2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #2 /#2 (CFP/AP/Coaches)

[Horns RD Standard 69]

Seems like everyone’s only viewing this IU/OhSt from the angle of IU and them losing. Is it beyond the realm of possibilities that Oh St loses on Saturday? I mean they haven’t been some juggernaut either. If they were to lose, where will they be positioned amongst all these 2 loss SEC squads? I could see them dropping pretty far themselves

[DaggerHorns 3105]

9 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Yeah.. I wood. I'm drawn to idiots with perky breast's and a weird smile.

Lots of completely insane takes in this thread but I really can’t let this one go.

You think those are “perky?”

[Fondren & Main 6759]

If I’m a coach of a team that’s still alive I want to hear nonstop shit talk about my program.  Makes it easy to motivate guys.

[TrashMaster G 17717]

10 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

Yeah.. I wood. I'm drawn to idiots with perky breast's and a weird smile.

breast's???

[BurntEyes 6060]

39 minutes ago, DaggerHorns said:

Lots of completely insane takes in this thread but I really can’t let this one go.

You think those are “perky?”

Thirst is real, leave Brittney alone!

[BurntEyes 6060]

8 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

breast's???

Lol, that's a bizarre auto correct.. but I'll be the Breast's massager.

[BurntEyes 6060]

46 minutes ago, Horns RD Standard said:

Seems like everyone’s only viewing this IU/OhSt from the angle of IU and them losing. Is it beyond the realm of possibilities that Oh St loses on Saturday? I mean they haven’t been some juggernaut either. If they were to lose, where will they be positioned amongst all these 2 loss SEC squads? I could see them dropping pretty far themselves

Not everyone views it this way. I've offered to take IU and the points to any comers multiple times. So far no takers. I'm of the opinion IU wins, but I'm a fool with money.

[Pig Bellmont 8746]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Thanks for that incredibly brave yet controversial opinion, Chris. It’s only been talked about multiple times every day on the internet 

And tv. And every college football podcast. Talking heads are wishcasting for drama, because there is more fairness this season and more games actually matter. Grievance and injustice drives clicks

[Js1 85743]

1 hour ago, Horns RD Standard said:

Seems like everyone’s only viewing this IU/OhSt from the angle of IU and them losing. Is it beyond the realm of possibilities that Oh St loses on Saturday? I mean they haven’t been some juggernaut either. If they were to lose, where will they be positioned amongst all these 2 loss SEC squads? I could see them dropping pretty far themselves

Ohio State has helmet bias and their 2 losses would be to two top 5 teams, with a win over another top 5 team

I think they’re safely in even if they lose. I think Penn St may end up the odd one out if 4 B1G teams don’t get in, but I think they will 

[immamac 43553]

Now imagine if Texas beat Georgia. Everyone else would be irrelevant. 

[heso 2821]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

You seem overly defensive about this. Ryen Russillo is not an "asshat". You can agree with him or not but he's a multimillionaire and - in my opinion - one of the best voices on cfb and the NBA that there is going today. 

I'm happy to revisit this with you after the playoffs where I'm assuming that the SEC will dominate.

Him being a millionaire has nothing to do with this specific stupid take. He might be great at nba, I don’t know, I’ve never heard of him. 

He just has a bad take that losses, and bad losses at that, don’t matter for the sec teams just because he thinks they’re good teams. 

It’s not just him either. There’s a number of people that are of the mind that quality wins are the only measuring stick. That somehow having multiple losses including bad teams makes you more deserving than IU, psu, or Texas just because you beat uga or bama. It’s just a dumb opinion to have. The guy even knows it when he says that he’s normally of the opinion that losses matter, but not this time. And then he uses wins over arky and lsu as decent wins. 
 

strength of record:

IU - 6

bama - 7

Tenn - 10

ole miss - 12

 

Indiana is probably worse than those teams. But the results on the field matter.

[HenryJames 66275]

20 minutes ago, immamac said:

Now imagine if Texas beat Georgia.

[Pancho 45427]

I don’t know if it’s surprising or right on brand that UGA and Tennessee fans have picked up A&M’s juvenile antics and proclaim Texas paid for or heavily influenced the SEC to give us this schedule.

Its like those people live for conspiracy theories because it’s easier than just applying logic and reasoning.

[heso 2821]

2 hours ago, B00M said:

When there’s that big of a difference in schedule, you can’t punish the team that actually played reasonable opponents. When Indiana loses competitively, say by 7-10 points, to Ohio State, they will have absolutely no argument that they deserve a playoff spot over a team like Tennessee or Bama or Georgia or ole Miss. If Indiana gets rolled, you might as well be arguing that mizzou is a playoff team.

If Texas loses the SEC championship game, I hope we get to play a 1 loss Indiana or Boise State. Theyre the weakest teams in the conversation 

 

At the end of the season IU’s strength of schedule number wont look wildly worse than ole miss or Tennessee. IUs remaining strength of schedule is 4th, ole miss is 49, and UTs is 70th. Outside of uga, ole miss does not have a good schedule. Tenn at least got uga and bama. But both take a cowardly approach to non conference scheduling. 

It sucks for IU that UM and UW fell off as hard as they did. 

At the end of the day I’m not going to lose sleep over whoever gets left out. If it’s a 1 loss IU, well you shouldn’t have ducked Louisville ooc. If it’s a 2 loss sec team, well you shouldn’t have lost to vandy, Arkansas, or Kentucky on top of another loss. 

[Skipper 6292]

10 hours ago, Funk Doctor Spock said:

Jesus Christ on crutches, we aren't losing to those sheep fucking weirdo aggys. Good lord. 

They have, again, a shit QB, no offensive identity, no RB, no WRs worth a shit, no TE, and an average defense. 

I think we shuold win.  But they have a pretty damn good front 7 and that has been our biggest problem post Michigan.  Our OL is going to have to play a lot better than they did against OU and UGA (and Vandy) and Quinn can't get rattled when we inevitably have some busts that lead to sacks (i.e., we need Florida Quinn and OL play that shrugged off OL bust on first series costing us points).   Kentucky solid up front as well so will be a good gauge of where we are offensively headed into that game.

[satyanash 14769]

48 minutes ago, immamac said:

Now imagine if Texas beat Georgia. Everyone else would be irrelevant. 

Or at least kept it closer. Penn State should be getting the same flak we do, but they don't because they only lost their big game (Ohio State) by a touchdown.

[Js1 85743]

21 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know if it’s surprising or right on brand that UGA and Tennessee fans have picked up A&M’s juvenile antics and proclaim Texas paid for or heavily influenced the SEC to give us this schedule.

It’s like those people live for conspiracy theories because it’s easier than just applying logic and reasoning.

Pre-Texas, the SEC was a gauntlet from 1-14 and every team was in a war every Saturday for the past decade. 

Now it’s a schedule of cream puffs if Texas goes 7-1 and shouldn’t count for anything because it wasn’t a hard schedule. 

Meanwhile, in reality, Texas is pushing for the 9 game SEC schedule but the same people whining about our schedule don’t want to lose their guaranteed non-conference FCS win

Edited November 20 by Js1

[boilerhorn 1448]

20 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know if it’s surprising or right on brand that UGA and Tennessee fans have picked up A&M’s juvenile antics and proclaim Texas paid for or heavily influenced the SEC to give us this schedule.

Its like those people live for conspiracy theories because it’s easier than just applying logic and reasoning.

If Aggy/UGA/Tenn really believed that Texas paid for a better schedule, the first thought should have been, "Why did we not think of that first?"  NOT, "look at them Austin folks influencin' and buyin' the outcomes."  It's not like those programs are poor. 

Logic should have taken them to at least ask the question and conclude, "Oh, yeah.  Probably not the case."  But, logic is the key word here...

[dcar00 14598]

2 hours ago, statsman said:

Per Klatt: the argument that hurts Texas is that a playoff contender’s ceiling is demonstrated by their best win. So far, Texas’ best wins are Michigan or Vandy. That’s our problem. If the Horns win out, Texas’ best win will be TAMU. 

we'll need to remember this next year when we beat Georgia and lose to Kentucky.

[dcar00 14598]

6 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

If Aggy/UGA/Tenn really believed that Texas paid for a better schedule, the first thought should have been, "Why did we not think of that first?"  NOT, "look at them Austin folks influencin' and buyin' the outcomes."  It's not like those programs are poor. 

Logic should have taken them to at least ask the question and conclude, "Oh, yeah.  Probably not the case."  But, logic is the key word here...

It was cute when Saban said earlier this year that "we weren't going to run the SEC."

[jimmyjazz 46470]

If you look at the AP Top 15, according to ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric our schedule is tougher than that of 7 of those 15 teams.

This "Texas played nobody" nonsense is not being applied equally.  Our schedule is objectively more difficult than those of Oregon, Indiana (LOL), BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State.  It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

[dcar00 14598]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If you look at the AP Top 15, according to ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric our schedule is tougher than that of 7 of those 15 teams.

This "Texas played nobody" nonsense is not being applied equally.  Our schedule is objectively more difficult than those of Oregon, Indiana (LOL), BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State.  It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

We CAN't hAVe 5 SeC TeAMs iN ThE PLayoFf!

It is so fucking hilarious that now the SEC is not a weekly meat grinder like it has been for 15 years and bad losses don't matter.

[dcar00 14598]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Ohio State has helmet bias and their 2 losses would be to two top 5 teams, with a win over another top 5 team

I think they’re safely in even if they lose. I think Penn St may end up the odd one out if 4 B1G teams don’t get in, but I think they will 

The Big Ten must be the new "MeatGrinder"tm

[Js1 85743]

Just now, dcar00 said:

The Big Ten must be the new "MeatGrinder"tm

If Indiana wins - 4 B1G, 4 SEC, 1 Big 12, 1 ACC, 1 G5, ND 

Assuming we have a chalky last 2 weeks and not pure chaos. my assumption is that the SEC and B1G CCG losers will make it in, barring some sort of massive 70-3 blowout 

[Hagbard Celine 10994]

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

 It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

this should be the 1-line reply every instance of bitching about our schedule

put it on blast far and wide throughout the land

[jimmyjazz 46470]

1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

this should be the 1-line reply every instance of bitching about our schedule

put it on blast far and wide throughout the land

Yup.  Our SOS is 38, Penn State's is 35.

[TrashMaster G 17717]

2 hours ago, DaggerHorns said:

Lots of completely insane takes in this thread but I really can’t let this one go.

You think those are “perky?”

My gf is 50. I think they're pretty perky. 😁

[boilerhorn 1448]

14 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

If you look at the AP Top 15, according to ESPN's Strength of Schedule metric our schedule is tougher than that of 7 of those 15 teams.

This "Texas played nobody" nonsense is not being applied equally.  Our schedule is objectively more difficult than those of Oregon, Indiana (LOL), BYU, Miami, Notre Dame, SMU and Boise State.  It's approximately equal to Penn State's schedule.

Similarly, the top 20 from Sagarin - Texas has the #7 SOS of that list.  And Aggy/Tenn are only marginally better.

College Football 2024 through 2024 November 16 Saturday - Week #12
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.12]                                               [  3.12]       [  3.23]       [  3.00]       [  3.00]
   1  Alabama              A  =  92.37    8   2   76.72(   9)    1   1  |    4   1  |   91.36    1 |   91.90    5 |   96.38    2 |  100.43    4  SEC                 (A)
   2  Texas                A  =  92.33    9   1   73.05(  38)    0   1  |    2   1  |   90.87    2 |   92.62    3 |   96.00    3 |   98.94    5  SEC                 (A)
   3  Ohio State           A  =  92.11    9   1   69.63(  61)    1   1  |    2   1  |   90.24    5 |   93.00    2 |   95.64    5 |  100.86    3  BIG TEN             (A)
   4  Georgia              A  =  92.07    8   2   80.65(   1)    2   2  |    4   2  |   90.62    4 |   94.11    1 |   93.88    6 |   94.11    8  SEC                 (A)
   5  Mississippi          A  =  91.96    8   2   72.46(  44)    1   0  |    3   1  |   90.69    3 |   91.12    6 |   96.93    1 |  102.72    1  SEC                 (A)
   6  Notre Dame           A  =  91.12    9   1   68.04(  67)    0   0  |    2   0  |   89.90    6 |   90.31    7 |   95.83    4 |  101.07    2  I-A IND.            (A)
   7  Oregon               A  =  89.82   11   0   71.60(  52)    1   0  |    2   0  |   87.84    7 |   91.96    4 |   91.92    8 |   94.56    7  BIG TEN             (A)
   8  Penn State           A  =  88.94    9   1   72.28(  46)    0   1  |    1   1  |   87.42    8 |   89.30    8 |   92.12    7 |   96.00    6  BIG TEN             (A)
   9  Tennessee            A  =  85.59    8   2   73.37(  35)    1   1  |    3   1  |   85.21    9 |   86.12    9 |   86.68    9 |   88.50   14  SEC                 (A)
  10  Miami-Florida        A  =  84.65    9   1   70.62(  59)    0   0  |    2   0  |   83.28   11 |   86.07   10 |   85.88   12 |   88.57   13  ACC                 (A)
College Football 2024 through 2024 November 16 Saturday - Week #12
                                RATING    W   L  SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 |  PREDICTOR   | GOLDEN_MEAN  |  RECENT      | STRONG RECENT
                HOME ADVANTAGE=[  3.12]                                               [  3.12]       [  3.23]       [  3.00]       [  3.00]
  11  South Carolina       A  =  84.39    7   3   77.82(   5)    0   2  |    3   3  |   84.33   10 |   84.07   12 |   85.90   11 |   90.31   11  SEC                 (A)
  12  Indiana              A  =  83.68   10   0   65.90(  77)    0   0  |    0   0  |   82.99   12 |   83.95   14 |   85.13   14 |   91.58    9  BIG TEN             (A)
  13  Colorado             A  =  83.33    8   2   75.13(  22)    0   0  |    0   1  |   82.70   13 |   82.35   18 |   86.25   10 |   91.46   10  BIG 12              (A)
  14  Clemson              A  =  83.18    8   2   71.74(  51)    0   1  |    0   2  |   82.13   15 |   82.90   17 |   85.70   13 |   88.39   15  ACC                 (A)
  15  Texas A&M            A  =  82.95    8   2   73.38(  34)    0   1  |    3   2  |   82.29   14 |   84.91   11 |   82.63   18 |   82.71   22  SEC                 (A)
  16  SMU                  A  =  82.79    9   1   69.30(  64)    0   0  |    1   1  |   81.67   19 |   83.95   13 |   83.70   16 |   87.14   16  ACC                 (A)
  17  Iowa State           A  =  82.32    8   2   72.79(  41)    0   0  |    1   1  |   81.87   18 |   83.32   15 |   82.55   19 |   84.29   19  BIG 12              (A)
  18  LSU                  A  =  81.94    6   4   79.20(   3)    1   1  |    2   4  |   82.04   17 |   82.93   16 |   81.56   22 |   79.61   31  SEC                 (A)
  19  Iowa                 A  =  81.69    6   4   72.60(  43)    0   1  |    0   2  |   82.11   16 |   80.88   23 |   82.88   17 |   84.06   20  BIG TEN             (A)
  20  Tulane               A  =  81.16    9   2   64.17(  90)    0   0  |    0   2  |   81.35   20 |   79.03   27 |   84.45   15 |   90.18   12  AMERICAN ATHLETIC   (A)

[Tex Long 4509]

Fuck a five-gallon bucket full of "what if...".

Just win, baby, just win.

 

But, as for what actually happened so far, as opposed to what if...

The only difference between our SEC schedule and Tennessee's is that we play aggy and they play Bama. We beat Piggy while they didn't. I haven't heard a buncha bitchin' about how soft Tennessee's schedule is.

And speaking of results... Oregon squeaked by Wiscy by a field goal, and Bama kicked the living shit outta the Badgers. Transitive or no, there's something to chew on.

 

[David Dennison 19117]

The CFP needs to do away with at-large bids. Figure out a system of automatic qualifiers and be done with it.

[The Dog 44180]

We obviously need to take care of business against Kentucky for the following to matter, but:

The "nobody is talking about" conversation is NOT whether Texas loses to aggy.

It's that there's a very real possibility that Tennessee loses to Vandy and Ole Miss loses to Florida (now that they have Lagway back.)

In that scenario we'd have a great chance to "back in" even with a loss at aggy.

[statsman 5497]

Per the ESPN playoff calculator, chances of making CFP:

Texas- 10-2: 75%, 11-2: 99%, 9-3: 2%
Georgia- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 83%, 9-3: 51%

Ole Miss: 10-2: 86%, 10-3: 62%, 9-3: 1%
Tennessee- 10-2: 83%, 19-3: 24%, 9-3: 1%
Bama- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 71%, 9-3: 17%
TAMU- 10-3: 58%, 9-3: 5%, 9-4: 1%
 

I am curious about the assumptions that have the SEC CG loss lowering chances versus not playing in the game at all. 

[chainsaw 9998]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

I don’t know if it’s surprising or right on brand that UGA and Tennessee fans have picked up A&M’s juvenile antics and proclaim Texas paid for or heavily influenced the SEC to give us this schedule.

Its like those people live for conspiracy theories because it’s easier than just applying logic and reasoning.

We bribed Saban into retiring and bribed DeBoer to replace him, and we also bribed Connor Stallions and Jim Harbaugh so that our inaugural SEC season would be perfect, then the big cigars bribed Quinn Ewers and Sark to throw the Georgia game so that there would be plausible deniability. The phantom DPI call was choreographed and staged, Jahdae Barron and Arian Smith were in league, as was the first beer thrower, and the referees who we paid reversed the call just so that everyone else knows who's boss and who really runs things. They're not even trying to hide it.

[Herpa Derpa 6158]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

Its like those people live for conspiracy theories because it’s easier than just applying logic and reasoning.

You can’t apply what you don’t have. 

[runthebone 8131]

Obviously, winning is super valuable.  Not losing is fucking worthless.  Duh.

[Skipper 6292]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

Per the ESPN playoff calculator, chances of making CFP:

Texas- 10-2: 75%, 11-2: 99%, 9-3: 2%
Georgia- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 83%, 9-3: 51%

Ole Miss: 10-2: 86%, 10-3: 62%, 9-3: 1%
Tennessee- 10-2: 83%, 19-3: 24%, 9-3: 1%
Bama- 10-2: 99%, 10-3: 71%, 9-3: 17%
TAMU- 10-3: 58%, 9-3: 5%, 9-4: 1%
 

I am curious about the assumptions that have the SEC CG loss lowering chances versus not playing in the game at all. 

Edit. Nevermind.  This must be a different calculator than the one I looked at yesterday.

Edited November 20 by Skipper

[statsman 5497]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

A 10-2 Texas more likely to get in compared to a 10-2 Georgia tells me all I need to know about that "calculator".  0% chance that would happen.

I think you have it backwards. Calculator says 10-2 UGA (win out, no CG) has a 99% chance. 10-2 Texas (1-1, no CG) has 75% chance. That doesn’t make sense to you?

[Fondren & Main 6759]

19-3 Tennessee should definitely be in!

[EuroHorn 3276]

3 hours ago, immamac said:

Now imagine if Texas beat Georgia. Everyone else would be irrelevant. 

You may say I'm a dreamer
But I'm not the only one

[Skipper 6292]

32 minutes ago, statsman said:

I think you have it backwards. Calculator says 10-2 UGA (win out, no CG) has a 99% chance. 10-2 Texas (1-1, no CG) has 75% chance. That doesn’t make sense to you?

Right.  I edited too slowly.  There was a calculator someone posted somewhere yesterday that let you play out outcomes and it had us in over Georgia I believe which made no sense.

[Hagbard Celine 10994]

2 hours ago, chainsaw said:

We bribed Saban into retiring and bribed DeBoer to replace him, and we also bribed Connor Stallions and Jim Harbaugh so that our inaugural SEC season would be perfect, then the big cigars bribed Quinn Ewers and Sark to throw the Georgia game so that there would be plausible deniability. The phantom DPI call was choreographed and staged, Jahdae Barron and Arian Smith were in league, as was the first beer thrower, and the referees who we paid reversed the call just so that everyone else knows who's boss and who really runs things. They're not even trying to hide it.

even though you copypasted this from texags, we know it's real because there is no accusation of bribing 0u in to sucking

[Js1 85743]

In addition to Texas having wins over the unranked teams that beat Bama, Ole Miss and Tennessee, CSU being 7-3 is sneaky good for our resume.  We (currently) have played only .500 and above teams in non-conf and the only under-.500 team we've played is MSST

Of course, that will change Saturday with Kentucky being 4-6, and how the end of season shakes up for all the 5-5 teams like OU, Florida, ULM, UTSA, Arkansas and Michigan.  If a couple of them can finish 7-5, it will add a little more legitimacy to our resume. 

And of course, ending with a win against 9-3 aggy would help a lot. (bc we will win) 

[Pimphand 6047]

We're so good we make the list twice! Indiana was close at 1.5

[Valmy77 13431]

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

Edited November 20 by Valmy77

[chainsaw 9998]

Yup. Just Win Baby.

[chainsaw 9998]

Next year UTEP could theoretically make the playoff and win a natty. That wouldn't have been possible last year or any other prior year. Could they be fucked on seeding and ranking? Yes, but there's no way an undefeated team isn't going to make the playoff.

[thunderlounge 8029]

5 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

this should be the 1-line reply every instance of bitching about our schedule

put it on blast far and wide throughout the land

And let’s not forget that TN’s conf schedule is only 1 different opponent than ours.

 

[David Dennison 19117]

38 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

What sucks ass is at-large bids.

They need to stop. 

Devise a system of automatic bids only.

[Magus Ossis 2883]

Just now, David Dennison said:

What sucks ass is at-large bids.

They need to stop. 

Devise a system of automatic bids only.

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

[BurntEyes 6060]

5 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

My gf is 50. I think they're pretty perky. 😁

This, plus she has sort of an Aubrey Plaza thing going on which actually aligns well with her take which are mostly just contrary Mofo stuff. It generates clicks and debates... so.. it's working well.