Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[Js1 85,277]

Didn't get a chance until now to look at who turned out where in Harris County

2500 in Jersey Village
2500 in East Harris County
2500 in Freeman Branch Library (Clear Lake)
2400 in GHWB Library (Klein)
2100 HCC West Loop South
3200 Jeurgens Hall (Cypress)
3400 Kingwood
2300 Klein
3300 Metropolian Mutiservice Center (inner loop)
2600 PVA&M NW
2600 Nottingham Park (Memorial)
4000 Weekley (Cypress)
2300 SPJ Lodge (Heights)
2600 Steve Radack (Cypress/Katy)
3000 Trini Mendenhall (Spring Branch)

[Huckleberry 32,848]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Didn't get a chance until now to look at who turned out where in Harris County

2500 in Jersey Village
2500 in East Harris County
2500 in Freeman Branch Library (Clear Lake)
2400 in GHWB Library (Klein)
2100 HCC West Loop South
3200 Jeurgens Hall (Cypress)
3400 Kingwood
2300 Klein
3300 Metropolian Mutiservice Center (inner loop)
2600 PVA&M NW
2600 Nottingham Park (Memorial)
4000 Weekley (Cypress)
2300 SPJ Lodge (Heights)
2600 Steve Radack (Cypress/Katy)
3000 Trini Mendenhall (Spring Branch)

Hi!

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Top 15 counties Day 2 vote totals will be lower than Day 1 with Tarrant and Galveston still to report. That's fairly unusual, the only other time it happened since I've been tracking (starting in 2014) was 2018. Ted Cruz ruins everything.

[SydneyCarton 48,056]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Top 15 counties Day 2 vote totals will be lower than Day 1 with Tarrant and Galveston still to report. That's fairly unusual, the only other time it happened since I've been tracking (starting in 2014) was 2018. Ted Cruz ruins everything.

Really? I always assumed every day would be less than the previous 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

38 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Really? I always assumed every day would be less than the previous 

Sir, I don't post the 2010 style line graphs for my health. 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Steepest D1 to D2 in-person drop we've seen. Overall the R counties dropped very very slightly more based on 2020 vote percentage weighting. Bad news for D hopes is that the 3 of the 4 counties ahead of their 2020 pace are R (Galveston, Denton, Brazoria with Cameron the only D). Good news is that the steepest early vote drop is Montgomery. 

[Valmy77 13,225]

Well that isn't good for my copium.

[Js1 85,277]

1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

Well that isn't good for my copium.

Stressing over day to day swings is horrible for your mental health. 

[ConferenceRoom 6,141]

Just now, Js1 said:

Stressing over day to day swings is horrible for your mental health. 

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/forum/6-recruiting/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

Keep the analysis coming. I'm skeptical that even a Trump-Cruz combo will do much to narrow the gap from 2018 and 2020. I see it being closer than 2020 but there are just so many TX votes that Dems need to find or flip. 

[SydneyCarton 48,056]

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Stressing over day to day swings Texas voting results is horrible for your mental health. 

FIFY

[Js1 85,277]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

FIFY

[Valmy77 13,225]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Stressing over day to day swings is horrible for your mental health. 

Agreed. Glad this part of my stress will be over in less than 2 weeks.

[Js1 85,277]

Harris County just under their 2020 day 1 total, on par with day 2 and beat day 3

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Harris County just under their 2020 day 1 total, on par with day 2 and beat day 3

One thing to remember is that 2020 had 5 additional days of early voting compared to 2016 and 2024. While these comparison charts may demonstrate enthusiasm, I would assume that 2024 won't surpass 2020 by the end of early voting. 

[Valmy77 13,225]

They might exceed slightly, but only because there are more voters in Harris County in 2024 overall. 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Update through D3. Looks like Day 1 was big and now we're settling into the 2016 pattern. D3 joins D2 in being more weighted to blue counties than D1 was. But these are only super slight gains. Poor turnout in Dallas and Bexar Counties are issues for Democrats.

[SydneyCarton 48,056]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Harris County just under their 2020 day 1 total, on par with day 2 and beat day 3

 

38 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

One thing to remember is that 2020 had 5 additional days of early voting compared to 2016 and 2024. While these comparison charts may demonstrate enthusiasm, I would assume that 2024 won't surpass 2020 by the end of early voting. 

 

34 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

They might exceed slightly, but only because there are more voters in Harris County in 2024 overall. 

This is all of my instinct as well. You can't get up for this election versus 2020? Fuck you, Harris County (I live in Harris County). 

[sushihorn 3,233]

52 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

 

This is all of my instinct as well. You can't get up for this election versus 2020? Fuck you, Harris County (I live in Harris County). 

If you use 2020 as a baseline for turnout, you will be very disappointed. Without mass mail balloting, turnout is down pretty much everywhere. Here in Texas, that is less of a factor since we didn’t get elevated numbers from mail but return to normal early voting will have an impact here  

What we are seeing is depressed urban turnout, which reflects national trends. Target Smart has our early vote as 32% rural, 37% suburban and 31% urban. By comparison, the 2020 early vote 13 days out was 21% rural, 35% suburban and 44% urban. That’s an 11 point shift from urban to rural, with another 3 points bleeding to the suburbs. 
 

A swing state example: the early electorate in NC is 6.6% more rural than in 2020. Two thirds of that is at the expense of the cities. That same trend in NV is driving the wild EV numbers out of that state. 

[Js1 85,277]

2 hours ago, sushihorn said:

If you use 2020 as a baseline for turnout, you will be very disappointed. Without mass mail balloting, turnout is down pretty much everywhere. Here in Texas, that is less of a factor since we didn’t get elevated numbers from mail but return to normal early voting will have an impact here  

What we are seeing is depressed urban turnout, which reflects national trends. Target Smart has our early vote as 32% rural, 37% suburban and 31% urban. By comparison, the 2020 early vote 13 days out was 21% rural, 35% suburban and 44% urban. That’s an 11 point shift from urban to rural, with another 3 points bleeding to the suburbs. 
 

A swing state example: the early electorate in NC is 6.6% more rural than in 2020. Two thirds of that is at the expense of the cities. That same trend in NV is driving the wild EV numbers out of that state. 

agree, baselining any 2024 numbers to 2020 is bad.  Once in a lifetime type of election year 

I like seeing HC keeping pace with 2020, but I’m well aware we will have a high number of eday voters 

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

I know it’s been touched on, but someone remind me why I can ignore the alarm bells being raised by Ralston in NV.

[flatdawgs 1,277]

Somewhat interesting trend in WA that I've not figured out yet. Of course we are a dark blue state, so no worries there (most recent poll has Harris +20, although this will probably end up being 14-16%), but right now ballots returned are at about 60% of 2020 levels as of Election Day -13. Since WA is a 100% vote by mail state and has been for many years, the pandemic really shouldn't account for much difference in ballots received or timing here between 2020 and 2024.

 

Although the state is safely blue, there is one House seat that barely flipped R to D in 2022, and one other that could be in play, worst-case scenario. I'm definitely following this with interest and the hope that for whatever reason the voters are just a bit late this year. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19,416]

any update on the PA firewall? 

[Gap03 3,303]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know it’s been touched on, but someone remind me why I can ignore the alarm bells being raised by Ralston in NV.

There was some mention of delays in reporting from Washoe / Reno.  Not sure how much they impacted the R advantage, though.

[Js1 85,277]

7 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

There was some mention of delays in reporting from Washoe / Reno.  Not sure how much they impacted the R advantage, though.

Mostly that and some weird reporting on NPAs in Clark. But a lot of it is delays in reporting - a big backlog in Washoe and Clark updates overnight  

[Js1 85,277]

12 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Somewhat interesting trend in WA that I've not figured out yet. Of course we are a dark blue state, so no worries there (most recent poll has Harris +20, although this will probably end up being 14-16%), but right now ballots returned are at about 60% of 2020 levels as of Election Day -13. Since WA is a 100% vote by mail state and has been for many years, the pandemic really shouldn't account for much difference in ballots received or timing here between 2020 and 2024.

 

Although the state is safely blue, there is one House seat that barely flipped R to D in 2022, and one other that could be in play, worst-case scenario. I'm definitely following this with interest and the hope that for whatever reason the voters are just a bit late this year. 

Well the WA primary results did indicate about D+3 at the House level and that the Dems clawed back some rural and Latino support that may or may not translate nationwide, but the 2016 WA primary results foretold that Clinton was going to hit rock bottom with WWC rural voters.

[sushihorn 3,233]

14 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know it’s been touched on, but someone remind me why I can ignore the alarm bells being raised by Ralston in NV.

It represents 20% cumulative turnout. We are analyzing the data we have, not a complete data set or even a representative sample, not yet. 

[StassneyHorn 6,574]

I am ready to call Michigan and Pennsylvania. This election is over.

 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Dallas County with a huge drop today. Focus on Harris might need to be redirected because Dallas is more Democratic and worse at voting. Sure there are only 56% as many registered voters but it would be a major boost. 

Edited October 25 by Huckleberry

[Huckleberry 32,848]

To add to the above, Dallas County's four day total in terms of percent of registered voters who have early voted barely beats Harris County's first three days.

Get your shit together, Dallas County.

[StassneyHorn 6,574]

I posted in another thread but the Metroplex has something like 8 of the 10 largest counties percentage wise for new registrations from last election. Absolutely squeeze Houston, but work that gets done in DFW will have a ton of benefits down ballot and Allred being the “local” favorite helps a ton.

[SydneyCarton 48,056]

Just now, StassneyHorn said:

I posted in another thread but the Metroplex has something like 8 of the 10 largest counties percentage wise for new registrations from last election. Absolutely squeeze Houston, but work that gets done in DFW will have a ton of benefits down ballot and Allred being the “local” favorite helps a ton.

They may have new registrations but they sure don’t seem to be using them. 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Dallas County probably has an "I registered" sticker.

[berlinerbaer 670]

It seems Dems are crushing the mail-in vote in PA and elsewhere. Then I keep hearing that the Rs are keeping pace or even leading with early in-person voting. So is the partisan discrepancy more between mail vs. in-person than it is early vs. Election Day?

Where that discrepancy lies will be the difference between a close race and Harris blowing Trump out a la Fetterman - Oz.

[StassneyHorn 6,574]

6 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

They may have new registrations but they sure don’t seem to be using them. 

Time will tell. New registrations usually signal interest vs the guy whose been registered for 3 cycle and has no history.

[Firemans4Horn 18,034]

22 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

To add to the above, Dallas County's four day total in terms of percent of registered voters who have early voted barely beats Harris County's first three days.

Get your shit together, Dallas County.

 

we have pathetic turnout in Dallas county, particularly in the lowest income areas. Our mayoral race is lucky to get more than 5% turnout. 

[Huckleberry 32,848]

Oh shit. The Spurs just kicked the Mavericks' ass.

Bexar County had more early voters on D4 than D3, bucking all historical trends. Despite having 86.7% as many RVs they had 20% more votes on D4 than Dallas County.

Edited October 25 by Huckleberry

[sushihorn 3,233]

3 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

It seems Dems are crushing the mail-in vote in PA and elsewhere. Then I keep hearing that the Rs are keeping pace or even leading with early in-person voting. So is the partisan discrepancy more between mail vs. in-person than it is early vs. Election Day?

Where that discrepancy lies will be the difference between a close race and Harris blowing Trump out a la Fetterman - Oz.

Mail in skews D and IPEV skews R everywhere I’ve seen. Historically, ED skews R relative to EV. We’re seeing voter behavior change this cycle so there’s little basis to determine how much of the R strength in EV reflects turnout of low propensity and new voter vs time shift of existing voters that will cannibalize ED turnout to a large degree. The NV blog posted stuff tonight suggesting there is a big partisan gap in turnout by the low propensity vote. OTOH the pro GOP EV gap did shrink a bit today. 

[tx 3 putt 76,870]

15 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

One thing to remember is that 2020 had 5 additional days of early voting compared to 2016 and 2024. While these comparison charts may demonstrate enthusiasm, I would assume that 2024 won't surpass 2020 by the end of early voting. 

 

all of this 

the current pace is slacking 

[Js1 85,277]

9 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Our mayoral race is lucky to get more than 5% turnout. 

Off cycle Texas elections are ass. 2023 mayoral in Houston was pretty bad too

[SubliminalHorn 6,786]

So is it time to start panicking yet? Repubs seem to think it’s over and it’ll be a blowout. 

[SydneyCarton 48,056]

7 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So is it time to start panicking yet? Repubs seem to think it’s over and it’ll be a blowout. 

It’s always time to panic. 

[Js1 85,277]

18 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So is it time to start panicking yet? Repubs seem to think it’s over and it’ll be a blowout. 

That’s how you know they’re wrong. Bc they said the same thing in 2022 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

18 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So is it time to start panicking yet? Repubs seem to think it’s over and it’ll be a blowout. 

This thing is going to be close.  I saw a +5 Harris poll in Michigan drop yesterday.

[softlynow 1,812]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:10 AM, Huckleberry said:

Steepest D1 to D2 in-person drop we've seen. Overall the R counties dropped very very slightly more based on 2020 vote percentage weighting. Bad news for D hopes is that the 3 of the 4 counties ahead of their 2020 pace are R (Galveston, Denton, Brazoria with Cameron the only D). Good news is that the steepest early vote drop is Montgomery. 

The entire drop D1 to D2 in MoCo was counted mail-in votes. Votes cast in person has risen each day of EV:

 

[SubliminalHorn 6,786]

I just need someone to slap me around a bit so I can get a hold of myself 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,509]

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Off cycle Texas elections are ass. 2023 mayoral in Houston was pretty bad too

Too many Texans are apathetic about voting. I helped with some Beto phone banks in 2018. That experience left me disheartened. My role wasn’t even to convince them to vote for Beto. It was only to see if they planned to vote and direct them where to find voting locations. After 90 minutes I never once got to the voting location part of the script.

[NAVY 6,740]

2 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I just need someone to slap me around a bit so I can get a hold of myself 

 

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

So is it time to start panicking yet? Repubs seem to think it’s over and it’ll be a blowout. 

I’ve fallen into this train of thought a few times, here’s what keeps me sane.

1) With so many potential swing states, that means so many different sets containing potentially ugly data. Reminder: she doesn’t need to win even a majority of them. If she wins WI/MI/PA - the states she is consistently doing the best in - she wins, regardless of what happens with all the rest.
2) Republicans have emphasized early voting at unprecedented levels this year. Assuming there will be an Election Day gap between parties as large as in previous years, which basically every red pundit is doing, is a very dangerous assumption.
3) 2020 was a fucking weird ass year. Drawing any conclusions from comparing voting pattern data between now and then is a fool’s errand.
4) Democrats panic when they are told they have a 75% chance to win something. Republicans start bragging when they are told they have a 51% chance to win something. Never forget this.

[Js1 85,277]

10 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

2) Republicans have emphasized early voting at unprecedented levels this year. Assuming there will be an Election Day gap between parties as large as in previous years, which basically every red pundit is doing, is a very dangerous assumption.

We are at the “democrats freak out about early voting” stage like we were in 2022. The EDay voting will be 50/50 or close to it. GOP don’t hate early voting as much the last 2 years 

29 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I just need someone to slap me around a bit

Just say you like it rough, girl. No judgement here