Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[GRHorn 105]

26 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

China is always going to push back. Don’t they restrict many citizens to only invest in land or buildings. Hence the empty cities.

my guess is that nothing has changed in China with this announcement but the rest of the world is freaking out. 

It’s like the 3rd time China has “banned” Bitcoin. 

 

16 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol at the sunshine pumpers.  20k or 100k first?  I’d bet on 20.   

I’ll bet you a steak dinner at Bob’s in Dallas next Ou weekend. 😆 

[XYZ 2154]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

DeFi has created a risk in that when major drops occur, it can create a cascading effect of margin calls on the collateralized loans. Smart contracts start to automatically dump the loan collateral on the defi exchanges, which pushes the market down even that much more.  There isn't a call or email asking to add to more collateral. It just happens.  And one level of these events can trigger the next. 

I imagine there are DeFi players that not only experienced the price drop like everyone, they also lost decent percentages of their holdings. One big unknown is how much exposure the exchanges or interest-paying banks have to these events.

WTF is “DeFi”?

[The Royal We 3067]

3 minutes ago, XYZ said:

WTF is “DeFi”?

https://lmgtfy.app/?q=defi+

[GRHorn 105]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

DeFi has created a risk in that when major drops occur, it can create a cascading effect of margin calls on the collateralized loans. Smart contracts start to automatically dump the loan collateral on the defi exchanges, which pushes the market down even that much more.  There isn't a call or email asking to add to more collateral. It just happens.  And one level of these events can trigger the next. 

I imagine there are DeFi players that not only experienced the price drop like everyone, they also lost decent percentages of their holdings. One big unknown is how much exposure the exchanges or interest-paying banks have to these events.

EDIT: I'm interested in understanding why MATIC didn't dump as hard. A 11% drop looks good this morning. I wonder if so much of their value is locked up outside of exchanges that owners couldn't easily sell. But that could also create the potential of a larger drop with the limited supply on exchanges. 

Excellent point on the capital locked up in defi. 
 

To me, there’s a couple big questions. First, was 64K really the top this time? It would be unusual in that there wasn’t crazy volume or volatility at the top like you see with asset bubbles. It felt to me like a lot of coordinated fud when market was a bit tired. Big market players are known for doing that to keep prices down while they enter. I’ll be interested to the read the breakdowns of the on chain data.

42 minutes ago, XYZ said:

If it was the top, are we really entering a two year bear market? Or has the change in market participants blunted the 4 year halving cycle? 
 

44 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Ah, yes, “off-chain” transactions. That sounds safe.

What specifically concerns you about off chain transactions?

[XYZ 2154]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

What specifically concerns you about off chain transactions?

Nothing. That’s why I said it sounds safe.

[GRHorn 105]

2 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Nothing. That’s why I said it sounds safe.

Idontbelieveyou.gif

 

[bernorange 8359]

9 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

... Big market players are known for doing that to keep prices down while they enter. I’ll be interested to the read the breakdowns of the on chain data. ...

I saw this report early this morning:

Quote

... the bearish sentiment on May 17 lasted for a very short period, as whales finally decided it was time to buy the dip.

The top traders' long-to-short indicator is calculated using clients' consolidated positions, including margin, perpetual and futures contracts. This metric provides a broader view of the professional traders' effective net position by gathering data from multiple markets.

Top traders on OKEx moved from a 1.62 long-to-short ratio on May 16 to a 2.74 peak as Bitcoin tested the $43,000 support in the early hours of May 17. This data indicates that whales and market makers had long positions almost three times larger than shorts, which is very uncommon.
...
Although it might be too soon to declare that the correction phase has ended, there seems to be enough evidence regarding the futures premium bottoming and whales' intense buying activity below $43,000.

If history repeats and a 95% rally follows suit, Bitcoin could reach $83,000 in mid-June.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/83k-bitcoin-price-in-the-cards-after-data-shows-btc-whales-bought-the-dip

And I thought, "OK, we'll see."

 

 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10227]

Man costly on ETH right now....

[bernorange 8359]

Those look like FedEx next day service level prices.

[GRHorn 105]

1 minute ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Man costly on ETH right now....

This could be due to those forced liquidations Eddie was talking about. It could congest the system pretty quickly. 

[lmao 178]

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING

[lmao 178]

39 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s like the 3rd time China has “banned” Bitcoin. 

 

I’ll bet you a steak dinner at Bob’s in Dallas next Ou weekend. 😆 

And what happened after their ban? Do they 'unban' it?

[XYZ 2154]

4 minutes ago, lmao said:

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING

It’s difficult to take your post seriously when your username is “lmao”.

[ChiTownDoc 21143]

40 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s like the 3rd time China has “banned” Bitcoin. 

 

I’ll bet you a steak dinner at Bob’s in Dallas next Ou weekend. 😆 

I have a feeling it’s not touching either lol.  But happy to take the bet!

[Trey3216 15344]

15 minutes ago, lmao said:

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING

 

This

 

and this

 

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by Trey3216

[bernorange 8359]

4 minutes ago, lmao said:

And what happened after their ban? Do they 'unban' it?

Quote

... China issued a new wave of restrictions clamping down on its use on Tuesday. The move, which also affects all other cryptocurrencies, means financial institutions and payment companies are unable to provide cryptocurrency services, such as transactions, in China.
...
Back in 2017 China closed down domestic cryptocurrency exchanges, and in 2019 the People's Bank of China said it would block access to exchanges based in other countries too.
...

https://www.newsweek.com/china-ban-crypto-bitcoin-crash-cryptocurrencies-crypto-crackdown-explained-1592747

I don't know how much practical effect the measures have.  It looks like where there is a will, there is a way:

https://www.basedbachelor.com/bitcoin/buying-bitcoin-in-china/

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

If China really wanted to eliminate crypto, why haven't they eliminated crypto mining operations? Those operations are using state resources (electricity), human work, invested capital in equipment. The ops create crypto for local companies that have to sell or distribute the coins in some fashion.  But since they don't ban mining, I don't know what to think about their crypto ban.

How are the mining companies disposing of their mined crypto? 

@Trey3216 don't quote Tim Pool. He's a bomb-throwing, conspiracy loving, fake libertarian. 

 

[Trey3216 15344]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If China really wanted to eliminate crypto, why haven't they eliminated crypto mining operations? Those operations are using state resources (electricity), human work, invested capital in equipment. The ops create crypto for local companies that have to sell or distribute the coins in some fashion.  But since they don't ban mining, I don't know what to think about their crypto ban.

How are the mining companies disposing of their mined crypto? 

@Trey3216 don't quote Tim Pool. He's a bomb-throwing, conspiracy loving, fake libertarian. 

 

I don't know the guy, but he's not necessarily wrong about market operations in terms of what he's saying in that tweet.   

[ChiTownDoc 21143]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If China really wanted to eliminate crypto, why haven't they eliminated crypto mining operations? Those operations are using state resources (electricity), human work, invested capital in equipment. The ops create crypto for local companies that have to sell or distribute the coins in some fashion.  But since they don't ban mining, I don't know what to think about their crypto ban.

How are the mining companies disposing of their mined crypto? 

@Trey3216 don't quote Tim Pool. He's a bomb-throwing, conspiracy loving, fake libertarian. 

 

Let them mine it all then confiscate it.  Crater the price further.  Buy up billions worth on the cheap...profit.  

[washparkhorn 9939]

China wants to build it's own digital currency - one where they can track their citizens. (social credit system in China).

China Internet Finance Association, China Banking Association and China Payment and Clearing Association statement yesterday:

"Financial institutions, payment institutions and other member units must earnestly strengthen their social responsibilities. They must not use virtual currency to price products and services, underwrite insurance businesses related to virtual currencies or include virtual currencies in the scope of insurance liability, and must not directly or indirectly provide customers with other services.

"Services related to virtual currency, including but not limited to: providing customers with virtual currency registration, trading, clearing, settlement and other services; accepting virtual currency or using virtual currency as a payment and settlement tool; developing virtual currency exchange services with RMB and foreign currencies; Develop virtual currency storage, custody, mortgage and other businesses; issue financial products related to virtual currency; use virtual currency as investment targets for trusts, funds, etc."

https://www.reuters.com/business/bitcoin-slides-below-40000-ether-tumbles-2021-05-19/

 

[lmao 178]

18 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I don't know the guy, but he's not necessarily wrong about market operations in terms of what he's saying in that tweet.   

He's a clown but what he posted sounds about right.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

From my understanding, China is already heavy into cashless transactions especially in the cities and with younger people. They basically pay for everything with a Venmo type app that uses QR codes and doubles (triples?) as a messaging app and social media. You know the govt likes that. Let's package up your communication and money into 1 app to make govt monitoring easy for us.  

A transition to a smart contract, blockchain ledger will be seamless for the average citizen. To them, it won't be a change.

[GRHorn 105]

35 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

China wants to build it's own digital currency - one where they can track their citizens. (social credit system in China).

China Internet Finance Association, China Banking Association and China Payment and Clearing Association statement yesterday:

"Financial institutions, payment institutions and other member units must earnestly strengthen their social responsibilities. They must not use virtual currency to price products and services, underwrite insurance businesses related to virtual currencies or include virtual currencies in the scope of insurance liability, and must not directly or indirectly provide customers with other services.

"Services related to virtual currency, including but not limited to: providing customers with virtual currency registration, trading, clearing, settlement and other services; accepting virtual currency or using virtual currency as a payment and settlement tool; developing virtual currency exchange services with RMB and foreign currencies; Develop virtual currency storage, custody, mortgage and other businesses; issue financial products related to virtual currency; use virtual currency as investment targets for trusts, funds, etc."

https://www.reuters.com/business/bitcoin-slides-below-40000-ether-tumbles-2021-05-19/

 

I think you’re correct in that China saw it as a good time to pile on Bitcoin specifically. They see it as competition for their cbdc. But as I’ve said before in actuality it’s not. China’s digital yuan will be censorable, confiscatable, with no limits on supply. Bitcoin is none of those things. That’s what makes it unique and interesting.  

[Assman 1830]

Can't believe ADA was $1.05 this morning and I couldn't buy.  Fuck you Coinbase.

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

I saw this report early this morning:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/83k-bitcoin-price-in-the-cards-after-data-shows-btc-whales-bought-the-dip

And I thought, "OK, we'll see."

 

 

 

[ajax 2606]

Here's an interesting observation - when BTC dropped from nearly 10k to 5.3k back in Feb/March 2020 there were barely any posts in this thread. There's like a 2 week gap between posts.

Compared to the posts during this drop.

 

 

 

[bernorange 8359]

5 minutes ago, ajax said:

Here's an interesting observation - when BTC dropped from nearly 10k to 5.3k back in Feb/March 2020 there were barely any posts in this thread. There's like a 2 week gap between posts.

Compared to the posts during this drop.

I was watching Bloomberg Markets while eating lunch just now.  They were talking crypto for practically the entire 45 minutes or so that I was watching.  I've never seen that channel devote so much airtime to a single story.

They had an analyst from some crypto company on who mentioned that the lion's share of the selling over the last two days or so happened from people/accounts (relatively) new to the market.  Details weren't provided, but I assume it's measured/reported by the exchanges. 

[GRHorn 105]

6 minutes ago, bernorange said:

I was watching Bloomberg Markets while eating lunch just now.  They were talking crypto for practically the entire 45 minutes or so that I was watching.  I've never seen that channel devote so much airtime to a single story.

They had an analyst from some crypto company on who mentioned that the lion's share of the selling over the last two days or so happened from people/accounts (relatively) new to the market.  Details weren't provided, but I assume it's measured/reported by the exchanges. 

See my post above. They can see the age of coins moving to exchanges. 

[ajax 2606]

This brings back memories of when I bought BTC at 2k and kept buying up to 12k. I was ecstatic when it hit 20k. Then it fell all the way back down to 3k and I thought it would go down to zero.

Having gone through that, this doesn't feel so bad. I've never sold. I probably should have taken some profits but I'm taking the Michael Saylor approach.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

BTC has already hit 40K again. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 45K in the next day or two. Or 30K.  Forget diamond hands, you need a diamond stomach to be long on crypto.  "Look I just lost 6 months of my salary in the last 2 hours. oh well. Anyone else want to go on a starbucks run with me?"

[GRHorn 105]

42 minutes ago, ajax said:

This brings back memories of when I bought BTC at 2k and kept buying up to 12k. I was ecstatic when it hit 20k. Then it fell all the way back down to 3k and I thought it would go down to zero.

Having gone through that, this doesn't feel so bad. I've never sold. I probably should have taken some profits but I'm taking the Michael Saylor approach.

Once you’ve been through one cycle it almost becomes something you’re numb to, until the very end. Today definitely felt like March 2020 to me. Like oh damn oh damn oh damn then the bids come in. It’s crazy how even when you have a lot of conviction the human psychology comes out during the dumps (and pumps).

This is Bitcoin specific, but if you’re really into it, learning about it and following it for a full cycle you understand that this isn’t going away. There’s going to be a bid under it. The network and tech is too groundbreaking and resilient to just vanish. This may be premature, but even today it looks like we established a pretty hard floor of $30k BTC. That’s pretty awesome. There’s lots of possibilities still ahead. 

[elfenix 34223]

damn everything took a giant shit this morning

 

[bernorange 8359]

25 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

... Forget diamond hands, you need a diamond stomach to be long on crypto. 

The market can move so fast.  Especially now that so many new folks are participating.  DOGE, ICP and others had market caps explode multiple billions in a day.  Blink and you miss it. 

I didn't give crypto a lot of thought until recently.  The more I have read about entire cottage industries developing on top of some alts, the more I think they here for the long term.  Prices will recover.

I feel a little bit better about holding for the recovery knowing my holdings are passively growing the whole time via staking or similar (Voyager 'interest').

 

[GRHorn 105]

Another post mortem

 

 

 

[Queen Bitch 1692]

 

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, Queen Bitch said:

 

This is pretty funny to me.  So let’s say you want to send 100k somewhere. Now you send 9k in 11 different transactions. The whole system is permissionless. These silly rules they’re trying to apply from legacy systems don’t really work.  
 

I guess they could have exchanges and other custodians enforce these limits over specific timeframes. Just another example of why it makes sense to move your coins into your own custody. 

Edited May 20, 2021 by GRHorn

[GRHorn 105]

Good article on the environmental impact of Bitcoin. 

 

[GRHorn 105]

9 hours ago, Queen Bitch said:

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

10 hours ago, Queen Bitch said:

 

I believe Treasury is calling for similar rules as if you used 10k in cash in a transaction with a business. They want the business to report it.

[bernorange 8359]

Quote

Ethereum will be completing the transition to Proof-of-Stake in the upcoming months ...
...
While Ethereum continues to use PoW for now, that won’t be the case for much longer. In the past few weeks, we have seen the emergence of the first testnets for The Merge, the name given to the moment Ethereum switches to from PoW to PoS. Several teams of engineers are working overtime to ensure that The Merge arrives as soon as possible, and without compromising on safety.
...

https://blog.ethereum.org/2021/05/18/country-power-no-more/

I had read some reports on various crypto news sites that included comments from one dev or another, but I discovered this morning that they apparently have an official blog.  Sounds like ETH1->ETH2 is on track.

[bernorange 8359]

Quote

In what could be a major development, the Indian government is rethinking its stance on the country’s fledgling but promising crypto industry. Official sources have informally confirmed that the government is planning to set up a new committee to study the latest developments in the field of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology and suggest proper regulations.

As per a report in The Economic Times, Minister of State for Finance and Corporate Affairs Anurag Thakur has been meeting various stakeholders from the crypto industry in India over the past few weeks. The finance ministry was also closely watching the growing interest of retail investors in crypto assets. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to receive the preliminary report on the deliberations so far by the end of this month when a formal decision to institute the panel is likely to be taken.

The change in the government’s views on cryptocurrencies is a result of growing realization within the government that the previous panel led by former finance secretary Subhash Garg is outdated and obsolete. This panel in 2019 had recommended a blanket ban on cryptocurrencies in India.

Based on the recommendations of this panel, the government had prepared a bill — the Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill, 2021 — that aimed to ban all cryptocurrencies in India and provide regulatory frameworks for the launch of an official altcoin supported by India’s central bank, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The bill was to be tabled in the Indian Parliament in February this year but the government deferred the move, ostensibly, because of the rising number of Covid-19 cases in the second wave of the pandemic.

As per reports, the new panel will study the possible use cases of blockchain and regulations for cryptocurrencies as stores of value rather than currencies. It may also look at the feasibility of RBI launching its digital coin.
...

Reacting to the developments, Nischal Shetty, CEO of Binance-owned Indian crypto exchange WazirX tweeted: “Finally India plans to regulate & not ban Crypto. 2019 bill is outdated. It’s amazing to see progressive thought from our Government.”

https://zycrypto.com/india-rethinking-anti-crypto-stance-likely-to-set-up-panel-to-suggest-regulations/

India is currently setting global records for daily Covid19 deaths.  It's really sad what's happening over there in that respect.  Still, the news above could spur a lot of investment in cryptos.

[TonyTexas 10506]

13 hours ago, GRHorn said:

 

The IRS wanting its share doesn’t validate shit. 
 

Quote

IRS Publication 17, which helps taxpayers determine how to report their income, is extremely detailed. Its section on “Other Income” has some of the most fascinating sorts of income you are obligated to report. Here are three that stand out:

Bribes. If you receive a bribe, include it in your income.

Illegal activities. Income from illegal activities, such as money from dealing illegal drugs, must be included in your income on Form 1040, line 21, or on Schedule C or Schedule C-EZ (Form 1040) if from your self-employment activity.

Stolen property. If you steal property, you must report its fair market value in your income in the year you steal it unless in the same year, you return it to its rightful owner.

 

 

[Trey3216 15344]

20 hours ago, GRHorn said:

This is pretty funny to me.  So let’s say you want to send 100k somewhere. Now you send 9k in 11 different transactions. The whole system is permissionless. These silly rules they’re trying to apply from legacy systems don’t really work.  
 

I guess they could have exchanges and other custodians enforce these limits over specific timeframes. Just another example of why it makes sense to move your coins into your own custody. 

You'll get flagged by the banking system for "multiple similar transactions" and reported.  That's how they get you.  Same as they do for money laundering hits.  

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You'll get flagged by the banking system for "multiple similar transactions" and reported.  That's how they get you.  Same as they do for money laundering hits.  

I understand. Same standard as cash. But if you hold your own coins then voila. 

[LABEVO 928]

 

[GRHorn 105]

9 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

China leaving Bitcoin mining would be incredibly bullish longer term. Would be big hit on both ESG fud and the “national security” fud. 
 

Rumors of China whale selling less so, especially short term, but more coins in westerners hands are positive. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

I find this recent crash a big success for DeFi loans and risk management. 

Individuals or groups borrowed money from other crypto holders, via DeFi sites, so they could buy more crypto. When the crash occurred, I imagine many of these borrowers faced margin calls, and they were most likely automatically liquidated. Their collateral was sold off, and quite likely at very low prices. Yes, this creates even more downward pressure on the prices but it also offers opportunities for people that want to speculate in the other.

I do think that over-sized incentives in both directions creates too much volatility but I think this will smooth out over time as there is more money in DeFi and crypto itself.

[bernorange 8359]

200,000 BTC @ $38,000 = $7.6B

BTC market cap currently $700.6B

That's ~1% of the total market cap.

1) How is a Chinese national going to liquidate 200K BTC with restrictions in place?  I'm guessing offshore exchange and sold for currency other than RMB/CNY.

2) Will the whale be able to escape China to enjoy that wealth?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13508]

Even if this a true story about an unnamed Chinese billionaire wanting to sell 7B in bitcoin, the market can absorb it. The 24h market for bitcoin shows $72b in transactions. I suppose if he/she attempted to dump $7B at once, it would cause an immediate plummet but I also doubt this would happen in that manner.

Regardless I think it's a plus if we remove someone from owning greater than 1% of the bitcoins in circulation. It's better for the market to spread that around with more btc owners.

[Tailgate 3021]

Buying more BTC