Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[Parliament 14399]

Cryptocurrency is naturally deflationary.  Money supply goes up -> money flows into Bitcoin/Dogecoin/etc -> prices go up -> more money goes in -> someone panics (and likely posts a TikTok vid) -> prices crash and all that actual money that started it disappears.  Like literally taking a pile of cash US Dollars and burning it.

Rince -> repeat

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

Microstrategy earnings today. Big announcement. 

 

 

Over next 3 years. 

Their “BTC yield” forecast raised. 

 

Shit’s gonna get wild. 

[MAUFRAIS 6679]

Want candy corn

[Nice Guy Eddie 13561]

17 hours ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

 

The ship has sailed in that more institutions and govts are looking into bitcoin and perhaps other crypto. When funds (pension, ETFs, state/national sovereign) decide to buy bitcoin, the price almost has nowhere to go but skyrocket since there is an extremely limited supply.

There are uninformed critics that point to the question that how do you know there isn't more bitcoin or that more can't be created by hackers. That's out of ignorance in that the code regulates the growth and the blockchain can be read by anyone to see the exact amounts today. There are some nerdy finance and math types who debated and mitigated every concern years ago. There are more controls in the bitcoin blockchain than other financial systems.

 

 

[Captainant 27990]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The ship has sailed in that more institutions and govts are looking into bitcoin and perhaps other crypto. When funds (pension, ETFs, state/national sovereign) decide to buy bitcoin, the price almost has nowhere to go but skyrocket since there is an extremely limited supply.

There are uninformed critics that point to the question that how do you know there isn't more bitcoin or that more can't be created by hackers. That's out of ignorance in that the code regulates the growth and the blockchain can be read by anyone to see the exact amounts today. There are some nerdy finance and math types who debated and mitigated every concern years ago. There are more controls in the bitcoin blockchain than other financial systems.

There's still the fundamental problem that the only reason to buy Bitcoin is the hope of selling it to someone else for more in the future. It is generally impractical for use as a currency, and does not play well with market expectations for a payment system. 

If you abstract it away to just being a value in an account, then sure NGU all day baybay. But why would the value go up? What utility is driving the cost increase aside from FOMO?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13561]

16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

There's still the fundamental problem that the only reason to buy Bitcoin is the hope of selling it to someone else for more in the future. It is generally impractical for use as a currency, and does not play well with market expectations for a payment system. 

If you abstract it away to just being a value in an account, then sure NGU all day baybay. But why would the value go up? What utility is driving the cost increase aside from FOMO?

I agree there is a Greater Fool Theory in play with Bitcoin until it becomes a self realized prophecy as more people and wealth buys into it. What is the value of fiat currency other than you have faith that the country behind it. You hold onto whatever currency based on the hope that the country and its citizens agree that it has value. If Americans agreed today that the $2 bill was actually phony money, it would not be exchangeable for two $1 bills. 

Personally I don't even consider bitcoin to be a currency. It's called that because of the incorrectly applied term, cryptocurrency. 

Value is defined by what people want it to be defined. You or I can't tell others how to define it. 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

20 hours ago, Captainant said:

There's still the fundamental problem that the only reason to buy Bitcoin is the hope of selling it to someone else for more in the future. It is generally impractical for use as a currency, and does not play well with market expectations for a payment system. 

If you abstract it away to just being a value in an account, then sure NGU all day baybay. But why would the value go up? What utility is driving the cost increase aside from FOMO?

Pretty simple. It's a long term store of value, like gold. As monetary units are debased, it will go up given the 21 million coin cap.

How useful is gold as a currency? Is it used in any payment systems? 

 

Also, going back to Microstrategy. What they are doing and attempting to ramp up is really fascinating. A very compelling long term opportunity for people with money trapped in 401k or other accounts. Michael Saylor explains in great detail in the most recent earnings call starting at 28:00.

Explore MicroStrategy's Investor Relations: Stay Informed on Financial Performance and Corporate Governance

Tl;DR

The financial products that can be provided to market based on their bitcoin holdings are actually accretive to shareholders. If you look at it as earnings, the amount of value they're creating is substantial.

Let's say they hit the middle of their "BTC yield" target for 2025 at 8%. Based on holding 252,000 BTC currently that would be about 20,000 BTC accretive to shareholders. At today's prices that's $1.4B annually.

But they will also be adding BTC intermittently via selling equity that adds to their base stack. These numbers will get big. 

While selling equity in almost any other case is dilutive and knocks down the share price, it's telling that they announced the largest ever ATM equity offering and the stock is up. As he mentions, when they raise capital they deploy it and can get returns in 5 days, not 5 years.

 

[Captainant 27990]

1 hour ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

How useful is gold as a currency? Is it used in any payment systems? 

Gold has actual utility as a commodity. It's a core component of electronics and chips, in addition to being physically tangible and not requiring gigawatts of power to complete a transaction with it, nor half an hour or more to confirm the transaction 

 

1 hour ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

The financial products that can be provided to market based on their bitcoin holdings are actually accretive to shareholders. If you look at it as earnings, the amount of value they're creating is substantial.

But it's just an abstraction of an abstraction of a digital value. There's nothing THERE!

I recognize that there's technical utility in block chains and a distributed architecture, but none of that has to do with why Bitcoin is bought and sold. It's all FOMO and hoping to sell for more than you bought it, with literally zero other generally used utility or function. 

 

But I gotta say GRUhorn, it is a nice way to fund oligarchs and dictators around the world. I can see why your bosses tell you to stan for it

Edited November 1 by Captainant
Typos, autocorrect

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

It's ok. I'm aware that you don't get it. 

It does give me a small amount of satisfaction knowing that the lamest posters on here will be among the last to get it, and it will benefit them the least.

 

The game theory will play out over time. The earliest corporate adopter is the best performing stock on the planet the last 4 years. The earliest sovereign adopter has seen a resurgence.  I'm sure multiple sovereigns already are privately. 

Next, you'll see outperformance by the pensions and other funds that have invested in the etfs. These things will all eventually be followed by others. And on it goes. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

And you'll still be claiming there's nothing THERE!

[Captainant 27990]

5 hours ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

The game theory will play out over time. The earliest corporate adopter is the best performing stock on the planet the last 4 years. The earliest sovereign adopter has seen a resurgence.  I'm sure multiple sovereigns already are privately. 

Which stock would that be? You seem to be claiming that their adoption of BTC is responsible for the growth, so please show your work

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

32 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Which stock would that be? You seem to be claiming that their adoption of BTC is responsible for the growth, so please show your work

Sigh

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 1 by Maestro della Moneta

[Captainant 27990]

3 hours ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

Sigh

 

 

 

 

 

Real solid fundamentals underlying it's growth and not FOMO amirite 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

17 hours ago, Captainant said:

Real solid fundamentals underlying it's growth and not FOMO amirite 

 

 

As far as net income numbers, that’s due to old FASB accounting standards around digital assets. Theyve been updated and that will effect Q1 2025. 

 

https://dart.deloitte.com/USDART/home/publications/deloitte/heads-up/2023/fasb-issues-asu-crypto-assets#

 

The current valuation is based more on the assets they hold and what they're doing with them. 

The biggest effect of the new standards will be Bitcoin appreciation marked as net income. I believe positive net income is the only thing holding back MSTR from S&P 500 inclusion, later Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Then you will all become passive Bitcoin hodlers via SPY and QQQ.

 

Congrats Captain!

 

[Captainant 27990]

1 minute ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

The biggest effect of the new standards will be Bitcoin appreciation marked as net income. I believe positive net income is the only thing holding back MSTR from S&P 500 inclusion, later Nasdaq 100 inclusion. Then you will all become passive Bitcoin hodlers via SPY and QQQ.

So you want to claim unrealized gains as profit? Seems unwise and Enron-like

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

So you want to claim unrealized gains as profit? Seems unwise and Enron-like

I don't want to do anything. It’s accounting standards. 

[B00M 6587]

On 11/2/2024 at 3:37 PM, Maestro della Moneta said:

The biggest effect of the new standards will be Bitcoin appreciation marked as net income. 

Will it be taxed like income? 

[bernorange 8377]

Quote

The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee has published a new presentation calling for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to replace stablecoins. Pointing to a history of so-called “wildcat banking,” the committee argued that just as the government monopolized the issuance of paper currency by establishing the Federal Reserve, the government should monopolize digital currency by establishing a CBDC: ...

https://www.cato.org/blog/treasury-advisory-committee-calls-cbdcs-replace-stablecoins

[Pam Cummings 9705]

Did it go to the moon yet like yall told me it would 5 years ago? How long we gotta wait?

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

On 11/4/2024 at 7:00 AM, B00M said:

Will it be taxed like income? 

not sure

4 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

Did it go to the moon yet like yall told me it would 5 years ago? How long we gotta wait?

well, on November 5th, 2019 the price was $9,300. Today it's about $70,000.  A healthy 7x+, and I would say it looks primed for more.

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

Bitcoin approaching ATH as election nears its climax. 

One of the most anti crypto senators on the ropes in Ohio. Money from Bitcoin/crypto constituency appears to be making a mark. 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

ATH LFG

 

 

 

[bernorange 8377]

46 minutes ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

One of the most anti crypto senators on the ropes in Ohio. Money from Bitcoin/crypto constituency appears to be making a mark. 

3 Senate races which had heavy crypto PACs investment [in the (R) candidates]:

Ohio - Moreno (R) v Brown (D) - too early to call just yet, but Moreno is in good position

Massachusetts - Warren (D) defeated Deaton (R) 

West Virginia - Justice (R) defeated Elliott (D)

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

41 minutes ago, bernorange said:

3 Senate races which had heavy crypto PACs investment [in the (R) candidates]:

Ohio - Moreno (R) v Brown (D) - too early to call just yet, but Moreno is in good position

Massachusetts - Warren (D) defeated Deaton (R) 

West Virginia - Justice (R) defeated Elliott (D)

It’s been called for Moreno. 

And in the Presidential race I’ll be interested to hear how each candidate’s positions on Bitcoin/crypto affected things. Look like young males, especially minorities, came out more for Trump than projected. They're larger numbers of crypto holders. 

[Captainant 27990]

6 hours ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

It’s been called for Moreno. 

And in the Presidential race I’ll be interested to hear how each candidate’s positions on Bitcoin/crypto affected things. Look like young males, especially minorities, came out more for Trump than projected. They're larger numbers of crypto holders. 

Morning warms my heart more than people voting to destroy civil rights just so they can make more money. It's the sign of a healthy democracy

[52-80 19283]

21 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

Did it go to the moon yet like yall told me it would 5 years ago? How long we gotta wait?

This time 5 years ago Bitcoin was $9,000 and today it's $74,000. 

Hope that clears your confusion.

[Pam Cummings 9705]

4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

This time 5 years ago Bitcoin was $9,000 and today it's $74,000. 

Hope that clears your confusion.

When I started following bitcoin in 2020 it was at $50k, went to $70k in like 3 months, and everyone was ready to declare it was going to $100k and we are all going to the moon. It then leveled off and dipped.

 

Sorry to ruin your little gotcha post. Point still stands; bitcoin is exactly where it was at its peak in 2020.

Edited November 6 by Pam Cummings

[52-80 19283]

14 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

When I started following bitcoin in 2020 it was at $50k, went to $70k in like 3 months, and everyone was ready to declare it was going to $100k and we are all going to the moon. It then leveled off and dipped.

 

Sorry to ruin your little gotcha post. Point still stands; bitcoin is exactly where it was at its peak in 2020.

I'm sorry an 8x growth over the timeframe YOU specified is deemed to be insufficient. 

FYI "its peak in 2020" was $11,000.

[Pam Cummings 9705]

6 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

I'm sorry an 8x growth over the timeframe YOU specified is deemed to be insufficient. 

FYI "its peak in 2020" was $11,000.

All of that happened in one year and it's been at that same level or lower since mid 2021....sooooo sorry I was off by a year in my original post. How dare I not have 100% accuracy with my message board post.

[52-80 19283]

1 minute ago, Pam Cummings said:

All of that happened in one year and it's been at that same level or lower since mid 2021....sooooo sorry I was off by a year in my original post. How dare I not have 100% accuracy with my message board post.

Its peak in 2021 was $64k, which is a $10k or in percentage terms also double-digit off what it is now.  Not "exactly where it was".

This is not quibbling over a decimal place. You've been factually wrong in 3 consecutive posts.

[Pam Cummings 9705]

Just now, 52-80 said:

Its peak in 2021 was $64k, which is a $10k or in percentage terms also double-digit off what it is now.  Not "exactly where it was".

This is not quibbling over a decimal place. You've been factually wrong in 3 consecutive posts.

So.....not to the moon yet, as promised 3 years ago. Got it. I'll wait.

Edited November 6 by Pam Cummings

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Morning warms my heart more than people voting to destroy civil rights just so they can make more money. It's the sign of a healthy democracy

Perhaps take a look at why young people and minorities would be interested in a way to protect to themselves from monetary debasement or are looking for a way to exit a system they feel is rigged against them. I'm pretty sure you feel it's rigged in some way.

I'm sure reflection like that is ongoing in CR. 

lol

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

46 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

So.....not to the moon yet, as promised 3 years ago. Got it. I'll wait.

5 years, 4 years, 3 years. Got it.

We're at all time highs and primed for a massive bull run with a President that has advocated for a national strategic bitcoin reserve amongst other things. Buckle up, Pam.

I'll be curious to see if the USG sold any of the confiscated bitcoin

[Captainant 27990]

3 minutes ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

Perhaps take a look at why young people and minorities would be interested in a way to protect to themselves from monetary debasement or are looking for a way to exit a system they feel is rigged against them. I'm pretty sure you feel it's rigged in some way.

 

 None of this is an argument for bitcoin's value, aside from "it's the totem of a political party in power"

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 None of this is an argument for bitcoin's value, aside from "it's the totem of a political party in power"

It's a hedge against monetary debasement that is easily accessible to young people, outside the legacy financial system.

Again, you're free to keep denying what's staring you in the face with this, as with other things. See how that's working out for you.

[Captainant 27990]

Just now, Maestro della Moneta said:

It's a hedge against monetary debasement that is easily accessible to young people, outside the legacy financial system.

Protects against monetary debasement like a rock protects against tigers lol

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

14 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Protects against monetary debasement like a rock protects against tigers lol

Again, keep that level of reflection. You're doing great.

I would recommend looking at multiple things, especially how you consume information. You might arrive at different conclusions that are more in line with what's happening in finance and the world at large.

Edited November 6 by Maestro della Moneta

[Captainant 27990]

5 minutes ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

Again, keep that level of reflection. You're doing great.

You're just saying "it protects against monetary debasement" and acting like it's a self-enforcing argument. Show your work, I've laid out my technically supported arguments in manifold in this thread and others with your other socks over years. 

You're pointing at the price going up as validation, and acting like that's proof your correctness. Bitcoin and crypto markets are driven by FOMO and the availability of cheap debt.

It's core utility you claim here - of being a useful currency - is not fucking reality

Edited November 6 by Captainant

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

You're just saying "it protects against monetary debasement" and acting like it's a self-enforcing argument. Show your work, I've laid out my technically supported arguments in manifold in this thread and others with your other socks over years. 

You're pointing at the price going up as validation, and acting like that's proof your correctness. Bitcoin and crypto markets are driven by FOMO and the availability of cheap debt.

It's core utility you claim here - of being a useful currency - is not fucking reality

What work do you want to see? As money is printed and M2 has grown, so has bitcoin. The price going up is a sign of increasing adoption, so yes it is validation.

Your technical arguments to why it won't work are irrelevant as it's currently working. Come up with something new.

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

 

 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

 

[B00M 6587]

12 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

When I started following bitcoin in 2020 it was at $50k, went to $70k in like 3 months, and everyone was ready to declare it was going to $100k and we are all going to the moon. It then leveled off and dipped.

 

Sorry to ruin your little gotcha post. Point still stands; bitcoin is exactly where it was at its peak in 2020.

Proof that it’s a stable store of value. Check mate 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Proof that it’s a stable store of value. Check mate 

 

Or you can chart it against the cost of higher education or healthcare or any thing that outpaces official CPI. And guess what? Bitcoin beats it soundly over the long term. Hope that helps. 

[UTPhil2006 3831]

Yeah but can you Refinance your Crypto with UWM's new low rates?

[B00M 6587]

8 hours ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

 

I don’t disagree that the value of BTC in USD has outpaced CPI by a lot over the last 8 years, but the difference in highs from the last peak in 2021 and today’s are relatively modest. The data set for this infographic is obnoxiously cherry picked.

Edited November 7 by B00M

[Parliament 14399]

10 hours ago, Maestro della Moneta said:

 

Or you can chart it against the cost of higher education or healthcare or any thing that outpaces official CPI. And guess what? Bitcoin beats it soundly over the long term. Hope that helps. 

Cool.   Now do November, 2022.

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

2 hours ago, B00M said:

I don’t disagree that the value of BTC in USD has outpaced CPI by a lot over the last 8 years, but the difference in highs from the last peak in 2021 and today’s are relatively modest. The data set for this infographic is obnoxiously cherry picked.

The 4 year gap is chosen because to this point the 4 year price cycle has remained intact. So what does that mean? There should be a new peak in 2025 and you can then compare to that. There are a lot of tailwinds that point to that happening right on time next year.

 

 

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Cool.   Now do November, 2022.

See above.

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

This guy spearheaded the push to get Bitcoin included in the campaign. I share his hope that this isn't a one party issue going forward.

 

I still don't know if I'm sold on the 4 year cycles going away, but a good point made here.

 

 

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

 

 

[bernorange 8377]

Everything is green this morning.  Everything.