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Js1

Js1 85288

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

We are looking at an R+8-10 electorate there unless the remaining voters skew strongly the other way

I am so glad I was clued into how wrong you often are, because L-O-FUCKING-L, NV is not going to be R+8-10 - 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31)

The hot takes a week out are pretty bad right now - everyone is operating with totally incomplete data and comparing it to a 2020 election that was wildly different from any other election ever held. 

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Bozo_Casanova

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Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I doubt there will be enough to save Brown. We are looking at an R+8-10 electorate there unless the remaining voters skew strongly the other way. Like a lot of places I’m seeing, the early vote is much older, whiter and more rural than 2020. Ohio specifically is even more rural than 2022, though not quite as white or old. 

Yeah, I think that's all true, although I don't think you can compare campaign driven early voting in 2024 to the exogenous weirdness of 2020. The GOP is really leaning into early voting and mail-in voting this time, which is smart, but those numbers come from somewhere. That said, whether Brown wins or loses, he's going to outperform Harris, both in % and absolute terms. And Moreno will not outperform Trump. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

When times are good, you see a lot of ticket splitters, since people can vote on personality. This year features an especially sharp ideological contrast at the top and the biggest issues are national ones: immigration and the economy. That tends to nationalize the election and reduce ticket splitting. 

This is true in general, but I'm not sure it's true this time, for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a uniquely polarizing personality, and I don't think I need to explain that one. There are people who vote for Trump and Democrats everywhere else, and there will be some number of Republicans who don't vote for Trump this time, and vote Harris for President and Moreno for Senate.  Second, though - his entire strategy to boost his share is to pull in a disproportional number of low propensity, low information voters. He will get some number ranging from a few to a lot, and most of them will vote Trump and walk out. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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The Dog

The Dog 44019

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I doubt there will be enough to save Brown. We are looking at an R+8-10 electorate there unless the remaining voters skew strongly the other way. Like a lot of places I’m seeing, the early vote is much older, whiter and more rural than 2020. Ohio specifically is even more rural than 2022, though not quite as white or old. 

When times are good, you see a lot of ticket splitters, since people can vote on personality. This year features an especially sharp ideological contrast at the top and the biggest issues are national ones: immigration and the economy. That tends to nationalize the election and reduce ticket splitting. 

except we're seeing pretty significant gaps between local and national races in the polls so far. Trump is outrunning the local candidates by 5-10 points in several places. Some of it is this:

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Cohn touched on this - it is people picking up the phone for a survey, saying "I am voting for Trump!" and hanging up the phone and not completing the survey. 

But it still doesn't make much sense. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I am so glad I was clued into how wrong you often are, because L-O-FUCKING-L, NV is not going to be R+8-10 - 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31)

The hot takes a week out are pretty bad right now - everyone is operating with totally incomplete data and comparing it to a 2020 election that was wildly different from any other election ever held. 

What are you talking about? Brown is the senator from Ohio.  I even mentioned the state in the text you quoted. 

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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32848

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I am so glad I was clued into how wrong you often are, because L-O-FUCKING-L, NV is not going to be R+8-10 - 2022 was R+3 (36-33-31)

The hot takes a week out are pretty bad right now - everyone is operating with totally incomplete data and comparing it to a 2020 election that was wildly different from any other election ever held. 

He's talking about Ohio I think

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Js1

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The Dog said:

But it still doesn't make much sense. 

it's counted a vote for Trump, but not as a vote for downballot. 

There will be ticket splitting, but unlikely at a level where Trump wins NV by a point or two and Rosen wins by 5-8 points.  

Same with Gallego being up 10+ and Trump up 1 or 2 in AZ. 

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Js1

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Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

No increase for dems in PA drop today. Delayed drop of D counties or R returns finally catching up?

Or we are hitting saturation point and the rest is all who turns out next week + straggling returns the rest of this week. 

Never gonna get 100% return rate on mail ballots - some won't return them at all, some will go vote in person instead on Tuesday. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, G650 said:

What would drive non response on the Senate side though?

The same thing that drives Trump's overperformance relative to downballot Republicans since 2016.

Voter: "TRUMPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!!"

Does not complete rest of ballot/poll.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, shakahorn said:

So what are the current firewall numbers?

Too many moving parts to calculate an answer with any reasonable degree of confidence. The trend to R early voting is clear: raw votes are up by 39k v 2020. The drop in D early votes is puzzling and dramatic: 493k. 
PA party vote

What makes the calculation so hard is the shift in party registration and the nature of that shift. PA had a D+666k registration advantage when Biden won. That dropped to D+435k last year. 
image.thumb.png.04acfa476cc760b4f0f9b4e569cae3f1.png

image.thumb.png.082a4271da0b87c826a3c73f666931f5.png
PA voter registration

 
The latest number I can find is D+300k.
How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024

Then we have to figure out how much of the registration change is confirming already observed behavior and how much has yet to be captured in past data. With a trend of this size and duration, there are surely some of each. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Too many moving parts to calculate an answer with any reasonable degree of confidence. The trend to R early voting is clear: raw votes are up by 39k v 2020. The drop in D early votes is puzzling and dramatic: 493k. 

Really, you find it puzzling why Democratic early voting patterns in the midst of a pandemic might be different today? Interesting, yes. Puzzling? Come on. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Too many moving parts to calculate an answer with any reasonable degree of confidence. The trend to R early voting is clear: raw votes are up by 39k v 2020. The drop in D early votes is puzzling and dramatic: 493k. 
PA party vote

What makes the calculation so hard is the shift in party registration and the nature of that shift. PA had a D+666k registration advantage when Biden won. That dropped to D+435k last year. 
image.thumb.png.04acfa476cc760b4f0f9b4e569cae3f1.png

image.thumb.png.082a4271da0b87c826a3c73f666931f5.png
PA voter registration

 
The latest number I can find is D+300k.
How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024

Then we have to figure out how much of the registration change is confirming already observed behavior and how much has yet to be captured in past data. With a trend of this size and duration, there are surely some of each. 

What were the early voting numbers in 2016, 2018, and 2022? I mean I get why there are slightly more Republican votes because in 2020 there was this big push to not do early voting or votes by mail for Republicans. Again I think there are issues with using 2020 as the baseline election to compare everything to. And the Democrats won in 2022 with all statewide elections plus in the state house with basically the same difference in party registrations.

Edited by Valmy77
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

How about puzzling when it drops by 40%. 3rd party and unaffiliated are down less than 30%. I don’t think anyone is pushing them to switch to EV. 

Again is it puzzling compared to non-2020 patterns? What happened with early voting two years ago when the Democrats won?

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Dahobbs

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3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

What were the early voting numbers in 2016, 2018, and 2022? I mean I get why there are slightly more Republican votes because in 2020 there was this big push to not do early voting or votes by mail for Republicans. Again I think there are issues with using 2020 as the baseline election to compare everything to. And the Democrats won in 2022 with all statewide elections plus in the state house with basically the same difference in party registrations.

in 2018 it was roughly even between Dem and Rep. 

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shakahorn

shakahorn 1645

Posted
Posted
On 10/28/2024 at 9:34 AM, bluto said:

 

 

23 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Too many moving parts to calculate an answer with any reasonable degree of confidence. The trend to R early voting is clear: raw votes are up by 39k v 2020. The drop in D early votes is puzzling and dramatic: 493k. 
PA party vote

What makes the calculation so hard is the shift in party registration and the nature of that shift. PA had a D+666k registration advantage when Biden won. That dropped to D+435k last year. 
image.thumb.png.04acfa476cc760b4f0f9b4e569cae3f1.png

image.thumb.png.082a4271da0b87c826a3c73f666931f5.png
PA voter registration

 
The latest number I can find is D+300k.
How Democrats' voter-registration advantage eroded in Pennsylvania, and what it means for 2024

Then we have to figure out how much of the registration change is confirming already observed behavior and how much has yet to be captured in past data. With a trend of this size and duration, there are surely some of each. 

 

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Well fuck.

I don't know what the hell is going on.

I agree with Valmy.  Even if we agree that both are using reliable sources of data, it seems like Joshua Smithley's calculations are so easy and Sushi's are so difficult.

I will say I appreciate Sushi's input, it sure seems like the rest of us have already started sucking each other's dicks.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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Posted

That’s why Ralston calls this a Unicorn election. We are in uncharted territory. Old models don’t work well when the electorate realigns and that happened twice since 2008.

The PA registration data illustrate why I said that gaining college whites and losing non-college was a bad trade for Democrats in the Midwest. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

That’s why Ralston calls this a Unicorn election. We are in uncharted territory. Old models don’t work well when the electorate realigns and that happened twice since 2008.

The PA registration data illustrate why I said that gaining college whites and losing non-college was a bad trade for Democrats in the Midwest. 

Yeah but I thought that happened in 2016-2020. I thought those votes were well lost long ago but you are making it sound like the non-college whites were voting Democrat right up until 2020. It is only NOW they are all shifting. What? Talk about a lagging indicator.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17527

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7 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

I only have 2020, 2022 and 2024. PA EV was even more D skewed in 2022 than in 2020. I didn’t expect that and others states look different. 
 

image.thumb.png.6ab1ae1e2dd4bcb798ee9acbd24c0909.png

It's pretty clear from that. The story here isn't lowered Democrat early vote, it is increased Rep early vote. Democrat early vote so far surpasses 2022 early vote by 20% with still a week to go. If that number gets to 30%, you're looking at a Democratic turnout that would match 2020 based upon the 2022 early vote and election date pattern. 

Putting it another way, in 2022 you see Dem early voting was 50.7% of 2020. Total votes in 2022 were lower than 2020, but only at 77.6% of 2020, not 50%.  Democratic votes clearly shifted to election day as did Republican votes (2022 ev was 47% of 2020 early vote).  The ratio looks off for 2024 because of the increase in GOP early voters, not a decrease in Dem early voters. 

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LurkingHorn

LurkingHorn 1066

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That’s why Ralston calls this a Unicorn election. We are in uncharted territory. Old models don’t work well when the electorate realigns and that happened twice since 2008.

The PA registration data illustrate why I said that gaining college whites and losing non-college was a bad trade for Democrats in the Midwest. 

We will not know this until next week. In the long term, though, non-college is shrinking very rapidly. 

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linux

linux 1660

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It's pretty clear from that. The story here isn't lowered Democrat early vote, it is increased Rep early vote. Democrat early vote so far surpasses 2022 early vote by 20% with still a week to go. If that number gets to 30%, you're looking at a Democratic turnout that would match 2020 based upon the 2022 early vote and election date pattern. 

Putting it another way, in 2022 you see Dem early voting was 50.7% of 2020. Total votes in 2022 were lower than 2020, but only at 77.6% of 2020, not 50%.  Democratic votes clearly shifted to election day as did Republican votes (2022 ev was 47% of 2020 early vote).  The ratio looks off for 2024 because of the increase in GOP early voters, not a decrease in Dem early voters. 

 exactly the key part to track is democratic early voting almost to the point of ignoring Republican early voting there will be no log jams on Rural and Suburban areas in election day the only benefit Republicans are accidents and micro targeting meanwhile Democrats need to worry about long lines

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Yeah but I thought that happened in 2016-2020. I thought those votes were well lost long ago but you are making it sound like the non-college whites were voting Democrat right up until 2020. It is only NOW they are all shifting. What? Talk about a lagging indicator.

I’m sorry if you got that impression. This is a long-standing trend. PA D registration advantage peak during the first Obama term at around D + 1.2 million. That advantage has been eroding steadily for about 15 years now. 

Edited by sushihorn
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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It's pretty clear from that. The story here isn't lowered Democrat early vote, it is increased Rep early vote. Democrat early vote so far surpasses 2022 early vote by 20% with still a week to go. If that number gets to 30%, you're looking at a Democratic turnout that would match 2020 based upon the 2022 early vote and election date pattern. 

Is that what you posted here @sushihorn? Are those totals for 2020 and 2022 versus current for 2024?

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14582

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That’s why Ralston calls this a Unicorn election. We are in uncharted territory. Old models don’t work well when the electorate realigns and that happened twice since 2008.

The PA registration data illustrate why I said that gaining college whites and losing non-college was a bad trade for Democrats in the Midwest. 

I was in Philly recently and read a good piece in the Philly paper about this.  It wasn't looking at polls but actual votes and found that Dems were indeed losing ground in poor and/or minority precincts.  The non college whites were fairly stable.  However, they were hemorrhaging support with the college educated whites in the Philly burbs.  I'd venture that a lot of them might still be registered Republicans. 

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Valmy77

Valmy77 13225

Posted
Posted
Just now, sushihorn said:

I’m sorry if you got that impression. This is a long-standing trend. PA D registration advantage peak during the first Obama term at around D + 1.2 million. That advantage has been eroding steadily for almost 20 years now. 

The advantage didn't get us much.

The Republicans have mostly controlled the State House, the Senate, and won many statewide elections in that time. Not to mention the 2016 Presidential election in Pennsylvania. 2022 was the first time that Senate seat was won by a Democrat since...1962. 

The PA D registration advantage didn't seem to actually mean advantages in votes. If it has been eroding away for 20 years than why were results in 2020 and 2022 better than the results in 2014 and 2016? That doesn't seem like something eroding away.

But I don't know all the dynamics of Pennsylvania politics or what it really means to be registered D.

 

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immamac

immamac 42838

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

The advantage didn't get us much.

The Republicans have mostly controlled the State House, the Senate, and won many statewide elections in that time. Not to mention the 2016 Presidential election in Pennsylvania. 2022 was the first time that Senate seat was won by a Democrat since...1962. 

The PA D registration advantage didn't seem to actually mean advantages in votes. If it has been eroding away for 20 years than why were results in 2020 and 2022 better than the results in 2014 and 2016? That doesn't seem like something eroding away.

But I don't know all the dynamics of Pennsylvania politics or what it really means to be registered D.

 

It doesn't make a shit. 

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Js1

Js1 85288

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

If it has been eroding away for 20 years than why were results in 2020 and 2022 better than the results in 2014 and 2016?

Persuasion matters just as much as turnout.  Registrations are lagging indicators - for how many years was there a Dem-registration advantage in states like WV and KY and they vote 25+ points red? 

A lot of the registration brouhaha is people finally switching their registration after not having voted for Democrats for 2 decades. 

Biden won 8% of Republicans and independents 52-44
Won women 55-44
Won college grads 57-42 (white college grads 54-45, non-white college grads 80-17)

In 2022:

10% of GOP voted Dem and 58-38 Dem advantage for independents
Women 57-41 for the Dems 
Dems won college grads 59-40 (white college grads 56-43, non-white college grads 74-25)

Edited by Js1
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The Dog

The Dog 44019

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, immamac said:

Holy fuck that's crazy. 

 

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well he doesn't say exit polls from where. Maybe it's BS, maybe it's San Francisco County. 

 

5 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


without context this means nothing 

I'm assuming these are national numbers of those who have already voted. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44019

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

How do you exit poll mail in votes? There are some states that are 100% vote by mail. 

You ask someone who has received a ballot whether or not they have mailed it in. The secretary of state offices have lists of registered voters and in those states with only mail you know who will receive a ballot.

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