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24/25 Astros Offseason thread

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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LCHorn

LCHorn 2749

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30 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

You might be right, we’ll have to see.  At this point it’s clear that Houston cannot remain competitive just by engaging in the free agent market.  If the window is going to stay open after 2025, it will be because the front office was able to generate core talent via the farm system.  One heartening fact is that of the 7 players on Houston’s roster who project for 3+ fwar, 6 of them were non-pedigreed prospects.  Diaz and Alvarez were acquired via trade in exchange for middling players.  Altuve and Valdez were non-bonus international signees.  Brown and Pena were Day 2 draft picks.  Tucker was the only player  who came into the system with a top prospect profile.  So if Houston can replicate those kinds of moves over the next 18 months, they’ll be just fine; keep an eye on Ronel Blanco and Zach Dezenzo this season.

Dana Brown is an awful interview.  He speaks in non-sequiters and seems to lack confidence.  That isn’t a guarantee he’s an incompetent GM; his background is in scouting, and if he does that job extremely well, he’ll be a great GM regardless of how cringey his interviews are.  The early returns on his drafts are good.

I liked your trade for Correa idea on Clutchfans (I'm with @Wulaw Horn that the Astros are out of trade pieces that don't hurt elsewhere, with one exception--spend Crane's money). 

I think we're all in agreement that the stars aligned in the building of the team; it's just historically unusual to to put together that much talent, much of it lowly touted, and have it coalesce into this much success in a modern era.  I also think that's supportive of skepticism that it can be done again via hitting on draft picks and international free agent signings.  If Brown adds value, it's likely in finding guys overlooked but those also don't tend to turn into 4.4 WAR players (which is what we lose, at least on the short-term, if Bregman bounces).   They also take more time to develop and that's not aligned with our current window of contention. 

It's also a good argument for either going all in in '25 or trading Tucker and Valdez in support of continuing the run through when Alvarez gets expensive and/or becomes a Dodger again (you may have been considerate of the latter with your Correa suggestion since the contracts line up).  I don't think you can plan on both. 

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Storm the Field
Storm the Field

Lifelong Astros diehard here, but I might have to find a new team with a less annoying fanbase.  I'd have been much more pissed at keeping Tucker and letting him walk for nothing this offseason t

Jshep34
Jshep34

I'm still just excited and happy I lived during this era of astros baseball after 35+ plus years of misery. Don't care what they do. I got to watch my team hang 2 world series titles in my life and s

RGBIII
RGBIII

If you bitch and complain about Crane spending you either don’t know ball or you have no recollection of Drayton and the early Luhnow years. Crane has too much involvement in baseball ops and needs to

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11228

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Some random blurbs from ESPN:

Winter meetings news and rumors
Dec. 10 buzz

Why Astros' Tucker is coming up in trade speculation

Houston Astros owner Jim Crane has not gone beyond six years in his offers to players, and it's pretty clear that if Kyle Tucker stays healthy, he is going to be offered big money/big years as a free agent next fall. So Houston has a choice similar to Boston's in the offseason after 2019 with Mookie Betts: trade him for value this winter or next July, or, watch him walk away.

The Astros have indicated to other teams that, as a rule, they'll listen to offers for anyone on their roster. But rival execs note that while trading Tucker now might help them recoup more value, the Astros -- who've been in win-now mode since 2015 -- have a long history of allowing their impending free agents walk out the door, rather than flipping them in pre-emptive trades. Gerrit Cole, George Springer and Carlos Correa are three of the most prominent examples of this philosophy. "And they're trying to win (in 2025)," said one rival evaluator. "I have a hard time seeing them trade Tucker or Framber (Valdez)."-- Buster Olney

Could Soto's megadeal help Astros' Tucker?

In the aftermath of Juan Soto's massive contract, I'm hearing some evaluators talking about the huge payday ahead for Kyle Tucker, who will be a free agent next offseason. Since the start of 2019: an adjusted OPS+ of 142, .882 OPS, 125 homers, 93 steals in 105 attempts, a Gold Glove Award. He'll be 29 at the outset of the 2026 season. -- Buster Olney

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Scraps

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We do.... that is why it wouldn't hurt to trade Framber.  It would actually be the smartest thing they could do to pull some prospects.  It's not like it will set us back if Framber isn't around in 2025.  

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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6 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I liked your trade for Correa idea on Clutchfans (I'm with @Wulaw Horn that the Astros are out of trade pieces that don't hurt elsewhere, with one exception--spend Crane's money). 

I think we're all in agreement that the stars aligned in the building of the team; it's just historically unusual to to put together that much talent, much of it lowly touted, and have it coalesce into this much success in a modern era.  I also think that's supportive of skepticism that it can be done again via hitting on draft picks and international free agent signings.  If Brown adds value, it's likely in finding guys overlooked but those also don't tend to turn into 4.4 WAR players (which is what we lose, at least on the short-term, if Bregman bounces).   They also take more time to develop and that's not aligned with our current window of contention. 

It's also a good argument for either going all in in '25 or trading Tucker and Valdez in support of continuing the run through when Alvarez gets expensive and/or becomes a Dodger again (you may have been considerate of the latter with your Correa suggestion since the contracts line up).  I don't think you can plan on both. 

So, yeah- they need to quit being dickheads if they get star young players and extend them for like 9 years 100M after year 1 if you want to keep these guys through their prime.  Unfortunately, they always wait too long and then it's just not going to happen.  The only guy on the roster that it makes sense to make a big offer to is Yainer Diaz- you could be like 10 for 100M right now dude- I dare you to turn down life changing money.  You have to think the player isn't going to just become a fat lazy slob- but that's the only way to do a moderately valuable (to the team) extension and it involves not massively fucking them over up front.  And- that only works for a guy in his mid 20's with 1 year of service time (Pena would have been another guy that might be open to a deal like that) the Correa types that are super young we see what happened in Seattle to get that kind of deal done.

My timeframe has always been- end of Alvarez contract.  Load up and do whatever you do to be good through the time you have an MVP like that, along with cheap young pitching and a star catcher making not much money and go for 1 or 2 more rings in that 4 years.  If that means giving a 6 year deal to a guy who will only be good for 3 or 4 more years, or a 10 year deal to a guy who will be great for 5 or 6 more years and then eating money and trading players away so be it. You can strip the payroll back down to 30M, eat shit on the back end of dead money to the tune of 100 or 200M over the lives of those deals and go back into tank mode for 2 or 3 years. 

So- this year I would do something like:

Tucker- 10- 300m, Bregman- 10- 220M, Valdez- 8-200, Walker- 4-80M.   Trade Presley.  Trade Abreu (Jose) and Matthews to someone.  Trade Montero and Shithead CF minor leaguer that's our #1 prospect that sort of sucks and LMJ and whatever other prospects that are worth 20M in surplus value.  

Payroll

Catcher- 8M, 

1B- 20M

2B- 25M

SS- 1M

3B- 22M

DH- 17M

OF- 40M

Utility- 5M

SP- 40M

BP- 35M

That's a 220M payroll, no dead money, and your prospects out the door of what- maybe 3 of your top 5 prospects?

Then- the plan would be at the end of 4 years I'd have Bregman at 6/130M left, Valdez at 5/125 left and tucker at 7/210 left.  Figure I'd have to eat 150M to offload those 3 guys and my books would be sparkling clean to do another rebuild beyond that.  That's how I'd long term fix it if I wanted to compete at a fucking boss level through the end of Yordan's contract.

Either that- or I'd trade Framber, Tucker, Pena, Caratini, Abreu (Bryan) for prospects, play Chas and Jake every day at CF and LF and hope I could move them at the deadline this year, play Whitcomb and Dezenzo every day and hope they get better, figure I've wasted a year of Yordans prime, audition every arm I have in the minor leagues, see what I've got, and see which of the minor league guys are keepers, which of the propsects I got in the Framber, Tucker, Pena, et al trades are keepers, and go spend as much money as I needed to in FA to plug holes that weren't filled by prospects for 26, 27 & 28 before Yordan, Diaz, Brown etc are all gone.  

One or the other.  We won't though and those 4 years won't see us with a legit 100 win type team.  So, we are hoping for chip and a chair (which to be fair- does occasionally work). 

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Wulaw Horn

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1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Let me know where you can find these suckers willing to take some of those deals. 

Acuna. Jrod, the pedo Tampa guy etc. the key is the part where you have to offer that after the first or second year. The Astros don’t that’s why they can’t get them extended. 
I don’t think Alex gets more than 220 total he doesn’t care how many years (probably). 
the minor leaguers all have surplus. Allie so it’s a matter of- we will trade you 25m now if you take the Abreu contract off our hands. If they have cap room and wa t to accumulate talent it’s workable. It’s like selling a draft pick. Can you 100% do everyone of those?  Maybe not, but conceptually it works. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2749

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1 hour ago, HtownHorn said:

He also called Fried to the Yankees back on the 4th.

Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie are your Bregman and Tucker replacements at minor league minimum and both are ready.  Two top 50 mlb prospects and a few lotto tickets is the minimum I’d settle for.  They can keep Bellinger or we take him for a bigger package in exchange for paying his stupid contract.  

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Mitch Hedberg

Mitch Hedberg 2116

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Obviously never met Tucker but his demeanor and personality just seems like a square peg in a shitty round hole in New York. Soto was perfect for those loudmouth idiots. Hard to trade a top 5 OF and get equal return but for right package it may be the right move. Hate to see him leave. 

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HtownHorn

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Just now, UTPhil2006 said:

Yup seems inevitable. I can handle the Cubs. If it's Yankees I will one man riot outside of MMP 

I think you will change your mind if we get Gil, Rice, and Dominguez. All 3 of those guys would be everyday players for the Astros next season and solve 2 problems, while also allowing us to trade Framber for another bat.

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Scraps

Scraps 13745

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I can handle the Yankees if Dominguez is part of the deal just for the meltdown our resident Yankees goober would have

And then have Tucker do the same thing to them that Soto just did next offseason.

Its poetry



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