Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[Huckleberry 32851]

[bluto 4915]

 

[Js1 85303]

3 minutes ago, bluto said:

 

I’m also of the belief that all these polls of the senate candidates running 3-5 points ahead of Harris are bunk. I think they will ultimately settle at the same % (with 1-2 points, but not 3-5+) and most of it is just pollsters doing Trump adjustments at the top 

[Huckleberry 32851]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’m also of the belief that all these polls of the senate candidates running 3-5 points ahead of Harris are bunk. I think they will ultimately settle at the same % (with 1-2 points, but not 3-5+) and most of it is just pollsters doing Trump adjustments at the top 

Except Cruz. Nobody likes him. 

[texasdago 7570]

12 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

White college educated voters are drifting away from the Republican coalition. 

Combine that with this... https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/22/politics/changing-electorate-trump-harris-analysis/index.html

[immamac 42839]

14 hours ago, sushihorn said:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=current_eav_voted_count_&demo_filters=[{"key"%3A"urbanicity"%2C"value"%3A"All"}]&state=TX&view_type=state
 

You may have to set up the comparison years but you can access state data by various demographic slices. I don’t fully understand or trust their modeled party data so I don’t use it but known demographics like age and race aren’t malleable in modeling. 

This is the only thing that matters and it's obvious what's happening. Using data that doesn't account for 10% of the people voting as being unregistered last time and that skewing WAY young. This is just Texas where the people who aren't registered or didn't vote are overwhelmingly democratic. 

I'm saying using 2020 data with what is in front of your eyes and saying reasonable people are energized by hate and racism to turn out like they haven't before 2020 is insane. 

[Js1 85303]

Voting was so easy in 2020 that I just don’t like comparing anything to it right now.

I think 2024 is going to set a new baseline - Republicans are voting early again, Dems are voting on E-Day again. We saw way less insane splits in 2022 - everyone doomed over the EV data but then, surprise, Dems turned out on Election Day too! And for a more Republican an electorate in 2022, we saw a lot of ticket splitting and/or crossover from R to D. Only way it was as close in the House as it was and it should not have been

Turnout is 65% of it, but persuasion is the rest. 

[BamaATL 16593]

11 minutes ago, immamac said:

This is the only thing that matters and it's obvious what's happening. Using data that doesn't account for 10% of the people voting as being unregistered last time and that skewing WAY young. This is just Texas where the people who aren't registered or didn't vote are overwhelmingly democratic. 

I'm saying using 2020 data with what is in front of your eyes and saying reasonable people are energized by hate and racism to turn out like they haven't before 2020 is insane. 

This is the story, and no one is seemingly tracking it at, not pollsters, not media, etc.  Here in Georgia, it's not 10% either, it's 17.6%.  Nothing is universal, but they aren't Trump voters by and large.  

[Bateshorn 9927]

So I walked out of my condo freaking out, and now I'm at work an hour later and maybe I don't need to freak out?  Can y'all explain it to me like I'm a golden retriever, since maffs are not my strong suit?

[Huckleberry 32851]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So I walked out of my condo freaking out, and now I'm at work an hour later and maybe I don't need to freak out?  Can y'all explain it to me like I'm a golden retriever, since maffs are not my strong suit?

Nobody knows shit about fuck. 

Pollsters are quite clearly modifying their findings so they don't undercount Trump voters. But are they going too far? Nobody knows. Meanwhile since Dobbs the polls have been seriously undercounting D votes but there is no industry move to account for that right now. And despite saying the independent voters are splitting evenly, the only poll we've seen that reported on people who have already voted showed that they're breaking hard for Harris so far in North Carolina (Marist poll 55-43 Harris in NC which said independents who haven't voted claim they're 53-45 for Trump, so you can interpret that different ways). 

Edited October 28 by Huckleberry

[aggie08 21495]

28 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

This is the story, and no one is seemingly tracking it at, not pollsters, not media, etc.  Here in Georgia, it's not 10% either, it's 17.6%.  Nothing is universal, but they aren't Trump voters by and large.  

We're all counting on you. I think Michigan and PA are virtual locks, but I think Wisconsin may be the "well, shit" state this year. And I have more faith in Georgia than North Carolina to fill in the gap.

Disclaimer: this is based on absolutely nothing, and I'm a well known idiot who knows shit about fuck.

[G650 14249]

5 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I'm a well known idiot who knows shit about fuck

Well duh, you are here posting with us

[SydneyCarton 48072]

55 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Voting was so easy in 2020 that I just don’t like comparing anything to it right now.

I think 2024 is going to set a new baseline - Republicans are voting early again, Dems are voting on E-Day again. We saw way less insane splits in 2022 - everyone doomed over the EV data but then, surprise, Dems turned out on Election Day too! And for a more Republican an electorate in 2022, we saw a lot of ticket splitting and/or crossover from R to D. Only way it was as close in the House as it was and it should not have been

Turnout is 65% of it, but persuasion is the rest. 

It blows my mind that Democratsare back to fucking voting on election day. WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING THAT? It increases the chances of disenfranchisement so fucking much. 

 

[immamac 42839]

16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It blows my mind that Democratsare back to fucking voting on election day. WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING THAT? It increases the chances of disenfranchisement so fucking much. 

 

I think in 2022 it's because no one gave a fuck and they forgot until election day. 

I don't think in presidential cycles this is the case, we will find out in a week or so. 

[sushihorn 3233]

5 hours ago, linux said:

Hillary lost in 2016 because there was a monumental demographic shift, and everybody loves an outsider, but Donny is an outsider no more he has a 4 year track record of disaster and we know it will be worse.  I don't see the monumental shift again that surprised everyone back then.

That’s not how the majority of Americans see it. They think they were better off under Trump than Biden by 20 point margins. This where Maslow’s Hierarchy comes in. Most of us easily meet our survival needs. We are not living paycheck to paycheck, for the most part. That allows us to pursue self-actualization like philosophical pursuits or social justice. But please realize that we are not representative of the country or even of college grads as a whole. We are TEXAS; that means we are not like other people or other colleges. Even within flagship public universities, we are right near the top. That means we are elite, with elitist perspectives that we have to struggle to move beyond when analyzing others. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

They think they were better off under Trump than Biden by 20 point margins

Citation please

[G650 14249]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

We are TEXAS; that means we are not like other people or other colleges.

What's this we shit homie.

[SydneyCarton 48072]

4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Citation please

Here's a summary of various polls, but they don't support his point:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/25/harris-vs-trump-on-the-economy-trumps-lead-shrinks-in-latest-polls/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

8 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That’s not how the majority of Americans see it. They think they were better off under Trump than Biden by 20 point margins. This where Maslow’s Hierarchy comes in. Most of us easily meet our survival needs. We are not living paycheck to paycheck, for the most part. That allows us to pursue self-actualization like philosophical pursuits or social justice. But please realize that we are not representative of the country or even of college grads as a whole. We are TEXAS; that means we are not like other people or other colleges. Even within flagship public universities, we are right near the top. That means we are elite, with elitist perspectives that we have to struggle to move beyond when analyzing others. 

 

7 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Citation please

There are many false memories of the Trump years because Trump & team have repeated lies again and again. Take the false memory that Hillary failed to concede. She conceded to Trump very very late on Election Day and then publicly conceded the next morning. And there some who say both Hillary (2016) and Trump (2020) failure to concede are equivalent. Hillary waited maybe 20 minutes for confirmation and Trump is now going on 4 years.

I admit that Trump says some things with so much confidence, I have to google them because I fairly sure he's lying but it sounds possible. to be clear, I know he's lying but I want to know the facts.

[G650 14249]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

I admit that Trump says some things with so much confidence, I have to google them because I fairly sure he's lying but it sounds possible. to be clear, I know he's lying but I want to know the facts.

Whatever psychological mechanism causes this in people fascinates me, because I'm the exact opposite.

[troph 24783]

56 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

So I walked out of my condo freaking out, and now I'm at work an hour later and maybe I don't need to freak out?  Can y'all explain it to me like I'm a golden retriever, since maffs are not my strong suit?

 

48 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Nobody knows shit about fuck. 

Pollsters are quite clearly modifying their findings so they don't undercount Trump voters. But are they going too far? Nobody knows. Meanwhile since Dobbs the polls have been seriously undercounting D votes but there is no industry move to account for that right now. And despite saying the independent voters are splitting evenly, the only poll we've seen that reported on people who have already voted showed that they're breaking hard for Harris so far in North Carolina (Marist poll 55-43 Harris in NC which said independents who haven't voted claim they're 53-45 for Trump, so you can interpret that different ways). 

harris in a landslide.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

16 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Most of us easily meet our survival needs.

Dobbs says otherwise to this. Women are dying because they can't get the medical care necessary to survive. Who gives a shit how much a gallon of gas costs if you are trying to find a way to escape the grave?

Still waiting for your citation of 20 points better. Sydney has Forbes round up and none of them are anywhere near 20. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

21 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That means we are elite, with elitist perspectives that we have to struggle to move beyond when analyzing others. 

Some of us are so elite that we have graduate degrees from directional Nebraska schools. 

[linux 1660]

11 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That’s not how the majority of Americans see it. They think they were better off under Trump than Biden by 20 point margins. This where Maslow’s Hierarchy comes in. Most of us easily meet our survival needs. We are not living paycheck to paycheck, for the most part. That allows us to pursue self-actualization like philosophical pursuits or social justice. But please realize that we are not representative of the country or even of college grads as a whole. We are TEXAS; that means we are not like other people or other colleges. Even within flagship public universities, we are right near the top. That means we are elite, with elitist perspectives that we have to struggle to move beyond when analyzing others. 

They said the same 2 years ago and Warnock got almost exactly the same vote percentage as in 2020. People just hate Trump, 52-53% of the voting base does like clockwork. That is literally the only thing saving us from fascism 2 to 3 points in people hating Trump.

Donald Trump got the "better off 4 years ago" Gallup win in 2020 he won it 55-33, and still got blown out, this is just a GOP question, I honestly would not put too much stock in it.

 

[sushihorn 3233]

The direct comparisons are infrequent but here is one: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-economy-gdp-wages-inflation/

You can infer from right track, wrong track polling since the economy is the voters’ biggest concern: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/direction-of-country

[Bateshorn 9927]

25 minutes ago, G650 said:

What's this we shit homie.

Yeah, man.  I might follow the Longhorns and be a native Austinite, but I didn't eat shit through 4 Maine winters to be lumped in with you elitist assholes. I get to be lumped in with a bunch of East Coast Elitist Assholes.

 

[sushihorn 3233]

6 minutes ago, linux said:

They said the same 2 years ago and Warnock got almost exactly the same vote percentage as in 2020. People just hate Trump, 52-53% of the voting base does like clockwork. That is literally the only thing saving us from fascism 2 to 3 points in people hating Trump.

Donald Trump got the "better off 4 years ago" Gallup win in 2020 he won it 55-33, and still got blown out, this is just a GOP question, I honestly would not put too much stock in it.

 

Again, 2022 was an R+3 electorate. A repeat of that is a Trump landslide in the EC this year. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

The direct comparisons are infrequent but here is one: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-biden-economy-gdp-wages-inflation/

You can infer from right track, wrong track polling since the economy is the voters’ biggest concern: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/state-of-the-union/direction-of-country

March?!

And get out of here with RCP. 

Perhaps you can address the ones cited above from Forbes.

[sushihorn 3233]

2 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

March?!

And get out of here with RCP. 

Perhaps you can address the ones cited above from Forbes.

Trump v Harris seems to only partially reflect the Trump economy v Biden economy. It doesn’t invalidate my point. It seems to indicate that Harris has had some success a defining herself as not-Biden. 

[linux 1660]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

Again, 2022 was an R+3 electorate. A repeat of that is a Trump landslide in the EC this year. 

I still don't see how it is relevant, according to your logic then Warnock would have lost, in the runoff he got %51.04 in Jan 2021 and %51.40 in Jan 2023.

Donald Trump won the Reagan slogan poll by 22 points in 2020, its fucking meaningless, just circlejerk material for the GOP.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

The hell it doesn't. Keep grasping at straws.

Biden's numbers are not hers. 

[Valmy77 13226]

19 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Again, 2022 was an R+3 electorate. A repeat of that is a Trump landslide in the EC this year. 

I don't know how seriously to take the House vote from 2022. First there was a massive ten point Republican swing in Texas in the House elections.

But the Democrats did not even lose a seat and none of their incumbents were even seriously threatened. This happened at least partially because the 31st, 26th, 25th, 19th, 11th, and 6th were all unopposed and they weren't in 2020. And a few were previously pretty competitive in 2020. The 6th, 25th, and 31st previously had Democratic challengers with more than 40% of the vote.

So we seem to have gotten a 10 point swing in the second most populous state in the Union in a way that led to not a single Democratic seat being lost. To me that is partially, or even mostly, because six seats that previously were contested, were not. 

So how can we just take the House vote in 2022 as some kind of evidence for anything? Trump isn't running unopposed in any states.

If we go across the whole country were unopposed seats well balanced in such a way that that number can be taken as evidence for this year?

Edited October 28 by Valmy77

[linux 1660]

My argument is very simple if Kamala keeps her anti Trump vote of 2020 and 2022 she wins in a landslide, 2022 was R+3 due to a combination of complicated factors like Desantis and Kemp cleaning house, but time and time again the votes between MAGA and not MAGA were identical, people are not budging Oz vs Fetterman, Warnock vs Walker, Kari Lake and well any hobo down the street. So you are telling me king MAGA is going to materialize a hidden demographic? no way, he maxed out, his only hope was moderating himself and he went full Hitler.

 

It is still and embarrassment and unacceptable that 48% are in his cult in the swing states, but 51%+ hates him and that is good enough.

[troph 24783]

16 minutes ago, linux said:

I still don't see how it is relevant, according to your logic then Warnock would have lost, in the runoff he got %51.04 in Jan 2021 and %51.40 in Jan 2023.

Donald Trump won the Reagan slogan poll by 22 points in 2020, its fucking meaningless, just circlejerk material for the GOP.

this is a critical point to why it's actually not a harris landslide. and I would like to see 1980 too. that's probably the most analogous given that inflation is the single biggest driver in people's feelings they are worse off (well until you get to democratic loyal voters like queer folk and people who think we should be doing more about climate change).

I think trump + dodds = harris landslide (by modern terms) but when you temper with impact of inflation you get a harris win as the inflation issue cuts in favor of trump even though it should not be a factor really for either of them (global pandemic and supply chain shocks out front shoulda toldya).

Edited October 28 by troph

[Firemans4Horn 18039]

Our house elections are severely gerrymandered and there are dozens of seats that don’t even have a challenger from the other party. 
 

Historically, first midterms are cold showers for presidents

 

Quote

Historically, first midterms don't bode well for presidents

First midterms are usually cold showers for the occupant of the White House.

 

The average seat loss in the House has been 28 since World War II. It has been 43 seats when the president's Gallup Poll approval rating was below 50%. And as for Democrats, in particular, the last four lost an average of 45 House seats in the first midterm after they were elected.

 

[linux 1660]

1 minute ago, troph said:

this is a critical point to why it's actually not a harris landslide. and I would like to see 1980 too. that's probably the most analogous given that inflation is the single biggest driver in people's feelings they are worse off (well until you get to democratic loyal voters like queer folk and people who think we should be doing more about climate change).

It depends on the definition of a landslide, people honestly think the 2020 election was close, it was not, it was a Biden blowout based on probability percentages, yes I know Reagan and Nixon got giga blowouts but that is ancient history, I would gladly take the exact same probability Biden got, going into to next week. And from all evidence she is looking to do better.

 

Trump won the Reagan poll by 22 points in 2020, forever chuck that poll in the garbage can.

[Firemans4Horn 18039]

6 minutes ago, linux said:

Trump won the Reagan poll by 22 points in 2020, forever chuck that poll in the garbage can.

You have to wonder who they sampled in that poll. It was 6 months into covid which was the worst year in almost all of our lives; we had large scale race protests and our president was recommending injecting bleach and tear gassing protestors. 

[Js1 85303]

When Dems turn out in Milwaukee, good things happen 

 

[bluto 4915]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

When Dems turn out in Milwaukee, good things happen 

 

This should be tempered a bit as Milwaukee had weekend voting while rural didn’t per the local nerd

[Pato del Muerto 52488]

2 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

You have to wonder who they sampled in that poll. It was 6 months into covid which was the worst year in almost all of our lives; we had large scale race protests and our president was recommending injecting bleach and tear gassing protestors. 

Trumpers managed to push that off on everyone else but him. And then chose to not hold him accountable for not being able to do anything about it despite being potus.  Fauci was all powerful. 
 

Polling is pretty much a joke to me now, at least political polling. You have non-representative sampling driven by super low response factors, you have bad actors giving false responses for one reason or another, and then you have polllsters trying to manipulate the data to account for all of that.  And at the end of all of that, they only claim the error that is measurable. 

[linux 1660]

Just now, Firemans4Horn said:

You have to wonder who they sampled in that poll. It was 6 months into covid which was the worst year in almost all of our lives; we had large scale race protests and our president was recommending injecting bleach and tear gassing protestors. 

People are nutty, best not to think about it and just auto ignore it in the future. We spend billions of dollars in polling and advertising to win the final vote result, not for slogan shit like Time of Possession.

 

 

[Js1 85303]

2 minutes ago, bluto said:

This should be tempered a bit as Milwaukee had weekend voting while rural didn’t per the local nerd

They still have to turn out, regardless of whether the rural vote on the weekend or not. 

[Pato del Muerto 52488]

3 minutes ago, bluto said:

This should be tempered a bit as Milwaukee had weekend voting while rural didn’t per the local nerd

Sounds to me like it is normalizing for the week, as the people with the option to vote over the weekend did so while those without that option made sure to vote during the week. 

[bluto 4915]

 

[Firemans4Horn 18039]

2 minutes ago, bluto said:

 

what are his thoughts in the following tweet?

[texasdago 7570]

5 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

what are his thoughts in the following tweet?

Yeah... some of us don't use Xitter

[linux 1660]

 

 

[henrygandorf 29189]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Again, 2022 was an R+3 electorate. A repeat of that is a Trump landslide in the EC this year. 

and the odds of a repeat are straight bluto - 0.0. feel free to correct me if you think otherwise. also i thought you were using 2020 as a baseline and looking at the huge shift in rurals? guess i'm not following this thread close enough.

bottom line - the higher the turnout, the better it is for dems. period, paragraph.

and so far, the turnout is high. biden won the popular vote by 7m votes. kamala will win by more because of turnout. the gop will never win the popular vote again.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

and the odds of a repeat are straight bluto - 0.0. feel free to correct me if you think otherwise. also i thought you were using 2020 as a baseline and looking at the huge shift in rurals? guess i'm not following this thread close enough.

bottom line - the higher the turnout, the better it is for dems. period, paragraph.

and so far, the turnout is high. biden won the popular vote by 7m votes. kamala will win by more because of turnout. the gop will never win the popular vote again.

Good summary. This is why you see Kamala and the Dems doing everything possible to get people to the polls. And Trump and the GOP are trying to tell Democrats that the race is over and in some cases (VA) still trying to purge the voter rolls.

[Firemans4Horn 18039]

13 minutes ago, linux said:

 

 

Keep that in mind as Election Night patterns unfold.

 

Am I to take from that, on election night the firewall will be lower than 2020 but less GOP voters will be voting on Election Day?