Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[Js1 85294]

 

Biden won NC indies by 4.  Do I think she's going to win them 60-40? No, but I do think she's likely winning 8-10% of Republicans. 

[SubliminalHorn 6786]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Biden won NC indies by 4.  Do I think she's going to win them 60-40? No, but I do think she's likely winning 8-10% of Republicans. 

See this is the kind of rough play I needed this morning

[BamaATL 16593]

For all the the media and pollsters saying that there is more Republican EV participation than in the past, based on Georgia Data, that appears true.  Except, that's not the full story, essentially speaking they are talking out of 2 sides of their mouths.  Yes, EV likely Republican returns are in fact higher, as the data dump last night 6.3% of people that voted day of 2020 (likely Republican) have now voted early.  But 6% of more participation doesn't remotely reflect the at least 25% bump in EV we are now projected to have here.  

Of course every state is different, so results may vary.  However, the truth, at least as Georgia is concerned, is this, previous non voters and indy's are driving this; ie. previous voters with low engagement.  Now not all of that vote will break the Harris way, but I'd bet more of it does than doesn't.  I strongly suspect that this is going on everywhere.  

When this is all over, and the pollsters and media (which will do nothing but blame the pollsters) all have egg on their face, one of the things they will point to is over-representation of Republican voters, and under representation of low engagement of previous non participants.  

[BamaATL 16593]

Just to be a little clearer, one candidate is driving enthusiastic turnout from a group(s) that previously haven't had to be accounted for.  

I'll let you guess who is who.  

[SydneyCarton 48063]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Biden won NC indies by 4.  Do I think she's going to win them 60-40? No, but I do think she's likely winning 8-10% of Republicans. 

You don’t think 60-40 break for independents in NC is reasonable? Based on everything we’ve seen discussed, it appears Independents seem to be breaking in favor of Harris. 60/40 versus 56/44 for Biden doesn’t even seem remotely like a stretch. 

[Js1 85294]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You don’t think 60-40 break for independents in NC is reasonable? Based on everything we’ve seen discussed, it appears Independents seem to be breaking in favor of Harris. 60/40 versus 56/44 for Biden doesn’t even seem remotely like a stretch. 

Biden won them 50-46 in NC. I think she should win them 55-45 or close to that. Which means 6-7% of Republicans are choosing here, which is in line with polling 

Edited October 25 by Js1

[sushihorn 3233]

Bama, if your theory is correct you should be looking at changes in party registration for clues on how the new voters will trend. The moves in party affiliation is one thing that has Ralston concerned in NV. IIRC correctly, Washoe County (Reno) went from 50/50 to R+4 or 5 since 2020. 

[immamac 42838]

I said this in another thread. Registered R doesn't mean shit this cycle either. There are going to be a ton more cross party votes than 2020 where there was only a few. 

Sane people are tired of this shit and there are just enough sane R where it's going to matter ~10% is still a massive loss or defection because it's a swing of that many votes. There aren't MORE MAGA than 2020. Peak MAGA is over and has been for years as proven by 2022. 

[aggie08 21492]

This is where I keep finding hope. Independents will favor Harris. 99% of Democrats are voting Harris, or, at worst, voting Jill Stein. At least one out of every 10 Republicans is jumping ship. Makes you wonder how many ultimately stay home.

[Js1 85294]

7 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Bama, if your theory is correct you should be looking at changes in party registration for clues on how the new voters will trend. The moves in party affiliation is one thing that has Ralston concerned in NV. IIRC correctly, Washoe County (Reno) went from 50/50 to R+4 or 5 since 2020. 

One of the reasons for that was the AVR law in NV since 2020 just automatically registering everyone as NPA for new registrations 

Edited October 25 by Js1

[BamaATL 16593]

8 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Bama, if your theory is correct you should be looking at changes in party registration for clues on how the new voters will trend. The moves in party affiliation is one thing that has Ralston concerned in NV. IIRC correctly, Washoe County (Reno) went from 50/50 to R+4 or 5 since 2020. 

Well, that wouldn't really work here, for a couple of reasons.  Party affiliation in Georgia has been steadily declining for years, and indy's are well on the rise.  Part of that has to do with our laws, they are very Indy friendly.  Additionally, we get no publicly released data early on party participation here.  So what you'd be left with is data on which party is losing registrations more, while at the same time turnout is up.  Basically, those two things don't mesh into anything that one can infer.  

[SydneyCarton 48063]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Well, that wouldn't really work here, for a couple of reasons.  Party affiliation in Georgia has been steadily declining for years, and indy's are well on the rise.  Part of that has to do with our laws, they are very Indy friendly.  Additionally, we get no publicly released data early on party participation here.  So what you'd be left with is data on which party is losing registrations more, while at the same time turnout is up.  Basically, those two things don't mesh into anything that one can infer.  

What is an "Independant Friendly Law?"

[sushihorn 3233]

13 minutes ago, immamac said:

 Peak MAGA is over and has been for years as proven by 2022. 

That statement doesn’t seem to be supported by the numbers. The 2022 electorate was slightly more Republican than polls indicated: R+2.8 actual vs R+2.5 polling average. That translated into fewer seats than pundits expected because their advantage was not efficiently distributed. That was analogous to the popular vote vs Electoral College. 

[Js1 85294]

3 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That statement doesn’t seem to be supported by the numbers. The 2022 electorate was slightly more Republican than polls indicated: R+2.8 actual vs R+2.5 polling average. That translated into fewer seats than pundits expected because their advantage was not efficiently distributed. That was analogous to the popular vote vs Electoral College. 

Big reason why Trump’s EC advantage is much smaller. Harris can win the EC with as small as a 0.5% PV win bc Dems were much stronger in the blue wall in 2022 than the sun belt.

But it’s unlikely to be that small of a margin 

Racking up bigger wins in TX/FL and reducing her margins in CA/NY doesn't mean shit for the EC if she still wins MI, PA, WI

Edited October 25 by Js1

[Js1 85294]

19 minutes ago, immamac said:

I said this in another thread. Registered R doesn't mean shit this cycle either. There are going to be a ton more cross party votes than 2020 where there was only a few. 

Sane people are tired of this shit and there are just enough sane R where it's going to matter ~10% is still a massive loss or defection because it's a swing of that many votes. There aren't MORE MAGA than 2020. Peak MAGA is over and has been for years as proven by 2022. 

It's true.

Polls oversampling Trumpier demos, like WWC men, ignores college educated men and suburban women voting for Harris.

[BamaATL 16593]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What is an "Independant Friendly Law?"

Every election, save primaries, are open, with no impediment at all for those not party affiliated.  Primaries are closed here.  That wasn't always the case, but has been for some time now.  The result, less and less people feel the need to be tied to a party.  

[immamac 42838]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

That statement doesn’t seem to be supported by the numbers. The 2022 electorate was slightly more Republican than polls indicated: R+2.8 actual vs R+2.5 polling average. That translated into fewer seats than pundits expected because their advantage was not efficiently distributed. That was analogous to the popular vote vs Electoral College. 

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout

Peak MAGA is over. You are talking about margins not total turnout. Turnout was down, down more than 2018. People aren't fired up and full of piss and vinegar to vote for MAGA or trumpy shit. They almost got swept on candidates supported by DJT in 2022 and normie republicans who were trying to get the party back to sanity were what were voted for in 2022. 

Peak MAGA will never happen again with DJT at the helm, he's too sloppy his message has gotten too extreme and people are just tired of his bullshit. Sure 30% of the electorate is fucking racist crazy pieces of shit, but the other 70% want shit to go back to normal. That 30% number isn't growing, it's shrinking and that 70% number isn't shrinking it's growing. The number of apathetic non-voters is hopefully also going down, but I haven't seen anything that leads me to believe that is the case outside of Black Women who will once again save our country. 

[sushihorn 3233]

13 minutes ago, immamac said:

https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results,_2022:_Analysis_of_voter_turnout

Peak MAGA is over. You are talking about margins not total turnout. Turnout was down, down more than 2018

GOP total votes for US House increased 7% from 2018 to 2022: 50.8 million to 54.2 million. Democrat total House votes fell by 15% in that same time frame. So overall turnout dropped but the impact was confined to the Dems. I’m not sure how that could be interpreted as a rejection of Trump or the Rs. 

[Js1 85294]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

GOP total votes for US House increased 7% from 2018 to 2022: 50.8 million to 54.2 million. Democrat total House votes fell by 15% in that same time frame. So overall turnout dropped but the impact was confined to the Dems. I’m not sure how that could be interpreted as a rejection of Trump or the Rs. 

Well a lot of Dems still won and Dems kept the senate and barely lost the House. Should have been a pretty historic loss with the way inflation was. It wasn’t so much turnout as Republicans crossing over to vote D, and winning independents. 

[Js1 85294]

Early voting is much less blue than 2020 and yet Marist has Harris up 10 among EVs in NC/GA/AZ and the NYT poll has her +19 nationwide in early voting.

I don’t think the polling knows how to account for the crossover vote. 

[Valmy77 13225]

8 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

GOP total votes for US House increased 7% from 2018 to 2022: 50.8 million to 54.2 million. Democrat total House votes fell by 15% in that same time frame. So overall turnout dropped but the impact was confined to the Dems. I’m not sure how that could be interpreted as a rejection of Trump or the Rs. 

One of the problems with just looking at total votes for the US House is that there are so many unopposed seats. Like in my district John Carter ran unopposed in 2022 after having over 45% of the votes going to Democratic challengers in 2018 and 2020. So I guess if you just look at overall votes in my district one might think there was a massive shift rightwards, with everybody excitedly jumping on the MAGA bandwagon, but in fact there was simply no Democratic candidate.

But maybe you are accounting for this and only looking at races without unopposed candidates. Or those districts in California where you can have Democrats running against Democrats and Republicans running against Republicans in the general.

Edited October 25 by Valmy77

[GenXer 2850]

3 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Too many Texans are apathetic about voting. I helped with some Beto phone banks in 2018. That experience left me disheartened. My role wasn’t even to convince them to vote for Beto. It was only to see if they planned to vote and direct them where to find voting locations. After 90 minutes I never once got to the voting location part of the script.

I had a good experience doing this. 

The instructions I was given was to tell my personal story for why I was voting for beto. My story is healthcare, diabetes, ACA, yada yada yada. Everyone could empathize with my story except one guy.

I worked one phone bank at someone’s house, 4 phone banks at a weekly location, and hosted one in my house where I had recruited people to come.

I’m sure I changed no one’s vote with my calls. Interestingly enough, Cruz changed his messaging on ACA two weeks Before the election where he said he would protect healthcare and people with pre-existing conditions. I’m sure it was all due to my diligent efforts to raise awareness. 

The story you tell is important. I have a couple of neighbors that are gay that came to the phone bank I hosted. They left feeling dismayed. I can only imagine the reaction they got when telling their story to texans.

[immamac 42838]

Phone banking should consist of calling people fucking pussies if they don't vote and that they need to get their shit together and do their fucking duty as an American. 

Stop being nice to people who are shitting on the coolest and most important thing they can do as a citizen of the United States.

[immamac 42838]

27 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

GOP total votes for US House increased 7% from 2018 to 2022: 50.8 million to 54.2 million. Democrat total House votes fell by 15% in that same time frame. So overall turnout dropped but the impact was confined to the Dems. I’m not sure how that could be interpreted as a rejection of Trump or the Rs. 

you've also never looked at the cyclical nature of this? I said PEAK MAGA was over, not that MAGA was over. If 2024 goes the way it's going MAGA should get shoved back in the fucking closet and we'll never hear from these fucking idiots again in 2026 and 2028. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

10 minutes ago, GenXer said:

I had a good experience doing this. 

The instructions I was given was to tell my personal story for why I was voting for beto. My story is healthcare, diabetes, ACA, yada yada yada. Everyone could empathize with my story except one guy.

I worked one phone bank at someone’s house, 4 phone banks at a weekly location, and hosted one in my house where I had recruited people to come.

I’m sure I changed no one’s vote with my calls. Interestingly enough, Cruz changed his messaging on ACA two weeks Before the election where he said he would protect healthcare and people with pre-existing conditions. I’m sure it was all due to my diligent efforts to raise awareness. 

The story you tell is important. I have a couple of neighbors that are gay that came to the phone bank I hosted. They left feeling dismayed. I can only imagine the reaction they got when telling their story to texans.

good story but we had differing tasks. 

I was specifically a GOTV caller and told not to go off script for any reason. I had 15 minutes of training, and sat at home on my computer and phone. I called into a system that dialed out, and I just spoke to whomever answered. I was only calling people that Beto's campaign felt were his potential voters but most likely hadn't early voted yet. Most hung up on me or told me to f-off.

[SimonBolivar 10957]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

 No, but I do think she's likely winning 8-10% of Republicans. 

I really hope that we're not going to have to drive up to Denver with pitchforks on November 6th.

[sushihorn 3233]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

good story but we had differing tasks. 

I was specifically a GOTV caller and told not to go off script for any reason. I had 15 minutes of training, and sat at home on my computer and phone. I called into a system that dialed out, and I just spoke to whomever answered. I was only calling people that Beto's campaign felt were his potential voters but most likely hadn't early voted yet. Most hung up on me or told me to f-off.

A lot of people are sick of politics. That same phenomenon is the reason polling has become much less reliable.  5% is a good response rate these days. There’s a lot of room for non-response bias when 95% refuse to respond. 

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

30 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Or those districts in California where you can have Democrats running against Democrats and Republicans running against Republicans in the general.

You have that in WA also

[GenXer 2850]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

good story but we had differing tasks. 

I was specifically a GOTV caller and told not to go off script for any reason. I had 15 minutes of training, and sat at home on my computer and phone. I called into a system that dialed out, and I just spoke to whomever answered. I was only calling people that Beto's campaign felt were his potential voters but most likely hadn't early voted yet. Most hung up on me or told me to f-off.

I had the same training and used my laptop as well. It auto dialed for me as well.

The lists were likely different. I was told the strategy was to get everyone that voted for hillary in 2016 to vote in 2018. It was a “get off your ass and vote in the midterm, dumbass” strategy.  The list was only hillary voters until early Oct. After that, the list was anyone, everyone. I had plenty of hangups too. I just shrugged ‘em off.

Anyway, I appreciate the effort you put forth to try to rid us of cruz.

[sushihorn 3233]

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

you've also never looked at the cyclical nature of this? I said PEAK MAGA was over, not that MAGA was over. If 2024 goes the way it's going MAGA should get shoved back in the fucking closet and we'll never hear from these fucking idiots again in 2026 and 2028. 

MAGA in large part is a continuation of the Tea Party. Abolitionists were a minor party (Free Soil) until they allied with economic nationalists to form the GOP. Similarly, the Tea Party could tilt legislative elections (2010, 2014) but couldn’t unseat Obama. Adding economic nationalism created MAGA and elected a president. I see no indication it’s going away. We can certainly revisit in a few weeks. 

[sushihorn 3233]

Valmy, there’s no need to account for uncontested seats; they’ve always existed and always will. Unless there was an enormous and partisan increase in such races, it’s not going to be the cause of significant change. 

[Huckleberry 32849]

Dallas and Bexar Counties are the problems. Dallas fell behind Montgomery as the biggest 2020 to 2024 percentage drop in early voting.

[immamac 42838]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Dallas and Bexar Counties are the problems. Dallas fell behind Montgomery as the biggest 2020 to 2024 percentage drop in early voting.

not sure that the compressed metric is making it make sense tbh it's just too weird a year and doesn't really fit into the model for comparison. The numbers are big though which is nice.

[Dbeasy 15042]

5 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So is it time to start panicking yet? Repubs seem to think it’s over and it’ll be a blowout. 

I keep seeing bad poll results and stories about Republicans being confident it’s in the bag. It’s wigging me out. 

3 hours ago, aggie08 said:

This is where I keep finding hope. Independents will favor Harris. 99% of Democrats are voting Harris, or, at worst, voting Jill Stein. At least one out of every 10 Republicans is jumping ship. Makes you wonder how many ultimately stay home.

On a text thread of independents/ex-republicans  the question was asked how many friends this election are flipping from Republican to Harris. Every person on the thread knows a very significant number of people that fit into that category. And of course no one hardly is flipping from Biden to Trump. So that keeps me sane until Election Day. The polls have to be bs. 

[Gap03 3304]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Phone banking should consist of calling people fucking pussies if they don't vote and that they need to get their shit together and do their fucking duty as an American. 

Stop being nice to people who are shitting on the coolest and most important thing they can do as a citizen of the United States.

See, this is why folks like you and me don't need to be phone banking.  For some reason, people don't end up responding positively to being berated, even when they REALLY FUCKING deserve it.  Within about 30 seconds of talking to most folks, I'd be channeling my inner Murtaugh ...

 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I keep seeing bad poll results and stories about Republicans being confident it’s in the bag. It’s wigging me out. 

On a text thread of independents/ex-republicans  the question was asked how many friends this election are flipping from Republican to Harris. Every person on the thread knows a very significant number of people that fit into that category. And of course no one hardly is flipping from Biden to Trump. So that keeps me sane until Election Day. The polls have to be bs. 

That's the point.  Call it psy-ops or whatever you want to.  This is done to discourage people into thinking their vote doesn't matter, and it's targeted at Democratic voters.  

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

If I was a crossover voter and I didn’t want that known, no way would I answer a poll, at least not correctly. I would assume any stated choice will be logged next to my name and phone number, and that list is available for purchase by anyone with any agenda. 

[texasdago 7568]

4 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

4) Democrats panic when they are told they have a 75% chance to win something. Republicans start bragging when they are told they have a 51% chance to win something. Never forget this.

So aggy... cult, delusional, ignorant of facts

[immamac 42838]

31 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

See, this is why folks like you and me don't need to be phone banking.  For some reason, people don't end up responding positively to being berated, even when they REALLY FUCKING deserve it.  Within about 30 seconds of talking to most folks, I'd be channeling my inner Murtaugh ...

 

 

Who gives a shit. Fuck them they aren't voting anyway what worse thing could they do? Go vote? 

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

2 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

One of the problems with just looking at total votes for the US House is that there are so many unopposed seats. Like in my district John Carter ran unopposed in 2022 after having over 45% of the votes going to Democratic challengers in 2018 and 2020. So I guess if you just look at overall votes in my district one might think there was a massive shift rightwards, with everybody excitedly jumping on the MAGA bandwagon, but in fact there was simply no Democratic candidate.

But maybe you are accounting for this and only looking at races without unopposed candidates. Or those districts in California where you can have Democrats running against Democrats and Republicans running against Republicans in the general.

To add to this, 2022 was the first year the new district maps were in play. Tx31 went from R+3, and quickly moving left, to R+15 in the new gerrymander. There was zero Dem enthusiasm to challenge an R+15 seat, so Carter ran unopposed. He didn't even bother to put out campaign signs. It will be interesting to see how Whitlow fares this year. Anything less than R+10, and I don't think the gerrymander holds until 2030. Of course, Carter will be dead by then and one of his grandkids (or maybe Fitlump) will be in that seat. 

[Huckleberry 32849]

Dallas County came back strong today. In fact they had more votes today than any day so far.

[tx 3 putt 76874]

 

[Huckleberry 32849]

High turnout? lol

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

8 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

High turnout? lol

maybe they mean high demand and low output? the only reason it took an hour for me was because the three (bless their hearts) geriatric poll workers checking people in reminded me of the dmv sloth scene. At no point was anyone waiting on a machine - the slowdown was entirely getting people signed in.                                             

Edited October 26 by Longhorn_Fan68

[Huckleberry 32849]

Well if that's the case then good of them to adjust. 

[Bullneck 19073]

13 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Biden won NC indies by 4.  Do I think she's going to win them 60-40? No, but I do think she's likely winning 8-10% of Republicans. 

Woo hoo

Spoiler

 

 

 

[NorthLoop 14183]

13 hours ago, immamac said:

I said this in another thread. Registered R doesn't mean shit this cycle either. There are going to be a ton more cross party votes than 2020 where there was only a few. 

Sane people are tired of this shit and there are just enough sane R where it's going to matter ~10% is still a massive loss or defection because it's a swing of that many votes. There aren't MORE MAGA than 2020. Peak MAGA is over and has been for years as proven by 2022. 

Saw this today from a guy I went to HS with. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

17 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Saw this today from a guy I went to HS with. 

oh, I hate to break it to him, this shit doesn't go away with trump. he's the most grotesque symptom of the disease, but this bs is sticking around for a while. 

[NorthLoop 14183]

48 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

oh, I hate to break it to him, this shit doesn't go away with trump. he's the most grotesque symptom of the disease, but this bs is sticking around for a while. 

Oh I know - that's not the point though. The point is that there are plenty of Republicans that are voting for Harris, even in bumfuck east Texas towns like the one he lives in. 

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

52 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

oh, I hate to break it to him, this shit doesn't go away with trump. he's the most grotesque symptom of the disease, but this bs is sticking around for a while. 

Not if they’re willing to vote against it until things change.