24/25 Astros Offseason thread

[Gut Wagon 8,064]

9 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

It is incredibly difficult to begin an effective rebuild when a team has 2 hall of fame caliber players (like Altuve and Alvarez) under long term control.  When you have 2 players that good, the overwhelming odds favor building around them immediately.  You don’t trade players like Framber or Tucker in that situation.  Pressly may very well be traded, but it would be mostly a salary dump; his return will likely not have a meaningful impact on the farm system.  The Astros underwent a shitload of bad injury luck in 2024.  Without that they likely win the division going away and are in the ALDS.  Heck, even with all the injuries, if Jose Abreu hits like he did prior to 2023, they are probably in the ALDS and nobody is talking about rebuilding.  You don’t tear things down when you’re that close.  If they were going to do a pre-emptive rebuild, the time to do it was last offseason, when they could have gotten monster hauls for Framber, Tucker, and Bregman, and entered 2025 with the top farm system in baseball.  That ship has sailed.  Another thing to note is that their farm has been recovering from lost draft picks for 3-4 seasons now.  After the next draft will be the first time the Astros will have had a full complement of prospects in their farm since 2020.  And despite that the farm has continued to produce 2nd and 3rd tier major leaguers. 
 

The Astros have ~$40M to spend and need 2-3 good players in order to be legit contenders.  Crane needs to stay out of roster construction decisions.  But it’s doable.

You can do a player by player comparison of the organization in 2005 vs today and it’s light years difference.  There was no Yordan-level player with 4 years of control in 2005.  The farm in 2005 had been utterly neglected by McLane for years and was completely barren; that’s not the case today.

The Astros are surefire playoff contenders next season.  The moves they make over the offseason will determine if they improve into championship contenders.  Even if 2025 doesn’t work out, they can enter 2026 with a clear payroll and 2 extra picks in the upcoming draft, plus another year of Brown restocking the farm. 
 

One other opinion: Framber and Tucker don’t have much more value now than they will in July, so Houston may as well see if they can make one more run for a ring, because they can also start the rebuild at the deadline if things don’t go their way.

 

6 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

this team has much better pitching 

I actually agree with all the above. That's why I said the current situation reminds me "a bit" of 2005. It's absolutely not an exact overlay — more a reference to this being a time of key decisions that will dictate where we find ourselves a few years out. Most franchises could say that at any time, I guess, but to me it's critical that we gain several solid pieces via trade AND free agency. As much as I love Framber, I trust him little more in October than I did JV. As for Tucker, just get all you can, when you can.

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

I did a quick Pareto analysis of the surplus value of the organizational roster going into 2017 vs 2025.  Here’s a summary:

1. The 2025 org has much less payroll flexibility, even if they have comparable total surplus value.

2. The 2017 org had significantly more surplus value in its MLB lineup, but the 2025 org makes up for almost all of that with more surplus value in its MLB pitching staff.  In total, the difference at the big league level amounts to one really good player under cheap long term control.

3. The difference in the farm systems boils down to 2-3 elite prospects.  The depth is very comparable (with the benefit of hindsight).  2017 had Tucker, Alvarez, Framber, and Javier in the system, but at that point only Tucker was thought of as an elite prospect.  2017 was a highly rated farm, but many of the top prospects like Francis Martes, Forrest Whitley, David Paulino, Derek Fisher, and others didn’t pan out.

[WBT 20,559]

2 hours ago, Gut Wagon said:

As much as I love Framber, I trust him little more in October than I did JV. As for Tucker, just get all you can, when you can.

Damn memories are short around here.  Framber carried us on the pitching side to the '22 ring.

[HtownHorn 14,663]

We really need two from the following list to become a dependable MLB caliber players ala Pena or Diaz.

Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Melton, and Matthews.

Edited October 5 by HtownHorn

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

20 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

We really need two from the following list to become a dependable MLB caliber players ala Pena or Diaz.

Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Melton, and Matthews.

Reality is that if Houston wants to contend after next season, they need at least one legit superstar prospect to emerge or 2-3 stars to emerge.  As good as Pena and Diaz are, they are nowhere near as valuable as Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Springer and Alvarez were when they came up.  Houston needs a guy in that tier to develop if they wanna withstand losing Framber and Tucker, unless Crane goes full Cohen.

[HtownHorn 14,663]

6 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Reality is that if Houston wants to contend after next season, they need at least one legit superstar prospect to emerge or 2-3 stars to emerge.  As good as Pena and Diaz are, they are nowhere near as valuable as Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Springer and Alvarez were when they came up.  Houston needs a guy in that tier to develop if they wanna withstand losing Framber and Tucker, unless Crane goes full Cohen.

You are underrating Pena big time here. He's not seen as the same as Correa, but has outproduced him in WAR 12.9 to 10.4 over the last 3 years.

The biggest flaw in Pena's offense is his BB%, which is fixable. Likely with a different hitting coaches than the Astros currently have, those two guys saw regression across the board, they should be fired for it.

He also had the 5th most chances among SSs in baseball and all their fielding percentages where in the same ballpark, except Tovar who had an incredible defensive season.

[Gut Wagon 8,064]

28 minutes ago, WBT said:

Damn memories are short around here.  Framber carried us on the pitching side to the '22 ring.

Oh, I remember. He was really good that fall. I'm just trying to project how he's likely to perform in postseasons to come. That's obviously conjecture, but his random hiccups in big moments since '22 have given me pause. So I wouldn't mind trading him between now and the '25 deadline and seeing what he'd fetch. Unlike Valdez, Brown still has a lot of room to grow and already is TOR quality.

[WBT 20,559]

17 minutes ago, Gut Wagon said:

Oh, I remember. He was really good that fall. I'm just trying to project how he's likely to perform in postseasons to come. That's obviously conjecture, but his random hiccups in big moments since '22 have given me pause. So I wouldn't mind trading him between now and the '25 deadline and seeing what he'd fetch. Unlike Valdez, Brown still has a lot of room to grow and already is TOR quality.

He had random hiccups before '22 and then a great start in the '21 ALCS to get us to that WS.  Playoff performance is a crapshoot, just like any other 2-3 game sample would be.

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

You are underrating Pena big time here. He's not seen as the same as Correa, but has outproduced him in WAR 12.9 to 10.4 over the last 3 years.

The biggest flaw in Pena's offense is his BB%, which is fixable. Likely with a different hitting coaches than the Astros currently have, those two guys saw regression across the board, they should be fired for it.

He also had the 5th most chances among SSs in baseball and all their fielding percentages where in the same ballpark, except Tovar who had an incredible defensive season.

Pena is 1800 pa into his career and is an exactly league average hitter.  His defense regressed for the 2nd consecutive season.  He is a good, valuable player, but he is not a star; he was the 20th most valuable SS in the league this season (fwar).   True contenders have a guy like Pena as their 7th or 8th best hitter and 5th or 6th most valuable position player.  Guys like that supplement an open competitive window, they don’t keep it open.

[Murfdogg21 4,412]

2 hours ago, WBT said:

Damn memories are short around here.  Framber carried us on the pitching side to the '22 ring.

That’s what I got yesterday. What do I get tomorrow?

I bet Framber would crush at a nachos eating contest. 

[HtownHorn 14,663]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Pena is 1800 pa into his career and is an exactly league average hitter.  His defense regressed for the 2nd consecutive season.  He is a good, valuable player, but he is not a star; he was the 20th most valuable SS in the league this season (fwar).   True contenders have a guy like Pena as their 7th or 8th best hitter and 5th or 6th most valuable position player.  Guys like that supplement an open competitive window, they don’t keep it open.

And according to bWAR he was the 33rd most valuable player in all of baseball, and it's interesting you mentioned that he was 20th ranked SS in fWAR but that put him at 71st in all of baseball. Nice use of statistics to tell your side of the story. I never said he was a star, but we aren't missing Correa with him at SS either, and was the main offensive reason we won a title in 2022.

Edited October 5 by HtownHorn

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

pena need to grow and improve, he’s not going anywhere 

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

9 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

And according to bWAR he was the 33rd most valuable player in all of baseball, and it's interesting you mentioned that he was 20th ranked SS in fWAR but that put him at 71st in all of baseball. Nice use of statistics to tell your side of the story. I never said he was a star, but we aren't missing Correa with him at SS either, and was the main offensive reason we won a title in 2022.

There’s no argument that Pena is an adequate replacement for Correa in a vacuum. For 3 of his 7 seasons in Houston, Correa was one of the 4 best SS in the game; for the others, he was still more valuable than Pena has ever been.  Pena has been fine and Houston has continued to win with him at SS, but that’s because of how incredible Yordan and Tucker (and to a lesser degree Altuve and Bregman) have been in making up the difference.  
 

Pena was actually the 87th most valuable position player in the league (fwar, all players), putting him in a group with such studs as…Miguel Rojas, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Smith, and Jonathan India.

He’s a good player; an exactly average hitter who fields the toughest position on the field at an above average level.  But he’s not somebody keeping the window open, he’s a significant downgrade from Correa, and he’s at the age and experience where we can’t expect him to be more than that.  You can say we haven’t missed Correa, but I think this teams fortunes sure would have been different this season if they’d had Correa instead of Pena.
 

Last thought that is worth mentioning: Pena has been excellent against LHP.  He is a star level player against lefties.  But he’s a league average SS against RHP.

Edited October 5 by Snake Diggity

[WBT 20,559]

feels weird not to have a game today

[Rockethorn1978 6,072]

Watching this opening game hopefully shows our FO how fucking bad our offense is. 

[UTPhil2006 3,801]

We need new hitting coaches. Hell just hire everyone the DBacks just let go 

[wood 11,225]

On 10/3/2024 at 5:01 PM, Snake Diggity said:

Pena is a star hitter against lefties but a below average hitter against righties

Yeah because lefties can't throw him a 2-strike slider or sweeper that's  6" to a foot off the plate, knowing he'll chase it every.single.time. FML.

Edited October 6 by wood

[wood 11,225]

On 10/3/2024 at 10:38 PM, David Dennison said:

I started going to Astros games in the 70s. I've really, really, really enjoyed being spoiled rotten for the better part of a decade.

 

Este. Nearing 50 years of Astros fandom for me, too.

[UTexasFight 9,426]

I’m think I’m going to torture myself by not having Astros October baseball in 2024 by reliving great moments from this latest run as we come up on the anniversary of those games.

5 years ago. Cole K’s 15 (T-3 most in MLB postseason history)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU201910050.shtml

 

Quote

Cole (1-0), who led the majors with 326 strikeouts in the regular season, extended his major league record with his 10th straight game with at least 10 Ks. The Rays were unable to string anything together off of him on a night he induced 33 swings and misses — the most since MLB started tracking the stat in 2008 — and threw a career-high 118 pitches.

Was at that game and #2 on this list:

 

[Muny_Tex 293]

^^^That was one of the most "fun" games of the whole dynasty in terms of stadium atmosphere.   It was a Saturday night, and unusually late start (8pm IIRC?) and lot of people (myself included) were unusually hammered...even in the typically chill lower level sections.

Game began almost immediately with a brilliant 10/10 play by Correa from deep in the hole and the crowd volume never calmed down after that.  Cole was absolutely masterful, and it seemed like he was pumping the K's with even higher frequency as he emptied the tank in the 8th....felt to me like 8/9 of his last ten pitches were all gas right near 100.

It will always remain amazing to me how completely unbeatable the 2019 team was....until they weren't.

Edited October 6 by Muny_Tex

[David Dennison 18,837]

2 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

I’m think I’m going to torture myself by not having Astros October baseball in 2024 by reliving great moments from this latest run as we come up on the anniversary of those games.

5 years ago. Cole K’s 15 (T-3 most in MLB postseason history)

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU201910050.shtml

 

Was at that game and #2 on this list:

 

1986 NLCS Game 1: Was there.

[UTexasFight 9,426]

46 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

^^^That was one of the most "fun" games of the whole dynasty in terms of stadium atmosphere.   It was a Saturday night, and unusually late start (8pm IIRC?) and lot of people (myself included) were unusually hammered...even in the typically chill lower level sections.

Game began almost immediately with a brilliant 10/10 play by Correa from deep in the hole and the crowd volume never calmed down after that.  Cole was absolutely masterful, and it seemed like he was pumping the K's with even higher frequency as he emptied the tank in the 8th....felt to me like 8/9 of his last ten pitches were all gas right near 100.

It will always remain amazing to me how completely unbeatable the 2019 team was....until they weren't.

Yeah great memory.

It was an 8pm first pitch.

definitely the best seats I’ve ever had for a playoff game.

 

 

I originally had seats in the nosebleeds for my gf and I and then got offered an upgrade for myself. She ended up bringing a friend and they used the nosebleeds and had a blast with the group around them.

I just remember being anxious with the offense not giving him any support and just knowing it was going to be one of those games we should have won but blew it by not not getting more run support when we had the chance. 
 

Here was K #15

 

 

 

[UTexasFight 9,426]

10/6/2015

The start of the run.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/10/07/american-league-wild-card-game-astros-defeat-yankees-dallas-keuchel
 

 

 

 

Edited October 6 by UTexasFight

[Focht Up 631]

1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

10/6/2015

The start of the run.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/10/07/american-league-wild-card-game-astros-defeat-yankees-dallas-keuchel
 

 

 

 

813FBAE3-A895-4951-8542-9562157AE0DE2015-10-06_23-41-57_856.mov 38.18 MB · 0 downloads

 

We need to get back to that kind of pitching, or something close to it.

[UTexasFight 9,426]

10/7/2021

It’s hard to believe now, but the White Sox actually recently made the playoffs.

Even harder to believe, LMJ was actually healthy and making the 5/$85M deal he signed at the beginning of the 2021 season look like a helluva bargain for the Astros.

6.2 IP, 4 H, 0 ER after this for a regular season:

Yordan homers. Astros cruise against Lynn

https://www.mlb.com/video/white-sox-vs-astros-game-1-recap

 

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

breggy going to get paid ….

 

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

astros had a hell of a bargain with machete !!!

judge type numbers for a fraction of the price …

[LCHorn 2,612]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

breggy going to get paid ….

 

Preaching to the choir, but that's why he has to be re-signed, even if the back-end of the contract is ugly. 

[Jshep34 2,308]

astros had a hell of a bargain with machete !!!
judge type numbers for a fraction of the price …

Shhhhh we don't want to awaken that Yankee fan with truth of how non clutch Judge is

[UTexasFight 9,426]

 

[UTexasFight 9,426]

10/8/2018

we slept they Chief Wahoo. Sweeping the Indians on Indigenous Peoples Day in the last game the Chief Wahoo logo was worn.

https://amp.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/article219703080.html
 

Astros teed off on the Indians bullpen, starting with Bauer who took the loss.

I remember this being a super stressful game (down 2-1 going to the 7th) before the bats woke up and scored 10 runs in the final 3 innings.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/game?gameId=401085801

 

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

I would bet money on any of these players being Houston’s 2025 opening day 3B before I’d bet on Bregman:

Mauricio Dubon

Jake Burger

Shay Whitcomb 

Zach Dezenzo

Donovan Solano

Gio Urshela

Jeimer Candelario

Bregman had 7 years to work out a deal with Houston.  He’s already posted a goodbye tweet and sold his house in Houston.  He gone.

[Mo Horn 8,816]

Pipe dream for sure, but Pete Alonso is a free agent this year. He'd do nicely at 1st base. Doubt we spend the money though. 

[Guadaloopy 10,954]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Bregman had 7 years to work out a deal with Houston.

He’s been with the team for nine seasons.  He already extended once.  He did a deal to buy out his arbitration years and extend for two seasons.  If Bregs wants to acknowledge reality as a player who will be 31 before opening day, there’s a chance the Astros can make a deal.  If he chooses to live in Boras fantasy land and believe that someone is going to guarantee a contract until after he turns 40, then he’s welcome to float that on the market.  Good luck.  

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

boras was a train wreck all last off season. i’m shocked bregman is still with him 

[David Dennison 18,837]

26 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

He’s been with the team for nine seasons.  He already extended once.  He did a deal to buy out his arbitration years and extend for two seasons.  If Bregs wants to acknowledge reality as a player who will be 31 before opening day, there’s a chance the Astros can make a deal.  If he chooses to live in Boras fantasy land and believe that someone is going to guarantee a contract until after he turns 40, then he’s welcome to float that on the market.  Good luck.  

What about until after he turns 37?

Think Jim Crane will do that?

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

35 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

He’s been with the team for nine seasons.  He already extended once.  He did a deal to buy out his arbitration years and extend for two seasons.  If Bregs wants to acknowledge reality as a player who will be 31 before opening day, there’s a chance the Astros can make a deal.  If he chooses to live in Boras fantasy land and believe that someone is going to guarantee a contract until after he turns 40, then he’s welcome to float that on the market.  Good luck.  

If Bregman were willing to take $150M or less then he’d already have signed.  He’s looking for $200M+ and I don’t know if he’ll get it or not but I will be very very surprised if he signs with Houston.

[WBT 20,559]

53 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

What about until after he turns 37?

Think Jim Crane will do that?

nope

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

The Astros will be around $230M in estimated Payroll for 2025.

This is after removing several free agent contracts and adding arbitration numbers ($58M), Abreu/Montero dead money ($31M) and non-arb player ($6) - plus other fees. 

The CBT threshold starts at $241M for 2025.

The Astros went over the CBT in 2024 by $25M, so they will have to pay a 20% and 12% surcharge on that amount. Which is about $4M total.

If the Astros go over the $241M threshold, they will have to pay 30% this time on the first $20M over. Essentially, the Astros could get up to $281M without it affecting a draft pick. (over $40M and top pick moves back 10)

If they re-sign Bregman for around $30M AAV, then that gets Houston to $260M. Essentially they would have another $20M to work with but it doesn’t seem like Crane wants to spend that much.

But we’re talking about a tax bill of around $5.7M just to keep Bregman. I bet jersey sales could outweigh that. 

Dana Brown had said they are going to have to be creative with the payroll this year, which could mean trades, as well as going with prospects. 

My point is, the Astros can afford to keep Alex Bregman for the future, and even possibly Kyle Tucker down the road. But are the Astros willing to spend?

 

 

[Guadaloopy 10,954]

51 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

The Astros will be around $230M in estimated Payroll for 2025.

This is after removing several free agent contracts and adding arbitration numbers ($58M), Abreu/Montero dead money ($31M) and non-arb player ($6) - plus other fees. 

The CBT threshold starts at $241M for 2025.

The Astros went over the CBT in 2024 by $25M, so they will have to pay a 20% and 12% surcharge on that amount. Which is about $4M total.

If the Astros go over the $241M threshold, they will have to pay 30% this time on the first $20M over. Essentially, the Astros could get up to $281M without it affecting a draft pick. (over $40M and top pick moves back 10)

If they re-sign Bregman for around $30M AAV, then that gets Houston to $260M. Essentially they would have another $20M to work with but it doesn’t seem like Crane wants to spend that much.

But we’re talking about a tax bill of around $5.7M just to keep Bregman. I bet jersey sales could outweigh that. 

Dana Brown had said they are going to have to be creative with the payroll this year, which could mean trades, as well as going with prospects. 

My point is, the Astros can afford to keep Alex Bregman for the future, and even possibly Kyle Tucker down the road. But are the Astros willing to spend?

 

 

That $31M for Abreu and Montero comes off the books after '25, and '25 is the only vesting year Pressly's contract, so his $14M comes off as well.  There's room for both Bregs and Tucker to get paid.  

[David Dennison 18,837]

1 hour ago, Guadaloopy said:

That $31M for Abreu and Montero comes off the books after '25, and '25 is the only vesting year Pressly's contract, so his $14M comes off as well.  There's room for both Bregs and Tucker to get paid.  

Even if you pay them the amount they want in five year deals, which they probably won't accept anyway?

 

[HtownHorn 14,663]

22 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

If Bregman were willing to take $150M or less then he’d already have signed.  He’s looking for $200M+ and I don’t know if he’ll get it or not but I will be very very surprised if he signs with Houston.

He's not getting that. He showed up for 2-1/2 months out of 6. His BB% was abysmal and he's already shown signs of losing what little athleticism he had. Last year proved that non generational players are now seen as a dime a dozen.

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

4 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

He's not getting that. He showed up for 2-1/2 months out of 6. His BB% was abysmal and he's already shown signs of losing what little athleticism he had. Last year proved that non generational players are now seen as a dime a dozen.

 

his slow starts seem to grow every season 

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

good for yuli, ending is career with a bang if this his last season …

top 10 all time post season hits is damn impressive 

[WBT 20,559]

And the Phillies LCS streak ends at 2.  Very impressive.  Going to be 4 new teams in the LCS this year.

Edited October 10 by WBT

[UTexasFight 9,426]

10/9/2017

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap/_/gameId/371009102

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

welp, i had 4 great trips to the trop …..

 

[tx 3 putt 76,859]

 

[Snake Diggity 4,619]

13 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

He's not getting that. He showed up for 2-1/2 months out of 6. His BB% was abysmal and he's already shown signs of losing what little athleticism he had. Last year proved that non generational players are now seen as a dime a dozen.

He was a $40M player this season.  He will get well over $150M.  My guess is he gets something like $180M/6yrs with bonuses or vesting years that take it to $200M.

Theres always the chance his elbow or back or hammy tank his medicals or teams just don’t have the money.  But I will be really surprised if he takes a long term deal with no opt outs for less than $170M.

[Dutchrudder 11,133]

11 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

I was at that game in the Crawford Boxes, over by the fair poll about 6 rows back. I stayed for all 6 hours of it, and it was a glorious game. Big comeback to tie it in the 9th, then 9 innings of nothing until Burke hit that homer in the bottom of the 18th. I think the Astros used every pitcher on the roster besides Pettitte and Oswalt, many pitched multiple innings. Clemens came in to pitch a few shutout innings at the end and got the W. I paid about $150 in 2005 for that ticket, which was a lot back then, and it was well worth it.