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Week Five Preview: It Just Means More


texifornia

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Main screen viewing plan.  There are a lot of other good football games in the evening slot. 

Noon: #20 Oklahoma State @ #23 Kansas State with Kentucky @ #6 Ole Miss on upset alert.

Afternoon:  Mississippi State @ #1 Texas

Evening:  #2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama

After Dark: Washington State @ #25 Boise State Wazzou is being slept on right now.

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I'm kind of rooting for Akansas this year. I don't share their hatred (even though I was there in 2021) and the offense is fun. They're an underdog story. Pittman seems cool and the Petrino story line is entertaining. I'm hoping they beat A&M and make a little noise in the SEC mid tier. 

Edited by Bodacious Bevo
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50 minutes ago, texifornia said:

 

So we just continue our SEC schedule?  Fuck that, I'd like to play some other teams.  I wonder if the committee will get creative w seeds 5-12 to avoid rematches or just conference battles until later rounds.  Or are seeds 5-12 mathematically locked in by formula?

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48 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

So we just continue our SEC schedule?  Fuck that, I'd like to play some other teams.  I wonder if the committee will get creative w seeds 5-12 to avoid rematches or just conference battles until later rounds.  Or are seeds 5-12 mathematically locked in by formula?

The top 4 seeds with the bye are conference champions right? Then they would all be in line to play each other if the chalk holds, and only one of them can be SEC. So that scenario has us as the SEC champion #1 seed in the semi finals while Georgia and Alabama score "upsets" over 2-4 seeds from other conferences. 

Edited by Hermanator
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56 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

So we just continue our SEC schedule?  Fuck that, I'd like to play some other teams.  I wonder if the committee will get creative w seeds 5-12 to avoid rematches or just conference battles until later rounds.  Or are seeds 5-12 mathematically locked in by formula?

Maybe this is the grind our aggy friends were warning us about? New territory for  us, we should listen to them. 

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1 hour ago, Hermanator said:

The top 4 seeds with the bye are conference champions right? Then they would all be in line to play each other if the chalk holds, and only one of them can be SEC. So that scenario has us as the SEC champion #1 seed in the semi finals while Georgia and Alabama score "upsets" over 2-4 seeds from other conferences. 

I'll admit ignorance here, but surely the P2 isn't still getting a fucking Bye for winning..  whatever that is.. right!?!? 

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Well, it's official this week. Again, most of the games I'll be primarily focused on is to watch a team lose, not just to watch good football. I'm a sick man who needs help. I've highlighted the team I want to win in my fuck em all year of football. I did bold the games that I think have legit CFP and conference championship implications. There are a good number of them and I feel this might be the weekend where upsets start to really pop up and I have underlined the games I think are ripe for that action.

 

Virginia Tech @ #7 Miami - 7:30 / 6:30 ESPN

Washington @ Rutgers - 8 / 7 Fox

Kentucky @ #6 Ole Miss - 12 / 11 ABC

#20 Oklahoma State @ #23 Kansas State - 12 / 11 ABC

#22 BYU @ Baylor - 12 / 11 

Arkansas @ #24 Texas A&M - 3:30 / 2:30 ESPN

#15 Louisville @ #16 Notre Dame - 3:30 / 2:30 Peacock (Jesus Chris, really?)

#21 Oklahoma @ Auburn - 3:30 / 2:30 ABC

UNC @ Duke - 4 / 3 ESPN2 

Mississippi State @ #Texas  4:15 / 3:15 SECN

#2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama - 7:30 / 6:30 ABC

#19 Illinois @ #9 Penn State - 7:30 / 6:30 NBC

Florida State @ SMU - 7:30 / 6:30 ACCN

Washington State @ #25 Boise State - 10 / 9 FS1

Arizona @ #10 Utah - 10:15 / 9:15 ESPN

#8 Oregon @ UCLA - 11 / 10 Fox

 

Edited by BurntEyes
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2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

If the Canes don't absolutely crush the Hokies then we'll know they are a fraud.

I fully agree, and I'm basing my potential upsets on teams that I'm not fully sold on for various reasons. I openly admit, it probably won't be the teams I selected by my football spidey sense says we past are due for a big upset weekend. If I was forced to pick, probably Penn State or Oklahoma are the two I think might be most prime. Of course, now that I've said it, the Fighting Illini and War Eagle are both getting curb stomped.

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4 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I'll admit ignorance here, but surely the P2 isn't still getting a fucking Bye for winning..  whatever that is.. right!?!? 

It's the 4 highest ranked conference champions get byes. 

So if Okie St or Utah or whoever wins the Big 12 and are 1 of the 4 highest ranked conference champions they'll get a bye. And if we win the SEC that means a Big 12 and ACC champion probably gets the likes of Georgia, Alabama, or Ole Miss in round 2

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7 hours ago, texifornia said:

 

This 12 team playoff is dumb. We win the SEC , then we play another SEC team in the quarterfinals and then play another SEC in the semifinal and then play another SEC team in the championship game. 

So we could be undefeated playing a 2 or 3 loss team for the championship. From the same fucking conference that we just fucking won!!! dumb

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27 minutes ago, Hermanator said:

It's the 4 highest ranked conference champions get byes. 

So if Okie St or Utah or whoever wins the Big 12 and are 1 of the 4 highest ranked conference champions they'll get a bye. And if we win the SEC that means a Big 12 and ACC champion probably gets the likes of Georgia, Alabama, or Ole Miss in round 2

I know amigo, in my next post I realized I went full regard and brain farted on the Big XII. That's all. No clue why it went completely out of my memory. 

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2 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

This 12 team playoff is dumb. We win the SEC , then we play another SEC team in the quarterfinals and then play another SEC in the semifinal and then play another SEC team in the championship game. 

So we could be undefeated playing a 2 or 3 loss team for the championship. From the same fucking conference that we just fucking won!!! dumb

There is not going to be a perfect solution. Smaller tournament = undefeated or otherwise "deserving" teams can be left out. Larger tournament = "undeserving" teams get to compete for the title. 12 is a compromise; any team not among the top 5 conference winners or top 7 at-large is unlikely to have a legitimate claim to be the champion. Conversely, one could think about it as our conference alignment is so good now that the potential champions largely get to face each other in exciting regular season games in pool play before the single-elimination phase. At least now the championships aren't mythical. This beats the heck out of our treatment in 2008.

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2 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

This 12 team playoff is dumb. We win the SEC , then we play another SEC team in the quarterfinals and then play another SEC in the semifinal and then play another SEC team in the championship game. 

So we could be undefeated playing a 2 or 3 loss team for the championship. From the same fucking conference that we just fucking won!!! dumb

That could happen, but it'll probably be like the NCAA tournament with a major upset or two each year and then the usual suspects playing for the championship.

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4 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

This 12 team playoff is dumb. We win the SEC , then we play another SEC team in the quarterfinals and then play another SEC in the semifinal and then play another SEC team in the championship game. 

So we could be undefeated playing a 2 or 3 loss team for the championship. From the same fucking conference that we just fucking won!!! dumb

In a world where conferences are too big to play round-robin schedules, what is your solution?

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6 hours ago, TrashMaster G said:

In a world where conferences are too big to play round-robin schedules, what is your solution?

No polls until Oct

No repeat games for conference championships. 

7 highest rated conference champions and 1 at large. You want to bitch about being left out, win your conference. It also might stop conferences from growing to the ungodly number they have now. Conferences should be regional anyway (8teams). I also always liked the Cinderella stories from basketball, small schools just might upset some teams. Strongest conference would get 2 in. 

Top 4 conference winners get home games

might not be perfect but it's my wish

 

 

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9 hours ago, Magus Ossis said:

At least now the championships aren't mythical.

Get back to me the first time a 3 loss team beats an undefeated in the championship game.

I loved that college football was unique in American sports in that the entire season mattered, not just a compressed postseason tournament with artificial stakes to make the owners espn more money

Edited by WBT
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1 hour ago, WBT said:

Get back to me the first time a 3 loss team beats an undefeated in the championship game.

I loved that college football was unique in American sports in that the entire season mattered, not just a compressed postseason tournament with artificial stakes to make the owners espn more money

Remember when we saw to SEC teams play again for the national championship? Remember a loss to Tech eliminated Texas. Remember TCU not getting a chance to play.

The old system was based on rankings of coaches and media with insane biases and people who sometimes didn't even watch the games.

That's a shitty ass system. You may love it for nostalgia sake, but it was broken and didn't work. That's what made it unique.

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1 hour ago, WBT said:

Get back to me the first time a 3 loss team beats an undefeated in the championship game.

I loved that college football was unique in American sports in that the entire season mattered, not just a compressed postseason tournament with artificial stakes to make the owners espn more money

I understand the argument. 

Let’s say Texas wins out all the way to the playoff final. UGA loses to Texas and Tennessee but gets in as an at large and wins to make the final. 

Texas is 15-0 with a win over UGA. UGA is 13-2 with a previous loss to Texas. Play the championship game or not?

Or Texas finishes 12-0 and UGA is second in the conference at 11-1. Play the championship game or not?

If an unbeaten team is set up to play a team with a loss in the national championship game, just cancel it? Or only cancel it if they’ve already played?

There are no perfect solutions.

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2 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

No repeat games for conference championships. 

 

You say this until it's 8-0 Georgia and 7-1 Texas and 7-1 Ole Miss or Missouri and according to your logic, Texas has to sit at home because it would be a rematch.

I'd be pissed about that. 

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You say this until it's 8-0 Georgia and 7-1 Texas and 7-1 Ole Miss or Missouri and according to your logic, Texas has to sit at home because it would be a rematch.

I'd be pissed about that. 

Then one of those 7-1 teams has a chance to be the at large 8th team in the playoffs. 

Win the conference games and then win the conference. Leaves out anything to be pissed about. 

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3 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

No polls until Oct

No repeat games for conference championships. 

7 highest rated conference champions and 1 at large. You want to bitch about being left out, win your conference. It also might stop conferences from growing to the ungodly number they have now. Conferences should be regional anyway (8teams). I also always liked the Cinderella stories from basketball, small schools just might upset some teams. Strongest conference would get 2 in. 

Top 4 conference winners get home games

might not be perfect but it's my wish

Ok, so we are talking some dream scenario, not something that works well with the conferences AS IS.

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59 minutes ago, nineliveslost said:

Then one of those 7-1 teams has a chance to be the at large 8th team in the playoffs. 

Win the conference games and then win the conference. Leaves out anything to be pissed about. 

If all conferences were equally strong, sure. The 7th best conference champion over an 11-1 SEC team is almost certainly going to be nonsensical. 

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17 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

If all conferences were equally strong, sure. The 7th best conference champion over an 11-1 SEC team is almost certainly going to be nonsensical. 

Especially if that loss were, for example, early season and close to a great team. Imagine a rolling ball of butcher knives being left out of the playoff so that Texas State could go as the conference champion #5 or #7? Is the sacredness of a conference championship so great that either 11-1 tOSU or 11-1 Bama should sit at home and watch Liberty play for all the marbles?

 

EDIT oh, and remember that meaningless game no one cared about in Ann Arbor. I mean, it didn't materially affect our path to the playoffs so why even play it? Probably no one even watched it. I bet no one tunes in for the game at Pyle field in November if we already have a CCG appearance clinched because the games don't mean anything in the era of the 12TCFP.

Edited by Magus Ossis
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33 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

If all conferences were equally strong, sure. The 7th best conference champion over an 11-1 SEC team is almost certainly going to be nonsensical. 

So you aren't looking forward to Alabama hosting Miami (OH) in the first round of the playoffs?

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6 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

No polls until Oct

No repeat games for conference championships. 

7 highest rated conference champions and 1 at large. You want to bitch about being left out, win your conference. It also might stop conferences from growing to the ungodly number they have now. Conferences should be regional anyway (8teams). I also always liked the Cinderella stories from basketball, small schools just might upset some teams. Strongest conference would get 2 in. 

Top 4 conference winners get home games

might not be perfect but it's my wish

 

 

My dream scenario is pretty close to this. 8 Team playoff. Now that we have 4 power conferences, winning teams of Conf. Championships get home games for the quarterfinals, losers go home (and cannot make the playoff). 3 At-larges, 1 G5 guaranteed at least the 8th spot. Effectively, it's a 12 team playoff because the conference championships are de-facto playoff games, but then they really, actually matter. Though teams that don't make the conference championships that get in may have the benefit of rest, they have to play an away game as a 'compromise'. As a bonus, the conference champion fans get an awesome experience and environment with an extra home game mega-matchup, which they don't have to travel for.

It may also be imperfect, but it means regular season matters (mostly), conference position and championships matter, and the best teams get a badass home game every year. 

 

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10 hours ago, nineliveslost said:

No polls until Oct

No repeat games for conference championships. 

7 highest rated conference champions and 1 at large. You want to bitch about being left out, win your conference. It also might stop conferences from growing to the ungodly number they have now. Conferences should be regional anyway (8teams). I also always liked the Cinderella stories from basketball, small schools just might upset some teams. Strongest conference would get 2 in. 

Top 4 conference winners get home games

might not be perfect but it's my wish

 

 

Genuine question - why do the polls matter?

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18 minutes ago, Ignatius said:

Genuine question - why do the polls matter?

Genuine Answer: they shouldn't. 

But a relatively easy fix... which will never happen, because clicks...

No preseason coaches or AP poll. First poll released for the first time after the 1st or second weekend of Oct.

That removes a shit ton of "FSU" and "ND" are great and the tons of bullshit speculation about this ranked team beat so and so...

Based on zero on field performances. Preseason polls is and has been the biggest piece of bullshit forever. It's also why blue bloods have always started the season, regardless of talent and ability, in a FAR, FAR better position than also rans.

But.... the old system was perfect and now it's going to shit. - some romantic bullshit notion based on revisionist history.

 

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On 9/24/2024 at 7:07 PM, nineliveslost said:

This 12 team playoff is dumb. We win the SEC , then we play another SEC team in the quarterfinals and then play another SEC in the semifinal and then play another SEC team in the championship game. 

So we could be undefeated playing a 2 or 3 loss team for the championship. From the same fucking conference that we just fucking won!!! dumb

Late to this but this isn't a problem with the 12 team playoff. It's a problem caused by consolidation into super conferences that for some reason lots of fans love because the corporate interests who make money off of it on their TVs tell them it's awesome. 

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Since most teams are a third of the way through their schedule, some trends to watch as we get into the meat of conference season

  • The likely winner of the 12 team playoff will come from the SEC. Texas, Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee all look the part so far this season. Ole Miss does too but need to see them play someone with a pulse in the SEC before adding them to the list. Mizzou is not a Top 10 team and are easily the odd man out in this scenario
  • The only non-SEC teams that as of today could crash that party are Ohio St and Miami. Ohio State has been living on easy street, but their 2nd half of the season is a bit more rugged with trips to Oregon and Penn St and the season ender against Michigan still to come. Miami should coast to the ACC championship unless Cam Ward goes down...is Clempson their only obstacle in the way to a 1st round bye?
  • As for the ACC and Big 12, one of these conferences may only get their champion in the playoff (and both leagues need to root hard for at least one more Notre Dame loss to avoid this scenario). The ACC is not a good league outside of Miami and perhaps Clemson. The Big 12 has more potential teams but way more parity. If Cam Rising comes back and stays healthy, Utah is probably the best team, but after that who knows. So far Iowa State and BYU look feisty, but everyone on this board knows that there isn't a lot that separates these teams and a whole lot of them will have 2-3 losses. League lacks P4 wins in non-conference (Iowa State and Ok State are the only teams to have one and only ISU's win in El Assico will stand the test of time) and that may be problematic going up against SEC and Big 10 powerhouses with much better resumes.

Will continue to watch these trendlines...

As for the games this week:

Georgia-Alabama - Georgia has the most difficult conference slate of all of the aforementioned championship contenders with roadies to Bama, Texas, and Ole Miss and a home game with Tennessee. So this feels like a bit of a must win for GA as they have to go 2-2 in these four games against the other SEC contenders to have a shot at the playoff. Concern about GA's ability to run the ball and offensive playmakers which is why I like Bama here.

Louisville-ND - If either team has playoff aspirations, this is a must win. Haven't seen much of Louisville but they did have a nice win over a solid GaTech team last week. Riley Leonard has been something of a disappointment for the Irish, particularly throwing the football and they have actually struggled with MAC teams at home this season. So I will not be surprised to see Louisville and former Techster Tyler Shough roll into Notre Dame Stadium and come out with a win, re-igniting the doubts about Marcus Freeman's ability to get the Irish to the level Brian Kelly had them. 

Illinois-Penn State - As mentioned above, sneaky good game as the Illini have their second consecutive roadie to open Big 10 play and a much taller order in Penn State. Illinois will hang with Penn State for a while, but the Penn State defense is still pretty good and Drew Allar is the best QB the Illini have seen so far...Penn State opens it up in the 2nd half and wins comfortably vaulting them potentially back in the discussion of being a real championship contender (despite the James Franklin coaching disadvantage). 

Ok State-K State - Elimination bowl for playoff possibilities as neither team had a super impressive non-conference win and both were effectively dominated by Utah schools last week. Ollie Gordon has entered the witness protection program and has not been seen this year and Alan Bowman is well, Alan Bowman. K-State wlll win and hope they can get to Farmageddon without another loss (which their schedule sets up as a possibility). 

Also, I would expect the Aggies to continue their domination of Arkansas in the imitation rivalry game happening during the State Fair of Texas though they will likely gump their way to victory as they seem to every year in this game. Also expect the Aggies to gump their way to at least 8 wins despite their glaring limitations because the only teams they play with a pulse the rest of the way come to Kroger field and their remaining roadies are Miss St, Auburn, and South Carolina. Rich of them to say we got favorable scheduling....

OU and Auburn...first one to 17 wins...

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I know, OU Sucks! ... but wouldn't wish injuries on them, and this is pretty bad.

Their top 5 WRs - Anderson/Farooq/Anthony/Gibson/Burks - were listed as Out on today's report.  

If truly out, wow ... 

****************************************************************************************************************

NORMAN – The second availability report for Oklahoma's first road trip of the 2024 season at Auburn has been officially released by the SEC on Thursday evening. 

  • On Wednesday, seven Sooners were ruled out of the contest against the Tigers - with three more joining that group in the Thursday update in wide receivers Deion Burks and Andrel Anthony along with running back Taylor Tatum

    Anthony and Tatum don't come as much of a surprise after their "doubtful" designation on Wednesday, but the loss of Burks is an inarguable big blow after his "questionable" listing initially. Without Burks, the Sooners will now be operating without their top five wideouts going into the preseason in Burks, Anthony, Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq and Jayden Gibson.

    An additional update will be provided on Friday evening at around 7 p.m. CT. A final pregame report will be published no later than 90 minutes before kickoff Saturday, which means final status designations for those players should be made public by 1 p.m. CT.

    According to the SEC's student-athlete availability reporting policy, "probable" means a player has a 75% or greater expectancy of playing; "questionable" means a player is uncertain or has a 50% chance of playing; "doubtful" means a player is unlikely to play or has a 25% chance of being available; while "out" means the player will not play that week due to either injury, illness, suspension, ineligibility or personal matter. Availability reports do not include information on injuries or other additional context surrounding a player's status. Teams are permitted to provide additional information at their own discretion via press release, social media post or coach's comment, so long as the information is consistent with the player's status on the availability report.

    Below is the full availability report for Oklahoma and for Auburn:

    Oklahoma availability report

    Player Position Status
    Jayden Gibson WR Out
    Jalil Farooq WR Out
    Nic Anderson WR Out
    Gentry Williams DB Out
    Kendel Dolby DB Out
    Geirean Hatchett OL Out
    Tyler Keltner K Out
    Andrel Anthony WR Out
    Taylor Tatum RB Out
    Dasan McCullough LB Questionable
    Deion Burks WR Out
    Jake Taylor OL Probable

     

    Auburn availability report

    Player Position Status
    Tyler Scott DB Out
    Champ Anthony DB Out
    Brandon Frazier TE Out
    Isaiah Raikes DL Probable
    Alex McPherson K Probable
    Izavion Miller OL Probable

 

 

 

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