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2024 CFB polls/rankings - Texas #3/ #4 /#4 (CFP/AP/Coaches)


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17 minutes ago, heso said:

lol, the Bama that lost to Vandy and scored 3 points against OU? 

s-e-c s-e-c s-e-c

They overlooked and underestimated OU, a team with much more talent than its record would indicate. A recipe for getting upset, especially on the road. Their performances against Auburn and Georgia are ore indicative of how they'd approach a playoff game. Meanwhile Pedo really has not been tested. Give me Bama all day.

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24 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

They overlooked and underestimated OU, a team with much more talent than its record would indicate. A recipe for getting upset, especially on the road. Their performances against Auburn and Georgia are ore indicative of how they'd approach a playoff game. Meanwhile Pedo really has not been tested. Give me Bama all day.

They overlooked OU? When a loss would have almost certainly knocked them out of playoff contention. Right. 

But that’s the mantra of the sec this year. Judge them by their best games, ignore the losses. 

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1 minute ago, heso said:

They overlooked OU? When a loss would have almost certainly knocked them out of playoff contention. Right. 

But that’s the mantra of the sec this year. Judge them by their best games, ignore the losses. 

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

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6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

There is a difference between being probably better than another team (by the eye test) and being more deserving (by record and performances on the field). Bama has had massive variations in play this year. They have looked like a top 5 team and an unranked team at different points. They have a higher ceiling than the teams we are comparing them to but they also have a lower floor. To reward them for their erratic play is ridiculous. 

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Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

There is a difference between being probably better than another team (by the eye test) and being more deserving (by record and performances on the field). Bama has had massive variations in play this year. They have looked like a top 5 team and an unranked team at different points. They have a higher ceiling than the teams we are comparing them to but they also have a lower floor. To reward them for their erratic play is ridiculous. 

I don't think of playoff qualification as a "reward" when the committee's job is to find the twelve best teams and to arrange the eight best potential matchups for the first two rounds.

"Deserve" got nothing to do with it. I'm not sure I would consider Alabama one of the twelve best teams in the country, but I do think if they did make the playoffs they would beat Pedo State quite easily.

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Just now, chainsaw said:

I don't think of playoff qualification as a "reward" when the committee's job is to find the twelve best teams and to arrange the eight best potential matchups for the first two rounds.

"Deserve" got nothing to do with it. I'm not sure I would consider Alabama one of the twelve best teams in the country, but I do think if they did make the playoffs they would beat Pedo State quite easily.

Almost every team in the playoffs will beat Pedo State easily. They are a joke team playing in a joke conference and they had a joke schedule. That being said, them and Indiana get in because they both had 1 loss regular seasons. That's how it goes sometimes. You can't put half the SEC in the playoffs along with OSU and Oregon. You have to let other teams in who "earned" their shot. 

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1 minute ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Almost every team in the playoffs will beat Pedo State easily. They are a joke team playing in a joke conference and they had a joke schedule. That being said, them and Indiana get in because they both had 1 loss regular seasons. That's how it goes sometimes. You can't put half the SEC in the playoffs along with OSU and Oregon. You have to let other teams in who "earned" their shot. 

If they lose by a lot to Oregon, I would hope they get passed up but you're probably right that they will still qualify.

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15 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

OU gets no credit for anything. In their last 9 games this year they won 3 games. In those 3 wins they beat 5-7 auburn (with a pick 6 in the last 5 mins), they beat 5-7 Maine, and they beat Bama. They lost 6 of 9.

And not only did bama lose to them, they lost to Vandy as well. 

look, I fully expect Deboer to field legit national championship caliber teams at bama in the future. This ain’t one. 

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I'm resigned to the fact that as long as the 4 best teams make it in each year, I'm not so concerned with who else makes it. We are debating 3 loss teams making it in now. Who gives a shit. This year texas Oregon osu amd Georgia are the 4 best teams and they are all safely in. Whether Alabama or ole miss or a 2 loss Smu also makes it in is just silly. 

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1 minute ago, UTGrad98 said:

I'm resigned to the fact that as long as the 4 best teams make it in each year, I'm not so concerned with who else makes it. We are debating 3 loss teams making it in now. Who gives a shit. This year texas Oregon osu amd Georgia are the 4 best teams and they are all safely in. Whether Alabama or ole miss or a 2 loss Smu also makes it in is just silly. 

There’s always going be 5 deserving teams as “the 5 conf champs” bc they won their conference and then we are just picking the “best” resume of the remaining couch potatoes or CCG losers for the other 7 spots.

Id rather split hairs on teams 11/12 than watching 2-3 deserving teams miss out on a 4 team playoff bc someone lost on a fluke play or something 

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

There’s always going be 5 deserving teams as “the 5 conf champs” bc they won their conference and then we are just picking the “best” resume of the remaining couch potatoes or CCG losers for the other 7 spots.

Id rather split hairs on teams 11/12 than watching 2-3 deserving teams miss out on a 4 team playoff bc someone lost on a fluke play or something 

I personally think that the jury is still out on this.  If UNLV beats Boise State, they will be in as a 19th or 20th ranked team in the AP or coaches poll.  Good for them for winning their ccg, but they should not jump 8 teams because they are the tallest midget.  Conferences may or may not be exposed durning the playoffs, but I’m hoping they are so we can rethink this thing.  Put the best twelve in with no auto bids or committee.  Use the BCS model for 12 and let the battle rumble begin.  I know this is not going to happen, so maybe we could drop the auto bid for a team that doesn’t finish inside the top 15 of either major poll.

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14 hours ago, The Dog said:

Neither team has any really good wins other than SMU's win at Louisville (who beat Clemson). Both Sagarin and Massey have this game as a toss-up. I think that's due to Clemson's games against USCe and UGA (even though they were losses).

Sagarin has us 4.5 better than Clemson. That isn't a toss up. I think the line being around a FG is fair. FPI and Sagarin actually both have Lousiville higher than Clemson.

Clemson better hope they are better than they've been against our common opponents. Although I think SCAR is good and they played them well.

SMU @ UL - 31-24 

UL @ Clemson - 33-21 

-

Virginia @ Clemson - 31-48

SMU @ Virginia - 33-7

-

Pitt @ SMU - 25-48

Clemson @ Pitt - 24-20 

-

Stanford @ Clemson - 14-40

SMU @ Stanford - 40-10

-

Clemson @ FSU - 13-29

FSU @ SMU - 16-42

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8 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'm not sure they felt that sense of urgency going into that game. I put that on DeBoer, but also you have to credit the sooners for executing their gameplan and never allowing Bama to mount any kind of response. Either way, I don't see Bama losing to any B1G team.

But you totally forwsaw the losses to vandy and ou right?  Congrats, you must have really made out on those money lines.

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9 hours ago, chainsaw said:

"Deserve" got nothing to do with it. I'm not sure I would consider Alabama one of the twelve best teams in the country, but I do think if they did make the playoffs they would beat Pedo State quite easily.

I'll tell you what has something to do with it: TV eyeballs. Because of their runaway success over the last ten years, 'Bama will produce substantially better Nielsens than Pedo State. Pedo's appeal is Rust Belt; 'Bama's is nationwide. The CFP Selection Committee won't admit it publicly, of course, but that matters. It's the same with Texas, BTW. We don't need it this year, but it's nice to have that Nielsen ace up our sleeves for the times when we do. 

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5 hours ago, ztejas said:

Bro Arizona is God fucking awful.

They were pretty darn good last year and have had some good seasons. That’s the difference, there’s no perennial cellar dwellers in the Big XII anymore. Baylor and even KU have learned how to not be terrible all the time. OKST was in the CCG last year and is 0-7 this year. The preseason predictions were largely backwards of where it ended up. That’s what will make the league interesting going forward. The SEC and BIG pecking order is largely permanent. Indiana is the only major outlier this season. 

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(Austin Mock) Predicting the College Football Playoff rankings: It’s Alabama vs. SMU, Miami and the ACC

Quote

The College Football Playoff bracket was again flipped on its head in Rivalry Week. So what will the penultimate selection committee rankings look like Tuesday night?

You can’t start a conversation about the rankings without mentioning Ohio State. The Buckeyes, ranked No. 2 last week, lost to rival Michigan for the fourth consecutive year, this time as a three-touchdown favorite. That’s not only going to shake up the top of the Playoff rankings this week, but its ripples will be felt in conference championship weekend, as Penn State is now in the Big Ten Championship Game against Oregon. So how far will Ohio State fall? Are the Buckeyes in line to host a home game in the first round? Tuesday’s rankings will give us a clearer picture.

Ohio State wasn’t the only top-10 team to be upset, either. No. 6 Miami blew a 21-0 lead on the road at Syracuse and is now in jeopardy of missing the Playoff, having already cost itself a spot in the ACC title game (sending Clemson to Charlotte instead). The big question will be if Miami (10-2) is ranked ahead of Alabama (9-3), as the at-large bids are filling up and that’s likely where the bubble line will be drawn. It’s never a certainty until the bracket is set, but if the Hurricanes fall behind Alabama, their odds of making the Playoff are slim. Here’s what my model is predicting the rankings will be Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN):

Projected CFP Top 25 after Week 14

1
12-0
   
2
11-1
   
3
11-1
   
4
11-1
   
5
10-2
   
6
10-2
   
7
10-2
   
8
team-logo-158-50x50.pngSMU
11-1
   
9
11-1
   
10
9-3
   
11
10-2
   
12
9-3
   
13
11-1
   
14
9-3
   
15
10-2
   
16
10-2
   
17
team-logo-217-50x50.pngBYU
10-2
   
18
9-3
   
19
9-3
   
20
9-3
   
21
9-3
   
22
9-3
   
23
10-2
   
24
10-1
   
25
8-4
   

Texas, Penn State and Notre Dame should all move up after Ohio State’s loss. Similar to last week, I wouldn’t be shocked if the committee puts Notre Dame over Penn State. I wouldn’t agree with it — and neither would my model — but the committee could use the Irish’s 14-point win at USC as justification. Penn State beat USC by three in overtime earlier in the year.

Does Ohio State fall to No. 5? Or will it be behind Georgia? Some are making the argument for the Buckeyes to fall below Tennessee, like they did in the AP poll, but that’s an incorrect one, in my opinion. Ohio State has two better wins in the committee’s eyes against Penn State and Indiana and the tougher schedule. People might not like it, but Ohio State is still in a good position to host a Playoff game despite the loss to Michigan. In fact, I’d be shocked if that wasn’t the case.

Perhaps the most uncertainty this week involves the ACC title game and the final at-large bid. SMU beating Clemson makes things pretty simple, as the Mustangs would get an automatic bid and first-round bye and Clemson would be out. However, if SMU loses, Clemson is in position to get an automatic bid and SMU would then be pitted against, you guessed it, Alabama for the last remaining spot, if the Tide are indeed ahead of Miami.

I don’t think SMU should be penalized too harshly for a conference championship game loss, but considering how tough Alabama’s schedule is, especially compared to SMU’s, the Crimson Tide are going to be in the conversation. A lot of things will factor into the discussion, of course. If SMU were to lose by multiple scores, I think that likely knocks it out. If it’s a close game, maybe that keeps the Mustangs in.

But there’s the also the fact that Alabama has the name recognition and hails from the SEC. Is that a fair process? Not necessarily. Alabama would again benefit from jumping a team after the conference championship game like last year over Florida State. But the resumes being so close will make this a debate, and if I had to guess, Alabama would get the benefit of the doubt.

As for the rest of the bracket, there is a chance that the Big 12 champion could stay ahead of Clemson, if it wins the ACC title, which would push the Tigers down the seeding list. With the AAC likely out, the winner of the Mountain West will get a spot in the Playoff — and Boise State has a good shot at the No. 3 seed if Clemson prevails in the ACC.

 

 

           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           

 

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1 hour ago, 'stache said:

They were pretty darn good last year and have had some good seasons. That’s the difference, there’s no perennial cellar dwellers in the Big XII anymore. Baylor and even KU have learned how to not be terrible all the time. OKST was in the CCG last year and is 0-7 this year. The preseason predictions were largely backwards of where it ended up. That’s what will make the league interesting going forward. The SEC and BIG pecking order is largely permanent. Indiana is the only major outlier this season. 

Purdue played in the big ten championship game 2 years ago and went 9-4 the year before that. 

Miss St has finished in the top 25 four times in the last 10 seasons. They were ranked number 1 for 5 weeks in 2014. 

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All this seeding preference stuff has too many variables right now. 

Clemson beating SMU would throw a pretty big wrench into it. Boise would be the 3 seed and you'd have an SMU-Bama battle for the last spot. Do they punish SMU for a CCG loss? So the 6 seed could end up playing SMU then Boise, which is a better path than the 5 seed who would have Big 12 and Clemson.

If UT loses, it's a battle with tOSU and ND for seeding. Again, does UT get punished for a CCG? And an Oregon loss would probably put them in the 5 spot.

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13 hours ago, heso said:

They overlooked OU? When a loss would have almost certainly knocked them out of playoff contention. Right. 

But that’s the mantra of the sec this year. Judge them by their best games, ignore the losses. 


Agreed. And Alabama wasn't just beat by OU, they were WHIPPED by OU.

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4 hours ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Change the format to 5 conference champions get a top 8 seed and let the committee re-seed all the teams accordingly. No reason a team like Oregon could possibly not get a first round bye and a team like Clemson or Iowa St could

There's an easy and obvious reason. The entire point is to reward conference champions. And since the major conferences haven't split off, that's what happens. I hope they never split off but think they will in time.

And I have no issue with ensuring that conference titles continue to mean something, and using the format to reinforce that is fine with me. Texas fans were trained by Mack Brown to think conference championships don't matter a lot. But they do. And they should. 

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1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

Alabama has developed Notre Dame type plot armor I guess.

Lose to Vanderbilt? Get blown out by OU? No problem. They should get a shot at the national title because they are Bama!

We will have to change the old saw from DKR.  "How do you win a National Championship?  First Bama needs to lose 4 times."

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spitballing:

I don't think a 3-loss Georgia is hosting a playoff game. Won't matter because if we beat them they'll be pissed and will take someone's lunch money. 

Indiana is underrated and should be hosting. The committee is screwing these guys. 

Nobody is talking about how Penn State hasn't beaten anyone. They're going to drop like a brick if they lose to Oregon - then get to play at Texas or host Georgia. 

Notre Dame is overrated and should be praying the committee doesn't send Alabama to South Bend or that they move up to the 5 line after the conference championship games so they can play ASU or ISU. And those two teams are better than anyone ND has beaten.

Ohio State is still really good and talented but their coach is in over his head. How he and the team handle the post-Michigan hangover will determine how far they go. 

Tennessee is just there. 

 

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On 12/2/2024 at 10:06 AM, Crockett said:

Well for starters, Alabama has 3 losses. They also got smoked by Oklahoma, a 6-6 team, and only scored 3 points. BYU beat the likely ACC champ on the road and its two losses are by a combined 9 points. 

gump should absolutely not be in

the sagarin case for their inclusion does not factor current trajectory or eye test

south carolina is the most-deserving 3-loss sec team at the moment

a 3-loss conference champion should trump gump if 10/11/12 are being debated

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On 12/2/2024 at 10:38 AM, statsman said:

OK, so you claim Alabama is less deserving than BYU, because it has one more loss, and one of the two 6-6 teams that beat it, did so solidly. 
 
OK, Army has one less loss than BYU. Army lost to a CFP team, on the road, while BYU’s worst loss was at home to a 5-7 Kansas team. 
 
Do you agree Army has a better argument than BYU for an at large?

this is also true

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On 12/2/2024 at 11:13 AM, The Dog said:

The problem with South Carolina is that they lost to both Bama and Ole Miss. 

The problem with both Bama and Ole Miss is each has a terrible loss (Bama to OU and Ole Miss to Kentucky). 

That's why Finebaum thinks all three get left out - there's no point in debating the three when there are other 2-loss teams available to consider.

and this is also true

this thing is fucked up

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1 hour ago, A’Dam Psycho said:

Change the format to 5 conference champions get a top 8 seed and let the committee re-seed all the teams accordingly. No reason a team like Oregon could possibly not get a first round bye and a team like Clemson or Iowa St could

What if they're better than Oregon?

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21 hours ago, chainsaw said:

If Michigan wanted to make the playoff they shouldn't have lost 5 games.

If Clemson wants to make the playoff they need to beat SMU.

If Iowa State wants to make the playoff they need to beat Arizona State.

If Alabama wanted to make the playoff they shouldn't have lost to ousux.

I'll be honest, I don't know why Pedo State got into the CCG over Indiana, but whatever the reason is, Indiana doesn't control its own destiny. I would advocate for Indiana to sneak in over the B1G CCG loser, even if that loser is Oregon.

I would prioritize qualification in the following order of importance:

  1. exactly 3 teams qualify from SEC (UGA, Tex, Tenn)
  2. at most 3 teams qualify from B1G (Oregon, Pedo, IU)
  3. exactly 1 team qualifies from Big12 (CCG winner)
  4. exactly 1 team qualifies from ACC (CCG winner)
  5. at most 1 Independent team qualifies if they have 10+ wins (ND)
  6. outstanding G5s quaify if they have 10+ wins and only quality losses (Boise)

Based on this year's results, ten teams would qualify for the playoffs, leaving two discretionary slots.

My sense is that the committee is going to have the following priorities:

  1. Ohio State (10-2)
  2. SMU if it loses the ACC CCG (11-2)
  3. Miami (10-2)
  4. Arizona State if it loses the Big12 CCG (10-3)
  5. Iowa State if it loses the Big 12 CCG (10-3)
  6. Ole Miss (9-3)
  7. SCar (9-3)

I would prefer that SMU and Arizona State got in, because I don't want to see B1G over-represented and I don't think Miami is any good.

Assuming those twelve teams qualify, I think they should be seeded:

  1. Oregon (13-0) - B1G Champ
  2. Texas (12-1) - SEC Champ
  3. Boise (12-1) - MWC Champ
  4. Clemson/Arizona State (11-2) - ACC/Big12 Champ
  5. Pedo (11-2)
  6. Georgia (10-3)
  7. Notre Dame (11-1)
  8. Clemson/Arizona State (11-2) - ACC/Big12 Champ
  9. Indiana (11-1)
  10. SMU (11-2)
  11. Tennessee (10-2)
  12. Ohio State (10-2)

@chainsaw this the best take i've read since saturday's results and should be the baseline for comparison against what the committee does tonight

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21 hours ago, chainsaw said:

I'll be honest, I don't know why Pedo State got into the CCG over Indiana

Same reason a multi-team tie in the SEC would have fucked over Texas - opponent winning %

2. Penn St (8 - 1)

Above Indiana based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4074).

3. Indiana (8 - 1)

Below Penn St based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3457).

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2 hours ago, Tex-19 said:

All this seeding preference stuff has too many variables right now. 

Clemson beating SMU would throw a pretty big wrench into it. Boise would be the 3 seed and you'd have an SMU-Bama battle for the last spot. Do they punish SMU for a CCG loss? So the 6 seed could end up playing SMU then Boise, which is a better path than the 5 seed who would have Big 12 and Clemson.

If UT loses, it's a battle with tOSU and ND for seeding. Again, does UT get punished for a CCG? And an Oregon loss would probably put them in the 5 spot.

This is where I'm at.  Like of Oregon loses, they're going in the 5th...but if Penn St or Texas lose, they probably going to 6/7 instead of 5 based on the tea leaves...and they still might decide Ohio St is higher than one or both of them.

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On 12/2/2024 at 11:02 AM, 6th Street said:

This 12 team playoff is fucking stupid. Should be 6 max with 2 byes. The rest is just filler for TV ratings. 

Is it filler? I doubt it. Sometimes a team with a few losses can get hot at the right time. 

 

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The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

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3 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

Alabama has developed Notre Dame type plot armor I guess.

This is nothing new. Well, maybe not ND levels, but Alabama has always been given the benefit of the doubt, just like we often do, or USC, or Michigan.

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12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

I still think it was just a special year, there have been so many upsets that it could be argued that even the top 13 team stood a shot, this  compounded by Alabama getting their ass wiped 3 times and people still using the talent composite argument to start slapfights.

 

That said if the upsets keep happening (super seniors,  transfer portal creating balance) it will lead to continued drama

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20 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Is it filler? I doubt it. Sometimes a team with a few losses can get hot at the right time. 

 

I think the Big 12 champ is going to fuck some shit up for any team that isn't Texas. That includes Oregon. I'll even say this: if Arizona State faces Oregon, give me the Sun Devils by at least 10.

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16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

The theory behind a 12-team playoff was that it would ensure any team that was left out really had no shot.

And here we are, arguing about the Top 12 instead of the Top 4, with more permutations, more complications, and more uncertainty.  Yay.

Vastly superior. I am more concerned about teams who don't deserve it getting in than teams that should be there being left out.

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3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think the Big 12 champ is going to fuck some shit up for any team that isn't Texas. That includes Oregon. I'll even say this: if Arizona State faces Oregon, give me the Sun Devils by at least 10.

Uhh I mean Oregon is pretty well versed against Arizona State

image.thumb.png.5f2eac372c4df1ac46ba9fd059e66e64.png

Them being in the Big 12 this year didn't grant them mythical powers they previously didn't possess.

 

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