Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[Huckleberry 32738]

Top 9 counties have the same number of registered voters as the rest of the state. I use top 15 only because that's how far down the historical early voting results pages go on the Texas elections site. 

[texastough 1129]

Let me see if I understand Huck's chart.

Ignoring 2020, at this point we have record EV turnout both in raw numbers and as a % of registered voters (looks like we are around 7% ahead of 2016?). So thats good.

But, historically red counties have been leading the EV charge. So thats bad. But, they are starting to plateau and blue counties are catching up. So thats good. 

But an unexpected surge of trash bag costumes last night signals continued silent/hidden Trump support. So thats bad. 

On the other hand, apparently schoolchildren and illegal alien criminals are getting taxpayer funded sex changes without their consent. Before I decide whether thats good or bad for my 401k, can you tell me whether Ted Cruz had one?

Finally, Kamala refuses to do Rogan so she's basically signing a death warrant for the republic. Bad

But, it could be looking really close for Allred?  

Edited November 1 by texastough

[tx ind 7004]

11 minutes ago, texastough said:

Let me see if I understand Huck's chart.

Ignoring 2020, at this point we have record EV turnout both in raw numbers and as a % of registered voters (looks like we are around 7% ahead of 2016?). So thats good.

But, historically red counties have been leading the EV charge. So thats bad. But, they are starting to plateau and blue counties are catching up. So thats good. 

But an unexpected surge of trash bag costumes last night signals continued silent/hidden Trump support. So thats bad. 

On the other hand, apparently schoolchildren and illegal alien criminals are getting taxpayer funded sex changes without their consent. Before I decide whether thats good or bad for my 401k, can you tell me whether Ted Cruz had one?

Finally, Kamala refuses to do Rogan so she's basically signing a death warrant for the republic. Bad

But, it could be looking really close for Allred?  

How did you leave out the Chili’s vs Bennigan’s race?

[Dahobbs 17497]

According to Target Smart, 790,918 people have EV voted in Texas that did not vote in 2020, or 12% of the current vote. 443,655 of those weren't registered in 2020. I think more interesting is the 342,319 that were registered, but didn't vote in 2020 or 2022. Maybe those are GOP voters coming back to him. But I doubt it. Trump won Texas in 2020 by 600,000 votes. 

Edited November 1 by Dahobbs

[Huckleberry 32738]

Continued slowdown (not a surprise because of Halloween), redder counties slowed down slightly more again.

Edited November 1 by Huckleberry

[Dahobbs 17497]

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Continued slowdown (not a surprise because of Halloween), redder counties slowed down slightly more again.

Is your column header "2020 Comp. through D10" accurate or is that supposed to by D11? 

[Huckleberry 32738]

Should all say D11. Trying to update and work at the same time. 

[HenryJames 65919]

Well why don't you stop working.

[Valmy77 13193]

35 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Continued slowdown (not a surprise because of Halloween), redder counties slowed down slightly more again.

Yeah. Had the first day in awhile that wasn't the largest day of EV ever and I was like 'WTF happened?'

Right...Halloween. Of course.

Today is the last day so hopefully we will see something impressive.

All you slackers who haven't voted yet, get out there and do it.

Edited November 1 by Valmy77

[Js1 85161]

Last day of EV, also known as the "oh shit, I gotta vote" - let's go, young people! Don't wait until Tuesday. 

[bolverk 29476]

It seems like everything is settling in. No change in Kamala's projections from yesterday based on the three methods:

• 2020 partisanship split:                               45.6% Harris; 54.4% Trump + Field
• My calculated guess of shift:                      47.8% Harris; 52.2% Trump + Field
• Huckleberry's moderation of my guess:     46.6% Harris; 53.4% Trump + Field

[HRSchenker 2260]

Very disappointing to see our EV numbers not approach what we had in 2020 but I guess that should be expected. Dallas County is extending voting hours to 9PM and I would imagine that's why. Get out and vote people!

[Js1 85161]

Just now, HRSchenker said:

Very disappointing to see our EV numbers not approach what we had in 2020 but I guess that should be expected. Dallas County is extending voting hours to 9PM and I would imagine that's why. Get out and vote people!

2020 EV was 3 weeks long. 2024 is 2 weeks and was less mail and no drive-thru voting 

[David Dennison 18749]

It's mind-bottling to me that anyone votes on election day in Texas.

[Dahobbs 17497]

20 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

Very disappointing to see our EV numbers not approach what we had in 2020 but I guess that should be expected. Dallas County is extending voting hours to 9PM and I would imagine that's why. Get out and vote people!

 

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2020 EV was 3 weeks long. 2024 is 2 weeks and was less mail and no drive-thru voting 

Yeah. As a different comparison, EV in 2024 is currently up 47% on 2022 early vote with a day to go (8,060,049 EV in 2024 so far, 5,497,027 total EV in 2022). If the 2024 total vote is up 47% on 2022 total vote, you'd be looking at 11.9 million voters, which would surpass 2020 total vote by 800,000, or 107% of the 2020 vote. That would actually slightly outpace our population growth over the last 4 years.  Even if we get no other early votes and election day voting volume ends up the same as 2022 (a non-presidential year), you'd still be talking about 10.6 million voters. But we are obviously going to get more votes today. You could be super conservative and just use the totals from the 30th for today, which would by 619,000 votes. That alone would get us above the 2020 election totals. Unless election day is lighter than 2022, we'll easily pass 2020's vote numbers. 

[HenryJames 65919]

57 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

It's mind-bottling to me that anyone votes on election day in Texas.

People who go to the grocery store at noon on Sundays. 

[PhillyD 1257]

Am I reading Bolverk's map incorrectly? 

Example:  On the update today, Franklin County in NE Texas is yellow, but in prior days it had been green.  Is that possible?

Maybe there are others but that county stood out to me because it's where my parents live.  I know that would have negligible impact on any projections, but now I am curious.

[bejezuz 329]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

It's mind-bottling to me that anyone votes on election day in Texas.

People are creatures of habit that don't like change.  God forbid they have to go to a polling place that is different from the one they've gone to for 30 years. 

[bolverk 29476]

1 hour ago, PhillyD said:

Am I reading Bolverk's map incorrectly? 

Example:  On the update today, Franklin County in NE Texas is yellow, but in prior days it had been green.  Is that possible?

Maybe there are others but that county stood out to me because it's where my parents live.  I know that would have negligible impact on any projections, but now I am curious.

Yeah, so what happened was they had a shitty update from yesterday. Again, yellow is a 5%-point band (2.5% points on either side) and the statewide EV average.

So, turnout for Franklin County has been running ahead of the statewide pace, but locally very few votes were added yesterday for whatever reason, while the statewide tally increased.

Screenshot below to help you see it.

 

[BlackCat 415]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

It's mind-bottling to me that anyone votes on election day in Texas.

I don’t understand any of it at all. First day of voting, I was in and out in 15 minutes. No line. They could’ve had valet parking and it wouldn’t have been more convenient because I parked right next to the entrance. Middle of Houston. 

[BlackCat 415]

Everyone bitches and moans and fights over the holidays and people get mad at each other and people waste hours and hours over these elections. Then they don’t fucking vote. I’ll never understand it. I was shocked as a young lad when I found out that not only were there people that didn’t vote, but that like only half of people voted. Blew my mind. 

[Valmy77 13193]

4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

It's mind-bottling to me that anyone votes on election day in Texas.

A lot of people take the tradition of election day as sacred. But fuck that, it's a Tuesday and I got shit to do.

[Huckleberry 32738]

Final day continued the trend of late EV being more active in the urban areas.

[immamac 42713]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Final day continued the trend of late EV being more active in the urban areas.

Big turnout election day could push Texas blue. That's wild. 

[elfenix 34204]

17 hours ago, Valmy77 said:

A lot of people take the tradition of election day as sacred. But fuck that, it's a Tuesday and I got shit to do.

[Pato del Muerto 52384]

Just realized that on west coast time, when I get home at 6 the east coast will be done and mostly counted up. And if it ends up an obvious blowout, it could be over by the time i turn on the tv.  
 

Also is there a live rep/sen makeup tracker to reference as those results come in, rather than waiting for network updates?

[otisdog 365]

22 hours ago, David Dennison said:

It's mind-bottling to me that anyone votes on election day in Texas.

What's really mind bottling to me is who they vote for.....

[Js1 85161]

53 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Just realized that on west coast time, when I get home at 6 the east coast will be done and mostly counted up. And if it ends up an obvious blowout, it could be over by the time i turn on the tv.  
 

Also is there a live rep/sen makeup tracker to reference as those results come in, rather than waiting for network updates?

DDHQ is my go to. Usually call races earlier than the networks 

[BamaATL 16592]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

DDHQ is my go to. Usually call races earlier than the networks 

Got a link for that?  

[Js1 85161]

Just now, BamaATL said:

Got a link for that?  

https://decisiondeskhq.com

[Firemans4Horn 17999]

Hopium Chronicles

 

Quote

Meanwhile, and related to his repeated unraveling these past few weeks, the early vote keeps getting better for us nationally and in the battleground states. With 3 days to go there is clear evidence that we are moving the Presidential election towards us, on the ground. Using TargetEarly and the 2020 early vote at this time as a benchmark, and with the understanding that due to Republican prioritizing the early vote this time it was universally expected that they would do far better than 2020, a few 3 days out takeaways: 

• Republicans were performing 8.1 percentage points better than 2020 in the national early vote a few days ago. Today that lead is down to 4.5 points. 

• In the 7 battleground states Dems and Rs are running even, and Ds are currently outpacing the Rs in AZ, GA, MI, NE-2 and WI. 

• The unaffiliated category as a percentage of the early vote is rising everywhere. This is not a good development for the Rs as it is widely expected that the unaffiliated category will favor Dems this time, and will be more Dem than 2020. We also expect to do better with Rs than 2020. Taken together that means if we are running even in the 7 battleground states, as we are today, we are actually running ahead of our 2020 vote - a truly remarkable achievement, and a sign of the strength of our campaign. 

• Even though the national electorate is only 2.7 points more D than R today, in the various polls of the early vote we are running 20+ points better than Republicans. This is a confirmation that we are picking up a fair number of R and unaffiliated voters, and that we are heading into Election Day in better shape in the early vote than 2020, an election we won. 

Let’s look at the progress we’ve made in the four sunbelt states since October 23rd. This data compares the GOP lead in the early vote compared to 2020 to their lead/deficit today: 

• Arizona - On 10/23 Rs were outperforming the 2020 early vote by 7.9 percentage points. Today Democrats lead in AZ by 1 point.

• Georgia - On 10/23 Rs were outperforming the 2020 early vote by 2.6 percentage points. Today Democrats lead in GA by 2 points.

• Nevada - On 10/23 Rs were outperforming the 2020 early vote by 13.1 percentage points. Dems have cut this lead to 5.6 points. As Nevada Senator Cortez Masto explained in our recent Closing Strong interview, the unaffiliated vote in NV is going to be larger and more Dem due to the adopting of automatic voter registration in the state. In what is a good sign for us the percentage of the very D unaffiliated vote has risen a lot in recent days. In my view it is likely, given current trends, that we will enter E-D ahead of 2020 in the NV early vote. 

• North Carolina - On 10/23 Rs were outperforming the 2020 early vote by 11.1 percentage points. Dems have cut this lead to 2.6 points. As NC today has a higher share of its early vote coming in as unaffiliated than 2020, it is almost certain we are now outpacing our 2020 early vote here. 

As we’ve been discussing all week, as PA does not have early in person voting, only mail, there will be far less early vote here than in the other battleground states. Many PA Ds have decided to vote in person rather than by mail to ensure their vote is counted on Election Day. For all these reasons the PA early vote is far less important than in other states, and so that we are off a few points from 2020 isn’t that material. It’s a few points off from a smaller vote. PA is going to be an old fashioned Election Day state in 2024, and far too many are reading far too much into the current PA early vote returns. 

The bottom line - if anyone is winning the early vote right now it is us. Our superior campaign has repelled the GOP’s ferocious effort to improve their battleground state early vote performance, an omnibus sign for Trumpworld. And that my friends is not the only sign Trump the election is slipping away from Trump:
 

Many polls showed us tied or with leads in the battlegrounds this week:

• Arizona - 1 poll had us tied, 2 polls had us up 1, 1 had us up 2

• Georgia - we had more polls showing us down this week than up but the early vote looks really good - fingers crossed! 

• Michigan - 4 polls had us up 3, 1 had us up 4, 2 had us up 5 (big week!!!)

• Nevada - 2 polls had us up 1, 1 had us up 2 and 1 poll had us up 4

• North Carolina - 2 polls had us tied, 2 had us up 1

• Pennsylvania - 2 polls had us up 1, 1 had us up 2, 1 had us up 3

• Wisconsin - 2 polls had us 2, 1 had us up 3, 1 had us up 4, and another had us up 6 (big week!)

Where is the election today? I still think we are up by 2-4 points nationally and in a stronger position in the Electoral College - despite what the averages and forecasters say. We’ve had an encouraging closing week of polling in the battlegrounds and are now overperforming and winning the early vote too. The VP is far better liked, and likeable, something that matters to late breaking voters. We’ve closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge campaign achievement. Our campaign is firing on all cylinders. Our candidate is bringing it every day. We are closing strong, really strong. They are closing ugly, really, really ugly. 

A flurry of red wave polls pushed the polling averages down in the past few weeks and tipped them to Trump - illegitimately in my view. Since late August 32 right-affiliated organizations have released over 125 polls into the averages In the last few days we’ve seen a huge escalation of these efforts, with 58 polls released since Sunday, a majority of all polls released this week.

 

[Js1 85161]

11 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

the unaffiliated vote in NV is going to be larger and more Dem due to the adopting of automatic voter registration in the state

Didn’t some guy on here say that?

[StassneyHorn 6563]

Georgia women outvoting men by 485,039



Michigan women outvoting men by 273,429



North Carolina women outvoting men by 437,119



And in Pennsylvania, a 399,890 gap between registered Democrats to Republicans


 

[bolverk 29476]

According to the SoS's website, 47.32% of registered Texans have voted. This is going to be slightly off because they fucked up the reporting in Brazoria and Taylor (Abilene) counties, where they had turnout at 6.97% (previously 50.10) for Brazoria and 1.60% (previously 38.75%) for Taylor. I went ahead and assumed they forgot to type in the first digit, so I gave 56.97% to Brazoria and 41.60% to Taylor.

That said, my spreadsheet now shows Kamala with 48.1% of the early vote in Texas and 51.9% for Trump plus the rest of the field. Using Huckleberry's modified formula, she's at 46.6%. If the voting patterns from 2020 at the county level did not change, Kamala would have 46.7%. Averaging those out puts her at 47.1%, which would be a 0.6% improvement over Biden's 2020 results (46.5%).

One notable development is that all of the Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, and Travis) were at or above the statewide early voting pace for the first time this week. Yesterday must have been a busy day at the polls in the big cities.

I obviously have no special incite over which partisans have a better turnout in Texas during early voting, so there's really no way of telling. But, solely because of "vibes," I'll go out on a limb and predict Kamala will take home about 48% of the Texas final count, which would be a modest 1.6% point improvement over Biden.

Early Voting Turnout by County with my assumed Brazoria and Taylor County inputs (if they update these by Monday, I'll recreate the map and calculations):

 

 

[Valmy77 13193]

2 hours ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Hopium Chronicles

That is some premium gourmet hopium. 

[sushihorn 3233]

Georgia EV is essentially done. Some mail in ballots will still trickle in but there aren’t enough left outstanding to change much: <70k.

Total early raw votes cast is huge: 4.02 million. It’s likely that 75-80%of total votes in this election are already on the books. The most glaring disparity to me is racial difference in turnout. White turnout in EV stands at 63.0% vs 49.7% black turnout per the GA SOS data hub.

I haven’t seen a gap like that before. Pre-Obama the national turnout gap was usually 7-10%. The SOS website allows you to play with county level data so I checked the trend within the core counties of Metro Atlanta. 
 

Cobb: 67.6% of white registered voters turned out to EV. 58.1% of black RVs did the same. 

deKalb: 72.1 white, 53.9 black

Fulton: 72.7 white, 49.3 black

As a check I also got data for a heavily white and GOP Cherokee County: 65.9 white, 56.1 black, 55.7 other or unknown. 

Bottom line is that Metro Atlanta isn’t generating the number or kind of votes needed for a D victory. The white and rural vote turned out. Senior citizens turned out. The Election Day vote will have to be either huge, really skewed to D friendly demos or some combination to pull this one out. Like NV, the number of votes already cast in GA make it difficult for what’s left on Election Day to alter the trend. 

[tx 3 putt 76564]

On 11/2/2024 at 1:45 PM, bolverk said:

According to the SoS's website, 47.32% of registered Texans have voted. This is going to be slightly off because they fucked up the reporting in Brazoria and Taylor (Abilene) counties, where they had turnout at 6.97% (previously 50.10) for Brazoria and 1.60% (previously 38.75%) for Taylor. I went ahead and assumed they forgot to type in the first digit, so I gave 56.97% to Brazoria and 41.60% to Taylor.

That said, my spreadsheet now shows Kamala with 48.1% of the early vote in Texas and 51.9% for Trump plus the rest of the field. Using Huckleberry's modified formula, she's at 46.6%. If the voting patterns from 2020 at the county level did not change, Kamala would have 46.7%. Averaging those out puts her at 47.1%, which would be a 0.6% improvement over Biden's 2020 results (46.5%).

One notable development is that all of the Big Five counties (Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Tarrant, and Travis) were at or above the statewide early voting pace for the first time this week. Yesterday must have been a busy day at the polls in the big cities.

I obviously have no special incite over which partisans have a better turnout in Texas during early voting, so there's really no way of telling. But, solely because of "vibes," I'll go out on a limb and predict Kamala will take home about 48% of the Texas final count, which would be a modest 1.6% point improvement over Biden.

Early Voting Turnout by County with my assumed Brazoria and Taylor County inputs (if they update these by Monday, I'll recreate the map and calculations):

 

 

 

we need a much bigger turnout from all the counties with a whole foods. until that changes, this state stays red 

[Biff Tannen 45551]

27 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Georgia EV is essentially done. Some mail in ballots will still trickle in but there aren’t enough left outstanding to change much: <70k.

Total early raw votes cast is huge: 4.02 million. It’s likely that 75-80%of total votes in this election are already on the books. The most glaring disparity to me is racial difference in turnout. White turnout in EV stands at 63.0% vs 49.7% black turnout per the GA SOS data hub.

I haven’t seen a gap like that before. Pre-Obama the national turnout gap was usually 7-10%. The SOS website allows you to play with county level data so I checked the trend within the core counties of Metro Atlanta. 
 

Cobb: 67.6% of white registered voters turned out to EV. 58.1% of black RVs did the same. 

deKalb: 72.1 white, 53.9 black

Fulton: 72.7 white, 49.3 black

As a check I also got data for a heavily white and GOP Cherokee County: 65.9 white, 56.1 black, 55.7 other or unknown. 

Bottom line is that Metro Atlanta isn’t generating the number or kind of votes needed for a D victory. The white and rural vote turned out. Senior citizens turned out. The Election Day vote will have to be either huge, really skewed to D friendly demos or some combination to pull this one out. Like NV, the number of votes already cast in GA make it difficult for what’s left on Election Day to alter the trend. 

@BamaATL what say you?

[cactusflinthead 27596]

 

[Dahobbs 17497]

55 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Georgia EV is essentially done. Some mail in ballots will still trickle in but there aren’t enough left outstanding to change much: <70k.

Total early raw votes cast is huge: 4.02 million. It’s likely that 75-80%of total votes in this election are already on the books. The most glaring disparity to me is racial difference in turnout. White turnout in EV stands at 63.0% vs 49.7% black turnout per the GA SOS data hub.

I haven’t seen a gap like that before. Pre-Obama the national turnout gap was usually 7-10%. The SOS website allows you to play with county level data so I checked the trend within the core counties of Metro Atlanta. 
 

Cobb: 67.6% of white registered voters turned out to EV. 58.1% of black RVs did the same. 

deKalb: 72.1 white, 53.9 black

Fulton: 72.7 white, 49.3 black

As a check I also got data for a heavily white and GOP Cherokee County: 65.9 white, 56.1 black, 55.7 other or unknown. 

Bottom line is that Metro Atlanta isn’t generating the number or kind of votes needed for a D victory. The white and rural vote turned out. Senior citizens turned out. The Election Day vote will have to be either huge, really skewed to D friendly demos or some combination to pull this one out. Like NV, the number of votes already cast in GA make it difficult for what’s left on Election Day to alter the trend. 

Keep trying.

[BamaATL 16592]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

@BamaATL what say you?

Factually some of what he says is true, but that's also where knowing the statistical side of things doesn't tell the entire story, i.e. context.  

1.  Fulton County really has two sides to it, the part north of the Chattahoochee River, where the vast majority of the population is white, and the part south; which is anything but.  (North Fulton County has tried on multiple occasions to form a new county called Milton County, but state law prohibits more than our current 159, so it's been thwarted even when they attempted to buy two poor south Georgia counties into a merger).  Also, not quite sure where he his getting his numbers, the current white vote, updated as of today was 199k white, 155k black , 13k Hispanic, 20k Asian, 55k other.  Additionally, the thought that this is some Republican push doesn't jive with the numbers.  of the 442k that have voted, only 22k 4.9% were day of voters in 2020.  Of the remainder, 71.6% or 317k were ev's from 2020, and 104k or 23.5% are 2020 non voters (the reality is that 2020 non voters aren't likely to buck the county averages by any statistically meaningful amount, rather they are far more likely to follow a similar voting pattern).  It's also not uncommon for the population in south Fulton County to be more heavily involved in day of voting.  Long story short, save a blizzard coming thru Atlanta on Tuesday, I wouldn't expect much a shift here.

2.  Dekalb County - A similar voting pattern exists, and while the complexity of Dekalb County is different, I also wouldn't look at this as being any different that Fulton. The mere notion that suddenly there was an influx of Trump voters in Dekalb a routine 80%+ Democratic county is so absurd I can't do anything but laugh at it.  

3.  Cobb County would be the only of the three where there might be some level of concern.  It is the closest of the three to be purple, and the most recent to shift.  However, it's been heading in that direction for 20ish years and turned 4 years ago.  It also has really 3 parts of it.  East Cobb, which abuts North Fulton, a balanced area that slightly favors Republicans, Marietta in the middle (Truist Park-Braves stadium) the most densely populated area, and very Democratic, and West Cobb, again a balanced area which slightly favors Republicans.  

Turnout will still be important, as it always is, but when basically same 80% has already turned out that did the last time, which is true of all three places, I'd say it's likely the outcome will be about the same, just add in the new voters at a similar percentage.  None of these three areas will have a significant shift beyond a couple of points either way in percentage R to D.  Cobb would be the only one that I would give any chance at moving more that a couple of points, and I'd be surprised if it's more that 3 points in either direction.  Cobb would be the only county where a demographic shift would impact much, and if it proves out, it would be because of an influx of likely Democratic voters, not the other way around.  

Also, I'd say it's worthy of mention that one of the pitfalls of presuming that racial makeup determines voting decisions in polling is that at least some of the time that's dead wrong.  For example, while white people in North Fulton are apt to be of a Republican persuasion, white people in South Fulton are apt to be Democratic.  Certainly that isn't universal, but that's an important distinction.  I think it matters far more where the people are, not just the stats, and to a degree, you have to at least understand the area and the local politics.  I'd also point out that the same can be said in some south Georgia counties, where while you a county with a high black population; thinking that it makes it automatically Democratic is wrong.  We have a few counties that have a high black population (relative to total percentage, but small overall) but a consistently red (has to do with farming and a whole lot of other history, which is very interesting, but I digress).  

Bottom line, I don't see a shift here at all.  This is Republican dreamcasting.  

I put the link for data on Georgia for any interested below.  

https://www.georgiavotes.com/

 

[Js1 85161]

Ralston working on his predictions. He must be waiting for the weekend mail dump before he posts it. Otherwise, I’m not sure why he’d wait if he thinks Trump wins 

[BamaATL 16592]

9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

@BamaATL what say you?

There is one other thing I sort of can't believe I didn't think to mention about South Fulton County as it relates to demographics, in particular white voters.  About 100k of the white population is gay/LGBTQ community.  That having been said, certainly not every member of the LGBTQ community will vote, nor will they all vote Democratic; but I'm gonna go ahead and wager that most of them will.  So again, demographics by racial divide alone doesn't tell the entire story.  

I should say, I suppose one of the reasons that I am proud to be from Atlanta (though born and college educated in Alabama - family ties on that one) is that Atlanta's success has always been predicated on the idea of tolerance and acceptance of others.  Is that always perfect?  Certainly not.  This in fact so normal, and has been my entire life, that I didn't even stop think of it as being somewhat exceptional earlier as it applies to this conversation.  Basically, half of downtown is gay, and everyone around here knows that, and absolutely no one cares; which quite honestly is exactly how that should be in my opinion.  

So there's that.  

[sushihorn 3233]

Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year?

I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

[BamaATL 16592]

5 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year?

I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

When was the last time you had 4 million people vote prior to election day in Georgia?  There is bound to be some level of statistical drift because what is happening is unprecedented.  Also, nothing here is in a fish bowl or stagnant, we are one of the fastest growing areas in the country, so of course there is going to be drift in terms of demographics.  

However, if you want to believe that this all somehow driven by enthusiasm for Donald Trump in one of the most Democratic areas in the entire country, by all means.  We will know in about 36 hours.  One of us is right, one isn't, I concede my bias on this.  I've made my call in the prediction thread, I did it on Saturday, and I stand by it.  I could be wrong.  

[Huckleberry 32738]

33 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year?

I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

Do you have the early voting turnout by race for the 2016 election? If not then all of this is meaningless.

[Dahobbs 17497]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Bama, when was the last time you saw a 13% turnout gap by race in a presidential year?

I’m using the SoS’s election data hub. I linked it in my earlier post.

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout#

Why is turnout percentage the metric you think matters?

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Do you have the early voting turnout by race for the 2016 election? If not then all of this is meaningless.

We don't have 2016, but we could use one of his favorite sources, TargetSmart, and see numbers for 2020 and 2022. According to that, the difference in 2020 was 12.2%  (58.4% - 70.6%) for the final vote. In 2022 it was similar at 12.8% (43.7% - 56.5%). 

One thing to know, Georgia is a bit tricky about voters roll and what it uses as turnout percentage. It is comparing "active" voters, which is actually a significantly smaller number than registered voters.

https://www.11alive.com/article/news/politics/elections/how-many-registered-voters-in-georgia/85-09aed09a-c375-4b6a-8618-62a34ba07d5b

For instance, in 2022, Georgia has 7,007,154 "active voters" but probably closer to 7.9 million registered voters. The TargetSmart numbers are using an estimate for registered voters. The Georgia Secretary of State data is all based upon "active" voters. 

Based on the numbers from Election Data Hub, Georgia today has:

• 3,574,436 active white voters (2,251,895 / .63) [turnout divided by turnout %]
• 2,054,386 active black voters (1,021,030 / .497) [turnout divided by turnout %]

Georgia's Active Voters Report provides data as of December 2021 (https://sos.ga.gov/georgia-active-voters-report), which shows:

• 3,716,904 active white voters
• 2,058,705 active black voters

Based on that, there are 142,468 fewer active white voters now than in 2021, a 3.8% decrease. And there are 4,319 fewer active black voters, a .2% decrease. Because active white voters decreased more, each white vote is going to count more in terms of turnout percentage (as used by Georgia with "active voters"). If you were to compare the current votes with the 2021 active voter numbers, the turnout difference becomes less stark and compares favorably with 2020 and 2022 at 11%. (60.5 - 49.5)

Finally, I'll note that the Election Data Hub numbers are somewhat suspect. For instance, the top line number currently reports 4,017,718 votes, 7,242,975 active voters, for a 55.5% turnout (that math checks out). However, if you add up all the votes for each race (or each gender), the total numbers of votes is only 3.8 million. I'm not sure if the topline is updated separately from the breakouts or if the whole thing is generally broken.  

Edited November 4 by Dahobbs

[Huckleberry 32738]

Yeah I wish the Georgia site had better historical data. Based on your numbers above, the entire difference in turnout by race compared to previous elections is a decrease in active white voters. This matches with the Georgia site data from 2022 compared to 2024.

2022 - There were 44.05% as many black ballots as white ballots (2,358,582 white ballots, 1,038,873 black ballots)
2024 - There are 45.34% as many black ballots as white ballots (2,251,895 white ballots, 1,021,030 black ballots)

Despite the fact that white turnout is up as reported by Georgia, their share of the electorate is down so far.

Edited November 4 by Huckleberry

[Gatorubet 30163]

6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Despite the fact that white turnout is up as reported by Georgia, their share of the electorate is down so far.

and if increased white turnout is comprised of suburban women - and maybe the unanticipated large number of older voters who have been seen in other states polls voting for Harris in greater percentages than previously, that increased white turnout might not be the GOP panacea sushi wants. 

[Huckleberry 32738]

Some more data after finding stuff on the GA site (I think this is all registered voters, not active, based on the column headers):

2016 - Black turnout 1,151,949/2,048,904 = 56.22%; White turnout 2,529,810/3,727,549 = 67.87%; 11.65% white turnout advantage; 45.54% black-to-white ballot ratio
2020 - Black turnout 1,373,543/2,290,365 = 59.97%; White turnout 2,924,829/4,029,156 = 72.59%; 12.62% white turnout advantage; 46.96% black-to-white ballot ratio

So in Presidential elections the current ratio is indeed a bit lower (huge caveat: this year's info is early voting only while the above past years are total voting including election day) but not nearly as drastic as sushihorn is making it seem. In fact the white turnout advantage went up from 2016 to 2020 when Georgia went from going for Trump to going for Biden. And you can also see that the white turnout advantage went up while their share of the electorate went down due specifically to what we talked about above. Their share of registered/active voters is going down.

Edited November 4 by Huckleberry