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Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

StassneyHorn

By StassneyHorn
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17097

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

So...no then.

Ok that's bad. We'll see what happens.

It really isn't necessarily bad. As I said, the story here is the increase in EV turnout for GOP, not a decrease for Dems. The issue is whether that increase in GOP turnout will come at the expense of election day turnout (it will). 

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bolverk
bolverk

The short version of the story is I'd gotten a new boss in Austin and was miserable. My mom got terminal cancer, so it was an easy decision to quit and help her go through hospice. Once she passed, I

Js1
Js1

Is this how nerds sext?

Js1
Js1

When Dems turn out in Milwaukee, good things happen   

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2708

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

I’m sorry if you got that impression. This is a long-standing trend. PA D registration advantage peak during the first Obama term at around D + 1.2 million. That advantage has been eroding steadily for about 15 years now. 

Do you have a prediction based on your modeling?

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 74778

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I was in Philly recently and read a good piece in the Philly paper about this.  It wasn't looking at polls but actual votes and found that Dems were indeed losing ground in poor and/or minority precincts.  The non college whites were fairly stable.  However, they were hemorrhaging support with the college educated whites in the Philly burbs.  I'd venture that a lot of them might still be registered Republicans. 

 

that time line matches up with the rise of karen’s 

white burbs are easily influenced / swayed, they’re not the sharpest rubes out there - welfare queens, inner city blacks love crime sprees in the burbs, illegals raping karens, illegals getting free houses, welfare, vacations, you name it but it’s all free and paid for with tax dollars from the burbs, your schools suck because of all the black kids and illegals !!!

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Js1

Js1 82431

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, The Dog said:

You ask someone who has received a ballot whether or not they have mailed it in. The secretary of state offices have lists of registered voters and in those states with only mail you know who will receive a ballot.

Yeah, the networks and pollsters figured out how to do this in 2020.  Or they attempted to - they polled a healthy mix of mail/in-person early/in-person election day for exit polls.  And likely for this stuff as well.

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gmr548

gmr548 16258

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, The Dog said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Valmy77 said:

That is some hardcore hopium right there.

Texas voting blue is so unlikely, I won't believe it until I see it. Even if the polls says +10 Allred.

 

1 hour ago, immamac said:

Holy fuck that's crazy. 

Those are almost certainly national numbers because the idea of that many major pollsters conducting exit polls on Texas specifically is silly.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 13918

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

that time line matches up with the rise of karen’s 

white burbs are easily influenced / swayed, they’re not the sharpest rubes out there - welfare queens, inner city blacks love crime sprees in the burbs, illegals raping karens, illegals getting free houses, welfare, vacations, you name it but it’s all free and paid for with tax dollars from the burbs, your schools suck because of all the black kids and illegals !!!

I meant to say the Republicans were the ones losing support in the burbs.  Sorry about that.  Those Main Line burbs went heavy Dem the last few times.

My mistake.  Sorry about that.

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Js1

Js1 82431

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I meant to say the Republicans were the ones losing support in the burbs.  Sorry about that.  Those Main Line burbs went heavy Dem the last few times.

My mistake.  Sorry about that.

I knew what you meant.  Because the GOP has been hemorrhaging support in the burbs since 2016.  We are seeing it continue in the district-level polling. 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 25531

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, sushihorn said:

 

What makes the calculation so hard is the shift in party registration and the nature of that shift. PA had a D+666k registration advantage when Biden won. That dropped to D+435k last year. 

 

I'd ignore that - registration is more of a lagging than leading indicator of anything. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3215

Posted
Posted

Texas EV update - all data 8 days from Election Day.

image.thumb.png.707441f9a69b45ae63fcf970508fda73.png
Olds still dominating but to a lesser degree. Numbers now are between 2020 and 2022.

image.thumb.png.f07865bd62b641d1152eb78c9a95a3a6.png

Urban votes have passed rural but rural is still disproportionate to both 2020 and 2022  


image.thumb.png.5a694d225e22b2d782302cd02274aa45.png
All non-white groups are up v 2022 and down v 2020.

Total EV now 5.25 million. If turnout looks like 2020, about 45% of the total votes have been cast. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17097

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

EV in Texas stands at 6,028,459 from the secretary of state’s website per right fucking now. I’m gonna start handing out some 24 hour vacations soon.

Oh, so you're saying maybe TargetEarly doesn't actually have accurate real time data? I'm shocked. Just shocked. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3215

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Do you have a prediction based on your modeling?

See above: Too many moving parts.
 

Kamala is down slightly in swing state polling. She needs a plus factor v the polling models but the early vote is giving her the opposite. So a big shift is required for her to win. If the severe cannibalization thesis is correct, the Election Day turnout should favor her. If not, independents or some other significant demographic has to break hard in her direction. Again, uncharted territory. 

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Js1

Js1 82431

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Registrations are lagging indicators - for how many years was there a Dem-registration advantage in states like WV and KY and they vote 25+ points red? 

 

26 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'd ignore that - registration is more of a lagging than leading indicator of anything. 

we see each other GIF

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UpperWestside

UpperWestside 5990

Posted
Posted

Went and cast my vote on the first day of early voting here because I am heading out to Hawaii for 10 days in the morning to find an apartment. Was quick and the folks there made it easy as always. I would not want to have to be a day of the election voter here or anywhere else. Those lines are going to be really long.

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flatdawgs

flatdawgs 1194

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, softlynow said:

"Party registration is modeled by TargetSmart from multiple commercial sources."

lolololol WA not only has no party registration, but an open "jungle" primary, yet somehow some very specific numbers pop up there. They'd be more believable if they just left that blank for states like WA (they do for "VBM/in person" here where there is no in person voting, so it can be done).

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immamac

immamac 41373

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

In Texas you can view voter lists to compare past participation in our open primaries and if you participated in the general. Twitter user Longhorn Derek tries to get ahold of it but I think he’s open about the short coming of it all.

But what about the shitton of people who don't care to primary their democratic nominees and are trying to primary Ted Cruz etc. I know a shitload of those who aren't gonna vote R. 

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3215

Posted
Posted

It looks like Election Day turnout is going to decide this thing since a lot of states are close in the polls, within the MOE but the EV is disproportionately in demographics friendly to the GOP. I think cannibalization is the big question now and I’m trying to figure out the best way to derive a reasonable proxy for that.

I think the easiest way to derive a rough measure would be to look at statewide vote frequency and see how the large urban D counties compare to the statewide average. The R vote is dispersed through many more counties but it might be helpful to sample of few of the larger exurban counties as a reality check. I welcome suggestions to improve the design and best data sources. I can do this on Target Smart because they show county level data but if there is a more timely source with this data I’d prefer that. 

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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5820

Posted
Posted

Teach a class at a solid Christian school, to put it mildly. I always say, if you want the youth to take a different stance, give them a solid dose of whatever you’re preaching. They asked if I voted. I said yes but we don’t talk politics in class. They then commenced to talking to each other about how they’re all cancelling out their parents votes back in Florida, Texas and wherever they’re from. Can’t help but smile. Hopefully things don’t get worse for them. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9491

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, sushihorn said:

See above: Too many moving parts.
 

Kamala is down slightly in swing state polling. She needs a plus factor v the polling models but the early vote is giving her the opposite. So a big shift is required for her to win. If the severe cannibalization thesis is correct, the Election Day turnout should favor her. If not, independents or some other significant demographic has to break hard in her direction. Again, uncharted territory. 

 

IMG_5239.webp

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9491

Posted
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32 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I think I can now add this to my list of Longhorn internet phrase creations

f the haters, Greg Davis is Not Our Standard, caterwauling vagina, and nobody knows shit about fuck as it specifically pertains to this election

I believe in credit where credit is due. 

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berlinerbaer

berlinerbaer 663

Posted
Posted

SIAP. Apparently a CNN poll from today has Harris +1 in AZ with 55% of poll respondents saying they already voted, with Harris leading among the early voters 53 - 44, even though most of them were Republican. If accurate, then this thing's all over but the shenanigans.

They polled Nevada also and had Trump +1 overall and up 52 - 46 in the already voted category, which was only 42% of respondents. That corroborates the current GOP lead we see there but suggests a lot more of the vote is outstanding.

I couldn't find the early voter respondent data but the numbers are in the CNN article.

https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25257085/cnn-polls-harris-and-trump-locked-in-close-races-in-arizona-and-nevada-as-pool-of-persuadable-voters-shrinks.pdf

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/29/politics/cnn-polls-arizona-nevada-trump-harris/index.html

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16258

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, flatdawgs said:

lolololol WA not only has no party registration, but an open "jungle" primary, yet somehow some very specific numbers pop up there. They'd be more believable if they just left that blank for states like WA (they do for "VBM/in person" here where there is no in person voting, so it can be done).

The WA primary results are one of the primary copium data points. Essentially identical partisan splits to 2020.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 28636

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Interesting and good news on AZ! NV makes sense - the rurals are basically outvoting Clark Dems right now. The Culinary Union better be getting them out or those ballots back ASAP. Or planning a big E-Day push. 

sounds like kamala needs an anomaly miracle on election day to keep this close. 

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