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Week 5 2024, Mississippi State @ Texas


Wulaw Horn

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, sometimes you get smack talk in this post. Sometimes you get talk of beatings we are going to lay down. Sometimes you get hype.  Occasionally, you get nerves and excitement. This time, something different. Going to talk a little about what college football means and getting older…

Once upon a time, football was a way for me to be involved with other people and act like a normal person, growing up. It was how I related to my grandpa and dad and uncles and stuff like that. They wouldn’t want to talk about current events, or how the world works, or history or economics or faith or other stuff I was interested in growing up. But, we could always relate to each other over a football game. 

Later in life, it became a reason to go “home”, a reason to call or text my friends. I always had a much better pulse on my friend group from August to January- when we text each other during game week about what would happen or game watching, and throw in stuff about engagements, marriages, weddings, divorces, pregnancies, births, jobs, achievements and the like. Relationships that go into hibernation for much of the year become normal again during the football season. 

It could be a reason to travel, cut loose, drink, enjoy yourself and put aside responsibilities that turn you from a normal person back into the care free life that you put aside when responsibilities became more pressing. 


Now- as I get older, it’s a chance to show my kids the world, build memories that will last forever etc. I always say baseball with its day to day is like background music and a soundtrack to life in that year. Football, however, acts like a calendar that marks years and seasons and the passage of time for me. I love it and getting to take my baby and last child to her first game ever was and seeing the wonder and awe in her face throughout the trip was as good as anything I’ve ever done. That’s how you turn a glorified scrimmage against a shitty ULM team into one of the best gameday experiences of my life. 


This is the last time anyone will ever have to indulge my navel gazing asshattery in this space. Seeing our glorious leader @immamacat the tailgate with his 4 year throwing the football was cool as he’s doing that same kind of thing. 

On to next week against Mississippi State as the SEC kicks off. They are terrible and we should win convincingly. Then, it’s bye and OU in Dallas which is normal UT fare. I don’t believe we will have our first “welcome to the SEC” moment until we host Georgia. Klan aggy doesn’t interest me any more than corn aggy, or dust bowl aggy ever did. But it’s coming and it’s going to be awesome. 

MSU game week stuff happens here. Enjoy this ride fellas. 


here’s my daughters first game pregame:

 

IMG_1391.jpeg

Is your daughter the blonde? Please tell me your daughter is the blonde....

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I can relate to this.  The TEXAS/aggy game was always a big deal for family and friend alike.  As we all graduated HS and left for college, jobs or wtfever.  We all went back home for Thanksgiving.  Everyone gathered for the meal and subsequent game thereafter.  TEXAS fans were outnumbered, probably 2 to 1 in the room.  But we held our own.  It began to dawn on me the importance of the day and how much it meant to the older folks about family.  Our kids still talk about going to the last game in collie station.  Since then, they had their issues/arguments/blah blah, but they do put it aside for Thanksgiving dinner and football.  I think we will do T-day on Nov 30 this year and make some new memories.  I'm thinking I'll get some type of aggy bumper stickers made and slip out unnoticed and put 'em on aggy cars.  Maybe, "Honk, if you liked today's score" or "I'm aggy and doing the best I can".  

Edited by Bevo&Pevo
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53 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Much like Quinn Ewers oblique, I'm partially torn on whether I want him to start this week or wait until OU to come back.

I would love to see him play the 1st half next week and have the ability to start Arch in the 2nd half up 28-0 

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33 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Mississippi State is easily the worst team in the SEC.

They can’t run, they can’t pass, they can’t tackle, and they can’t defend the pass for shit. 

They adore Jackie Sherrill and his clown obsession. 

These idiots think cowbells are innovative and intimidating. 

ULM has better personnel at multiple positions compared to these redneck dipshits. 

Texas wins by more than 50. 

At least they have the fun, ethical, likeable presence of a Briles family member at HC.

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

This is what they mean when they say the kinder gentler surly. 

I mean- when you are in a stretch of 5 games (even if one of them was the defending national champs at their place) where you are just going to dominance hump everyone  on your schedule the material to be surly about is hard to find. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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4 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Another game with 50 place. Reminds me of the early 2000s.  
 

52 points minimum as much as I love the deep ball. I don’t think swing pass or 60 yard bomb should be our passing attack. But I also like to fuck with OU since they won’t know what we are bringing 

Swing passes if thrown as well as Quinn does then with the athletes we have as a constraint play are just so so deadly. Arch being mid at that is what killed multiple drives. I’m in favor of throwing those swings like 6 or 8 times a game with Quinn. It’s a simple and effective long handoff to an athlete in space when done correctly. 

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15 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Another game with 50 place. Reminds me of the early 2000s.  
 

52 points minimum as much as I love the deep ball. I don’t think swing pass or 60 yard bomb should be our passing attack. But I also like to fuck with OU since they won’t know what we are bringing 

That game was next level. 10 attempts of 20+ yards on 29 attempts. Huge difference from seeing Sark and Quinn shredding people in the short and intermediate game this season. I don’t remember seeing much motion on offense either. 

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We've played plenty of bad teams in the Big 12 like Miss State, Florida, Vandy etc.  The interesting thing is the difference about being in the SEC is we are not a "be all, end all statement game" for any of those teams.  I'm not saying they all don't want to win, and certainly, as an AP 1 wouldn't like to take us down but it's not the jihad it was for say Tech, TCU, Baylor, even KSU etc (even when we sucked it was still a jihad for them)

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Model snapshot:

image.png.a9c7f89dff090c5ce6165a0634b52d98.png

Spread goes off the chart.  CBA to change it for this game.

I'm going to spoiler further commentary, but I'm fairly certain Texas is a bit overrated in the model.   The model does do a fantastic job of tampering the results against cupcakes, but in general there are not many reliable data points at this point in the season.  Especially for us right now.  I would point you to the "Confidence" rankings for both units. 

Spoiler

"Confidence" is basically a measure of how good the model thinks it can predict your team going forward.   This being poor doesn't really mean the model thinks we are possibly bad on either side of the ball, but that we are somewhere between a top 10 unit and something to tell your grandkids that you were alive for.  The best way to improve this is playing teams around the same ability. For example, MSST offense has a decent confidence ranking.  It is the #86 offense and has played the #55, #71, #89 defenses, so basically it has been tested against competition that it compares well to.  (FWIW, the #1 ranking does take into account the confidence of the model.  So the model still thinks we are likely the #1 offense and defense even after considering it has low confidence in our data so far.)  Many top teams don't have good confidence rankings right now, it's just how non-conference competition works for teams near the top.  Our Strength of Record is still #1 right now.

This is kind of balanced out by the high "Consistency" rankings.  Which is a similar metric, but backward-looking.  Knowing what we know now, how accurately does the model predict the games already played? Pretty damn good for Texas.

Basically, the data points line up well for us, but how telling can playing Michigan plus 3 dogs actually be?

 

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1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

We've played plenty of bad teams in the Big 12 like Miss State, Florida, Vandy etc.  The interesting thing is the difference about being in the SEC is we are not a "be all, end all statement game" for any of those teams.  I'm not saying they all don't want to win, and certainly, as an AP 1 wouldn't like to take us down but it's not the jihad it was for say Tech, TCU, Baylor, even KSU etc (even when we sucked it was still a jihad for them)

and if its close or an upset......thats how it is in the sec from the media, or the media will still hate Texas?? well find out ,but I think media will run with Texas hate and we aren't ready for sec 

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2 hours ago, Codaxx said:

That game was next level. 10 attempts of 20+ yards on 29 attempts. Huge difference from seeing Sark and Quinn shredding people in the short and intermediate game this season. I don’t remember seeing much motion on offense either. 


Doesn’t seem like we’ve dug very deep into the playbook yet. We really haven’t needed to.

 

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18 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:


Doesn’t seem like we’ve dug very deep into the playbook yet. We really haven’t needed to.

 

It just a different approach with Manning under center. Motion and as cut dramatically in the UTSA game, when Quinn left. Sark is simplifying the offense for Manning and taking a different approach. 

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  • immamac changed the title to Week 5 2024, Mississippi State @ Texas

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