Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[midtown 3,355]

Another one gone.. With bitcoin under 16k I'm guessing the snow ball is starting to form

[Stella Link 535]

6 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Incorrect. Beanie Babies had at least some real value. 

That is correct.  Cloth and beans.....at least you could eat the beans when you went broke....

[MAUFRAIS 6,740]

This is our hill. And these are our beans.

[Humble Beast 258]

53 minutes ago, midtown said:

Another one gone.. With bitcoin under 16k I'm guessing the snow ball is starting to form

I put another drop in the bucket here. 

[Firemans4Horn 18,533]

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust now trading at a 45% discount to NAV

 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

2 hours ago, midtown said:

Another one gone.. With bitcoin under 16k I'm guessing the snow ball is starting to form

Don’t worry, they are seeking another billion in fresh capital 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

3 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust now trading at a 45% discount to NAV

 

I wonder why 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/21/grayscale-wont-share-proof-of-reserves-due-to-security-concerns.html

Don’t worry, we totally didn’t gamble your money away. No, we’re not going to prove it. Trust us. 

 

[Parliament 14,598]

Ooohhhh....yeaaahhh....I'm gonna...hafta...sorta...disagree with you there....

 

 

[Brisketexan 106,899]

The current path of crypto: utterly predictable, in fact predicted by a kajillion rational adults.
But some Ponzi scheme pump and dump bros surely knew better than all of us. We just couldn’t understand, see, there’s blockchain, and blah blah blah bullshit mumbo jumbo intended to make the target feel dumb, so to hide his embarrassment, he says “no, I get it…sign me up for somma that crypto!”
“See man, you just don’t understand the markets for emu products! Have you even tracked the market for low cholesterol red meats? You probably haven’t even followed the Latin American leather markets, a major bellwether for boot materials! Don’t be dumb, get in now before this golden opportunity passes you by!”
Sure, Jan.

[Humble Beast 258]

12 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The current path of crypto: utterly predictable, in fact predicted by a kajillion rational adults.
But some Ponzi scheme pump and dump bros surely knew better than all of us. We just couldn’t understand, see, there’s blockchain, and blah blah blah bullshit mumbo jumbo intended to make the target feel dumb, so to hide his embarrassment, he says “no, I get it…sign me up for somma that crypto!”
“See man, you just don’t understand the markets for emu products! Have you even tracked the market for low cholesterol red meats? You probably haven’t even followed the Latin American leather markets, a major bellwether for boot materials! Don’t be dumb, get in now before this golden opportunity passes you by!”
Sure, Jan.

What’s laughably predictable is these types of posts every 4 years by supposedly rational adults in the face of these numbers. 
 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

Looks like the parents wet their beaks as well. 
 

 

[Dahobbs 18,324]

23 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

What’s laughably predictable is these types of posts every 4 years by supposedly rational adults in the face of these numbers. 
 

 

That's exactly how ponzi schemes work. Everything looks great, until it doesn't. So far, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency generally keeps finding a sufficient new source of suckers. It'll all collapse eventually. 

[Humble Beast 258]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That's exactly how ponzi schemes work. Everything looks great, until it doesn't. So far, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency generally keeps finding a sufficient new source of suckers. It'll all collapse eventually. 

Yes, I remember when Madoff’s fund suffered multiple drawdowns >50% and pumped right back. Ponzis cannot survive dips that big. Much less go way higher afterward. 

[Parliament 14,598]

33 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

What’s laughably predictable is these types of posts every 4 years by supposedly rational adults in the face of these numbers. 
 

 

My mom buys me $20 of scratch-off tickets every year for xmas.  This year I'm asking for BTCN.  In a month $20 will buy one.

[Dahobbs 18,324]

7 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Yes, I remember when Madoff’s fund suffered multiple drawdowns >50% and pumped right back. Ponzis cannot survive dips that big. Much less go way higher afterward. 

Of course they can. They just need to identify new suckers or convince the prior suckers that everything is normal. It is sad that you're this invested in bullshit. But that is all crypto (and Bitcoin) is. It isn't a currency. It isn't a store of value. It is grade A bullshit. 

[StassneyHorn 6,774]

We use our real money to buy fake money, and when enough other people have bought the fake money, we sell all our fake money to get real money again.

[Humble Beast 258]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Of course they can. They just need to identify new suckers or convince the prior suckers that everything is normal. It is sad that you're this invested in bullshit. But that is all crypto (and Bitcoin) is. It isn't a currency. It isn't a store of value. It is grade A bullshit. 

Again to clarify, I’m only discussing bitcoin, not all of crypto. 
 

“New suckers” aka users or adopters are created each cycle by global central bank and government policies. 
 

I think it’s a fascinating subject to follow and I’m obviously invested financially. I’m happy to go back and forth with you. I’ve been here a while. You’re the one commenting on this thread about something you think is total bullshit.

 

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

We use our real money to buy fake money, and when enough other people have bought the fake money, we sell all our fake money to get real money again.

What part of hodl do you not understand?

[Humble Beast 258]

Here’s a nice Brisket post from some guy named Charlie Stross. 
 

 

[Captainant 28,539]

40 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Again to clarify, I’m only discussing bitcoin, not all of crypto. 
 

“New suckers” aka users or adopters are created each cycle by global central bank and government policies. 

You are intentionally ignoring that BTC is the reserve currency for the rest of crypto and demand for BTC is largely driven by speculation in those other coins. As the rest of crypto deflates, people are going to also exit their BTC positions for an asset with actual value and utility. 

Or at least, they're hoping to find money dumber than they were so they can get cash back for their crypto

[Brisketexan 106,899]

1 hour ago, Humble Beast said:

Here’s a nice Brisket post from some guy named Charlie Stross. 
 

 

The emu craze/ponzi scheme lasted around 7 years before it crashed.

And mind you, that's for something that actually has some intrinsic value (for as much as the benefits were oversold, emus still produce marketable meat and leather).  

Beanie Babie investing lasted around 5-6 years.

And again, they have some intrinsic value.  I think BTC will retain some value for some years to come.  Just like emus have.  It just isn't the "ZOMG world-changing big thing!" that it's being pushed as.....same as with emus and beanie babies.  And, like both of those things, the only people getting RICH off of it are doing so via a ponzi mechanism -- "you better get in on this now, don't miss out on getting rich!  And, uh, buy MY BTC/emu chicks/beanie babies to build your portfolio!"

I know.  I know.  "This time, it's different."

[washparkhorn 9,973]

Cathie Wood on the Bloomberg is sticking with her call of $1 million a coin for Bitcoin by 2030. 

Hold the rope, redux. 

 

[Humble Beast 258]

4 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Cathie Wood on the Bloomberg is sticking with her call of $1 million a coin for Bitcoin by 2030. 

Hold the rope, redux. 

 

Yeah we may need her to get washed out before we can move back up. 

[washparkhorn 9,973]

14 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Yeah we may need her to get washed out before we can move back up. 

[StassneyHorn 6,774]

First this

than this

 

[Brisketexan 106,899]

1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Cathie Wood on the Bloomberg is sticking with her call of $1 million a coin for Bitcoin by 2030. 

Hold the rope, redux. 

 

I love a woman of a certain age who chooses to engage in foolish exercises based on outsized and unrealistic expectations.

Why?  No reason.  No reason at all.

Edited November 22, 2022 by Brisketexan

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Cathie Wood…good luck 

“As of May, 2022, Wood's flagship fund, Ark Innovation, trails the S&P 500 for the trailing five years. The fund has dropped in value by more than 70% from last year's peak”

lol 

[Parliament 14,598]

Is she Aggy?

[Neonmoon 38,130]

2 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Is she Aggy?

She’s the tall one probably 

[Humble Beast 258]

 

[52-80 19,377]

If you bought long-duration US Treasury bonds from 5 years ago, you are underwater in nominal terms. 

If you bought high-yield corporate bonds from 5 years ago, you are underwater in real terms.

If you bought US equities from 5 years ago -- like the above 2 securities -- you are still underperforming bitcoin

 

Stuff goes up, and stuff goes down.  If you bought the entire Nasdaq in 2021, ex-post you were a genius.  If you bought the entire Nasdaq in 2022, ex-post you are an idiot.

The only receipt that matters is where you got in and where you got out.  Please spare people the sanctimony of your hindsight geniuses.

[StassneyHorn 6,774]

I have some coins to Aladdin’s Castle, any interest?

[CoTex 1,177]

20 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

I have some coins to Aladdin’s Castle, any interest?

Contribute those to a wallet, get them on the chain, and then you can lever up baby.

[Captainant 28,539]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

If you bought long-duration US Treasury bonds from 5 years ago, you are underwater in nominal terms. 

If you bought high-yield corporate bonds from 5 years ago, you are underwater in real terms.

If you bought US equities from 5 years ago -- like the above 2 securities -- you are still underperforming bitcoin

 

Stuff goes up, and stuff goes down.  If you bought the entire Nasdaq in 2021, ex-post you were a genius.  If you bought the entire Nasdaq in 2022, ex-post you are an idiot.

The only receipt that matters is where you got in and where you got out.  Please spare people the sanctimony of your hindsight geniuses.

Madoffs clients had a similar argument, until they didn't. Fraud is fraud my dude

[Neonmoon 38,130]

This was a fun post I saw. 

[Humble Beast 258]

7 hours ago, 52-80 said:

If you bought long-duration US Treasury bonds from 5 years ago, you are underwater in nominal terms. 

If you bought high-yield corporate bonds from 5 years ago, you are underwater in real terms.

If you bought US equities from 5 years ago -- like the above 2 securities -- you are still underperforming bitcoin

 

Stuff goes up, and stuff goes down.  If you bought the entire Nasdaq in 2021, ex-post you were a genius.  If you bought the entire Nasdaq in 2022, ex-post you are an idiot.

The only receipt that matters is where you got in and where you got out.  Please spare people the sanctimony of your hindsight geniuses.

No no no my guy. All these posters were right and called the bitcoin crash. Now it’s crashed all the way down to $16,000 per coin because it has no value. It’s useless. 
 

Here’s a good lesson for everyone to help you stay away. FYI there’s been two more crashes since this video. 😭 Be careful out there  

 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Humble Beast

[52-80 19,377]

19 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

No no no my guy. All these posters were right and called the bitcoin crash. Now it’s crashed all the way down to $16,000 per coin because it has no value. It’s useless. 

 

It was obvious to me Quinn Ewers was going to have a brilliant start against Alabama, get injured, shut out Oklahoma, and then play like the worst QB in the conference, resulting in a middling team record of 7-4. 

I just didn’t bother to write it down and forgot to put skin in the game. 

[Hefeweizen 5,444]

Cathie Wood thinks it’s going to a million per BTC.  Good luck with that bet, lady.

[CoTex 1,177]

10 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

No no no my guy. All these posters were right and called the bitcoin crash. Now it’s crashed all the way down to $16,000 per coin because it has no value. It’s useless. 
 

Here’s a good lesson for everyone to help you stay away. FYI there’s been two more crashes since this video. 😭 Be careful out there  

 

 

If it’s such a sure thing why does it swing so wildly?  And if it’s the best currency ever, why do you constantly compare it to dollars?

[Humble Beast 258]

13 minutes ago, CoTex said:

If it’s such a sure thing why does it swing so wildly?  And if it’s the best currency ever, why do you constantly compare it to dollars?

I never said it was a sure thing. It swings wildly because it has inelastic supply so increases or decreases in demand and leverage cause larger swings in price. As more capital moves into it over time, the volatility should lessen. 
 

It’s compared to dollars because that is the current reserve currency and it serves as a proxy for adoption.  Although there has always been the meme in BTC that 1 BTC=1 BTC. 

[Captainant 28,539]

7 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I never said it was a sure thing. It swings wildly because it has inelastic supply so increases or decreases in demand and leverage cause larger swings in price. As more capital moves into it over time, the volatility should lessen. 

Capital is moving out of Bitcoin, and the main driver of demand for it was the forest of shit coins and SBF's out there looking for arbitrage opportunities. Now that there's fewer and fewer shit coins and the dumb money is now just dumb with no money, there's going to be less capital moving into the crypto space. 

[52-80 19,377]

14 minutes ago, CoTex said:

If it’s such a sure thing why does it swing so wildly?  And if it’s the best currency ever

Has anyone in these 65 pages claimed either of those things?

It’s a thing some people transact and like all things people transact its value relative to some (arbitrary) reference goes up and it goes down.

We’ve seen an auto-correlation this year where everything has gone down, even ostensibly the safest financial asset (US Treasuries) goes down bigly. People spiking the football now when they’ve never tossed a pass is some pretty weak shit. 

[Dahobbs 18,324]

21 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

I never said it was a sure thing. It swings wildly because it has inelastic supply so increases or decreases in demand and leverage cause larger swings in price. As more capital moves into it over time, the volatility should lessen. 
 

It’s compared to dollars because that is the current reserve currency and it serves as a proxy for adoption.  Although there has always been the meme in BTC that 1 BTC=1 BTC. 

I'm entertained by the idea that the problem with fiat currency is unpredictable monetary policy resulting in wild swings in supply and prices, but that the current swings in the price of Bitcoin aren't a problem because it is caused by a stable supply and wild swings in demand. 

7 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Has anyone in these 65 pages claimed either of those things?

It’s a thing some people transact and like all things people transact its value relative to some (arbitrary) reference goes up and it goes down.

We’ve seen an auto-correlation this year where everything has gone down, even ostensibly the safest financial asset (US Treasuries) goes down bigly. People spiking the football now when they’ve never tossed a pass is some pretty weak shit. 

Yes. There has actually been argument that bitcoin is in fact a currency and will supersede inferior currencies like the dollar. The truth is that Bitcoin is a speculative asset. In all likelihood it'll eventually end up worth near $0 long term. But there is plenty of money to be made on the speculation in the meantime. And, it is of course possible, although against the great weight of evidence at the moment, that Bitcoin actually does become a currency wherein the vast majority of transactions are for the purchase or sale of other goods and services and not just transactions for Bitcoin as a speculative asset. But, personally, I wouldn't bet on it. 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Dahobbs

[CoTex 1,177]

16 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Has anyone in these 65 pages claimed either of those things?

It’s a thing some people transact and like all things people transact its value relative to some (arbitrary) reference goes up and it goes down.

We’ve seen an auto-correlation this year where everything has gone down, even ostensibly the safest financial asset (US Treasuries) goes down bigly. People spiking the football now when they’ve never tossed a pass is some pretty weak shit. 

The chart earlier today in this thread  showing that it had only had two down years, or the dip where it went from 36 cents to 6 cents - what was the point of those?  I took those to mean that “sure, everything has hiccups, but overall this is a great move.”  Maybe I cut a corner with “sure thing.”

I didn’t show up to spike the ball.  I was employed to work on a voyager project.  I started reading and, what I’ve learned is, nobody has a straight answer about much of this stuff.  
 

It is mostly “it’s the next best thing.”  But the way I see it, people aren’t picking this stuff up for financial transactions or to make their lives easier.  It’s speculative.  They think it will be worth more tomorrow than. It is today.  I can’t figure out why it will be soooo valuable tomorrow but I can see that people say “it increased in value in the past so, surely it will in the future.”

 

 Doesn’t answer my questions.

And so I throw out my pithy quips and opinions here and watch the responses.

[Dr. Teeth 5,868]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Cathie Wood thinks it’s going to a million per BTC.  Good luck with that bet, lady.

All of her pandemic bets are cratering and instead of selling, she is doubling down on her stupid calls. And she is the only buyer and hyper. It hasn’t worked recently in equities but she has found a bid in bitcoin. When the only momentum in crypto is because of Elon or Wood, you know it is close to cratering.  But it definitely works in the short term. 

[Humble Beast 258]

54 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm entertained by the idea that the problem with fiat currency is unpredictable monetary policy resulting in wild swings in supply and prices, but that the current swings in the price of Bitcoin aren't a problem because it is caused by a stable supply and wild swings in demand. 

One is a mature system that is more adaptable and is controlled by a handful of people. It is corrupted and directly benefits those closest to the controls.
 

The other is an immature system that is fixed, decentralized and in which all users are treated equally.
 

Neither is perfect. There’s tradeoffs between both. 

[52-80 19,377]

1 hour ago, CoTex said:

I didn’t show up to spike the ball.  I was employed to work on a voyager project.  I started reading and, what I’ve learned is, nobody has a straight answer about much of this stuff.  

It is mostly “it’s the next best thing.”  But the way I see it, people aren’t picking this stuff up for financial transactions or to make their lives easier.  It’s speculative.  They think it will be worth more tomorrow than. It is today.  I can’t figure out why it will be soooo valuable tomorrow but I can see that people say “it increased in value in the past so, surely it will in the future.”

 Doesn’t answer my questions.

I didn't accuse you specifically of spiking the ball.  But plenty of people have, many who expressed no substantive opinion (in either direction), and otherwise kept mum until now for a hollow celebrer... as if they get trophies for having sat quietly in the bleachers.

I'm not seeing anybody making any claims of guaranteed value or utility of crypto. The idea of hardcoded transactional rules and and validation by consensus is intriguing and worthwhile. The economics of crypto tokens is indisputedly a matter of "speculation" ... as is virtually every other asset out there.  The reality is if you buy US equities, you too are speculating on the valuation.  Actual yield of nasdaq dividend yield is <1%.  Price to book is in the double digits.  And, in case yall didnt know, common stock owners are juniormost claimant on the assets.  Credit market has been on the floor for a decade.  Metal commodities (like gold) doesnt bear interest.  And if volatility of crypto is gut-churning, has anyone been paying attention to energy in recent years?

Most of peoples economic investments then are essentially speculation.  Why do people think quipping "see, that crypter thing was gambling on a ponzer" is some great aphorism? ...sounds more like wisdom from a taxi driver. 

Fact is, since the inception of this thread, bitcoin (the most synonymous crypto token) has still outperformed all of the above.  So unless someone actually called the top, they dont get to plant the flag at the bottom. 

[CoTex 1,177]

42 minutes ago, 52-80 said:The idea of hardcoded transactional rules and and validation by consensus is intriguing and worthwhile. 

You say it’s intriguing - I agree.

You say it’s worthwhile.  Other than for the intrigue, why is it worthwhile?

[Humble Beast 258]

3 hours ago, CoTex said:

The chart earlier today in this thread  showing that it had only had two down years, or the dip where it went from 36 cents to 6 cents - what was the point of those?  I took those to mean that “sure, everything has hiccups, but overall this is a great move.”  Maybe I cut a corner with “sure thing.”

I didn’t show up to spike the ball.  I was employed to work on a voyager project.  I started reading and, what I’ve learned is, nobody has a straight answer about much of this stuff.  
 

It is mostly “it’s the next best thing.”  But the way I see it, people aren’t picking this stuff up for financial transactions or to make their lives easier.  It’s speculative.  They think it will be worth more tomorrow than. It is today.  I can’t figure out why it will be soooo valuable tomorrow but I can see that people say “it increased in value in the past so, surely it will in the future.”

 

 Doesn’t answer my questions.

And so I throw out my pithy quips and opinions here and watch the responses.

Bitcoin is an trustless asset/currency which you can save that cannot be debased. When used properly it is censorship resistant and very difficult to confiscate. 
 

It’s become viable as we reach the end of a debt supercycle. If you’re unsure what that historically entails, it typically leads to money printing and a reset of the global financial order with all of the shenanigans that go along with that. 

[52-80 19,377]

38 minutes ago, CoTex said:

You say it’s intriguing - I agree.

You say it’s worthwhile.  Other than for the intrigue, why is it worthwhile?

The token as economic value: I think this still has usecase in scenarios of high economic risk.  A local colleague is Russian national who's financially supporting her family back in Russia.  Since the war started, the traditional payment rails have been frozen.  She and her family, as non-politically exposed personnel, cannot transact with one-another.  Hyperinflation:  Turkey, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina, etc.  If you can your hands on physical dollars (i.e. the world reserve currency), great.  If not, a bit of digital currency plus whatever other EUR, CHF, GBP, you can grab probably helps.

Blockchain/smart contract: essentially as a decentralized database, why not?  I have a house in a 'better' part of Europe.  Buying it involved finding lawyers, waiting for appointment, signing contracts in person, and having the lawyers shuffling and filing physical papers back and forth at the courthouse, bringing me back poor photocopies, and ultimately the main proof of my ownership is a deck of paper bound by an actual cloth thread that i mustn't disturb.  We just closed another house in another part of Europe, most everything done via internet with signing of one thing automatically triggering execution of other contracts.  Notionally, this digitization is just an internal/centralized db.  There's clearly something directionally right about this.  (I'm not saying I have architectured a surefire application for this.  I'm saying the concept is broadly something we all already understand and accept)

People lump it all into 1 wooly abstract thing when it's not.  The SBF episode at its core was a mechanical fraud of a guy leveraging customer deposits to make gambles. The other shitcoins - very aptly name - is just pure momentum chase.  If you convert your money to something called Dentacoin that purports to 'modernize the dental industry' and is hosted by 5 nodes in China.... you shouldn't be surprised to lose your shirt.

Edited November 23, 2022 by 52-80

[Humble Beast 258]

23 minutes ago, CoTex said:

You say it’s intriguing - I agree.

You say it’s worthwhile.  Other than for the intrigue, why is it worthwhile?

It’s worth exploring a leap forward in monetary technology.
 

Transferring value peer to peer around the world in seconds is an objective advancement. The Lightning network built on top of bitcoin allows that. You can send micropayments, stream payments. We don’t know what all can built with it. 
 

One thing that is being tinkered with is streaming payments to content providers like podcasters. You just link a Lightning wallet to the app and set how many satoshis (sats, or 0.00000001 BTC) you want to stream to the content creator per minute. There’s a good chance it doesn’t happen, but that kind of function could disrupt the current ad based model of content. Granted, these are big ideas but who could’ve thought how the internet would disrupt our lives. The key thing is it’s a permissionless network that anyone can build whatever they want.