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24/25 Astros Offseason thread


Wulaw Horn

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We lost Springer, Cole, and Correa when they sought mega contracts. The Astros moved on and continued going to postseasons. Cole had a couple very good years and Correa hit well this season (albeit only 89 games), but I don’t think any of their contracts were good ROI for the kind of money they got paid. Throwing the bank at Bregman could be the worst signing of the 4. Good luck Scott Boras, gfy. 

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Resgin Kikuchi.

Trade Tucker, Pressly, and Framber

Offer Bregman a QO and let him walk, because 30 year old unathletic 3B on the downsides of their career aren't in high demand.

Returning pitchers from injury - Garcia, Urquidy, Javier, "McCullers", and Murfee

FA - Verlander, Graveman, Heyward, Neris, Ferguson, Gamel

I would target the Lowes in TBR

Brandon is under team control for two more seasons with TO at $10.5M and $11.5M respectively, he plays LF

Josh has 4 years of team control and is the new RF

Go sign one of the vet 1Bs like Goldschmidt to a 2-year with both PO and TO on the 2nd year.

Lineup is 

Lowe - LF

Altuve - 2B

Alvarez - DH

Diaz - C

Lowe - RF

Goldschmidt - 1B

Pena - SS

McCormick - CF

Dezenzo - 3B

Bench - Caratini, Singleton, Dubon, the 13th spot goes to Leon or Whitcomb

Rotation 

Brown, Kikuchi, Blanco, Arighetti, (Garcia, Javier, Urquidy, and Blubaugh)

Bullpen

CL - Hader

8 - Abreu

MID - Whitley, Scott, King, Ort, Murfee

LR - One of the guys that didn't take the 5th spot in the rotation.

 

 

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this is one last run with tucker and framber on the roster. i think that’s how crane will want to build the roster. 

 

CF - we need to move on from jake and chas. need a every day CF and part time RF to split time with yordan 

Outfield: Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger (opt-out), Alex Verdugo, Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo, Tyler O’Neill, Joc Pederson (mutual option), Anthony Santander, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (opt-out), Teoscar Hernández, Aaron Hicks, Andrew McCutchen, Kevin Kiermaier, Max Kepler, Harrison Bader, Mark Canha, Mitch Haniger (opt-out), Hunter Renfroe (player option), Manuel Margot (mutual option), Michael A. Taylor, Charlie Blackmon, Adam Duvall, Randal Grichuk (mutual option), Jason Heyward, Jurickson Profar

 

3rd - not sure the plan here but here’s the free agent list. a young guy will get a serious look here.

 

Third base: Alex Bregman, Justin Turner, Eugenio Suárez (club option), Gio Urshela, J.D. Davis, Yoán Moncada (club option)

 

1st - I think diaz is the plan here. that’s been the talk since abreu was cut loose. singelton as a back up, if he’ll sign for the min. i don’t see us spending money on a back up 

catcher - carintini and salazar 

pitcher - need to find a couple of quality arms, healthy arms  i don’t see javier pitching in 2025. urquidy is a FA. kicoochie made himself sone serious $$$ his run here. 

 

coaches - do you base their performance on the 161 season or the two game playoff …  season stats were above avg. i don’t see any changes unless someone wants to leave. i’d boost latin american scouting group, that needs to be the life blood of our system. i’d also add to the people scouting other team’s systems, we strike gold there more than other mlb teams it seems like. 

 

we caught zero breaks / luck this season. week in and week out, just getting kicked to the balls. rub an egg on the entire org. if we caught our IL time in half, we win a 100 games. 

maybe we can stay healthy in 2025

 

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why would you trade tucker and framber ?

when’s the last time a division winner traded their #1/2 bat and #1 pitcher ?

why would you sign a 37 yo goldschmidt ???? didn’t you learn anything from abreu. sliding numbers the past 3 years, 37 yo, fuck me. signing old guys is not the way, that’s the for sure you kill off a run.

we need young blood, young fast guys, some pop in their bat. 

chas is not a starting mlb OF, we have to have a younger guy that can be the #4 OF ??

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31 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

why would you trade tucker and framber ?

when’s the last time a division winner traded their #1/2 bat and #1 pitcher ?

why would you sign a 37 yo goldschmidt ???? didn’t you learn anything from abreu. sliding numbers the past 3 years, 37 yo, fuck me. signing old guys is not the way, that’s the for sure you kill off a run.

we need young blood, young fast guys, some pop in their bat. 

chas is not a starting mlb OF, we have to have a younger guy that can be the #4 OF ??

Not sure where we would get that young blood/young fast guys with pop in their bat without trading Framber and/or Tucker

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7 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

We lost Springer, Cole, and Correa when they sought mega contracts. The Astros moved on and continued going to postseasons. Cole had a couple very good years and Correa hit well this season (albeit only 89 games), but I don’t think any of their contracts were good ROI for the kind of money they got paid. Throwing the bank at Bregman could be the worst signing of the 4. Good luck Scott Boras, gfy. 

Coles contract (so far) is easily worth the money and a very good ROI (or as good as FA signings can be). There is a decent chance we win the WS in 21 if he would have stayed. We’d also have more prospects because we wouldn’t have had to do the JV trades. 

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I’m curious if we actually go out and sign multiple guys. That would be a first if we did. I forget off seasons of the past but I don’t remember us ever signing multiple free agents in one off season. What’s the most we ever did going into a new season? I’d love to see us make an aggressive attempt to keep the window open though. 

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If we're going to keep signing the likes of Uncle Mike's last contract, Abreu, Montero, and Hader, I wish we wouldn't bother.  If we're never going to give more than 5 years, we'd be much better off keeping our powder dry, staying away from the tax threshold, and trading for effective players with 2-3 years left on their deals ala the first JV trade, Greinke, and Cole.  It would help if we could build up our farm again to have more trade chips but being willing to take on money can go a long way.  It's probably also harder to find targets these days though with endless playoff expansion and the race to the middle.

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"Race to the middle" is a thing these days. I wonder if the current playoff structure and recent postseason performances have diminished teams' focus on the regular season. All that money and effort just to get to October and lose to a scrappy WC team that's on an hot streak.

I realize baseball is a full-season business, not just an October tournament, but getting hardware in return for spending big on your roster is far from guaranteed in today's game. I'm not sure it makes competitive sense for anyone to try to gather all the shiny toys, though we know the Yankees and Dodgers will continue to do so.

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I think the offseason (at least the start of it) is a good time to talk about the context with which this organization is operating and compare it to where we entered the season.  Many times the season is instructive in forming opinions for what the future of the organization holds, but sometimes we can miss the forest for the trees or be unduly influenced by the results of the season.  Was the 2024 Astros season great?  No.  Was it fun to watch?  Absolutely not.  Did we like the outcome in the playoffs?  Of course not.  But, I think that big ball of suck hides something pretty important to note, and that is this:  What happened in the 2024 season probably makes the Astros an organization better prepared to capitalize on the next 5 years than we previously were heading into the season.  

Salaries and FA walk years (the year I use will be the last year with the Astros team- so Tucker will be '25 as that's his last year we can guarantee he's playing for us. I'm going to talk luxury tax dollars not actual dollars- b/c we have to make some sort of decision on what we talk about and that makes the most sense to me.   For guys with arbitration I'm projecting what I think the number will be. I'm only talking about guys I think matter and will be the core of Astros teams going forward.  

Player          Contract Status              FA Walk year (age at walk year)

Altuve          5 years/ 125M                 2029 (39 YO)

Alvarez        4 years/ 77M                  2028 (31)

Yainer Diaz   4 years $30M                2028 (29)

Pena-            3 years- 30M                2027 (29)

Meyers-        3 years- 15M                 2027 (31) -  I'm not sure Jake is an Astro all that time- I'm guessing he gets like 3M in arb 1 and they bring him back- candidate to dfa if no breakthrough after 25

McCormick   2 years- 13M                 2026 (31)- Chas has been good most of his career. He was terrible last year. I think they offer him something like $4M and bring him back. he made 2.8 never goes down- even after a bad year- candidate to dfa if bad again

Caratini-        1 year - 6M                    2025 (31)

Tucker-         1 year-  18M                    2025 (28)-  he made 12M this last year- 18M would be a normal type ARB raise for someone of his caliber. 

Dubon-          2 years- 12M                 2026 (31)-  He made 3.5M this year in arb 2- I'm guessing 5M in arb 3 and 7M in arb 4- he's a super 2 guy.  Candidate to dfa after 25

Singleton-     4 years of club control   2028 (36)- I would think they bring him back as a minimum wage guy you can do worse than him on the bench. Upside of productive guy in platoon situation- I suspect the plan is to upgrade as everyday 1B

Lost from this years team:  Bregman, Heyward, Gamel, 

Waiting in the wings- roster fodder (25 edition):  Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Melton, Mathews, Kessinger, Leon, Corona, Barber -  

Keep an eye on- long term guys:  Ochoa, Janek, Baez (one of these guys needs to hit in a big way- or Matthews be a star)

Prognosis:  That's 10 of your 13 guys (likely) coming back.  you get 3 more guys on your roster.  You are set in stone at C, 2b, SS, RF, DH(LF).  You have a really nice utility player in Dubon. You have a great defensive CF in Meyers. You have a candidate to really bounce back and be a good player in Chas (though that's not a certainty).  Order of necessity to fill a position/improve- 1B, 3B, LF, CF.

What I'd do- reasonable edition:      Sign Christian Walker- 3 years- 60M (ESPN predicted 40-80M)  (astros have been interested in him at deadline for years allegedly).  120 OPS plus guy last year and more or less for his career. Good defense.  No signs of slowing down- but at 33 figure 3/60 is maximum that makes sense. 

sign Michael Conforto to play LF and platoon with Chas- he's a lifetime 838 ops guys against RHP and Chas is a lifetime 866 OPS guys against (LHP- and yes- I know Chas was bad last year- small sample blah blah blah).  1 year- 10M or something like that.  I'd go up to 2/24 or 2/30 as an absolute max- if he won't take that then another LHH LF that's good against RHP.

I'd turn 3b over to Dezenzo (I think he might actually be good). I'd tell Whitcomb he's a LF or a 1B now in case chas sucks or someone gets injured. I'd trot Jake out there in CF every day until Melton or Corona or Barber or someone like that supplanted him b/c again- Jake was worth 1.5 or 2.0 war depending upon who you believe as between BR and Fangraphs so him playing CF and hitting 9th is a good thing- not a bad thing- if the rest of the lineup is solid.  And- he's a cheap placeholder until someone from the minors can beat him out.  Lets hope Melton is better than I think he is. 

Proposed lineup:

Altuve (25)

Yordan (20)
Diaz  (1)

Tucker (18)

Walker (20)

Chas/Conforto (20)

Dezenzo (1)

Pena (5)

Meyers (3)

Bench- Caratini, Singleton, Dubon, Chas/Confoto.  (12M)  

That's a really solid squad.  That would cost you something like    125M for the position player segment not bad.  

And yes- I know there is some dead money- will talk about that in installment 3

 

 

 

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On the mound is my greatest source of hope and optimism about how the Astros are set to be pretty good and pretty inexpensive for a long time.  Lots of good news here.

Player                  Contract Status                         FA year (age)

Starters

Hunter Brown        4 years for 30M                       2028 (29)     Obviously the salary is projection.  An ace for 1M, 5M, 10M & 15M is what I'm projecting in arb. if that's wrong its by 5M total.  

Arrighetti               5 years for 30M                       2029 (29)  Boy we fucked this one up. He got service time for a year by like 5 days I believe.  That 5 days is the difference between saying goodbye after 2029 or after 2030.  That hurts bad.  I don't think they expected him to be this good.

Blanco                   5 for 20M                                 2029 (35).  No extension.  No extra money.  No worries about anything. This late bloomer looks like a quality MOR guy for minimum wage for 5 more years, that's super valuable.

Javier                     3 for 36M                                 2027 (30).  Figure 2025 is a waste.  If he gives you enough to pitch out of the bullpen that's a real weapon down the stretch but don't count on that. No reason not to start in 2026

LMJ                       2 for 34                                     2026 (32)  Has he thrown his last big league pitch?  Plan as if he has. I hope the contract is insured.  Anything you get from him is Gravy

Luis Garcia             2 for 10                                     2026 (29) Can't imagine he's not back to the same guy he was before injury by 26 with 2 full years. It's a straightforward surgery.  12-18 months.  He was on the 18 month side- that sucks.  Spring training will be 21 months out.  No reason not to expect him to be a quality MOR guy for 2 more years at short money.  

Framber-                1 for 20M                                  2025 (31)- Ace level for 20M is really valuable and good.  

Urquidy-    arb 3                                                     2025 (30)  You DFA him before you pay him 4 or 5M on the hopes that you get him back to pitch next August. I'd offer him a 2 for 6M contract if he was open to that- if not I'd DFA and tell him best of luck on the open market- thanks for 2 WS wins bro. 

Starters- You can count on (I believe) 2 aces making a combined 20M, 3 MOR guys making 7M combined, and then injury wildcards in France, Javier, LMJ making a combined 30M. If that 30M injury could be hand waived away you would be in such good shape.  If we get 200 competent innings out of those 3 guys then that's fine.

Bullpen:  

Hader                4 years- 76M                              2028 (34).  Yesh- not a great first year in a lot of ways.  You get him to be a boss man in the playoffs and that didn't happen.  Better luck next year.

Presley               1 year- 15M                                 2025 (36)  He's got 10/5 rights so you can't trade him unless he agrees. Personally, I'd make his life miserable enough that he'd agree. 

Abreu-               2 years- 12M                              2026 (29)   He made 1.75.  I'm projecting something like 4 and 8 in arbitration.  Maybe it's less, maybe it's a little more- I'm within 2M total though I would almost guarantee.  I'd offer him a 5 year, 40M extension to buy out the last two years of arb and then that would be worth something like 3/ 28M on the back end.  He might say no- in which case you say good luck. He might say yes in which case you have the 8th and 9th innings set for 4 years and 27M total from a LT perspective. That's not terrible in todays market.  

That's it for guys with money owed or that you guarantee are here (absent injury) through their arb years- the rest of the guys I'm just going to list when their service time is up:

Bryan King:  2029 (32)

Kaleb Ort:  2028 (36)

Taylor Scott:  2028 (36)

Penn Murfree:  2028 (34)

Seth Martinez:  2028 (33)

Forest Whitley:  2030 (32)

Shawn Dubin:  2028 (33)

Lost from this years team:  JV, Kikuchi, Graveman, Turd Ferguson, 

Waiting in the wings/Roster fodder (2025 edition):  Blubaugh, Gusto, Gordon, Suero, Coleman, Ortega, Souza, Kouba (injury stuff on the last 3 guys).

Keep an eye on (long term)  Ullola, Brito, Fleury, Pecko, too many others to mention- the astros are witches here. 

Prognosis:  I'd do everything I could to get Pressley out the door. I'd sign Kichuchi to something like 3/60M. That would be a bargain if he was the guy he was for the last 10 starts with the Astros. If he's not that guy anymore it's an overpay for a MOR starter which he's always been. If he gets hurt that's bad luck- what are you going to do.  

Proposed Lineup:  

Rotation:  Framber, Brown, Kicuchi (TOR guys)  MOR- Arrighetti, Blanco,  Absolutely should be back:  Garcia,  Might be back:  LMJ, Javier, France.  That's 6 guys you can count on, 3 health guys and at least 2 starters waiting in the wings I'm very bullish on to be decent at least.  45M from the guys through absolutely should be back- plus 30M in health concerns.  

Bullpen:  Hader, Abreu, Scott, Whitley, Murfree, pick 2 more from guys waiting in the wings etc.  

Summary:  Hunter Brown establishing himself as a TOR guy, Arrighetti an Blanco you have to be feeling really good about, breakout in the minors from Blubaugh, Ullola being a comer- man- the Astros have it really good here. We've been killed by injuries 2 years in a row.  If we get some of those guys back and right so that they are not just a black hole on the books while contributing nothing this goes from very very good part of the team to fantastic.  I couldn't be more excited about having 2 aces for not much money next year and 3 or 4 guys that make nothing that will be solid MOR guys with some ace potential. Keep the good thing going with Kichuchi and you have 3 ace types and 3 or 4 MOR types and it's not costing you all that much.  

If I had my way on the signing of kichuchi and getting rid of Presley (and urquidy) you are looking at something like $112M. That's pretty fantastic.

This org has proven it can develop guys from out of nowhere.  There was concern that with a new regime and new development staff maybe the train wouldn't roll on. It clearly has.  If things go reasonably this is a top 5-10 staff. If things break right for once this is the best collection of 1-13 guys in baseball with good quality depth to boot.  That's an enviable position and why I'm bullish on the Astros long term.  

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1 minute ago, kevwun said:

Pressly has lost a ton of velocity on his fastball and his breaking stuff is no longer even good, let alone filthy.  I'm not sure who you find as a trading partner.  You can't fix what he's no longer capable of.

 

per radio talk, his contract has a buyout. they guys were saying it’s $2mil. pay it and run 

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Overview on non field stuff:  WE have 30M in dead money between Abreu and Montero that are on the books for 1 more year.  Bite the bullet and move on, Crane, you made your bed and it's your fault- pretend that doesn't exist.  We have another 30M in money on the injured list in LMJ and Javier that you would be ecstatic if you got 80 or 100 innings out of- both those guys, were it I, would be ticketed to bullpen duty in 2025 if they were to come back.  LMJ forever (if he ever throws another pitch) and Javier until 2026 if he gets right. 
Your player development and pitching side of the organization is second to none- and it's got us in really good situation for another 5 years. 

Your GM was a great talent guy for the Braves, and so far he gets good marks on that in Houston. 
Your owner bit the bullet on Abreu and Montero- demonstrating it seems as if he's learned from those mistakes.
I'm not really sold on the manager, but, at least he fills out the lineup card the right way (progress) and isn't at war with the FO (also progress). We could (and have) done worse there, we also could do better (I miss you AJ- congrats you son of a bitch)

 

Conclusion:

We need a 1B and a 3B and a LF.  Or at least pieces if that to hit LH in LF and RHB at 1B. I can't imagine we re-sign Bregman (I would but whatever).  You should be able to turn LF and 1B into strengths instead of weaknesses in the offseason for something like 30M a year- total. If you do that (I gave my ideas- don't care who as long as they do it) then you are super star to above average at:  C, 1B, 2B, SS, DH, LF, RF.   You are below average, probably, at 3B and CF.  That happens to be where your best prospects in the minors (that should be ready in 25 and 26 respectively, and you probably need to let them have a chance to do it. 

You should probably sign Kichuchi- if not him then I can't imagine anyone else making more sense.  You have 2 aces in Brown and Framber. You have really good MOR coverage in Blanco and Arrighetti. You have Garcia who should join those 2. You have some talented potential wild cards injured and you have some guys in the minors that I have a ton of confidence in going forward.  All signs are in place for a really really good 2025 team if you don't get super unlucky again.  

I would say that there is enough talent signed up cheap through 2028 that the Astros SHOULD be WS contenders for the next 4 years.  Yordan, Diaz, Altuve, Pena (for 3 of 4 years), Brown, Arrighetti, Blanco, Hader are all through 2028.  You have a bunch of pitching guys that you should feel good about.  Dana is doing good work in the minors.  You will be good throughout if you can make 2 or 3 good FA signings and develop 5 or 6 average players out of the current farm, and 1 star would be nice. I think they have the development system and raw talent to do it. 

Star level chances:  Ullola, Melton (I'm betting against but dana is smarter than me) Matthews, Sam Houston Catcher, Baez, Dezenzo- that's 6 cracks at a star- 1 of them needs to hit- two would be a lot better.  

Could be MLB regular good- the above 6, plus Blubaugh, about 5 or 6 other pitchers, Whitcomb, etc.  

1 star, 2 good FA signings and 5 or 6 2 war type run of the mill regular starters and the organization will be on year 14 or 15 of competing for a WS.  That's pretty awesome.  

 

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Unfortunately, Pressly's option vested by making enough appearances this year. The $2M buyout is no longer an option. We're stuck with paying him $14M next year, and he has a no-trade clause. Hopefully they'll at least realize he's longer a reliable 8th inning setup guy.

From parsing the quotes at today's post-exit presser:

1. They know we need to upgrade 1B and CF and likely replace Bregman at 3B. Sounds like they intend to fill one or two of those spots cheaply with players currently in the system in order to have flexibility to spend some $$ for a FA at the other. Brice Matthews and Jacob Melton's names were specifically mentioned as players that could spend time in Houston this year. I'd assume we see Dezenzo at 3B to start the year. Guessing maybe we sign a veteran FA at 1B to take over starting duties and demote Singleton to backup and hopefully trade for a CF.

2. Hitting coaches may or may not be on the hot seat. Both Espada and Dana talked about how we "got away from our identity" at the plate by being too aggressive and not drawing out longer AB's. We ended up 27th in BB taken and 29th in pitches per plate appearance. Despite being a Top 3 team in terms of getting hits, we were middle of the pack when it came to scoring runs. Far too many innings this season started with a leadoff single/double and then the inning would be over 6-7 pitches later without the runner advancing.

 

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Next year’s and future teams will have to be built around pitching based on what our system churns out, so for the love of God, can we focus on improving our defense? If we’re not scoring runs anyway, let’s at least have good defenders. Otherwise, we’re diminishing the strength of the club. We were absolutely shit in the field this season.

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My 2 cents. Let Bregman walk and resign Tucker. Resign Kikuchi and go with the rest of the staff under contract. Thanks JV, but it's time to start your HOF countdown, or find another team to pay you. With the pitchers we had this year, and hopefully some that will come back healthy next year, I like where we are on the mound. If we can trade Presley we should, but not sure we'll get much. We need to find some bats to add, so we need to find some that can play 1st and OF and maybe 3rd, although I thought Dezenzo showed promise in his rookie outing. He's got work to do, but I think he makes 3rd base a lower priority behind 1st and OF. Chas had a horrible year and maybe he'll bounce back next year. I'm done with Myers.

I think this mirrors much of what others have already posted. Sadly we don't have a lot of money to spend so hopefully they spend it wisely. 

On Espada, and where I'm sure many will disagree. He made some gawd awful decisions this year, so hopefully he will learn from them. IMO some that looked really bad were due to a lack of options (when you want to PH and nobody on the bench is hitting worth shit, who do you pick) or players just didn't execute when averages and metrics say that they should. It's easy to call it a bad decision when it doesn't work out, but that doesn't mean another manager would make a different one. But again, that doesn't excuse the horrible decisions he did make. He was a 1st year manager, and it showed way too many times. I don't think you get rid of him after one year, unless he's lost the team, which I don't think he has. 

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15 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

why would you trade tucker and framber ?

when’s the last time a division winner traded their #1/2 bat and #1 pitcher ?

why would you sign a 37 yo goldschmidt ???? didn’t you learn anything from abreu. sliding numbers the past 3 years, 37 yo, fuck me. signing old guys is not the way, that’s the for sure you kill off a run.

we need young blood, young fast guys, some pop in their bat. 

chas is not a starting mlb OF, we have to have a younger guy that can be the #4 OF ??

You trade Tucker so he doesn't walk after next year and you get nothing.

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