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24/25 Astros Offseason thread

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Jshep34
Jshep34

Lilshep took a knee to face on play at home while playing catcher. Removed mask and kod slid knee first into his head. How he wasn't knocked out or eye sight damage is beyond a blessing. Stayed in ga

runthebone
runthebone

I definitely worry that other guys will get rusty after McCullers vacuums up 300 or so innings.

Scraps
Scraps

I can handle the Yankees if Dominguez is part of the deal just for the meltdown our resident Yankees goober would have And then have Tucker do the same thing to them that Soto just did next offseaso

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78275

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 11/26/2024 at 2:39 PM, UTexasFight said:

@tx 3 putt here’s your chance to have dinner with Loperfido’s sister

 

 

i can get her to dump her bf

 

 

 

 

11 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Do any teams at this point? Everyone staring at Soto 

 

red sox would be interesting 

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Iceman

Iceman 2900

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Posted (edited)
On 11/27/2024 at 8:11 AM, kevwun said:

Dodgers going for a 400 million dollar payroll I guess.

In 2055? When you're paying Shohei $25 a game, lots of things are possible in 2025.

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2731

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Posted
26 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Meh

 

Looks like a McLane/Purpura signing.  
 

Maybe we can follow-up with a former Mets All-Star from ten years ago and/or someone with Texas ties willing to accept the veterans minimum because their fastball can’t break glass.  

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78275

Posted
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2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Looks like a McLane/Purpura signing.  
 

Maybe we can follow-up with a former Mets All-Star from ten years ago and/or someone with Texas ties willing to accept the veterans minimum because their fastball can’t break glass.  

 

 

 

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kevwun

kevwun 16094

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Yeah, but he still throws 92 with a curveball and slider that aren't very good anymore.  Relievers who no longer have good stuff who can't gets outs are not in high demand, especially when they cost 14 million.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19515

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2 hours ago, kevwun said:

Yeah, but he still throws 92 with a curveball and slider that aren't very good anymore.  Relievers who no longer have good stuff who can't gets outs are not in high demand, especially when they cost 14 million.

All his fip and xfip stats were fine. Monitored it all year b/c it certainly didn't match what my eyes told me. His expected BA and slug were good.  Again- this did not match my eyes or recollection but there is an argument that he was merely unlucky.  His ERA was 3.49 that's not bad. His fip was 3.1, that's actually pretty good (better than Hader and Abreu).  

WOBA- 314.  Xwoba- 308.  Hard hit% in line with career numbers.  K% 24% v career norms of 28%.  BB% 7.4% vs 6.9% for career.  That's what- 1 extra walk and 8 fewer strike outs over the course of the year with his inning load?  Chase% and GB% is still elite.  Breaking run value and offspeed run value is above average.  Fastball run value below average.  He needs to gain another MPH, Throw less or throw more junk balls maybe?  I'd bet he's not cooked and for 1 year he's probably a mid tier closer.  Mid tier closers on 1 year deals make that kind of money.  Nobody is going to give you anything of great value, but my guess is you can offload him to someone without eating a ton of money. 

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runthebone

runthebone 8273

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For the lazy

 

Spoiler

As MLB’s Winter Meetings loom, the Houston Astros are still in search of a direction
Chandler Rome

HOUSTON — The baseball world will descend upon Dallas with the Houston Astros still in search of a direction. Conversations with people inside and outside of the organization have yielded more ambiguity than absolutes about their offseason plans — myriad options but few conclusions on how to confront a crossroads.

Some within the Astros’ organization have sought clarity from decision-makers throughout the past month and a half. Most have been unsuccessful, but front offices aren’t mandated to keep everyone apprised of their methods. General manager Dana Brown has maintained the “biggest priority” is retaining third baseman Alex Bregman.

Brown’s bullishness placates the fan base, but overlooks larger questions that bringing back Bregman won’t answer. Brown has already promised “nothing is off the table” during an offseason in which he acknowledged the Astros “may have to get a little bit creative.”

The Winter Meetings may illustrate how imaginative Houston will be. The team’s aging major-league roster and fallow farm system prompts legitimate concerns about its sustainability. Still, it will return a core within a weak American League West that portends championship contention in 2025, and owner Jim Crane expects nothing less.

He has claimed the Astros’ championship window will remain open throughout his ownership tenure, a declaration that is becoming more difficult to guarantee. Brown must try, anyway, to balance the demands of an involved owner with the club’s sobering reality.

People familiar with how Crane operates have wondered whether he could stomach any moves that run counter to his vision of a wide-open championship window. Brown could engineer one of them this winter, all the while altering the sport’s entire offseason landscape. Whether he has the autonomy to author it is unclear.

Making either Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez available in trade discussions may be the easiest path for Houston to balance its present and future. Both men are estimated to make more than $15 million in their final trip through the arbitration process. Next winter, both will demand the sort of free-agent deals Crane is loath to give. Parting with either Valdez or Tucker would not signal a rebuild, but would bring back the sort of prospect haul to help stabilize a fledgling farm system. The team could still contend in 2025 without them — especially in such a subpar division — though it is undoubtedly a more arduous task.

Brown and his lieutenants have already discussed moving setup man Ryan Pressly and his $14 million salary. That it has even been floated within the industry may signal Brown’s willingness to make the sort of “creative” move he alluded to earlier this winter — and perhaps an inclination to listen on Valdez or Tucker. Pressly’s age, no-trade clause and uneven 2024 season will complicate any potential trade discussions. Almost no impediments exist with Tucker or Valdez, who would be of interest to every team trying to contend. It would be a dereliction of duty for Brown not to entertain the thought.

According to FanGraphs, only three outfielders have been worth more wins above replacement than Tucker since 2022. Valdez is just one of 11 pitchers to throw 710 innings since 2021. His ERA in that span is 3.08. A parallel between Valdez’s availability and Milwaukee’s trade of Corbin Burnes last winter is easy to create.

The Brewers still captured the National League Central after trading Burnes. The Tampa Bay Rays have trademarked this entire process — offloading well-performing players they won’t have a prayer to keep long-term. Whether Houston is prepared to replicate the process is unclear. If Crane is comfortable exceeding the luxury tax for a second consecutive season, it stands to reason that Houston could keep both players and pursue complementary pieces in free agency.

The players’ union frowns upon any owner offering an outright declaration that they won’t cross the luxury tax, so Crane remained diplomatic when confronting the question last month.

“We’ve done it,” he said. “We’ll see where we end up. It depends on what we need and where the shoes drop.”

Last winter, people familiar with Crane’s thinking maintained he was open to paying the luxury tax, but only for a meaningful addition to Houston’s roster. Signing closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract — the largest free-agent deal of Crane’s ownership tenure — sufficed as that substantial upgrade. That Crane coveted Hader during the 2023 trade deadline can’t be overstated in Houston’s decision-making.

Crane paid the luxury tax for the first time as a result, part of the largest payroll in franchise history. Last month, he claimed his club has the “wherewithal” to spend in a similar manner. In the same breath, Crane cautioned against “going crazy.”

Next season, Houston must pay José Abreu $19.5 million not to play first base, Cristian Javier $12.8 million to rehab a torn ulnar collateral ligament and $11.5 million for reliever Rafael Montero to reside off the 40-man roster. What, if anything, the Astros will extract from $17 million starter Lance McCullers Jr. is another mystery. As a result, approximations have the Astros anywhere from $10 to $12 million under the first luxury tax threshold. Crossing it may be inevitable to make any meaningful improvements for a roster in need of at least one offensive upgrade, a starting pitcher and one leverage reliever.

Most other teams in pursuit of Bregman aren’t faced with similar problems. In September, Bregman told The Athletic that winning “for my whole career” is “what I value the most coming up.”

Houston is still engaged with Bregman, but nothing in the franchise’s past suggests it will meet his asking price. Little in its present suggests it can fulfill his biggest priority.

 

 

 

not spoilered:  I removed this from the article (LOOK AT THIS AND WEEP)

 

USATSI_23476688-scaled.jpg

The Astros will pay José Abreu $19.5 million to not play for them in 2025.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9756

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13 hours ago, runthebone said:

For the lazy

 

  Hide contents

As MLB’s Winter Meetings loom, the Houston Astros are still in search of a direction
Chandler Rome

HOUSTON — The baseball world will descend upon Dallas with the Houston Astros still in search of a direction. Conversations with people inside and outside of the organization have yielded more ambiguity than absolutes about their offseason plans — myriad options but few conclusions on how to confront a crossroads.

Some within the Astros’ organization have sought clarity from decision-makers throughout the past month and a half. Most have been unsuccessful, but front offices aren’t mandated to keep everyone apprised of their methods. General manager Dana Brown has maintained the “biggest priority” is retaining third baseman Alex Bregman.

Brown’s bullishness placates the fan base, but overlooks larger questions that bringing back Bregman won’t answer. Brown has already promised “nothing is off the table” during an offseason in which he acknowledged the Astros “may have to get a little bit creative.”

The Winter Meetings may illustrate how imaginative Houston will be. The team’s aging major-league roster and fallow farm system prompts legitimate concerns about its sustainability. Still, it will return a core within a weak American League West that portends championship contention in 2025, and owner Jim Crane expects nothing less.

He has claimed the Astros’ championship window will remain open throughout his ownership tenure, a declaration that is becoming more difficult to guarantee. Brown must try, anyway, to balance the demands of an involved owner with the club’s sobering reality.

People familiar with how Crane operates have wondered whether he could stomach any moves that run counter to his vision of a wide-open championship window. Brown could engineer one of them this winter, all the while altering the sport’s entire offseason landscape. Whether he has the autonomy to author it is unclear.

Making either Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez available in trade discussions may be the easiest path for Houston to balance its present and future. Both men are estimated to make more than $15 million in their final trip through the arbitration process. Next winter, both will demand the sort of free-agent deals Crane is loath to give. Parting with either Valdez or Tucker would not signal a rebuild, but would bring back the sort of prospect haul to help stabilize a fledgling farm system. The team could still contend in 2025 without them — especially in such a subpar division — though it is undoubtedly a more arduous task.

Brown and his lieutenants have already discussed moving setup man Ryan Pressly and his $14 million salary. That it has even been floated within the industry may signal Brown’s willingness to make the sort of “creative” move he alluded to earlier this winter — and perhaps an inclination to listen on Valdez or Tucker. Pressly’s age, no-trade clause and uneven 2024 season will complicate any potential trade discussions. Almost no impediments exist with Tucker or Valdez, who would be of interest to every team trying to contend. It would be a dereliction of duty for Brown not to entertain the thought.

According to FanGraphs, only three outfielders have been worth more wins above replacement than Tucker since 2022. Valdez is just one of 11 pitchers to throw 710 innings since 2021. His ERA in that span is 3.08. A parallel between Valdez’s availability and Milwaukee’s trade of Corbin Burnes last winter is easy to create.

The Brewers still captured the National League Central after trading Burnes. The Tampa Bay Rays have trademarked this entire process — offloading well-performing players they won’t have a prayer to keep long-term. Whether Houston is prepared to replicate the process is unclear. If Crane is comfortable exceeding the luxury tax for a second consecutive season, it stands to reason that Houston could keep both players and pursue complementary pieces in free agency.

The players’ union frowns upon any owner offering an outright declaration that they won’t cross the luxury tax, so Crane remained diplomatic when confronting the question last month.

“We’ve done it,” he said. “We’ll see where we end up. It depends on what we need and where the shoes drop.”

Last winter, people familiar with Crane’s thinking maintained he was open to paying the luxury tax, but only for a meaningful addition to Houston’s roster. Signing closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract — the largest free-agent deal of Crane’s ownership tenure — sufficed as that substantial upgrade. That Crane coveted Hader during the 2023 trade deadline can’t be overstated in Houston’s decision-making.

Crane paid the luxury tax for the first time as a result, part of the largest payroll in franchise history. Last month, he claimed his club has the “wherewithal” to spend in a similar manner. In the same breath, Crane cautioned against “going crazy.”

Next season, Houston must pay José Abreu $19.5 million not to play first base, Cristian Javier $12.8 million to rehab a torn ulnar collateral ligament and $11.5 million for reliever Rafael Montero to reside off the 40-man roster. What, if anything, the Astros will extract from $17 million starter Lance McCullers Jr. is another mystery. As a result, approximations have the Astros anywhere from $10 to $12 million under the first luxury tax threshold. Crossing it may be inevitable to make any meaningful improvements for a roster in need of at least one offensive upgrade, a starting pitcher and one leverage reliever.

Most other teams in pursuit of Bregman aren’t faced with similar problems. In September, Bregman told The Athletic that winning “for my whole career” is “what I value the most coming up.”

Houston is still engaged with Bregman, but nothing in the franchise’s past suggests it will meet his asking price. Little in its present suggests it can fulfill his biggest priority.

 

 

 

not spoilered:  I removed this from the article (LOOK AT THIS AND WEEP)

 

USATSI_23476688-scaled.jpg

The Astros will pay José Abreu $19.5 million to not play for them in 2025.

But wait, it gets better:

Next season, Houston must pay José Abreu $19.5 million not to play first base, Cristian Javier $12.8 million to rehab a torn ulnar collateral ligament and $11.5 million for reliever Rafael Montero to reside off the 40-man roster. What, if anything, the Astros will extract from $17 million starter Lance McCullers Jr. is another mystery. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3876

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31 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

But wait, it gets better:

Next season, Houston must pay José Abreu $19.5 million not to play first base, Cristian Javier $12.8 million to rehab a torn ulnar collateral ligament and $11.5 million for reliever Rafael Montero to reside off the 40-man roster. What, if anything, the Astros will extract from $17 million starter Lance McCullers Jr. is another mystery. 

I mean if Chandler really wants to be histrionic might as well add Grienkes 12.5 mil 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4678

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Posted
1 hour ago, UTexasFight said:

But wait, it gets better:

Next season, Houston must pay José Abreu $19.5 million not to play first base, Cristian Javier $12.8 million to rehab a torn ulnar collateral ligament and $11.5 million for reliever Rafael Montero to reside off the 40-man roster. What, if anything, the Astros will extract from $17 million starter Lance McCullers Jr. is another mystery. 

$60M in dead money and they are still projected as the 4th best team in the league.  Imagine how badass they would be if they had that money to spend this offseason (or just if Abreu, McCullers, Montero, and Javier were healthy and productive to their career averages).

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TejasPedro

TejasPedro 1905

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Posted

Hard to believe no one is taking the blame or being held accountable, don’t give me the unforeseen injuries crap. Those were bad deals. The people responsible for the Abreu deal should be banned and locked out of Houston for 60 years.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15184

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Posted

The Javier deal is fine, you can pretty much assume that any long term deal to a young pitcher is going to include a TJ season. 

The $48M to Abreu, McCullers, and Montero is what is costing us Bregman and another high quality bat.

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UTexasFight

UTexasFight 9756

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, TejasPedro said:

The people responsible for the Abreu deal should be banned and locked out of Houston for 60 years.

Thats a bit excessive.

at the time most liked the Abreu deal with really the only complaint being it was one year too long.

Now if you want to layer on the Montero deal and hammer them for “repeat offender”, then by all means. But there have been too many bad reliever deals to count 

Edited by UTexasFight
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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15184

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Posted
8 minutes ago, TejasPedro said:

Hard to believe no one is taking the blame or being held accountable, don’t give me the unforeseen injuries crap. Those were bad deals. The people responsible for the Abreu deal should be banned and locked out of Houston for 60 years.

It was the owner, and yeah, I think most on this thread would prefer him not becoming the MLB version of Jerry Jones. Personally, I want him to sell the team, because I think he's not going to give up control and he's an idoitic baseball mind. Just like Bagwell, Jackson, and Biggio. Great players, idoits when given control.

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David Dennison

David Dennison 19314

Posted
Posted
19 hours ago, runthebone said:

For the lazy

 

  Reveal hidden contents

As MLB’s Winter Meetings loom, the Houston Astros are still in search of a direction
Chandler Rome

HOUSTON — The baseball world will descend upon Dallas with the Houston Astros still in search of a direction. Conversations with people inside and outside of the organization have yielded more ambiguity than absolutes about their offseason plans — myriad options but few conclusions on how to confront a crossroads.

Some within the Astros’ organization have sought clarity from decision-makers throughout the past month and a half. Most have been unsuccessful, but front offices aren’t mandated to keep everyone apprised of their methods. General manager Dana Brown has maintained the “biggest priority” is retaining third baseman Alex Bregman.

Brown’s bullishness placates the fan base, but overlooks larger questions that bringing back Bregman won’t answer. Brown has already promised “nothing is off the table” during an offseason in which he acknowledged the Astros “may have to get a little bit creative.”

The Winter Meetings may illustrate how imaginative Houston will be. The team’s aging major-league roster and fallow farm system prompts legitimate concerns about its sustainability. Still, it will return a core within a weak American League West that portends championship contention in 2025, and owner Jim Crane expects nothing less.

He has claimed the Astros’ championship window will remain open throughout his ownership tenure, a declaration that is becoming more difficult to guarantee. Brown must try, anyway, to balance the demands of an involved owner with the club’s sobering reality.

People familiar with how Crane operates have wondered whether he could stomach any moves that run counter to his vision of a wide-open championship window. Brown could engineer one of them this winter, all the while altering the sport’s entire offseason landscape. Whether he has the autonomy to author it is unclear.

Making either Kyle Tucker or Framber Valdez available in trade discussions may be the easiest path for Houston to balance its present and future. Both men are estimated to make more than $15 million in their final trip through the arbitration process. Next winter, both will demand the sort of free-agent deals Crane is loath to give. Parting with either Valdez or Tucker would not signal a rebuild, but would bring back the sort of prospect haul to help stabilize a fledgling farm system. The team could still contend in 2025 without them — especially in such a subpar division — though it is undoubtedly a more arduous task.

Brown and his lieutenants have already discussed moving setup man Ryan Pressly and his $14 million salary. That it has even been floated within the industry may signal Brown’s willingness to make the sort of “creative” move he alluded to earlier this winter — and perhaps an inclination to listen on Valdez or Tucker. Pressly’s age, no-trade clause and uneven 2024 season will complicate any potential trade discussions. Almost no impediments exist with Tucker or Valdez, who would be of interest to every team trying to contend. It would be a dereliction of duty for Brown not to entertain the thought.

According to FanGraphs, only three outfielders have been worth more wins above replacement than Tucker since 2022. Valdez is just one of 11 pitchers to throw 710 innings since 2021. His ERA in that span is 3.08. A parallel between Valdez’s availability and Milwaukee’s trade of Corbin Burnes last winter is easy to create.

The Brewers still captured the National League Central after trading Burnes. The Tampa Bay Rays have trademarked this entire process — offloading well-performing players they won’t have a prayer to keep long-term. Whether Houston is prepared to replicate the process is unclear. If Crane is comfortable exceeding the luxury tax for a second consecutive season, it stands to reason that Houston could keep both players and pursue complementary pieces in free agency.

The players’ union frowns upon any owner offering an outright declaration that they won’t cross the luxury tax, so Crane remained diplomatic when confronting the question last month.

“We’ve done it,” he said. “We’ll see where we end up. It depends on what we need and where the shoes drop.”

Last winter, people familiar with Crane’s thinking maintained he was open to paying the luxury tax, but only for a meaningful addition to Houston’s roster. Signing closer Josh Hader to a five-year, $95 million contract — the largest free-agent deal of Crane’s ownership tenure — sufficed as that substantial upgrade. That Crane coveted Hader during the 2023 trade deadline can’t be overstated in Houston’s decision-making.

Crane paid the luxury tax for the first time as a result, part of the largest payroll in franchise history. Last month, he claimed his club has the “wherewithal” to spend in a similar manner. In the same breath, Crane cautioned against “going crazy.”

Next season, Houston must pay José Abreu $19.5 million not to play first base, Cristian Javier $12.8 million to rehab a torn ulnar collateral ligament and $11.5 million for reliever Rafael Montero to reside off the 40-man roster. What, if anything, the Astros will extract from $17 million starter Lance McCullers Jr. is another mystery. As a result, approximations have the Astros anywhere from $10 to $12 million under the first luxury tax threshold. Crossing it may be inevitable to make any meaningful improvements for a roster in need of at least one offensive upgrade, a starting pitcher and one leverage reliever.

Most other teams in pursuit of Bregman aren’t faced with similar problems. In September, Bregman told The Athletic that winning “for my whole career” is “what I value the most coming up.”

Houston is still engaged with Bregman, but nothing in the franchise’s past suggests it will meet his asking price. Little in its present suggests it can fulfill his biggest priority.

 

not spoilered:  I removed this from the article (LOOK AT THIS AND WEEP)

So are we making the playoffs or nah?

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11212

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, TejasPedro said:

Hard to believe no one is taking the blame or being held accountable, don’t give me the unforeseen injuries crap. Those were bad deals. The people responsible for the Abreu deal should be banned and locked out of Houston for 60 years.

You can't fire the owner.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4678

Posted
Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, TejasPedro said:

Hard to believe no one is taking the blame or being held accountable, don’t give me the unforeseen injuries crap. Those were bad deals. The people responsible for the Abreu deal should be banned and locked out of Houston for 60 years.

I think the 2 worst deals (Montero and Abreu) were the result of Crane thinking he could execute an offseason plan that had already been put together by the outgoing GM.  I think Click would have targeted Abreu and Montero, but not for the deals Crane ended up giving them (Click likely would have held at 2 guaranteed years for both guys).

The McCullers and Javier deals were fair extensions at the time and both could still end up not being terrible (although McCullers is looking unlikely).

Edited by Snake Diggity
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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 15184

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Posted

We need McCullers and Whitley to be 5th/6th/7th inning guys in the bullpen next season. McCullers is obviously overpaid for that role, but them staying healthy and contributing there gives the team a chance to have a very strong 13-man pitching staff.

I would still try to sign one more veteran starter and move to a 6-man rotation

Valdez(unless traded), Brown, vet, Blanco, Arighetti, Garcia/Javier (when they are available).

Closer- Hader

8th - Abreu

MR - Scott, King, Ort, Dubin, Whitley, McCullers

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