24/25 Astros Offseason thread

[Scraps 13560]

Trading Tucker = Trading Soto scenario the Padres were in....just not gonna get the same haul back.

I would be fine trading him because i think the pull back will be nice and cause I see no way in hell he stays here past next season.

[hornmpa96 2618]

With respect to Espada, I think this team was desperate after the start and he overused the backend of the bullpen as a result. For the playoffs, a team may only need 4 guys in the pen but you need everyone to survive 162 games. Hopefully he will spread some of the work out and let Hader stick to more comfortable situations.

Also I don’t realize that Abreu had 7 blown saves while Pressly had 8. It didn’t seem like that number should have been close.

[Hornsbay22 467]

Do we move Altuve to LF and let Brice Matthews take over at 2B?

[David Dennison 18837]

3 minutes ago, Hornsbay22 said:

Do we move Altuve to LF and let Brice Matthews take over at 2B?

[Beau Vine 54203]

1 hour ago, hornmpa96 said:

Also I don’t realize that Abreu had 7 blown saves while Pressly had 8. It didn’t seem like that number should have been close.

The Blown Saves stat is terrible in baseball.  If a pitcher enters in the top 7th with a 3-2 lead and gives up a run, it's a Blown Save.

 

[UTexasFight 9425]

6 hours ago, Scraps said:

For the 3rd season in a row:

I would sign Profar to play LF
 

Not anymore. We dicked around and probably can’t afford to live in that neighborhood anymore (I mean we can, but have much bigger holes to fill first)

[Pimphand 5732]

Since this postseason was an absolute turd the only asks I have left are anyone but the Yankees & Dodgers.  The Phillies are probably the least tolerable of the tolerable teams but they are not in the same universe as the other two shitbirds.

[tx 3 putt 76859]

altuve’s defense is an issue. if he stops that ball, we probably win the gamen

[UTexasFight 9425]

1 hour ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Just like we’re about to watch Bregman walk. 

At least we get the QO draft prick…

 

Speaking of, losing our 2nd rounder this year and half a mill international signing bonus money on Hader stings even more after yesterday (as well as the $750k international pool money we sent the Yankees for Turd).

Not great bob  when you’re trying to rebuild the farm and hamstringing the thing your GM is best at

Edited October 3 by UTexasFight

[Snake Diggity 4619]

Star hitters (3): Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker

Good hitters (1): Diaz

Below average hitters (1): Caratini

Pena is a star hitter against lefties but a below average hitter against righties

Singleton is an above average hitter against righties but an unplayable hitter against lefties

Meyers is an above average hitter against lefties but a poor hitter against righties

Dubon is an average hitter against lefties but a poor hitter against righties

Prior to this season, McCormick was a superstar hitter against lefties and an average hitter against righties; this season he was unplayable against both

Dezenzo has a very high upside but also a very low ceiling, and he likely will be a below average defender if used at 3B.  He would likely be an average defender at 1B, LF, or RF.

Whitcomb could potentially be a plus player in LF or 1B.  He would be average at 2B or RF and nearly-unplayable at 3B or SS.

No other position player prospects should be expected to meaningfully contribute in early 2025, but there are several top prospects who could become key contributors in the 2nd half of next season (Brice Matthews, Pedro Leon, Jacob Melton, Kenedy Corona, Zach Cole, Jeron Williams, Luis Baez).  Kessinger, Salazar, Cabbage, and Hummel are DFA candidates you hope to stash in AAA.

In terms of lineup, the Astros actually project to have a really good lineup against lefties.  But against righties they need 2 bats, 1 who can hit in the top 4 and one who can hit in the 5-7 range.  Those bats need to be able to play OF or 3B.

Tor SP (2): Framber, Brown

MoR SP (2): Blanco, Garcia

BoR SP (1): Arrighetti 

Closers (2): Hader, Abreu

Setup (1): Pressly

MR (6): Scott, Ort, King, Dubin, Martinez, Murfee

Whitley and Sousa are out of options RP who have pretty high ceilings.  Gusto, Ortega, Hernandez, France, and Contreras are guys you want stashed in AAA.  No other young pitchers should be expected to meaningfully contribute early in 2025, but there’s over a dozen arms who could help in the 2nd half of next season (led by Blubaugh, Ullola, and Gordon).

Javier is expected back in July.  Lance McCullers passed away a few years ago.

The pitching staff is really good as-is.  But given the injury risk across the board, ideally there’d be another quality SP added to that mix, one whom you don’t mind starting a playoff game.

I like the chatter around trading for Lowe from TB.  The OF and SP markets seem deep enough that a team that spends wisely will get good value.

[HtownHorn 14663]

1 hour ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

Just like we’re about to watch Bregman walk. 

We had Bregman signed to a long term deal. Also, it's different to let a 27 year old in his prime walk compared to a 30 year old showing obvious signs of decline.

[tx 3 putt 76859]

 

[tx 3 putt 76859]

good stuff, he did 3 segments ….

 

[Beau Vine 54203]

Just saying...

[Gut Wagon 8064]

34 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Not anymore. We dicked around and probably can’t afford to live in that neighborhood anymore (I mean we can, but have much bigger holes to fill first)

I never understood why we didn't go after Profar last winter. He signed for peanuts, relative to his level of play. Maybe there was some other factor involved, but that looks like some of the best money any team spent leading into 2024. 

[Scraps 13560]

Not anymore. We dicked around and probably can’t afford to live in that neighborhood anymore (I mean we can, but have much bigger holes to fill first)

Do we? 1b and 3b FA options suck ass.

I expect nothing but the same at 1b....diaz, caratini, dezenzo, singleton circle jerk.

I mean I would be cool with O'hearn, but its not like he is a badass or anything.

3B i would just sign Urshela on the cheap cause he at least won't make 4 errors in one game.

I don't have much hope for this offseason based on our $, the FA available, and bagwell.

[David Dennison 18837]

27 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

We had Bregman signed to a long term deal. Also, it's different to let a 27 year old in his prime walk compared to a 30 year old showing obvious signs of decline.

We will miss his defense more than we miss him in the lineup.

[tx 3 putt 76859]

cardinals are in dump mode, nolan arrendondo has ties to this team 🤔🤔🤔

Edited October 3 by tx 3 putt

[Scraps 13560]

cardinals are in dump mode, nolan arrendondo has ties to this team 

Might as well sign Bregman if you want to take on that contract

[LCHorn 2612]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

cardinals are in dump mode, nolan arrendondo has ties to this team 🤔🤔🤔

I would certainly kick the tires on how much the Cardinals would cover but agree with @Scraps.  I was checking their roster a couple of days ago to see if there was a useful 2nd piece to a trade (besides maybe Contreras who I’ve never liked) and their roster is otherwise a bad match.  
 

Position scarcity is one reason why I’d give Bregman whatever it takes and trade Tucker before he leaves for nothing.

[cabowabo 4484]

I'd love to have Bregman back. Some team is going to over pay him for his services. I doubt that team will be Houston and hope it isn't. If he had showed up the first half of the season, maybe we could have avoided the wild card series.

[WBT 20559]

4 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

The Blown Saves stat is terrible in baseball.  If a pitcher enters in the top 7th with a 3-2 lead and gives up a run, it's a Blown Save.

 

I can assure you that they did indeed blow the game even if it was the 7th or 8th

[tx 3 putt 76859]

7 minutes ago, cabowabo said:

I'd love to have Bregman back. Some team is going to over pay him for his services. I doubt that team will be Houston and hope it isn't. If he had showed up the first half of the season, maybe we could have avoided the wild card series.

 

tigers go after him and a team friendly deal on verlander 

[WBT 20559]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

top prospects who could become key contributors in the 2nd half of next season (Brice Matthews, Pedro Leon, Jacob Melton, Kenedy Corona, Zach Cole, Jeron Williams, Luis Baez)

How many years has that been the story for Leon?  Feels like outfield Whitley.

[Gut Wagon 8064]

I'd rather lose the way we did than the way Milwaukee did. Especially if it were against the Mets. Not that I'm still bitter about 1986. 

[WBT 20559]

1 minute ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'd rather lose the way we did than the way Milwaukee did. Especially if it were against the Mets. Not that I'm still bitter about 1986. 

Too soon

[cabowabo 4484]

3 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'd rather lose the way we did than the way Milwaukee did. Especially if it were against the Mets. Not that I'm still bitter about 1986. 

I was just thinking the same thing. 100% agree. 

[tx 3 putt 76859]

 

[David Dennison 18837]

21 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'd rather lose the way we did than the way Milwaukee did. Especially if it were against the Mets. Not that I'm still bitter about 1986. 

We kinda sorta lost a WS that way.

 

[tx 3 putt 76859]

15 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

I'd rather lose the way we did than the way Milwaukee did. Especially if it were against the Mets. Not that I'm still bitter about 1986. 

[Snake Diggity 4619]

4 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

cardinals are in dump mode, nolan arrendondo has ties to this team 🤔🤔🤔

Willson Contreras is probably a better fit.  An elite bat who could split 1B/C with Diaz to get them both in the lineup everyday.  Contreras could probably play LF too if they made him.  He’s got a palatable contract at $51M/3yrs plus a team option.

[Scraps 13560]

Not to be a bitch but watching highlights of that Alonso homer and different tweets posted by mets watch parties and shit is the feeling i miss the most by getting knocked out. Not much (other than the obvious nsfw answer) beats the euphoria of seeing your team do something like that and we have been fortunate to have a lot of those moments these past 8 years, but just sucks we won't get any this year.

Hell i still think I am rockin a bone from Yordans seattle walk off and the WS game 6 donger.

Can't wait til the next moment.

[David Dennison 18837]

28 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Not to be a bitch but watching highlights of that Alonso homer and different tweets posted by mets watch parties and shit is the feeling i miss the most by getting knocked out. Not much (other than the obvious nsfw answer) beats the euphoria of seeing your team do something like that and we have been fortunate to have a lot of those moments these past 8 years, but just sucks we won't get any this year.

Hell i still think I am rockin a bone from Yordans seattle walk off and the WS game 6 donger.

Can't wait til the next moment.

I started going to Astros games in the 70s. I've really, really, really enjoyed being spoiled rotten for the better part of a decade.

 

[Murfdogg21 4412]

If Bregman would agree to 6/$150ish like Chapman, trading Tucker makes more sense if they can get a good package, and apply the ~$18m they would’ve paid him in 2025 to signing FA at 1B and OF, hopefully net improvement to offense. 

[tx 3 putt 76859]

we need to be better roster on day 1

[tx 3 putt 76859]

if crane has his mind set on a 2025 WS run, i don’t see him moving tucker or framber 

2026 is the rebuild year with freed up dead money 

a healthy tucker this year and we’re probably #1 al seed 

[HtownHorn 14663]

7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

if crane has his mind set on a 2025 WS run, i don’t see him moving tucker or framber 

2026 is the rebuild year with freed up dead money 

a healthy tucker this year and we’re probably #1 al seed 

The problem with that is that Tucker and Framber suck in the playoffs. We now have multiple years of data.

[LCHorn 2612]

14 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

The problem with that is that Tucker and Framber suck in the playoffs. We now have multiple years of data.

So did Biggio until 2004.  There’s nothing about either’s skillset that supports an argument their shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.  

[David Dennison 18837]

30 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

if crane has his mind set on a 2025 WS run, i don’t see him moving tucker or framber 

2026 is the rebuild year with freed up dead money 

a healthy tucker this year and we’re probably #1 al seed 

Not after that start.

[Scraps 13560]

31 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

if crane has his mind set on a 2025 WS run, i don’t see him moving tucker or framber 

2026 is the rebuild year with freed up dead money 

a healthy tucker this year and we’re probably #1 al seed 

2025 should be the rebuild start year.  As much as I love winning, it has never made us sellers which does not help long term.  Do I want to win 100 games?  Absolutely, but I would also be fine with missing the playoffs next season if it means they are a seller in 2025 and get back some prospects for whoever we can that is reasonable to trade (Tucker, Pressly, Framber) 

You can grab some prospects, and go into 2026 be in a much better position.    No real reason to prolong this a season when we have assets that would garner future needs. 

[tx 3 putt 76859]

2025 would be a quicker rebuild, i agree 

if pitching can stay healthy, this team will be in the mix

has any team ever thrown 162 no hitters in a row ?

[WBT 20559]

35 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

The problem with that is that Tucker and Framber suck in the playoffs.

[tx 3 putt 76859]

it takes 162 game to get to the playoffs, it’s a grind. those numbers matter 

[UTexasFight 9425]

54 minutes ago, Scraps said:

2025 should be the rebuild start year.  As much as I love winning, it has never made us sellers which does not help long term.  Do I want to win 100 games?  Absolutely, but I would also be fine with missing the playoffs next season if it means they are a seller in 2025 and get back some prospects for whoever we can that is reasonable to trade (Tucker, Pressly, Framber) 

You can grab some prospects, and go into 2026 be in a much better position.    No real reason to prolong this a season when we have assets that would garner future needs. 

I’m almost completely sold on the 2025 rebuild and let Dana do what he does best and cash in on Framber, Tucker and Pressly trades on the offseason.

Those three should bring back a substantial haul of very near-MLB ready talent combined with some close to sure fire young MiLB prospects and possibly a lotto ticket or two.

hell, see if anyone will bite on Montero if we eat the contract in exchange of a low-A type lottery ticket. 

play your cards right and you’re not much different, on paper, than the Tigers this year. And combined with playing in the AL West there should be a realistic chance of winning the division even without those three. 
 

The gravy on top for all of us that have been along for this entire run is that it lowers the expectations. Call it loser /Mack Brown “too much winning is bad for you” talk if you want but I think I’d welcome a season of tuning in and just enjoying the games, not expecting us to win every single night and complaining when we’re x games out of first in late May.

The alternative (holding on to all 3, or moving them in late July) sets you back by 2-4 years probably instead of 1-2. And, if it doesn’t put you in good position to have one of the top 2 seeds, you’re in the exact same place as this year which nothing to show for it (except for maybe another Framber no-hitter and an extra year of Framber and Tucker jersey sales which means nothing ).

Trading those 3 is the fastest way I can think of re-supplying the farm system after the draft pick penalties and near decade of being buyers.

 

Edited October 4 by UTexasFight

[Gut Wagon 8064]

Might seem crazy, but right now reminds me a little of where we were after losing the World Series in 2005. We were so weak offensively then that I was begging for an immediate teardown to hasten the rebuild. Of course, McLane didn't want to do anything that bold. So we quickly sank into the abyss and stayed there for many years. 

I think our current roster is a bit younger than that one, and we of course have far more nice banners flying. But we're also at a crossroads. None of us wants to keep making the playoffs just to make them. We have to add firepower and shore up a leaky defense. 

[HtownHorn 14663]

17 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Might seem crazy, but right now reminds me a little of where we were after losing the World Series in 2005. We were so weak offensively then that I was begging for an immediate teardown to hasten the rebuild. Of course, McLane didn't want to do anything that bold. So we quickly sank into the abyss and stayed there for many years. 

I think our current roster is a bit younger than that one, and we of course have far more nice banners flying. But we're also at a crossroads. None of us wants to keep making the playoffs just to make them. We have to add firepower and shore up a leaky defense. 

This is exactly the same scenario. Let's see if Crane learned anything from McLane. If he did, trading Tucker and Framber would be the correct action.

[Snake Diggity 4619]

2 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

I’m almost completely sold on the 2025 rebuild and let Dana do what he does best and cash in on Framber, Tucker and Pressly trades on the offseason.

Those three should bring back a substantial haul of very near-MLB ready talent combined with some close to sure fire young MiLB prospects and possibly a lotto ticket or two.

hell, see if anyone will bite on Montero if we eat the contract in exchange of a low-A type lottery ticket. 

play your cards right and you’re not much different, on paper, than the Tigers this year. And combined with playing in the AL West there should be a realistic chance of winning the division even without those three. 
 

The gravy on top for all of us that have been along for this entire run is that it lowers the expectations. Call it loser /Mack Brown “too much winning is bad for you” talk if you want but I think I’d welcome a season of tuning in and just enjoying the games, not expecting us to win every single night and complaining when we’re x games out of first in late May.

The alternative (holding on to all 3, or moving them in late July) sets you back by 2-4 years probably instead of 1-2. And, if it doesn’t put you in good position to have one of the top 2 seeds, you’re in the exact same place as this year which nothing to show for it (except for maybe another Framber no-hitter and an extra year of Framber and Tucker jersey sales which means nothing ).

Trading those 3 is the fastest way I can think of re-supplying the farm system after the draft pick penalties and near decade of being buyers.

 

It is incredibly difficult to begin an effective rebuild when a team has 2 hall of fame caliber players (like Altuve and Alvarez) under long term control.  When you have 2 players that good, the overwhelming odds favor building around them immediately.  You don’t trade players like Framber or Tucker in that situation.  Pressly may very well be traded, but it would be mostly a salary dump; his return will likely not have a meaningful impact on the farm system.  The Astros underwent a shitload of bad injury luck in 2024.  Without that they likely win the division going away and are in the ALDS.  Heck, even with all the injuries, if Jose Abreu hits like he did prior to 2023, they are probably in the ALDS and nobody is talking about rebuilding.  You don’t tear things down when you’re that close.  If they were going to do a pre-emptive rebuild, the time to do it was last offseason, when they could have gotten monster hauls for Framber, Tucker, and Bregman, and entered 2025 with the top farm system in baseball.  That ship has sailed.  Another thing to note is that their farm has been recovering from lost draft picks for 3-4 seasons now.  After the next draft will be the first time the Astros will have had a full complement of prospects in their farm since 2020.  And despite that the farm has continued to produce 2nd and 3rd tier major leaguers. 
 

The Astros have ~$40M to spend and need 2-3 good players in order to be legit contenders.  Crane needs to stay out of roster construction decisions.  But it’s doable.

1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

Might seem crazy, but right now reminds me a little of where we were after losing the World Series in 2005. We were so weak offensively then that I was begging for an immediate teardown to hasten the rebuild. Of course, McLane didn't want to do anything that bold. So we quickly sank into the abyss and stayed there for many years. 

I think our current roster is a bit younger than that one, and we of course have far more nice banners flying. But we're also at a crossroads. None of us wants to keep making the playoffs just to make them. We have to add firepower and shore up a leaky defense. 

You can do a player by player comparison of the organization in 2005 vs today and it’s light years difference.  There was no Yordan-level player with 4 years of control in 2005.  The farm in 2005 had been utterly neglected by McLane for years and was completely barren; that’s not the case today.

The Astros are surefire playoff contenders next season.  The moves they make over the offseason will determine if they improve into championship contenders.  Even if 2025 doesn’t work out, they can enter 2026 with a clear payroll and 2 extra picks in the upcoming draft, plus another year of Brown restocking the farm. 
 

One other opinion: Framber and Tucker don’t have much more value now than they will in July, so Houston may as well see if they can make one more run for a ring, because they can also start the rebuild at the deadline if things don’t go their way.

Edited October 4 by Snake Diggity

[tx 3 putt 76859]

1 hour ago, Gut Wagon said:

Might seem crazy, but right now reminds me a little of where we were after losing the World Series in 2005. We were so weak offensively then that I was begging for an immediate teardown to hasten the rebuild. Of course, McLane didn't want to do anything that bold. So we quickly sank into the abyss and stayed there for many years. 

I think our current roster is a bit younger than that one, and we of course have far more nice banners flying. But we're also at a crossroads. None of us wants to keep making the playoffs just to make them. We have to add firepower and shore up a leaky defense. 

 

this team has much better pitching 

[tx 3 putt 76859]

astros tommy john strikes again

 

[UTexasFight 9425]

Brutal

love that dude