Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I think that is a strategy to contemplate. I know Bill Ackman expresses a similar sentiment. I think the important elements to understand are when it's a good time to get in, and what's the plan to get out. 

I’ll probably hold on to a lot of my BTC for a while. 
 

As for the gbtc and the crypto proxies in my 401k, I plan on selling those sometime before end of 2021. That’s roughly when this cycle will end. 
 

32 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

I have a Roth IRA in Bitcoin that’s obviously doing very well. The more I read, the closer I am to throwing more at it. I picked up some RIOT that’s up 46% in like a freaking week, and I almost grabbed MARA at 9.81. Kicking myself for not doing that one.

I like GBTC a lot and may move some of my 401k to it if we see a bit of a pullback between now and Christmas. Only thing that worries me about it is that it trades at a premium and if a crypto etf gets approved, then it’ll likely tank by the premium amount, but at this point it won’t even matter. lol

Long term though, Bitcoin is only going to add more and more institutional investors that will create a much stronger floor than bitcoin’s ever had before. If other CEO’s follow MSI’s strategy, then the thing is going to sky rocket. 

Yeah I just don’t see how BTC doesn’t trade substantially higher this year. Too much big money and strong hands coming in. As the price goes up more will come in. It’s reflexive. 
 

As far as these other proxies go, I plan on holding them as long as their price roughly follows the underlying price of BTC. I own Mara, Riot, Mstr, and Si. The first two have basically been call options or 3x etfs. Up bigly on them, but I think they keep going. Gonna ride the winners. 

[Burt Macklin 19038]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

I’ll probably hold on to a lot of my BTC for a while. 
 

As for the gbtc and the crypto proxies in my 401k, I plan on selling those sometime before end of 2021. That’s roughly when this cycle will end. 
 

Yeah I just don’t see how BTC doesn’t trade substantially higher this year. Too much big money and strong hands coming in. As the price goes up more will come in. It’s reflexive. 
 

As far as these other proxies go, I plan on holding them as long as their price roughly follows the underlying price of BTC. I own Mara, Riot, Mstr, and Si. The first two have basically been call options or 3x etfs. Up bigly on them, but I think they keep going. Gonna ride the winners. 

Yeah, I’ve also been looking into some up and coming mining companies. I don’t like RIOT’s financials or leadership, so I’m going to be on the quicker side to drop that one. MARA seems like the more solid play of the two IMO. I’m trying to find even a semi-reasonable entry point for them.
 

I think the highest returns from Bitcoin in 2021 will be off miners who can gain significant market share. 

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

Yeah, I’ve also been looking into some up and coming mining companies. I don’t like RIOT’s financials or leadership, so I’m going to be on the quicker side to drop that one. MARA seems like the more solid play of the two IMO. I’m trying to find even a semi-reasonable entry point for them.
 

I think the highest returns from Bitcoin in 2021 will be off miners who can gain significant market share. 

Honestly I will drop either Mara or Riot pretty quickly if they start acting up.
 

I don’t remember Riot’s number but Mara’s breakeven price on BTC is ~$3800 so this Bull run will all go to profits for them. I do know that both companies are waiting on Bitmain to complete their orders for more ASIC miners. Most of their hashrate is going to come online this spring and summer.  

[GRHorn 105]

Tagged 25k on the button on Coinbase. Moar please 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

Crazy how Bitcoin passed north of 20k for the first time last Wednesday? And now 9-10 days later we went past 25k.

[Tailgate 3022]

Ya, I’m in MARA and RIOT and keep adding to my BTC Coinbase account. I believe this currency is going to continue to rise for a long time.

[Party_Taco 3762]

Feels like 2018 right now but with better underlying fundamentals... gonna be a wild ride!

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Crazy how Bitcoin passed north of 20k for the first time last Wednesday? And now 9-10 days later we went past 25k.

I can’t remember if I posted about this here or on another forum, but I looked back at the price action the last cycle after the all time high was breached.
 

The price doubled in a month. Then it dumped and went sideways for a couple months. Then it doubled in another month. Then it dumped, went sideways for a couple months. Then then the blowoff move happened over a couple months. 
 

So the whole thing went psycho over 8 months. Now, I’m curious to see how the involvement of big money and theoretically stronger hands will affect the cycle. 
 

Back to my original point though. Last time It doubled in a month after breaking the previous high. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I can’t remember if I posted about this here or on another forum, but I looked back at the price action the last cycle after the all time high was breached.
 

The price doubled in a month. Then it dumped and went sideways for a couple months. Then it doubled in another month. Then it dumped, went sideways for a couple months. Then then the blowoff move happened over a couple months. 
 

So the whole thing went psycho over 8 months. Now, I’m curious to see how the involvement of big money and theoretically stronger hands will affect the cycle. 
 

Back to my original point though. Last time It doubled in a month after breaking the previous high. 

 I wouldn’t be shocked if we see 50k within a month or two.  Or 15.  However I don’t see how the bottom could drop out of it this cycle, at this point especially with so much infusion of institutional money that shouldn’t run away on the first sign of a drop. The only exception would be if there is a complete global economic collapse even though some btc experts think that would help btc.  The btc drop in March tells me there is a correlation between the stock markets and Bitcoin, to some extent.

I am still buying at this point but am I cautious in that I’ve greatly surpassed my 2020 goal of 5% of my net worth in crypto.  The 5% is pretty far back in the rear view mirror now.

[GRHorn 105]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 I wouldn’t be shocked if we see 50k within a month or two.  Or 15.  However I don’t see how the bottom could drop out of it this cycle, at this point especially with so much infusion of institutional money that shouldn’t run away on the first sign of a drop. The only exception would be if there is a complete global economic collapse even though some btc experts think that would help btc.  The btc drop in March tells me there is a correlation between the stock markets and Bitcoin, to some extent.

I am still buying at this point but am I cautious in that I’ve greatly surpassed my 2020 goal of 5% of my net worth in crypto.  The 5% is pretty far back in the rear view mirror now.

You and I pretty much dominate this thread so I think you obviously believe it’s a huge opportunity. Against that backdrop, 5% seems a bit conservative. Looks like you agree, even if it wasn’t intentional. We’re gonna make a lot of money. 🤝

[GRHorn 105]

On 3/12/2020 at 6:58 PM, XYZ said:

It’s not an asset. It’s literally nothing.

Imagine caring enough about crypto to troll the surly thread and getting it completely wrong and missing out on a massive opportunity. Most people that are missing out are just uninformed or agnostic towards it. Womp womp. 

[bluto 4942]

Ummmm 26.5k


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bluto 4942]

Ummmm 26.5k


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sorry 27.5k

[Party_Taco 3762]

Shit is insane...

Was sitting next to a BTC millionaire buddy at the poker table tonight (initial buy at $8, all in at $1200) and he’s bullish to $35k this round.

Amazingly he thinks it will recede to $12k before a massive bounce back, but I don’t think it will fall below $18k if it does at all. Still, he’s the one in the SLR so wtf do I know...

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

And 28.3 was just hit.

another big number to report is that btc passed .5 trillion in market cap overnight. If Sunday even remains flat, the business news on Monday should be fun to watch/read.

[Dbeasy 15083]

Can someone point me to the post, or a resource, that explains credibly why this is a viable asset for the long-term? I understand that it provides value today, namely the ability to move wealth around without having to use the trackable banking systems, which is great for criminals.

And I understand that we all want an asset that can’t be inflated away by irresponsible governments. But at its core it’s a fiat currency like all of the others and one step by the government can essentially either wipe it out or make it no longer a useable asset. What am I missing?

[nycHorn 3038]

I wouldn’t be mad if ETH ramped up to all time highs as well.

[GRHorn 105]

57 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Can someone point me to the post, or a resource, that explains credibly why this is a viable asset for the long-term? I understand that it provides value today, namely the ability to move wealth around without having to use the trackable banking systems, which is great for criminals.

And I understand that we all want an asset that can’t be inflated away by irresponsible governments. But at its core it’s a fiat currency like all of the others and one step by the government can essentially either wipe it out or make it no longer a useable asset. What am I missing?

Here’s a couple links from Fidelity. 
 

https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/articles/aspirational-store-of-value

https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/articles/bitcoin-as-alternative-investment
 

[RexWilson 1348]

48 minutes ago, nycHorn said:

I wouldn’t be mad if ETH ramped up to all time highs as well.

My hope as well

[Dbeasy 15083]

Is anyone familiar with DOCK and have any thoughts on it? I signed up for an account with it at the very beginning because I was intrigued (and confused) by its mission. I can't really understand what's going on with it, or whether I even had earned any tokens along the way.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Can someone point me to the post, or a resource, that explains credibly why this is a viable asset for the long-term? I understand that it provides value today, namely the ability to move wealth around without having to use the trackable banking systems, which is great for criminals.

And I understand that we all want an asset that can’t be inflated away by irresponsible governments. But at its core it’s a fiat currency like all of the others and one step by the government can essentially either wipe it out or make it no longer a useable asset. What am I missing?

I don't know what the future brings for bitcoin but I recognize that more and more people are believing in it. And what exactly each believe varies widely.

One of the more attractive aspects of bitcoin is its forced scarcity and consistent production decreases. By design there will be 21 million full bitcoins created by 2140.  We're at 18.5 million now. About every 4 years, the number of coins produced drops in half. Unlike gold's value/production relationship in that as the gold price increases, gold production increases, that cannot happen with bitcoin. If bitcoin jumped to $1m each today, the same number of bitcoins would be created today as yesterday.

If more and more people start to believe in bitcoin (philosophical reasons, greed, curiosity, etc.), and there is a fixed supply, the price has no where to go but up.  Can that create bubbles that will periodic break? Yep, it's a risk with it. I wouldn't put rent or mortgage payments into bitcoin today. 

 

 

 

[Dbeasy 15083]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Here’s a couple links from Fidelity. 
 

https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/articles/aspirational-store-of-value

https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/articles/bitcoin-as-alternative-investment
 

So reading these articles was very helpful, and caused a bit of a lightbulb to go off in my head.  For the last several years, and particularly this year, I've been ranting about the conduct of our government regarding monetary policy.  This year was the "straw that broke the camel's back", when I saw global governments take unprecedented interference in capital markets, by propping up stocks and bonds.  The 2007 crisis was the first indication of this interference when the government saved GM, AIG, etc. I guess I didn't realize at the time that governments would cross red lines of intervention.

These interventions strike at the very heart of the value of currencies, making them far less trustworthy.  Without trust, a currency cannot be successful. These articles helped me realize that Bitcoin is not about transferring wealth outside of government control, it's about a more trustworthy fiat currency. 

The risk that still remains is that governments will ultimately see Bitcoin as a serious threat and will try to find ways to undermine it.  It's already begun with the congress bill to identify holders of bitcoin.  However, sometimes governments can't control something new.  Maybe this will be something that just can't be controlled, and if it can't, then perhaps bitcoin becomes the world reserve currency that the world can truly trust.

[GRHorn 105]

27 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

So reading these articles was very helpful, and caused a bit of a lightbulb to go off in my head.  For the last several years, and particularly this year, I've been ranting about the conduct of our government regarding monetary policy.  This year was the "straw that broke the camel's back", when I saw global governments take unprecedented interference in capital markets, by propping up stocks and bonds.  The 2007 crisis was the first indication of this interference when the government saved GM, AIG, etc. I guess I didn't realize at the time that governments would cross red lines of intervention.

These interventions strike at the very heart of the value of currencies, making them far less trustworthy.  Without trust, a currency cannot be successful. These articles helped me realize that Bitcoin is not about transferring wealth outside of government control, it's about a more trustworthy fiat currency. 

The risk that still remains is that governments will ultimately see Bitcoin as a serious threat and will try to find ways to undermine it.  It's already begun with the congress bill to identify holders of bitcoin.  However, sometimes governments can't control something new.  Maybe this will be something that just can't be controlled, and if it can't, then perhaps bitcoin becomes the world reserve currency that the world can truly trust.

Welcome aboard. There’s a massive catalog of literature online about bitcoin if you’re interested in digging deeper. Also podcasts and YouTube videos. This guy has a pretty extensive series of podcasts as an intro. You can pick and choose what you want to check out. 

https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/the-beginners-guide-to-bitcoin

Re government intervention, the optimistic take is that as more and more people with money and influence become enriched by holding BTC, the less likely extreme regulation or “banning” will be. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

24 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The risk that still remains is that governments will ultimately see Bitcoin as a serious threat and will try to find ways to undermine it.  It's already begun with the congress bill to identify holders of bitcoin.  However, sometimes governments can't control something new.  Maybe this will be something that just can't be controlled, and if it can't, then perhaps bitcoin becomes the world reserve currency that the world can truly trust.

Governments will definitely not like cryptocurrency as it undermines one of their controls on the public. My main worry is if the US, China or EU govts declared it illegal to convert govt currency to bitcoin. Making something illegal doesn't necessary stop it, but this would create a difficulty for bitcoin holders and would definitely scare institutions away.  BTC price would plummet.

If the govt required disclosure of wallet info, I wouldn't like it but I doubt I would hide balances from them. But I think there would be legitimate challenges to a requirement like this. It would be akin to the govt requiring people to disclose the amount of cash they have on hand, or inventory the value of other non-banked assets (e.g. art, jewelry.) But to be clear, transactions and wallets have the potential to be traced to an individual even though the blockchain doesn't have your name on it.

In my view, the more the govt is able to identify Americans that are conducting large transactions, the less likely they would seek the nuclear option that I initially noted above.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

I’ve been watching some YouTube videos on programs that run in the background on your PC and mine for whatever is most profitable at that moment. It is then converted into Bitcoin then deposited into your wallet (I think). Anybody ever tried it?
 

Seems like you might make a few bucks over time and probably spend that much in electricity. It’s not about getting rich as it is just something interesting to do. Would love to hear some mining stories if anybody has them.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

4 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I’ve been watching some YouTube videos on programs that run in the background on your PC and mine for whatever is most profitable at that moment. It is then converted into Bitcoin then deposited into your wallet (I think). Anybody ever tried it?
 

Seems like you might make a few bucks over time and probably spend that much in electricity. It’s not about getting rich as it is just something interesting to do. Would love to hear some mining stories if anybody has them.

There are several ways to earn free crypto. I'm not a fan of putting an app on my PC that I need for work/home but I don't have knowledge that it's bad for it. You're describing a CPU miner and those usually pay very little. Maybe a few pennies per week. But as you said, it might get you interested in the subject.  

You can also earn bitcoin rewards by shopping. See the Fold iOS app or Lolli Chrome add-in.  Lolli normally has deals with web stores to give you up to 10% back in bitcoin.  Fold has a daily prize where you normally get 100 satoshis which is like 2-3 cents worth of bitcoin.  One caution is that some of the reward sites may not allow you to withdrawal until you reach a certain amount and you have to get past the shop return time frame. I think I earned about $10 in bitcoin from Lolli when I bought some Allen Edmond shoes last year. That is now worth about $30. Maybe in another year, those shoes will have been free.

Coinbase will give you free coins ($.25 - $10 worth) if you are willing to watch some educational/marketing videos about certain coins.  Or at least they used to do that.

 

[gyroprotagonist 2594]

so if yall want to see what the peak of BTC is, I could always buy in and watch it bottom out for 2 years like i did last time.  Seriously, I timed that shit (un)perfectly to buy a couple thousand worth of BTC at the peak.  I checked out my Coinbase account several weeks back and was surprised to see the resurgence and am above water at this point.

 

[Blotto 23568]

The only crypto I bought this year was XRP. Got in at .30 and it promptly shot up to .60+. Then all this lawsuit noise and it shit the bed. Managed to get out at .26, so not a disaster, but indicative of how fast this shit changes. Dont really pay as much attention to shit as I should. Was at .60 one day, and I check back a week later and its below where I bought in, lulz.  Now I'm just back to my BTC and ETH that I bought in the fall of 2017. 

[GRHorn 105]

4 minutes ago, Blotto said:

The only crypto I bought this year was XRP. Got in at .30 and it promptly shot up to .60+. Then all this lawsuit noise and it shit the bed. Managed to get out at .26, so not a disaster, but indicative of how fast this shit changes. Dont really pay as much attention to shit as I should. Was at .60 one day, and I check back a week later and its below where I bought in, lulz.  Now I'm just back to my BTC and ETH that I bought in the fall of 2017. 

XRP has always been trash. 
 

In other news, 

 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

Any news of a BTC ETF? GBTC was over a 30% premium last week and now down to a low of 6% this morning. 

[GRHorn 105]

50 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Any news of a BTC ETF? GBTC was over a 30% premium last week and now down to a low of 6% this morning. 

The outgoing SEC chairman Jay Clayton was seen as the main impediment to that happening. I think people assume his replacement will be open to an ETF. 

[GRHorn 105]

New high of 28.5 overnight. 30 soon imo. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

From listening to an October podcast with tyler and Cameron winklevoss, I realized that while I knew a few companies have placed some of their treasury balance in Bitcoin, I hadn’t given any thought if/when a country might do the same with their foreign currency reserves.  Pure speculation but imagine if a oil-rich middle eastern country decides to just place a small percentage of their wealth into Bitcoin. Scenarios like this would lead to most individuals never being able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.

 

 

Edited December 30, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Burt Macklin 19038]

On 12/22/2020 at 3:44 PM, GRHorn said:

I’ll probably hold on to a lot of my BTC for a while. 
 

As for the gbtc and the crypto proxies in my 401k, I plan on selling those sometime before end of 2021. That’s roughly when this cycle will end. 
 

Yeah I just don’t see how BTC doesn’t trade substantially higher this year. Too much big money and strong hands coming in. As the price goes up more will come in. It’s reflexive. 
 

As far as these other proxies go, I plan on holding them as long as their price roughly follows the underlying price of BTC. I own Mara, Riot, Mstr, and Si. The first two have basically been call options or 3x etfs. Up bigly on them, but I think they keep going. Gonna ride the winners. 

 

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

From listening to an October podcast with tyler and Cameron winklevoss, I realized that while I knew a few companies have placed some of their treasury balance in Bitcoin, I hadn’t given any thought if/when a country might do the same with their foreign currency reserves.  Pure speculation but imagine if a oil-rich middle eastern country decides to just place a small percentage of their wealth into Bitcoin. Scenarios like this would lead to most individuals never being able to afford 1 full Bitcoin.

 

 

Do y’all use any sort of trailing stop loss for your BTC? I was thinking about putting in something that isn’t likely to execute on a normal pull haven. like 25%, just to lock in gains if it does make a hard correction at some point in the next year. I’m still monitoring it fairly closely so I can always cancel if I think it will level, but I’m thinking it may help me not feel the need to check it as often. 

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 

Do y’all use any sort of trailing stop loss for your BTC? I was thinking about putting in something that isn’t likely to execute on a normal pull haven. like 25%, just to lock in gains if it does make a hard correction at some point in the next year. I’m still monitoring it fairly closely so I can always cancel if I think it will level, but I’m thinking it may help me not feel the need to check it as often. 

I don’t, but I’m pretty committed. Having looked at the cycles in the past you can expect to dip 30% at some point. If you stop out then, you’re going to wish you had never sold as it rips again and does multiples higher.
 

That said, there is an investing axiom that if you’re overly anxious and babysitting a position then you should consider downsizing it. That might be your best answer. Just cut it down a little bit and let it ride. 
 

I babysit and check it multiple times a day because I have a shit ton riding on it, but I’m embracing the ride this year. 

[Burt Macklin 19038]

4 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I don’t, but I’m pretty committed. Having looked at the cycles in the past you can expect to dip 30% at some point. If you stop out then, you’re going to wish you had never sold as it rips again and does multiples higher.
 

That said, there is an investing axiom that if you’re overly anxious and babysitting a position then you should consider downsizing it. That might be your best answer. Just cut it down a little bit and let it ride. 
 

I babysit and check it multiple times a day because I have a shit ton riding on it, but I’m embracing the ride this year. 

Yeah, I’m not going to downsize so I should probably just quit being a pussy. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

I worry that if I put in an order to protect against a large drop, I might run into a flash crash that triggers the sale, but then Bitcoin almost immediately recovers.

honesty I’m ok if we see a large drop as I still want to acquire more. This causes mixed feelings as the price keeps increasing. My target hold quantity is within reach and part of me is considered a large buy so I can sit back.

[Tailgate 3022]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I worry that if I put in an order to protect against a large drop, I might run into a flash crash that triggers the sale, but then Bitcoin almost immediately recovers.

honesty I’m ok if we see a large drop as I still want to acquire more. This causes mixed feelings as the price keeps increasing. My target hold quantity is within reach and part of me is considered a large buy so I can sit back.

I’m similar. Have some in now and added more today...but will likely put a bigger order in early January.

This is not something you time...it’s one of those you believe it could go to the moon or you don’t. I believe. And 95% of my investments are long positions...and this one fits all my criteria.

So, like your comment...I’ll jump in enough to reach my target...before the middle of January. I’m fine with any dips as well.

 

[closetohumping 17456]

Is this the moment where guys that sold two years ago come back and tell you “oh no I didn’t actually sell”

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

Over 30 on Coinbase pro.  Wasn’t 20 surpassed around Dec 15th?

[GRHorn 105]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

And then 31 less than 90 minutes later.  At this rate (checks calculator), I’m retiring next Wednesday at 10:44am.

I guess we’re getting to a point that announcing each 1k milestone isn’t necessary.

[Tailgate 3022]

BTC not resting this weekend. 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2738]

Yup.
I’m up on ETH. What’s the prevailing thought of long term value on it?

[nycHorn 3038]

Yup.
I’m up on ETH. What’s the prevailing thought of long term value on it?

I would love to see some institutional investors drop some cash into ETH.

As to your question, I have no idea.

[nycHorn 3038]

Tapacrap

[Nice Guy Eddie 13521]

There is a problem in the crypto community that different factions fight against each other as they think only one coin will emerge at the end. “There can only be one!” There’s nothing wrong with thinking that btc, eth and others can thrive together as they have different use cases.

I bet we see 900+ ETH within a month or two. Some profit taking will occur with btc, and enough people may pivot to eth to push it higher.

[woohorn 1131]

[ajax 2620]

Let's hope that once ETH breaks through that 790 ceiling it goes apeshit

[nycHorn 3038]