Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[Js1 85651]

5 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

sounds like kamala needs an anomaly miracle on election day to keep this close. 

Not really 

[Huckleberry 33163]

Drop from Monday but that is fairly standard. Every election since 2016 has seen it on the second Tuesday. My prediction is that the idiots who wait until this Friday will regret it even more than usual because Thursday will be light due to Halloween. 

Edited October 30 by Huckleberry

[Js1 85651]

Harris has extended voting hours tomorrow for Halloween. 9pm 

[bolverk 29767]

Good update overnight for the Austin area, with Travis and Wilco now running ahead of the statewide pace. Same goes for Montgomery County (boo!). Collin/Denton continue to impress, running well ahead.

Bexar and McLennan finally caught up to the state. Harris County has now fallen behind for the first time since I've been updating the map.

The same geographic areas continue to lag: South Texas, Far West, and Panhandle/Plains between Amarillo and Lubbock. I remain fascinated by the abysmal turnout in Titus County (Mt. Pleasant).

Mid-sized cities away from the border that rate poorly:

• Corpus Christi
• Amarillo proper (not the suburbs to its south)
• Temple/Killeen/Copperas Cove
• Wichita Falls
• Abilene
• Odessa (Midland's doing okay)
• Victoria

El Paso, Valley: Get your shit together.

Edited October 30 by bolverk

[Huckleberry 33163]

Yeah Titus County sticks out like crazy. They only have one early voting location which I'm sure doesn't help but that's probably not that unusual.

[bolverk 29767]

1 minute ago, Huckleberry said:

Yeah Titus County sticks out like crazy. They only have one early voting location which I'm sure doesn't help but that's probably not that unusual.

I moved to my hometown in West Texas, which is about the same size as the Mt. Pleasant area. We only have one countywide EV location, so I don't think it's that.

I do know there's a really big Pilgrim's Pride chicken plant in Mt. Pleasant, so they have an unusually large Hispanic population for Northeast Texas. I figure they're just really poorly integrated, isolated, and not engaged with the wider community, which likely accounts for the low turnout.

[SydneyCarton 48240]

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I moved to my hometown in West Texas, which is about the same size as the Mt. Pleasant area. We only have one countywide EV location, so I don't think it's that.

I do know there's a really big Pilgrim's Pride chicken plant in Mt. Pleasant, so they have an unusually large Hispanic population for Northeast Texas. I figure they're just really poorly integrated, isolated, and not engaged with the wider community, which likely accounts for the low turnout.

But Why.gif?

[Valmy77 13303]

El Paso is just never going to vote. We all whine about it every election.

I think there could be an election where one candidate promised to nuke El Paso and another one promising to pay everyone in El Paso one million dollars and they still wouldn't vote.

[bolverk 29767]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

But Why.gif?

The short version of the story is I'd gotten a new boss in Austin and was miserable. My mom got terminal cancer, so it was an easy decision to quit and help her go through hospice. Once she passed, I spent some time prepping her house to sell (my dad had already died of Covid), but I got comfortable out here (it's the house I grew up in) and decided to just sell my Austin house, live here basically bill-free (no mortgage, solar panels, well water) and make a go of it.

[Js1 85651]

8 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

El Paso is just never going to vote. We all whine about it every election.

I think there could be an election where one candidate promised to nuke El Paso and another one promising to pay everyone in El Paso one million dollars and they still wouldn't vote.

Yep.  If we can get El Paso County to 50% voter turnout, that's a good year for them. 

Since 1996, their presidential turnout voter turnout % has been: 45.36, 41.16, 45.6, 47.68, 44.58, 49.15, 52.01

Their best ever midterm turnout was, unsurprisingly, 2018, with Beto on the ballot - 46%. Did not translate in 2022 with Beto running for governor - 32.66%

[immamac 43373]

Any theories as to why? 

[Js1 85651]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

Any theories as to why? 

Tribune had a good article about this back during the primaries (https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/29/texas-voting-el-paso-low-turnout/)

Tldr:

• Lack of knowledge on how to register to vote (thanks TDP! And Beto - you should have been doing this instead of your vanity run for President and governor)
• Lack of excitement about local candidates and general apathy about federal politics
• On the local candidates, they don't seem to connect with voters about the issues they care about 
• Don't feel connected to the rest of the state, so they don't give a shit 
• For being a border town, don't care about immigration, in the way it is used as an issue, because the debate never talks about how ELP is a commerce hub and contributes much to the state's economy through trade and migration of workers

Edited October 30 by Js1

[Js1 85651]

49 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Drop from Monday but that is fairly standard. Every election since 2016 has seen it on the second Tuesday. My prediction is that the idiots who wait until this Friday will regret it even more than usual because Thursday will be light due to Halloween. 

 

Harris had almost 97k on Monday and 92k yesterday.  Really looking for them to hit a million early votes by Friday. 

[bolverk 29767]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tribune had a good article about this back during the primaries (https://www.texastribune.org/2024/03/29/texas-voting-el-paso-low-turnout/)

Tldr:

• Lack of knowledge on how to register to vote (thanks TDP! And Beto - you should have been doing this instead of your vanity run for President and governor)
• Lack of excitement about local candidates and general apathy about federal politics
• On the local candidates, they don't seem to connect with voters about the issues they care about 
• Don't feel connected to the rest of the state, so they don't give a shit 
• For being a border town, don't care about immigration, in the way it is used as an issue, because the debate never talks about how ELP is a commerce hub and contributes much to the state's economy through trade and migration of workers

Yeah, how do you convince a group of people that civic participation matters when they don't see any benefits? Of course, there are benefits, but a lot of them just don't see how any of it matters. And, yes, that's on the Texas Democratic Party. 

[immamac 43373]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, how do you convince a group of people that civic participation matters when they don't see any benefits? Of course, there are benefits, but a lot of them just don't see how any of it matters. And, yes, that's on the Texas Democratic Party. 

Its crazy because if they turned out Texas would have been blue for a while now. 

[Js1 85651]

8 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, how do you convince a group of people that civic participation matters when they don't see any benefits? Of course, there are benefits, but a lot of them just don't see how any of it matters. And, yes, that's on the Texas Democratic Party. 

I totally get it though.  They're almost 600 miles from Austin and the Legislature votes more in line with their rural neighbors in West Texas, so they don't feel the states gives a flying fuck about them.  Because they don't, except for the revenue their cross-border economic activity brings in.

Shit, they aren't even in the same timezone as the rest of the state.  You may as well just cede El Paso to New Mexico at this point.  They're closer to Santa Fe than Austin. 

[Bateshorn 9942]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I totally get it though.  They're almost 600 miles from Austin and the Legislature votes more in line with their rural neighbors in West Texas, so they don't feel the states gives a flying fuck about them.  Because they don't, except for the revenue their cross-border economic activity brings in.

Shit, they aren't even in the same timezone as the rest of the state.  You may as well just cede El Paso to New Mexico at this point.  They're closer to Santa Fe than Austin. 

When I went to Big Bend, I flew out of El Paso at the end of the trip.  I really, really liked it, but it felt like an entirely different place than the Texas I know in the Dallas, Austin, SAT, Houston box.  Doesn't surprise me at all that most people in El Paso give zero fucks about contemporary events in the rest of the state. 

[bolverk 29767]

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

Its crazy because if they turned out Texas would have been blue for a while now. 

Yep.

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I totally get it though.  They're almost 600 miles from Austin and the Legislature votes more in line with their rural neighbors in West Texas, so they don't feel the states gives a flying fuck about them.  Because they don't, except for the revenue their cross-border economic activity brings in.

Shit, they aren't even in the same timezone as the rest of the state.  You may as well just cede El Paso to New Mexico at this point.  They're closer to Santa Fe than Austin. 

Yep.

I know we're talking about El Paso, but take a good look at the map: it's mostly a Hispanic/Latino problem. Those counties between Lubbock and Amarillo are mostly Hispanic. South Texas below the Nueces River. West of the Pecos. All have Hispanic majority populations. That's the common denominator.

I realize engagement is a two-way street, but why the fuck has the Texas Democratic Party allowed it to get to this point? Texas would've flipped by now otherwise.

[G650 14284]

I will always have a soft spot in my heart for El Paso. Back in 2000 when I moved to California, I drove via Austin for a night on the town. Leaving Austin the next morning, I literally thought I was on another planet for the better part of a day. Coming back into civilization in El Paso is up there for the most blessed relief I've ever experienced.

[troph 24916]

47 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The short version of the story is I'd gotten a new boss in Austin and was miserable. My mom got terminal cancer, so it was an easy decision to quit and help her go through hospice. Once she passed, I spent some time prepping her house to sell (my dad had already died of Covid), but I got comfortable out here (it's the house I grew up in) and decided to just sell my Austin house, live here basically bill-free (no mortgage, solar panels, well water) and make a go of it.

that's bad ass (I mean not your parents but just going for it). hope it's going well.

[bolverk 29767]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will always have a soft spot in my heart for El Paso. Back in 2000 when I moved to California, I drove via Austin for a night on the town. Leaving Austin the next morning, I literally thought I was on another planet for the better part of a day. Coming back into civilization in El Paso is up there for the most blessed relief I've ever experienced.

That isolation and lack of civilization is part of the appeal of West Texas for many folks.

[Bateshorn 9942]

Just now, bolverk said:

That isolation and lack of civilization is part of the appeal of West Texas for many folks.

The Texas High Plains is easily one of the most beautiful and compelling places I've ever been.  Despite being an Austin boy to the core my entire life, I get why people are so drawn to West Texas. 

[mycox 582]

I always vote October 31 around 6:30. It the best date and time to vote when everyone is out doing halloween stuff.

[G650 14284]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

That isolation and lack of civilization is part of the appeal of West Texas for many folks.

 

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

The Texas High Plains is easily one of the most beautiful and compelling places I've ever been.  Despite being an Austin boy to the core my entire life, I get why people are so drawn to West Texas. 

I hear Elon is taking people to Mars pretty soon.

[Aqua Buddha 14636]

Georgia's early vote and mail in total is already at 75% of the 2020 total.  Granted, the state has grown more so there's that.  Both parties are definitely cannibalizing election day vote.

Georgia almost 57% women, BTW.  Harris ain't losing GA.

[Bateshorn 9942]

Just now, G650 said:

 

I hear Elon is taking people to Mars pretty soon.

Maybe he can take his asshat friends with him and we can have Centex back. 

Damn, I miss Marathon:

 

[GreenspointTexas 9708]

El Paso is pretty tight. Its isolated, but it is cheap, no traffic, has fantastic outdoor activities, low crime rate, solid food (texmex and mex mex) and also has some of the best weather in the lower 48. 
 

You can buy a badass house with a pool and a view overlooking the city for just over a million. Cant do that anywhere else

[hookem2010 2632]

28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I totally get it though.  They're almost 600 miles from Austin and the Legislature votes more in line with their rural neighbors in West Texas, so they don't feel the states gives a flying fuck about them.  Because they don't, except for the revenue their cross-border economic activity brings in.

Shit, they aren't even in the same timezone as the rest of the state.  You may as well just cede El Paso to New Mexico at this point.  They're closer to Santa Fe than Austin. 

Can we do that? Selfishly, I'd love to give away Montgomery County, Katy and most of suburban/exurban DFW, but this may be easier and make more sense electorally.

[LTbear 4171]

1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

El Paso... has some of the best weather in the lower 48.

[GreenspointTexas 9708]

3 minutes ago, LTbear said:

More days of sunshine than any other american city iirc

[LTbear 4171]

1 minute ago, GreenspointTexas said:

More days of sunshine than any other american city iirc

And how many of them get above 90 degrees?

Edited October 30 by LTbear

[Fudge Nuggets 19239]

3 minutes ago, LTbear said:

And how many of them get above 80 degrees?

All of them?

[C-Man 27293]

On 10/21/2024 at 4:50 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

Of course, but he won it because he got to the dumb thing first. It’s like when Hillary Clinton opposed the TTP. She conceded a point she should not have conceded and made herself look weak in the process. 

Not to mention his "no tax on tips" plan could very be abused by wealthy financial types who could re-categorize all their compensation as tips basically. Hers is more grounded in reality and geared to help people who survive day-to-day on tips but by and large, Americans are fucking stupider than shit.

[Valmy77 13303]

20 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Georgia's early vote and mail in total is already at 75% of the 2020 total.  Granted, the state has grown more so there's that.  Both parties are definitely cannibalizing election day vote.

Georgia almost 57% women, BTW.  Harris ain't losing GA.

This is my main reason for optimism at this point. Large lead in the woman turnout. 

[Redneck Mutha 8022]

31 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

I hear Elon is taking people to Mars pretty soon.

[bolverk 29767]

By the way, the spreadsheet I'm using for the maps includes how each county voted in the last three presidential elections. I've calculated a guestimate (based on a calculated trends forecast) for Harris's share of the vote in each county in this cycle. Collin and Denton flip to blue with this scenario, but several smaller South Texas counties flip to red.

If that's accurate, she's running about one percentage point ahead of Biden's final statewide tally (47.5% of the vote versus Biden's 46.5%), at least in the early voting. The model has her at a 335,000 vote deficit right now.

It'll be interesting to see the effect of the Covid migration wave on the North Texas suburban counties and whether Collin/Denton indeed make the flip.

[Js1 85651]

I’d be ecstatic if she hit 47.5% statewide. Like god damn 

[NAVY 6762]

36 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Not to mention his "no tax on tips" plan could very be abused by wealthy financial types who could re-categorize all their compensation as tips basically. Hers is more grounded in reality and geared to help people who survive day-to-day on tips but by and large, Americans are fucking stupider than shit.

Supreme Court judges also love this. No tax on their gratuities 

[Pescado_Rojo 19452]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’d be ecstatic if she hit 47.5% statewide. Like god damn 

Would that mean Ted is in trouble (Please say yes)

[Valmy77 13303]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’d be ecstatic if she hit 47.5% statewide. Like god damn 

Yeah anything over 47% would be a huge win.

I mean not literally, but it would be a big win for those of us hoping to one day see Texas turn.

[Js1 85651]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Would that mean Ted is in trouble (Please say yes)

Yes

[Valmy77 13303]

1 minute ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Would that mean Ted is in trouble (Please say yes)

Maybe. We had a silly number of people who voted for Beto and Abbott in 2018. 

[Js1 85651]

2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Maybe. We had a silly number of people who voted for Beto and Abbott in 2018. 

That’s because Lupe was bad. Awful. Dreadful. She didn’t even try 

[Bozo_Casanova 26613]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, how do you convince a group of people that civic participation matters when they don't see any benefits? Of course, there are benefits, but a lot of them just don't see how any of it matters. And, yes, that's on the Texas Democratic Party. 

For them? Debateable. It's tough to see how Texas flipping blue would have much benefit for the daily lives of the non-voting cohort in El Paso or the cities in general. Agree about who's to blame for that perception, however. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19452]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes

[tx ind 7013]

30 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s because Lupe was bad. Awful. Dreadful. She didn’t even try 

Y'all can shit on Lupe as much as you want but I still love the beef fajitas.

[bolverk 29767]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’d be ecstatic if she hit 47.5% statewide. Like god damn 

I'm not making a big deal of it yet because it's a calculation based on the assumption that counties that have been trending toward Dems continue to get slightly bluer and vice versa for the GQP. So, we'll just have to see how that pans out. It makes sense mathematically, but people's voting decisions aren't always that neat and tidy.

For example, the math has Harris going up to:

• Collin       53.1% 
• Tarrant     52.1%
• Denton    50.3%

And on the downside, falling to:

• Webb (Laredo)                              54.9%
• Hidaldgo (McAllen)                       53.2%
• Cameron (Brownsville/Harlingen) 52.8%

It's obviously not going to be precisely that, but it's picking up the larger voting trends from the past three elections and weighting for population growth since the last election. I'm just doing this to stay occupied and sane by putting nervous energy toward something that my brain thinks is productive. 

[sushihorn 3233]

Real Life butt dialed last night. The major anomalies in voter frequency were Harris and Bexar counties. Infrequent voters are in the 12% range there, much lower than statewide. Travis, Tarrant, Montgomery and Galveston are all above average in turning out infrequent voters, the last 2 to a somewhat greater degree. 

[Burt 4093]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Harris has extended voting hours tomorrow for Halloween. 9pm 

See, it IS fixed!  She should have no say in when voting ends!!! [/trumptard]

[Huckleberry 33163]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I'm not making a big deal of it yet because it's a calculation based on the assumption that counties that have been trending toward Dems continue to get slightly bluer and vice versa for the GQP. So, we'll just have to see how that pans out. It makes sense mathematically, but people's voting decisions aren't always that neat and tidy.

For example, the math has Harris going up to:

• Collin       53.1% 
• Tarrant     52.1%
• Denton    50.3%

And on the downside, falling to:

• Webb (Laredo)                              54.9%
• Hidaldgo (McAllen)                       53.2%
• Cameron (Brownsville/Harlingen) 52.8%

It's obviously not going to be precisely that, but it's picking up the larger voting trends from the past three elections and weighting for population growth since the last election. I'm just doing this to stay occupied and sane by putting nervous energy toward something that my brain thinks is productive. 

I was actually going to look into doing something like this so I appreciate what you're doing. What did you use as a factor for the trend continuation? For example, if a county went 40% Clinton then 42% Biden are you saying 44% this year or are you continuing but dampening the trend? I would want to look at historical info but without enough time to devote to it, my first instinct would be to cut the last 4 year difference in half so call the estimate for the above hypothetical county 45% Harris this year instead of 46%.