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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I may try and figure out some short to medium term hedges as this seems a bit excessive. I'm old enough to remember the great crash of 2018 when ETH lost 90+%. Anybody here figured out a decent hedging strategy they want to share?

I know just enough to be dangerous, so take anything I say with due skepticism and DYODD.

From what I understand, ETH devs are doing tests and have made comments indicating that they think they might be ready to transition ETH to ETH2 as early as December this year.  I've read a lot of chatter that ETH2 is likely to surpass BTC in market cap around that time.  I read a prediction of ETH >10K by end of year just the other day.  I staked my ETH in expectation that ETH->ETH2 will happen by mid 2022 or so.  I don't know about short term ups and downs, but I expect ETH/ETH2 to triple from where it's at within a year or so.

Was the great crash due to the DAO/fork/ETHvETC business?  I think that is likely to be a one time event never to be repeated.  Mistakes made, lessons learned, too much at stake now...

Edited by bernorange
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closetohumping 17,458

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45 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I know just enough to be dangerous, so take anything I say with due skepticism and DYODD.

From what I understand, ETH devs are doing tests and have made comments indicating that they think they might be ready to transition ETH to ETH2 as early as December this year.  I've read a lot of chatter that ETH2 is likely to surpass BTC in market cap around that time.  I read a prediction of ETH >10K by end of year just the other day.  I staked my ETH in expectation that ETH->ETH2 will happen by mid 2022 or so.  I don't know about short term ups and downs, but I expect ETH/ETH2 to triple from where it's at within a year or so.

Was the great crash due to the DAO/fork/ETHvETC business?  I think that is likely to be a one time event never to be repeated.  Mistakes made, lessons learned, too much at stake now...

Does this mean we have to move our eth to eth2 or is it going to be done for us?  So confusing.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,522

Posted
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For anyone with a sizable gain of any coin, spend a few minutes coming up with a sales strategy. It doesn't have to be complex and you can always change your mind. Like "when ETH hits 5K, I'm selling X to get my original investment back in USD."  Or when BTC hits 80K, I'm selling 1/8 of my bitcoin." Or whatever. 

I experience the same like many of you and I sometimes worry more about future lost gains than I do about money in my pocket. I have a BTC exit plan and I've committed to myself to create one for Eth next. 

I would advise to never sell 100% of a coin unless you're convinced it's going to 0. Even keeping 10% can be profitable.

1 minute ago, bernorange said:

ETH->ETH2 should happen for all ETH when the network transitions as I understand it.  You won't need to do anything.

This is what I think as well. From time to time, coins have a hard fork that require some work IF you keep the coin in your own wallet. If the coin is on an exchange, you should see info from them stating they will take care of everything. After all, keeping coins on an exchange is really just an IOU to you.  But to be clear, I haven't heard how the ETH2 transition will occur.  I imagine there will be a lot of info about it.

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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On 5/8/2021 at 1:50 PM, bernorange said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-07/vaneck-fires-starting-gun-in-race-for-first-u-s-ether-etf

If TPTB ever relent and approve some crypto ETFs here in the USA, it's going to add more rocket fuel to the system.

Looks like Bloomberg is beating the drum for this...

Quote

For years the Bitcoin industry has been hoping the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would approve an ETF, which would theoretically allow an easy onramp for a lot more money to flow into the coin. So far though, applicants have been disappointed, despite approvals for similar products in other countries. But with institutional adoption on the rise, could 2021 finally be the year? Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas says he’s more optimistic than he’s ever been. In this Q&A he explains why, and breaks down the landscape.

Joe Weisenthal:
So Eric. A Bitcoin ETF is something the community has hoped to see for a long time now. And nobody knows ETFs as well as you. It really feels like the entire industry has been monitoring your work for clues or signs about whether it’s coming. How has that focus been from your perspective?

Eric Balchunas:
It is one of those things that no one really knows, unless you are inside the SEC. But we have been pretty obsessed with this story since the Winklevoss Twins filed for the first one in 2013, so we have been trying to give our takes in real-time and track every little stage. And I will say it does feel like there’s been a shift this year. We are more optimistic of an approval than we’ve ever been.

Joe:
What’s changed your thinking? Why does it feel like 2021 is different than, say, 2017 or 2018, the last time there was a lot of hype?

Eric:
First is the institutional adoption of crypto is much greater, the money centers are getting involved. Second, you have the intense growth of ‘default’ crypto products like GBTC which are not ideal for retail investors and the SEC knows this. Finally, there’s been a torrent of launches up in Canada which have worked fine and seen a lot of action. Canada has a history of being like six months to a year ahead of the U.S. Last but not least, [Gary] Gensler coming in as chair. He gets crypto, taught classes at MIT on it, albeit he does have some concerns.

Joe:
Speaking of Canada, you’ve posted a lot about what a smashing success those initial launches have been. Can you give some perspective on how much demand there is for those products?

Eric:
Some of the stats are insane. First off, Canada crypto ETFs already have $2.3 billion in assets in three months. And Canada’s market is 1/27th the size of the U.S. so that would be like $60 billion here! Also, they have taken over the most traded leaderboard up in Canada. There are typically three to four crypto ETFs in the Top 20. Finally, the Ether ETFs that were launched recently have actually seen volume grow (rare for new ETF launch) indicating wide interest. ...

More:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-11/will-we-have-a-bitcoin-etf-this-year

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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TPTB don't want to give crypto any wings...

Quote

...
Freshly sworn-in Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler told Congress that the cryptocurrency market “could benefit from greater investor protection,” signaling that a long-stated prerequisite for SEC oversight of the industry has not been met. He also urged lawmakers give the agency regulatory authority over trading venues, a stance he reiterated in a CNBC interview Friday.

Gensler’s comments were likely an unwelcome reality check for crypto and ETF enthusiasts alike. Bitcoin ETF approval was being touted by many industry boosters as a nearly sure-thing in 2021, amid new SEC leadership, Wall Street’s growing crypto embrace and the launch of similar funds in Canada. However, Gensler’s skeptical remarks and a hefty regulatory to-do list has some experts pushing out the potential time line.

“The SEC has made their priorities clear, and vetting crypto ETFs is not one of them,” said Ben Johnson, Morningstar Inc.’s global director of ETF research. “Given that the SEC has bigger fish to fry, and taking Gensler’s recent remarks regarding crypto ETFs into account, I think the odds we’ll see a Bitcoin ETF approved in 2021 are very low.”
...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-10/bitcoin-etf-approval-odds-grow-longer-after-gensler-critique

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15,085

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I have a strange question.  I've been trying to setup spreadsheets to track all of my transactions for tax reporting purposes later this year. I can't get the math to work for one scenario. I bought a small amount of ETH on Coinbase (~$150) in order to buy the KOL NFT token.  That required sending the ETH to a metamask wallet. When I look at the number of ETH sent, and the transaction cost by looking at Etherscan, Metamask and Coinbase, the numbers don't match. I sent fewer ETH to Metamask but received more than I sent. How is that possible?

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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Posted
48 minutes ago, bernorange said:

It really looks to me like he's throwing a tantrum because Doge didn't go to the moon following his SNL performance.

I know you like a good conspiracy. I think it’s clear he got a tap on the shoulder and was told to cut off this Bitcoin nonsense. His critique in a few ways doesn’t make sense. Bitcoin cost/transaction? That’s not a way that anybody that really follows Bitcoin thinks about it because it doesn’t make any sense. Also, they hate it so much, but they’re not going to sell it? And he’s worried about increased coal burned for mining Bitcoin? Then what is this?

Tesla depends on a lot of government subsidization. He was told to get in line. Prove me wrong. 

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Assman

Assman 1,830

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So there I was scrolling through Twitter when I see an Onion article about Bitcoin crashing.  I think "WTF", immediately open CBP, and watch it drop from 52K to 46K in less than 10 minutes.  I bought once I saw a minute straight of gain.  Thanks internet satire news!

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

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Unless I'm mistaken Elon can manipulate the fuck out of the crypto and there's zero repercussions.  I'm not sure why he wouldn't help his friends pocket a few hundred million with this type of BS.  

My previous prediction was 100k then we get stuck.  Now I'm fairly confident it's not going over 70k for at least 2021 and 100k is back to being a pipedream. 

 

 

So 100k next week people...

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Blotto

Blotto 23,568

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Posted

Lulz.

9 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Unless I'm mistaken Elon can manipulate the fuck out of the crypto and there's zero repercussions.  I'm not sure why he wouldn't help his friends pocket a few hundred million with this type of BS.  

 

He has manipulated the fuck out of the price of TSLA and faced no serious repurcussions, so I'm not sure why people would expect him to act any differently about assets in a largely unregulated market.

The cult of Elon is a strange phenomenon. If he could figure out a way to bottle his farts and integrate that with the climate control system, he could probably double the ASP of Tesla cars. I dig the work that SpaceX is doing, but Musk is kind of a clownshow and largely full of shit.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,522

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I wouldn't get so fired up about Elon's tweets. But obviously his comments create volatility.

  • He's right that Bitcoin is not the greenest tech out there. I know this is debatable.
  • He's now not accepting bitcoin for Teslas. We have no idea how many people actually bought Teslas with bitcoin. Most people sitting on bitcoin don't want to spend it. And if they did, it's not a big deal to swap it.
  • Tesla is still holding onto their bitcoin in their treasury
  • He said he wants to accept cryptos that are greener. Eth is on its way and so are others. Maybe Elon might actually drive bitcoin developers to proof of stake. it would most like split bitcoin as maximalists want it to remain as-is.
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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

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26 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Lulz.

He has manipulated the fuck out of the price of TSLA and faced no serious repurcussions, so I'm not sure why people would expect him to act any differently about assets in a largely unregulated market.

The cult of Elon is a strange phenomenon. If he could figure out a way to bottle his farts and integrate that with the climate control system, he could probably double the ASP of Tesla cars. I dig the work that SpaceX is doing, but Musk is kind of a clownshow and largely full of shit.

Yeah but he’s not nearly as brazen w TSLA tweets as he is with crypto - obviously.  Whether he knows it or not he’s doing more to delegitimize crypto than anything else...

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Blotto

Blotto 23,568

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yeah but he’s not nearly as brazen w TSLA tweets as he is with crypto - obviously.  Whether he knows it or not he’s doing more to delegitimize crypto than anything else...

Tweeting that he had funding secured to take Tesla private at $420/share when he actually had no such plans is pretty fucking brazen.

Quote

The central concern for the SEC is that Musk made it seem like he already had the money lined up and the price confirmed, with a shareholder vote being the only thing standing between him and privatizing Tesla. His tweet “set off a trading frenzy,” according to the complaint, and pushed Tesla’s stock price up more than 6 percent, forcing Nasdaq to halt Tesla trading for 90 minutes until the company gave an official response. The company’s stock price closed at $379.57 on the day of the tweet.

In reality, almost nothing was underway at that point, few company officials were even aware of the prospect, no funders were secured, and prices weren’t settled. “Musk’s statements were premised on a long series of baseless assumptions and were contrary to facts that Musk knew,” according to the SEC.

 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Tweeting that he had funding secured to take Tesla private at $420/share when he actually had no such plans is pretty fucking brazen.

 

Yes no shit - he’s been quiet since the SEC starting digging.  But only quiet w TSLA tweets...that’s my entire point, buddy.  

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I wouldn't get so fired up about Elon's tweets. But obviously his comments create volatility.

  • He's right that Bitcoin is not the greenest tech out there. I know this is debatable.
  • He's now not accepting bitcoin for Teslas. We have no idea how many people actually bought Teslas with bitcoin. Most people sitting on bitcoin don't want to spend it. And if they did, it's not a big deal to swap it.
  • Tesla is still holding onto their bitcoin in their treasury
  • He said he wants to accept cryptos that are greener. Eth is on its way and so are others. Maybe Elon might actually drive bitcoin developers to proof of stake. it would most like split bitcoin as maximalists want it to remain as-is.

I don’t see a major split in the Bitcoin community. Any people that are interested in PoS are already working with other coins. Since we’re talking, PoS is deficient because it’s actually quite similar to the financial system we have now. The largest stakeholders benefit directly with each block. Power and wealth centralizes from that point.
 

With PoW systems the miners have to actually expend resources to earn newly distributed coins. It’s a fairer and obviously more decentralized system. 
 

With Ethereum specifically, they had a large premine when they started. The early holders still have a lot of coins they were gifted and they will have an outsized effect on consensus in PoS system. 
 

Also with Ethereum you are pretty dependent on Vitalik. Here’s something he pulled yesterday. Rugged a lot of token holders. Evidently going to donate to charity? I would say there’s better ways to do that.
 

He’s a single point of failure. Just like Elon can be coerced by outside forces, so could he. There’s no such figure in the Bitcoin community to corrupt. If people try to attack Bitcoin, like Elon, they get scorched. 
 

 

The above reasons are why I’m skeptical of Ethereum and I own only a very small amount relative to Bitcoin. It’s probably 97/3. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23,568

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Posted
6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes no shit - he’s been quiet since the SEC starting digging.  But only quiet w TSLA tweets...that’s my entire point, buddy.  

Uh no. He continues to tweet bullshit about Tesla's FSD capabilities that completely contradicts reality. Desperate to keep that stock price up. 

Quote

In March, PlainSite published communications from last December between Tesla’s associate general counsel Eric Williams and California DMV’s chief of the autonomous vehicles branch, Miguel Acosta. In it, Williams notes that “neither Autopilot nor FSD Capability is an autonomous system, and currently no comprising feature, whether singularly or collectively, is autonomous or makes our vehicles autonomous.” In other words, Tesla’s FSD beta is self-driving in name only.

Quote

According to his own employees, Elon Musk has been exaggerating the capabilities of Tesla's Autopilot system. Documents obtained from the California Department of Motor Vehicles show that despite Musk's tweets to the contrary, "Elon's tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ. Tesla is at Level 2 currently." CJ Moore is the company's director of Autopilot software. "Level 2 technology refers to a semi-automated driving system, which requires supervision by a human driver," reports The Verge. "Tesla is unlikely to achieve Level 5 (L5) autonomy, in which its cars can drive themselves anywhere, under any conditions, without any human supervision, by the end of 2021, Tesla representatives told the DMV.

To switch gears back towards crypto, which is the point of this thread, Elon should build a huge solar farm with battery storage to exclusively feed a Tesla BTC mining operation. Demonstrate a more environmentally friendly approach to BTC.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

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Posted

Agree to disagree.  He’s not nearly as brazen as he was.  
 

And on the topic at hand, I’m seeing 40k before 60k. And now that it’s clear the government will try to regulate it, at some point, the several hundred k price maybe a couple decades off, not a couple years.  
 

Hope this post gives the price bump I need to dump my BTC...

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Blotto

Blotto 23,568

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38 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Elon is championing Doge.  He had SpaceX announce they would accept Doge payments.  He started a twitter/facebook poll about Tesla accepting Doge payments.  Both actions post his SNL appearance.  He wants Doge to replace Bitcoin as the #1 crypto.  

I don't really pay a lot of attention to Dogecoin because its hard for me to take it seriously, but isnt there an unlimited supply of Dogecoin? That seems in opposition to the entire premise justifying the value of bitcoin (not that I necessarily agree with that premise). 

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

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1 hour ago, bernorange said:

Elon is championing Doge.  He had SpaceX announce they would accept Doge payments.  He started a twitter/facebook poll about Tesla accepting Doge payments.  Both actions post his SNL appearance.  He wants Doge to replace Bitcoin as the #1 crypto.  

Beware of the Doge...shit is a pussy magnet.  

17ADB099-AA91-4A41-899C-9079E75D3088.jpeg

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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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Posted
1 hour ago, Blotto said:

I don't really pay a lot of attention to Dogecoin because its hard for me to take it seriously, but isnt there an unlimited supply of Dogecoin? That seems in opposition to the entire premise justifying the value of bitcoin (not that I necessarily agree with that premise). 

Yes. It’s all nonsense. Elon is trolling at this point. 

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ajax

ajax 2,620

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Posted
3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Beware of the Doge...shit is a pussy magnet.  

17ADB099-AA91-4A41-899C-9079E75D3088.jpeg

You missed the best quote in that article.

Quote

She told him she wants his baby and called him Dogecoin Papi.

Obviously fake but funny.

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21,154

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Posted
3 minutes ago, ajax said:

You missed the best quote in that article.

Obviously fake but funny.

It's amazing.  We've jumped the shark with crypto.  Nothing is hard to believe anymore...

I was told "Hog Coin, because, bro, Connor McGregor is gonna start pumping it".  So I look this morning and it was down 48%... I'll pass.  Then since I had googled McGregor I saw he made a couple hundred million dollars selling that dog piss Proper No 12.  What a world...

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Hornlover

Hornlover 8,830

Posted
Posted
On 5/12/2021 at 5:28 PM, Queen Bitch said:

 

Is... is he just now learning about this? Like, now? Halfway through 2021?

He's known it. But, he just started getting lots of flak about this because:

1.  Tesla pitches itself as a green alternative to gas-powered cars

2. Tesla generates tons of money (estimated $2BN in 2021) selling carbon credits to other auto manufacturers

3. It's hypocritical to tout his environmental creds, while simultaneously supporting massive energy burners

The amount of energy used to mine BTC is staggering, and the incentive to consume more only keeps going up with the price.

https://qz.com/1982209/how-bitcoin-can-become-more-climate-friendly/

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

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Posted

@GRHorn according to this page:

https://cryptoslate.com/cryptos/proof-of-work/

There are only a few PoW coins out there.

Bitcoin (expensive/slow)

Etherium (until it transitions to ETH2)

Litecoin/Dogecoin (lack privacy features)

Monero/zCash (Snowden says they offer strong privacy features)

Dash (I know nothing about this one)

and a couple of bitcoin derivatives that I suspect will have trouble emerging from BTC's shadow.

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bernorange

bernorange 8,363

Posted
Posted
On 5/13/2021 at 8:48 AM, ChiTownDoc said:

... I’m seeing 40k before 60k. ...

Hope this post gives the price bump I need to dump my BTC...

Trading action today really looks like the downside action is done.  Just about everything except BTC is recovering strongly.  BTC is heading up, but slower than most everything else.

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