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2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #3 /#3 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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1 minute ago, ztejas said:

I think teams with permanent big program OOC rivals should get a little credit, too. USC/ND, SCAR/Clemson, FSU/Florida off the top of my head. 

I’ll give you USC. Having LSU & ND ooc is legit. Even ND makes sure they have a few marquee games on top of the shit they pack in there. 

The other ones, they definitely get some credit for sure. But those games mean shit often enough that they go into that 3rd group with LSU. 

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42 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think committees do a decent job, when it's the march madness bracket. I'm only upset if a team that clearly belongs in the conversation for #1 gets left out. I don't feel so bad about BYU, Boise, or any two-loss P4 being left out of the playoffs because they never would have had a chance in the BCS or 4-team CFP days.

What kind of logic is this? The system was horribly exclusive and unfair before, so if it's still unfair, just a little less so, then so what? Football is a game of direct competition, why are we having biased judges scoring for access? Let teams settle it on the field and come up with the most unbiased system possible for access. 

judging_scores.jpg

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47 minutes ago, Magus Ossis said:

Wasn't the old BCS "formula" really just a composite of the human polls with an average of the more popular computer algorithms as an add-on?

Not at first. But after Oklahoma lost in the Big12 championship to K state but still went to the National championship game they changed it to use the polls or something

Before that it was a computer formula or something.

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1 hour ago, Crockett said:

What kind of logic is this? The system was horribly exclusive and unfair before, so if it's still unfair, just a little less so, then so what? Football is a game of direct competition, why are we having biased judges scoring for access? Let teams settle it on the field and come up with the most unbiased system possible for access. 

judging_scores.jpg

BYU and Boise aren't undefeated. G5s with 1+ loss and weak conference runner-ups (whether P4 or G5) have never had a legitimate claim to the chance at winning a national championship. Leaving them out of the playoff is kind of like failing to nominate a good (but not Oscar-worthy) acting performance in a year when there's two or three clearly better, clearly Oscar-caliber performances in that category.

This is not a 2004-2005 Auburn situation, nor is it like any of the other famous snubs that cast doubt on who the best team in college football was at the end of the season.

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

yeah, I like our scheduling philosophy.  If we move to 9 game SEC schedule, we should continue to schedule: 

1 major P4 program
1 in-state G5 school (either within our system or Rice)
1 nearby G5 school

I’m totally on board with this, and I’d be in favor of playing one of the 2 OOC chump games in November like the rest of this conference does. Not only does it give you an almost bye week at a time when most of the team is at least a little banged up, but it reduces the number of September swelter games we have to endure. If one of those games get replaced by an SEC game early on, at least every other year it won’t be in Austin…

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14 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Notre Dame is required to play a certain number of ACC schools every year, and that in itself will tank your SOS.

 

12 hours ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Unfortunately, these schedules are made so far in advance you don’t anticipate Michigan sucking ass when you signed the contract 8 years ago (or Florida State in ND’s case- although they do get a break with aggy and real army actually being good).

It's random like anything else.  It looked like our ACC draw was awful this year, then GTech and UL beat Miami and Clemson.  

 

I remember the original BCS had an objective strength of schedule component.  They dropped it because SC got punished for their weak schedule.  Specifically our collapse kept them out of the 2003 season BCSCG.

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19 hours ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Unfortunately, these schedules are made so far in advance you don’t anticipate Michigan sucking ass when you signed the contract 8 years ago (or Florida State in ND’s case- although they do get a break with aggy and real army actually being good).

Just stop.....Fuck ND....those candy asses NEVER deserve  break! The only reason they ever schedule anyone with a pulse is for the payday.....then before the game they do all that Da Vinci code bullshit down in the basement to prevent them bringing their "a" game.

 

 

 

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On 11/21/2024 at 10:31 AM, NorthLoop said:

Let's not pretend Dinich is good either. She's trash. All of her research and hot takes are just her repeating whatever Paw says. 

dinich is now part of the bristolscape but she appeared out of nowhere as a designated expert with zero cred to support the anointing

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22 hours ago, Js1 said:

TeXaS pLaYs NoBoDy

 

In the top 12, Texas would rank 7th in SOS, closer to Penn State than Oregon is to us. 

Can the internet and the committee start bitching about Oregon and Notre Dame and Miami and Boise instead? 

"pedder is texas" works

it shuts down anyone anywhere

if we're at risk, why isn't pedder?

pedder has 1 loss to a top-10 team

texas has 1 loss to a top-10 team

same SoS as Texas

Texas has destroyed the opponent in 7 of our 9 wins (4 P4, 3 G5)

pedder has destroyed the opponent in 3 of their 9 wins (2 P4, 1 G5)

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22 hours ago, Js1 said:

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

yes, Js1, but texas has *ALWAYS* known that 0u sucks

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41 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

"pedder is texas" works

it shuts down anyone anywhere

if we're at risk, why isn't pedder?

pedder has 1 loss to a top-10 team

texas has 1 loss to a top-10 team

same SoS as Texas

Texas has destroyed the opponent in 7 of our 9 wins (4 P4, 3 G5)

pedder has destroyed the opponent in 3 of their 9 wins (2 P4, 1 G5)

Texas is not at risk with one loss. Not even a little bit. And neither is Penn state with 1 loss. I’m also counting Texas with a second loss coming in the sec championship game in that. Texas with a loss to aggy is at risk, psu with a loss to Minnesota is probably out. 

The committee has shown that the number of losses a team has is the first criteria. Then all of the other factors like quality wins and strength of schedule come into play. 

The talking heads and fans of 2 loss sec teams are taking the approach of just ranking teams based on the eye test in their biggest game. That allows the 2 loss teams to ignore their multiple losses, their bad losses, the shit ooc games in November. It all comes down to how good is your best win and nothing else, because then they’d have to accept that one of the 2 loss sec teams is going to be left out, and there are arguments for all of them to be left out. 

If the chalk holds, the only decision beyond seeding is 1 loss Indiana vs 2 loss Tennessee. 

Edited by heso
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20 hours ago, heso said:

It’s not even up for debate that Texas approaches ooc scheduling with more integrity than any other school. They want a ooc game against a national championship contender every year. The second tier after them includes bama, Ohio state, and Michigan. LSU is a small step behind them. Everyone else can get fucked. 

i say we go one better than aggy and invent the "helmet school win metric"

here's the list of wins for current P4, ancient ivy not included (number in brackets are AP/BCS+AP national titles)

1009 michigan (3)

973 alabama (12)

973 ohio state (5)

957 texas (3)

957 notre dame (8)

949 oklahoma (7)

939 penn state (2)

922 nebraska (4)

889 georgia (3)

880 usc (5)

873 tenneessee (2)

---

812 lsu (3)

806 clemson (3)

803 auburn (2)

786 west virginia (0)

786 aggy (1)

---

768 pitt (2)

763 florida (3)

750 syracuse (1)

739 minnesota (4)

736 army (2)

734 michigan state (1)

731 colorado (1)

691 tcu (1)

681 maryland (1)

672 miami (5)

617 byu (1)

588 florida state (3)

 

there is a clear gap between #11 and #12 on the all-time wins list

21st century fans of lsu & clemson will obviously consider themselves helmet schools & they each have an AP title from the 20th century so whether they are in or out can be debated

however auburn, west virginia and aggy are obviously not helmet schools

 

tennessee is an interesting case

not a helmet school to me but they are the cutoff based on all-time wins

the list is neither a clean top 10 nor a top 12

 

the final bucket is teams way down the list of total wins but with at least 1 title

since aggy are clearly not a helmet school, inclusion of those teams below them in wins becomes subjective: how many titles = helmet school?

 

i'm thinking 800 wins AND 2 AP/BCS titles OR 3 AP/BCS titles is the criteria but i'll have to see that that list looks like - minnesota a helmet school?

 

regardless, we have TWO (2) TOP TEN HELMET SCHOOL WINS this year, both away from home

put it on the wall

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26 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

i say we go one better than aggy and invent the "helmet school win metric"

here's the list of wins for current P4, ancient ivy not included (number in brackets are AP/BCS+AP national titles)

1009 michigan (3)

973 alabama (12)

973 ohio state (5)

957 texas (3)

957 notre dame (8)

949 oklahoma (7)

939 penn state (2)

922 nebraska (4)

889 georgia (3)

880 usc (5)

873 tenneessee (2)

---

812 lsu (3)

806 clemson (3)

803 auburn (2)

786 west virginia (0)

786 aggy (1)

---

768 pitt (2)

763 florida (3)

750 syracuse (1)

739 minnesota (4)

736 army (2)

734 michigan state (1)

731 colorado (1)

691 tcu (1)

681 maryland (1)

672 miami (5)

617 byu (1)

588 florida state (3)

 

there is a clear gap between #11 and #12 on the all-time wins list

21st century fans of lsu & clemson will obviously consider themselves helmet schools & they each have an AP title from the 20th century so whether they are in or out can be debated

however auburn, west virginia and aggy are obviously not helmet schools

 

tennessee is an interesting case

not a helmet school to me but they are the cutoff based on all-time wins

the list is neither a clean top 10 nor a top 12

 

the final bucket is teams way down the list of total wins but with at least 1 title

since aggy are clearly not a helmet school, inclusion of those teams below them in wins becomes subjective: how many titles = helmet school?

 

i'm thinking 800 wins AND 2 AP/BCS titles OR 3 AP/BCS titles is the criteria but i'll have to see that that list looks like - minnesota a helmet school?

 

regardless, we have TWO (2) TOP TEN HELMET SCHOOL WINS this year, both away from home

put it on the wall

Given that the UPI and later the Coach's Poll were both legitimate awarders of national titles in contemporaneous manners, your exclusion of them here makes the entire effort futile. 

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11 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Dang, I just realized that all of the P4 conferences could have newbs as this year's conference champs. Yeah, I'm sure most of yoiu already realized that, but damn, it's pretty crazy.

BIG: Oregon

SEC: Texas

XII: Colorado

ACC: SMU

I’d be all for this (for obvious reasons) 🤘🏼

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1 hour ago, heso said:

Texas is not at risk with one loss. Not even a little bit. And neither is Penn state with 1 loss. I’m also counting Texas with a second loss coming in the sec championship game in that. Texas with a loss to aggy is at risk, psu with a loss to Minnesota is probably out. 

The committee has shown that the number of losses a team has is the first criteria. Then all of the other factors like quality wins and strength of schedule come into play. 

The talking heads and fans of 2 loss sec teams are taking the approach of just ranking teams based on the eye test in their biggest game. That allows the 2 loss teams to ignore their multiple losses, their bad losses, the shit ooc games in November. It all comes down to how good is your best win and nothing else, because then they’d have to accept that one of the 2 loss sec teams is going to be left out, and there are arguments for all of them to be left out. 

If the chalk holds, the only decision beyond seeding is 1 loss Indiana vs 2 loss Tennessee. 

Of course not.  That means we would have won the SEC Championship and are automatic qualifiers.

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All this is fun...but if Texas beats Aggy they're getting in the playoffs.  Full Stop.

 

What I want them to chance about the CFP is the seedings. Yes the top 5 Conference Champs SHOULD get in.  I have no problem with one spot going to a G5 team having an amazing year and giving them a chance.

But this "automatic Top 4 seeds" shit needs to go.

There is NO WAY the 8th ranked team or the 10-11th ranked teams with 2-3 losses should be handed the 3/4 seeds over a bunch of 1 loss teams or much better 2 loss teams.

You can use conference champion as a tie breaker for two similar teams, but not just slot them in IMO.

We should have Miami/SMU or Colorado/AZ ST getting byes and hosting games against Ohio ST and Texas.

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42 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Given that the UPI and later the Coach's Poll were both legitimate awarders of national titles in contemporaneous manners, your exclusion of them here makes the entire effort futile. 

I disagree.  The chaos goes beyond the UPI and Coach's Poll:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_football_national_championships_in_NCAA_Division_I_FBS

The only constant since 1936 is the AP.

My exclusion of everything else renders the entire effort precise and scientific, once the selection criteria is agreed upon.

 

Since you demarcated the UPI and Coach's Polls as the disruptors, lets examine your postulate.

Note that the UPI Poll became the Coach's Poll in 1991 when USA Today took over the poll.

 

Here is the list of split titles between the AP and UPI/Coach's polls since 1936:

1970 Nebraska was first in the AP poll, but third in the coaches poll, while Texas was first in the coaches poll and third in the AP poll.

1973 Notre Dame was first in the AP poll, but fourth in the coaches poll, while Alabama was first in the coaches poll and fourth in the AP poll. 

1974 Oklahoma was first in the AP poll, but unranked in the coaches poll, while USC was first in the coaches poll and second in the AP poll. 

1978 Alabama was first in the AP poll, but second in the coaches poll, while USC was first in the coaches poll and second in the AP poll. 

1990 Colorado was first in the AP poll, but second in the coaches poll, while Georgia Tech was first in the coaches poll and second in the AP poll. 

1997 Michigan was first in the AP poll, but Nebraska was first in the coaches poll. 

 

To satisfy the CTJ Doctrine of Truth, we shall subtract .5 for the AP winner in all the split years and add .5 of a natty the UPI/Coaches winner from split years.

Doing so, the math now looks like this:

 

here's the list of wins for fbs with ancient ivy not included

number in brackets is tallied based on AP/BCS+AP/UPI+Coaches national titles are not split having a value of 1, split titles having a value of .5

1009 michigan (2.5)

973 alabama (12)

973 ohio state (5)

957 texas (3.5)

957 notre dame (7.5)

949 oklahoma (6.5)

939 penn state (2)

922 nebraska (4)

889 georgia (3)

880 usc (6)

873 tenneessee (2)

---

812 lsu (3)

806 clemson (3)

803 auburn (2)

786 west virginia (0)

786 aggy (1)

---

768 pitt (2)

763 florida (3)

761 georgia tech (.5)

750 syracuse (1)

739 minnesota (4)

736 army (2)

734 michigan state (1)

731 colorado (.5)

691 tcu (1)

681 maryland (1)

672 miami (5)

617 byu (1)

588 florida state (3)

 

with the satisfaction of CTJ's Doctrine of Truth, the remainder of the content from my original post remains unchallenged

 

there is a clear gap between #11 and #12 on the all-time wins list

21st century fans of lsu & clemson will obviously consider themselves helmet schools & they each have an AP title from the 20th century so whether they are in or out can be debated

however auburn, west virginia and aggy are obviously not helmet schools

 

tennessee is an interesting case

not a helmet school to me but they are the cutoff based on all-time wins

the list is neither a clean top 10 nor a top 12

 

the final bucket is teams way down the list of total wins but with at least 1 title

since aggy are clearly not a helmet school, inclusion of those teams below them in wins becomes subjective: how many titles = helmet school?

 

i'm thinking 800 wins AND 2 AP/BCS titles OR 3 AP/BCS titles is the criteria but i'll have to see that that list looks like - minnesota a helmet school?

 

regardless, we have TWO (2) TOP TEN HELMET SCHOOL WINS this year, both away from home

put it on the wall

 

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great breakdown on SOR based on a concept of 'quads' or 'quadrents' of team rankings instead of an arbitrary top 25

 

https://old.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/1gxdmpx/quad_wins_for_cfp_ranked_teams/

 

Quadrant definitions

Quadrant Rating Rk - Home Rk - Neutral Rk - Away
Quad 1 >=13.0 1-14 1-17 1-27
Quad 2 6.5-13.0 14-28 18-41 28-55
Quad 3 -2.5-6.5 29-65 42-73 56-88
Quad 4 <-2.5 66-134 74-134 89-134

Quad W/L by team

CFP Rk Team Record Quad 1 Quad 2 Quad 3 Quad 4
1 Oregon 11-0 1-0 2-0 3-0 4-0
2 Ohio State 9-1 2-1 0-0 2-0 5-0
3 Texas 9-1 0-1 4-0 1-0 4-0
4 Penn State 9-1 0-1 1-0 4-0 4-0
5 Indiana 10-0 0-0 1-0 3-0 5-0
6 Notre Dame 9-1 1-0 2-0 2-0 4-1
7 Alabama 8-2 3-1 1-0 2-1 1-0
8 Miami 9-1 0-0 4-0 1-1 3-0
9 Ole Miss 8-2 2-0 2-2 0-0 3-0
10 Georgia 8-2 3-2 2-0 1-0 1-0
11 Tennessee 8-2 1-1 3-1 1-0 2-0
12 Boise State 9-1 0-1 0-0 2-0 6-0
13 SMU 8-1 0-0 3-1 2-0 3-0
14 BYU 9-1 1-0 1-0 5-1 1-0
15 Texas A&M 8-2 1-2 2-0 1-0 3-0
16 Colorado 8-2 0-0 0-1 6-1 1-0
17 Clemson 8-2 0-1 2-1 2-0 4-0
18 South Carolina 7-3 2-2 2-1 1-0 2-0
19 Army 9-0 0-0 0-0 0-0 8-0
20 Tulane 9-2 0-0 0-2 2-0 6-0
21 Arizona State 8-2 0-0 1-0 5-2 2-0
22 Iowa State 8-2 1-0 0-1 4-1 2-0
23 Missouri 7-3 0-3 2-0 2-0 2-0
24 UNLV 8-2 0-0 1-1 0-1 6-0
25 Illinois 7-3 0-2 1-1 2-0 3-0
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Really, rather than "Biggest Tites" we should rank by "Best Tites".

To keep discussions going strong, there should be no clear definition of what actually constitutes "best".

Additional parameters could be brought into play, such as protrusion, roundness, cup size, nipple location and/or size and/or color, firmness, et cetera.

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3 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Really, rather than "Biggest Tites" we should rank by "Best Tites".

To keep discussions going strong, there should be no clear definition of what actually constitutes "best".

Additional parameters could be brought into play, such as protrusion, roundness, cup size, nipple location and/or size and/or color, firmness, et cetera.

"Visibility" works for me.  Hey to me as a college freshman.

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3 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

"pedder is texas" works

it shuts down anyone anywhere

if we're at risk, why isn't pedder?

pedder has 1 loss to a top-10 team

texas has 1 loss to a top-10 team

same SoS as Texas

Texas has destroyed the opponent in 7 of our 9 wins (4 P4, 3 G5)

pedder has destroyed the opponent in 3 of their 9 wins (2 P4, 1 G5)

The one thing that's really irking me, right now, is that Penn State and or IU are heavy favorites to get the semi prestigious fifth seed, without having beaten anybody.

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1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

Since you demarcated the UPI and Coach's Polls as the disruptors, lets examine your postulate.

Note that the UPI Poll became the Coach's Poll in 1991 when USA Today took over the pol

 

Huh?  UPI is the coaches' poll.  Only the name/sponsor changed in 1990.  It's still the coaches' poll, and has been since 1950.

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3 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Heather Dinich isn't some newbie getting airtime because she's a somewhat decent-looking woman. She was a student journalist at Indiana when Bobby Knight's last scandal broke out. He tried to use and bully her and she held her ground and published the truth in the student newspaper, which launched her career. She then built a career doing that kind of digging and sticking to her knitting. 

Y'all running over Dinich and Auerbach as bad reporters who are only getting on camera due to looks or DEI or whatever are being reductive and lazy.

Saying she has pancake tiddys is hardly reductive. 

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23 minutes ago, notre dame joe said:

The one thing that's really irking me, right now, is that Penn State and or IU are heavy favorites to get the semi prestigious fifth seed, without having beaten anybody.

Neither will actually get the 5 seed unless it’s IU after beating osu & losing to Oregon in the championship game. The 5 seed will go to b1g championship game loser, the 6 seed will go to texas if they lose the sec championship game or psu if texas wins the sec because they and ND would be the only ones left with only 1 loss, and PSUs loss not being a bad loss. ND/3 loss sec championship loser get 7 & 8. 

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16 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

The one thing that's really irking me, right now, is that Penn State and or IU are heavy favorites to get the semi prestigious fifth seed, without having beaten anybody.

What are you talking about? tOSU and Oregon are the heavy favorites for the 5 seed. Penn State doesn’t really have any shot at it, and IU will only be the favorite if they beat tOSU and go 12-0, in which case they’d deserve it. 

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weird bowl matchups are now more possible than ever

corndog has given the cajuns 3 games this century, all in redstick, outscoring them 124 -6

they played 19 times between 1902 and 1938

louisiana state is 22-0 against louisiana

i don't know if they can be matched up or if snakey would allow it but it might be a fair fight this year and watching kelly coach this game would be must-see

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No more Indiana talk after this

no more pedo state either

the big10 is trash

1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

Indy just played way into CFP... good 1st half.

Need an upset in B10 or else they get 4 teams in -- maybe Penn State loses to Minnesota???

lol it’s 28-7

they don’t pass the eye test or the body of work test

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