24/25 Astros Offseason thread

[David Dennison 19316]

1 minute ago, Muny_Tex said:

George is owed $50M for his final two years in TOR, I'm sure they'd dump that back for almost nothing in return.

So do that, tell Bregman to take the hometown discount, and get the whole band back together with a Correa trade.  I bet Yuli would be glad to come hang out for the league minimum too.

2019 was my favorite squad of all-time, not really a close second.  Tucker and Framber both sucked on that team anyway, so all the more season to trade them now and protect the reunion vibes.

 

2019 was forever ago in sports time.

Springer is 35. Correa and Bregman are both 30.

I don't think we're getting the band back together. 

[Murfdogg21 4522]

3 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

George is owed $50M for his final two years in TOR, I'm sure they'd dump that back for almost nothing in return.

So do that, tell Bregman to take the hometown discount, and get the whole band back together with a Correa trade.  I bet Yuli would be glad to come hang out for the league minimum too.

2019 was my favorite squad of all-time, not really a close second.  Tucker and Framber both sucked on that team anyway, so all the more season to trade them now and protect the reunion vibes.

I'd prefer something like this (trading Framber for Correa, taking Springer off the Blue Jays' payroll, flipping Tucker for top prospects, trading Chaz and/or Jake for whatever they can get) over paying Bregman $400m. Someone send Dana a link to this thread.

[Muny_Tex 315]

My post was made in jest, but they'd definitely sell some tickets (and would probably be an HEB marketing depts wet dream).  And if by some miracle they stayed healthy, would very likely be lot more productive than vast majority of lineup configurations that were rolled out last year.

[David Dennison 19316]

4 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

My post was made in jest, but they'd definitely sell some tickets (and would probably be an HEB marketing depts wet dream).  And if by some miracle they stayed healthy, would very likely be lot more productive than vast majority of lineup configurations that were rolled out last year.

[Muny_Tex 315]

Also, thought for a minute longer about my favorite teams.  I think Top 5 would be:

1.) 2019 (by far)

2.) 2004 (peak Roy O, Cy Clemens, Kent/Beltran/Berkman all badasses, and last flash of Bagwell being good)

3.) 1998 (OG Killer B's, Lima Time, Summer of Big Unit)

4.) 2015 (Return to legitimacy/excitement, #ClubAstros, Correa ROY)

5.) 2020 (Salvaged worst year of humanity with a lot of grit/heart and damn near pulled off the miracle)

[UTPhil2006 3876]

Trade Tucker to the Cubs, sign Alonso and Bregman. Trade Press and Meyers. Grab another 2 year decent deal. Call it a day. 

[Focht Up 643]

By all means,  let's trade Tucker for a few prospects.  Then we can hope one of them becomes as good as...Kyle Tucker.

[UTPhil2006 3876]

1 minute ago, Focht Up said:

By all means,  let's trade Tucker for a few prospects.  Then we can hope one of them becomes as good as...Kyle Tucker.

For 1/80th of the price 

[tx 3 putt 78278]

diaz needs a better trainer, I work harder practicing chip shots ….

 

 

[Chuckie Finster 22958]

10 minutes ago, Focht Up said:

By all means,  let's trade Tucker for a few prospects.  Then we can hope one of them becomes as good as...Kyle Tucker.

The choice isn't between Kyle Tucker or prospects in 2025.  It's between prospects or nothing in 2026 and beyond.

[David Dennison 19316]

14 minutes ago, Focht Up said:

By all means,  let's trade Tucker for a few prospects.  Then we can hope one of them becomes as good as...Kyle Tucker.

I don't think there's any way we sign him, so I'd like to get something for him. 

[Snake Diggity 4678]

50 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

The Astros had the #3 to #7 highest payroll last year depending which site you look at, and are sitting in the top 10 for 2025 before resigning Bregman or whatever they end up doing. It's not like we have the A's, Rays, or Pirates ownership. They shipped prospects to get Verlander back in 2023 and to get Kikuchi last season, and haven't restocked the shelves. Crane burned himself with the Abreu and Montero contracts, but all of us were thinking Abreu was going to be crushing a lot of dingers to the Crawford boxes when he signed. It would be nice if Crane admitted he made a mistake and spent an extra $30m more than he planned to in 2025 to offset the dead money of those two contracts.

Mega contracts in baseball are never worth it. You'll get some good years and some bad years, but you'll be paying top dollar every year. By the end, it's just a money sink that really only NYY, NYM, and LAD seem to be able to afford. 

Amen.

Crane was always going to have to raise payroll to accommodate the maturing roster along with make up for a near-decade of late draft picks and buyer deadlines, which all comes with winning.  So they were always likely going to have to run a top 10 payroll by now to remain a contender.  Then they got hit with the draft pick penalties for sign stealing, which back of the envelope was probably about a $100M hit.  Then they signed Montero and Abreu to dead-money deals and had McCullers die and Javier need major surgery, leaving $70M in dead money for 2025.  It’s up to Crane as to whether he wants to spend his way out of the hole he dug by his first GM getting caught and then the further hole he dug operating without a GM (and enduring some bad injury luck).  To do that he’d have to probably run a $275M payroll for the next 2-3 seasons to allow Brown to rebuild the farm.  It doesn’t look like that’s going to happen, so likely the only way Houston remains a contender beyond 2025 is if Dana Brown is able to far outperform his resources via the farm system.

[Storm the Field 5329]

I'm worried we're gonna take worst case approach, which is IMO:

1. Bregman signs elsewhere and we replace him with Polanco on a stupid 3-year deal we'll end up regretting. 

2. We hold on to Tucker and let him walk this offseason with nothing to show for it beyond a 3rd or 4th round comp pick for turning down a QO. 

[Focht Up 643]

51 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

The choice isn't between Kyle Tucker or prospects in 2025.  It's between prospects or nothing in 2026 and beyond.

I'm suggesting we could just resign Tucker if we're serious about winning another WS.  Players like him don't come around that often.

[Chuckie Finster 22958]

I'm suggesting we could just resign Tucker if we're serious about winning another WS.  Players like him don't come around that often.

Crane deciding to spend like the Dodgers is the obvious best case scenario, it’s also a scenario that many of us refuse to even consider as a remote possibility.

[Mitch Hedberg 2108]

I wonder if Tucker being out so long and the Astros doing so well in his absence has emboldened them to think they can win without him especially if they get a huge package in return. It had to affect their thinking. I’m not sure they are wrong. Still won’t ever match his production individually but in the aggregate with replacing others it could be a net positive.

[Scraps 13698]

Well this seems like an idiotic tweet at the current time

[Scraps 13698]

Now followed by this trash

[UTPhil2006 3876]

Must have given 3putt the login to the account 

[tx 3 putt 78278]

 

[Scraps 13698]

Cool so Tommy John probably in his near future

[Wulaw Horn 19517]

3 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

George is owed $50M for his final two years in TOR, I'm sure they'd dump that back for almost nothing in return.

So do that, tell Bregman to take the hometown discount, and get the whole band back together with a Correa trade.  I bet Yuli would be glad to come hang out for the league minimum too.

2019 was my favorite squad of all-time, not really a close second.  Tucker and Framber both sucked on that team anyway, so all the more season to trade them now and protect the reunion vibes.

 

Meyers to Toronto for springer and 10M
Tucker to Cubs for Paredes and OF

bregman walks 

Framber for Correa. 
Pena for a solid 3. 
sign Walker. 
diaz/walker/altuve/correa/paredes/cubs OF/ Chas/LHH platoon guy/Springer/Yordan 

6 plus bats, 3 average guys 

brown/arrighetti/pitcher from Pena trade/blanco/garcia/blubaugh/LMJ/ Javier back as a late season bullpen guy. 
trade Presley. 
Thats a net financial push with all those moves. 
you are competitive through yordans contract expiring in 4 years. You have some guys in the minor leagues that might be ok coming up. You don’t have any money on the books past 2028. 

 

[David Dennison 19316]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Meyers to Toronto for springer and 10M
Tucker to Cubs for Paredes and OF

bregman walks 

Framber for Correa. 
Pena for a solid 3. 
sign Walker. 
diaz/walker/altuve/correa/paredes/cubs OF/ Chas/LHH platoon guy/Springer/Yordan 

6 plus bats, 3 average guys 

brown/arrighetti/pitcher from Pena trade/blanco/garcia/blubaugh/LMJ/ Javier back as a late season bullpen guy. 
trade Presley. 
Thats a net financial push with all those moves. 
you are competitive through yordans contract expiring in 4 years. You have some guys in the minor leagues that might be ok coming up. You don’t have any money on the books past 2028. 

 

Back in the real world, which of these things have a realistic chance of happening?

[UTexasFight 9758]

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Meyers to Toronto for springer and 10M


 

Ooof. That is complete one-sided… for the Jays 

[Scraps 13698]

Back in the real world, which of these things have a realistic chance of happening?

Dezenzo being our opening day 3B it looks like lulz

[Wulaw Horn 19517]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

Back in the real world, which of these things have a realistic chance of happening?

I was just riffing off his reunite the old gang stuff. 
Bregman walking for sure. Tucker traded looks plausible. Presley traded looks like they are trying. The rest probably not likely. It I’d trade Framber for sure. 

[Wulaw Horn 19517]

26 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

Ooof. That is complete one-sided… for the Jays 

20M?  25M? 
Springer feels like the kind of guy that has a dead cat bounce left in him- as lots of great players do at this stage of their career and that turf up there allegedly is pretty brutal, but he might be completely washed. 

[David Dennison 19316]

I thought Bregman would be signed by now.

[UTexasFight 9758]

18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

20M?  25M? 
Springer feels like the kind of guy that has a dead cat bounce left in him- as lots of great players do at this stage of their career and that turf up there allegedly is pretty brutal, but he might be completely washed. 

Meyers had a better season than George last year. George’s numbers were just as bad on the road as at home (slightly worse on the road).

I’ll always love the guy and you may be right about a dead cat bounce but I’m afraid you’re much more likely to just be dealing with more dead money …and hope the jersey sales help offset some of it 

[LCHorn 2739]

11 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

Meyers had a better season than George last year. George’s numbers were just as bad on the road as at home (slightly worse on the road).

I’ll always love the guy and you may be right about a dead cat bounce but I’m afraid you’re much more likely to just be dealing with more dead money …and hope the jersey sales help offset some of it 

I’ve actually thought this might be perhaps a little unexplored Moneyball frontier (declining players who might be more useful in different circumstances).  
 

It very well might be that playing Springer 3 days a week gets you 350 at bats of the best Springer and keeps him healthy, for example, and that outperforms a grab bat of AAAA superstars that the Astros might otherwise run out in right if Tucker is gone.  

[David Dennison 19316]

15 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I’ve actually thought this might be perhaps a little unexplored Moneyball frontier (declining players who might be more useful in different circumstances).  
 

It very well might be that playing Springer 3 days a week gets you 350 at bats of the best Springer and keeps him healthy, for example, and that outperforms a grab bat of AAAA superstars that the Astros might otherwise run out in right if Tucker is gone.  

You only trade for George if Toronto is willing to pay most of his contract.

[kevwun 16097]

Sounds like Yankees or Red Sox for Bregman.

[UTPhil2006 3876]

30 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Sounds like Yankees or Red Sox for Bregman.

According to whom 

[kevwun 16097]

The same place where I heard how much Bregman's offer from the Astros was.

[LCHorn 2739]

42 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

You only trade for George if Toronto is willing to pay most of his contract.

Oh yeah, of course.  The question is whether there’s a way to obtain discounted Wins taking older players and using them in unusual ways.  A more common variation of this would be moving a mediocre starter to closer where they can pump velocity better in short stints.  
 

We haven’t really seen this tried much with position players, maybe because it doesn’t work, rosters are too short, etc.  If I was trying to dream up how it might look, however, I would start with someone who was a terrific athlete like Springer and/ or someone who can’t stay healthy like Brantley.  I don’t follow the Dodgers much but I think they attempted a variation of this idea with Justin Turner.  
 

I can’t recall the Baseball Prospectus writer whose dad was an orthopedic surgeon or something and he would write about injuries mostly, but they’ve been promoting the idea that health is the sixth tool for 20 years.  

 

 

[kevwun 16097]

The problem with players like Springer who had strikeout issues throughout their career is that once the bat speed starts to go, the end comes quick.

Edited 2 hours ago by kevwun

[Snake Diggity 4678]

10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Oh yeah, of course.  The question is whether there’s a way to obtain discounted Wins taking older players and using them in unusual ways.  A more common variation of this would be moving a mediocre starter to closer where they can pump velocity better in short stints.  
 

We haven’t really seen this tried much with position players, maybe because it doesn’t work, rosters are too short, etc.  If I was trying to dream up how it might look, however, I would start with someone who was a terrific athlete like Springer and/ or someone who can’t stay healthy like Brantley.  I don’t follow the Dodgers much but I think they attempted a variation of this idea with Justin Turner.  
 

I can’t recall the Baseball Prospectus writer whose dad was an orthopedic surgeon or something and he would write about injuries mostly, but they’ve been promoting the idea that health is the sixth tool for 20 years.  

 

 

Luhnow was saying toward the end of his tenure that injury prevention/recovery was going to be the next arena where teams found a competitive advantage.  Doesn’t look like it’s happened yet.  But I would imagine any team that could find a secret solution to having pitchers constantly throw heat and spin without tearing a UCL would be big winners.

[LCHorn 2739]

8 minutes ago, kevwun said:

The problem with players like Springer who had strikeout issues throughout their career is that once the bat speed starts to go, the end comes quick.

I agree that’s a presumption that gets repeated by sports media, and it seems intuitively true.  Fangraphs (I think) did an article last season on Justin Turner and made a case that his bat speed was shit but he made it work because he was so selective about which pitches to swing at.  
 

At the time I read it, Bregman was off to his usual slow start and I wondered if the same thing was happening to him (let’s recall that the exit velocity stats have never favored Bregman and I presume it’s partially bat speed driven).  
 

If you look at Springers stats, the eye is holding up and if his contact could improve enough to raise his batting average by 50 points he’s probably a fringe all-star (I’m not equipped to evaluate defense and if he’s fallen off a lot there I wouldn’t opine).  

[kevwun 16097]

Bregman has a good eye and contact ability, he will age better.  Springer has problems swinging and missing.  Losing bat speed will hurt him much worse.

[David Dennison 19316]

If Bregman gets off to a slow start in NY or Boston, his interactions with the local press should be interesting.

[Scraps 13698]

Jfc no on Springer. Some of you need to put down the crack pipes

[texashorne 1180]

57 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

If Bregman gets off to a slow start in NY or Boston, his interactions with the local press should be interesting.

If he's ever visited this thread he'll think nothing of it. 

[Wulaw Horn 19517]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Oh yeah, of course.  The question is whether there’s a way to obtain discounted Wins taking older players and using them in unusual ways.  A more common variation of this would be moving a mediocre starter to closer where they can pump velocity better in short stints.  
 

We haven’t really seen this tried much with position players, maybe because it doesn’t work, rosters are too short, etc.  If I was trying to dream up how it might look, however, I would start with someone who was a terrific athlete like Springer and/ or someone who can’t stay healthy like Brantley.  I don’t follow the Dodgers much but I think they attempted a variation of this idea with Justin Turner.  
 

I can’t recall the Baseball Prospectus writer whose dad was an orthopedic surgeon or something and he would write about injuries mostly, but they’ve been promoting the idea that health is the sixth tool for 20 years.  

 

 

Heyward might be a decent partner for a year to try with springer. He still had a little juice left and he’s opposite handed. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19357]

16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Meyers to Toronto for springer and 10M
Tucker to Cubs for Paredes and OF

bregman walks 

Framber for Correa. 
Pena for a solid 3. 
sign Walker. 
diaz/walker/altuve/correa/paredes/cubs OF/ Chas/LHH platoon guy/Springer/Yordan 

6 plus bats, 3 average guys 

brown/arrighetti/pitcher from Pena trade/blanco/garcia/blubaugh/LMJ/ Javier back as a late season bullpen guy. 
trade Presley. 
Thats a net financial push with all those moves. 
you are competitive through yordans contract expiring in 4 years. You have some guys in the minor leagues that might be ok coming up. You don’t have any money on the books past 2028. 

 

Worrying about the roster four years from now is dumb.  Who tf knows which players are going to blow out their arms, forget how to hit, get popped for beating the shit out of their old lady, etc?