2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #3 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)

[David Dennison 18851]

1 minute ago, Magus Ossis said:

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

And you get to this dumb shit about a committee picking who goes. It's stupid.

[BurntEyes 5958]

22 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

Counter point Notre Dame.

They're going to get in every year if they have less than 3 losses. Schedule be damned and they'll never be in a Conference champion game.

Nobody is bitching about NDs shitty Schedule, massively shitty loss, and other frankly mediocre at the eye test play. 

Nobody is even questioning them. 

They could lose another an I bet they still make it in over some far more deserving teams that potentially played in an lost a CCG.

Notre Dame completely invalidates at large. They, alone, make it broken.

When you add all the other perception and subjective aspects to the selection, it goes from broken to completely fucked.

[Magus Ossis 2797]

27 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And you get to this dumb shit about a committee picking who goes. It's stupid.

I agree that the subjective aspect is frustrating. I think the combination of automatic and at-large bids helps ensure both that (major conference) teams have a "safe" path to the playoffs (win the conference) without the need for committee support as well as an opportunity to "come back" if they are having a good year, but might have some early-season wart or other one-off problem that caused them to miss or lose the CCG. There seem to be years when the #2 or #3 team from one conference is objectively (Sagarin, PFF, or whatever) better than other conferences' champions. Not everyone will agree, but I like the way the 12-team field allows for both paths to the post-season.

Edited 23 hours ago by Magus Ossis

[Pimphand 5734]

1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

There is however a monumental difference in the B1G dregs and SEC dregs. The SEC has tried to maintain some modicum of football decency in the 6 additions even though to date 0 of those teams have won the SECCG (hopefully we fix that this year)

Adding Maryland & Rutgers were never going to move the football needle Tom Herman be damned.

They already had plenty of shitty historical football programs between Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, & Illinois. Mix in the catastrophic Nebraska results and you have a real shit stew going on

[dcar00 14157]

43 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What sucks ass is at-large bids.

They need to stop. 

Devise a system of automatic bids only.

I was planning on doing a computer type thing.  My first thought was to call it BCS or something like that but then I thought....nah, that wouldn't work.

[Js1 85289]

46 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Disagree. At-large bids allow for putting better teams in the playoff when the relative strengths of conferences vary. Guaranteeing the B12 runner-up a spot might make for more predictability, but there will be years when they belong and years when they do not. Much like with March madness, I think at-large bids are important.

I think the CCG runner-ups should make it, assuming they are ranked in the top 16 or so. 

The CCG is playing for a bye, but the loser should not be punished unless it's 70-3 or 59-0. 

[Magus Ossis 2797]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I think the CCG runner-ups should make it, assuming they are ranked in the top 16 or so. 

The CCG is playing for a bye, but the loser should not be punished unless it's 70-3 or 59-0. 

I pretty much agree with these sentiments. I think having rankings plays a role, and then put teams in with degrees of bid certainty: top 4 (or whatever) champions are seeded 1-4 and given byes. 5th (or whatever) champ gets auto-bid. Next, all champs in top X get bids. Next, all runners-up in top Y get bids. Then fill remaining spots with highest ranked remaining teams. The harder question would be how fairly (and hopefully objectively) to distinguish between CCG losses and CCG beat-downs.

[Js1 85289]

Just now, Magus Ossis said:

I pretty much agree with these sentiments. I think having rankings plays a role, and then put teams in with degrees of bid certainty: top 4 (or whatever) champions are seeded 1-4 and given byes. 5th (or whatever) champ gets auto-bid. Next, all champs in top X get bids. Next, all runners-up in top Y get bids. Then fill remaining spots with highest ranked remaining teams. The harder question would be how fairly (and hopefully objectively) to distinguish between CCG losses and CCG beat-downs.

I think if you're a borderline top 16 CCG participant (think a #13 LSU or #15 SMU) and you get beat down by 3 TDs, you probably just ended up on the wrong side of the playoff bubble and opened the door for someone else who was maybe #3 in their conference but is ranked in the top 15-20.

[TxEx84 398]

37 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

There is however a monumental difference in the B1G dregs and SEC dregs. The SEC has tried to maintain some modicum of football decency in the 6 additions even though to date 0 of those teams have won the SECCG (hopefully we fix that this year)

Adding Maryland & Rutgers were never going to move the football needle Tom Herman be damned.

They already had plenty of shitty historical football programs between Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, & Illinois. Mix in the catastrophic Nebraska results and you have a real shit stew going on

Too soon

[BigHornedLurker 1935]

interesting thread on SOR on reddit worth checking out 

https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1gvqsvp/cfp_rankings_compared_to_strength_of_record/

main take aways, hate on texas is over stated. this matches up pretty well with both wins AND losses . 

Biggest delta are Notre Dame, Colorado, Tulane, and UNLV are overrated 

UGA, BYU are the teams getting the most disrespect (LSU would be there too with at least 6 spots of difference)

 

[Huckleberry 32849]

Hahaha that thread is full of people suggesting things that computer ratings systems have been doing for 30 years. 

Particularly hilarious is where they say you could use SOR but then consider MOV but not straight MOV because there should be diminishing returns on blowouts. ESPN's Strength of Record but with MOV considered but not straight MOV is exactly what FPI is. Idiots. 

Edited 22 hours ago by Huckleberry

[statsman 5453]

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for:

1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 
2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate. 

[The Dog 44019]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859223075255898493.html

Spoiler

So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵 

15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll). 

14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont) 

...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws. 

13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5. 

12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye. 

11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that. 

10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays. 

9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky. 

8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama. 

7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee. 

6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed. 

5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand. 

4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out. 

3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1. 

2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally. 

1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans. 

tl;dr:

The committee uses four criteria for ranking: Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins, Top 25 wins, and "Game Control."

Texas is ranked where we are due to our SOS of 60 and a Game Control number of 25.1. Hurt by lack of QWs and that six of our wins are teams that are currently .500 and most will likely finish that way. 

SEC teams behind us not named Georgia and Bama are hurt by their overall strength of schedule (turns out scheduling trash OOC teams means something - UGA and Bama rewarded for scheduling P4 OOC games).

UGA hurt by game control number of 12.3 (hello Kentucky and Florida games). 

[Hagbard Celine 10852]

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

Counter point Notre Dame.

They're going to get in every year if they have less than 3 losses. Schedule be damned and they'll never be in a Conference champion game.

Nobody is bitching about NDs shitty Schedule, massively shitty loss, and other frankly mediocre at the eye test play. 

Nobody is even questioning them. 

They could lose another an I bet they still make it in over some far more deserving teams that potentially played in an lost a CCG.

Notre Dame completely invalidates at large. They, alone, make it broken.

When you add all the other perception and subjective aspects to the selection, it goes from broken to completely fucked.

yes, but the sec and b1g made their bed and are lying in it - they bargained with jesus and the compromise was domer remains special and above it all in exchange for never getting a bye

it's why the national media are completely ignoring them - there's no controversy - lose and they're out - win and they're in

[Hank_Hill 18793]

58 minutes ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
 

There’s 6 other one loss teams ahead of them what are they salty about Texas for?

[dcar00 14157]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for:

1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 
2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate. 

Hopefully Sankey has a little talk with the stripes

[dcar00 14157]

6 minutes ago, Hank_Hill said:

There’s 6 other one loss teams ahead of them what are they salty about Texas for?

Everything?

[dcar00 14157]

51 minutes ago, The Dog said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859223075255898493.html

  Reveal hidden contents

So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵 

15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll). 

14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont) 

...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws. 

13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5. 

12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye. 

11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that. 

10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays. 

9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky. 

8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama. 

7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee. 

6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed. 

5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand. 

4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out. 

3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1. 

2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally. 

1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans. 

tl;dr:

The committee uses four criteria for ranking: Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins, Top 25 wins, and "Game Control."

Texas is ranked where we are due to our SOS of 60 and a Game Control number of 25.1. Hurt by lack of QWs and that six of our wins are teams that are currently .500 and most will likely finish that way. 

SEC teams behind us not named Georgia and Bama are hurt by their overall strength of schedule (turns out scheduling trash OOC teams means something - UGA and Bama rewarded for scheduling P4 OOC games).

UGA hurt by game control number of 12.3 (hello Kentucky and Florida games). 

This is interesting.  It means who you lose to doesn't matter(I guess your game control goes lower in a loss but I know nothing on how that is calculated).  Unless they start by ranking everyone by # of losses and then start moving teams around based on the other criteria, losses don't matter at all.

[Dewey 3286]

39 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

This is interesting.  It means who you lose to doesn't matter(I guess your game control goes lower in a loss but I know nothing on how that is calculated).  Unless they start by ranking everyone by # of losses and then start moving teams around based on the other criteria, losses don't matter at all.

So loses don't matter at all? 

[satyanash 14477]

David Hale: Who should be most angry in Week 13? Everyone not named Texas in the SEC

Quote

Let's state something at the top: Texas is probably quite good. It is, of course, not the Longhorns' fault they joined the SEC and still drew a Big 12-caliber schedule. But facts are facts, and in a conference with six eight-win teams and four more already bowl eligible, Texas has played exactly two Power 4 opponents with a winning record this season. Those games resulted in a three-point win over Vanderbilt and a shellacking by Georgia. But Texas has one loss, and the rest of the SEC competition has two or three. Is that all that should matter?

Ultimately, winning games is the most important thing, and the committee seems to recognize that with Indiana at No. 5, despite a schedule that might well have included a home game against Bishop Sycamore. But is it all that matters? If Texas played Georgia's schedule, would it still have a better record? Their head-to-head meeting would suggest otherwise.

Again, it's hardly Texas' fault the SEC rolled out the red carpet in Year 1. But it is up to Texas to impress when the spotlight is on, and since the blowout win against Michigan -- a team vastly overrated at the time -- the marquee moments have been mostly meh, right up to last week's mediocrity against Arkansas.

Ultimately, an incredibly good SEC team -- Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina or Alabama -- is going to end up having played a markedly tougher schedule, proved they can hang with the best of the best, and either go on the road for a arduous opening-round matchup or be left out altogether. (Seriously, how is Georgia the 10th-best team in the country? There's no logical argument.) But Texas? Even with a loss to A&M, it's hard to see the Horns falling from No. 3 to a place outside the top 11.

 

[Js1 85289]

7 minutes ago, satyanash said:

David Hale: Who should be most angry in Week 13? Everyone not named Texas in the SEC

 

[Treefidy 1463]

12 hours ago, DaggerHorns said:

Lots of completely insane takes in this thread but I really can’t let this one go.

You think those are “perky?”

 

yes, yes he does

[Jimbob 419]

5 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Seems to be a lot of whining about how Super Conferences suck ass from a scheduling perspective.

Well no shit. This is always going to be a problem. This is why we shouldn't have these damn 16 team conferences when you only have 8 or 9 conference games.

Fortunately we sort of delt with this problem with the playoff so ultimately you have to beat the top teams.

That’s why we should split the conference in half and have an SECe and SECw.  We can shorten it to be the SEC and SWC, and Aggies will implode for good when they have to trade in their patches.  

[dcar00 14157]

38 minutes ago, satyanash said:

David Hale: Who should be most angry in Week 13? Everyone not named Texas in the SEC

 

ha.  now the SEC *MeatGrinder*tm is comparable to a Big 12 schedule because we are 9-1.  We are destroying the SEC Bias just like we destroyed Nebraska's bullshit in the Big 8.  We really do run this shit.

[LTtxfan 49144]

SIAP...

 

 

 

[MIkeHoncho 1909]

I really hope the talking heads keep talking shit about Texas and how we haven't beaten anyone, blah blah blah.  Opposite of rat poison.  Could be one more thing Sark can use to motivate.   

[WBT 20561]

5 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

SIAP...

 

 

 

Or they could try to win out and get the 1 seed.  Tough call.

Edited 18 hours ago by WBT

[utee94 15808]

Texas and A&M each have two more SEC games.  Several other teams have at least one.

We COULD wait until the end of the season and see how it all shakes out, see if there's any reason to actually get up in arms.

But nah, it's way better to engage in histrionics about things that might be, things that haven't happened and very well might not ever happen.  It's better for clicks and eyeballs and whatnot.  Same as it ever was.

[fellside 1113]

24 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Texas and A&M each have two more SEC games.  Several other teams have at least one.

We COULD wait until the end of the season and see how it all shakes out, see if there's any reason to actually get up in arms.

But nah, it's way better to engage in histrionics about things that might be, things that haven't happened and very well might not ever happen.  It's better for clicks and eyeballs and whatnot.  Same as it ever was.

Agreed.

A huge chunk of the teams people are whining about right now are either going to be completely out of it or prove themselves in the next three weeks. 

Arguing about Indiana right now is like trying to say the Commanders can't beat Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Like... Okay? Fuck em, but let's see what happens.

[Horndog 2228]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859223075255898493.html

  Reveal hidden contents

So #CFBPlayoff rankings, were u surprised? Its a predictable process unchanged for 10 yrs. @CFBMatrix & I have projected better than any entity & have done so for a decade. We've been off only an avg of 0.68 places per team for the entire Top 15 this season. Let’s take a look.🧵 

15 #TAMU #GigEm

Projected 15. Spot on. This is where the #Aggies will stay until that big #Texas game (more on that later). SOS 31, 3 QWs, 2 T25Ws. Those are all good enuf to be ranked higher but game control is low at 12.2 (2nd lowest in the poll). 

14 #BYU #Cougars

Projected 12. Ok, so this is the only team that may have a gripe this week. Just a small one though. Typically, w/similar resumes the committee will give credence to head 2 head results. #BYU beat #SMU head 2 head (cont) 

...(#BYU cont) so it was a bit odd they fell below them. They must feel the resumes are dis-similar enough to justify it. SOS at 100 & the worst game control in the poll (12.1) make that justifiable. They do have 3 QWs & 2 T25Ws. 

13 #SMU #PonyUp

Projected 13. Bingo. So what separates #Miami from #SMU? Both have similar SOS (82 vs 91), QWs (4 vs 2), T25Ws (1 vs 1) so why is #SMU outside the Top 12? Game control. Its one of the most important metrics & #SMU has the 3rd worst in the poll at 17.5. 

12 #BoiseState #Broncos

Projected 14. Very similar profile to #SMU. SOS 87, 4 QWs, 1 T25W, & a game control of 18.9. If the Big 12 champion ends with 1 L, I would expect Boise to drop out of the bye round based on past behavior; but for now the #Broncos have that 1st round bye. 

11 #Tennessee #Vols

Projected 11. I warned #Vols fans last week an L vs #UGA would drop them out of contention & thats exactly what happened. Unless there is a major shakeup the #Vols will be sitting this first expanded playoffs out. SOS 90, 1 QW, 1 T25W, & GC 21.1 will do that. 

10 #Georgia #GoDawgs

Projected 10. Surprised yet? #UGA has a great profile, SOS 17, 3 QW, 3 T25W. Only fly in the ointment is game control (12.3). The L to both #Alabama & #OleMiss will keep them here, but they should be in the playoff albeit traveling for the holidays. 

9 #OleMiss #HottyToddy

Projected 9. That W vs #UGA is huge. It likely sealed #OleMiss as a playoff team. The profile is just ok (SOS 75, 3 QW, 2 T25W) but they have the 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.8 which helps overcome that bad L to #Kentucky. 

8 #Miami #Canes

Projected 7. Right near where projected. So why did the 1 L #Canes slip below 2 L #Bama? It was extremely close in the model & not a surprise the committee made the jump. Compare the profiles: SOS 91, 2 QW, 1 T25W, Game control 21.9. Now see #Alabama. 

7 #Alabama #RTR

Projected 8. Not surprised by this flip at all. #Bama may have the best profile in the poll. SOS 15, 5 QW, 4 T25W, game control 22.6. Even with 2 Ls that type of profile is going to go a long way with the committee. 

6 #NotreDame #GoIrish

Projected 6. Perfect. The #Irish do have an iron clad profile: SOS is low at 86 but game control is high at 26.6. 5 QW & 2 T25Ws. They, however, can’t afford another slip up. Win out and the #Irish should end up the 5 or 6 seed. 

5 #Indiana #Hoosiers

Projected 5. So how can a team w/ a SOS of 118 and only 1 QW be ranked so high? 0 Ls & the highest game control in the poll at 30.1. Game control above 30 is exceptional. The #Hoosiers can afford an L to #OhioState, but it can’t get out of hand. 

4 #PennState #WeAre

Projected 4. The #NittanyLions have done everything asked except beat the #Buckeyes. SOS 96 isn’t great, but the moderate game control at 19.4 makes up for it along w/ the 4 QWs. They can’t afford a slip up or they will tumble out. 

3 #Texas #HookEm

Projected 3. How competitive is this playoff field? If the #Longhorns were upset in that last game vs #TAMU, they likely would go from 3, to out. The margin is that tight. SOS 60 is adequate but only 2 QWs w/0 T25Ws is concerning. Game control is good at 25.1. 

2 #OhioState #Buckeyes

Projected 2. The #Buckeyes are the only team I can see w/1 L that could lose another & be ok. As long as that L is a close one to #Oregon. SOS 63 is ok. 3 QWs is fine. 1 T25W is a bit low but ok. 2nd highest game control in the poll at 27.5 is their ally. 

1 #Oregon #GoDucks

Projected 1. Barring a late season collapse, the #Ducks are in. Its just a matter of seeding now. They either have a bye as a Conference Champ or Autzen gets to be showcased as a playoff destination. Both options should sound great to #Oregon fans. 

tl;dr:

The committee uses four criteria for ranking: Strength of Schedule, Quality Wins, Top 25 wins, and "Game Control."

Texas is ranked where we are due to our SOS of 60 and a Game Control number of 25.1. Hurt by lack of QWs and that six of our wins are teams that are currently .500 and most will likely finish that way. 

SEC teams behind us not named Georgia and Bama are hurt by their overall strength of schedule (turns out scheduling trash OOC teams means something - UGA and Bama rewarded for scheduling P4 OOC games).

UGA hurt by game control number of 12.3 (hello Kentucky and Florida games). 

I think what the writer describes as "game control" is the ESPN creation that they use in their own calculation of relative team strength. That is not the same thing that the CFP committee uses which, as far as I know, has no clear definition.  However they look at it, that metric has to be a big plus for Texas. Other than the UGA game Texas has only trailed against OU (3-0) for about 2 minutes and Vandy (7-0) for about 5 minutes. 

I am almost positive we have never been behind after the 1st quarter outside of UGA.  

[Steelers Roll Left 1167]

4 hours ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 
On Klatt’s podcast, he noted that the best thing for the SEC is for:

1. ND to lose and open up another at large spot. 
2. Texas to beat TAMU to get the number of 2-loss or fewer SEC teams to five, to avoid protracted hair splitting debate. 

Heard Klatt on Cowherd today making the case that one or two 2-loss SEC teams could be a surprise leave-out of the final CFP, using Texas as a prime example on the basis that their best victory is Vanderbilt.  Felt like he thinks Texas needs another significant win.  

[Rockethorn1978 6072]

Texas just needs to win. They do and they’re easily a top 3 seed. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 12179]

22 hours ago, westexhorn said:

7-3 in the 3rd qtr Aggies vs NM St?

Yes. It was comically close before the 4th quarter. I don't remember the exact score but it was low. Like, embarrassingly low before they pulled away. Those clowns aren't beating anyone with a pulse. LSU sucks and we're about to land 5 star former commit, Kade Phillips again, and Mizzou has been a running joke all season. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 12179]

22 hours ago, westexhorn said:

7-3 in the 3rd qtr Aggies vs NM St?

 

22 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

If you ignore the first half,still wrong but closer?

 

22 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Forget it, he's rolling.

OK, OK, you know I'm retarded. What's it to you?

[Funk Doctor Spock 12179]

11 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

My gf is 50. I think they're pretty perky. 😁

 

[BigHornedLurker 1935]

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Hopefully Sankey has a little talk with the stripes

BOMC gonna go Brrrrr during the coarse of that game. 

[MrX 728]

11-1 Texas that wins the SEC regular season is going into the playoffs win or lose the SEC title game.  The overall résumé will look fine. 
 

10-2 Texas that fucks up one of these last two games will be on the bubble and deservedly so.  Seems like all the talking heads are freaking out but making these basic points. 

[statsman 5453]

13 hours ago, Hank_Hill said:

There’s 6 other one loss teams ahead of them what are they salty about Texas for?

It’s a long story. There are only a few SMU football fans that hung around since the 1980’s. They repeat a tale of their Death Penalty woes as being due to Texas (it’s not true, but Texas was the program they were aiming at, at the time). That has become a theme on their message board- big, bad Texas trying to hold them down, stealing what is rightfully theirs. 
 
I know the response from Texas is “Who? What?”

[dcar00 14157]

So Ole Miss losses are because of "SEC MeatGrinder" but our wins are because "Easy SEC schedule".

[Hayduke 85]

15 hours ago, statsman said:

I checked out theSMU ON3 board. They are very salty about Texas. 
 

Lil ol' private school in the heart of fancy Dallas whose best years were based on throwing illegal money around to ED and CJK5H? Salty about the big state school just down the road, the poors who suddenly became new money because of oil discoveries on PUF land 100 years ago?  Who since, under everyone else's watchful eyes, have built a campus and football program with a history and promise second to none? 

That's a real head-scratcher. You'd think those Dallas high-society types would be pleased that a little investment and hard work paid off for their no-longer-country cousins. Not our fault we had to move to a bigger neighborhood to maintain our business and social ties.

['stache 21797]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

I know the response from Texas is “Who? What?”

And yet you’re lurking their message boards in pursuit of a narrative. The “big bad Texas” mystique from all directions is because UT is “the Joneses,” Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys, the team everyone loves to hate. The specific complaints are just filling between the lines. I’d just embrace it already.

Anyway, it was before my time, but I always thought aggy was their primary beef back then ala Dickerson with each blaming the other for turning them in to the NCAA. My guess is the SWC left behinds like SMU would be madder at UT for killing the conference not NCAA shit. SMU was definitely cheating their asses off, not sure there’s any legitimate belief otherwise.

Edited 6 hours ago by 'stache

[South Austin 52456]

Should we pay Mack Brown a "consulting fee" to lobby for Texas to make the playoffs at halftime of the SEC championship game, just to be safe?

[chainsaw 9859]

1 hour ago, statsman said:

big, bad Texas trying to hold them down,

They'd have two losses if Manny Diaz hadn't tried to be a galaxy brain

[Not a cat 5652]

11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Should we pay Mack Brown a "consulting fee" to lobby for Texas to make the playoffs at halftime of the SEC championship game, just to be safe?

[Hayduke 85]

26 minutes ago, 'stache said:

And yet you’re lurking their message boards in pursuit of a narrative. The “big bad Texas” mystique from all directions is because UT is “the Joneses,” Yankees, Lakers, Cowboys, the team everyone loves to hate. The specific complaints are just filling between the lines. I’d just embrace it already.

Anyway, it was before my time, but I always thought aggy was their primary beef back then ala Dickerson with each blaming the other for turning them in to the NCAA. My guess is the SWC left behinds like SMU would be madder at UT for killing the conference not NCAA shit. SMU was definitely cheating their asses off, not sure there’s any legitimate belief otherwise.

There were more subplots than a soap opera back then. Everybody hated everybody and almost nobody but Rice escaped the ban hammer. SMU and A&M were the worst, and I still contend that the main reason A&M didn't get the death penalty as well was because it would have slammed Bryan-College Station's economy. I still have a copy of that NCAA report laying around somewhere -- was working at A&M at the time and we got the report.

But Houston and TCU were right up there, and those guys would have killed the conference even if the new TV alliances weren't already pulling things apart. When Texas got probation for Marcus Dupree's who's-to-blame boots and Eric Metcalf's ride across campus (among other piddly stuff), that may have sealed the deal. 

Still, it made for some epic football. Miss those days for the playing environment, but I think I'll miss the old Big XII more. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Hayduke

[Js1 85289]

8 minutes ago, Hayduke said:

it would have slammed Bryan-College Station's economy

Yeah that would have been a real shame...

[chainsaw 9859]

2 minutes ago, Hayduke said:

There were more subplots than a soap opera back then. Everybody hated everybody and almost nobody but Rice escaped the ban hammer. SMU and A&M were the worst, and I still contend that the main reason A&M didn't get the death penalty as well was because it would have slammed Bryan-College Station's economy.

But Houston and TCU were right up there, and those guys would have killed the conference even if the new TV alliances weren't already pulling things apart. When Texas got probation for Marcus Dupree's who's-to-blame boots and Eric Metcalf's ride across campus (among other piddly stuff), that may have sealed the deal. 

Still, it made for some epic football. Miss those days for the playing environment, but I think I'll miss the old Big XII more. 

I'll be honest, I am finding the post-apocalypse Big XII highly entertaining. They combined the lower-brow Pac teams (but not, like, Wazzu low) with the Hateful Eight with some G5 occasional overachievers (BYU, Cincy, UCF, Houston) and the result has been absolute madness.

[utee94 15808]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'll be honest, I am finding the post-apocalypse Big XII highly entertaining. They combined the lower-brow Pac teams (but not, like, Wazzu low) with the Hateful Eight with some G5 occasional overachievers (BYU, Cincy, UCF, Houston) and the result has been absolute madness.

Agree, B12 has been fun to watch this season.  It always was. 

[Hayduke 85]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'll be honest, I am finding the post-apocalypse Big XII highly entertaining. They combined the lower-brow Pac teams (but not, like, Wazzu low) with the Hateful Eight with some G5 occasional overachievers (BYU, Cincy, UCF, Houston) and the result has been absolute madness.

I thought I was going to find it a lot more entertaining, but our absence from it has kept me from watching much. Probably has more to do with where my head is with life in general right now -- sometimes there's too much going on and the bandwidth has to go somewhere else.

But I would have loved road trips to Colorado, Arizona and Utah. That's a hell of a Plains/Near West conference with tremendous historic and geographical appeal. And a Texas-Colorado matchup with Neon Deion would be epic.

[Hayduke 85]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah that would have been a real shame...

Lived there 14 years and have no great love for the area, but personally, I would not have relished having to work so hard to find a good place to eat.

Still have family and a few good friends there. Most are probably 2 percenters, and they always made it more bearable. I definitely sang Mac Davis with a B-CS twist when I drove out of there with our U-Haul back in 2002 -- even if I was moving to Manhattan.