2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#4 (CFP/AP/Coaches)

['stache 22078]

I'm really looking forward to the first true tiebreaker fiasco with the new divisionless megaconference setup. I think I saw that both the Big XII and SEC have a "conference strength of schedule" tiebreaker somewhere along the line. Seems like some serious bullshit since a program has no control over the schedule and how good those teams end up. At the beginning of the year everyone thought the strongest Big XII schedules would be those with OSU, Utah, UA, and/or KU on them, and the weakest would include ASU and CU, yet here we are, lol. 

[Js1 86355]

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm really looking forward to the first true tiebreaker fiasco with the new divisionless megaconference setup. I think I saw that both the Big XII and SEC have a "conference strength of schedule" tiebreaker somewhere along the line. Seems like some serious bullshit since a program has no control over the schedule and how good those teams end up. At the beginning of the year everyone thought the strongest Big XII schedules would be those with OSU, Utah, UA, and/or KU on them, and the weakest would include ASU and CU, yet here we are, lol. 

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot?

The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

[campcrunk 2543]

On 11/19/2024 at 8:52 PM, GabrielsHorn said:

She really is a beating. I don’t know how she got pushed into national coverage at multiple locations when her analysis is generally trash. Dinich is significantly superior but doesn’t look like a Hollywood star so…
 

 

Her only real redeeming quality is that she sort of looks like Aubrey Plaza

['stache 22078]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot?

The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

I remember that even the notnothing.net algorithm was wrong in determining second place scenarios. It's going to be a complete clusterfuck at some point.

Edited November 21 by 'stache

[Js1 86355]

Just now, 'stache said:

I remember that even the notnothing.net algorythm was wrong in determining second place. It's going to be a complete clusterfuck at some point.

Because all conferences use really weird wording that has two or three meanings. 

The mega conference scheduling is so fucked without divisions or pods. 

[Huckleberry 34131]

It's possible for there to be a 3-way tie of undefeated teams in conference play with these super conferences if they don't use pods to rotate divisions. Imagine that situation. One team will be left out because of a schedule they don't control and will be an undefeated power conference team that doesn't get a bye. 

And the team that loses the CCG will be rated even lower than the undefeated team that missed it because now they have a loss. Obviously this is unlikely to ever actually happen but if your structure makes it a possibility then your structure sucks. 

[Hagbard Celine 11099]

1 hour ago, Hayduke said:

Lil ol' private school in the heart of fancy Dallas whose best years were based on throwing illegal money around to ED and CJK5H? Salty about the big state school just down the road, the poors who suddenly became new money because of oil discoveries on PUF land 100 years ago?  Who since, under everyone else's watchful eyes, have built a campus and football program with a history and promise second to none? 

That's a real head-scratcher. You'd think those Dallas high-society types would be pleased that a little investment and hard work paid off for their no-longer-country cousins. Not our fault we had to move to a bigger neighborhood to maintain our business and social ties.

if anyone has an axe to grind with pony it's aggy who might have done something in 82 (dickerson's senior year was sherrill's first)

[closetojumping 64696]

45 minutes ago, campcrunk said:

Her only real redeeming quality is that she sort of looks like Aubrey Plaza

Generally, she's a good journalist who puts in the work to verify claims and sources and facts and wild shit like that. She's even won awards for it. Legacy media and even much of sports media could learn from her on those fronts. As a commentator on XM 84 and elsewhere, she's not normally taking a position as a journalist, and she's a Michigan alum, so for sure she's going to be far less redeeming in that context for us as Texas fans. 

[Hagbard Celine 11099]

1 hour ago, Hayduke said:

But Houston and TCU were right up there

if so then dry, wacker and sullivan were the worst cheaters in the galaxy

[NorthLoop 14397]

Let's not pretend Dinich is good either. She's trash. All of her research and hot takes are just her repeating whatever Paw says. 

[DanTheHorn 5025]

I have been of the opinion that if you are not one of the best 8 teams in the country then you do not deserve to be in a playoff. The thing I liked about the 12 team playoff is that 4 teams were filler and anyone outside of the last four had as much argument as last 4 to make it into the playoff so who cares. So the BIG XII, ACC and GROUP of 5 take a spot even though they are outside the top 12 fine let them have their fun. You think you were the 9th best team in the country but did not get in since the committee thought someone else was the 9th best team do better next time. Bottom line I agree with Saban the top 5 or 6 teams with a realistic chance to win it all are always going to make it into the play off.

Now that Texas is being talked about as having a chance to end up outside the top 8 and possibly out of the top 12 if god forbid they lose to aggy will I stick to my guns and not be pissed off. Of course not since standing on principal only works until one is affected.

[Js1 86355]

TeXaS pLaYs NoBoDy

 

In the top 12, Texas would rank 7th in SOS, closer to Penn State than Oregon is to us. 

Can the internet and the committee start bitching about Oregon and Notre Dame and Miami and Boise instead? 

Edited November 21 by Js1

[jimmyjazz 46753]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TeXaS pLaYs NoBoDy

In the top 12, Texas would rank 7th in SOS, closer to Penn State than Oregon is to us. 

Can the internet and the committee start bitching about Oregon and Notre Dame and Miami and Boise instead? 

I literally posted this yesterday.  Hopefully the "media" will begin to pick up on it.

[Js1 86355]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I literally posted this yesterday.  Hopefully the "media" will begin to pick up on it.

You posted a tweet from this morning yesterday? 

[jimmyjazz 46753]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

You posted a tweet from this morning yesterday? 

LOL no I posted the SOS info yesterday.  But I am from the future.

[utee94 16037]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

LOL no I posted the SOS info yesterday.  But I am from the future.

Damn I just KNEW you were a futureman sock.

[Js1 86355]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Hopefully the "media" will begin to pick up on it.

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

[jimmyjazz 46753]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

Didn't we originally schedule Georgia for a home and home noncon series?  It's not like we're ducking blueboods.  Ohio State, ND, LSU, Michigan, Georgia, etc.

EDIT:  oh, and it's not like we didn't lose 11 players to the draft this year.

Edited November 21 by jimmyjazz

[MuellerHorn 4557]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot?

The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

Not sure why they haven't already written a program to just do this all for them. That shouldn't be difficult.

Edit: I see above about the past fuck ups even with algorithms. Who do they have doing this shit for them? Some college social media intern? As dysfunctional as Yormark seems, he's probably trying to do it himself with Copilot or some shit.

Edited November 21 by MuellerHorn

[dcar00 14867]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh I'm sure it'll be "they can't help who they play!" because only Texas has 100% control over their conference schedule and clearly knew Michigan would lose Harbaugh, half the staff and a dozen players to the NFL when they scheduled this a decade ago. 

The funny thing is that Notre Dame has complete control over who they play and they have the 2nd worst SOS.  Indiana's SOS should actually be disqualifying, #106 .  Army should be right behind them at #7

[Js1 86355]

8 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

Not sure why they haven't already written a program to just do this all for them. That shouldn't be difficult.

Edit: I see above about the past fuck ups even with algorithms. Who do they have doing this shit for them? Some college social media intern? As dysfunctional as Yormark seems, he's probably trying to do it himself with Copilot or some shit.

Right, there's not some stats and programming nerd who can game out a program to do this for them at any of the schools in their conference? 

[Valmy77 13550]

Notre Dame is required to play a certain number of ACC schools every year, and that in itself will tank your SOS.

['stache 22078]

1 hour ago, DanTheHorn said:

I have been of the opinion that if you are not one of the best 8 teams in the country then you do not deserve to be in a playoff. The thing I liked about the 12 team playoff is that 4 teams were filler and anyone outside of the last four had as much argument as last 4 to make it into the playoff so who cares. So the BIG XII, ACC and GROUP of 5 take a spot even though they are outside the top 12 fine let them have their fun. You think you were the 9th best team in the country but did not get in since the committee thought someone else was the 9th best team do better next time. Bottom line I agree with Saban the top 5 or 6 teams with a realistic chance to win it all are always going to make it into the play off.

Now that Texas is being talked about as having a chance to end up outside the top 8 and possibly out of the top 12 if god forbid they lose to aggy will I stick to my guns and not be pissed off. Of course not since standing on principal only works until one is affected.

I agree with you in concept, but the problem with this system is who is 8th or 9th is completely subjective and subject to bias. It's not gonna get any better anytime soon. 

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

The funny thing is that Notre Dame has complete control over who they play and they have the 2nd worst SOS.  Indiana's SOS should actually be disqualifying, #106 .  Army should be right behind them at #7

The fact that the financial juggernaut of the Big 10 can include a team with 106 SOS is astounding to me, especially with Indiana making $80M, same as Michigan, and double Colorado, BYU, etc., even FSU and Miami. They could play complete nobodies OOC and the conference making that much money alone should get them a better SOS. Does that include Ohio State or will the SOS go way up after that game?

Edited November 21 by 'stache

[Js1 86355]

Just now, 'stache said:

The fact that the financial juggernaut of the Big 10 can include a team with 106 SOS is astounding to me, especially with Indiana making $80M, same as Michigan. They could play complete nobodies OOC and the conference making that much money alone should get them a better SOS. Does that include Ohio State or will the SOS go way up after that game?

I assume this is schedule played so far? Their SOS should improve by playing Ohio State, but then they play shitty Purdue to end the year. 

Texas' should also improve, playing aggy next weekend. 

[dcar00 14867]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I agree with you in concept, but the problem with this system is who is 8th or 9th is completely subjective and subject to bias. It's not gonna get any better anytime soon. 

The fact that the financial juggernaut of the Big 10 can include a team with 106 SOS is astounding to me, especially with Indiana making $80M, same as Michigan. They could play complete nobodies OOC and the conference making that much money alone should get them a better SOS. Does that include Ohio State or will the SOS go way up after that game?

doesn't include tOSU so it will go up after that.  Purdue is 1-9 and unbelievably their SOS per Sagarin is #7.  I guess it goes back down after Purdue but not sure how that record and their SOS plays into Indiana's SOS.

edit Purdue's OOC included Oregon state, Neb, and ND.  fucking salty.

Edited November 21 by dcar00

[satyanash 15208]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Remember how long it took the Big 12 last year to clarify Texas had clinched spot? The B1G just took 2 days to work through all the tiebreakers to announce Oregon had clinched a spot. 

If it is taking conference officials 2-3 days to figure out their own rules, the rules are stupid AF. 

We could have used a little more complexity in 2008...

[jimmyjazz 46753]

Remaining SOS, according to ESPN:

1. Kentucky

2. Auburn

3. Texas A&M

4. Indiana

5. Texas

 

Hmmm . . . what do #1 and #3 have in common?  Can't quite put my finger on it.

[Tex Long 4557]

Still wondering how Tennessee is #17 SOS but we're #38. Tenn's OOC are 13-29 and include 0-11 Kent State, ours are 22-18. Their "big game" was NC State (5-5) while ours was Meatchicken (also 5-5). The SEC games are identical except they have Bama and we have aggy. Just doesn't seem like anough of a difference in opponents to account for the rating discrepancy. 

 

 

Just win, baby.

 

Hook'em

 

[jimmyjazz 46753]

2 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Still wondering how Tennessee is #17 SOS but we're #38. Tenn's OOC are 13-29 and include 0-11 Kent State, ours are 22-18. Their "big game" was NC State (5-5) while ours was Meatchicken (also 5-5).

Sagarin also has us at 38 but the Vols at 35.  At that point it's just in the noise.

[Js1 86355]

3 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Still wondering how Tennessee is #17 SOS but we're #38. Tenn's OOC are 13-29 and include 0-11 Kent State, ours are 22-18. Their "big game" was NC State (5-5) while ours was Meatchicken (also 5-5). The SEC games are identical except they have Bama and we have aggy. Just doesn't seem like anough of a difference in opponents to account for the rating discrepancy. 

 

 

Just win, baby.

 

Hook'em

 

If it also doesn’t include games yet to be played, they played Bama, we haven’t played aggy yet. 

[heso 2848]

32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Remaining SOS, according to ESPN:

1. Kentucky

2. Auburn

3. Texas A&M

4. Indiana

5. Texas

 

Hmmm . . . what do #1 and #3 have in common?  Can't quite put my finger on it.

And Tennessee’s remaining sos is 70th. 

The debate after all the games are played will be between 2 loss Tennessee and 1 loss Indiana. 

Tennessee fans and Finebaum will wail and gnash their teeth about the lack of quality wins for Texas, psu, & iu. But they’ll be sitting there with a suddenly unimpressive sos, and an extra loss to Arkansas. And they’ll put up their schedule on the screen and people will talk briefly about the big win over bama and hope that no one will notice that they only have one other good team on the schedule and they lost 31-17. 

[dcar00 14867]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If it also doesn’t include games yet to be played, they played Bama, we haven’t played aggy yet. 

Our SOS probably goes to about 20 after aggy game.

[ztejas 44089]

On 11/20/2024 at 10:15 AM, David Dennison said:

The CFP needs to do away with at-large bids. Figure out a system of automatic qualifiers and be done with it.

Agree. I'm fine with a few at-larges but something like the 8 P4 CCG participants making it with 4 at-large (none of the G5 auto-bid nonsense) would be better imo.

[ztejas 44089]

6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

They'd have two losses if Manny Diaz hadn't tried to be a galaxy brain

And we'd have zero losses if we kept Preston Stone on the bench all season. 

I'm not sure what Texas has to do with SMU or what those idiots are complaining about. I have a problem with where Miami and BSU are ranked vs. SMU but also none of it matters because ACC is a 1 bid league. 

Edited November 21 by ztejas

[dcar00 14867]

I made a joke about it upthread but I wouldn't mind just doing the BCS Computer rankings of old for the top 12.  keep the damn humans/eye test out of it.

This week SMU is in and BYU and Boise are out.

there wasn't really anything wrong with BCS Computers necessarily it was the fact that you were only picking 2 teams.

[closetojumping 64696]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Didn't we originally schedule Georgia for a home and home noncon series?  It's not like we're ducking blueboods.  Ohio State, ND, LSU, Michigan, Georgia, etc.

EDIT:  oh, and it's not like we didn't lose 11 players to the draft this year.

Texas had Georgia and Florida scheduled for OOC home & aways from 2028-2031. To your point, there isn't a fucking program in this country that operates more clearly in the OOC scheduling with the attitude of "we will play anyone, any time, anywhere" than Texas.

Anyone claiming someone else as close to this is full of shit. No FCS teams, usually competitive "cupcakes" that go bowling, sometimes 2 P4 teams. Notre Dame, USC and Maryland concurrently, LSU, Arkansas, Bama, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame (previously UGA), vacant and likely major program to replace UF, then ASU. All of these pundits can go get fucked whining about UT's schedule.

[ztejas 44089]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I made a joke about it upthread but I wouldn't mind just doing the BCS Computer rankings of old for the top 12.  keep the damn humans/eye test out of it.

This week SMU is in and BYU and Boise are out.

there wasn't really anything wrong with BCS Computers necessarily it was the fact that you were only picking 2 teams.

Curious - what is Boise? They aren't in the top 20 in any of the 3 leading predictive metrics.

[jimmyjazz 46753]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

there wasn't really anything wrong with BCS Computers necessarily it was the fact that you were only picking 2 teams.

I heard a talking head lamenting the fact that UGA got left out last year, claiming it as proof positive that the CFP committee couldn't be trusted to include conference championship game losers in the playoffs.

Uh, last year the playoff was 4 teams, not 12.  Kind of a big difference.

[dcar00 14867]

Just now, ztejas said:

Curious - what is Boise? They aren't in the top 20 in any of the 3 leading predictive metrics.

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/rankings/college-football-rankings-bcs-top-25-week-13

SI seems to keep doing the BCS computer standings.  Boise is 14.

[jimmyjazz 46753]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Bama

Christ, how did I leave 'bama off my list.  LOL.

[Billy Pilgrim 2051]

Unfortunately, these schedules are made so far in advance you don’t anticipate Michigan sucking ass when you signed the contract 8 years ago (or Florida State in ND’s case- although they do get a break with aggy and real army actually being good).

[dcar00 14867]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I heard a talking head lamenting the fact that UGA got left out last year, claiming it as proof positive that the CFP committee couldn't be trusted to include conference championship game losers in the playoffs.

Uh, last year the playoff was 4 teams, not 12.  Kind of a big difference.

Booger?  He seems like someone who would completely forget it was 4 teams last year.  maybe the dumb galoot from BYU Matich...?

[jimmyjazz 46753]

Just now, Billy Pilgrim said:

Unfortunately, these schedules are made so far in advance you don’t anticipate Michigan sucking ass when you signed the contract 8 years ago (or Florida State in ND’s case- although they do get a break with aggy and real army actually being good).

No, but when you consistently schedule programs that often reside in the top 10 you're fairly likely to end up with some salty opponents.  Scheduling McNeese State is the opposite.

[chainsaw 10197]

12 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I made a joke about it upthread but I wouldn't mind just doing the BCS Computer rankings of old for the top 12.  keep the damn humans/eye test out of it.

This week SMU is in and BYU and Boise are out.

there wasn't really anything wrong with BCS Computers necessarily it was the fact that you were only picking 2 teams.

I think committees do a decent job, when it's the march madness bracket. I'm only upset if a team that clearly belongs in the conversation for #1 gets left out. I don't feel so bad about BYU, Boise, or any two-loss P4 being left out of the playoffs because they never would have had a chance in the BCS or 4-team CFP days.

[chainsaw 10197]

I did feel kind of upset that an undefeated G5 (Liberty) could be excluded, although in that case I didn't actually think they were capable of hanging with the four selected teams and (like FSU) they got exposed in bowl season.

[heso 2848]

9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Texas had Georgia and Florida scheduled for OOC home & aways from 2028-2031. To your point, there isn't a fucking program in this country that operates more clearly in the OOC scheduling with the attitude of "we will play anyone, any time, anywhere" than Texas.

Anyone claiming someone else as close to this is full of shit. No FCS teams, usually competitive "cupcakes" that go bowling, sometimes 2 P4 teams. Notre Dame, USC and Maryland concurrently, LSU, Arkansas, Bama, Michigan, Ohio State, Notre Dame (previously UGA), vacant and likely major program to replace UF, then ASU. All of these pundits can go get fucked whining about UT's schedule.

It’s not even up for debate that Texas approaches ooc scheduling with more integrity than any other school. They want a ooc game against a national championship contender every year. The second tier after them includes bama, Ohio state, and Michigan. LSU is a small step behind them. Everyone else can get fucked. 

[Js1 86355]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No, but when you consistently schedule programs that often reside in the top 10 you're fairly likely to end up with some salty opponents.  Scheduling McNeese State is the opposite.

yeah, I like our scheduling philosophy.  If we move to 9 game SEC schedule, we should continue to schedule: 

1 major P4 program
1 in-state G5 school (either within our system or Rice)
1 nearby G5 school

[ztejas 44089]

17 minutes ago, heso said:

It’s not even up for debate that Texas approaches ooc scheduling with more integrity than any other school. They want a ooc game against a national championship contender every year. The second tier after them includes bama, Ohio state, and Michigan. LSU is a small step behind them. Everyone else can get fucked. 

I think teams with permanent big program OOC rivals should get a little credit, too. USC/ND, SCAR/Clemson, FSU/Florida off the top of my head. 

(In fact I would say ND in general usually plays a tough schedule and doesn't shy away from marquee games)

Edited November 21 by ztejas

[heso 2848]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I did feel kind of upset that an undefeated G5 (Liberty) could be excluded, although in that case I didn't actually think they were capable of hanging with the four selected teams and (like FSU) they got exposed in bowl season.

The closest a G5 team was ever going to get was 2017 UCF. Only undefeated team, 2 wins over top 25 teams. Showed they could hang by beating #7 in the peach bowl. But there was no way bama, uga, ok, or Clemson were going to be left out for ucf even though they were the only one without a loss. B1g didn’t even get a team in that year because osu had 2 losses and then gave wisc their only loss in the b1g championship game. 

[ztejas 44089]

Just now, heso said:

The closest a G5 team was ever going to get was 2017 UCF. Only undefeated team, 2 wins over top 25 teams. Showed they could hang by beating #7 in the peach bowl. But there was no way bama, uga, ok, or Clemson were going to be left out for ucf even though they were the only one without a loss. B1g didn’t even get a team in that year because osu had 2 losses and then gave wisc their only loss in the b1g championship game. 

G5 Cincy MADE the CFP.

There were also a couple TCU, Utah seasons where they were legit top 5 teams playing in the G5.