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Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)


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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, TreatyOak said:

Hot Crypto Friend Update: 

My hot Asian female friend is angry at me. She says I'm doing myself a disservice by not investing enough of my retirement into crypto through her friend's platform. I don't want to make her mad, so I am going to invest anther $150K. Unfortunately, our meeting-up in Taipei was delayed. She has gotten tied up in some sort of passport issue. I'll let you know when we set up the new meeting! ❤️ 

What’s really sad is that you’re probably talking to some guy chained to a table/desktop in Myanmar.

if you send 150k, he will earn a cookie with his dinner. 

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie
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2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

What’s really sad is that you’re probably talking to some guy chained to a table/desktop in Myanmar.

if you send 150k, he will earn a cookie with his dinner. 

Apparently, they created an entire little city there just for this scam. So evil. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
3 hours ago, Tailgate said:

Head scratcher here on the movement of BTC in correlation with stocks. Make sure you’ve got some cash under the mattress…damn.

There's roughly $10B of creditor repayment from the Mt Gox bankruptcy that started distribution just last month. One wonders how much of that newly-recovered funds is being liquidated to support or take advantage of the Nikkei crashing. And over the weekend there was also news of Jump Trading, a large prop firm / market maker, liquidating its books (shuttering the business?).  That may have caused some crypto accounts to deleverage

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1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

lol. Crypto then gives you a way to legally invest in crime. 

In other news, the El Chapo arrests caused bitcoin to slump today. However the Russian arms dealers see opportunity with the unrest in the Middle East—a bullish sign to buy the dip. 

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  • 1 month later...

Looks like Fed 50bps cut in interest rates  might have helped bring Bitcoin out of its slumber. Currently about 15% under its ATH with the initiation of a monetary easing cycle. 2025 will be very interesting. 
 

For those who are interested in exposure in their 401k, Microstrategy is very interesting. There are of course the etfs, but microstrategy is commanding a premium to the NAV of its BTC holdings. Why? In part because through their access of capital markets they are able to actually increase the amount of BTC per share over time. Pretty fascinating. 
 

They just raised another $875M from debt markets to buy more. Initially proposed $700M but there was extra demand. 
 


 

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  • 3 weeks later...

It's sad that so many of the bitcoin rubes don't realize that the creation of ETF's amounted to artificially increasing the supply of bitcoin and absolutely increased the legislative monitoring of it.  It's sad how correlated with the stock market its become.  

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52 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's sad that so many of the bitcoin rubes don't realize that the creation of ETF's amounted to artificially increasing the supply of bitcoin and absolutely increased the legislative monitoring of it.  It's sad how correlated with the stock market it’s become.  

Wouldn’t the creation of Bitcoin ETFs increase demand? Explain how they artificially increase supply to me like I’m a rube. 

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1 hour ago, TonyTexas said:

Wouldn’t the creation of Bitcoin ETFs increase demand? Explain how they artificially increase supply to me like I’m a rube. 

Bitcoin ETF's increase the velocity of transaction and transactions.  There will only ever be 21mm bitcoin mined.   Prior to IBIT coming out, you had to go to an exchange or other method to actually buy it.   Then IBIT came out.   There are 649,640,000 shares of it.  Notionally, it is 80x the amount of BTC in the market.  Who's to say VelocityShares and 10 other fund families don't come out and make more etf's/etn's? Who's to say BlackRock won't issue another 650mm shares?  It creates liquidity in the market, but it puts a theoretical limit on the worth of actual bitcoin as funds can continuously issue shares if they need in order to increase their own liquidity.   Soon, they'll be trading options contracts on them.   Why go through all the trouble to buy on one of the coin exchanges when I can go 'buy' it on NASDAQ??  

 

It may have increased demand for it, but not near as much as it has increased 'supply' of it.  

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https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust

$22,547,229,493 net assets / 649,640,000 shares = $34.70/share

IBIT owns 369,822.19680 BTC worth $22,562,349,270

Before the ETFs were approved, I asked Eric Balchunas on X/Twitter about how the ETF was supposed to work (ie. when they were supposed to buy or sell BTC from the market).  He said they are 1:1 dollar for dollar.  IOW, if the ETF sees $100 million in inflows, they will buy $100 million worth of BTC.

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@Trey3216 I’m a bitcoin novice and just trying to make sense of what you’re saying. It seems that IBIT is a spot bitcoin ETF which requires it to actually own a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. If IBIT has 650M shares outstanding at $34/shr, that’s a current market cap of $22B, a small percentage of the total value of outstanding Bitcoins. 

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4 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

@Trey3216 I’m a bitcoin novice and just trying to make sense of what you’re saying. It seems that IBIT is a spot bitcoin ETF which requires it to actually own a corresponding amount of Bitcoin. If IBIT has 650M shares outstanding at $34/shr, that’s a current market cap of $22B, a small percentage of the total value of outstanding Bitcoins. 

They most certainly do own quite a bit.  But as more and more come on line, and funds of funds are made out of them, it will ultimately lead to artificially inflating the supply.   Think about the derivative markets in general.  Think about what happened in '08 when we had financial institutions collapsing because 3rd and 4th order derivative tranches built on slices of MBS were collapsing.  You had a hundred trillion $$ of derivatives built on hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgages.  It was a fucking trainwreck.  

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14 minutes ago, bernorange said:

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust

$22,547,229,493 net assets / 649,640,000 shares = $34.70/share

IBIT owns 369,822.19680 BTC worth $22,562,349,270

Before the ETFs were approved, I asked Eric Balchunas on X/Twitter about how the ETF was supposed to work (ie. when they were supposed to buy or sell BTC from the market).  He said they are 1:1 dollar for dollar.  IOW, if the ETF sees $100 million in inflows, they will buy $100 million worth of BTC.

My main point is that you will eventually have funds of funds of these things, and options on the funds and the funds of funds.  Supply supply supply.  

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12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

My main point is that you will eventually have funds of funds of these things, and options on the funds and the funds of funds.  Supply supply supply.  

It’s OK to make mistakes if you admit and learn from them and not continuously move the goalposts in their defense. 

Edited by TonyTexas
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2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

It’s OK to be mistaken only if you learn from those mistakes and not continuously move the goalposts in their defense. 

I'm not against bitcoin, or trying to move goal posts.  You've given the public a place to go and get bitcoin without having to, you know, actually try and go out and get bitcoin.  It's a lot cheaper to go buy a few gallons of gas than it is drill, pump and refine it yourself.  It turned gasoline into a common good rather than a rare good.   Bitcoin is no longer a rare good.  

 

I have some myself, and I have IBIT as well.   I just think the advent of the ability to trade it so easily will suppress the "hypergrowth" scenarios in the future.  It'll trot along with the stock market.  

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Bitcoin ETF's increase the velocity of transaction and transactions.  There will only ever be 21mm bitcoin mined.   Prior to IBIT coming out, you had to go to an exchange or other method to actually buy it.   Then IBIT came out.   There are 649,640,000 shares of it.  Notionally, it is 80x the amount of BTC in the market.  Who's to say VelocityShares and 10 other fund families don't come out and make more etf's/etn's? Who's to say BlackRock won't issue another 650mm shares?  It creates liquidity in the market, but it puts a theoretical limit on the worth of actual bitcoin as funds can continuously issue shares if they need in order to increase their own liquidity.   Soon, they'll be trading options contracts on them.   Why go through all the trouble to buy on one of the coin exchanges when I can go 'buy' it on NASDAQ??  

 

It may have increased demand for it, but not near as much as it has increased 'supply' of it.  

it's also leveraging the hell out of the bitcoin market, there's a ton of sidebets and instruments getting made on top of BTC

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The spot ETFs are not "increasing supply".  Folks that want BTC - even indirectly via spot ETF - have a limited supply from which they can acquire it.  This is and has always been true.  This is why the halving event is consequential.  BTC price action over the last few months (since spot ETF approval) been subject to a few inverse supply shocks with BTC from Grayscale Trust, FTX bankruptcy, Mt. Gox bankruptcy, etc. adding significant supply to the market.

I don't know what may happen with other derivative products or how they might be structured, but any investor funds they attract won't magically create more BTC supply.  

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10 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm not against bitcoin, or trying to move goal posts.  You've given the public a place to go and get bitcoin without having to, you know, actually try and go out and get bitcoin.  It's a lot cheaper to go buy a few gallons of gas than it is drill, pump and refine it yourself.  It turned gasoline into a common good rather than a rare good.   Bitcoin is no longer a rare good.  

 

I have some myself, and I have IBIT as well.   I just think the advent of the ability to trade it so easily will suppress the "hypergrowth" scenarios in the future.  It'll trot along with the stock market.  

I get your point and its interesting to think about possible market distortions from these derivative products and "funds of funds" that may move the price more than any actual demand for the underlying asset(at least traditional use case demand). So many guys with BTC hard-ons praise its uniqueness from traditional asset classes and tout it as a hedge against an inevitable financial collapse. But it appears to me that it trends more and more towards those asset classes as it becomes increasingly adopted by "big finance." The Blackrocks of the  world don't give a fuck about bitcoin beyond their ability to take the BTC "widget", create financial products/markets around that widget, and scrape fees/profits off those products/markets. The more influence the "establishment" gains, the more the BTC universe will mirror what it was originally created to combat. 

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39 minutes ago, Blotto said:

The more influence the "establishment" gains, the more the BTC universe will mirror what it was originally created to combat. 

That's inevitable.  If you want to create a widget that's actually useful and usable, then it will get used by more and more people, and will naturally evolve into the kind of thing people are used to using.

If you want to keep it inaccessible and occult, then it won't be very useful or usable.

"Success" is a curse.

I truly don't get the "it's a hedge against financial collapse."  How? It's 1s and 0s.  I at least get the goldbugs ("it's a hard asset, man has been trading gold for goods for millenia!").  If SHTF, truly....how are electronically accessed 1s and 0s going to be of any real use or value?

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On 10/10/2024 at 4:56 PM, Brisketexan said:

That's inevitable.  If you want to create a widget that's actually useful and usable, then it will get used by more and more people, and will naturally evolve into the kind of thing people are used to using.

If you want to keep it inaccessible and occult, then it won't be very useful or usable.

"Success" is a curse.

I truly don't get the "it's a hedge against financial collapse."  How? It's 1s and 0s.  I at least get the goldbugs ("it's a hard asset, man has been trading gold for goods for millenia!").  If SHTF, truly....how are electronically accessed 1s and 0s going to be of any real use or value?

I will never get this. The entire thing is a scam, but there are always willing participants on this kind of stuff. All you have to do is sing the siren song of “come here and get rich quick” and before long you have people handing over money they don’t have to spare. The sooner this stuff is outright banned by the government the better. 

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I will never get this. The entire thing is a scam, but there are always willing participants on this kind of stuff. All you have to do is sing the siren song of “come here and get rich quick” and before long you have people handing over money they don’t have to spare. The sooner this stuff is outright banned by the government the better. 
I don't think any of it should be outright "banned."  If people want to speculate on collectible taxidermy toads, more power to them.  Just enforce existing legal frameworks/concepts with respect to the securities scam that it is.  
Got this text spam the other day.  This is how you know crypto is a totally for real legit thing and not a scam:
 
1d6db8aa71827962fb7523df3605d22d.jpeg
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8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't think any of it should be outright "banned."  If people want to speculate on collectible taxidermy toads, more power to them.  Just enforce existing legal frameworks/concepts with respect to the securities scam that it is.  
Got this text spam the other day.  This is how you know crypto is a totally for real legit thing and not a scam:
 
1d6db8aa71827962fb7523df3605d22d.jpeg

That’s just amazing right there. Why Brisket if you join that guy you’re making a 100 grand today!

Despite all evidence showing crypto is a scam we still have people here propping this clown show up as being legitimate. It really is incredible what people will do to make a dishonest dollar. The love of money is not the root of all evil, but man it’s a heckuva drug for a whole lot of people. 

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