24/25 Astros Offseason thread

[LCHorn 2,750]

7 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

 

First off, I appreciate you feeding my news addiction.  
 

Other hand, you deserve permaban for posting something from that moron.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

23 minutes ago, Mitch Hedberg said:

 

Fucking Ortiz is worthless. Expect it to not happen and if it does not be cubs or yanks. 

[Ojo Rojo 2,053]

Seems like people are missing one important variable in a trade involving Tucker.  If you don't trade him, you get him for a season. It's not like we get nothing if we don't trade him.  We get a season of him playing on our team.  I do worry about the future, but the way this shit cycles, there's no way to keep a window open forever. Frankly, it's a miracle ours has stayed open this long.  While your window is open you are either a holder or a buyer.  Buying free agents with huge contracts is not the way.  You just simply cannot pay your way out of your window closing due to aging and regression. Keep Tucker, let him walk next year.  Let Bregman walk. Don't trade Framber.  Win the whole fucking thing in 2025. When the window is actually closing, unload every player with value for prospects (except Altuve), lose a fuckton of games and get several years of high draft picks and build it back up from there.

Edited December 12 by Ojo Rojo

[Mitch Hedberg 2,117]

19 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

First off, I appreciate you feeding my news addiction.  
 

Other hand, you deserve permaban for posting something from that moron.

Duly noted and understood. I had reservations myself. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

11 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Seems like people are missing one important variable in a trade involving Tucker.  If you don't trade him, you get him for a season. It's not like we get nothing if we don't trade him.  We get a season of him playing on our team.  I do worry about the future, but the way this shit cycles, there's no way to keep a window open forever. Frankly, it's a miracle ours has stayed open this long.  While your window is open you are either a holder or a buyer.  Buying free agents with huge contracts is not the way.  You just simply cannot pay your way out of your window closing due to aging and regression. Keep Tucker, let him walk next year.  Let Bregman walk. Don't trade Framber.  Win the whole fucking thing in 2025. When the window is actually closing, unload every player with value for prospects (except Altuve), lose a fuckton of games and get several years of high draft picks and build it back up from there.

I don’t hate this idea either. 
you can even jump start a rebuild with cash ala the Mets when you decide to trade away assets. 
Hader 3/60 could get dealt for not much. Hader +40M gets you a couple top 100 prospects. Rinse and repeat as a for example. It doesn’t have to be as bleak as it was last time. If you take your shot now and fail and then decide you have to pull the cord because you aren’t good enough. 

[LCHorn 2,750]

33 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Keep Tucker, let him walk next year.  Let Bregman walk

If we’re going all in on ‘25 we have to resign Bregman and anyone else that can add wins to this team.  

[HtownHorn 15,238]

1 hour ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Seems like people are missing one important variable in a trade involving Tucker.  If you don't trade him, you get him for a season. It's not like we get nothing if we don't trade him.  We get a season of him playing on our team.  I do worry about the future, but the way this shit cycles, there's no way to keep a window open forever. Frankly, it's a miracle ours has stayed open this long.  While your window is open you are either a holder or a buyer.  Buying free agents with huge contracts is not the way.  You just simply cannot pay your way out of your window closing due to aging and regression. Keep Tucker, let him walk next year.  Let Bregman walk. Don't trade Framber.  Win the whole fucking thing in 2025. When the window is actually closing, unload every player with value for prospects (except Altuve), lose a fuckton of games and get several years of high draft picks and build it back up from there.

This team has too many holes to win in 2025 even with Bregman, Tucker, and Framber. Resgining Bregman and keeping Tucker and Framber also mean that the window shuts after 2025 for a long fucking period, i.e. the end of Altuve and Bregman's contract while also watching Alvarez, Brown, and Abreu leave when their team control is over.

I am sure Luhnow had a plan, but we are now on GM #2 since him and the owner if fucking meddling too much to see the forest through the trees.

Correa and Springer should have been traded for prospects just like they were doing with Tucker and Framber when it was clear their money demands where going to be more than what the Astros were willing to pay.

[David Dennison 19,518]

I feel bad for being happy with four pennants and two championships.

[Ojo Rojo 2,053]

14 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

This team has too many holes to win in 2025 even with Bregman, Tucker, and Framber. Resgining Bregman and keeping Tucker and Framber also mean that the window shuts after 2025 for a long fucking period, i.e. the end of Altuve and Bregman's contract while also watching Alvarez, Brown, and Abreu leave when their team control is over.

I am sure Luhnow had a plan, but we are now on GM #2 since him and the owner if fucking meddling too much to see the forest through the trees.

Correa and Springer should have been traded for prospects just like they were doing with Tucker and Framber when it was clear their money demands where going to be more than what the Astros were willing to pay.

You just have to get to the playoffs; then anything can happen.  Last season was fucked by injuries and weirdness.  This team still fucks, even without Bregman.  If all of our pitchers stay healthy then we have a chance to have the best staff in MLB.  You either buy, sell or hold.  Crane doesn't give out long, huge contracts. By and large, Crane holds. I don't disagree with that approach.  Extend your guys early, let your too expensive soon-to-be-old players walk, build the farm, add free agent pieces. It can work.

[Ojo Rojo 2,053]

50 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

If we’re going all in on ‘25 we have to resign Bregman and anyone else that can add wins to this team.  

Nah. Bregman has typically started slow.  Next season we would know if we're buying or selling (or holding) by the time Bregman would have gotten his head out of his ass.  Pick up a good 3B before the deadline if Whitcomb ain't it if we're a playoff team.

[ChickenSandwich 9,950]

24 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

You just have to get to the playoffs; then anything can happen.  Last season was fucked by injuries and weirdness.  This team still fucks, even without Bregman.  If all of our pitchers stay healthy then we have a chance to have the best staff in MLB.  You either buy, sell or hold.  Crane doesn't give out long, huge contracts. By and large, Crane holds. I don't disagree with that approach.  Extend your guys early, let your too expensive soon-to-be-old players walk, build the farm, add free agent pieces. It can work.

This team kind of sucked last season and struggled all year on offense and defense. The stress on the staff from always being in a close game also wore them out by the end of the year.
 

Our MVP was our division’s ineptitude 

[tx 3 putt 78,668]

9 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

This team kind of sucked last season and struggled all year on offense and defense. The stress on the staff from always being in a close game also wore them out by the end of the year.
 

Our MVP was our division’s ineptitude 

 

tucker’s injury 

losing multiple good pitchers 

1st, LF and CF were dead ends 

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

48 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

You just have to get to the playoffs; then anything can happen.  Last season was fucked by injuries and weirdness.  This team still fucks, even without Bregman.  If all of our pitchers stay healthy then we have a chance to have the best staff in MLB.  You either buy, sell or hold.  Crane doesn't give out long, huge contracts. By and large, Crane holds. I don't disagree with that approach.  Extend your guys early, let your too expensive soon-to-be-old players walk, build the farm, add free agent pieces. It can work.

It can. We’ve done a shitty job of extending our young guys early. I hope that changes. 

[David Dennison 19,518]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It can. We’ve done a shitty job of extending our young guys early. I hope that changes. 

You mean besides Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Javier, and McCullers?

[HtownHorn 15,238]

22 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

tucker’s injury 

losing multiple good pitchers 

1st, LF and CF were dead ends 

Even with Tucker healthy, you can't go into a season with Singleton, McCormick, and Meyers taking up 33% of your everyday lineup. That just isn't sustainable.

[tx 3 putt 78,668]

making moves !!!!!

 

[Ojo Rojo 2,053]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

This team kind of sucked last season and struggled all year on offense and defense. The stress on the staff from always being in a close game also wore them out by the end of the year.
 

Our MVP was our division’s ineptitude 

I think we finished in the top 5 in MLB in ERA and that was after a terrible start to the season, pitching-wise.

Offensively, Bregman's slow start contributed to the poor first half record.  You don't have to, and can't expect, all stars 1-9 in the lineup. Meyers was ok. Singleton was ok. Chaz had a terrible year. Ideally we need one more quality bat at either LF or 1B.

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

11 hours ago, David Dennison said:

You mean besides Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez, Javier, and McCullers?

Fair. We didn’t extend any of them early where we get all of their prime on 1 deal like the Braves, rays, Mariners and some others have done. They were all half measures with a couple years bought out, a couple years from FA. Risk adverse stuff from the club. We got Altuve entire prime because we extended him 3 times I think- but the others all went once and half measures. But, that is minimizing the fact that we did have some guys not walk along with those that did. 

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

Astros currently have the 5th best projected roster in the league.  6th best offense, 9th best pitching staff.  They are favored to win their division by 3 games.  Their team is still very good.  I think the vast majority of fans way underestimate how much impact the pitching injuries had.  They had 7 SP on the IL at one point and still won their division.  They also had the most negative impact player in the league in their lineup most days for a third of the season (Abreu).

The 2017 team won the goddam World Series with Mike fuckin Fiers leading the team in innings, Brad Peacock the #4 SP, and the corpse of Carlos Beltran getting 500 plate appearances.  The roster doesn’t have to be 2019-level to be a contender.

A total rebuild like what was done in 2011-2014 is not possible these days because of rules changes and how other teams are run.  Theres a draft lottery that makes it nigh impossible for a team to get 3 straight #1 picks.  Almost every team manipulates their draft pool to try to get overslot signings in later rounds (the Astros were the first to really do it in 2012).

Houstons best bet is to try to win as much as they can while Altuve and Alvarez are still productive.  They are going to have to rely on Dana Brown to draft/scout/develop their way to contention after 2025.  But this offseason they are in a good spot.  Shopping Tucker and Framber is them following the market.  If they can trade away a 4 win player (with 1 year left) and release a 0.5 win player to add a 3 win player (with 4 years left), a 3 win player (with 2 years left), and an elite prospect, that’s a good move for both 2025 and beyond.  And that’s the kind of package the Astros should be demanding.  If Houston ends up trading Tucker for a middling package like Gil and Rice alone, that’s not a good move.  But if they get something like Suzuki, Paredes, and Shaw, that’s a home run move.

[Bevo&Pevo 5,516]

Uh...what are the odds of Altuve staying healthy?  Then what?

[UTPhil2006 3,930]

2 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Uh...what are the odds of Altuve staying healthy?  Then what?

73.5%

[Bevo&Pevo 5,516]

2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

73.5%

better than 3.50

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

49 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Astros currently have the 5th best projected roster in the league.  6th best offense, 9th best pitching staff.  They are favored to win their division by 3 games.  Their team is still very good.  I think the vast majority of fans way underestimate how much impact the pitching injuries had.  They had 7 SP on the IL at one point and still won their division.  They also had the most negative impact player in the league in their lineup most days for a third of the season (Abreu).

The 2017 team won the goddam World Series with Mike fuckin Fiers leading the team in innings, Brad Peacock the #4 SP, and the corpse of Carlos Beltran getting 500 plate appearances.  The roster doesn’t have to be 2019-level to be a contender.

A total rebuild like what was done in 2011-2014 is not possible these days because of rules changes and how other teams are run.  Theres a draft lottery that makes it nigh impossible for a team to get 3 straight #1 picks.  Almost every team manipulates their draft pool to try to get overslot signings in later rounds (the Astros were the first to really do it in 2012).

Houstons best bet is to try to win as much as they can while Altuve and Alvarez are still productive.  They are going to have to rely on Dana Brown to draft/scout/develop their way to contention after 2025.  But this offseason they are in a good spot.  Shopping Tucker and Framber is them following the market.  If they can trade away a 4 win player (with 1 year left) and release a 0.5 win player to add a 3 win player (with 4 years left), a 3 win player (with 2 years left), and an elite prospect, that’s a good move for both 2025 and beyond.  And that’s the kind of package the Astros should be demanding.  If Houston ends up trading Tucker for a middling package like Gil and Rice alone, that’s not a good move.  But if they get something like Suzuki, Paredes, and Shaw, that’s a home run move.

Calling Tucker a 4 win player sort of minimizes him- he’s more like a 6 war player based upon track record and where he’s at in the aging curve (dead ass prime) next year (if healthy- which he always has been absent freak occurrence last year) with probably a chance to have an mvp type season. Sucks for him that last year might have been his mvp type career season (almost 5 war while missing half the season) but he gapped to get hurt. 
all that said- completely agree with your take. 

[Scraps 13,798]

8 minutes ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Uh...what are the odds of Altuve staying healthy? 

He has been healthy for 90%+ of the past 4 seasons except for getting hit on the hand so I would say pretty fucking high 

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

47 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Calling Tucker a 4 win player sort of minimizes him- he’s more like a 6 war player based upon track record and where he’s at in the aging curve (dead ass prime) next year (if healthy- which he always has been absent freak occurrence last year) with probably a chance to have an mvp type season. Sucks for him that last year might have been his mvp type career season (almost 5 war while missing half the season) but he gapped to get hurt. 
all that said- completely agree with your take. 

Meh.  He was worth 4.2 fwar last season.  Whether he’s a 4 win player or a 5 win player, it doesn’t affect my point.

[The Dog 44,854]

35 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Meh.  He was worth 4.2 fwar last season.  Whether he’s a 4 win player or a 5 win player, it doesn’t affect my point.

You're both right - Tucker's 162 game average is nearly 6 and that's what Wulaw is referring to I'd bet.

Overall the bigger picture is we're losing two 6 WAR players in the next two years (Bregman this year; Tucker the next) so getting something for Tucker right now makes a lot of sense IMHO. 

Just as long as Bagwell is as far away as possible from the transaction.

[Scraps 13,798]

Sounding more and more like Cubs soon.

Paredes and Cam Smith main guys

[LCHorn 2,750]

5 minutes ago, Scraps said:

Sounding more and more like Cubs soon.

Paredes and Cam Smith main guys

I’m underwhelmed if that’s the big pieces.  

[kevwun 16,437]

Yankees wouldn't give up Gil so that nixed them.  Bellinger is also in the Cubs package, but the Astros want the Cubs to eat part of his salary.  Suzuki was also talked about, but rumors he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause.  They didn't like the Phillies package which included Bohm and Castellanos.

 

Edited December 13 by kevwun

[The Dog 44,854]

 

[The Dog 44,854]

 

[UTPhil2006 3,930]

Where's Suzuki 

[The Dog 44,854]

3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Where's Suzuki 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2024/12/13/kyle-tucker-cubs-rumor/

Quote

(2) The rumored return for Kyle Tucker has pretty much always included Isaac Paredes (who’s a natural fit at that ballpark and would replace the exiting Alex Bregman), but has been a little murky thereafter. For example, are the Cubs seriously considering including Seiya Suzki (I extremely doubt it)? Would the Astros accept someone other than Matt Shaw (they better)? And, indeed, Cam Smith’s name has come up previously, though the Cubs had seemed reluctant.

Suffice it to say, Paredes + Smith strikes me as a steep (for the Cubs), but certainly fair (for the Astros) return for Kyle Tucker. So the fact that Levine specifically mentioned that as the deal makes me feel like the progress made was the following compromise: No, you can’t have Suzuki. But fine, we’ll include Smith. Or to put that even more plainly, if the Cubs are willing to do Paredes + Smith, I think that should be enough to get it done.

 

[UTPhil2006 3,930]

Better announce Bregman and Alonso after then 

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

Paredes and Smith to me is not enough.  Needs to include Suzuki or Bellinger (with Cubs eating some $) or another good prospect.

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Meh.  He was worth 4.2 fwar last season.  Whether he’s a 4 win player or a 5 win player, it doesn’t affect my point.

4.7 on BR in 78 games man. Calling that a 4 win player just isn’t accurate characterization of him. He’s really likely to be a 6 war player in his 1 year under club control. As I said- I agree with your valuation completely.

[HtownHorn 15,238]

25 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Paredes and Smith to me is not enough.  Needs to include Suzuki or Bellinger (with Cubs eating some $) or another good prospect.

Or a three team, where the Cubs are getting prospects from the Yankees for Bellinger and sending them to us.

Edited December 13 by HtownHorn

[David Dennison 19,518]

Does anyone here think Kyle Tucker plays for the Astros in 2025?

[Mo Horn 8,937]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Does anyone here think Kyle Tucker plays for the Astros in 2025?

Nope

[David Dennison 19,518]

I'm fine with the Cubs.

I don't want him playing for the Yankees. Same for Bregman.

[Ojo Rojo 2,053]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Does anyone here think Kyle Tucker plays for the Astros in 2025?

Me. Win in 2025.  If not happening, sell him at the deadline.

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

32 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Does anyone here think Kyle Tucker plays for the Astros in 2025?

I sort of do. It’s sort of the worst of all worlds (Bregman gone, pitching gone some, team worse and then Tucker leaving for nothing). So, it’s my fear and expectation I guess. 

[The Dog 44,854]

everyone is waiting for Bregman to make up his fucking mind. once he does things should happen quickly. 

[Scraps 13,798]

I think it is the opposite.  We need to make up our mind if we are trading Tucker or not.  That is probably holding up any signing of Bregman with the Astros.....which in turn is holding up him signing anywhere until he can eliminate the Astros fully.  

Edited December 13 by Scraps

[The Dog 44,854]

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,579]

32 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

Bowden is the gm version (fucking moron) of Ortiz. 

[tx 3 putt 78,668]

making moves ….

 

[Scraps 13,798]

Morosi 5 mins ago

[The Dog 44,854]

 

[Scraps 13,798]