backfield to attack horizontal plays, etc. Helm, Niblack, Wingo will all be useful due to their size/speed combos this weekend if that is the way Michigan wants to roll. 
 

if Quinn and the OL are adequate with identifying and picking up the multiple pressure looks, I just don’t see how we don’t move the ball consistently.

[MrX 727]

By my count, 11 guys from 2022 Bama’s defense got drafted to date, including 3 first rounders. Hard to say this Michigan team is gonna top that. 

[kwood4408 756]

This thread is on crack and no I am not new to Surly.

[Dahobbs 17522]

1 minute ago, Fico said:

Umm didn’t Ewers light them up prior to get pile driven into the ground and going out of the game?

I’m not going going into the game thinking we will put up 40, but what exactly about this years Michigan defense is warranting the title of best Ewers will have ever played.

They have a first round CB and two very good DTs. What about the other 8 guys? What about their linebackers and safeties in space?

We aren’t going to line up and run it down there throat anyway. We are going to spread them out, make them run horizontal and then try to hit them over the top, or just let our guys work in space.

The challenge on offense will be if we can identify and protect their multiple blitz schemes. If we can do that most of the time, we will move the ball.

(1) I'm not saying we can't be successful. 

(2) They got a very similar DT combo to what we had last year + the best CB in football. Those are all round 1 or early round 2 guys. 

(3) Both their edge rushers will get drafted

(4) Their MLB is a very good transfer from Maryland who can also rush the passer. 

(5) They got two experienced safeties in their system along with a transfer who started for Tennessee.

There are a lot of dudes who have spent time in their complicated system. They have a lot of talent. They likely will not be as good as last year and yet will likely still be the best defense Ewers has faced so far. This really shouldn't be a controversial statement.  Frankly, it isn't all that close outside of 2022 Alabama.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18547]

6 minutes ago, MrX said:

By my count, 11 guys from 2022 Bama’s defense got drafted to date, including 3 first rounders. Hard to say this Michigan team is gonna top that. 

Yeah, that 2022 Bama team had Will Anderson (#3 overall pick), Dallas Turner (#17), Terrian Arnold (#24), Koolaid McKinstry (#41), Chris Braswell (#57), Jordan Battle (#95), and Byron Young (#70). 

[Dbeasy 15041]

The line movement in this game has also been interesting. Started at 3.5 and shot up immediately to 7.5. That much movement so fast doesn’t happen a lot. On one hand that implies the smart money believes Texas wins, and potentially wins big. But there’s also the counter argument that dumb money got too enamored with week 1 results. 

[HenryJames 66035]

38 minutes ago, The Ace of Aces said:

This Michigan D has better athletes and better position coaching than 2022 Alabama. It will by far be the hardest D Ewers and Sark have had to read. 

Do they? The DC is new. The DLine coach is new. The LB coach is new. The DBs coach is new. Why are they so great?

[closetojumping 62546]

43 minutes ago, Fico said:

Aren’t like 7 of the defensive starters new this year?

 

 

35 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Losing Sainristil (2nd round) and Rod Moore out with injury. Keon Saab was penciled in as starter. He transferred and is starting at Bama. They liked DK Waller and he was supposed to compete for a job. He is now at Kentucky. I think the secondary has taken a a step back.  

Yeah, they lost 9 starters on defense and the NB. 1 DT, 2 DEs, 3 LBs, 1 NB, 1 CB, 2 safeties. 

Graham is back, Johnson is back. Those guys go early. The backup DT who is now a starter, if he can show that he can overcome his Sydir Mitchell-esque conditioning issues, is allegedly a top 50 guy. 

The rest? Well, well, well, just rinse and repeat and the new guys are as good as the old guys. Transfers at LB that were not lauded lesser Big 10 programs are suddenly amazing. The program is touting Barham as a high draft pick because he’s a Big 10 thumper. I guess we’re gonna find out. 

Anyone accusing this Michigan defense as the best defense Texas has faced lately or will face this season is basing that take on what that other Michigan defense did with 3 of the same guys. 

Similarly, anyone worrying over the Michigan offense is doing so solely off of what they saw from other Michigan offenses in other seasons. They bring one starter back in Loveland. Fully new OL, including transfers, unknowns at QB, lowly rated new WRs, and Edwards (Corum’s backup) and unknowns behind him. 

The premise that this Michigan is that Michigan is laughable. They had a wholly separate offseason approach from prior seasons, they have a new DC, and they’re replacing Jim fucking Harbaugh. 

No one should really be expecting a blowout, but no one here is a buffoon for thinking that -7.5 makes sense or even looks good. 

[Fud 9551]

52 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Losing Sainristil (2nd round)

The also lost Junior Colston and Kris Jenkins 

Colston and Sainristil were dudes 

[Slacks 6819]

12 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Do they? The DC is new. The DLine coach is new. The LB coach is new. The DBs coach is new. Why are they so great?

P L A Y E R S

[Slacks 6819]

(not saying they have great players, but if they are great, it's because they have great players.)

[South Austin 52448]

Just now, Slacks said:

(not saying they have great players, but if they are great, it's because they have great players.)

Cutting.  Edge.  Analysis.

[Slacks 6819]

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Cutting.  Edge.  Analysis.

Is this where I say I cut the edge of your mom's anal and sis last night?

[South Austin 52448]

4 minutes ago, Slacks said:

Is this where I say I cut the edge of your mom's anal and sis last night?

[Teryor 4449]

3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Right. Irrespective of outcome this weekend, the UTSA game next weekend might very much look like the Wyoming game last year. Texas is a year older as a program under Sarkisian, so maybe less so, but still to some degree.

As to Michigan and that premise, there are issues with the Michigan program that likely play a much larger role than them holding anything back in terms of what we saw with the Fresno game. They lost one of the all-time great head football coaches, his DC, the S&C guy, 18 starters, and several other assistant coaches. Further, they haven't recruited like a typical national title contender. Their rankings average somewhere between 10 and 15. They use the portal intelligently, but they don't use it voluminously - they brought in 8 guys, multiple of whom now start, and lost 22. 

That all considered, everything about their program is about development. That's great and all until someone leaves ahead of schedule and the replacements aren't ready. I'll argue they got caught with their pants down on that matter at QB. Also, how has that development process changed with the exits of all of that key personnel as well? There is no argument that can credibly made that nothing changed, so did it get better or worse? Given Harbaugh vs Moore in that comparison, I know which direction I think is more likely. 

It can definitely wait till next week but I'm side-eyeing UTSA a bit without Harris given that in their opening game they didn't exactly make a statement that they're as good as the past couple years with a 12 point win over a team in their 1st game as an FBS program

[South Austin 52448]

Just now, Teryor said:

It can definitely wait till next week but I'm side-eyeing UTSA a bit without Harris given that in their opening game they didn't exactly make a statement that they're as good as the past couple years with a 12 point win over a team in their 1st game as an FBS program

I think Sark should spend the week before the UTSA game preparing for OU.

[TwiceHorn 31438]

6 hours ago, closetojumping said:

One thing Mack Brown was as good as any head coach, ever, was empathizing with a kicker with the game on the line. I’m sure one was missed at some point, but I don’t remember it. I can recall numerous game winning FGs during his tenure, though. It was crazy. Dude is a Kicker Whisperer. 

Sure, and sometimes stat dorks reach to torture data that isn’t anything but noise. Warren didn’t sell anything on the play fakes and they looked like shit. That offense wasn’t hiding a fucking thing other than maybe really showing us how bad the QBs really are. 

I remember writing a “Greg Davis Is Sandbagging the Offense” post on Hornfans after a few games and before Oklahoma. I had stats and formations and hints of things that could be coming. It went like 15 pages long in hopeful and interesting football dialogue amongst posters. Then Texas went out and got buttfucked in public by OU in another Mack Brown blowout. 

There is no sandbagging a bad offense.  The offense is gasping for air, even against mediocre teams, and needs any momentum it can find. The only honest thing that came out of the notion of Greg Davis sandbagging the offense was that he became a meme for the premise in our realm, and the term rightfully became one of derision. 

Well, sometimes he and Mack were sandbagging by holding back a freshman phenom RB, so that happened.

[4th and 5 4914]

 

[4th and 5 4914]

 

[Juicy 725]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s always difficult projecting the performance of a power running offense like Michigan’s. Do they look pedestrian against lesser opponents because they aren’t as good, or is that just what comes with an offense that isn’t as dynamic as a school like Texas. 

For as long as I can remember in college football, even last year, it’s been impossible to assume that the team with the more pedestrian looking offense will lose to the high flying one. The more dynamic offense can break down more easily because of its complexity. It’s also more dependent on key players. The pedestrian offense just lines up and beats the other guys play after play like a bully. 

This is exactly what has happened to Ohio State the past few years. I remember they were going to "hang a hundred" on Michigan in 21 and then Michigan just broke their soul, which turned into Ryan Day and his crusade to tell everyone (including Lou Holthz) how tough his team is. 

[ClubWhatever 12120]

There was nothing pedestrian about McCarthy when he got off schedule.

[The Ace of Aces 5175]

51 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Do they? The DC is new. The DLine coach is new. The LB coach is new. The DBs coach is new. Why are they so great?

Oh fair - I didn’t word that too well. I mean last year they were coached expertly. So they are continuing that style with Moore despite been faces in position. 

[Skipper 6127]

1 hour ago, Fico said:

 

I’m not going going into the game thinking we will put up 40, but what exactly about this years Michigan defense is warranting the title of best Ewers will have ever played.

Exactly what elite defenses has Ewers played dude.  This really isn't the stretch you are making it out to be.  The only other option is probably 2022 Bama.  Could throw 2022 TCU in there (at least the way they played that game, which I've just tried to forget).

[Rimbo 25911]

The best defense Ewers faces is the one he faces on every day other than Saturday.

[Codaxx 5717]

49 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Do they? The DC is new. The DLine coach is new. The LB coach is new. The DBs coach is new. Why are they so great?

Grant and Graham are both projected to be 1st round guys. A new coach isnt going to really change that. To quote Charlie Strong the cake is baked. 

I think it takes a little while for the coaching affect to be seen. Biggest risk is at DC. MInter was great at mixing up fronts, coverages, and had ton of simulated pressures schemes that got home. Wink can can fall in love with blitzing. He is much more aggressive. He is more likely to bring true blitzes (5-6 rushers, instead of some the simulated pressures that bring 4 from various spots (Aranda type stuff if that helps). 

[closetojumping 62546]

6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Exactly what elite defenses has Ewers played dude.  This really isn't the stretch you are making it out to be.  The only other option is probably 2022 Bama.  Could throw 2022 TCU in there (at least the way they played that game, which I've just tried to forget).

The Bama 2023 defense just had 6 guys drafted from it and Caleb Downs was paid $1M in NIL to transfer to Ohio State. That defense inarguably had more talent on it than what this Michigan defense is fielding. 

[Josef Pwag 1738]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Started at 3.5 and shot up immediately to 7.5. That much movement so fast doesn’t happen a lot. On one hand that implies the smart money believes Texas wins, and potentially wins big. But there’s also the counter argument that dumb money got too enamored with week 1 results. 

I have listened to more talking heads than I care to admit on YouTube this week. One was 2 gambling guys discussing this very thing. They theorized that it was the general public being too enamored with week 1 that jacked the line up to 6.5 (which is where it was when the video was made). They said they expected that, if the line got to 7 or 7.5, the sharps would pounce on that value, and the line would go back down to 6 or so. While it still could happen, it hasn't happened yet. Maybe the overreacting general public and the sharps agree. 

[Josef Pwag 1738]

Just now, closetojumping said:

The Bama 2023 defense just had 6 guys drafted from it and Caleb Downs was paid $1M in NIL to transfer to Ohio State. That defense inarguably had more talent on it than what this Michigan defense is fielding. 

Also, lost in all of this talk of comparing this Michigan D to Bama's D is that Bama had a highly functioning offense to support its defense, while Michigan's QB situation is comical. 

[Rickylovesweed 14262]

On the flip side, what elite offenses has this Michigan defense faced in the last 2 years in the Big 10?

Last year, they played Washington. That's 1. After that it's Ohio State and Alabama who had very flawed offenses due to problems at QB. It must be nice having to play the likes of Iowa in the Big 10 championship game, who struggle to score above 10 points a game. 

Edited September 4 by Rickylovesweed

[bluto 4912]

After what they did to wash last yr it’s silly to bag on that mich defense. Flip side is pointing to the tosu game as an indicator given how badly McCord shit his pants on multiple plays. 
 

with how much Mich is talking blitz, and how wildass the sark screen game is + athletic OL, bring that shit on. 

[HtownHorn 14663]

3 hours ago, Atticus said:

The idea that they were holding Alex Orji back, despite the fact that he needs all the snaps he can get to become a competent passer, is laughable. He isn’t even what Jalen Milroe was when we played them last year. 
 

They also don't have a Burton to match up against our non-existent Thompson.

[Juicy 725]

3 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Grant and Graham are both projected to be 1st round guys. A new coach isnt going to really change that. To quote Charlie Strong the cake is baked. 

I think it takes a little while for the coaching affect to be seen. Biggest risk is at DC. MInter was great at mixing up fronts, coverages, and had ton of simulated pressures schemes that got home. Wink can can fall in love with blitzing. He is much more aggressive. He is more likely to bring true blitzes (5-6 rushers, instead of some the simulated pressures that bring 4 from various spots (Aranda type stuff if that helps). 

This is the key and it scares the shit out of me. Is Wink going to go full Wink and send non stop blitzes ala Don Brown? Then every time they don't get home results in a 12+ yard in route completion? Or is he going to realize that Graham, Grant and Stewart are going to get home more often than not, against any line. Hausman and Barham are both really good  and can clean up the run game. Will Johnson is going to be a top 5 pick. That leaves you with a constantly rotating WDE and 4 DBs that they mix into coverage (Plus Hausman and Barham who both cover well), Michigan loves to drop their DE into the flat ever since Aidan and bring pressure from somewhere else. 

Is this going to be the best D Ewers has faced? Maybe, but I think UGA is going to end up being the best by the end of the season. Michigan lost a ton, but they also rotated more than any team I have ever seen last year, partly due to the depth and partly due to the fact that they didn't have to play anyone until November. All these guys playing this year played last year, A LOT. I know you all loved your DTs last year, Graham and Grant are Murphy and Sweat.

As crazy as it may sound, as far as the defense goes, the biggest loss probably wasn't one of the guys drafted, but the guy that got hurt in the Spring. Rod Moore. He was the legit QB of the defense, I would be a lot more confident if he was on the field on Saturday. Fucking Keon Sabb leaving to go to Bama, would have been able to step into that role if he wanted to compete. Ahhh well get your Money Keon. 

 

 

[TrashMaster G 17543]

52 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I think Sark should spend the week before the ULM game preparing for OU.

Fify

[Skipper 6127]

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

The Bama 2023 defense just had 6 guys drafted from it and Caleb Downs was paid $1M in NIL to transfer to Ohio State. That defense inarguably had more talent on it than what this Michigan defense is fielding. 

Fair.  I always think of that '22 Bama D as tougher but maybe that's because we played so well against the '23 version and that isn't giving enough credit to our guys.   I think clearly Michigan isn't as talented or deep as last year, but I know I saw preseason previews that projected both Graham and Johnson as top 5 picks with the other DE as a likely first rounder as well.  That's a pretty good start to a really solid defense.   We'll see Saturday but I'm going to be pretty surprised if we just go up and down the field like some are expecting.

[Fico 1778]

I mean I agree to an extent... I guess I was just pushing back on these guys being the 01 Ravens or some shit.

 

3 potential 1st round picks on the DL can mask a lot of other deficiencies. I just feel like if those guys don't absolutely destroy our OL (which is very experienced and has at least one 1st rounder as well) then we have the significantly better athletes and football players nearly everywhere else when talking O vs D.  QE has normally balled out in games like this, and if he is dropping dimes then I just don't see how we aren't scoring, and more snaps should equal better results for the offense as Michigan's D wears down (assuming their O doesn't come alive.)

[Longhornlove 4807]

32 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

To quote Charlie Strong the cake is baked. 

They had a walk on not named Baker Mayfield start at quarterback, the cake is not baked. Nice try though.

[Fud 9551]

For a guy who's currently projected to go in the top five, Graham doesn't seem like an especially freaky athlete. He's more of a technique, strength, motor, and nastiness guy than the elite Bama/Georgia IDL types we've seen 

[Zeus 6012]

2 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Nice Sark spot on Colin Cowherd. To say I am jacked up about this season is an understatement. Hook’em! 🤘🏼🤘🏼

 

[Dahobbs 17522]

15 minutes ago, Fico said:

I mean I agree to an extent... I guess I was just pushing back on these guys being the 01 Ravens or some shit.

 

3 potential 1st round picks on the DL can mask a lot of other deficiencies. I just feel like if those guys don't absolutely destroy our OL (which is very experienced and has at least one 1st rounder as well) then we have the significantly better athletes and football players nearly everywhere else when talking O vs D.  QE has normally balled out in games like this, and if he is dropping dimes then I just don't see how we aren't scoring, and more snaps should equal better results for the offense as Michigan's D wears down (assuming their O doesn't come alive.)

Being the best defense Ewers has faced and being the 01 Ravens are not the same thing. This will be at minimum the third best defense Ewers has seen. I think it is likely higher than that. But that is largely because the Big 12 just didn't have absolutely top flight defenses. And it doesn't mean that we will not be able to move the ball. For instance, if Michigan were to play a lot of man coverage like Alabama in 2022, Ewers would absolutely shred it. I don't expect it to do that though. Instead, Ewers will have to be patient like when playing Iowa State last year. And he really needs to not continue his habit of holding onto the ball for forever leading to a sack. 

Edited September 4 by Dahobbs

[Codaxx 5717]

8 minutes ago, Fud said:

For a guy who's currently projected to go in the top five, Graham doesn't seem like an especially freaky athlete. He's more of a technique, strength, motor, and nastiness guy than the elite Bama/Georgia IDL types we've seen 

Michigan guys think Grant has the higher ceiling between the 2 (not the better player currently). He just hasnt consistently shown that. This play got a lot of pub. 

 

Edited September 4 by Codaxx

[jdhorn92 1545]

For some reason, this game reminds me of our 2nd game of the 2006 season, the year after we won the NC vs USC.  The following season we played tOSU in Austin.  We had an inexperienced QB named Colt Mccoy and a solid defending Championship team full of future NFL players.  We played the buckeyes tough, but ended up losing by by 3 scores.  I recall a fumble on the goal line that certainly would have helped and 2 int's.

 

In the scenario this year, we would be playing the role of the Buckeyes and Michigan Texas.  Much more experienced team with an equal roster full of veterans.  On that day, OSU didnt turn the ball over and ground out a nice win on the road.  I can see this game going similarly if our veterans do what they are supposed to do. Play heady football, get through the 1st half and put it away in the 2nd half

[pearlandhorn 3269]

Quinn hates Michigan. He went to fucking Ohio State for a year and it brainwashed him. Horns by 100.

[Valmy77 13225]

Just now, pearlandhorn said:

Quinn hates Michigan. He went to fucking Ohio State for a year and it brainwashed him. Horns by 100.

Now there is an angle I hadn't considered.

Quinn demands Texas always goes for two after every TD, declaring he would prefer to go for three.

[perfectchaos007 6625]

I wonder if Quinn was on the travel roster when Ohio State played @ Michigan in 2021

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13570]

5 minutes ago, perfectchaos007 said:

I wonder if Quinn was on the travel roster when Ohio State played @ Michigan in 2021

 

[TxTower 650]

The Bama 2023 defense just had 6 guys drafted from it and Caleb Downs was paid $1M in NIL to transfer to Ohio State. That defense inarguably had more talent on it than what this Michigan defense is fielding. 

True but we also had a pretty experienced group with Worthy, Sanders, Brooks and even C. Jones to put up against them. All gone, including young stud Baxter. We’ve done a great job backfilling at skill positions but we lost run stoppers Murphy\Sweat and this game will be won or lost based on our ability to control the LOS. Apologies for the cliche.

Hope you enjoy the Big House game day experience. Hook Em!

[Zeus 6012]

25 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

Quinn hates Michigan. He went to fucking Ohio State for a year and it brainwashed him. Horns by 100.

alright alright alright

 

 

[closetojumping 62546]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

I have listened to more talking heads than I care to admit on YouTube this week. One was 2 gambling guys discussing this very thing. They theorized that it was the general public being too enamored with week 1 that jacked the line up to 6.5 (which is where it was when the video was made). They said they expected that, if the line got to 7 or 7.5, the sharps would pounce on that value, and the line would go back down to 6 or so. While it still could happen, it hasn't happened yet. Maybe the overreacting general public and the sharps agree. 

82% of the bets have been on Texas, as has 73% of the money. Known sharps have so far put money down on Texas. This is per my subscription to the Action Network. Others may have something better. I'm not a big bettor unless I am in Vegas or somewhere like it, but I find the data informative. Experts tracked by TAN for their purposes have all picked Michigan to cover and some on the ML. More usually happens on Th-Fri, I think.

[HenryJames 66035]

45 minutes ago, Fud said:

For a guy who's currently projected to go in the top five, Graham doesn't seem like an especially freaky athlete. He's more of a technique, strength, motor, and nastiness guy than the elite Bama/Georgia IDL types we've seen 

Racist, imo.

[Longboard Horn 40293]