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Week 2, 2024: Texas at Michigan

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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The Dog

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16 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is possible that Michigan just had a game like we did against Wyoming last year. Similar level of opponent (good lower level team capable of beating p4 teams). You'd think Ewers was terrible based upon just that game. The difference is that we had plenty of other game tape on him to prove he could play at a high level. Now, I think it is more likely that Michigan is going to struggle offensively this year. But I don't think it is necessarily a safe assumption that Michigan's QB play will be anywhere near that bad on Saturday. 

I think so but only if Michigan was looking ahead. We clearly didn't have that problem in our game against CSU. 

The difference in the Wyoming game was that we had a letdown game after the big win at Alabama the week before. 

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Fud

Fud 9525

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5 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

My biggest concern is we have a tendency to make shitty quarterbacks look like Heisman Trophy candidates

Actually changing up coverages more than a handful of times a game like we saw against CSU should make you feel better about this 

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crash_davis

crash_davis 23071

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22 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

That kick was definitely blocked and barely limped over the cross bar.

What people forget is the play before where we ran the ball. If I remember correctly, Benson was caught behind the line but basically carried 2 dudes for a 2 yard (it might have been 1 yard) gain. One play later, those 2 yards made all the difference in the world.

Yep, Ced was a fucking beast. 5 different defenders. It was his best unheralded 1 yard gain in his Texas career. He carried 2 and then a 3rd dude for 2 yards. 

 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62029

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18 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think so but only if Michigan was looking ahead. We clearly didn't have that problem in our game against CSU. 

The difference in the Wyoming game was that we had a letdown game after the big win at Alabama the week before. 

Right. Irrespective of outcome this weekend, the UTSA game next weekend might very much look like the Wyoming game last year. Texas is a year older as a program under Sarkisian, so maybe less so, but still to some degree.

As to Michigan and that premise, there are issues with the Michigan program that likely play a much larger role than them holding anything back in terms of what we saw with the Fresno game. They lost one of the all-time great head football coaches, his DC, the S&C guy, 18 starters, and several other assistant coaches. Further, they haven't recruited like a typical national title contender. Their rankings average somewhere between 10 and 15. They use the portal intelligently, but they don't use it voluminously - they brought in 8 guys, multiple of whom now start, and lost 22. 

That all considered, everything about their program is about development. That's great and all until someone leaves ahead of schedule and the replacements aren't ready. I'll argue they got caught with their pants down on that matter at QB. Also, how has that development process changed with the exits of all of that key personnel as well? There is no argument that can credibly made that nothing changed, so did it get better or worse? Given Harbaugh vs Moore in that comparison, I know which direction I think is more likely. 

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Bodacious Bevo

Bodacious Bevo 3572

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20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Right. Irrespective of outcome this weekend, the UTSA game next weekend might very much look like the Wyoming game last year. Texas is a year older as a program under Sarkisian, so maybe less so, but still to some degree.

As to Michigan and that premise, there are issues with the Michigan program that likely play a much larger role than them holding anything back in terms of what we saw with the Fresno game. They lost one of the all-time great head football coaches, his DC, the S&C guy, 18 starters, and several other assistant coaches. Further, they haven't recruited like a typical national title contender. Their rankings average somewhere between 10 and 15. They use the portal intelligently, but they don't use it voluminously - they brought in 8 guys, multiple of whom now start, and lost 22. 

That all considered, everything about their program is about development. That's great and all until someone leaves ahead of schedule and the replacements aren't ready. I'll argue they got caught with their pants down on that matter at QB. Also, how has that development process changed with the exits of all of that key personnel as well? There is no argument that can credibly made that nothing changed, so did it get better or worse? Given Harbaugh vs Moore in that comparison, I know which direction I think is more likely. 

Development-based programs area also going to have talent cycles. They'll be up in years with a senior and experienced roster and down in years with youth. This year is in the middle, minus the most important position. 

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Dahobbs

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1 hour ago, Fud said:

Actually changing up coverages more than a handful of times a game like we saw against CSU should make you feel better about this 

Honestly, I just loved that everyone in coverage seemed to be on the same page and know their jobs. That is a huge improvement from the last couple of years where, IMO, the biggest problem with our defense was simply blown coverage. 

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Fud

Fud 9525

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With the caveat that it's based only on the Fresno State game (they could be holding stuff back, weren't fully engaged, yada yada), Michigan doesn't just have a QB problem

Their WRs might be below average Big XII level. Their small fast guy isn't particular explosive for that archetype. Their "X" looks like a Garrett Gray. Their 3rd WR when in 11 is just fine, but they prefer to stay in 12 

Their FB/HB isn't as good as I'd expected. We've seen better on an annual basis at KSU

Michigan has had arguably the best OL in the country for each of the last three years. This OL is much closer to average P4

Their TE could be playing for an NFL team this Sunday. They're supposed to have a good second TE (#17) but I haven't seen him. Maybe he was held back?

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1535

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1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

My biggest concern is we have a tendency to make shitty quarterbacks look like Heisman Trophy candidates

My take is this secondary is closer to Ross, Griffin brothers, Earl etc.. than it is the secondaries that turned all of those Group of 5 qbs like UH, UTSA et al in to studs for one day.  I could be wrong , but this secondary has more Huffs than BJ Foster (thank you for Sugar Bowl caused fumble) and Chris Adimoras

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ClubWhatever

ClubWhatever 12079

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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Honestly, I just loved that everyone in coverage seemed to be on the same page and know their jobs. That is a huge improvement from the last couple of years where, IMO, the biggest problem with our defense was simply blown coverage. 

We're older back there but it can't be a coincidence that this looks improved after Nansen and Hazelton joined the staff.  One or both of those guys need to be kept around.
 

My biggest complaint with the D is the pad level on the interior line.  The ones not named Collins play standing up.  Jury is still out on Baker.  He needs to get that fixed.

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Jiggy-Z

Jiggy-Z 3427

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1 hour ago, Zeus said:

We aren't "building Alabama" in Austin, that's retarded. 

Sark is building the Texas Longhorns into a dynasty 

Nobody before Saban had that kind of dynasty unless you go back to the leather helmet days gone by with Yale.

Hot take: I suspect neither Smart nor Sark will come anywhere close to that...not only because it is difficult, but also due to new playoff format.

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Atticus

Atticus 3904

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The idea that they were holding Alex Orji back, despite the fact that he needs all the snaps he can get to become a competent passer, is laughable. He isn’t even what Jalen Milroe was when we played them last year. 
 

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MrX

MrX 700

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I know the recent Bama/Texas series got thrown around as a comparison earlier in this thread. I don’t really agree with that assessment. This week’s scenario feels more like 2006 when tOSU came to Austin. We had just won the national title but lost a bunch of key pieces, and tOSU brought back a super talented team from the year before. 
 

While we were game for a half, they just kind of strangled us out.  Those that played because they didn’t get hit with gun charges, that is (Thanks Aaron Harris!)

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20543

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Been watching a lot of game previews on YouTube. The one position group that is not being talked about enough or given any credit is the Texas Offensive Line. 

Yeah, the Michigan DL is filled with beasts. I hope Flood and the players have a little chip on this shoulder going into the game. We didn't play great in Week 1, which is fairly typical for O-lines. But all of the talk is is the Michigan DL when we have tons of starter/game experience with multiple players with elite talent. 

 

 

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Atticus

Atticus 3904

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43 minutes ago, MrX said:

I know the recent Bama/Texas series got thrown around as a comparison earlier in this thread. I don’t really agree with that assessment. This week’s scenario feels more like 2006 when tOSU came to Austin. We had just won the national title but lost a bunch of key pieces, and tOSU brought back a super talented team from the year before. 
 

While we were game for a half, they just kind of strangled us out.  Those that played because they didn’t get hit with gun charges, that is (Thanks Aaron Harris!)

So, they’d better hope their former walk on cancer survivor QB turns out to be their Colt McCoy. And even then, they lose by 17. Got it. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14895

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4 hours ago, Juicy said:

While Michigan isn't "high flying" by any means, they do have a pretty complex run game, showing different looks out of the same formation, double motion, 3 tackles, duo vs power, they have a pretty decent mix that they can show a look that has been on film and then run something completely different out of it. It was how Edwards broke his two long runs in the NCG, Wash thought they were running X and instead Michigan ran Z and Donovan had 70 yards of clear space. 

My thought on what they were holding back was that they put on tape that Orji will throw the ball, but that he was only playing about 7% of snaps. I expect Orji to be the QB significantly more than that this week, and I wouldn't be shocked if Orji played 80% of the snaps with a series or 2 for Warren III to give the D a different look. 

Who knows, we will see on Saturday.  The most points scored last year against Michigan was 24, by Ohio State, they held Washington to 13, I don't think there is a path for Texas to score 40+ like many are projecting, but if Texas turns it into a track meet its the quickest way to a Michigan loss. 

Time of Possession, Less Turnovers, Less Penalties, that is the path for Michigan to win. 

Side note. I know there are a lot of fans who believe the refs are out to get Texas, be prepared to be enraged on Saturday, because in general Michigan doesn't get penalized much. 

 

I am still high off the Natty, while I would love for a repeat of that and a great run this year, losing JJ, Blake, Harbaugh is a blow. This season feels like house money. Before last year I would have been losing my mind in a one score game against Fresno State early in the year (Bowling Green last year. 13-6 in the 3rd quarter with 3 JJ picks) Saturday night I didn't feel stressed at all. Just got to enjoy the game. It was crazy, maybe I am just old. 

I would love Saturday to be an all time classic like the Rose Bowl, preferably with a different result, if it comes down to a last second FG again that's a win in my book. (Block it though this time)

It’s always difficult projecting the performance of a power running offense like Michigan’s. Do they look pedestrian against lesser opponents because they aren’t as good, or is that just what comes with an offense that isn’t as dynamic as a school like Texas. 

For as long as I can remember in college football, even last year, it’s been impossible to assume that the team with the more pedestrian looking offense will lose to the high flying one. The more dynamic offense can break down more easily because of its complexity. It’s also more dependent on key players. The pedestrian offense just lines up and beats the other guys play after play like a bully. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17314

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11 minutes ago, BornAndRaised said:

Looks like Michigan Fans are saying this will be the best defense Ewers will face ever. I don't think that's the case, I think Alabama last season was. Is michigan really that good on defense? Because their offense doesn't scare me.

Yes. This will very likely be the best defense Ewers has faced. I think the closest other team would be 2022 Alabama, but I'm betting Michigan is better. 

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5529

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes. This will very likely be the best defense Ewers has faced. I think the closest other team would be 2022 Alabama, but I'm betting Michigan is better. 

If I remember correctly that Bama team mostly went man and gave Quinn easy reads. He lit them up (while he was in). Michigan is very good at mixing coverages, at least they were last few years. Michigan is better in the front. That Bama team was better in the back end. Michigan system is much more complex. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13055

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5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes. This will very likely be the best defense Ewers has faced. I think the closest other team would be 2022 Alabama, but I'm betting Michigan is better. 

This is their second game of the season, how can you possibly be so sure about that? Did they return everybody from last year or something?

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4646

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1 hour ago, ClubWhatever said:

My biggest complaint with the D is the pad level on the interior line.  The ones not named Collins play standing up.  Jury is still out on Baker.  He needs to get that fixed.

Maybe it's just that we've recruited at a JAG-level at interior defensive line in every Sark recruiting class (both out of high school and in the portal).  One of our key guys is a guy whose never been a good player at Texas and who literally skipped the spring game to get married. Fortunately, every position around that group is good to great, and so you hope we can mask our deficiencies in the middle. We'll certainly found out on Saturday.  

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17314

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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

This is their second game of the season, how can you possibly be so sure about that? Did they return everybody from last year or something?

They returned a lot of very good players that will get drafted. There just isn't any reason to think there will be a ton of drop off from last year's group. And they certainly looked the part against Fresno State. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13055

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

They returned a lot of very good players that will get drafted. There just isn't any reason to think there will be a ton of drop off from last year's group. And they certainly looked the part against Fresno State. 

I mean there never are tons of reasons to think a team will be very different from year to year except when that veteran senior laden team ends it's run.

But yet there usually are ups and downs and differences from year to year.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17314

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1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

I mean there never are tons of reasons to think a team will be very different from year to year except when that veteran senior laden team ends it's run.

But yet there usually are ups and downs and differences from year to year.

Michigan has 3 players on defense that could go in the first found. Other than 2022 Alabama, I don't think any other defense Ewers has faced has been near as talented. If you're expecting anything less than the best defense Ewers has played, prepare to be disappointed.

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Fico

Fico 1731

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10 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Did he just use a clip of a successful Fresno completion against Michigan to illustrate the dangers of throwing the same route combo against the same coverage with a significantly better QB and WR core?

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GTNY

GTNY 280

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2 minutes ago, Fico said:

Did he just use a clip of a successful Fresno completion against Michigan to illustrate the dangers of throwing the same route combo against the same coverage with a significantly better QB and WR core?

Yes but the clip also shows how they are jumping it and its a really risky play: 5 yards if successful, -7 points if they jump it right

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13055

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Michigan has 3 players on defense that could go in the first found. Other than 2022 Alabama, I don't think any other defense Ewers has faced has been near as talented. If you're expecting anything less than the best defense Ewers has played, prepare to be disappointed.

I expect them to be good.

I mean I am certainly not prepared to say this is the best offense Michigan will face all year. This the kind of early season game where we start to learn who our team is. Beating up on Colorado State, while not nothing, doesn't prove much.

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Mitch Cumsteen

Mitch Cumsteen 18489

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2 minutes ago, Fico said:

Did he just use a clip of a successful Fresno completion against Michigan to illustrate the dangers of throwing the same route combo against the same coverage with a significantly better QB and WR core?

Not only that but it wasn't the same combo. The route concept that Fresno ran, where the inside receiver also runs a curl allows the defender to come off his man and jump the route. In that same alignment against Texas, he would have had to follow the inside receiver downfield and cleared out the area. 

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naija

naija 2821

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33 minutes ago, BornAndRaised said:

Looks like Michigan Fans are saying this will be the best defense Ewers will face ever. I don't think that's the case, I think Alabama last season was. Is michigan really that good on defense? Because their offense doesn't scare me.

Will Johnson might be the top rated DB in next year's draft

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Codaxx

Codaxx 5529

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2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

They returned a lot of very good players that will get drafted. There just isn't any reason to think there will be a ton of drop off from last year's group. And they certainly looked the part against Fresno State. 

Losing Sainristil (2nd round) and Rod Moore out with injury. Keon Saab was penciled in as starter. He transferred and is starting at Bama. They liked DK Waller and he was supposed to compete for a job. He is now at Kentucky. I think the secondary has taken a a step back.  

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Fico

Fico 1731

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3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Michigan has 3 players on defense that could go in the first found. Other than 2022 Alabama, I don't think any other defense Ewers has faced has been near as talented. If you're expecting anything less than the best defense Ewers has played, prepare to be disappointed.

Umm didn’t Ewers light them up prior to get pile driven into the ground and going out of the game?

I’m not going going into the game thinking we will put up 40, but what exactly about this years Michigan defense is warranting the title of best Ewers will have ever played.

They have a first round CB and two very good DTs. What about the other 8 guys? What about their linebackers and safeties in space?

We aren’t going to line up and run it down there throat anyway. We are going to spread them out, make them run horizontal and then try to hit them over the top, or just let our guys work in space.

The challenge on offense will be if we can identify and protect their multiple blitz schemes. If we can do that most of the time, we will move the ball.

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FloridaHorn

FloridaHorn 4726

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MIchigan has a really good, disciplined defense. Their gameplan this weekend is simple to understand, and we will find out Saturday if it is simple to achieve. They want to control the clock, play field position, and force their opponents into mistakes which create short field situations for their pedestrian offense. They will run the ball 65-70% of the time on Saturday, if we allow that. If they get behind and have to throw to win, it will get ugly quickly. I expect that Orji plays a lot this weekend, simply because he gives them another RB in the backfield. If Texas can play with gap integrity and discipline on defense, we will hold them under 200 total yards. I expect the Horns to win this game by at least two touchdowns, because I don't think Michigan has the horses to run with our skill position players for 4 qtrs.

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