Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[Js1 85276]

He said that PA mail-in ballots for indies are usually 70/30 Dem, so (D - R )+ .7(indies) = 500k is when Dems should feel good about their firewall if they can hit that by Election Day 

Edited October 21 by Js1

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

.7(indies

If you add the 70% to the d side, you have to add the 30% to the r side yes? Or use .4(indies)?

[Js1 85276]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

If you add the 70% to the d side, you have to add the 30% to the r side yes? Or use .4(indies)?

.4 works too. Either way, 500k is the target.

[The Dog 44019]

57 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

All of the anecdotal evidence seems to point to NV going red. 

Maybe but with the weekend and all of the casino workers we may not see their ballots until later in the week. So it might change.

[Bozo_Casanova 26437]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Maybe but with the weekend and all of the casino workers we may not see their ballots until later in the week. So it might change.

Maybe? I think it’s going red this time- the tips thing. 

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe? I think it’s going red this time- the tips thing. 

Didn’t she also say tips would be tax-free?

[Bozo_Casanova 26437]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Didn’t she also say tips would be tax-free?

Of course, but he won it because he got to the dumb thing first. It’s like when Hillary Clinton opposed the TTP. She conceded a point she should not have conceded and made herself look weak in the process. 

[HOOKEM4 5036]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Didn’t she also say tips would be tax-free?

Yea, but people are stupid.

I can't vote till Wednesday when I am back in town. I am more excited to vote than I was before the game this weekend and my annual "Christmas in November, " deer season opening day, combined. Fuck drump/cruz

[cactusflinthead 27598]

On 10/11/2024 at 1:44 PM, StassneyHorn said:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/

Some nice visuals and graphics for Pennsylvania

Ok where can I find a breakdown for today in Texas Counties? I heard today that Denton cracked 40k after 35 k in 2020. Fact checking 

[Js1 85276]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

Ok where can I find a breakdown for today in Texas Counties? I heard today that Denton cracked 40k after 35 k in 2020. Fact checking 

Usually updates around 11pm on the Texas SOS site. Better to just check tomorrow

 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Usually updates around 11pm on the Texas SOS site. Better to just check tomorrow

 

If @immamac gave us a thread that looked like this there would be much bitching.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

[StassneyHorn 6573]

copy/pasting from 2022 thread. Can try searching the twitters as well. One thing I enjoyed when tracking was to see how the top 8 counties outvoted the rest of the state. I can't remember if Election day pushed it to a nice factoid that the top 7 counties outvote the rest of Texas.

 

If you can't wait til the morning and noontime updates on the SOS website, county clerk offices have election departments on their website that usually update around 10 every night. Posting the top 5 counties below for reference. I generally just search "XXXXX County clerks elections" and look for totals on the website cause I'm a loser. 

https://www.harrisvotes.com/Election-Results/Election-Reports - just click early voting on the left

https://www.dallascountyvotes.org/early-voting-information/earlyvotingreports/ -3 options

https://www.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/current-election-information.html -Daily Count of Early Voters In-Person and Mail Totals

https://www.bexar.org/1568/Elections-Department - banner says view Early Vote totals

https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/departments/elections/current-election/#daily-totals - click the daily pdf

Edited October 22 by StassneyHorn

[tx 3 putt 76870]

we need a bigger turn out 

[Huckleberry 32848]

It was 128k on the first day in 2020.

[wild_turkey 3159]

It was 128k on the first day in 2020.

Well since we’re historically a red state, maybe lower numbers would be an indicator that long term Republican voters are underwhelmed with their candidate this time. Wishful thinking?

[Huckleberry 32848]

Harris County isn't red but it's been noted that COVID changed everything. Historically Democrats have had a higher percentage of election day votes and it could just mean things are trending back to "normal."

[Huckleberry 32848]

The old top 15 counties Texas early voting tracker chart is back!

For those who don't think voting habits can be predicted take a look at that baby. We can pretty much guess within a decent range how many people will early vote in-person once today's totals are posted because it's going to follow the same pattern. 2020 says "Compressed" because I matched it to the standard number of early voting days that we had every other year.

The only deviation in the patterns is that Halloween being right in the middle of the week on a Wednesday in 2018 apparently mattered.

Edited October 22 by Huckleberry

[swraith 345]

One should not wait until the last Friday of early voting to go vote.

[Huckleberry 32848]

Sunday is easily the lightest day even considering the compressed hours. 58% as many hours and anywhere from 35-45% as many voters. Get there right at noon on Sunday and that's probably your best bet for the shortest lines.

[StassneyHorn 6573]

4 of the top 5 have posted from what I can tell. My phone hates Austin for not numbering their excel and hates Tarrant . I’m at 2%. Fish around the sites. Collin and Denton will probably be live too

[mycox 582]

1 hour ago, swraith said:

One should not wait until the last Friday of early voting to go vote.

Why is that?

[swraith 345]

22 minutes ago, mycox said:

Why is that?

The graph posted by Huckleberry shows it has the highest number of early voters. 

[bluto 4912]

Very early but no bueno in Nevada so far

 

[CTC2 2791]

7 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Yea, but people are stupid.

I can't vote till Wednesday when I am back in town. I am more excited to vote than I was before the game this weekend and my annual "Christmas in November, " deer season opening day, combined. Fuck drump/cruz

Actually her plan excluded an important point that was in his. Trump’s version created a huge loophole where executive bonuses could be classified as tips. Harris’ was limited to the types of workers whom you would normally think of as being tipped. 

Edited October 22 by CTC2

[Huckleberry 32848]

With Tarrant and Galveston Counties still to report, the top 15* counties have already reported the largest number of first day early in- person votes ever. 

 

* - top 15 by number of RVs except I'm still using Cameron instead of Bell (Bell passed Cameron in RVs in 2022) because they're still so close in numbers and that way it's an apples to apples behavioral comparison.

[Huckleberry 32848]

With Tarrant County posting their numbers on their site I'm only missing Galveston County. But even without them, the 15 counties have now posted the highest percentage of RVs to vote in-person on day one of early voting ever. I've got Galveston in the denominator already so that percentage will only go up once they report. 

4.6% of registered voters in the 15 voted in-person yesterday. Previous high was 4.5% on day one in 2020. 2016 was 4.0% which may be more directly comparable without any COVID impact to weed out. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

14 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

With Tarrant County posting their numbers on their site I'm only missing Galveston County. But even without them, the 15 counties have now posted the highest percentage of RVs to vote in-person on day one of early voting ever. I've got Galveston in the denominator already so that percentage will only go up once they report. 

4.6% of registered voters in the 15 voted in-person yesterday. Previous high was 4.5% on day one in 2020. 2016 was 4.0% which may be more directly comparable without any COVID impact to weed out. 

https://www.galvestonvotes.org/voter-information/voter-rosters

10/21/2024 voter roster

[Huckleberry 32848]

Remember that 2020 day one looks higher because I compressed the 3 weeks of early voting into the 2 week graph. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

GEORGIA


MICHIGAN


NORTH CAROLINA

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

With Tarrant and Galveston Counties still to report, the top 15* counties have already reported the largest number of first day early in- person votes ever. 

 

* - top 15 by number of RVs except I'm still using Cameron instead of Bell (Bell passed Cameron in RVs in 2022) because they're still so close in numbers and that way it's an apples to apples behavioral comparison.

I thought Harris came in slightly less than 2020 numbers.

Rant: For the past few election cycles, I would often compare current turnout to previous turnouts for the counties. Run some analysis. The new Texas SOS website is about as horrible of a site that I've seen in a while. You can eventually get to the data but search functionality is poor. Whoever put that together is incompetent. 

[Huckleberry 32848]

Based on day one we should expect about 6,175,000 early in-person voters from the top 15 counties, or 50.4% of registered voters there. 

2016 was 4.19M at 42.9%, 2020 was 5.95M at 53.5% (but with an extra week).

[Huckleberry 32848]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I thought Harris came in slightly less than 2020 numbers.

Rant: For the past few election cycles, I would often compare current turnout to previous turnouts for the counties. Run some analysis. The new Texas SOS website is about as horrible of a site that I've seen in a while. You can eventually get to the data but search functionality is poor. Whoever put that together is incompetent. 

It did but I'm talking about combined they did it, not each of them doing it individually. Obviously 2020 was WAY ahead at this point if you include mail ballots. But in person was higher yesterday even as a percentage of registered voters. 

[KYHorn 17014]

On 10/21/2024 at 12:28 PM, StassneyHorn said:

There is now a 325k gap between mail-in in favor of Dems in Pennsylvania

 

19 hours ago, Js1 said:

He said that PA mail-in ballots for indies are usually 70/30 Dem, so (D - R )+ .7(indies) = 500k is when Dems should feel good about their firewall if they can hit that by Election Day 

Worth remembering for election day that PA cannot begin counting these ballots until election day, which took 4 days in 2020, so initial returns on election night will be skewed. 

[sidis 9823]

Purely anecdotal but I have early voted at the ymca at 12th and Lamar for the last five cycles and I have always just walked in and voted in fewer than 5 mins. I’ve been standing in line waiting for 45 mins so far and I’m still not to the front. Never been like this. 

[Huckleberry 32848]

Disclaimers: This chart assumes each county early votes with the same split as 2020 which basis in lots of other questionable assumptions. It also uses compressed 2020 early voting into a 12 day schedule. It's intended to give a general view on early voting motivation. Bottom line is a slightly more R electorate than 2020's early voting start based on geography. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33864]

yeah, just read that a lot of R's are voting early when they haven't previously. hoping that means they'll run out of steam early. yup, going with that

[immamac 42835]

11 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

yeah, just read that a lot of R's are voting early when they haven't previously. hoping that means they'll run out of steam early. yup, going with that

this isn't how that works. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33864]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

this isn't how that works. 

'splain. I meant that if in the past most R's voted on election day and now many are choosing to vote early, any gains they realize will be front-loaded, instead of rear-loaded as it was previously. I'm thinking we'll have a pretty good idea where things stand at the start of the day on 5 Nov. that hasn't really been the case in the past

[immamac 42835]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

'splain. I meant that if in the past most R's voted on election day and now many are choosing to vote early, any gains they realize will be front-loaded, instead of rear-loaded as it was previously. I'm thinking we'll have a pretty good idea where things stand at the start of the day on 5 Nov. that hasn't really been the case in the past

And I'm saying they aren't voting early. Turnout always favors one party and it doesn't start with R 

[Dbeasy 15042]

Voting done. No line this morning. I’m a great American. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33864]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

And I'm saying they aren't voting early. Turnout always favors one party and it doesn't start with R 

except that I just read that they are voting early more than normal. why are you arguing with me on this? lol

 

here, read it for yourself: Early-voting data shows Republican reversal appears to be paying off

[immamac 42835]

Because they aren't voting for trump. Maybe you mean registered republicans. A lot of them are voting for kamala. 

[SydneyCarton 48054]

2 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Based on day one we should expect about 6,175,000 early in-person voters from the top 15 counties, or 50.4% of registered voters there. 

2016 was 4.19M at 42.9%, 2020 was 5.95M at 53.5% (but with an extra week).

I'm not sure what it does to your assumptions, folks, but it's worth noting the population of Texas has estimated to have increasd by 500-550k since 2020. So you've half a million-ish new voters (based on population growth alone, obviously not including people who have turned 18 in the last 4 years) and netted about 675k new voters. Considering the aforementioned people voting in their first presidential election...turnout don't feel all that great compared to 2020. 

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

Worth remembering for election day that PA cannot begin counting these ballots until election day, which took 4 days in 2020, so initial returns on election night will be skewed. 

I've been chastised for this before, but as Longhorn_Fan68 points out, the vastly reduced amount of ballots that can't be counted till after election day will be very much reduced this cycle, and having a call within 24 hours isn't out of the question. 

22 minutes ago, immamac said:

And I'm saying they aren't voting early. Turnout always favors one party and it doesn't start with R 

The guy literally showed you data otherwise, and we have data from other sources as well. Such as massively increased voter turnout in overwhelmingly rural counties in Texas. 

Almost like one party got the message to vote early, and also the message that they have to muddy the waters by front loading election night.

13 minutes ago, immamac said:

Because they aren't voting for trump. Maybe you mean registered republicans. A lot of them are voting for kamala. 

Oh, I see, you're just wish-casting here. Nevermind. 

[immamac 42835]

Believe what you want. Trump isn't picking voters up and enthusiasm is low. Fundraising is in the shitter spend is down and he has been canceling major events on the campaign trail. 

All of that doesn't add up to "higher turnout and more votes" it's not wish-casting its looking at what's happening and not being hystrical or buying into the stupid hype. 

[SydneyCarton 48054]

24 minutes ago, immamac said:

Believe what you want. Trump isn't picking voters up and enthusiasm is low. Fundraising is in the shitter spend is down and he has been canceling major events on the campaign trail. 

All of that doesn't add up to "higher turnout and more votes" it's not wish-casting its looking at what's happening and not being hystrical or buying into the stupid hype. 

Early voting returns for Republicans, particularly compared to previous cycles, would actually indiciate that voting enthusiasm is in fact up for Trump. Lots of data supporting that all over the place. You can make an assumption based on data, but it's just a guess. Or a wish, if you will. But making definitive statements like "trump isn't picking up voters" or "Republicans never vote early" is masquerading your opinions as factual statements. 

[immamac 42835]

Republicans have never actively campaigned for a Democrat. Registered Republicans have been defecting in large measurable quantities from MAGA. 

So no it doesn't mean shit for Trump. This election cycle isn't like any of the others but keep buying into McDonalds drive through stunts and barber shops who's energy bills have gone up 3x. 

The data isn't what you say it is, it's not tallied votes it's votes based on registration, which means little in an election that will have so much crossover or defection. Last cycle had plenty of defection and this one will be even higher. 

[Js1 85276]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Early voting returns for Republicans, particularly compared to previous cycles, would actually indiciate that voting enthusiasm is in fact up for Trum

I don’t think that’s what it means. I think the GOP just realized they should bank votes now instead of waiting. And Dems are comfortable with waiting until Election Day or voting in person when it’s available instead of mail/absentee. I think we will see a return to pre-2020. 2022 is more what 2024 will look like

Lest anyone forget, the Dems were flipping their shit at the early voting in 2022. And then more Dems showed up on E-Day and the panic subsided. 

[SydneyCarton 48054]

11 minutes ago, immamac said:

Republicans have never actively campaigned for a Democrat. Registered Republicans have been defecting in large measurable quantities from MAGA. 

So no it doesn't mean shit for Trump. This election cycle isn't like any of the others but keep buying into McDonalds drive through stunts and barber shops who's energy bills have gone up 3x. 

The data isn't what you say it is, it's not tallied votes it's votes based on registration, which means little in an election that will have so much crossover or defection. Last cycle had plenty of defection and this one will be even higher. 

You said Republicans never vote early. But they're voting early, which is a stark contrast to their historical precedents. And you're making a super specious claim that becuase they're voting early, it's becuase they're defecting? Even if they were defecting, why would they fucking buck all of their natural behaviors becuase they're pulling a different lever? As if they said "OH shit, I'm voting against Trump, well NOW I'd better go on a different day to vote!" It makes no fucking sense, AND it's contrary to human nature.

Yeah, it's votes based on registration. You said Republicans never vote early. And now they're voting early. You can read into that all you like, but the only inarguable thing here is that voting behavior has fucking changed for Republicans. 

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don’t think that’s what it means. I think the GOP just realized they should bank votes now instead of waiting. And Dems are comfortable with waiting until Election Day or voting in person when it’s available instead of mail/absentee. I think we will see a return to pre-2020. 2022 is more what 2024 will look like

Lest anyone forget, the Dems were flipping their shit at the early voting in 2022. And then more Dems showed up on E-Day and the panic subsided. 

You mean, it's like GOP voters got a message and changed their behavior? No shit. Immamac literally saying only democrats ever voted early, as if the entire 2020 election wasn't basically a storyline of how Republicans always voted early, but covid and Trump saying you can't turst mail in ballots was fucking with their ingrained voting behavior. 

[Js1 85276]

Yep. It’s not really more enthusiasm, I think it’s a reversion to how things were 

[GenXer 2850]

4 hours ago, sidis said:

Purely anecdotal but I have early voted at the ymca at 12th and Lamar for the last five cycles and I have always just walked in and voted in fewer than 5 mins. I’ve been standing in line waiting for 45 mins so far and I’m still not to the front. Never been like this. 

Same for me in collin county’s corner in Dallas. 100 people in front of me.