Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[52-80 19291]

Whatever you think of Bitcoin itself, MSTR is overvalued relative to its Bitcoin holding by a few times. Shorting a trending stock has uncapped risk, shorting call options is even more dangerous, and buying puts is expensive given its high volatility.

After the holiday exuberance, stocks generally drop or stay flat at the beginning year, going into tax season. 

You can buy a 400/370 put spread expiring Feb 21st for $20. If stock drops to $380 you'll break even. If it goes further down you'll get max profit of $30, for a 1:1.5 risk:reward.  (Completely ignoring the fact if it continues going up you'll lose everything).

Who wants to take a punt on it? 

 

[52-80 19291]

FYI the 'obvious' trade is to simultaneously long bitcoin and short mstr, in which you are betting on a narrowing of the price. But that hasnt worked as mstr kept diverging, and also most brokers wont cross-margin these 2 products so it would eat up lots of buying power in your account.

[52-80 19291]

[Snake Diggity 4646]

One of my favorite scenes in The Big Short is where the guy realizes there’s a mortgage bubble when the strippers are talking about how they’re invested in real estate.  
 

Saturday before the game we were eating at El Chile and my cousin mentioned bitcoin (as part of a larger conversation not really about crypto).  Our waiter, a 20 year old pothead type, comes running over and is like “you guys into bitcoin?  Great investment, I’m all in.”  Dude was frothing at the mouth to talk about this thing he was invested in that he had no fucking clue about how it actually works.  Bubble.  Who knows how long it will take to burst.  But it’s a bubble.

[StassneyHorn 6706]

Did you sleep through late 2017?

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

One of my favorite scenes in The Big Short is where the guy realizes there’s a mortgage bubble when the strippers are talking about how they’re invested in real estate.  
 

Saturday before the game we were eating at El Chile and my cousin mentioned bitcoin (as part of a larger conversation not really about crypto).  Our waiter, a 20 year old pothead type, comes running over and is like “you guys into bitcoin?  Great investment, I’m all in.”  Dude was frothing at the mouth to talk about this thing he was invested in that he had no fucking clue about how it actually works.  Bubble.  Who knows how long it will take to burst.  But it’s a bubble.

There have been signs it was time for a pullback. Cramer said to buy BTC. A good sign personally was P&L posting. 😝 

But if you think with all the tailwinds present that we’re done with this cycle then I’m afraid you’re mistaken. 
 

I actually sold some MSTR on this pullback. Hope it holds for a couple days so i can get in some LEAPS on it. We’ll see. 

 

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Did you sleep through late 2017?

it hasn’t even gotten crazy yet. 2025 will be a dream. 
 

 

[B00M 6605]

7 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

One of my favorite scenes in The Big Short is where the guy realizes there’s a mortgage bubble when the strippers are talking about how they’re invested in real estate.  
 

Saturday before the game we were eating at El Chile and my cousin mentioned bitcoin (as part of a larger conversation not really about crypto).  Our waiter, a 20 year old pothead type, comes running over and is like “you guys into bitcoin?  Great investment, I’m all in.”  Dude was frothing at the mouth to talk about this thing he was invested in that he had no fucking clue about how it actually works.  Bubble.  Who knows how long it will take to burst.  But it’s a bubble.

I mean if this current cycle follows the others, yes, this is the bubble phase. It may go significantly higher before it deflates to something like $75k or even $50k, but then it will slowly claw its way back up. I’d rather have precious metals as a currency hedge than bitcoin on a cold wallet, but it’s easy enough to buy/sell bitcoin in ETF form with simpler taxes than buying and selling BTC itself. 

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

32 minutes ago, B00M said:

I’d rather have precious metals as a currency hedge than bitcoin on a cold wallet

Why?

[B00M 6605]

3 hours ago, Distinguished Gentleman said:

Why?

Because one of these things can genuinely go to zero. 

[nycHorn 3091]

Maybe some of your crypto old timers can shed some light here.
I’ve been dabbling since mid 2016 and some of the old exchanges I used aren’t around anymore - the old Binance, Bitrex, etc..places that often used a VPN to access.
How would I go about showing my cost basis now? I tried logging into Binance US but it doesn’t have any of my transactions.

[bernorange 8377]

Quote

...
Over the past two days, Glassnode data shows that short-term holders or those that have held bitcoin for less than 155 days, have sent $7.8 billion or 83,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss over the past two days.

In notional terms, this is the highest number on record. When this cohort tends to send $2 billion or more worth of tokens to exchanges, at a loss, it generally marks a local bottom.
...

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/27/short-term-bitcoin-holders-have-moved-nearly-8-b-worth-of-btc-to-exchanges-signaling-price-bottom-van-straten

 

[bernorange 8377]

@nycHorn- if I'm understanding you correctly, you do not have, and have no way of obtaining, the transaction history for the defunct or unavailable exchanges.  I assume you, at some point, moved whatever BTC balance you held on the exchanges to a cold storage wallet?  If so, you at least have a record of the dates when the BTC arrived in your cold storage wallet and you can look up the price of BTC at those times.  

[nycHorn 3091]

[mention=159]nycHorn[/mention]- if I'm understanding you correctly, you do not have, and have no way of obtaining, the transaction history for the defunct or unavailable exchanges.  I assume you, at some point, moved whatever BTC balance you held on the exchanges to a cold storage wallet?  If so, you at least have a record of the dates when the BTC arrived in your cold storage wallet and you can look up the price of BTC at those times.  

Yes, exactly. It’s on a ledger. I’ve never sold and never had to pay taxes on crypto but I’m now wondering when I do, how do I prove my cost basis.
I moved everything to Coinbase for awhile then maybe 4-5 years ago moved to the cold storage.

[bernorange 8377]

This isn't tax or financial advice, but it seems to me that you can only prove ownership starting from when you took custody of the BTC (when you moved everything to Coinbase I suppose).

[Parliament 14416]

21 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

One of my favorite scenes in The Big Short is where the guy realizes there’s a mortgage bubble when the strippers are talking about how they’re invested in real estate.  
 

Saturday before the game we were eating at El Chile and my cousin mentioned bitcoin (as part of a larger conversation not really about crypto).  Our waiter, a 20 year old pothead type, comes running over and is like “you guys into bitcoin?  Great investment, I’m all in.”  Dude was frothing at the mouth to talk about this thing he was invested in that he had no fucking clue about how it actually works.  Bubble.  Who knows how long it will take to burst.  But it’s a bubble.

Back on June of 20…23?  (six months before FTX blew up) my mother (retired banker) called me.  

Mom: “I was watching the Today Show and they were talking about this “crypto…currency.”  What is it?

Me: “It’s a prop bet between strangers, all logged on a computer server somewhere.”

Mom: “…so it’s all bullshit.”

Me: “Yes”

Mom:  “Good talk.”

Pretty sure I saved my inheritance with that.

Edited November 27 by Parliament

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

3 hours ago, nycHorn said:

Maybe some of your crypto old timers can shed some light here.
I’ve been dabbling since mid 2016 and some of the old exchanges I used aren’t around anymore - the old Binance, Bitrex, etc..places that often used a VPN to access.
How would I go about showing my cost basis now? I tried logging into Binance US but it doesn’t have any of my transactions.

I’m not sure of the answer here, but I bet it’s not uncommon. If you’re a twitter user it seems like that’s something searchable or you could ask a crypto tax person directly and get a general response. 

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

But if you bought in 2016 then it’s almost all cap gains anyway. 
 

here you go 
 

Try @cryptotaxgirl 

Edited November 27 by Distinguished Gentleman

[52-80 19291]

4 hours ago, nycHorn said:

How would I go about showing my cost basis now? I tried logging into Binance US but it doesn’t have any of my transactions.

Non-pro tip: if you dont know the cost basis, neither will the IRS

[nycHorn 3091]

Non-pro tip: if you dont know the cost basis, neither will the IRS

[Nice Guy Eddie 13569]

7 hours ago, nycHorn said:

Maybe some of your crypto old timers can shed some light here.
I’ve been dabbling since mid 2016 and some of the old exchanges I used aren’t around anymore - the old Binance, Bitrex, etc..places that often used a VPN to access.
How would I go about showing my cost basis now? I tried logging into Binance US but it doesn’t have any of my transactions.

Many of those sites no longer allow US users to log onto their accounts. And the account may not longer exist but you can attempt to log on. At one point, they advised customers to download reports but that was years ago.

If you know the date that you purchased or roughly the month, you should be able to get a decent idea about the cost on coinmarketcap.

[Blotto 23757]

6 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Non-pro tip: if you dont know the cost basis, neither will the IRS

I don't trade my crypto at all. It was acquired on Coinbase Pro, and at some point  Coinbase deactivated my coinbase pro account and moved it alll back into my coinbase account.  Interestingly, the cost basis that Coinbase shows is incorrect (in my favor). I'm pretty sure the cost basis is the price of BTC and ETH at the time they made that switch. So what they show as a cost basis of $13K should be around $7K, but I didnt keep detailed records of my buy prices, because thats what I fucking relied on coinbase for. I assume however that if I ever sell on Coinbase, the government will get a  transaction record showing the same cost basis coinbase is showing me, and uncle sam will be none the wiser. Thats my hope anyway. In reality, I expect the pyramid to collapse before I ever exit the position. Just holding what I bought in 2016-2017, with no real exit strategy.

Edited November 27 by Blotto

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2759]

Same happened to me.
My cost basis is maybe $4k but that’s not what it shows on Coinbase.

[52-80 19291]

bitcoiners showing up at the family thanksgiving dinner:

[bluto 4947]

On 11/27/2024 at 5:11 PM, Blotto said:

I don't trade my crypto at all. It was acquired on Coinbase Pro, and at some point  Coinbase deactivated my coinbase pro account and moved it alll back into my coinbase account.  Interestingly, the cost basis that Coinbase shows is incorrect (in my favor). I'm pretty sure the cost basis is the price of BTC and ETH at the time they made that switch. So what they show as a cost basis of $13K should be around $7K, but I didnt keep detailed records of my buy prices, because thats what I fucking relied on coinbase for. I assume however that if I ever sell on Coinbase, the government will get a  transaction record showing the same cost basis coinbase is showing me, and uncle sam will be none the wiser. Thats my hope anyway. In reality, I expect the pyramid to collapse before I ever exit the position. Just holding what I bought in 2016-2017, with no real exit strategy.

 

On 11/27/2024 at 6:47 PM, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Same happened to me.
My cost basis is maybe $4k but that’s not what it shows on Coinbase.

Similar situation… but I dug into it. If you go into your Coinbase acct and go into settings -> taxes > documents > Coinbase pro statements 

 

then you should be able to piece it all together.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13569]

Whew. The btc recession of Nov 25-29 is over. Until the next one.

[ajax 2637]

A few months back my wife told me some christian Nostradamus said that XRP would go way up and she convinced me to buy a few grand at $0.50.

I have no idea what's driving it but I'm not unhappy 

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

22 minutes ago, ajax said:

A few months back my wife told me some christian Nostradamus said that XRP would go way up and she convinced me to buy a few grand at $0.50.

I have no idea what's driving it but I'm not unhappy 

You should sell. XRP has a history of pumping and fading.

[bernorange 8377]

XRP likely to continue pumping until shortly after the final SEC lawsuit is dropped.  After that, it's a crapshoot IMO.

[Tom 2960]

46 minutes ago, Distinguished Gentleman said:

You should sell. XRP has a history of pumping and fading.

@ajax You should not listen to BTC maximalists.  XRP has consistently been a top 3 coin in market cap that tumbled down the top 10 because of the lawsuit filed in December 2020.  The price tanked down to something like 20 cents and has never been able to participate fully in bull runs for the past four years because it was pulled off of exchanges and had an SEC lawsuit looming over its head.  
 

This current run has been sparked by the news of the SEC chairman getting replaced, the expectation that the appeal is going to go away, as well as Robinhood adding it back on their exchange, followed by FOMO.  The SEC appeal is still lingering, so I would hold cautiously but not sell.  There will be a hard pullback at some point like all coins get, but unless a new lawsuit is filed it’s not crashing all the way back down.  Timing the market, however, is a bitch.  

And yes, I’m holding a pretty good sized bag too.

Edited Monday at 04:15 PM by Tom

[bernorange 8377]

 

[Captainant 28021]

Hot new token about to hit!

https://cryptobriefing.com/enron-crypto-expansion/

 

[52-80 19291]

On 11/28/2024 at 12:11 AM, Blotto said:

I don't trade my crypto at all. It was acquired on Coinbase Pro, and at some point  Coinbase deactivated my coinbase pro account and moved it alll back into my coinbase account.  Interestingly, the cost basis that Coinbase shows is incorrect (in my favor). I'm pretty sure the cost basis is the price of BTC and ETH at the time they made that switch. So what they show as a cost basis of $13K should be around $7K, but I didnt keep detailed records of my buy prices, because thats what I fucking relied on coinbase for. I assume however that if I ever sell on Coinbase, the government will get a  transaction record showing the same cost basis coinbase is showing me, and uncle sam will be none the wiser. Thats my hope anyway. In reality, I expect the pyramid to collapse before I ever exit the position. Just holding what I bought in 2016-2017, with no real exit strategy.

Actually i changed my mind. You should tell the IRS your cost basis was $300k/btc so you can claim a capital loss deduction. 

[bernorange 8377]

Quote

...
“The latest spike in whale-to-exchange activity coincides with XRP reaching a local price of around $2.3. This could indicate whales preparing for potential profit-taking or increased market activity,” Woominkyu added.
...

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/03/xrp-records-highest-ever-whale-activity-as-7-day-price-gains-near-100

XRP whales have been bag holders for years as the SEC lawsuits against Ripple (XRP) have dragged on and on (and kept XRP locked in the doldrums). I'm quite sure there are many of them eager to finally exit their positions in spite of the ultra bullish nonsense they spout on X.

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

On 12/2/2024 at 10:16 AM, bernorange said:

 

Talk about a sell the news item. There is not large institutional desire to hold xrp. Look at eth since ETF launch. Hard to imagine etf helping xrp.

4 hours ago, bernorange said:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/12/03/xrp-records-highest-ever-whale-activity-as-7-day-price-gains-near-100

XRP whales have been bag holders for years as the SEC lawsuits against Ripple (XRP) have dragged on and on (and kept XRP locked in the doldrums). I'm quite sure there are many of them eager to finally exit their positions in spite of the ultra bullish nonsense they spout on X.

For sure.

[Distinguished Gentleman 4]

On 12/2/2024 at 10:14 AM, Tom said:

@ajax You should not listen to BTC maximalists.  XRP has consistently been a top 3 coin in market cap that tumbled down the top 10 because of the lawsuit filed in December 2020.  The price tanked down to something like 20 cents and has never been able to participate fully in bull runs for the past four years because it was pulled off of exchanges and had an SEC lawsuit looming over its head.  
 

This current run has been sparked by the news of the SEC chairman getting replaced, the expectation that the appeal is going to go away, as well as Robinhood adding it back on their exchange, followed by FOMO.  The SEC appeal is still lingering, so I would hold cautiously but not sell.  There will be a hard pullback at some point like all coins get, but unless a new lawsuit is filed it’s not crashing all the way back down.  Timing the market, however, is a bitch.  

And yes, I’m holding a pretty good sized bag too.

you're welcome to do what you want, but look at the xrp/btc chart over time. not good. 

In a ecosystem infested with scams, ripple/xrp is near the top. have dumped coins on retail for years. Good luck.

 

 

[bernorange 8377]

About XRP:

Full thread:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1863629746744988152.html

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13569]

I'm seeing some of my old shit coins making a strong comeback. Vechain (VET) up 260% over the last month. I don’t have lambo money in any of them but I need to figure out how to transfer coins out of these wallets today.

not sure what to think of zombie coins coming back to life. I can understand and simultaneously laugh at brand new meme coin pumping and dumping. The originators are making a quick buck. But it’s not as easy to move a coin that went live 2017 if not earlier. Are we back to alt coin season?

[Captainant 28021]

7 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

not sure what to think of zombie coins coming back to life. I can understand and simultaneously laugh at brand new meme coin pumping and dumping. The originators are making a quick buck. But it’s not as easy to move a coin that went live 2017 if not earlier. Are we back to alt coin season?

Dumb money is back on the menu, boys! Quick, dump your worthless crap on all the rubes!

[bernorange 8377]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

... Are we back to alt coin season?

When you have days where you check CMC and BTC is the only red on the screen, I'd say yes.  CMC shows over the last 30 days (rounded):

 

BTC - 39%

ETH - 50%

XRP - 398%

SOL - 41%

ADA - 260%

AVAX - 129%

DOT - 194%

HBAR - 621%

SUI - 93%

POL - 140%

ATOM - 163%

EGLD - 146%

I just picked some coins that I keep tabs on.  Aside from stablecoins, most everything is outperforming BTC lately.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13569]

Lol. When these coins start pumping: