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Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

surlybevo

By surlybevo
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted
On 9/27/2021 at 3:40 PM, Satoshi said:

Edit- I haven’t been following this guy, but evidently he has no shot. StilL like seeing it thrown out there. 

I've long thought that we will ultimately see a run with sovereign wealth funds buying crypto. Say you're Kuwait with your >$500B fund. Is throwing $1B into crypto really that risky? Worst case you lose $1B. Best case, it's 10x in 2 years.

There probably is some level of pressure from international govts to avoid crypto but also no one needs to know.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15347

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Bitcoin showing some nice strength relative to traditional markets and even other cryptos. Looking good 

There seems to be some bubbling under the surface and the whole crypto market seems like it’s going to come to a nice boil pretty soon.   Threw $1k on SHIB the other day just for giggles and that bitch has damn doubled since I did.   Yay.    Hoping that this infrastructure bill will go forward without crypto leg included.  I bought a boatload of Clover after it crashed (mainly due to this leg) and I think it could skyrocket. 

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted
On 9/27/2021 at 1:08 PM, Satoshi said:

Tangentially related to crypto here. A stock I’ve posted about before. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage. I’m a holder.
 

 

Looks like the squeeze happened, at least to some extent.  Up 40% in just over a week. I’ll continue holding but it makes sense there could be a nice pullback. 

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

Posted
Posted

I think I asked this question before but I don’t recall the answer. Does anybody have an estimate of what percentage of all BTC is sloshing around versus laying very still? I seem to remember once reading that the vast majority of BTC was in strong hands, i.e. they never sell.

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I think I asked this question before but I don’t recall the answer. Does anybody have an estimate of what percentage of all BTC is sloshing around versus laying very still? I seem to remember once reading that the vast majority of BTC was in strong hands, i.e. they never sell.

I just saw this metric yesterday. Not exactly sure how they come up with it. But of coins not on exchanges over 80% have not moved in >6 months. 
 

Trying to find number of coins on exchanges right now, but the on chain metrics followers have been adamant that supply was decreasing for the last month plus, despite a lot of sideways price action. 

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I wonder if they count staked coins as off exchange or not.  I suspect that more and more peeps are staking their coins and that could be a significant factor in that calculus.

Bitcoin is not staked 

 

This is a pretty dope prediction that has been spot on. 
 

 

Edited by Satoshi
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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted
On 10/7/2021 at 5:01 PM, washparkhorn said:

Poor gold can't get respect no damn respect an inflation hedge? 

Are gold bugs bailing to crypto?

spacer.png

 

 

It’s hard to see gold stuck in mud in the face of this inflation and not see Bitcoin as having some effect.

In other news, this rally still has a lot of legs if retail is a seller and not yet a buyer. 
 

 

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted
20 hours ago, tbone_ said:

What’s the deal with Tether and the billions no one can see?

Tether Is a stablecoin managed by the offshore exchange Bitfinex. There are currently almost $70B in circulation. There have long been concerns about how much of that is actually backed and what composes the reserves. Concerns of fraud etc. Bitfinex has historically not been very transparent publiclyT, but the Ny AG conducted a long investigation and gave them a slap on the wrist fine for some minor infractions.
 

In recent public disclosures since then they have claimed to have a lot of reserves in corporate paper which is unconventional. That led to a new Tether conspiracy theory that they owned a ton of Evergrande paper and that was going to bring down Bitcoin/crypto. None of the numerous Tether conspiracy theories have been found to be true at least to the extent that they hurt the market or cause the Tether peg to break. 
 

TL;DR 

Tether FUD is hapless, fruitless bear porn. 

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

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Posted
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

I've never gotten into crypto (maybe because I'm an old), but can someone tell me what drives the pricing of either the crypto markets or individual currency?
Or point me to some resources to look at what drives this engine?

The broader crypto market pricing is based mostly on speculation. Some of it based on the utility of which tokens are used to buy NFTs. Ethereum and Solana rule there. My knowledge of that genre is fairly limited so I’ll stop there. There is a whole separate thread on nfts if you’re interested. 
 

My interest is more Bitcoin centric so I can help there. It’s a complex topic but I’ll try. Bitcoin’s value is derived from two basic attributes imo. First of all it is a verifiably scarce asset in a time of fiat abundance. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin. It doesn’t take a sophisticated observer of financial markets to see the enormous amount of money printing that has happened in increasing amounts since 2007-2008. We’re seeing some of the chickens coming home to roost now in the cpi numbers, but the effects have been obvious in the prices of real estate, health care and higher education for years. If you’ve been holding Bitcoin for a while now the cost of those things has actually gone down in Bitcoin terms in the face of massive fiat increases. 
 

The second big reason Bitcoin has value is it is an uncensorable form of money. Anyone on the planet that can access the network can transmit value over it. That used to be something that really only resonated with citizens in developing countries. But we now live in a country where the government is pushing for access to surveil any bank account with over $600 in it. If/when they get that it doesn’t take a lot to see a world where more and more transactions are flagged if you’re a “domestic terrorist” or engaging in activities that are detrimental to the climate or anything else the government doesn’t like. And if you think those are valid concerns that should be censored then you need to realize that power can be directed against anything eventually when the wrong person is in charge. I sleep well knowing that a significant portion of my wealth is outside the control of our legacy financial system and the government. 
 

In short, Bitcoin is freedom money that cannot be debased. Its price goes up as more people and entities decide they want to hold some for reason #1 or reason #2 or both.  
 

If you’re interested in a more in depth look at the history of money and why Bitcoin is important this site has an introductory course on it. I haven’t watched the videos but it’s a well regarded, free course.

 

https://learn.saylor.org/course/PRDV151
 

 

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bernorange

bernorange 8362

Posted
Posted

I guess people are buying the rumor (BTC ETF) right now.  If the SEC doesn't deliver, BTC is going to take a hit.  Then again, from what I've read, the price action in BTC right now is almost exclusively being driven by "big whales" and not retail, so maybe insider trading amongst SEC/Fed/Banker circles?

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Posted
Posted

I'm sure it's been discussed, but I'd be interested in views on what people see crypto as in 5 years? 10 years? Not in price, but usage and influence.

In my mind, it feels much like the early days of the Internet (though I don't think crypto will be as transformative as the net). We're just on the threshold of what it could be.

For Bitcoin, I think the "digital gold" is the best analogy right now, and I think adoption is extremely low compared to what it could be. I wouldn't be surprised if every endowment/hedge fund/pension has 1-3% held in BTC in a decade.

The only other one I am invested in is ETH. Seems like there's something bigger there as far as usage. I think the entire thing is a bit complex for the average person now, but barriers to entry will likely come down quickly. I could see something like ETH (or some other coin) becoming the currency of the Internet. I think that's where there is the most interesting potential. 

This is all just complete novice takes. Would love to hear people's thoughts.

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, bernorange said:

I guess people are buying the rumor (BTC ETF) right now.  If the SEC doesn't deliver, BTC is going to take a hit.  Then again, from what I've read, the price action in BTC right now is almost exclusively being driven by "big whales" and not retail, so maybe insider trading amongst SEC/Fed/Banker circles?

I think you’re probably right about some front running. Gensler is former GS. As you know their squid tentacles go everywhere. Word could’ve gotten around to institutions or other companies that it’s safe to allocate some to it. 
 

In other news, Jack keeps pumping Bitcoin. 
 

 

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Satoshi said:

https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/bitcoin-futures-etf-said-not-to-face-sec-opposition-at-deadline
 

This news might be a bit overblown imo. My understanding is that a futures based etf will be more complex and have higher fees associated with rolling over contracts repeatedly but it’s a bit over my head. 

Why the hell do they have to build an ETF based on futures??? Why couldn’t they just buy BTC?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted

I don’t understand why someone with a decent portfolio wouldn’t put at least 1% in btc and eth.  They’re obviously near ATHs at the moment but a 10x return is within the realm of realistic possibility.

I would also recommend buying over several months for dollar cost averaging to protect against unexpected flash crashes especially due to govt announcements. 

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted
On 10/17/2021 at 8:18 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t understand why someone with a decent portfolio wouldn’t put at least 1% in btc and eth.  They’re obviously near ATHs at the moment but a 10x return is within the realm of realistic possibility.

I would also recommend buying over several months for dollar cost averaging to protect against unexpected flash crashes especially due to govt announcements. 

1% is too conservative. I’d say 5% is the minimum allocation if you’re open to it at all. 
 

in other news...

 


 

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Satoshi

Satoshi 129

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

BTC at 65k.

 

🔥

 

HODL

217-EF9-E6-866-B-4444-B7-C8-56-D3602773-

C23315-CC-06-C3-4-EC5-8724-399-A4-F2-DDD

5-E43-A828-0-A99-4-A0-F-BB0-D-E0-C11724-

7-EBF2-A06-C1-AC-47-EC-89-AC-C95-A693-BD

fuck yes. It’s on. Can’t wait to see how far we go. 
 

I checked the price at a stop light and basically re-enacted the scene from Goodfellas when Henry hears on the radio about the Lufthansa heist coming through. 
 

Congrats to all that have stuck around and taken the lumps! 

Edited by Satoshi
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gyroprotagonist

gyroprotagonist 2594

Posted
Posted

just like there were some poker players that moved to Mexico so they could play online without hassles from the US gov, there might be traders that would move to a no-tax country.  Hell, there are people I know in some of the NFT discords that claim they are looking at $300-400K in taxes for 2021 gains.  based on their sales i have seen, i tend to believe them.  will interesting to see if ex-pat populations spring up in other countries.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13515

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Back in July BTC touched 30k and I was like OK, I’m gonna get some at 30k, but that day I was tied up with something and then it took off and I never got any. At least I bought a little bit of ETH at 2k.

Almost everyone in crypto has fallen prey to either missing a buying opportunity that they meant to buy, or they're waiting for a low to hit that never does. I know a few people that targeted 10-12K when BTC hit 15K. I think they're still waiting and the money they would have saved would be inconsequential now.

My advice to anyone is that btc is more difficult to guess than any investment. If you think BTC is going to 100K, don't wait for a 10% correction. Buy some today. And hold some $ back to buy next month. 

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