Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[Captainant 27989]

47 minutes ago, Parliament said:

How many actual currency-type transactions is Bitcoin used for?

Better question: who has actually used Bitcoin to buy a real thing? 

Spoiler

I have, and it was incredibly unpleasant even as a very technical user

 

[tbone_ 14296]

My BIL converted a hella gain in Cardano to cash to make a down payment on a beach house.

He said it was a lot of fun convincing his lender the funds came from a legit source.

[CHIEF 5102]

We have a family friend (DK) that owns multiple businesses, planes, big offshore boats, etc.. I didn't go to the 19th Hole last night, but CHIEF Jr. did. Someone brought up that Bitcoin was through the roof. DK isn't the most computer savvy, but brought up that he had bought seven bitcoin for $4600 a pop, but hadn't gotten around to selling them because it was complicated. A guy that is a regular bitcoin investor showed him how to sell them. CHIEF Jr. said they watched $719k go into his account, needless to say he picked up everybody's bar tab.

CHIEF

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

For those who don't know the first bitcoin real world purchase was 2 pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin in 2010. I hope the guy at least got 2 large supreme pizzas for what is now $910 million. (At the time, at best the 10K bitcoins were worth $20 so it wasn't an absurd cost.)

but seriously it can be painful to pay via bitcoin because frankly the system is not designed to go fast. You would never buy a coffee with bitcoin with its basic tech. Now if you transfer something like ETH or USDC via the polygon network, the funds are moved before you can even refresh the page or app. 

30 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

We have a family friend (DK) that owns multiple businesses, planes, big offshore boats, etc.. I didn't go to the 19th Hole last night, but CHIEF Jr. did. Someone brought up that Bitcoin was through the roof. DK isn't the most computer savvy, but brought up that he had bought seven bitcoin for $4600 a pop, but hadn't gotten around to selling them because it was complicated. A guy that is a regular bitcoin investor showed him how to sell them. CHIEF Jr. said they watched $719k go into his account, needless to say he picked up everybody's bar tab.

CHIEF

I hope the guy somewhat realized that he was incurring an ~$700K capital gain and thought through the tax implications. But I love stories like this. 

[bernorange 8377]

FWIW:

 

[Captainant 27989]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

but seriously it can be painful to pay via bitcoin because frankly the system is not designed to go fast. You would never buy a coffee with bitcoin with its basic tech. Now if you transfer something like ETH or USDC via the polygon network, the funds are moved before you can even refresh the page or app. 

Not only that - transactions are processed in 10 minute batches. And if your TX doesn't get picked up in that block, you're stuck waiting for an undefined (but usually just another 10-20 minutes) period of time. Or you can pay ever high TX fees to have a better chance of miners adding your TX to the next block.

 

But, I get it. It's not about utility, it's about making money off of FOMO and creating a new type of unregulated financial instrument that can be leveraged for gains

[CHIEF 5102]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

For those who don't know the first bitcoin real world purchase was 2 pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin in 2010. I hope the guy at least got 2 large supreme pizzas for what is now $910 million. (At the time, at best the 10K bitcoins were worth $20 so it wasn't an absurd cost.)

but seriously it can be painful to pay via bitcoin because frankly the system is not designed to go fast. You would never buy a coffee with bitcoin with its basic tech. Now if you transfer something like ETH or USDC via the polygon network, the funds are moved before you can even refresh the page or app. 

I hope the guy somewhat realized that he was incurring an ~$700K capital gain and thought through the tax implications. But I love stories like this. 

He got completely out of bitcoin. He is a retired rodeo star, he bought it for the novelty, but really had no idea how to purchase anything with it. He has enough business expenses to lessen the tax implications. But as Mrs. CHIEF said, "I bet his accountant wants to kick his ass every year."

CHIEF

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

As a cautious bitcoin evangelist, I think stories from @CHIEF are still potentially possible if someone gets into bitcoin today.

Forgetting the per-bitcoin price, his friend basically turned $30K into $700K.  Is there still room for a >20x return if someone got into bitcoin today?  While it seem crazy to think that bitcoin could ever approach a $2m/bitcoin price, someone would have had previously said the same of $90K. 

I've seen estimates of the global gold market at $19T whereas bitcoin is at $1.75T today. I think there's a strong argument that bitcoin could catch if not surpass gold. That simple math takes btc to $1m each. Now if sovereign funds (middle east, norway, perhaps the US or EU) would get into the mix, no one has any idea what that would do it. 

Or bitcoin could be worth a few pennies next year. who knows. But if you invested $30K today, your max loss is 30K with an arguable potential gain of >10x. 

[Jesse Livermore 44]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Not only that - transactions are processed in 10 minute batches. And if your TX doesn't get picked up in that block, you're stuck waiting for an undefined (but usually just another 10-20 minutes) period of time. Or you can pay ever high TX fees to have a better chance of miners adding your TX to the next block.

 

But, I get it. It's not about utility, it's about making money off of FOMO and creating a new type of unregulated financial instrument that can be leveraged for gains

 

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

but seriously it can be painful to pay via bitcoin because frankly the system is not designed to go fast. You would never buy a coffee with bitcoin with its basic tech.

Pay on Lightning 

[Messi Liverpool 4]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As a cautious bitcoin evangelist, I think stories from @CHIEF are still potentially possible if someone gets into bitcoin today.

Forgetting the per-bitcoin price, his friend basically turned $30K into $700K.  Is there still room for a >20x return if someone got into bitcoin today?  While it seem crazy to think that bitcoin could ever approach a $2m/bitcoin price, someone would have had previously said the same of $90K. 

I've seen estimates of the global gold market at $19T whereas bitcoin is at $1.75T today. I think there's a strong argument that bitcoin could catch if not surpass gold. That simple math takes btc to $1m each. Now if sovereign funds (middle east, norway, perhaps the US or EU) would get into the mix, no one has any idea what that would do it. 

Or bitcoin could be worth a few pennies next year. who knows. But if you invested $30K today, your max loss is 30K with an arguable potential gain of >10x. 

I have a friend who is a true believer. He says it's going to top out at $3mm a coin. Who really knows.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

6 minutes ago, Messi Liverpool said:

I have a friend who is a true believer. He says it's going to top out at $3mm a coin. Who really knows.

from his lips to God's ears. But I hope he doesn't wait for that amount before starting to sell.

[Chips O'Toole 1342]

36 minutes ago, Messi Liverpool said:

I have a friend who is a true believer. He says it's going to top out at $3mm a coin. Who really knows.

Yeah, well...how many usernames does he have?

[Jesse Livermore 44]

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As a cautious bitcoin evangelist, I think stories from @CHIEF are still potentially possible if someone gets into bitcoin today.

Forgetting the per-bitcoin price, his friend basically turned $30K into $700K.  Is there still room for a >20x return if someone got into bitcoin today?  While it seem crazy to think that bitcoin could ever approach a $2m/bitcoin price, someone would have had previously said the same of $90K. 

I've seen estimates of the global gold market at $19T whereas bitcoin is at $1.75T today. I think there's a strong argument that bitcoin could catch if not surpass gold. That simple math takes btc to $1m each. Now if sovereign funds (middle east, norway, perhaps the US or EU) would get into the mix, no one has any idea what that would do it. 

Or bitcoin could be worth a few pennies next year. who knows. But if you invested $30K today, your max loss is 30K with an arguable potential gain of >10x. 

 

3 hours ago, Messi Liverpool said:

I have a friend who is a true believer. He says it's going to top out at $3mm a coin. Who really knows.

We will see $1m per coin at some point. Is it in 8 years? 15? Idk but it will happen. 

 

I think gold is next obvious target. But there are other stores of value that could suck capital from. 

Real estate- can provide income, but extra hassles and costs. Very illiquid. 

Bonds-backed by governments, pay coupon, but sensitive to inflation long term. 

Stocks- long term S&P performance of 8-9% basically matches M2 money growth over time. 

 

2 hours ago, Chips O'Toole said:

Yeah, well...how many usernames does he have?

That one isn't me. Soccer is a dumb sport. 

[Jesse Livermore 44]

 

 

[Jesse Livermore 44]

Beware the online influencers shilling you crap. 

 

[Parliament 14391]

19 hours ago, Jesse Livermore said:

Beware the online influencers shilling you crap. 

 

 

Edited November 16 by Parliament

[Jesse Livermore 44]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

No CR but the Sunday afternoon news cycle is a good time trump to announce crypto friendly picks for treasury/sec/cftc. 

[Jesse Livermore 44]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

No CR but the Sunday afternoon news cycle is a good time trump to announce crypto friendly picks for treasury/sec/cftc. 

Evidently treasury is a big fight between Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick, two big finance guys. Both pro Bitcoin/crypto. Supposedly Lutnick a little more so, but it appears the days of government broadly targeting crypto are over. 

 

 

[Captainant 27989]

It's super unfortunate how large bitcoins energy and carbon footprint is, considering how constrained and abused those resources already are. Bitcoin and gold aren't at all the same, because one is a physical object with genuine utility and can be held and the other is a float value stored on a distributed ledger that takes more than 100 Terrawatt-hours (right now) to run. 

There's going to be a point where global energy and water demands won't be able to support Bitcoin growth and society. 

[NYTransplant 148]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It's super unfortunate how large bitcoins energy and carbon footprint is, considering how constrained and abused those resources already are. Bitcoin and gold aren't at all the same, because one is a physical object with genuine utility and can be held and the other is a float value stored on a distributed ledger that takes more than 100 Terrawatt-hours (right now) to run. 

There's going to be a point where global energy and water demands won't be able to support Bitcoin growth and society. 

Is this your new argument against Bitcoin? I've been watching you move the goalposts through most of this thread, and just want to make sure I'm keeping up.

[Captainant 27989]

19 minutes ago, NYTransplant said:

Is this your new argument against Bitcoin? I've been watching you move the goalposts through most of this thread, and just want to make sure I'm keeping up.

What do you mean "new" argument? Inefficiency has been a pretty core critique of proof of work cryptos for a long time. They're designed to use geometrically more power over time. It's the mechanism that keeps Bitcoin scarce. 

[NYTransplant 148]

30 minutes ago, Captainant said:

What do you mean "new" argument? Inefficiency has been a pretty core critique of proof of work cryptos for a long time. They're designed to use geometrically more power over time. It's the mechanism that keeps Bitcoin scarce. 

Sorry, I guess flavor of the day would be more accurate.

In the past couple pages, I've seen you bring up:

• Government Interest - a point which is invalid, as government purchasing does not mean government control.
• Leveraging via ETF's - a point which is invalid with the major ETF's, as they are purchasing BTC with cash inflows (the opposite of leveraging)
• Inefficiency of payments - The typical ACH takes 1-3 days to clear and you're complaining about transfers taking 10-20 minutes to move
• A 51% attack - this is impossible, based on your premise that a government would "take control of a mining pool" (there are less than 2 million BTC left to be mined, or less than 10% of all BTC)

So, yeah, I'm just trying to keep up.

On 11/11/2024 at 7:56 AM, Captainant said:

is this considered a good or bad thing for crypto? A major selling point was insulation from governments and would-be manipulators

 

On 11/11/2024 at 4:09 PM, Captainant said:

It's leveraging BTC more and more. And when the line goes up, that leverage is an excellent thing. If the line goes the other way, it's a ton of exposure to downside.

 

On 11/12/2024 at 11:11 AM, Captainant said:

My main thesis is that if it's a currency, it's a terribly expensive, inefficient and hard to use currency. Its rise in value has not been driven by a rise in utility or decrease in end user costs. Its price is going up from increased FOMO and the expectation of cheaper debt.

 

On 11/12/2024 at 11:56 AM, Captainant said:

A 51% attack is not implausible. If a state actor wanted to, I would imagine they could gain control of a mining pool or two that would get them to the point of controlling pool consensus.

And that's just a perpetual risk, by protocol design

 

On 11/14/2024 at 9:59 AM, Captainant said:

Not only that - transactions are processed in 10 minute batches. And if your TX doesn't get picked up in that block, you're stuck waiting for an undefined (but usually just another 10-20 minutes) period of time. Or you can pay ever high TX fees to have a better chance of miners adding your TX to the next block.

 

But, I get it. It's not about utility, it's about making money off of FOMO and creating a new type of unregulated financial instrument that can be leveraged for gains

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

I’m not arguing that bitcoin is energy efficient but it’s not like the traditional banking system is using 5kWh annually themselves. 

[B00M 6587]

This is weird. A staunchly pro crypto bro that isn’t so batshit on other topics that he has to make a new account every other week? Welcome @NYTransplant

[Jesse Livermore 44]

15 hours ago, NYTransplant said:

Sorry, I guess flavor of the day would be more accurate.

In the past couple pages, I've seen you bring up:

• Government Interest - a point which is invalid, as government purchasing does not mean government control.
• Leveraging via ETF's - a point which is invalid with the major ETF's, as they are purchasing BTC with cash inflows (the opposite of leveraging)
• Inefficiency of payments - The typical ACH takes 1-3 days to clear and you're complaining about transfers taking 10-20 minutes to move
• A 51% attack - this is impossible, based on your premise that a government would "take control of a mining pool" (there are less than 2 million BTC left to be mined, or less than 10% of all BTC)

So, yeah, I'm just trying to keep up.

 

 

 

 

 

Great summation. 

I would also add that I believe he's stated before that he was an early Bitcoin miner or holder but sold it all because it wasn’t going to work or something. Can you imagine finding yourself in the position to secure massive wealth, but making an incorrect judgment and throwing it all away? Explains the saltiness. 

We’ve reached the point in the adoption of Bitcoin that nocoiners are just throwing any FUD they can against the wall. Nothing is sticking. SAD. 

 

18 hours ago, Captainant said:

It's super unfortunate how large bitcoins energy and carbon footprint is, considering how constrained and abused those resources already are. Bitcoin and gold aren't at all the same, because one is a physical object with genuine utility and can be held and the other is a float value stored on a distributed ledger that takes more than 100 Terrawatt-hours (right now) to run. 

There's going to be a point where global energy and water demands won't be able to support Bitcoin growth and society. 

You've been around long enough to know it’s more nuanced than that. A significant portion of mining globally uses stranded and/or renewabwle energy. Another significant portion is involved in demand response programs used to help stabilize and expand grids.  

 

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10476]

Yeah, BTC is definitely not energy efficient currently, but renewable energy and renewed nuclear power interest is pointing to excess energy production in decades to come. It's definitely an issue now but not so sure it will be in the future. Europe is experiencing first wave of it this year.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

1 hour ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Yeah, BTC is definitely not energy efficient currently, but renewable energy and renewed nuclear power interest is pointing to excess energy production in decades to come. It's definitely an issue now but not so sure it will be in the future. Europe is experiencing first wave of it this year.

AI power usage is going to dwarf crypto soon if it's not there already. An anti-crypto person will respond by saying that crypto doesn't have utility like AI. Of course that is a very narrow mindset of crypto.  Modern history has proven that nothing has more utility than making and retaining wealth. Everything else is secondary.

[bernorange 8377]

 

Quote

CHICAGO, IL / ACCESSWIRE / November 18, 2024 / Cosmos Health Inc. ("Cosmos Health" or the "Company'') (NASDAQ:COSM), a diversified, vertically integrated global healthcare group engaged in innovative R&D, owner of proprietary pharmaceutical and nutraceutical brands, manufacturer and distributor of healthcare products, and operator of a telehealth platform, announced today that it has adopted a strategy to include Bitcoin and Ethereum as part of its treasury reserve assets.

The adoption of this new policy follows the Company's forward-thinking approach to investing in new technologies, including the recent acquisition of Cloudscreen, its AI-driven drug repurposing platform.

The Company expects that adding Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with potentially other cryptocurrencies and blockchain-related assets, will help diversify its balance sheet and offer significant upside potential as these assets increasingly gain global adoption.

In addition to holding Bitcoin and Ethereum as treasury reserve assets, the Company is also working to accommodate customers who wish to make payments in cryptocurrencies.
...

https://marketwirenews.com/news-releases/cosmos-health-integrates-bitcoin-and-ethereum-as-tre-6547087009643106.html

 

Quote

SINGAPORE, Nov. 12, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Genius Group Limited (NYSE American: GNS) (“Genius Group” or the “Company”), a leading AI-powered education and acceleration group, today announced that its Board has adopted a global “Bitcoin-first” strategy with Bitcoin to be the primary treasury reserve asset. The Board’s adoption of this new policy follows the recent restructuring of its Board to include experts in Blockchain and Web3 technologies.

The Company’s Board of Directors have approved the following Bitcoin-first strategy:

• To commit 90% or more of our current and future reserves to be held in Bitcoin
•     Commence utilizing our $150 million ATM1to acquire an initial target of $120 million in Bitcoin, to be held for the long term as its primary treasury reserve asset
•     Launch our Web3 Wealth Renaissance education series for students to accelerate their understanding of Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain with Genius Group’s AI-powered guides.
•     Enable Bitcoin payments globally on the Company’s Edtech platform.

...

https://ir.geniusgroup.net/news-events/press-releases/detail/156/genius-group-adopts-bitcoin-treasury-reserve-strategy

 

 

[NYTransplant 148]

6 hours ago, B00M said:

This is weird. A staunchly pro crypto bro that isn’t so batshit on other topics that he has to make a new account every other week? Welcome @NYTransplant

Been on this board since 2018. I don't tend to engage with the trolls, but Captainant's head is so far in the sand, that it's filling his vagina. Figured I'd bounce in to call him out, and go back to lurking on this thread.

Oh, and celebrating the fact that BTC continues to hit ATH's.

Edited November 18 by NYTransplant
Added BTC price.

[Captainant 27989]

1 hour ago, NYTransplant said:

Been on this board since 2018. I don't tend to engage with the trolls, but Captainant's head is so far in the sand, that it's filling his vagina. Figured I'd bounce in to call him out, and go back to lurking on this thread.

Oh, and celebrating the fact that BTC continues to hit ATH's.

I mean, I was posting even earlier in other threads with the same critiques you claim I'm "just now" coming up with. Even in this thread back in March I was talking about it's energy inefficiency.

There's been more substantive technical discussions, but that was probably a dozen socks ago for GRUhorn at this point and not on this sub forum. Sorry that this massively complex topic doesn't have one single thing to critique and distil down for you to read.

 

Please do lurk more, or just post on your main account instead of a sock next time.

[StassneyHorn 6703]

Apparently my 67 year old dad informed his Edward Jones advisor he wants to buy $380,000 of BTC but is pissed he can't do it on their platform, and has to go to Fidelity.

So guess I'm on the ship now

[bernorange 8377]

Saylor (MSTR) supposedly just bought another $4.6 billion worth of BTC over the last 6 days.

[Jesse Livermore 44]

5 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Saylor (MSTR) supposedly just bought another $4.6 billion worth of BTC over the last 6 days.

Was just about to post this.  

 

 

And after hours announces a convertible bond offering raising more. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13556]

Another sign that the Trump admin is going to be very very crypto friendly. You can disagree. You can hate Trump but all of the signs are pointing to a big jump in crypto adoption and potential in prices.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/18/trump-media-in-reported-talks-to-buy-crypto-trading-platform-bakkt-sending-shares-soaring.html

Headline: Trump Media in reported talks to buy crypto trading platform Bakkt, sending shares soaring

 

SIAP. as far as saylor/microstrategy, watch this hour of him talking last week, and you may be enticed to put your life savings in bitcoin.

 

[NYTransplant 148]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

I mean, I was posting even earlier in other threads with the same critiques you claim I'm "just now" coming up with. Even in this thread back in March I was talking about it's energy inefficiency.

There's been more substantive technical discussions, but that was probably a dozen socks ago for GRUhorn at this point and not on this sub forum. Sorry that this massively complex topic doesn't have one single thing to critique and distil down for you to read.

 

Please do lurk more, or just post on your main account instead of a sock next time.

Appreciate the advice. I'll hang out and lurk, while watching my "Ponzi scheme" asset continue to increase in value.

[gyroprotagonist 2595]

On 11/14/2024 at 10:10 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As a cautious bitcoin evangelist, I think stories from @CHIEF are still potentially possible if someone gets into bitcoin today.

Forgetting the per-bitcoin price, his friend basically turned $30K into $700K.  Is there still room for a >20x return if someone got into bitcoin today?  While it seem crazy to think that bitcoin could ever approach a $2m/bitcoin price, someone would have had previously said the same of $90K. 

I've seen estimates of the global gold market at $19T whereas bitcoin is at $1.75T today. I think there's a strong argument that bitcoin could catch if not surpass gold. That simple math takes btc to $1m each. Now if sovereign funds (middle east, norway, perhaps the US or EU) would get into the mix, no one has any idea what that would do it. 

Or bitcoin could be worth a few pennies next year. who knows. But if you invested $30K today, your max loss is 30K with an arguable potential gain of >10x. 

i just could not get into the full meme coin scene, but name your multiple x happening every week.  soooo much insider influencers dumping on their followers to get their bags sold, but some are still going really strong with 100x gains.  kinda like roulette.  put $1000 on something called $BONK earlier last week and it doubled in 3 days.  got my initial investment back and letting it ride.  SUI, INJ, SOL etc... have all 2-5x following BTCs 2x. 

said it before on this thread.  when BTC dominance fades and all that profit turns to altcoins, that's where some great 10+x money is to be made.  not saying BTC is done by any means.  im ~95% cash in right now. almost full send with minimal SL in place.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10476]

8 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

i just could not get into the full meme coin scene, but name your multiple x happening every week.  soooo much insider influencers dumping on their followers to get their bags sold, but some are still going really strong with 100x gains.  kinda like roulette.  put $1000 on something called $BONK earlier last week and it doubled in 3 days.  got my initial investment back and letting it ride.  SUI, INJ, SOL etc... have all 2-5x following BTCs 2x. 

said it before on this thread.  when BTC dominance fades and all that profit turns to altcoins, that's where some great 10+x money is to be made.  not saying BTC is done by any means.  im ~95% cash in right now. almost full send with minimal SL in place.

If you haven't watched Netflix - Bitconned.... it's an entertaining quick watch about an ico scam.  The firm's lawyer story arc needs its own documentary.

[Dahobbs 17818]

15 hours ago, NYTransplant said:

Appreciate the advice. I'll hang out and lurk, while watching my "Ponzi scheme" asset continue to increase in value.

That's the nature of ponzi schemes. They go up until they don't. I'm glad your speculative bet is paying off right now. I'd just suggest not letting it ride until snake eyes. 

P.S. You'd think the fact that every other major bitcoin player ends up in jail at some point might be a clue as to the type of people pushing it, but whatever. 

[Jesse Livermore 44]

16 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

If you haven't watched Netflix - Bitconned.... it's an entertaining quick watch about an ico scam.  The firm's lawyer story arc needs its own documentary.

As mentioned in the tweet I shared earlier, the same scammer that ran icos, ran defi scams last cycle, now doing meme coins. Unless you're very plugged into cryptotwitter or get pretty lucky it will be very hard to hit it really huge on altcoins. The best move for vast majority of investors is just to buy over time and hodl bitcoin for 4+years. It's the ultimate savings vehicle. Then when it 10x or more everyone says you got lucky. 

If you really want to lever up on something I would suggest MSTR in your brokerage account. 

 

17 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Apparently my 67 year old dad informed his Edward Jones advisor he wants to buy $380,000 of BTC but is pissed he can't do it on their platform, and has to go to Fidelity.

So guess I'm on the ship now

We will eventually reach the point where advisors are not doing their fiduciary duty by keeping clients out of bitcoin. May already be there.

Welcome aboard.

I tried to get my parents onboard for awhile. Dad blew me off. Mom is too risk averse, but she's been following the price. "Your bitcoin is at $90,0000". Yes ma'am.

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That's the nature of ponzi schemes. They go up until they don't. I'm glad your speculative bet is paying off right now. I'd just suggest not letting it ride until snake eyes. 

P.S. You'd think the fact that every other major bitcoin player ends up in jail at some point might be a clue as to the type of people pushing it, but whatever. 

Which major bitcoin players are in jail?

[Dahobbs 17818]

19 minutes ago, Jesse Livermore said:

Which major bitcoin players are in jail?

Seriously? FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried? Binance/Zhao? And then there are the regular arrests for folks associated with large bitcoin money laundering and scam operations.  

[Jesse Livermore 44]

16 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Seriously? FTX/Sam Bankman-Fried? Binance/Zhao? And then there are the regular arrests for folks associated with large bitcoin money laundering and scam operations.  

Those are offshore crypto scammers. I'm almost certain FTX actually held zero bitcoin. 

You have to realize bitcoin is separate from the broader crypto ecosystem. 

 

Oh and MSTR hits 400

[NYTransplant 148]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

That's the nature of ponzi schemes. They go up until they don't. I'm glad your speculative bet is paying off right now. I'd just suggest not letting it ride until snake eyes. 

P.S. You'd think the fact that every other major bitcoin player ends up in jail at some point might be a clue as to the type of people pushing it, but whatever. 

Appreciate the advice, I do plan to take some gains as the price skyrockets, but I won't sell it all.

I would like your thoughts on when a Ponzi scheme becomes "too big to fail?" Is it when governments start putting it on their balance sheet? Are fiat currencies Ponzi schemes? If not, why not?

"Every major bitcoin player" is a bit of an exaggeration. I'll admit, I got hosed in the Celsius deal, as I wasn't paying close enough attention. That was a tough hit to take, but I still believe in the fundamentals of Bitcoin. Thankfully, we've never had any bad actors in the realm of real investments. No companies, wealth managers, or investment bankers have ever stolen people's money or gone to jail. Guess I'll just stick to the safe investments.

[Dahobbs 17818]

26 minutes ago, NYTransplant said:

Appreciate the advice, I do plan to take some gains as the price skyrockets, but I won't sell it all.

I would like your thoughts on when a Ponzi scheme becomes "too big to fail?" Is it when governments start putting it on their balance sheet? Are fiat currencies Ponzi schemes? If not, why not?

"Every major bitcoin player" is a bit of an exaggeration. I'll admit, I got hosed in the Celsius deal, as I wasn't paying close enough attention. That was a tough hit to take, but I still believe in the fundamentals of Bitcoin. Thankfully, we've never had any bad actors in the realm of real investments. No companies, wealth managers, or investment bankers have ever stolen people's money or gone to jail. Guess I'll just stick to the safe investments.

I agree, "every major bitcoin player" would be an exaggeration. Fortunately, I said "every other major bitcoin player". 

Fiat-currencies aren't ponzi-schemes because they are used as currencies, not speculative investment holdings. No one is selling you on the idea that dollars are going to go up in value forever. No one is selling you on the idea that you'll get huge yearly gains by investing in dollars. That isn't why people hold them. For bitcoin, people want you to buy them so the value goes up. When the value goes up, they can sell for a profit (in dollars of course).  They want your new money to fund paying out previous investors like them. That's a ponzi-scheme. Bitcoin isn't used for real (non-illegal) transactions, not in any volume that matters. And never will be because it fucking sucks as a currency. It is volatile and unpredictable. Rapid inflation or deflation of a currency is bad. And bitcoin is quite literally setup to ensure that both will occur.

Bitcoin may continue to go up for a long time. People get excited about quick money, and that is what Bitcoin sells (or rather what people who promote bitcoin sell). The market can remain irrational for a long time, so I ain't betting against it. But I sure as fuck recognize it for what it is, and you should too. It is gamble, pure and simple.  At some point the house will win and someone will get left holding the e-bag. 

[Jesse Livermore 44]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That's a ponzi-scheme.

It's actually not. By that definition, any modern investment is a ponzi scheme. Everyone wants to sell something for more eventually. I would actually think bitcoin hodlers are more likely to hold their investments long term than other investors. What will I sell my bitcoin for? To move into another investment that won't perform as well? No, basically just for material purchases or maybe even expenses down the line when I'm retired because of it. 

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The market can remain irrational for a long time, so I ain't betting against it. But I sure as fuck recognize it for what it is, and you should too. It is gamble, pure and simple.  At some point the house will win and someone will get left holding the e-bag. 

How long does it take for it to switch to nocoiners being the irrational ones vs the market? We're going on 15 years now. The gamble now is willfully not participating when financial institutions around the world are ramping up their allocations. Nation states likely to follow.

Your reasoning is flawed, likely clouded by an inability to adapt your position when presented with new information.

[Jesse Livermore 44]

ETF options started trading today. I know very little about the effect of this, but of course the bulls say it's more fuel.

 

 

 

[Dahobbs 17818]

2 minutes ago, Jesse Livermore said:

It's actually not. By that definition, any modern investment is a ponzi scheme.

Tell me you don't know what a ponzi-scheme is. If I invest in Nvidia, it is because I expect Nvidia to make more money selling GPUs and related services. I'm wanting to own a piece (however small) of that business. When one "invests" in bitcoin, you're not doing so because you expect people to actually start using bitcoin as a currency. And you're not doing so because you expect bitcoin fundamentally will do something useful (it never will). You're doing so because you're hoping other people are drawn in the by allure of quick money and then you can sell your bitcoins to them at a higher price. That's it. That's the business. And, by definition, that is a ponzi-scheme. 

Quote

How long does it take for it to switch to nocoiners being the irrational ones vs the market? We're going on 15 years now. The gamble now is willfully not participating when financial institutions around the world are ramping up their allocations. Nation states likely to follow.

Your reasoning is flawed, likely clouded by an inability to adapt your position when presented with new information.

I had bitcoins before you did. I was mining them for fun early on. I just recognize bitcoin for what it is. Digital currency as a broader concept is different. Nation states will in fact adopt digital currency. And it will actually be useful. And it will not require proof of work bullshit. And eventually bitcoin will die or fade into irrelevance like many other crypto-currencies. But, until then, I absolutely agree the frenzy will continue. Gamble away. A lot of people will make a lot of money doing it. And then suddenly a lot of people will lose a lot of money. Just don't be the one caught holding the bag.  

[NYTransplant 148]

36 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I agree, "every major bitcoin player" would be an exaggeration. Fortunately, I said "every other major bitcoin player". 

Fiat-currencies aren't ponzi-schemes because they are used as currencies, not speculative investment holdings. No one is selling you on the idea that dollars are going to go up in value forever. No one is selling you on the idea that you'll get huge yearly gains by investing in dollars. That isn't why people hold them. For bitcoin, people want you to buy them so the value goes up. When the value goes up, they can sell for a profit (in dollars of course).  They want your new money to fund paying out previous investors like them. That's a ponzi-scheme. Bitcoin isn't used for real (non-illegal) transactions, not in any volume that matters. And never will be because it fucking sucks as a currency. It is volatile and unpredictable. Rapid inflation or deflation of a currency is bad. And bitcoin is quite literally setup to ensure that both will occur.

Bitcoin may continue to go up for a long time. People get excited about quick money, and that is what Bitcoin sells (or rather what people who promote bitcoin sell). The market can remain irrational for a long time, so I ain't betting against it. But I sure as fuck recognize it for what it is, and you should too. It is gamble, pure and simple.  At some point the house will win and someone will get left holding the e-bag. 

It's totally a gamble for sure, but there is a chance that it could have widespread adoption and become a real world asset. I think most people investing in it are assuming that risk. At the moment crypto makes up 5-10% of my portfolio. In my mind, that's a pretty solid risk/reward for something that could 10x or more.

If you want to discuss the real risk of BTC, I'm all for it. The BS arguments that Captainant has posed (other than the energy consumption) just shit up this thread. As stated earlier, leverage is no bigger of an issue than it is with any other asset at the moment, and I'd argue that BTC is less leveraged than most other assets. Edit: funny that they just announced options for IBIT.

The risk of a 51% move is complete bullshit, given the economics of supply demand. Hell, I'd welcome someone trying to make that play, as I can't even imagine what the price of BTC would be as a result of that play.

Fiat currencies are a Ponzi scheme. I take a dollar with the assumption that the next idiot will give me something in exchange for that dollar. Other than being a piece of paper with print on it, there is nothing backing it. Worse than that, the government has full authority to manipulate the supply of that piece of paper at will. 

Bitcoin is still in the very early stages of adoption, and thus extreme price fluctuations are to be expected as adoption increases. If universal adoption occurs, the price will stabilize (at a significantly higher level), if it doesn't it could go to $0. I believe there are strong signs for the former, and that's why I'm taking the risk that I am.

Edited November 19 by NYTransplant
Options update

[Jesse Livermore 44]

28 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

If I invest in Nvidia, it is because I expect Nvidia to make more money selling GPUs and related services. I'm wanting to own a piece (however small) of that business. When one "invests" in bitcoin, you're not doing so because you expect people to actually start using bitcoin as a currency.

I expect people to value more bitcoin as an asset and its currency usage to increase over time. You expect Nvidia value to go up as well, they aren't paying substantial dividends so that's the reason to buy it.

30 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I had bitcoins before you did. I was mining them for fun early on.

ahhh, here's the crux of it. You fumbled the bag at securing generational wealth, based on your own misjudgment. It will be very hard for you to reverse course on that. I understand.

32 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Nation states will in fact adopt digital currency.

Nation states will buy bitcoin as they buy gold.

32 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

And it will not require proof of work bullshit. And eventually bitcoin will die or fade into irrelevance like many other crypto-currencies.

Proof of work is one of the most important facets of bitcoin. The fact that you think it's bullshit is a window into why you sold so long ago after being early miner.

Look what happened to Ethereum after switching from Proof of work to Proof of stake. womp womp

35 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

But, until then, I absolutely agree the frenzy will continue. Gamble away. A lot of people will make a lot of money doing it. And then suddenly a lot of people will lose a lot of money. Just don't be the one caught holding the bag.  

Again, how many decades does the feeding frenzy have to last until people admit they were wrong?

 

[Captainant 27989]

37 minutes ago, NYTransplant said:

If you want to discuss the real risk of BTC, I'm all for it. The BS arguments that Captainant has posed (other than the energy consumption) just shit up this thread. As stated earlier, leverage is no bigger of an issue than it is with any other asset at the moment, and I'd argue that BTC is less leveraged than most other assets. Edit: funny that they just announced options for IBIT.

What's with all the hatred from a newbie? Jeeze lol, you're salty. But seriously, I've been going back and forth with GRUhorn on this topic for literal years now. Here's a comment of mine from 2022 that covers pretty much everything dahobbs touched on too

On 1/25/2022 at 5:13 PM, Captainant said:

(note, using BTC as shorthand for cryptos in general. I know it's somewhat limiting in the conversation, happy to get more specific if you'd prefer)

It's only a store of value because the currency is designed to be deflationary by definition. Each BTC becomes more valuable over time - you're disincentivized to actually use your BTC. I bought a video card with BTC to double my hashrate back in 2013. I would have been better off just HODLing and not using it as currency. The only reason its price goes up is because new money continues to come in and facilitate fractional exits for early adopters.

To frame it another way: if you don't plan to exit your BTC position, then it's not a store of value. If it's not a store of value, there's not any other functional use for it. It's strictly worse and less efficient than other record keeping methods, and there is no novel utility granted to it by being distributed.

Yeah, it's harder for the government to seize your BTC if you have absolutely ironclad opsec and have your extremely long seed phrase memorized. But let's be honest. More BTC has been lost/made unrecoverable from poor wallet management than from government seizure. 

On that note - for a very long time, the FBI was one of the largest HODLers of BTC thanks to the takedown of the Silk Road (RIP) and other similar marketplaces. It's just another asset that can be tracked, traced, stolen, seized, etc etc.

What is the marginal benefit of this over current systems? There's a constant theme of "this cannot be manipulated by the government" to the rhetoric, but BTC isn't something that you can just go and spend for good and services like normal currency. The transaction fees are too high, take too long to become confirmed, and the energy cost per transaction is outrageous. By design.

I appreciate how neat the technology is from a nerd perspective - it's what drew me in when I was learning academically what distributed systems are - but tech and novel features aren't intrinsically valuable. There has to be an actual utility and improvement over the existing status quo - and the fact that there will only ever be just under 21 million BTC mined is more of a "so what?" than some groundbreaking functionality.

  

On 1/25/2022 at 5:35 PM, Captainant said:

No doubt that it totally can be used to buy things - When I was mining, I bought video cards with BTC and even a Yeti mic that I eventually gave to immamac to help start the surly podcast lol. But I can tell you, those transactions fucking sucked ass. One of them took longer than anticipated to confirm - because there's no guarantee your block will get picked up - and eventually the merchant cancelled my order AND THEN my transaction confirmed. I was eventually able to get it all sorted out, but fucks sake I would've gotten it faster if I mailed them a fucking check. Not to mention that using a credit card or other typical payment methods have fees on the order of fractions of a cent or pennies - not dollars or tens of dollars (if you get unlucky with network traffic).

The other cryptos that do have faster transactions don't have the same acceptance that BTC/ETH do. And even so, damn near every other coin/token out there is indexed to BTC. For the foreseeable future and for no reason but dumb human convention and biases, bitcoin is going to continue to be the "reserve" coin of cryptos. It's the granddaddy and universally accepted crypto.

(Stealing from the much-referenced video's argument) NFT's and other altcoins are functionally just a mechanism to drive more usage and demand for BTC and ETH to pump in more new money to keep the line going up and fund exits for early adopters.

  

On 1/25/2022 at 8:52 PM, Captainant said:

Y'all. A smart contract is a max of 24K of data. NFTs are shitty smart contracts, yes, but the point is that paying $3-300 to immutably store 24 kilobytes of data is a shitty deal lol. Like on a pure nuts and bolts level, is pretty shitty.

There is not some magically wonderful functionality granted to cryptocurrency just because it's a distributed and decentralized ledger. That just makes it inefficient. It's durability against MiTM attacks is trivial, since that isn't the main mechanism of fraud. A hacker doesn't hack into your bank account, he gets you to share your password with him. Or in cryptospeak, your wallet won't get emptied because someone cracked SHA256, but it certainly can because someone wrote a worm into a smart contract and dropped it into your wallet that wasn't well secured.

Happy to return to past conversations if you don't prejudice my position or put words in my mouth.

Edited November 19 by Captainant