2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#4 (CFP/AP/Coaches)

[Pimphand 6,233]

15 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Going to be honest the BCS poll looks superior 

We always should have kept the BCS rankings it just sucked some years and picking 2 vs 3 but the amount of grievances you have once you are > 10 is really just pointless anyways but it is orders of magnitude better than the stupid committee running a 100% opaque bias riddled piece of shit process.

[BurntOrange&White 41,356]

3 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

We always should have kept the BCS rankings it just sucked some years and picking 2 vs 3 but the amount of grievances you have once you are > 10 is really just pointless anyways but it is orders of magnitude better than the stupid committee running a 100% opaque bias riddled piece of shit process.

I am convinced that the CFP uses the BCS formula to create their rankings. Instead of using AP/Coaches poll they each do their own rankings and use that for the human element. It makes no sense that they had to create this committee full of subjective people to create rankings when the BCS system worked, technically, but would be even better in a 4+ team playoff vs just picking two teams.

Edited November 14 by BurntOrange&White

[cmontexas 3,318]

15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Interesting thread:

 

 

What an insanely melodramatic take. Is that what the committee did last season when then put two different 1 loss teams into the playoff ahead of undefeated FSU?

[BurntOrange&White 41,356]

1 minute ago, cmontexas said:

What an insanely melodramatic take. Is that what the committee did last season when then put two different 1 loss teams into the playoff ahead of undefeated FSU?

They had to put those teams in....if you read the entire thread you'd see their premise. 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 3,496]

You are what your resume says you are- which includes your overall record, conference record, quality wins/losses, margin of victory/defeat, and everyone’s favorite the good ol “eye test.”

Yes, sure Georgia has some nice ranked wins, but also has two ranked losses in watch they looked like warmed over dogshit for most of both games. They have also looked awful in a couple of games against terrible opponents (hi Florida and MSU). Inconsistent , uninspired, and undisciplined. Turnover machine.
 

Last I checked, losing games to top 25 ranked teams is still…losing football games. If the situation were reversed, nobody in the national media would give a fuck if Texas was the one getting “screwed,” so fuck em. We got fucked in the ass in 2008 with the best resume I’ve ever seen. “Should have won all your games” they said.

Hope Georgia loses another one to Tennessee this week so they can keep crying about their low ranking and top 25 wins while being saddled with and ignoring their 3 conference losses which would put them in the bottom half of the SEC.

Edited November 14 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[D3zii 3,906]

Is crazy how we’re the number 2 team in the playoffs right now but with 1 loss these last three games we can go from lock to 1st team out with two losses. 
 

Hope we play loose and not tight!! 

[The Dog 44,636]

The only reason to release early rankings is to create drama.

It's working.

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,585]

1 hour ago, cmontexas said:

What an insanely melodramatic take. Is that what the committee did last season when then put two different 1 loss teams into the playoff ahead of undefeated FSU?

FSU wouldve been in if Travis didnt get hurt though. So your point isnt really valid. 

[El Hornarino 377]

Massey Composite Dec 3, 2023

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Florida State

Reminded me of 2014 when undefeated FSU skated through an easy ACC schedule, was also 7th in the composite IIRC, then was pounded by 39 points in the semi-final.

 

[jimmyjazz 46,755]

30 minutes ago, El Hornarino said:

Massey Composite Dec 3, 2023

Did Massey fudge his calcs for injury?  It's been a long time since I've paid attention to the various "objective" ranking schemes.

[Huckleberry 34,174]

No, FSU was not that great last year but obviously losing Travis made them even worse. They were top 10 quality with him but looked like a damn bottom 10 team without him. 

Even with Daniels's rookie performance I still might give Travis the hindsight Heisman. Which was obviously created in January of 2006 for all the idiots who messed that one up (hi Bohls!).

Also, the composite is not Massey's rating. It averages dozens of systems. 

Edited November 14 by Huckleberry

[JBJ 3,761]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

I mean, it's basically what Stewart Mandel said earlier this week.

And yes, we are benefiting from the committee ignoring SOR and just looking at record.   The committee will do whatever they want, and justify whatever they do, but they are, as usual, giving deferential treatment to preseason rankings, which is why they should not exist until week 5 or 6. 

BYU: No. 2(!) SOR, No. 6 CFP

Indiana: No. 6 SOR, No. 5 CFP

Texas: No. 10 SOR, No. 3 CFP

Penn State: No. 5 SOR, No. 4 CFP

Tennessee: No. 9 SOR, No. 7 CFP

Notre Dame: No. 13 SOR, No. 8 CFP

Georgia: No, 3(!) SOR, No. 12 CFP

Miami: No. 7 SOR, No. 9 CFP

The issue here is thinking the CFP Committee cared so heavily about SOR (or using janky SOR analytics - UGA at number 3?)

----

This my simulated CFP Top 25

BYU: No. 12 sim, No. 6 CFP

Indiana: No. 3 sim, No. 5 CFP

Texas: No. 4 sim, No. 3 CFP

Penn State: No. 5 sim, No. 4 CFP

Tennessee: No. 9 sim, No. 7 CFP

Notre Dame: No. 6 sim, No. 8 CFP

Georgia: No, 11 sim, No. 12 CFP

Miami: No. 8 sim, No. 9 CFP

-----

BYU is the only outlier and it's for being overrated, not underrated.

Edited November 14 by JBJ

[Crockett 515]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

BYU: No. 2(!) SOR, No. 6 CFP

Edited November 14 by Crockett

[Burt Macklin 19,197]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

I mean, it's basically what Stewart Mandel said earlier this week.

And yes, we are benefiting from the committee ignoring SOR and just looking at record.   The committee will do whatever they want, and justify whatever they do, but they are, as usual, giving deferential treatment to preseason rankings, which is why they should not exist until week 5 or 6. 

BYU: No. 2(!) SOR, No. 6 CFP

Indiana: No. 6 SOR, No. 5 CFP

Texas: No. 10 SOR, No. 3 CFP

Penn State: No. 5 SOR, No. 4 CFP

Tennessee: No. 9 SOR, No. 7 CFP

Notre Dame: No. 13 SOR, No. 8 CFP

Georgia: No, 3(!) SOR, No. 12 CFP

Miami: No. 7 SOR, No. 9 CFP

It’s really weird that you’re focusing so much on SOR when it’s primarily used as just a part of evaluating a team’s performance, not its own standalone metric. Why should the committee overvalue strength of record while ignoring how well a team actually plays in those games? On top of that, their actual strength of schedule has been a joke. They’re around 70th in SOS in most metrics and that’s with SMU propping them up despite them playing SMU early when they were rotating QBs and were a drastically worse team than they are now. 

BYU has had a bunch of lucky outcomes against mediocre to bad teams to go undefeated. All their SOR really shows is they’ve been lucky this year. When you look at how they actually play in those games, it’s pretty obvious they’re not even remotely underrated at No. 6 and they’re actually pretty overrated there. 
Theyre 21st in FEI, 28th in FPI. Wanting them to be overrated even more because they’ve been lucky against a weak schedule makes no sense. 
 

 

Edited November 14 by Burt Macklin

[Hagbard Celine 11,111]

i am worried we are going to get dinged for wins over teams above .500

our performances against michigan and 0u were fantastic against at-the-time ranked teams but since both now suck it will cost us if we don't get to atlanta

this is where the dictum of NEVER wanting 0u or aggy to win under any circumstances really gets tested

0u sits at 5-5, off this week, then host gump who will still be in the race for a spot in atlanta, and finish @ corndog who as of today are also still in the running for atlanta, looks 5-7

meatchicken also sits at 5-5, also off this week, host northwestern and finish @ fosu, probably 6-6

colostate are 6-3 and should finish above .500

utsa are 4-5 with 3 left

ulm are 5-4 with 3 left (@ barn this week)

klan aggy are 2-8

vandy are 6-4, off this week, host corndog and finish @ tenn; vandy are probably finishing 6-6

gatah are 4-5, host corndog, host olemiss & finish @ noles; another likely 6-6 finish

pig will be 5-5 after losing on saturday, host latech & finish @ mizzery, again ANOTHER 6-6 finish

lube are 3-6, have murray state this week, a loss to us next week & finish hosting louisville, which is 6-6 or 5-7

that's only 1 for certain (colostate)

 

things that would be nice:

vandy to upset either lsu or tennessee or both

gatah to upset either lsu or olemiss or both

pig to upset mizzery

 

each of those likely gets us a win over a team that finishes above .500 and boosts our SoS

 

obligatory: beat pig

[Crockett 515]

36 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

BYU has had a bunch of lucky outcomes

I prefer to call it resiliency, never-say-die, the new king of the B12 taking everybody's best shot.

[Hagbard Celine 11,111]

hosting chalk saturday night will have 100k extra viewers watching to see how yormark protects your undefeated record

[Huckleberry 34,174]

23 minutes ago, Crockett said:

I prefer to call it resiliency, never-say-die, the new king of the B12 taking everybody's best shot.

And you should. This is the issue with rankings being released every week. All season long we talk about how good teams really are and that makes sense. That's predictive rating. But at the end of the season when it's all done and they're setting the playoff that should be about what you've actually done. Any undefeated team absolutely should be given every benefit of the doubt. 

I am well aware that after Travis went down FSU was nowhere near a top 4 team last year. I said as much at the time. But I still would have put them in the playoff and yes I know what's happened since then. The entire point of the playoff is letting things get proven on the field. Sure we all THINK some teams aren't good. But if nobody has beaten them and they have anything near a respectable schedule (read: not 2023 Liberty) then it hasn't been proven. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4,970]

39 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

0u sits at 5-5, off this week, then host gump who will still be in the race for a spot in atlanta, and finish @ corndog who as of today are also still in the running for atlanta, looks 5-7

meatchicken also sits at 5-5, also off this week, host northwestern and finish @ fosu, probably 6-6

colostate are 6-3 and should finish above .500

utsa are 4-5 with 3 left

ulm are 5-4 with 3 left (@ barn this week)

klan aggy are 2-8

vandy are 6-4, off this week, host corndog and finish @ tenn; vandy are probably finishing 6-6

gatah are 4-5, host corndog, host olemiss & finish @ noles; another likely 6-6 finish

pig will be 5-5 after losing on saturday, host latech & finish @ mizzery, again ANOTHER 6-6 finish

lube are 3-6, have murray state this week, a loss to us next week & finish hosting louisville, which is 6-6 or 5-7

that's only 1 for certain (colostate)

 

[Park Gothic 5,285]

25 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I am well aware that after Travis went down FSU was nowhere near a top 4 team last year. I said as much at the time. But I still would have put them in the playoff and yes I know what's happened since then. The entire point of the playoff is letting things get proven on the field. Sure we all THINK some teams aren't good. But if nobody has beaten them and they have anything near a respectable schedule (read: not 2023 Liberty) then it hasn't been proven. 

100%. It wasn't even complicated. There were 3 undefeated P5 champs, so they all get in. There were 2 one-loss P5 champs, but they had a head-to-head, so the winner of the head-to-head gets the last spot. 

1) Michigan

2) Washington

3) FSU

4) Texas

Easy, reasonable, defensible, etc. So of course the committee didn't do that. Because it would require leaving the SEC out of the playoffs which is unthinkable. They had to jump through hoops to get an outcome that fit what they wanted to see rather than what made sense. 

It bothered me at the time but it also made me glad that we were moving to the SEC (among other reasons). Bias shouldn't be a part of the process, but as long as it's going to be a factor anyway I'd rather it be in our favor. 

[Js1 86,392]

12 minutes ago, Park Gothic said:

100%. It wasn't even complicated. There were 3 undefeated P5 champs, so they all get in. There were 2 one-loss P5 champs, but they had a head-to-head, so the winner of the head-to-head gets the last spot. 

1) Michigan

2) Washington

3) FSU

4) Texas

Easy, reasonable, defensible, etc. So of course the committee didn't do that. Because it would require leaving the SEC out of the playoffs which is unthinkable. They had to jump through hoops to get an outcome that fit what they wanted to see rather than what made sense. 

It bothered me at the time but it also made me glad that we were moving to the SEC (among other reasons). Bias shouldn't be a part of the process, but as long as it's going to be a factor anyway I'd rather it be in our favor. 

Well that and FSU was so banged up and shitty looking to end the year, the committee had to be terrified of a 25-30 point halftime margin between Michigan/FSU or Wash/FSU and all the eyeballs turning it off in the 2nd half. 

They got two one score semifinals, with one going to OT.  

[El Hornarino 377]

It was unthinkable to leave the SEC out.  History had proven that given enough mulligans, SEC teams had a good chance of winning 2 or 4 team tournaments.  Especially when they made up 50 or 100% of the field.

Edited November 14 by El Hornarino

[Hagbard Celine 11,111]

51 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

sorry

that's my style and has been for decades

[Js1 86,392]

6 minutes ago, El Hornarino said:

It was unthinkable to leave the SEC out.  History had proven that given enough mulligans, SEC teams had a good chance of winning 2 or 4 team tournaments.  Especially when they made up 50 or 100% of the field.

Oh no doubt.  And I think the committee secretly loved it - there was so much drama and speculation and conversation driven by having 5 potential teams for a 4 bid playoff.  

The SEC was never gonna get left out and, to back up the *kaching,* a competitive Alabama squad was going to drive more ratings compared to a flailing ACC team. 

[The Dog 44,636]

it didn't help that Louisville-FSU was one of the worst games in the history of football. 

 

[notre dame joe 201]

19 hours ago, Pimphand said:

We always should have kept the BCS rankings it just sucked some years and picking 2 vs 3 but the amount of grievances you have once you are > 10 is really just pointless anyways but it is orders of magnitude better than the stupid committee running a 100% opaque bias riddled piece of shit process.

To my knowledge the PC always followed the top 4 in the BCS Proxy, it would have always been the same final four.  The exception was last year as the BCS computers did not know Travis was out for FSU. 

17 hours ago, El Hornarino said:

Massey Composite Dec 3, 2023

1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Texas
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Florida State

Reminded me of 2014 when undefeated FSU skated through an easy ACC schedule, was also 7th in the composite IIRC, then was pounded by 39 points in the semi-final.

 

The 2014 Noles did not skate, they did a double axel over obstacles.  They were dead to rites in two games (at least), one of which required a bail out worse than last week's Holy War. 

[WBT 20,833]

18 hours ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

FSU wouldve been in if Travis didnt get hurt though. So your point isnt really valid. 

And leave out the secsecsec?  I doubt it.

[BurntOrange&White 41,356]

3 hours ago, notre dame joe said:

To my knowledge the PC always followed the top 4 in the BCS Proxy, it would have always been the same final four.  The exception was last year as the BCS computers did not know Travis was out for FSU. 

Correct.

[BurntOrange&White 41,356]

3 hours ago, WBT said:

And leave out the secsecsec?  I doubt it.

 

This was the final poll last year and final BCS standings.....

[Funk Doctor Spock 13,043]

On 11/12/2024 at 9:05 PM, Hook1997 said:

The playoff anger index from ESPN with SMU 2nd with a blind comparison to Texas…..   They reaching a bit. 

Other than Texas would take SMU to the woodshed by no less than what we did to Florida, sure. 

[52-80 19,363]

On 11/13/2024 at 4:05 AM, Hook1997 said:

The playoff anger index from ESPN with SMU 2nd with a blind comparison to Texas…..   They reaching a bit. 

barf.  This is a David Hale article, which always read like a cross between a twitter thread and a bad blog post.

that guy is like The Derel - just the absolute worst.

[The Dog 44,636]

[campcrunk 2,543]

On 11/13/2024 at 9:25 AM, cmontexas said:

Ohio State could also hilariously lose to Michigan

This would absolutely make my year but I just can't see if happening

[Ignatius 4,112]

Funny that in our first year in the conference where every game is like playing the ‘85 Bears and when we played the defending national champ on the road, our main concern is that we haven’t played anyone worth a fuck…

[heso 2,848]

The sec sets the schedule up specifically to maximize ranked teams at the end of the season.

Playing 8 conference games instead of 9 makes the whole league look marginally better in comparison to a conference that has 8 more losses. 

And they replace those conference games with absolute dog shit in November. Sec games in November:

Maine

UMass

NM St

Louisiana-Monroe

Murray St

Mercer

UMass again

UTEP

Wofford

Loisiana Tech

That some of you have bought into the idea that the sec cannibalises itself with its brutal conference schedule is laughable bullshit. 

Ole Miss lost to LSU and Kentucky, and they played a ooc schedule of Furman, middle Tennessee, wake, and Georgia southern. 

Ole Miss, A&M, SC, LSU, Missouri, could all have easily dropped an extra conference game and made the league as a whole look worse. 

Hell the winner (and loser) of this uga-tenn game get a pillow soft game next week. Tenn gets utep and uga plays umass. Instead of getting another conference game to follow up this game. 

There’s no clear cut top tier in the sec this year so for some of you the takeaway is “oh that must mean that everyone is awesome”.

s-e-c s-e-c s-e-c

[TrashMaster G 17,940]

1 hour ago, heso said:

The sec sets the schedule up specifically to maximize ranked teams at the end of the season.

Playing 8 conference games instead of 9 makes the whole league look marginally better in comparison to a conference that has 8 more losses. 

And they replace those conference games with absolute dog shit in November. Sec games in November:

Maine

UMass

NM St

Louisiana-Monroe

Murray St

Mercer

UMass again

UTEP

Wofford

Loisiana Tech

That some of you have bought into the idea that the sec cannibalises itself with its brutal conference schedule is laughable bullshit. 

Ole Miss lost to LSU and Kentucky, and they played a ooc schedule of Furman, middle Tennessee, wake, and Georgia southern. 

Ole Miss, A&M, SC, LSU, Missouri, could all have easily dropped an extra conference game and made the league as a whole look worse. 

Hell the winner (and loser) of this uga-tenn game get a pillow soft game next week. Tenn gets utep and uga plays umass. Instead of getting another conference game to follow up this game. 

There’s no clear cut top tier in the sec this year so for some of you the takeaway is “oh that must mean that everyone is awesome”.

s-e-c s-e-c s-e-c

I'm sorry, but where are these "everyone is awesome" posts you speak of?

I think most all around here are fully aware of the fuckery of the 8-game schedule and the Annual November Cupcake Parade.

[Hookem10 807]

1 hour ago, heso said:

The sec sets the schedule up specifically to maximize ranked teams at the end of the season.

Playing 8 conference games instead of 9 makes the whole league look marginally better in comparison to a conference that has 8 more losses. 

And they replace those conference games with absolute dog shit in November. Sec games in November:

Maine

UMass

NM St

Louisiana-Monroe

Murray St

Mercer

UMass again

UTEP

Wofford

Loisiana Tech

That some of you have bought into the idea that the sec cannibalises itself with its brutal conference schedule is laughable bullshit. 

Ole Miss lost to LSU and Kentucky, and they played a ooc schedule of Furman, middle Tennessee, wake, and Georgia southern. 

Ole Miss, A&M, SC, LSU, Missouri, could all have easily dropped an extra conference game and made the league as a whole look worse. 

Hell the winner (and loser) of this uga-tenn game get a pillow soft game next week. Tenn gets utep and uga plays umass. Instead of getting another conference game to follow up this game. 

There’s no clear cut top tier in the sec this year so for some of you the takeaway is “oh that must mean that everyone is awesome”.

s-e-c s-e-c s-e-c

We’re not buying the bullshit. We know it’s all bullshit.  The issue is we’re now part of the bullshit. And we’re not getting the benefit of the bullshit.  You digging the bullshit because espn is bullshit. 

[cmontexas 3,318]

It's been repeated ad nauseum how the 5 seed is the sweet spot in the 12 team format. I also posit the 2 seed may be preferable to the 1 seed because you avoid that vaunted 5 seed in the semis

[TrashMaster G 17,940]

6 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

It's been repeated ad nauseum how the 5 seed is the sweet spot in the 12 team format. I also posit the 2 seed may be preferable to the 1 seed because you avoid that vaunted 5 seed in the semis

Yes, assuming the committee plays it straight. I could easily see them swapping the 5 and 6 with a wink and a nod, however. 

[cmontexas 3,318]

Boise State's conference is absolute dogshit. They are going to face a horrible Colorado State team that somehow ran their conference slate in the CCG. Giving them the 4 seed ahead of 1 loss BYU or 2 loss Prime U is dumb

[UTexasFight 9,757]

17 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

It's been repeated ad nauseum how the 5 seed is the sweet spot in the 12 team format. I also posit the 2 seed may be preferable to the 1 seed because you avoid that vaunted 5 seed in the semis

Idk. Depends who you feel is the stronger runner up in the SEC and BIG.

whichever conference champion is the #1 seed, the other conference’s runner-up will be the 5.

and vice versa for the 2 and 6.

they aren’t going to risk a semi that could be the third time two teams have played. They’ll set it up where the only way that can happen is in the national championship. 

Edited November 17 by UTexasFight

[cmontexas 3,318]

The worst team in the Big 12, Oklahoma State would be favored by 2 touchdowns over the 2nd place team in the MW-Colorado State

[TXpride 574]

We have to win out. If we lose to aggy, there's a good chance we're looking at:

10-2 Texas

10-2 aggy

10-2 UGA

10-2 Bama

10-2 Ole Miss

10-2 Tenn

We would be the only team without a signature win, and 2 of those teams would have head-to-head over us. No one will care that Bama lost to Vandy, Ole Miss lost to UK, Tenn lost to Arkansas, etc.

[statsman 5,617]

5 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Boise State's conference is absolute dogshit. They are going to face a horrible Colorado State team that somehow ran their conference slate in the CCG. Giving them the 4 seed ahead of 1 loss BYU or 2 loss Prime U is hilarious and beautiful

Fify

[Revolution512 1,510]

We are winning this fucking conference 

[BurntEyes 6,185]

On 11/15/2024 at 5:23 PM, Ignatius said:

Funny that in our first year in the conference where every game is like playing the ‘85 Bears and when we played the defending national champ on the road, our main concern is that we haven’t played anyone worth a fuck…

I went to a Friendsgiving event in Nashville yesterday. Lots of Tennessee natives and Grads.

In the conversation the thing I realized is that the 3 best QBs in the nation don't play in the SEC. In fact, the "best" QBs in the SEC are all missing aspects. Milroe, Beck and Quinn struggle under pressure. Quinn can't run, Milroe still runs to often, Dart is hit or miss, ironically, and Beck loves to throw INTs. Of those, Dart is, imo probably most consistent, but there isn't one of them I would personally take over Sanders, Gabriel or Ward. It's a weird year for QBs and particularly weird for the SEC.

[Mantis Toboggan, MD 1,520]

I went to a Friendsgiving event in Nashville yesterday. Lots of Tennessee natives and Grads.
In the conversation the thing I realized is that the 3 best QBs in the nation don't play in the SEC. In fact, the "best" QBs in the SEC are all missing aspects. Milroe, Beck and Quinn struggle under pressure. Quinn can't run, Milroe still runs to often, Dart is hit or miss, ironically, and Beck loves to throw INTs. Of those, Dart is, imo probably most consistent, but there isn't one of them I would personally take over Sanders, Gabriel or Ward. It's a weird year for QBs and particularly weird for the SEC.

I would rather have Dillon Gabriel than any of those QBs

[BurntEyes 6,185]

5 minutes ago, Mantis Toboggan, MD said:

I would rather have Dillon Gabriel than any of those QBs

I agree and it's why I listed him with Sanders and Ward as one of the 3 best that weren't in the SEC. Probably, the best of those. I'm just really glad Venables disagreed with both of us.

Edited November 17 by BurntEyes

[LTtxfan 49,720]

Without more Top 6 SEC upsets or Notre Dame losing another game, Texas likely needs to beat both kentucky and aggy to make the playoffs.  

 

[HenryJames 66,837]

Also beat Vandy on the road. Something Alabama couldn’t do.