Early Voting Tracker- Elections Lab

[tx 3 putt 76421]

so much for a big houston turn out tomorrow ….

 

[Js1 85130]

12-7 will be BUSY.  As long as you're in line, you get to vote. 

If you aren't a massive puss, 7-12 will probably be pretty dead. 

[swraith 336]

12 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

so much for a big houston turn out tomorrow ….

 

Just another example of why people should early vote and not wait until election day.

[tx 3 putt 76421]

3 minutes ago, swraith said:

Just another example of why people should early vote and not wait until election day.

 

vote early and often 

abbott is celebrating this forecast, dream scenario for maga gqp 

[bolverk 29414]

I don't know where to put this but since this is the thread where we're trying to analyze shit, I figured this piece on the effect that Californians have on Texas voting patterns belongs here. It's got some interactive elements and not paywalled (at least for me), so I'm just going to drop in the link.

tl;dr: Not much, if any, in the big picture.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/projects/2024/california-texas-politics/

[DigglerontheHoof 21070]

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

so much for a big houston turn out tomorrow ….

 

https://www.mountvernon.org/george-washington/the-revolutionary-war/washingtons-revolutionary-war-battles/the-trenton-princeton-campaign/10-facts-about-washingtons-crossing-of-the-delaware-river

Washington crossed the Delaware on Christmas; Houston can weather a thunderstorm. 

[bluto 4895]

Unless there’s monster crossover in az, not digging the position of Harris. Massive holes in both Nv and az, hopefully both are immaterial

[Dahobbs 17450]

17 minutes ago, bluto said:

Unless there’s monster crossover in az, not digging the position of Harris. Massive holes in both Nv and az, hopefully both are immaterial

Significantly more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats in Arizona in 2020 and 2022. It worked out ok. The hole isn't massive at all. 

[texasdago 7553]

And there may be a not insignificant shift with Mormons.

Also, abortion is on the ballot in AZ. How does that not help Kamala?

[Satchel 6908]

Texas has just over 18,000,000 registered voters, of which about half have already voted. If we’re not careful, we’re gonna fool around and lose our status as a non voting state.

[BamaATL 16592]

11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

Texas has just over 18,000,000 registered voters, of which about half have already voted. If we’re not careful, we’re gonna fool around and lose our status as a non voting state.

And that's when the whores show up.  

[henrygandorf 29179]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Significantly more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats in Arizona in 2020 and 2022. It worked out ok. The hole isn't massive at all. 

men, women, black, white, none of it will matter as much as the crossover voters. kamala has been leading on these, if she gets her margin, that’s the election. 

[henrygandorf 29179]

wrong thread. 

Edited November 5 by henrygandorf

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Significantly more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats in Arizona in 2020 and 2022. It worked out ok. The hole isn't massive at all. 

John McCain Republicans aren’t big on Trump.

If women over 65 are breaking heavily for Harris keep in mind AZ has a huge retiree population.

Harris takes AZ.

[sushihorn 3233]

Ralston posted his prediction for Nevada this morning. Presidential quoted here but there are also down ballot races in the link. 
Ralston in NV 

Quote

Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.

 

[C-Man 27069]

Does somebody have a cheat sheet of the most crucial counties in the battleground states and the % needed for either Kamala or Trump to feel good? Like does somebody maybe have the 2-3 most important counties for Kamala and what she needs to hit to have a good indication that she can snag the state? Does this exist?

[bluto 4895]

8 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Does somebody have a cheat sheet of the most crucial counties in the battleground states and the % needed for either Kamala or Trump to feel good? Like does somebody maybe have the 2-3 most important counties for Kamala and what she needs to hit to have a good indication that she can snag the state? Does this exist?

ATL poster on here says 

Cherokee, Forsyth, and Hall Counties, none will flip, but they are big enough to matter while small enough to be some of the earlier ones to report. If any of these, and of course preferably all of them report slippages in R support it will mean a couple of things, the first being that Trump most likely can't win in Georgia, and the second being that just how big the drift is from Trump.

 

 

[tx 3 putt 76421]

not a good showing for harris county at all, cruz has to be feeling good ….

 

[C-Man 27069]

Well, I've read through several articles and this is a something I've quickly thrown together. If I get bored later, I might actually go and add the actual vote totals from '16 and '20 to make it more helpful.

Quote

Swing State County Notes

ARIZONA

Maricopa — Trump +3 in ’16; Biden +2 in ’20; Biden won AZ by 10K votes in ’20, had 45K edge in Maricopa

 

GEORGIA

Chattanooga — chunk of evangelical voters

Cherokee — GOP-leaning sub/exurb of Marietta

Cobb — ATL suburb (Kamala needs double-digit margin)

DeKalb — 

Fayette — GOP won in ’20 but barely (CRUCIAL)

Forsyth — GOP-leaning sub/exurb of Marietta (Romney 80%; Trump 67% in ’20)

Fulton — ATL, duh

Gwinnett — ATL suburb (need double-digit margin)

 

MICHIGAN

Grand Traverse — wealthy NW area, trending toward Dems; Trump trying to reverse

Kent — Romney 53%, Trump 48% in ’16, Biden 42% in ’20

Macomb — Kamala needs good showing

Oakland — Hillary barely won in ’16, Biden did better in ’20

Saginaw — Obama won twice, Trump by 1K votes in ’16, Biden by 303 in ’20

Wayne — Obama 73% in ’12, Hillary and Biden didn’t match that

 

NEVADA

Clark — Biden +3

Washoe — Reno

 

NORTH CAROLINA

Anson — Biden +4, Hillary +13

Cabarrus — Trump won in ’20 but 10 points shaved off lead

Henderson — south of Asheville (Trump 62% in ’16, 59% in ’20; Romney 63% in ’12)

Mecklenburg -- 

Nash — east of Raleigh, Trump in ’16, Biden in ’20

Union — can it flip Dem? Hillary 32% in ’16, Biden 37%

Wake — largest # of registered Dems, anemic turnout; need big numbers

 

PENNSYLVANIA

Berks -- won by Trump by less than 10% in ’20)

Bucks — key “collar county” that is Trump’s best opp to make progress in Philly burbs b/c higher share of non-college-educated whites

Erie — blue-collar swing county (+2 Trump in ’16; +1 Biden in ’20)

Lackawanna — Scranton area, Obama +28, HIllary +3, Biden +8

Monroe -- 

Northampton — one of the best bellwether counties in recent memory, picking the POTUS winner for decades (Biden won by less than 1%)

 

WISCONSIN

Brown — where Trump held his dumptruck stunt

Dane — need to be big for Harris; Biden 181K votes in ’20, Hillary 146K in ’16

Milwaukee — need to be big for Harris

Ozaukee — WOW county where Biden got 43% in ’20, best Dem showing since ’64

Washington — WOW county Trump increased vote share from ’16 to ’20 (only WOW county he did that)

Waukesha — WOW county, McCain 62%, Trump 59.7% in ’20

 

NON SWING STATE NOTES

FLORIDA

Miami-Dade — if Kamala under-performs, could be a bad sign

 

[Dahobbs 17450]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

not a good showing for harris county at all, cruz has to be feeling good ….

 

Eh, there was a rain storm all morning. You're looking for 400,000+ today to match 2020. 

[immamac 42536]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

not a good showing for harris county at all, cruz has to be feeling good ….

 

been storming all morning. nothing burger.

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

harris has been clear for 90 minutes

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

i can't find a kprc2 live stream in the clear - they appear to want you to download their app and i don't do apps

khou11: https://www.khou.com/watch

ktrk13: https://abc13.com/watch/live/

kriv26: https://www.fox26houston.com/live

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

current wait times in harris

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

[Hagbard Celine 10763]

the story is the same for the 500 locations as you move further out

no wait

all green

not good

[Dahobbs 17450]

12 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the story is the same for the 500 locations as you move further out

no wait

all green

not good

stop crying. It is fine. 

[sushihorn 3233]

It’s mostly looking like a base election. A lot of good suggestions above. What I will look at first is the states that finish counting and report early. We can probably infer a lot from turnout and margin in Miami-Dade (Hispanic) and Broward (black) counties in FL. Is Harris holding those base voters? Miami has to be compared to 2020, not other Hispanic areas due to the high percentage of Cubans. 

Trump needs the same from rural white and exurban voters. He also needs to get a favorable split from traditionally R suburbs that move away from him last time. My first look for the last group will be Hamilton Co, IN. It went from Trump+19 in 2016 to +7 in 2020.

Appalachia stretches from W PA to N GA and includes W NC. KY almost always is early to report and you can look at eastern counties there to see how Trump’s support is in the region. Laurel and Pulaski Counties voted overwhelmingly for him both times and have substantial numbers of voters: 25-30k each.

For exurbs, I’m back to FL; it’s the most sprawling of the early reporting states. I’m looking at Collier (Naples) in the SW and Clay (outside of Jacksonville) for my initial read.

 

[Gatorubet 30121]

2 hours ago, sushihorn said:

It’s mostly looking like a base election.

 

if old people - and especially old women - are breaking hard for Kamala, I don’t believe that is an accurate statement. 

[Slacks 6791]

2 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the story is the same for the 500 locations as you move further out

no wait

all green

not good

it is good... in the past, you had to vote at your polling place, which always seemed to bottleneck in certain neighborhoods. i've walked out of line and left before... now there are multiple places around me... (but I early vote to get that out of the way).

[sushihorn 3233]

For Congess, there are 2 swing districts in VA: VA-3 is in the Tidewater area and VA-7 is exurban NoVA. VA-7 also features Alexander Vindman on the D side, so it’s an especially good proxy for sentiment towards Trump. 

[Valmy77 13096]

So far seeing a leftward shift in all the votes reported in Indiana so far. Does that mean anything?

[StassneyHorn 6540]

My thread is now....... *LOCKED*

until I unlock it to gloat

[Valmy77 13096]

3 hours ago, sushihorn said:

My first look for the last group will be Hamilton Co, IN. It went from Trump+19 in 2016 to +7 in 2020.

So far Harris +1 with 65% counted. Is that good?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23362]

Admins in disarray 

[Firemans4Horn 17840]

[StassneyHorn 6540]

6 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Admins in disarray 

Opened

Kamala underperforming the single best President anyone has ever seen. Haven’t seen the calls in the “wall” yet, but major weasel on her part.

[StassneyHorn 6540]

EVERYONE COME IN HERE AND SUCK @sushihorn'S TINY PEEN

[Pato del Muerto 52344]

5 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

EVERYONE COME IN HERE AND SUCK @sushihorn'S TINY PEEN

Sushi’s posts kept me tethered to a reality where this was possible and not an unthinkable shock, and for that I am grateful. 

[babysdaddy 2718]

Great job @sushihorn  Only poster here that was dealing in reality.

Edited November 6 by babysdaddy

[StassneyHorn 6540]

Hand up, I thought for sure the gender gap was going to play out differently.