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24/25 Astros Offseason thread

Wulaw Horn

By Wulaw Horn
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Scraps
Scraps

Once again , thank you Nolan Arenado

Storm the Field
Storm the Field

Lifelong Astros diehard here, but I might have to find a new team with a less annoying fanbase.  I'd have been much more pissed at keeping Tucker and letting him walk for nothing this offseason t

Jshep34
Jshep34

I'm still just excited and happy I lived during this era of astros baseball after 35+ plus years of misery. Don't care what they do. I got to watch my team hang 2 world series titles in my life and s

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Dutchrudder

Dutchrudder 11240

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Some interesting info on the Arenado deal that didn't happen. It states the Cardinals would take on 5m per year for 3 years, bringing the cost down to ~15m per year. I would guess the Cardinals would take on more if the right prospect was included in the deal, but it won't matter if he won't waive the NTC for them. If they were pursuing the Arenado deal, then there probably is no hope for Bregman coming back. I don't think they make that trade offer until they know they are out of the Bregman sweepstakes. It would be nice to get at least one of them and slide Paredes over to 1st to shore up the infield, then go get an OF like Santander, but I don't think that's going to happen. This will be an above average team next year, but not a real contender as is. Need a few more bats to really make it happen. 

 

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Nolan Arenado Reportedly Uses No-Trade Clause To Block Deal With Astros

The Cardinals are known to be looking to trade Nolan Arenado this offseason, but the talks are complicated by the fact that he has a full no-trade clause in his contract. Per a report today from Mark Feinsand, John Denton and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Cards and Astros were in discussion on a trade to send him to Houston before Arenado informed St. Louis that he would not be waiving his no-trade clause to join the Astros. Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic provided some additional details.

The Cardinals are planning for 2025 to be sort of a reset year, which has put Arenado’s name into trade rumors for the past few months. At the winter meetings last week, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that he intended to try to line up a deal. The idea would seem to be mutually beneficial. Arenado turns 34 in March and could get a chance to go to a club with more immediate aims of playing competitive baseball. The Cards would save some money and open up playing time to get looks at less established players like Nolan Gorman or Jordan Walker.

But as mentioned, Arenado gets a say in the matter via that no-trade clause. It was reported last week that he would approve a trade to six teams: the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, or Red Sox. It wasn’t clear if that was an exhaustive list but the Astros weren’t on it. Per today’s report from Woo and Rome, that list originally included the Astros but they were removed, perhaps due to the recent Kyle Tucker trade and uncertainty around the Alex Bregman situation.

Speaking of Bregman, he has long been the third baseman in Houston, though there are some signs they are planning on moving on. In the years leading up to his free agency, they repeatedly said that they wanted to re-sign him but no deal ever came together. He is still unsigned but there was reportedly a gap in the negotiations, with the club offering him $156MM over six years while he was looking for something more in the $200MM range.

On top of that, the Astros made a big trade last week which arguably got them a Bregman replacement for the hot corner. In sending Tucker to the Cubs, the Astros got three players back, one of whom was Isaac Paredes. While Paredes has played all four infield positions, he’s played third base far more than the other three spots combined.

But in the aftermath of that trade, it was reported that the Astros were emerging as “a serious suitor” for Arenado. Since Arenado is renowned for his third base defense, the plan would presumably be to move Paredes over to first base, since that’s also a target area for Houston. Though it appears Arenado isn’t on board, which puts that whole plan on ice for now.

It’s not clear what the full deal was or why Arenado decided to put the kibosh on it. All reporting has suggested that winning is Arenado’s primary motivation with his theoretical next team and the Astros would seemingly fit the bill. Despite just trading Tucker, they are still planning to compete again in 2025 and have been one of the winningest clubs of the past decade. Perhaps his decision has something to do with geography, the Astros sign-stealing scandal or the Astros-Cardinals data breach scandal, though those would be just guesses. Woo and Rome’s report suggests that he wants more time to make his decision and this isn’t final.

Aside from Arenado blocking the deal, the most notable item in today’s reporting is that the Cardinals were apparently willing to eat money. Arenado is going to make $74MM over the next three years but $10MM is covered by the Rockies as part of the trade that sent him from Colorado to St. Louis. There are also some deferrals, which apparently drop the present day value of what’s owed from $64MM to about $60MM, per the MLB.com column. But the Cards were willing to include $15-20MM so that the Astros would only be on the hook for $40-45MM of that. The Athletic says the Cards were willing to eat $5MM per season for the rest of the deal, or exactly $15MM.

That’s a sensible position for the Cards to take. While lowering the payroll is a goal for their planned reset year, it’s already projected to be well below their recent spending levels. RosterResource projects the 2025 payroll to be almost $40MM below 2024 levels. Trading Arenado, even if they eat some of the money, would only widen that gap while allowing the club to get a more notable return in terms of young talent.

It also may have helped the Astros stay under the competitive balance tax, with RosterResource currently putting their number at $225MM. If they were to take on roughly three years and $45MM of Arenado’s deal, that would add $15MM to their number and put them right around the $241MM base threshold.

Now the major questions will be about what comes next for each club. Both reports suggest that the Astros and Cardinals will continue having discussions, but it’s possible that they may have to pivot to other options while they are still available, depending on how much time Arenado wants to make up his mind about Houston. The Astros could look to restart negotiations with Bregman or pivot to a first baseman like Christian Walker. The Cardinals could try to negotiate a new deal with one of the other clubs that Arenado is perhaps less hesitant about joining.

Arenado was an MVP finalist as recently as a couple of years ago but his offense has dipped in recent years. In 2022, he hit 30 home runs and slashed .293/.358/.533 for a 149 wRC+. When combined with his excellent glovework, FanGraphs credited him with 7.2 wins above replacement that year. But over the past two years, he has hit .269/.320/.426 for a 104 wRC+, barely above league average. He’s still been worth close to 3 fWAR annually in that time thanks to the defense, but it’s obviously a concerning drop. Most of his home runs come to the pull side, so playing in front of Houston’s Crawford Boxes could be a good fit for him, but he would have to want that.

 

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/nolan-arenado-has-reportedly-blocked-trade-to-astros.html

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runthebone

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From Passan's hot stove summary, some relevant parts:

 

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[Arenado] is not the only All-Star on the trade market. San Diego general manager A.J. Preller, always willing to consider creative deals, could move infielders Jake Cronenworth or Luis Arraez. With a paucity of on-the-dirt free agents, either would bring back a premium. Chicago White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. is owed $15 million this year with a pair of $20 million club options after that, and whether it's this winter or at the July trade deadline, he is widely expected to be dealt.

For teams in search of an outfield bat, the Mets' Starling Marte, Cleveland's Lane Thomas, San Francisco's Mike Yastrzemski and the Los Angeles Angels' Taylor Ward are there to be had. Other options include Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor -- whose availability, along with that of San Francisco's LaMonte Wade Jr. and Texas' Nathaniel Lowe, further muddies a crowded first-base free agent market -- Angels utilityman Luis Rengifo and Minnesota catcher Christian Vazquez.

 

Correa would waive his NTC for us, I'm sure.

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Some of the biggest names bandied about come with complications. Three-time All-Star Luis Castillo has been dangled by Seattle in multiple scenarios but wields a no-trade clause. Same with Carlos Correa, owed $128 million over the last four years of his deal with Minnesota.

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Right-hander Corbin Burnes and third baseman Alex Bregman are the two players left who fit this description, each with distinct markets that include some crossover. They also share an agent (Scott Boras) and a likely signing date after Christmas.

The cost to sign Burnes is likely to exceed Fried's deal, and Bregman's payday could be in the $200 million range as well. The markets for both players remain strong because a number of teams still have big money to spend. Among those with payroll flexibility: Toronto, San Francisco, Boston, Baltimore, Detroit, Houston and both New York teams.

 

Alonso "lower top tier" free agent:

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On one hand, Alonso's consistent production -- he plays all the time, has averaged 42 home runs and 110 RBIs in his five full big league seasons, and would fit in the heart of the batting order for every team in baseball -- is unimpeachable. On the other, his profile frightens teams: a 30-year-old, right-handed-hitting and -throwing first baseman. Teams are hesitant to give him a long-term deal. At the same time, they see great value in adding him for the next few years. The Mets could still bring him back. The Yankees could enter the fray more aggressively. Sometimes, markets just take time to build, but the risk in waiting is that they never do.

 

Walker:

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Temperature: Cold

The pipes are frozen on the first-base market. Beyond Alonso, Christian Walker is the top available choice, and he would love to get a fourth year. So far, teams have balked at going more than three. Paul Goldschmidt and Carlos Santana, both in their late 30s, will require one-year deals and have held firm on prices teams simply haven't been willing to pay yet. Anthony Rizzo is another option and, like Goldschmidt and Santana, brings excellent makeup to a clubhouse.

The teams in need of a first baseman include some of the biggest in baseball: the Yankees, Mets, Astros, Arizona and Seattle. But as long as teams believe Naylor and Wade are available, they can stand firm on free agents and threaten to -- or actually -- pivot to trades.

 

Some real douchebag options:

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Corner outfielders

Temperature: Frigid

This is the most confusing group considering that the list of teams that have inquired about corner outfielders includes nearly half the teams in baseball: the Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, Padres, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Giants, Angels, Astros, Reds, Pirates and Royals

There aren't enough free agents to fill the open spots. While some teams could bow out via other moves -- if the Yankees sign a first baseman, for example, Bellinger will be a full-time outfielder and negate the need for another -- plenty have the incentive to lock in on a target and go full pursuit.

At the front of the group are Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander. Both are coming off excellent seasons that led to being tagged with a qualifying offer. Hernández's return to the Dodgers has always felt logical, but with his free agency festering longer than anticipated, a surprise team could jump into the mix. The interest in Santander has been limited enough that, despite coming off a 44-home run season, he could get squeezed. Also looking for a deal in the three-year-plus range: Jurickson Profar, who is coming off a .280/.380/.459 season that included a career-best 24 home runs.

Veteran Joc Pederson is regarded as an elite platoon option against right-handed pitching as well as a top clubhouse presence, and he's primed to snag a multiyear deal. Among the candidates for one-year agreements: Max Kepler, Alex Verdugo, Randal Grichuk (a lefty killer), Jesse Winker, Mark Canha, Austin Hays, Manuel Margot, Ramon Laureano, and Harrison Bader and Kiké Hernandez, both of whom play center.

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19579

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On the corner OF list I see about 10 names that would work for houston. Getting 2 shouldn’t be a problem. Roll with something like Winker and Goldy on 1 year deals totaling 20M, Santander at 4/80 or whatever that looks like (3/65? 3/70?) trade Presley for a rosin bag, Trade Framber for 3 prospects, move Montero at the deadline (when he’s only owed 4M but provides 11.5M in salary relief by attaching a top 15 ish prospect, get under the tax line, retool for the future with no bad money past 25 and go fucking win the division and hope you get lucky in the playoffs. 
let’s go!  

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3930

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31 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

On the corner OF list I see about 10 names that would work for houston. Getting 2 shouldn’t be a problem. Roll with something like Winker and Goldy on 1 year deals totaling 20M, Santander at 4/80 or whatever that looks like (3/65? 3/70?) trade Presley for a rosin bag, Trade Framber for 3 prospects, move Montero at the deadline (when he’s only owed 4M but provides 11.5M in salary relief by attaching a top 15 ish prospect, get under the tax line, retool for the future with no bad money past 25 and go fucking win the division and hope you get lucky in the playoffs. 
let’s go!  

Who's taking Montero the Yomuri Giants?

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 78668

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51 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

On the corner OF list I see about 10 names that would work for houston. Getting 2 shouldn’t be a problem. Roll with something like Winker and Goldy on 1 year deals totaling 20M, Santander at 4/80 or whatever that looks like (3/65? 3/70?) trade Presley for a rosin bag, Trade Framber for 3 prospects, move Montero at the deadline (when he’s only owed 4M but provides 11.5M in salary relief by attaching a top 15 ish prospect, get under the tax line, retool for the future with no bad money past 25 and go fucking win the division and hope you get lucky in the playoffs. 
let’s go!  

 

im not sold on 4 years of santander 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19579

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16 hours ago, Dutchrudder said:

Could the Astros trade Montero, send him with cash to cover his cost, and remove him from their luxury tax calculation? There are plenty of teams that never get close to the tax line that could take him for cheap. 

No. If we send money it counts toward us. We’d have to send prospects with that cash equivalent. 

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The Dog

The Dog 44854

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/astros-sign-christian-walker.html

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Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’d cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere. As for the D-backs, they’d receive a comp pick after the first round as long as Walker signs for a guarantee more than $50MM, which also seems likely.

 

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ckhorn

ckhorn 226

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2 hours ago, The Dog said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/astros-sign-christian-walker.html

 

This is a lot of draft capital for player that we will paying in his 34 through 37 years. Hopefully we are finally due on successful FA signing. Does it seem like Manfred is still trying to fuck us here. We have to give up a 2 and 5, but only get a 4 for Bregman. This seems Sucks.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5366

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6 minutes ago, ckhorn said:

This is a lot of draft capital for player that we will paying in his 34 through 37 years. Hopefully we are finally due on successful FA signing. Does it seem like Manfred is still trying to fuck us here. We have to give up a 2 and 5, but only get a 4 for Bregman. This seems Sucks.

It's based on where you are in the revenue/payroll pecking order. We were over the luxury threshold last year, so higher cost to sign a QO player/lower return to have a QO player sign elsewhere.

Edited by Storm the Field
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