Cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, etc.)

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

1 hour ago, bernorange said:

Everything is green this morning.  Everything.

Wake up to basically 80k. This might be the push to 100 by EOY.

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

6 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wake up to basically 80k. This might be the push to 100 by EOY.

80k! Let’s go!

[Tailgate 3014]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/11/the-us-government-is-one-step-closer-to-holding-1-million-bitcoins/

[Captainant 27308]

8 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/11/the-us-government-is-one-step-closer-to-holding-1-million-bitcoins/

is this considered a good or bad thing for crypto? A major selling point was insulation from governments and would-be manipulators

[Maestro della Moneta 116]

Almost 85k and MSTR 320. Things are accelerating. 

 

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

is this considered a good or bad thing for crypto? A major selling point was insulation from governments and would-be manipulators

This was always going to happen. It’s good because it will drive adoption further. If it’s really viewed as digital gold there will be a race to secure Bitcoin. 

 

As a holder, my Bitcoin is still insulated from governments. I hold the keys. 

[52-80 19066]

wen the music stops u guys r fukked

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

3 hours ago, Tailgate said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/11/11/the-us-government-is-one-step-closer-to-holding-1-million-bitcoins/

 

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

is this considered a good or bad thing for crypto? A major selling point was insulation from governments and would-be manipulators

there may only be 14-15 million bitcoin in circulation. Technically there are 20m but there are estimates that many are lost meaning that they're inaccessible for a wide variety of reasons. But even if all 20m are available, any one entity locking up 5% is a big deal. 

Yes there are some btc evangelists who would hate this development but that's just like their opinion man.

Personally I think it's a bad idea for the US govt to purchase something which is effectively a security. However no one is asking me. I can only react to the possibility.

Edited Monday at 04:49 PM by Nice Guy Eddie

[bernorange 8346]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

there may only be 14-15 million bitcoin in circulation. ...

Less than 3 million available for sale on exchanges currently:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/11/where-the-demand-comes-from-as-bitcoin-breaks-through-82k-van-straten/

Saylor just bought another 27k:

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/11/11/microstrategy-buys-another-27200-btc-for-2b-bitcoin-profits-sit-at-11b/

Edited Monday at 04:57 PM by bernorange

[PilotsError 2280]

My prediction:

I think it'll push up to 94/95.  Early December it corrects back to around 79.  Then pushes up past 100 by end of January.

[bernorange 8346]

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

19 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

My prediction:

I think it'll push up to 94/95.  Early December it corrects back to around 79.  Then pushes up past 100 by end of January.

I'm unsure if there will be a major correction before 100. And in the fast moving times with crypto, a correction can be measures in hours before it's recovery.

Just watched it blow through 86K on coinbase and almost 87. I assume they just are not many people selling and too many want in.

Until recently it was feasible for many to aspire to owning a whole bitcoin. while not impossible, we're getting to the point where most couldn't/shouldn't put that much of their investable dollars into a whole bitcoin. I realize that owning a whole bitcoin doesn't create any special value for its owner.

[Jesse Livermore 9]

26 minutes ago, bernorange said:

 

“Nothing else in the world... not all the armies... is so powerful as an idea whose time has come.”

Don’t fight this is right. 

[Chopper 17125]

18 minutes ago, Jesse Livermore said:

“Nothing else in the world... not all the armies... is so powerful as an idea whose time has come.”

Don’t fight this is right. 

You seem like someone who's on his 252nd Surly account and it's about to get banned again.

[52-80 19066]

54 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Until recently it was feasible for many to aspire to owning a whole bitcoin. while not impossible, we're getting to the point where most couldn't/shouldn't put that much of their investable dollars into a whole bitcoin. I realize that owning a whole bitcoin doesn't create any special value for its owner.

Now theres so many vehicles (=securities) with which to get indirect bitcoin exposure i dont think most people, outside of purists, care to get direct unitized bitcoin custodianship. 

like, you can just buy $50k worth mstr and $50k of gbtc and be satisfied and not need to get 1.0 bitcoins

[Jesse Livermore 9]

32 minutes ago, Chopper said:

You seem like someone who's on his 252nd Surly account and it's about to get banned again.

Nevertheless, he persisted. 

Why are you on this thread? Have any thoughts?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

1 hour ago, 52-80 said:

Now theres so many vehicles (=securities) with which to get indirect bitcoin exposure i dont think most people, outside of purists, care to get direct unitized bitcoin custodianship. 

like, you can just buy $50k worth mstr and $50k of gbtc and be satisfied and not need to get 1.0 bitcoins

Yeah but there is something about actually owning the bitcoin yourself. Buy 1 share of IBIT for $49 and you indirectly own some unknown percent of a single bitcoin. Maybe it roughly equals to $49/$88,000 but maybe it doesn't exactly.

At some point, especially if govts or sovereign funds get involved, where is everyone finding bitcoin to buy. I guess that is when you have weeks like this where it's up 25-30%

[Captainant 27308]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yeah but there is something about actually owning the bitcoin yourself. Buy 1 share of IBIT for $49 and you indirectly own some unknown percent of a single bitcoin. Maybe it roughly equals to $49/$88,000 but maybe it doesn't exactly.

At some point, especially if govts or sovereign funds get involved, where is everyone finding bitcoin to buy. I guess that is when you have weeks like this where it's up 25-30%

It's leveraging BTC more and more. And when the line goes up, that leverage is an excellent thing. If the line goes the other way, it's a ton of exposure to downside.

[52-80 19066]

19 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yeah but there is something about actually owning the bitcoin yourself. Buy 1 share of IBIT for $49 and you indirectly own some unknown percent of a single bitcoin. Maybe it roughly equals to $49/$88,000 but maybe it doesn't exactly.

At some point, especially if govts or sovereign funds get involved, where is everyone finding bitcoin to buy. I guess that is when you have weeks like this where it's up 25-30%

IBIT and GBTC gives you legal ownership of a trust that owns pretty much exclusively bitcoin. Both issuers publish the net holding of the trust, so you can work out the market price vs underlying value.

The premium/discount to the (“NAV”) value is pretty much zero, because any drift can be arbitraged away. That gap used to be larger to reflect various risks but since crypto got mainstream and easier to trade theres no more exploitable inefficiency in the trust. 

[Tailgate 3014]

Looks like 90k might happen tonight. I’d imagine in addition to to all the news there’s some FOMO buying going on.

[Jesse Livermore 9]

Always funny to go and look at these throwback posts from the absolute bottom.  Whoops. 

Hard to believe, but there were plenty of similar posts by the usual suspects here. They've all disappeared except for Captain. Props to you for fighting the (not) good fight. Let’s look back. 

 

On 11/23/2022 at 6:41 PM, CoTex said:

All right fine, I’ll bite.

I want to buy 1 Bitcoin.  Trade cash for 1 Bitcoin.  
 

Seriously, I can tolerate this amount going to $0. First step?  Open an account somewhere?

Did you do it??? The price that day was about $17,000. 

On 11/22/2022 at 9:02 AM, Dahobbs said:

That's exactly how ponzi schemes work. Everything looks great, until it doesn't. So far, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency generally keeps finding a sufficient new source of suckers. It'll all collapse eventually. 

Oh

 

[Jesse Livermore 9]

On 11/17/2022 at 3:30 PM, Neonmoon said:

Bitcoin is an asset in the sense that beanie babies are assets. They both exist. There is a finite number of them (21 million), and the value is made up out of thin air. They have no intrinsic value. It is not similar to cash in any way. The only benefit is the decentralization, you know it is “censorship resistant”, lol. But yeah the government can’t seize your funds for funding terrorism, or money laundering, or not paying child support, or tax evasion, or fucking kids, so that’s a plus to some 

 

On 11/18/2022 at 9:56 AM, bullzak said:

I just love all this. Been having to field client questions about crypto for years and we told them it isn't our thing. 

Always have felt its a greater fool theory deal. Yes, like beanie babies. Problem is when the last fools in the chain get left holding a bag of dogshit there aren't many fools left. 

BTC will probably survive because how else can criminals launder money with no rules in place? 

At least there aren't many left to tell me its money, a store of value, or an inflation hedge anymore. Thats all bullshit. 

But hey, if youre long it, and you like it, go for it. Just dont cry on anyones shoulder when all that shit goes to money heaven. 

Still telling clients this?

[CoTex 1160]

1 hour ago, Jesse Livermore said:

Always funny to go and look at these throwback posts from the absolute bottom.  Whoops. 

Hard to believe, but there were plenty of similar posts by the usual suspects here. They've all disappeared except for Captain. Props to you for fighting the (not) good fight. Let’s look back. 

 

Did you do it??? The price that day was about $17,000. 

Oh

 

Of course not. That's not how internet works.  

I did get in on IBIT at $30, which is nice.

I have increased my holding in that and BTCO over time and am sitting on some nice gains in both spots.  And by nice I mean the best performers I've ever had, if you consider the increase percentage and the short time frame.

When it goes to $0, I'll lose less of a gain than you will, and will feel better about my $0 than you will.  Then we'll fight with guns and sticks in the streets like The Road.

[Dahobbs 17420]

1 hour ago, Jesse Livermore said:

Always funny to go and look at these throwback posts from the absolute bottom.  Whoops. 

Hard to believe, but there were plenty of similar posts by the usual suspects here. They've all disappeared except for Captain. Props to you for fighting the (not) good fight. Let’s look back. 

 

Did you do it??? The price that day was about $17,000. 

Oh

 

It is still a ponzi scheme. 

[CoTex 1160]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

It is still a ponzi scheme. 

Agree.

Here's where I landed, and I have no desire to Cloak Room up this place, but if we're discussing a bitcoin which, arguably, is a currency (I understand there are theories that it is a system, a store of value, a ponzi scheme, etc.), then I think I can compare it to the world's "reserve currency" which is the US Dollar.  Disclaimer, these thoughts are not particularly well organized.

The US money supply (I'm going to use M2 but I'm sure there are better measures and some econ grad student can point that out) was +- $11trillion dollars in 2014.  A decade later there are +- 22trillion, "in supply."  I know this does not equal printed dollar bills in someone's stack. Inflation makes my 2024 dollar worth less than my 2014 dollar.  And, if my dollar is backed by the full faith and credit... and the US has more debt, then there is an argument that my dollar is devalued by government borrowing, while inflation makes the government debt amount cost less, and on-and-on.

So, bitcoin is capped in supply.  21million as I understand it.  What happens when someone decides to amend and edit the software/plan and create some more?  Not smart enough to know but I'm sure people will say "that will never happen."  I've seen a few impossible things become possible, in the last decade, so I wouldn't guarantee anything.  

Take all of this as amateur and uninformed economics but, a dollar is of variable value and there is a variable quantity of dollars.  A bitcoin is of variable value and there is a fixed (for now) quantity of bitcoins.  One is backed by the federal government which brings with it a hearty appetite for borrowing, one is backed by holders' trust and faith in its future.

The USD is the world's reserve currency and for many reasons, many people don't like that.  Many people would like an alternative.  It may be BTC - too early to tell and likely not permanent.

One is declining in value, as to the other.  One is increasing in value, as to the other.  One is widely accepted around the world.  One is gaining acceptance.

Which one will win?  I've got a majority of my small stack in USD things, and a minority in BTC things.  What is a USD thing?  A share of BRK/B is in many ways, cash.  I never hold the certificate in my hand - I guess I could try to have one issued - but instead hold it in some e-wallet at a broker.  Relative to the dollar, it increases in value, sometimes.  I hope it goes fast.

I think because of government policies, froth, desire for change, rebellion and lack of alternate suitable reserve currencies, for now, BTC will go up for a while.  Might come down in a real hurry too. Hacker rewrites the code so that everyone gets a blue screen?  Scrambles the data so nobody knows who owns what?  Counterfeiting?  There is risk out there.

 

Top - unknown.  Floor - $0.

 

[Captainant 27308]

16 minutes ago, CoTex said:

Here's where I landed, and I have no desire to Cloak Room up this place, but if we're discussing a bitcoin which, arguably, is a currency (I understand there are theories that it is a system, a store of value, a ponzi scheme, etc.), then I think I can compare it to the world's "reserve currency" which is the US Dollar.  Disclaimer, these thoughts are not particularly well organized.

My main thesis is that if it's a currency, it's a terribly expensive, inefficient and hard to use currency. Its rise in value has not been driven by a rise in utility or decrease in end user costs. Its price is going up from increased FOMO and the expectation of cheaper debt.

[bernorange 8346]

@CoTex:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/381-cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-ethereum-litecoin-etc/?do=findComment&comment=6588992

 

[CoTex 1160]

20 minutes ago, bernorange said:

@CoTex:

https://www.surlyhorns.com/board/topic/381-cryptocurrencies-bitcoin-ethereum-litecoin-etc/?do=findComment&comment=6588992

 

So the risk is "0%" and "very unlikely," and "potentially vulnerable to a 51% network attack."

I'm sticking with what I said which was

"What happens when someone decides to amend and edit the software/plan and create some more?  Not smart enough to know but I'm sure people will say "that will never happen."  I've seen a few impossible things become possible, in the last decade, so I wouldn't guarantee anything."

And, I think it is likely that Bitcoin code/system/network, whatever you call it, was manmade... by humans... in the past.  I also think it is likely that there are humans who are now actively trying to "hack" it.  Either for profit or to be disruptive.  As difficult as it may be to imagine, if I'm correct, these humans actively trying to hack it, now and tomorrow, will have access to AI and greater computing power than those original creators. 

They may beat the unbeatable system, or they may not.

[Captainant 27308]

2 minutes ago, CoTex said:

So the risk is "0%" and "very unlikely," and "potentially vulnerable to a 51% network attack."

I'm sticking with what I said which was

"What happens when someone decides to amend and edit the software/plan and create some more?  Not smart enough to know but I'm sure people will say "that will never happen."  I've seen a few impossible things become possible, in the last decade, so I wouldn't guarantee anything."

And, I think it is likely that Bitcoin code/system/network, whatever you call it, was manmade... by humans... in the past.  I also think it is likely that there are humans who are now actively trying to "hack" it.  Either for profit or to be disruptive.  As difficult as it may be to imagine, if I'm correct, these humans actively trying to hack it, now and tomorrow, will have access to AI and greater computing power than those original creators. 

They may beat the unbeatable system, or they may not.

A 51% attack is not implausible. If a state actor wanted to, I would imagine they could gain control of a mining pool or two that would get them to the point of controlling pool consensus.

And that's just a perpetual risk, by protocol design

[Jesse Livermore 9]

2 minutes ago, CoTex said:

"What happens when someone decides to amend and edit the software/plan and create some more?  Not smart enough to know but I'm sure people will say "that will never happen."  I've seen a few impossible things become possible, in the last decade, so I wouldn't guarantee anything."

You can amend it now and run your own code. It’s called a hard fork. But people would have to choose to run your code to make it worthwhile. Not going to happen.  

 

It’s all in the code. 

 

 

[Jesse Livermore 9]

Just now, Captainant said:

A 51% attack is not implausible. If a state actor wanted to, I would imagine they could gain control of a mining pool or two that would get them to the point of controlling pool consensus.

And that's just a perpetual risk, by protocol design

If they didn’t own the hardware and just “controlled the pools” of miners, then miners would just point their hash to a different pool. It’s not in the interest of miners that have invested millions of dollars in infrastructure to participate in a 51% attack of the Bitcoin network. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

I wouldn't call bitcoin a ponzi scheme but it definitely is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. there are plenty of valuable assets that neither have intrinsic value nor create income. If someone wants to pay the equivalent of 89K for a bitcoin, that's its value. If no one wants to pay more than $0.25 for it, then that's the value.

 

[52-80 19066]

Ugly paintings are a ponzi scheme. Jordans are a ponzi scheme. My wristwatch collection all of which I cant wear at once is a ponzi scheme. A 30Y foreign bond you dont hold to maturity couponing a currency you dont spend is a ponzi scheme. The publicly listed stock you bought on the secondary market with no dividend and that you dont vote in is a ponzi scheme. 

This is just a boring semantics-based critique by the lazy. 

Yes, the market value of a thing is, by definition, based on the consensus of those in the market. The market for bitcoin is broader and broader as it gets more institutional support and distribution. And lots of those things dont need real world utility.

My gold Philharmonics I never intend to smelt into jewelry or onto a circuit board and nobody will ever buy it for that purpose either. I like the idea of having it. I know its supply is finite. I know its value is speculated with some vague correlation to financial markets. I know other people would like to have it. Its my ponzi. 

Edited 8 hours ago by 52-80

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

We're not far away from most investors owning bitcoin at least indirectly. It’s like you could be opposed a single S&P 500 company, but it’s practically impossible to avoid owning them. I expect many funds to have bitcoin within 5 years. I expect the fund managers want to own it today but feel they can’t.

[4thgenhorn 38]

Only crypto I bought was Eth. I bought 3 years ago and am exactly flat in 3 years. Who would have guessed Dogecoin would have been better. Crazy world. 

[Jesse Livermore 9]

51 minutes ago, 4thgenhorn said:

Only crypto I bought was Eth. I bought 3 years ago and am exactly flat in 3 years. Who would have guessed Dogecoin would have been better. Crazy world. 

Sorry, Eth has always been trash. 

[4thgenhorn 38]

11 minutes ago, Jesse Livermore said:

Sorry, Eth has always been trash. 

Apparently so. Thought it was prudent, but seriously, what’s the calculus for any alt coin other than Bitcoin?  Dogecoin to the moon…crazy irrational clown town we live in. 

[B00M 6278]

22 minutes ago, Jesse Livermore said:

Sorry, Eth has always been trash. 

[CoTex 1160]

Isn’t there an argument that ETH’s stable price increases its utility?

I want to go buy some carrots with my bitcoin and holy shit, I don’t know what it’s worth today, $12,000?  $80,000?

I didn’t say increases it’s value but, as far as usefulness, wild value fluctuations are the things of banana republics, rite?