Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[linux 1370]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Good summary. This is why you see Kamala and the Dems doing everything possible to get people to the polls. And Trump and the GOP are trying to tell Democrats that the race is over and in some cases (VA) still trying to purge the voter rolls.

Honestly the Kremlinology is easier, Donald Trump is the worlds worst poker face, you can literally hear the the internal numbers just from his Truth Social posts.

When polls were all over the moon for him, after the Biden debate he was quiet as a mouse. Why? cause he got excited.

Now he is ranting and raging calling for Biden to come back, cause he is scared. You don't say that shit unless you are desperate.

[Huckleberry 32153]

7 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Keep that in mind as Election Night patterns unfold.

 

Am I to take from that, on election night the firewall will be lower than 2020 but less GOP voters will be voting on Election Day?

Yes but you're supposed to use fewer.

[Firemans4Horn 16872]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes but you're supposed to use fewer.

Führer

 

[Bateshorn 9490]

One thing that is clear, in all this Jon Ralston and other state copycats, is that because 2020 relied so much on mail in ballots, everyone got very into ballotology and reading tea leaves from updated totals.  But the thing is, party faithful rarely decide elections, it's independent voters that ultimately will choose. While there are some mildly encourage signs in the gender splits of EV, the truth is, until those get counted, no body really has any idea what is going on. Which brings us back to:

 

 

Edited Monday at 05:21 PM by Bateshorn

[bluto 4800]

24 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Keep that in mind as Election Night patterns unfold.

 

Am I to take from that, on election night the firewall will be lower than 2020 but less GOP voters will be voting on Election Day?

That’s my take away. Smithley had said 390k firewall in head to head and more like 500 rolling in indies. If more gop votes are burned early then seems like lower firewall needed. 
 

Nobody knows, but that’s why I propose we have presidential election ANNUALLY so we won’t have these potentials for swings like this, who’s with me!?! (Im keeeeding)

Edited Monday at 05:26 PM by bluto

[Js1 82429]

1 hour ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Keep that in mind as Election Night patterns unfold.

 

Am I to take from that, on election night the firewall will be lower than 2020 but less GOP voters will be voting on Election Day?

Yes, the GOP is cannibalizing some of their E-Day vote.  And overall requests were down from 2020, so more Dems will also vote on E-Day.

He mentioned that was also the pattern in 2022 as well. 

I mean, shit fuck, Biden needed about 1.2 million vote firewall in 2020 to offset E-Day.  Fetterman only needed about half that.  It's why it is so hard to draw parallels to 2020 - it will likely never be recreated. 

Edited Monday at 06:44 PM by Js1

[Jive Turkey 12204]

1 hour ago, linux said:

Honestly the Kremlinology is easier, Donald Trump is the worlds worst poker face, you can literally hear the the internal numbers just from his Truth Social posts.

When polls were all over the moon for him, after the Biden debate he was quiet as a mouse. Why? cause he got excited.

Now he is ranting and raging calling for Biden to come back, cause he is scared. You don't say that shit unless you are desperate.

Trump all but conceded last night that he’s gonna lose when he spilled the beans on his “little secret” plan with Mike Johnson to become POTUS.  He knows that is the only hope he has.  He ain’t winning the EC and he sure as fuck knows it.

Edited Monday at 06:47 PM by Jive Turkey

[Dahobbs 17097]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

That’s my take away. Smithley had said 390k firewall in head to head and more like 500 rolling in indies. If more gop votes are burned early then seems like lower firewall needed. 
 

Nobody knows, but that’s why I propose we have presidential election ANNUALLY so we won’t have these potentials for swings like this, who’s with me!?! (Im keeeeding)

I will fight you. 

[sushihorn 3215]

3 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

and the odds of a repeat are straight bluto - 0.0. feel free to correct me if you think otherwise. also i thought you were using 2020 as a baseline and looking at the huge shift in rurals? guess i'm not following this thread close enough.

bottom line - the higher the turnout, the better it is for dems. period, paragraph.

and so far, the turnout is high. biden won the popular vote by 7m votes. kamala will win by more because of turnout. the gop will never win the popular vote again.

My point is that a repeat of 2022 isn’t worth discussing because the result would be obvious, plus it’s a very low probability. The GOP biased EV pattern would have to not just hold up through Election Day, it would have to intensify to produce such a result. 

In most places the EV result is more R-friendly than 2020 but less friendly to them than 2022. If you don’t believe me, how about CNN?

The EV trend finally became so obvious that the media caught on. 

[bolverk 28892]

Below is a map of early voting in Texas so far, as reported by the SoS website. I'd originally planned to compare this with 2016 since 2020 was such an anomaly and assumed we're going back to our old ways, but the SoS only shows that data for the largest counties.

The yellows are counties with EV turnouts within the range (26.83% to 31.83%) of the statewide average (29.33%). From there, each color is a five-percentage-point range going up and down from the average. Greens and blues are running ahead of the statewide rate, while oranges, reds, and purples are lagging the state.

HUGE OUTLIERS:

• Fuckin' Hemphill (dark blue) 137% (!!!) of their registered voters have already placed their ballots.
• In Real, only 1.67% are reported to have voted early as of today.

WHO'S RUNNING AHEAD?

• Rural counties with tons of Anglo retirees are running far ahead of the statewide pace. These are concentrated mostly in the Hill Country west of the I-35 Corridor: Llano, Blanco, Burnet, Lampasas, Mills, etc.
• Suburban and exurban counties to the north and northwest of San Antonio: Comal, Kendall, Kerr, Gillespie, etc.
• Suburban and exurban counties to the north and northwest of Fort Worth: Denton, Wise, etc.
• "Old Three Hundred" counties in between Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.
• Golden Triangle and NE Texas.
• Booming suburban counties that have been trending Democratic are representing well: Williamson, Hays, Denton, Collin, Fort Bend.

WHO'S LAGGING BEHIND?

• Among the big urban: Dallas, Bexar, and El Paso.
• RGV/South Texas (Laredo, Corpus, McAllen/Edinburg, Brownsville/Harlingen).
• Mid-sized areas that make you go, huh?: Waco/Temple/Killeen, Midland/Odessa, Abilene/Sweetwater, Victoria/Port Lavaca.
• Poor, rural, and isolated Texas counties dominated by Hispanics, mostly out west and the South Plains/Panhandle. What the hell is going on in Mount Pleasant? Are those workers in the Pilgrim's plant just going to sit it out?

TRENDS?

• Among the rurals, older Anglos are coming out hard, and poor rural Hispanics are staying home.
• South Texas, in general, continues to disappoint.
• Dallas and San Antonio need to get their shit together. Dallas County would seem to be especially troubling for Allred.

Right now, I'd say these numbers don't point toward any happy surprises for Texas Dems, and we'll still be stuck with Lyin' Ted for the next 6 years.

[Valmy77 12527]

30% of Loving County has voted. That is 12 whole voters. 

[bolverk 28892]

1 minute ago, Valmy77 said:

30% of Loving County has voted. That is 12 whole voters. 

39, actually, but point taken. It's pretty fucked up, though, because the Census counted 64 residents in 2020, and they estimate only 43 lived there last year.

BUT there are 128 registered voters in the county. I believe Texas Monthly had an exposé about this weirdness a few years back. Go figure that people are still getting away with it.

[henrygandorf 28635]

33 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

My point is that a repeat of 2022 isn’t worth discussing because the result would be obvious, plus it’s a very low probability. The GOP biased EV pattern would have to not just hold up through Election Day, it would have to intensify to produce such a result. 

In most places the EV result is more R-friendly than 2020 but less friendly to them than 2022. If you don’t believe me, how about CNN?

The EV trend finally became so obvious that the media caught on. 

i have no doubt that r's are going back to voting early, which used to be the trend. as it's been stated, it will likely cannibalize their day-of voting, but that's not what's important to me. turnout is all that matters.

a few of your earlier posts implied that the trends are easily identifiable as pro-r and anti-d don't tell the real story, but certainly seemed to have been lapped up by those hoping to hear it. the rise of mail-in voting states + reversion of gop voting early makes it harder to predict, especially when compared to 2020, which was a one-off.

what is easier to predict is turnout. anyone who thinks higher turnout favors trump is kidding themselves.

[Valmy77 12527]

41 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

My point is that a repeat of 2022 isn’t worth discussing because the result would be obvious, plus it’s a very low probability. The GOP biased EV pattern would have to not just hold up through Election Day, it would have to intensify to produce such a result. 

In most places the EV result is more R-friendly than 2020 but less friendly to them than 2022. If you don’t believe me, how about CNN?

The EV trend finally became so obvious that the media caught on. 

I believe you. Hopefully we can still pull it out.

However the large female voting numbers are real and I am hoping that means something good. Got my straws firmly grasped.

But let us know if or when things start looking better.

[hayden_horn 11311]

lol is this thread where we unskew the polls? hahaha have we learned nothing.

cherry picking data points for self styled narratives is all we have left until the votes are counted. 

lol. unskew the polls

[Texas Jeff 1908]

1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

30% of Loving County has voted. That is 12 whole voters. 

Maybe folks are waiting for the lines to go down.

The county courthouse is in Mentone, along with a lot of the voters. The town is three streets with no traffic lights.  For some reason they built a bypass around it.

[shakahorn 1600]

7 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Yes but you're supposed to use fewer.

So what is a reasonable revised estimate for the PA firewall?  Shouldn't we (well someone better at this than me) be able to figure that out given the results thus far?

[sushihorn 3215]

4 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

But let us know if or when things start looking better.

Per Ralston, the NV Democrats won their first day of EV today. It was not by a lot but the rise in Clark County mail vote did the trick. Dems are still going to need to win Election Day to carry the state but it is a trend change. 

R+32k among those registered with a party. About 125k NPA. 

Edited Tuesday at 01:20 AM by sushihorn

[hpslugga 3984]

8 hours ago, linux said:

Honestly the Kremlinology is easier, Donald Trump is the worlds worst poker face, you can literally hear the the internal numbers just from his Truth Social posts.

When polls were all over the moon for him, after the Biden debate he was quiet as a mouse. Why? cause he got excited.

Now he is ranting and raging calling for Biden to come back, cause he is scared. You don't say that shit unless you are desperate.

Come to think of it, you don’t do any of the shit he and/or his surrogates have been doing unless you’re desperate

[sushihorn 3215]

In GA, black and urban turnout improved with Sunday votes added. Still well short of 2020 share. Black share is still 2.5 points below 2020 and urban share is 4.8 points lower.

This was the last Sunday of early voting, so Election Day is likely the only chance to radically change the composition of the electorate. I’m seeing a pattern here. 

[linux 1370]

26 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Per Ralston, the NV Democrats won their first day of EV today. It was not by a lot but the rise in Clark County mail vote did the trick. Dems are still going to need to win Election Day to carry the state but it is a trend change. 

R+32k among those registered with a party. About 125k NPA. 

I don't think anyone believes this election would have ended with early voting being insurmountable, it would have been lovely for my liver but we all knew it would lead to shorter lines in urban areas so that the vote is not depressed on ED, than and more resources for microtargeting.

[Valmy77 12527]

4 hours ago, hayden_horn said:

lol is this thread where we unskew the polls? hahaha have we learned nothing.

cherry picking data points for self styled narratives is all we have left until the votes are counted. 

lol. unskew the polls

Well we have votes now at least. We just don't know who for yet.

So what we seem to be doing is looking at who has voted so far and trying to read the tea leaves based on that.

[LonghornSean 3892]

Noted election analyst Elon has been reading this thread

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:27 AM by LonghornSean

[Pato del Muerto 51917]

I guess we will see if the extra week of early voting, which is baked in to his “on the same date” numbers, plus the R push for ED voting, makes for a different EV and ED profile in PA. 

[Valmy77 12527]

27 minutes ago, LonghornSean said:

Noted election analyst Elon has been reading this thread

 

 

Well since he is some kind of science genius I am sure he has considered all the relevant data.

[bolverk 28892]

8 hours ago, bolverk said:

Below is a map of early voting in Texas so far, as reported by the SoS website. I'd originally planned to compare this with 2016 since 2020 was such an anomaly and assumed we're going back to our old ways, but the SoS only shows that data for the largest counties.

The yellows are counties with EV turnouts within the range (26.83% to 31.83%) of the statewide average (29.33%). From there, each color is a five-percentage-point range going up and down from the average. Greens and blues are running ahead of the statewide rate, while oranges, reds, and purples are lagging the state.

HUGE OUTLIERS:

• Fuckin' Hemphill (dark blue) 137% (!!!) of their registered voters have already placed their ballots.
• In Real, only 1.67% are reported to have voted early as of today.

WHO'S RUNNING AHEAD?

• Rural counties with tons of Anglo retirees are running far ahead of the statewide pace. These are concentrated mostly in the Hill Country west of the I-35 Corridor: Llano, Blanco, Burnet, Lampasas, Mills, etc.
• Suburban and exurban counties to the north and northwest of San Antonio: Comal, Kendall, Kerr, Gillespie, etc.
• Suburban and exurban counties to the north and northwest of Fort Worth: Denton, Wise, etc.
• "Old Three Hundred" counties in between Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.
• Golden Triangle and NE Texas.
• Booming suburban counties that have been trending Democratic are representing well: Williamson, Hays, Denton, Collin, Fort Bend.

WHO'S LAGGING BEHIND?

• Among the big urban: Dallas, Bexar, and El Paso.
• RGV/South Texas (Laredo, Corpus, McAllen/Edinburg, Brownsville/Harlingen).
• Mid-sized areas that make you go, huh?: Waco/Temple/Killeen, Midland/Odessa, Abilene/Sweetwater, Victoria/Port Lavaca.
• Poor, rural, and isolated Texas counties dominated by Hispanics, mostly out west and the South Plains/Panhandle. What the hell is going on in Mount Pleasant? Are those workers in the Pilgrim's plant just going to sit it out?

TRENDS?

• Among the rurals, older Anglos are coming out hard, and poor rural Hispanics are staying home.
• South Texas, in general, continues to disappoint.
• Dallas and San Antonio need to get their shit together. Dallas County would seem to be especially troubling for Allred.

Right now, I'd say these numbers don't point toward any happy surprises for Texas Dems, and we'll still be stuck with Lyin' Ted for the next 6 years.

 

Apologies for quoting myself.

Since slapping this map together, I've had time to do some cipherin'. Looking at the turnout and trends within individual counties over the last few elections, I've got Kamala at 47.5% of the popular vote in Texas. That's about one percentage point above where Biden stood in the final totals from 2020.

Right now, the model estimates she's about 273,000 votes short. BUT, if I set only Dallas, Bexar, El Paso, and Hidalgo counties to vote at the same pace as the statewide turnout rate while changing nothing else, she immediately gains a 309,000 vote advantage. That puts her winning the state.

This is actually closer than I expected after initially putting together the initial map.

Edit:
By the way, my current model has her winning the following counties outright (sorted in descending order by her estimated share of the vote):

TRAVIS
DALLAS
EL PASO
PRESIDIO
BEXAR
HARRIS
FORT BEND
HAYS
ZAVALA
DIMMIT
WEBB
WILLIAMSON
HIDALGO
COLLIN
CAMERON
TARRANT
JIM HOGG
BROOKS
DENTON

I'll see about adding more columns of data tomorrow to provide more assumptions to make it more accurate (and filling in new EV totals), but this is heartening information.

Edited Tuesday at 04:47 AM by bolverk

[bluto 4800]

 

[gmr548 16257]

3 hours ago, LonghornSean said:

Noted election analyst Elon has been reading this thread

 

 

Elon admits Biden won. What a fucking cuck.

[gmr548 16257]

14 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

It blows my mind that Democratsare back to fucking voting on election day. WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU DOING THAT? It increases the chances of disenfranchisement so fucking much. 

 

This worries me quite a bit. Election Day is already ripe for violence from MAGA. If there's any sense of advantage heading into ED from the Republican side, that could be the push some of these Nazis need to go intimidate voters, or even bomb/shoot up a polling place.

To say nothing of the more benign factors like bad weather, flat tire, unexpected work demands, sick kid, whatever else that can keep you from getting to the polls as planned when you reduce it to a single day.

Edited Tuesday at 05:47 AM by gmr548

[linux 1370]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

 

Now this looks bad all in all barely treading the woman vote is not ideal..

[bluto 4800]

The lack of Clark co mail is very strange given how much he considers it should be a given. Like there’s some kinda processing issue 

[linux 1370]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

The lack of Clark co mail is very strange given how much he considers it should be a given. Like there’s some kinda processing issue 

I mean it could all be, they could just have a backlog, or lower staffing, Republicans still wiped the floor with mail in ballots in 2020 according to that graph. 

Here is a table on NV 2020 polling, it always always moves late to the GOP side , always,  Biden ended up winning 50.06 to 47.67.

Edited Tuesday at 09:03 AM by linux

[sushihorn 3215]

2 hours ago, linux said:

Now this looks bad all in all barely treading the woman vote is not ideal..

Thanks. So Ralston did a second update. That looks very different from what he released this afternoon. He’s seeing the crazy tilted demographics continuing, albeit at a slower pace but no trend reversal yet. 

Other states have seen some reversal. Younger voters have started to turn out, though they are still well under 2020 share. The same can be said of urban and non-white voters generally. 

[The Dog 42763]

5 hours ago, bluto said:

The lack of Clark co mail is very strange given how much he considers it should be a given. Like there’s some kinda processing issue 

I think people are anchoring to 2020 too much. That said, I've been thinking NV goes red regardless. 

[Huckleberry 32153]

[Js1 82429]

14 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think people are anchoring to 2020 too much. 

100% this.  Whether NV goes red or blue, we have to stop anchoring everything to 2020. 

And Clark is lagging by a lot - whether that is enthusiasm or mail processing or Dems just waiting until this week and Election Day, we don't know.  Ralston doesn't know.  Ralston is posting the data as it comes in at the end of the day, but the big picture will be next week, not today. 

Edited Tuesday at 01:59 PM by Js1

[SydneyCarton 47107]

15 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think people are anchoring to 2020 too much. That said, I've been thinking NV goes red regardless. 

I gave up on NV a week or two ago. And that's fine. 

[sushihorn 3215]

12 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I gave up on NV a week or two ago. And that's fine. 

There are very few scenarios where NV’s 6 EVs are decisive for either side. I’m watching it because it’s got a lot of data and the pattern this year is so wild. Between Covid and changing election practices, it’s hard to know how much of past modeling is valid now.
 

A lot of analysts are struggling to build new models that reflect mail balloting and EV in general. Their difficulty is compounded by two realignments of the electorate in less than a decade: first creation of the Obama coalition, then a massive realignment of white voter preferences along class lines with Trump. 

[aggie08 20217]

20 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I gave up on NV a week or two ago. And that's fine. 

Yep. Unless she's also winning Arizona, Nevada's electoral college points don't really count towards anything other than margin of victory. 

And it's impossible for me to envision a scenario where Kamala wins Arizona and Nevada, but loses Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina. Any one of which would get her to 270 if PA goes her way.

[sushihorn 3215]

Here are some charts that reflect the demographic biases within the 2024 early electorate:

[Nice Guy Eddie 13276]

If Harris loses NV the main pain is the strong likelihood of also losing the senate seat. There isn’t a realistic scenario of the Dems retaining the senate at all. And since the GOP taking the senate this year has been the expected result for several years now, the real impact is that ‘26 and ‘28 becomes that much more difficult for the Dems.

[Dahobbs 17097]

11 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Here are some charts that reflect the demographic biases within the 2024 early electorate:

What are your sources? 

[bluto 4800]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If Harris loses NV the main pain is the strong likelihood of also losing the senate seat. There isn’t a realistic scenario of the Dems retaining the senate at all. And since the GOP taking the senate this year has been the expected result for several years now, the real impact is that ‘26 and ‘28 becomes that much more difficult for the Dems.

Seems it’d have to be a monster gop margin to take the nv seat based on polling. Again polling grain of salt but they have been consistent dem +4 at least across board

 

[Js1 82429]

9 minutes ago, bluto said:

Seems it’d have to be a monster gop margin to take the nv seat based on polling. Again polling grain of salt but they have been consistent dem +4 at least across board

 

One thing we are going to find out - ridiculous and unprecedent ticket splitting or GOP non-response bias down the ballot in polling? 

[Bozo_Casanova 25530]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ridiculous and unprecedent ticket splitting or GOP non-response bias down the ballot in polling? 

I think there's going to be both, esp in Nevada. Probably in Ohio as well. The Trump/Sherrod Brown voter is absolutely a real thing. 

[Js1 82429]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think there's going to be both, esp in Nevada. Probably in Ohio as well. The Trump/Sherrod Brown voter is absolutely a real thing. 

Arizona too, based on polling.  

[G650 13067]

What would drive non response on the Senate side though?

[sushihorn 3215]

30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What are your sources? 

Target Smart

I tried to edit into the original post but I only had the option to report myself. 

[sushihorn 3215]

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think there's going to be both, esp in Nevada. Probably in Ohio as well. The Trump/Sherrod Brown voter is absolutely a real thing. 

I doubt there will be enough to save Brown. We are looking at an R+8-10 electorate there unless the remaining voters skew strongly the other way. Like a lot of places I’m seeing, the early vote is much older, whiter and more rural than 2020. Ohio specifically is even more rural than 2022, though not quite as white or old. 

When times are good, you see a lot of ticket splitters, since people can vote on personality. This year features an especially sharp ideological contrast at the top and the biggest issues are national ones: immigration and the economy. That tends to nationalize the election and reduce ticket splitting. 

[Js1 82429]

17 minutes ago, G650 said:

What would drive non response on the Senate side though?

Nate Cohn touched on this - it is people picking up the phone for a survey, saying "I am voting for Trump!" and hanging up the phone and not completing the survey.